1、GSMAi Global Mobile Trends 2020 New decade, new industry? The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and inter

2、net companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website a

3、t Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zi

4、mbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategi

5、c decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. 3The Big 5 GLOBAL

6、 MOBILE TRENDS The Big 5 Trends shaping the future of mobile and TMT Predictions for the next 10 years View from the top Future of devices Implications of the 5G era Enterprise IoT and Industry 4.0 Media and content Financial performance Regional outlooks 4The Big 5 Telecoms (mobile + fi xed)Non-tel

7、ecoms (pay-TV + other services)Total Amrica Mvil Telstra AT by 2025, smartphone penetration will reach 80% globally, driven by India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico and a host of fast followers in Africa. New people, new behaviours, different dynamics The fact that 70% of smartphones will run on LTE sp

8、eaks to the influence of an impending mobile internet generation in youthful, non-English speaking markets. Unlike in the US and Europe where operators lost out in digital value creation to big tech, places like Africa are opportunities for operators to leverage the strong brand recognition and posi

9、tive associations with providing essential services. Global installed base on mobile operator networks Billions of devices connected to a cellular network. Data-only devices include cellular tablets, dongles and modems Source GSMA Intelligence 2 Smartphones continue their inexorable rise in the deve

10、loping world SP Smartphone 6The Big 5 Apple Apple Google GoogleAmazonOther Android Samsung SamsungHTCOculusSony Non-Samsung Android Smartphones VR headsets Smart speakers 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% New platform wars emerge Apple and Googles dominance in the smartphone era has long been entren

11、ched. As new device categories (whether smart speakers or VR headsets) attempt to find a place in homes, a renewed set of platform wars is in its early stages. The home laboratory for AI and immersive reality Whereas the smartphone wars centred on the app economy, the new battleground is in AI devel

12、opment and a push towards immersive reality. The competitive landscape is also much more crowded. In VR, Oculus (Facebook), Sony, Google and Samsung are all involved. Microsoft is a sleeper because its ambition is not in hardware but rather in mixed reality, which would make VR obsolete. Apple is fo

13、r now not a factor, placing it at risk of falling behind as iPhone sales continue to slow. Smart speakers are a window into AI development. Amazons position with Echo devices is a worrying sign for competitors. There is a clear strategy of vertically integrating its e-commerce and Prime business, an

14、d it is well ahead in third-party apps that work with Alexa. Market shares Source GSMA Intelligence Consumer Survey (2018 and 2019), Strategy Analytics, Super Data Research 3 New platform wars on the horizon centre on AI and immersive reality Smartphones Q1 2018; smart speakers and VR headsets 2019

15、7The Big 5 Pragmatic reasons for change Over the last 10 years, the mobile network model has moved from owning everything to sharing infrastructure, in an effort to take cost out of the business in a low- growth environment. 5G brings further complexity and new ways of operating a network with or wi

16、thout licensed spectrum. The unbundled network breaks down entry barriers Private networks to service enterprises are a prime example. Telcos are, in theory, the default provider but in practice there are multiple options, from enterprise own-builds using reserved or shared spectrum (e.g. CBRS in th

17、e US, Germany) to edge cloud infrastructure from AWS and Microsoft. For operators, this means: infrastructure competition becomes harder, not easier capex will need to be spent more selectively, particularly for small cells frenemy-style partnerships with adjacent sector competitors become the norm

18、rather than the exception. New types of network, new types of network operator 4 Network innovation has never been greater as we enter the 5G era Full stack (traditional) HybridPrivate networkNeutral host Active VAS MNOMNO Enterprise MNO Cloud MNO Hotspot operator Equipment vendor Other Billing Core

19、 Backhaul RAN SpectrumLicensedLicensed Licensed Dedicated Unlicensed (5G NR-U) Licensed Unlicensed Passive Ancillary (power, cooling) MNO MNO Towerco Enterprise MNO Cloud MNO Hotspot operator Equipment vendor Other Macro or small cells SitesEnterprise Land or venue operator 8The Big 5 Geopolitical t

