1、Ericsson Mobility Report June 2019 mobility-report 2Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019Introduction Key contributors Executive Editor: Patrik Cerwall Project Manager: Anette Lundvall Editors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson Forecasts: Richard Mller Articles: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson, Andres Torr

2、es, Per Lindberg, Kati hman, Athanasios Karapantelakis Co-written articles: Shamil Bajgin, Elena Purtova, MTS (Russia) Saliha Sezgin Alp, Mustafa Karakoc, Gulay Yardim, Turkcell (Turkey) Jenni Barbour, Telstra (Australia) Letter from the publisher As market after market switches on 5G, we are at a t

3、ruly momentous point in time. No previous generation of mobile technology has had the potential to drive economic growth to the extent that 5G promises. It goes beyond connecting people to fully realizing the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Digital infrastructure can m

4、ake distance less relevant than ever. 5G is the key to making it all work driving economic value from enhanced mobile broadband to industry digitalization. That, in turn, will require an ecosystem of technology, regulatory, security and industry partners to deliver on the potential. Smart cities, In

5、dustrial IoT, augmented reality, autonomous transport and digital health are just some of the exciting prospects that can be made real with the support of the 5G ecosystem. In this edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, we go beyond the forecast numbers and, in three co-written articles, present a

6、 glimpse of the impressive progress happening in markets on the verge of deploying 5G: With Telstra in Australia, we explore how to manage the ever-growing demand for data and video, while maintaining consumer experience, particularly for live content streaming. With MTS in Russia, we describe how m

7、obile networks must evolve to ensure network performance that meets customer experience expectations, as well as enabling new services when preparing for 5G. With Turkcell in Turkey, we look into managing network performance and service offerings in a successful fixed wireless access (FWA) implement

8、ation. As 5G is switched on in country after country, the significance of this technology for all sectors of society will become increasingly apparent. I hope you find the report engaging and useful! Publisher Fredrik Jejdling Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks 5G switched o

9、n With Telstra, we explore how to manage the demand for data and video while maintaining consumer experience, especially for live content streaming. Page 26 With MTS, we describe how mobile networks must evolve to ensure network performance that meets customer expectations, and enables new services

10、when preparing for 5G. Page 20 3Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019Introduction Articles 20 Network evolution strategies towards 5G 23 Experiences from smart fixed wireless access deployment 26 Superior media experiences by broadcasting content 29 Applying AI to mobile radio site management 32 Meth

11、odology 33 Glossary 34 Global and regional key figures Forecasts 04 Mobile subscriptions Q1 2019 06 Mobile subscriptions outlook 08 IoT connections outlook 10 5G device outlook 11 Voice and communication services outlook 12 Regional subscriptions outlook 14 Mobile traffic Q1 2019 15 Mobile traffic b

12、y application category 16 Mobile data traffic outlook 18 Network coverage 19 Private networks Contents The content of this document is based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions. Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission ma

13、de in this document. Furthermore, Ericsson may, at any time, change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. Find out more Scan the QR code or visit With Turkcell, we look into managing network performance and service offering

14、s in an FWA implementation. Page 23 We show how AI can improve radio tower inspections by detecting and diagnosing cabling issues. Page 29 Forecasts4Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 Mobile subscriptions Q1 2019 The total number of mobile subscriptions was around 7.9 billion in Q1 2019, with 44 m

15、illion new subscriptions added during the quarter. 1 Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX Mainly CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX * India region includes India, Nepal and Bhutan * Excluding China and India Sub

16、scription penetration Q1 2019 (percent of population) 122% Western Europe 114% China 141% Central and Eastern Europe 81% Africa 102% Latin America 104% North America 112% Middle East 85% India* 114% APAC* The number of mobile subscriptions grew at 2 percent year-on-year and currently totals around 7

17、.9 billion. China had the most net additions during the quarter (+30 million), followed by Nigeria (+5 million) and the Philippines (+4 million). The high subscription growth in China continues from last year, and is likely the result of intense competition among communications service providers in

18、the country. In India, the number of subscriptions declined by 14 million. This was mainly due to the introduction of a minimum regular recharge amount by some large operators, to tackle low-paying users and increase average revenue per user (ARPU). The number of mobile broadband subscriptions1 grew

