《2020 5G能效绿色新潮流- GSMA & ZTE(英文版).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《2020 5G能效绿色新潮流- GSMA & ZTE(英文版).pdf(26页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Copyright 2020 GSM Association 5G energy efficiencies Green is the new black The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment
2、providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA
3、corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA Published November 2020 This report was authored by GSMA Intelligence withsupport from ZTE. Authors Tim Hatt, Head of Research Emanuel Kolta, Senior Analyst GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and f
4、orecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual da
5、ta points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long- term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cite
6、d by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought- leading research reports across a range of industry topics. Contents Executive summary 2 1 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 4 2 How networks consume energy 8 3 Site, RAN and network-w
7、ide innovations 12 4 Outlook 18 2 Executive summary 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Executive summary The imperative for change The impetus for reductions in energy emissions in the telecoms sector is anchored in the global fight to combat and mitigate climate change, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement
8、. Urgency has grown markedly over the last two years as governments seek to garner private sector commitments towards the central objective of keeping a global temperature rise this century to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This implies net zero for most countries by 205
9、0. 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Executive summary 3 In telecoms, a number of industry-specific factors rooted in countering rising network costs have further shaped efficiency efforts. The mix effect of LTE and 5G upgrades in emerging and advanced economies (led by the US and China) will result in these t
10、echnologies accounting for 60% and 20% of the global mobile connections base respectively by 2025. The impact of this shift will be a continued rise in mobile data traffic, estimated at 6.4GB per user per month in 2019 and forecast to grow threefold on a per-user basis over the next five years. Comb
11、ined with the rising costs of spectrum, capital investment and ongoing RAN maintenance/upgrades, energy-saving measures in network operations are necessary rather than nice to have. 5G New Radio (NR) offers a significant energy-efficiency improvement per gigabyte over previous generations of mobilit
12、y. However, new 5G use cases and the adoption of mmWave will require more sites and antennas. This leads to the prospect of a more efficient network that could paradoxically result in higher emissions without active intervention. The way forward Alongside technical improvements to reduce energy leak
13、age as power passes through the network phases, a range of measures are available to improve efficiency holistically across the network. These include the following: user equipment and devices energy consumption and extended battery life of end-user terminals, mostly handsets site-level innovations
14、new lithium-ion battery solutions, rectifiers, liquid cooling, air-con systems and simplification of site set-up RAN and network equipment innovations AI-driven software focussed on maximising sleep states to avoid unnecessary energy consumption in the RAN network planning and optimisation including
15、 the sunsetting of legacy 2G and 3G networks and long- term purchasing contracts for renewable energy. The big picture for operators of ultimately reducing emissions to net zero depends on wrapping energy- efficient technologies into a broader green strategy that encompasses all facets of operations
16、. In an effort to put teeth behind public commitments, many large operators have implemented KPIs and reporting targets in line with the independent Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Emissions reduction goals have been set in a phased approach to first reach carbon-neutral status before the m
17、ore difficult and ambitious objective of net zero. Verizon and Vodafone have set targets to reach net zero by 2040. Telefnica has committed to this status for its top four operating markets by 2030. The milestones en route to these goals are, however, front loaded, with Verizon and Vodafone aiming f
18、or 50% reductions in electricity usage by 2025 and Telefnica down 70% by 2030. Our analysis indicates that progress has generally been solid so far, enabled by advances in the renewable energy markets. Despite this progress, reporting targets are not yet in place in a majority of operators. There ar
19、e also a number of persistent barriers, including emissions data availability and tracking mechanisms, lack of partnerships with energy sector producers and, in some cases, outdated organisational structures that augur for more cross-team working and less hierarchy. The data aspect is of particular
20、importance; we hope this research will help raise awareness of the issue. The construction of comprehensive data pipelines with associated analytics would help uncover costly anomalies. Deploying smart sensors at various points of the network would help measure equipment-level energy consumption, ba
21、ttery status, active hours of generators, fuel levels, outside and indoor temperatures and air conditioning. Operators would need to build their comprehensive and real-time data repository, but we believe this would be money well spent. With reliable measurements and data pipelines established, big
22、data applications can monitor and adjust network power a key ability for the software-defined networks set to be the default option in the 5G era. 4 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES 1 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era Drivers for increasing effic
23、iency and reducing emissions The impetus for reductions in energy emissions in the telecoms sector is anchored in the global fight to combat and mitigate climate change, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Urgency has grown markedly over the last two years as governments seek to garner private
24、 sector commitments towards the central objective of keeping a global temperature rise this century to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This implies net zero for most countries by 2050. In telecoms, efficiency efforts have been further shaped by a number of industry-specif
25、ic factors rooted in countering rising network costs. The mix effect of LTE and 5G upgrades in emerging and advanced economies (led by the US and China) will result in these technologies accounting for 60% and 20% of the global mobile connections base respectively by 2025. The proximate impact of th
26、is shift will be a continued rise in mobile data traffic, estimated at 6.4 GB per user, per month in 2019 and forecast to grow threefold on a per-user basis over the next five years. Combined with the rising costs of spectrum, capital investment and ongoing RAN maintenance/upgrades, this means energ
