1、Copyright 2020 GSM Association Mobile Economy 2020 The GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide fr

2、om Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players,

3、 to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topic

4、s. The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with almost 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent ind

5、ustry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA Contents Executive s

6、ummary2 The mobile market in numbers10 1.1A new decade begins as growth continues11 1.24G dominates as 5G begins to make its mark12 1.3Evolution of the digital consumer14 1.4Financials recover in 2019 and 2020, with modest growth out to 202516 Key trends shaping the mobile industry18 2.1A 5G reality

7、 check: learnings one year on19 2.2The telco of the future25 2.3IoT: the battle is on to connect the home and workplace30 2.4What else does the decade ahead have in store?36 Mobile contributing to economic growth and addressing social challenges 37 3.1Mobile contribution to economic growth38 3.2Expa

8、nding the benefits of mobile internet41 3.3Mobile delivering social impact45 Policies to accelerate digital development54 2 3 4 1 Executive Summary 5G learnings one year on 2019 was a pivotal year for 5G, as operators and enterprises began to stake their claim in the technology and consumers started

9、 to realise the benefits of the latest mobile generation: Operators: Operators are increasingly seeking ways to grow revenue and cut costs in a low-growth environment, which is made more complicated by the demanding requirements of 5G services (i.e. high speed, low latency and ultra- reliability). O

10、perators therefore need to evolve their networks (using innovations such as virtual RAN, edge networking and network automation) to meet the demands of the 5G era. They will also need to diversify their revenue streams (into areas such as pay TV, media/entertainment, advertising and IoT) to seek gro

11、wth beyond core telecoms services. Enterprises: While speed gains are a well-recognised benefit of 5G, other improvements (e.g. network slicing, edge computing and low-latency services) are not widely appreciated, with many companies believing that 4G remains good enough. Most of the key benefits fo

12、r enterprises wont come until standalone 5G is deployed. The challenge, therefore, is to lay the foundations now and start the conversations about what problems 5G can solve in the future. As this is a highly competitive area given the presence of Amazon, Microsoft, Google and other cloud companies,

13、 speed to market is an important factor. Consumers: Awareness and knowledge of 5G are both rising as hype makes way for reality. However, there is wide variation across the globe in terms of intentions to upgrade to 5G and the willingness to pay more for it. In general, consumers in South Korea, Chi

14、na and the Middle East tend to be the most willing to upgrade to 5G, while those in the US, Europe and Japan seem satisfied using 4G for the time being. 5G is still in its infancy though; as more tangible use cases are deployed, more consumers will appreciate the benefits of 5G. The Mobile Economy 2

15、020 Executive Summary 2 In 2019, 4G became the dominant mobile technology across the world with over 4 billion connections, accounting for 52% of total connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT). 4G connections will continue to grow for the next few years, peaking at just under 60% of global conn

16、ections by 2023. Meanwhile, 5G is gaining pace: it is now live in 24 markets; numerous 5G smartphones have been launched; and 5G awareness and the intention to upgrade among consumers are both on the rise. By 2025, 5G will account for 20% of global connections, with take-up particularly strong acros

17、s developed Asia, North America and Europe. To support this generational shift and further drive consumer engagement, operators are expected to invest around $1.1 trillion worldwide between 2020 and 2025 in mobile capex, roughly 80% of which will be in 5G networks. IoT will be an integral part of th

18、e 5G era. Between 2019 and 2025, the number of global IoT connections will more than double to almost 25 billion, while global IoT revenue will more than triple to $1.1 trillion. The smart home is a critical battleground, with fragmentation being a major challenge to integration and adoption. There

19、are, however, early signs that smart speakers could be at the centre of a smart home revolution in 2020. Despite some financial headwinds, the outlook for global mobile revenue remains stable. Following a stabilisation of pricing trends, particularly in Europe and India, and continued strong data gr

20、owth in emerging markets, total mobile revenues reached $1.03 trillion in 2019. Revenue will rise steadily at around 1% per year out to 2025, largely because of growing revenues in enterprise IoT segments and new 5G services. 4G rules, but 5G is ramping up By the end of 2019, 5.2 billion people subs