19、 at 15 percent year-on-year, increasing by 140 million in Q1 2019. The total is now 6 billion, equaling 76 percent of mobile subscriptions. The number of LTE subscriptions increased by 160 million during the quarter to reach a total of 3.7 billion, and 47 percent of all mobile subscriptions are now

20、for LTE. The net addition for WCDMA/HSPA was around 20 million subscriptions. GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions declined by 80 million. Other technologies declined by around 30 million. Subscriptions associated with smartphones account for more than 60 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions. The number

21、 of mobile subscriptions exceeds the population in many countries, which is largely due to inactive subscriptions, multiple device ownership or optimization of subscriptions for different types of calls. As a result, the number of mobile subscribers is lower than the number of mobile subscriptions.

22、Today, there are around 5.7 billion subscribers globally compared to 7.9 billion subscriptions. Global mobile subscription penetration is now at 104 percent. Forecasts5Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 Total and new mobile subscriptions Q1 2019 (million) North America385 (+2) Middle East415 (+3)

23、Western Europe510 (-5) Central and Eastern Europe 580 (0) Africa1,045 (+15) APAC (excluding China and India) 1,545 (+12) India1,160 (-14) Latin America665 (+1) China1,595 (+30) 6bn There are now 6 billion mobile broadband subscriptions. 47% 47 percent of all mobile subscriptions are now for LTE. 104

24、% Global subscription penetration is at 104 percent in Q1 2019. Top countries by net additions Q1 2019 China +30 million Nigeria +5 million Philippines +4 million Forecasts6Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio

25、 (NR), as specified in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network Mobile subscriptions outlook The strong momentum for 5G continues. 5G is on a roll. During the second quarter of 2019 several markets switched on 5G following the introduction of new 5G-compatible smartphones. Some comm

26、unications service providers have set ambitious targets of reaching up to 90 percent population coverage within the first year. As 5G devices increasingly become available and more service providers launch 5G, over 10 million 5G subscriptions are projected worldwide by the end of 2019. Looking ahead

27、, in the first five years, 5G subscription uptake is expected to be significantly faster than that of LTE, following its launch back in 2009. On a global level, 5G network deployments are expected to ramp up during 2020, creating the foundation for massive adoption of 5G subscriptions. Most new 5G s

28、ubscribers will be users trading up their 4G handsets to 5G-compatible devices following 5G services launching in their market. By the end of the period, it is also likely that many young users in mature markets will get a 5G smartphone as their first device. Given the momentum in the market, we hav

29、e increased our forecast for 5G subscriptions, and now expect there to be 1.9 billion 5G subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by the end of 2024. This will account for over 20 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time. The peak of LTE subscriptions is projected for 2022, at around 5.3

30、billion subscriptions, with the number declining slowly thereafter. However, LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology by subscription for the foreseeable future, and it is projected to have nearly 5 billion subscriptions at the end of 2024. 1 3 2 4 10 9 8 7 6 5 Mobile subscriptions by t

31、echnology (billion) 20002020224 Note: IoT connections and FWA subscriptions are not included in this graph 5G LTE (4G) WCDMA/HSPA (3G) GSM/EDGE-only (2G) TD-SCDMA (3G) CDMA-only (2G/3G) Other 8.8 billion 7.9 billion Cellular IoT connections and fixed wireless access

32、(FWA) subscriptions supporting new use cases will come in addition to the mobile subscriptions shown in the graph below. 0 Forecasts7Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 2 The number of fixed broadband users is at least three times the number of fixed broadband connections due to shared subscription

33、s in households, enterprises and public access spots. This is the opposite for mobile phones, where subscription numbers exceed user numbers. FWA subscriptions are not part of the fixed broadband subscription estimate By the end of 2024, 95 percent of all subscriptions will be for mobile broadband W

34、e estimate that there will be 8.8 billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2024. Out of this, around 95 percent will be for mobile broadband. The number of unique mobile subscribers is estimated to reach 6.2 billion by the end of our forecast period. Over the last couple of years, we have slightly

35、 reduced our forecast for mobile subscriptions due to a number of factors beginning to decline in importance. The number of users having multiple SIMs has started to reduce, and prepaid subscriptions have been fewer than anticipated because many markets now require all prepaid SIMs to be registered.