20、ensions boil over The onset of advanced technologies such as AI, 5G, edge computing, IoT and autonomous vehicles has contributed to a return of geopolitical tension not seen since the satellite star wars of the 1960s. The rise of the US and China typifies this trend, though with opposing political d

21、ynamics. Scale and state-craft China has put huge state investments into its national champion companies to help cement its position as a global hub of advanced computing and manufacturing. By contrast, the US has pursued a trade war to the detriment of its own tech groups. The net effect is signifi

22、cant consolidation of power and influence in two countries, which will continue over the next decade. For Europe, this puts renewed importance on governments supporting their own telco and tech groups, be that through relaxing regulations, lowering spectrum prices, providing co-investment or other m

23、eans. Source GSMA Intelligence, UK government 5 The US and China pull away as the two global tech powerhouses ChinaUS 18% 4% 16% 24% 16% 23% 38% 12% 46% 25% AI patents (2017) 5G connections (2025) 5G capex (201925) Nominal GDP ($bn PPP) Population 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% US and China: share of 9Pred

24、ictions for the next 10 years GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS Predictions for the next 10 years The Big 5 View from the top Future of devices Implications of the 5G era Enterprise IoT and Industry 4.0 Media and content Financial performance Regional outlooks 10Predictions for the next 10 years “ We always over

25、estimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” Bill Gates 5 years by 2025 1 One of the GAFA companies is broken up 2 AR eye glasses reach the mass market with a form factor from at least one global OEM 3 5G becomes the first g

26、eneration in the history of mobile to have a bigger impact on enterprise than consumers 4 Private enterprise networks explode and become competition battleground between telcos and cloud companies 5 Health wearables become part of the solution to over- pressed public health systems. Over 50% of peop

27、le in high income countries aged 55+ own a connected health device prescribed by their doctor (2019 = 5%) 10 years by 2030 1 The worlds first autonomous mobile network becomes commercially active 2 Global internet penetration inflects to reach 90% (2019 = 50%) 3 Data hubs established to facilitate p

28、ublic access to commercial IoT data 4 China becomes worlds largest mobile market by revenue (US = $247bn, China = $163bn in 2018) 5 Autonomous vehicles take hold. 35% of annual new car sales in the US are Level 4 by 2030 11View from the top View from the top State of play and outlook for mobile acce

29、ss GLOBAL MOBILE TRENDS The Big 5 Predictions for the next 10 years Future of devices Implications of the 5G era Enterprise IoT and Industry 4.0 Media and content Financial performance Regional outlooks 12View from the top Source GSMA Intelligence 5 billion people with an active mobile Population, m

30、illion Even the growth markets are starting to cool Net growth in mobile subscribers, million No mobileMobile 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 202520192014 70% 67% 59% EuropeChinaIndiaNigeria/Indonesia/Pakistan US 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 202025201520201015 38 115 61 64 194 155 436 241 98 Mobile phon

31、e usage stands at 5.2 billion individuals worldwide, 67% of the population. Growth has cooled over the past five years, something that will continue as China, India and other fast-growing countries such as Nigeria reach saturation in their urban populations. Rural Africa and the Indian sub-continent

32、 are the final frontiers but also the hardest to reach. An expected 30% of the world will remain unconnected in 2025. Mobile reaches two thirds of the global population; further gains hard to win 13View from the top Source GSMA IntelligencePC-only users not shown because they represent a very small

33、share of the population (54 million in 2019) Global population, million +1bn Internet mobile onlyInternet PC and mobileNo internet 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1,683 2,756 3,650 202520192014 Most of the growing base of mobile internet users (largely from the fast growing markets) are mobile-only

34、with no PC access. This means a huge expansion of the app and digital content economy to non-English speaking markets. Streaming is at the forefront of this trend, with Netflixs recent launch of a stripped back, mobile-only tariff in India a sign of things to come. The next billion are the mobile-on

35、ly generation 14View from the top Source GSMA IntelligenceSP = Smartphone. Data-only devices include cellular tablets, dongles and modems. Installed base on mobile operator networks Billions 2015 Featurephone 3.8 4G SP 0.9 2G SP 0.5 Data-only 0.6 3G SP 1.4 4G SP 3.7 3G SP 1.2 2G SP 0.2 Data-only 0.8