27、y-saving measures in network operations are necessary rather than nice to have. The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Climate change 1 What is the Paris Agreement?What is the Paris Agreement? UNFCCC The response to climate change and, specifically, alignment with
28、the central resolution of the Paris Agreement has catalysed a wave of industry action in support of broader national commitments. The agreement stipulates that worldwide efforts should limit the rise in global average temperatures to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this ce
29、ntury, though with a preferred objective of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The scientific consensus and evidence in support of man-made warming has now been established over an extended period of time; surface temperatures have been on a steady upward path relative to the historic baseline, with 14 of the 15
30、hottest years on record occurring since 2000 (see Figure 1). As of October 2020, 189 countries (out of 197 signatories) had ratified the agreement a 96% conversion rate. Most of those yet to ratify are nations with political instability and/or outsized economic dependence on oil; their participation
31、 would not have a significant influence on the outcome, though. The US is a major exception. Its formal exit is planned for November. A full assessment of the Paris Agreement resolutions is out of scope for this research but details can be found via the UN.1 Ultimately, achievement of the goals depe
32、nds on individual nation states setting and implementing their own emissions reduction targets. Governments have generally co-opted private sector involvement to help achieve national objectives, rather than purely using legislation to mandate curbs in emissions. This strategy confers buy-in and has
33、 so far proven an effective stimulant for the rapid development of new technologies and a large-scale shift in energy use away from fossil fuels and towards renewables. The telecoms sector has emerged as a vocal supporter of proactive emissions reductions plans. This is enshrined in an industry- wid
34、e commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and bolstered by a growing group of operators that have embraced carbon reduction efforts as a core business objective, with strict reporting targets. Those of Vodafone, Telefnica and Verizon are used as examples in the rest of this section. Figure 1
35、Global carbon emissions and long-term temperature variation *Surface temperature for a given year relative to the long-term global average from 1951 to 1980. Values above zero indicate rising temperatures relative to the long-term average, while values below zero indicate the opposite. Source: Carbo
36、n Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Global Carbon Project, Nasa AsiaNorth AmericaEU-28Rest of world 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 20990000 Annual carbon emissions (billion tonnes) -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Degrees Celsius Te
37、mperature variation* 6 The imperative to reduce emissions in the 5G era 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Network costs and performance Irrespective of climate change, impetus for energy- saving measures from telecoms operators has grown as a result of sustained increases in network costs in a low revenue-grow
38、th environment. The telco business model is based on network scale. In times of growing revenues, margins expand as the largely fixed cost base is monetised (positive operating leverage), unless the operator is sub-scale. This is broadly what happened in the 2G and 3G eras in the 1990s and 2000s whe
39、n mobile phones were still new to people and subscriber growth consequently steadily rose. However, in periods of low or negative revenue growth, fixed costs are exposed, with resulting pressures on cashflow and longer term investments. Figure 2 shows Verizons financial ratios, but the effect can be
40、 observed across the sector over the last five years; revenue growth rates pre-Covid-19 have on average remained in low single digits. Without even showing the revenue growth line, it is clear that as network capital investments have increased to fund LTE and early 5G rollouts, free cash flow margin
41、s have been mostly preserved through reductions in personnel and other costs. Figure 2 Network cost and investment evolution (Verizon example) Note: free cashflow calculated as EBITDA minus capex and expressed as a share of total revenue. Source: GSMA Intelligence, Verizon Given the industry imperat
42、ive to invest in networks, capex is followed more closely than the costs of ongoing maintenance (opex). However, this is changing with the rapid adoption and incorporation of energy- efficient technologies. Both offer material savings in opex. Network opex tends to account for around 25% of the oper
43、ator cost base, or 10% of revenue. Over 90% of network costs are spent on energy, consisting mostly of fuel and electricity consumption (see Figure3). Most of this spend powers the RAN, with data centres and fibre transport accounting for a smaller share. The good news is that the shift from fossil
44、fuels to renewables has started to feed through to opex savings, as have the phased retirements of legacy 2G Network opexSG DC electricity flows in one direction only. For this reason, each cell site needs to have a rectifier module to convert AC to DC. Most cell sites in a typical portfolio are mor
45、e than 10 years old and operate with less efficient passive infrastructure, including the rectifier module. The cost of upgrade is significant up-front but crucial to more efficient conversion and lower consumption over the long term. New rectifiers are also key to cover the potential increased ener
46、gy consumption before installing 5G equipment and ensure smooth capacity expansion. Phase 3: energy transportation When power is transmitted at high voltages, the efficiency of energy transportation increases (with a lower rate of leakage) because of lower electric current in the conductors. Operato
47、rs can improve efficiency and reduce power loss by increasing voltage with boosters, using power equipment closer to the load, and decreasing the power supply distance. Phase 4: energy consumption This phase represents the lowest hanging fruit for efficiencies. Operators transform DC energy into rad
48、io waves, and receive and process incoming signals. This category can be further broken down into areas such as architecture optimisations, signalling, network shutdowns, cooling and beamforming. How networks consume energy 11 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES 12 Site, RAN and network-wide innovations 5G ENERG
49、Y EFFICIENCIES 3 Site, RAN and network-wide innovations Alongside technical improvements to reduce energy leakage as power passes through the network phases, solutions to improve efficiency holistically across the network are available (see Figure 5). Our analysis focuses on sites, the radio access level and broader network planning considerations. We exclude efforts targeted at handsets and other end-user terminals as these do not directly contribute to a mobile operators carbon emissions profile. Site, RAN and network-wide innovations 13 5G ENERGY EFFICIENCIES Figure 5 Energy-saving metho