36、 On the other hand, smartphone penetration continues to rise. At the end of 2018, there were 5.1 billion smartphone subscriptions, 99 percent of which were for 3G and 4G. The number of smartphone subscriptions is forecast to reach 7.2 billion in 2024. Subscriptions for fixed broadband are expected t

37、o show limited growth of around 3 percent per year through 2024.2 Subscriptions for mobile PCs, tablets and routers are expected to show moderate growth, reaching 330 million in 2024. Smartphone subscriptions by technology (billion) 2018 5.1 billion-1.0 +1.2 +1.8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7.2 billion 2024 1 S

38、ubscriptions and subscribers (billion) 2000224 8.3bn In 2024, there will be 8.3 billion mobile broadband subscriptions. Mobile broadband subscriptions Mobile PCs, tablets and router subscriptions Mobile subscriptions Mobile subscribers Fixed broadband subscriptions 2

39、018 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 4G 5G 2G/3G 5G 4G 2G/3G 2G/3G 0 4G Forecasts8Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 IoT connections outlook NB-IoT and Cat-M technologies will account for close to 45 percent of cellular IoT connections in 2024. To date, 2G and 3G connectivity has enabled many cellular IoT applic

40、ations. In recent years, support for large volumes of devices has been enabled by the Massive IoT technologies NB-IoT and Cat-M1 deployed on top of LTE networks. Cellular IoT use cases will have differing connectivity requirements. A heat sensor in a basement will need deep coverage and have low thr

41、oughput, whereas a connected robot on a production line may require ultra-low latency, high reliability and high throughput. Cellular IoT use cases can be divided into four segments based on their connectivity requirements. Massive IoT This segment primarily includes wide-area use cases, connecting

42、massive numbers of low-complexity, low-cost devices with long battery life and relatively low throughput. Support for these is already being provided in todays LTE networks with NB-IoT and Cat-M. These technologies complement each other and there is an emerging trend towards service providers deploy

43、ing one common network supporting both technologies. Cat-M is suited to use cases that require relatively higher throughput, lower latency and voice support, whereas NB-IoT is suited to use cases with very low throughput that are tolerant of delay but require extended coverage. 1 Cat-M includes both

44、 Cat-M1 and Cat-M2. Only Cat-M1 is being supported today 2 These figures are also included in the figures for wide-area IoT IoT connections (billion) IoT20182024CAGR Wide-area IoT1.14.427% Cellular IoT21.04.127% Short-range IoT7.517.815% Total8.622.317% Cellular IoT connections by segment and techno

45、logy (billion) Broadband IoT, Critical IoT (4G/5G) Massive IoT (NB-IoT/Cat-M) Legacy (2G/3G) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 202420232022202015 0 Verticals using Massive IoT include utilities with smart metering, healthcare in the form of medical wearables and transport wit

46、h tracking sensors. At the end of 2024, NB-IoT and Cat-M are expected to account for close to 45 percent of all cellular IoT connections. In the future, NB-IoT and Cat-M will be able to fully co-exist in spectrum bands with 5G NR. Forecasts9Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2019 Industrial automation

47、IoT Critical IoTBroadband IoTMassive IoT 3 Co-operative Intelligent Transport System Broadband IoT This segment mainly includes wide-area use cases that require higher throughput, lower latency and larger data volumes than Massive IoT technologies can support. LTE networks are well prepared to suppo

48、rt use cases in this segment, as the technology can provide peak data rates in the multi-Gbps range and radio interface latency as low as 10ms. LTE is already connecting millions of modern cars, and there are LTE-capable smart watches. By the end of 2024, nearly 35 percent of cellular IoT connection

49、s will be Broadband IoT, with 4G connecting the majority. When moving to 5G, with higher speed, lower latency and other capabilities, even more advanced use cases can be supported. Throughputs in the tens of Gbps and latency as low as 5ms will be possible. Critical IoT This segment includes both wide-area and local-area use cases that have requirements for extremely low latency and ultra-high reliability. 5G NR networks with support for Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communication (URLLC) as d