21、cribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the global population. Adding new subscribers is increasingly difficult as markets become saturated and the economics of reaching rural populations become more difficult to justify in a challenging financial climate for mobile operators. Despite this,

22、 there will be around 600 million new subscribers by 2025 mostly in India, China, Pakistan and Nigeria for a total of 5.8 billion subscribers to mobile services (70% of the global population). Mobile continues to make a significant contribution to the global economy. In 2019, mobile technologies and

23、 services generated $4.1 trillion of economic value added (4.7% of GDP) globally. This figure will approach $5 trillion (4.9% of GDP) by 2024 as countries increasingly benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services. Further ahead, 5

24、G technologies are expected to contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy between 2024 and 2034. Key sectors such as manufacturing/utilities (particularly in China) and professional/financial services (especially in MENA and North America) will benefit the most from the new technology. Growth is

25、 becoming harder to see, but its still there The Mobile Economy 2020 Executive Summary 3 The benefits of mobile are reaching further than ever The connectivity gap continues to close: almost 1 billion additional people have been covered by mobile broadband networks over the last five years. However,

26、 factors other than infrastructure are holding back the adoption of mobile internet, namely affordability, consumer readiness, and availability of locally relevant content and services. These barriers will slowly be overcome though, and by 2025 an additional 1.2 billion people will start using mobil

27、e internet for the first time, which will bring the total number of mobile internet subscribers globally to 5 billion (over 60% of the population). With this growth in connectivity, individuals are increasingly using mobile to access an array of life-enhancing services that contribute to and catalys

28、e the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In addition, the mobile industry is playing a key role in mitigating the catastrophic impacts of climate change, which threatens sustainable development everywhere. However, much more can be done to leverage the power of mobile and su

29、pport the delivery of the SDG 2030 targets. This includes helping people realise the full benefits of accessing health information, public services and digital payments, and leveraging new technologies to reduce pollution, improve resilience to climate change and increase energy efficiency. The Mobi

30、le Economy 2020 Executive Summary 4 Policies remain essential for accelerating digital development Mobile broadband generates vast benefits for society and the economy. However, the full potential of mobile technologies cannot be realised without the active participation of governments and regulator

31、y authorities. They must work together with the private sector to enable vibrant, competitive markets and to help shape the digital environment citizens want. There are a number of key areas where forward-facing policies and regulations are particularly crucial: 1. Network performance and reach: Mob

32、ile connectivity requires continuous investment by operators to keep up with demand and provide the service consumers and businesses expect, whether through densification in cities or plugging coverage gaps in rural areas. Governments at all levels can take steps to facilitate network deployment and

33、 expansion: simplifying and standardising planning procedures and regulations for site acquisition, colocation and upgrades of base stations and small cells; offering a reasonable expectation of approval for voluntary network-sharing deals while avoiding mandated sharing agreements; and adopting pol

34、icies that reduce costs for mobile operators while spurring investment. 2. Spectrum policy for the 5G era: Operators require access to sufficient radio spectrum in suitable frequencies, particularly in the sub-1 GHz coverage bands and prime 5G mid- and mmWave bands. With key spectrum (26 GHz and 40

35、GHz) secured for mobile at the 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC), a global ecosystem can now begin to develop equipment, devices and services that take advantage of these frequencies. However, governments and regulators should avoid inflating 5G spectrum prices (e.g. setting high auctio

36、n reserve prices) or setting aside spectrum (e.g. for vertical industries) that has been identified for mobile. 3. Capitalising on the 5G opportunity: Governments and regulators must play their part to help propel 5G into commercial use by implementing policies that encourage advanced technologies (

37、e.g. AI and IoT) to be applied across all economic sectors. 4. Ensuring consumer trust: Erosion of trust in digital services was a significant concern in 2019. As a result, governments around the world are implementing new or revised rules to ensure their citizens are protected when they engage with