36、 Featurephone 2.0 20252019 4G SP 4.7 Featurephone 1.0 5G SP 1.5 Data-only 0.7 3G SP 0.9 Smartphone penetration has reached 65% worldwide, reflecting falling device costs and cellular data prices. The upward trend will continue as Android manufacturers permeate the legacy 2G and 3G base. By 2025, we

37、expect adoption to reach 80%. Most smartphones will run on LTE, with the 1.5 billion 5G smartphones clustered in early-adopter countries, of which the US and China are the biggest. Powered by rising smartphone penetration 15View from the top Source GSMA Intelligence 0 5 10 15 20 25 dtacDiGiMegaFonAi

38、rtelTele2JioAISMaxisCelcomDNA ThailandMalaysiaRussiaIndiaLithuaniaIndiaThailandMalaysiaMalaysiaFinland 9.8 10.4 10.911.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 12.0 15.2 24.3 Biggest users of mobile data: not the usual suspects GB per customer per month, based on operators who have reported data traffic figures Lost in the

39、 current 5G hype is the mass migration of customers to 4G in Asia, Latin America and parts of Eastern Europe. Across a range of operators in countries including Malaysia, India and Thailand, average monthly data usage has surpassed 10 GB. This is significantly higher than was seen during the US and

40、European wave of 4G take-up during 201114. Even now, customers of H3G UK (well known for unlimited tariffs) average around 7 GB. India can partly be explained by Jios launch and subsequent response by competitors with very low 4G prices. There is huge pent-up demand for mobile data that is only in i

41、ts early stages of being felt, presenting opportunities (price premiums) and risks (traffic overload) to operators. Mass migration to 4G is triggering a data explosion 16View from the top Source GSMA Intelligence 4%4%1% Sub-Saharan Africa South AsiaMENALatin America in the US, ownership increased 10

42、ppts to 27% in 2019. This reflects the speaker being a strategic control point for Amazon, Google and Apple to entrench their ecosystems in the home. Smartphones still the centre of gravity amid huge variety of devices 23Future of devices The languishing performance of Apple over the last two years

43、reflects a wider malaise in the smartphone market. People used to upgrade every two years to the latest new device. However, the pulling back of carrier subsidies, disposable income pressures and general stagnation in smartphone design have caused consumers to delay upgrading, with replacement rates

44、 now at three to four years. As a result, global smartphone sales are in decline. In H1 2019, the drop was 4%. China had been bucking the trend but even it has felt the slowdown; of the major global OEMs, only Huawei grew unit sales in H1 compared to the prior year. 5G provides marketing firepower b

45、ut is unlikely to reignite sales unit growth in the near term until use cases beyond faster speeds (such as AR/VR) materialise. Source GSMA Intelligence, Statista, company reports H1 2019OthersXiaomiAppleSamsungHuaweiH1 2018 674 644 +24-24 -25 -3 -2 Smartphone growth has all but run out Shipments, m

46、illion With smartphone sales in decline, can 5G reignite the flame? 24Future of devices 51% 42% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 78% 91% 56% 35% 8% 27% 9% Desktop computer Gaming console Laptop Smartphone Tablet Smart TV Dongle Smart speaker VR headset Personal computing Smart devices AI and immersion US hou

47、sehold ownershipi (%) Launch year of device category 20202000062004200220004821980 Source GSMA Intelligence Consumer Insights Survey 2019. US only Device innovation cycles are shortening as third wave sets in 25Future of devices Source GSMA Inte

48、lligence Consumer Insights Survey 2019 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% USUKGermanyAustralia 201820192017 VR headset ownership Percentage of households VR continues to suffer from post- hype realities. Headset ownership has failed to grow from its initial promise, with household ownership around 5% in Eur

49、ope and 10% in the US. Expensive, clunky hardware and continued challenges with dizziness have not helped, but limited content libraries beyond gaming and lack of edge infrastructure are also to blame. Sports leagues and broadcasters are among those who continue to see VR as a means of boosting viewer interest. The challenge will be to convince pay-TV customers to pay more for VR broadcasts when they are already being pulled in the opposite direction towards cheaper and more flexible