38、 digital technologies. For data privacy laws to be successful, however, they must provide effective protection for individuals while allowing organisations the freedom to operate, innovate and comply in a way that makes sense for their businesses and secures positive outcomes for society. To advance

39、 the mobile ecosystem and the digital economy overall, governments should strive, as much as possible, to lighten the regulatory load on the industry. When the business environment for mobile operators is less costly and more flexible, the performance and reach of mobile service expands, the pace of

40、 innovation increases and users confidence in the digital ecosystem is strengthened. The Mobile Economy 2020 Executive Summary 5 Global Market UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS MOBILE INTERNET USERS 2019-2025 CAGR: 1.9% 5.2bn5.8bn 3.8bn 2019 2019 5.0bn 16m 2019-2025 CAGR: 4.6% INTERNET OF THINGS Total conne

41、ctions Total connections 12.0bn24.6bn 1.8bn 20252019 OPERATOR REVENUES AND INVESTMENT SIM CONNECTIONS 8.0bn 2019 8.8bn $1.03tn$1.14tn 2019 2019-2025 CAGR: 1.7% Excluding licensed cellular IoT Operator capex of $1.1 trillion for the period 20202025 (78% on 5G) 4.9% $490bn Mobile ecosystem contributio

42、n to public funding (before regulatory and spectrum fees) Jobs directly supported by the mobile ecosystem +14m indirect jobs 20% 2025 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 56%52% 2025 Excluding licensed cellular IoT % of connections Penetration Rate (% of population) 67% 70% 49%61% Penetration Rate (% of populat

43、ion) 103% Penetration Rate (% of population)107% Global Market UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS MOBILE INTERNET USERS 2019-2025 CAGR: 1.9% 5.2bn 16m 2019-2025 CAGR: 4.6% INTERNET OF THINGS Total connections Total connections 12.0bn24.6bn 1.8bn 20252019 of GDP $4.1tn 2019 2019 $4.9tn $1.03tn$1.14tn 2019 201

44、9-2025 CAGR: 1.7% Excluding licensed cellular IoT Operator capex of $1.1 trillion for the period 20202025 (78% on 5G) SMARTPHONES 2019EMPLOYMENT 4G5G 2019 Excluding licensed cellular IoT% of connections Excluding licensed cellular IoT % of total connections connections 80%65% 4.7% MOBILE INDUSTRY CO

45、NTRIBUTION TO GDP PUBLIC FUNDING of GDP 4.9% $490bn Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory and spectrum fees) Jobs directly supported by the mobile ecosystem +14m indirect jobs 20% 2025 2024 20252019 56%52% 2025 Excluding licensed cellular IoT % of connections 61% Penetra

46、tion Rate (% of population) 103% Penetration Rate (% of population)107% CIS Asia Pacific TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECH

47、NOLOGY MIX* Europe 2019 27% 25% 48% 7% 14% 68% 11% 17% 68% 12%2% 33% 25% 42% 59% 7% 1% 34% 2019 14% 28% 58% 2019 81% 65% 2019 2019 2025 2025 60% 64% 77% 82% 2019 2019 2025 2025 81% 62% 83% 87% 2019 2019 2025 2025 86% 76% 47% 53% Greater China 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIO

48、NTECHNOLOGY MIX* 83% 13% 5% 2019 89% 85% 2019 2019 2025 2025 82% 72% Note: All data for Asia Pacific in this report excludes China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan unless otherwise stated. The Mobile Economy 2020 Executive Summary 8 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 4G 5G2G 3G 2025 SMARTPH

49、ONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* MENA North America Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa *% of mobile connections excluding licensed cellular IoT Note: totals may not add up due to rounding 21% 67% 7% 5% 17% 35% 47% 2019 10% 36% 48% 6% 29% 40% 31% 2019 45% 6% 1%48% 2019 6% 12% 82% 58% 27% 3% 12% 2019 10% 45% 46% 79% 73% 2019 2019 2025 2025 68% 69% 74% 68% 2019 2019 2025 2025 64