1、Subscriptions FWA connections are forecast to grow threefold and reach close to 160 million by the end of 2025 Mobile data traffic After a peak in traffic growth in 2018 and 2019, the growth rate has returned to a more normal level Co-written article Verizon plans to double the places it is building

2、 out 5G on mmWave spectrum during 2020 mobility-report Ericsson Mobility Report June 2020 Introduction2 Introduction 04 Communication needs in times of crisis 06 Connected consumers getting through the pandemic 09 More service offering choices for the consumer Forecasts 10 Mobile subscriptions outlo

3、ok 12 Regional subscriptions outlook 14 Fixed wireless access outlook 15 5G device outlook 16 Voice and communication services trends and outlook 17 Mobile network traffic Q1 2020 18 Mobile traffic by application category 19 Gaming on the move 20 Mobile data traffic outlook 22 Network coverage 23 Io

4、T connections outlook Articles 24 Verizon is transforming fixed and mobile broadband with 5G 28 Dedicated networks for industrial connectivity 32 Methodology 33 Glossary 34 Global and regional key figures Contents We are living in unprecedented times. Directly or indirectly, COVID-19 has affected ev

5、eryone around the world. Social distancing and keeping millions at home has placed significant demands on infrastructure. Systems supporting healthcare, education and businesses of all types are under stress. Today, connectivity is key and so far, telecom networks have stood up to the task. This mas

6、sive disruption has highlighted the value of the network, as recognized clearly by the consumers we surveyed for this edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report. While in some markets 5G subscription growth has slowed as a result of the pandemic, this is outweighed by other markets where it is accelera

7、ting, leading us to raise our forecast of global 5G subscriptions at the end of 2020. However, the success of 5G cannot be measured in subscriptions alone. The value 5G brings will be determined by the success of new use cases and applications for consumers and businesses. In this report we cover as

8、pects of fixed wireless access, gaming and dedicated networks to give a broad picture of the progress of an industry that despite the current situation continues to rapidly evolve. 5G was made for innovation and, as the value of the digital infrastructure has been further evidenced during these rece

9、nt times, 5G investments can play a significant role in restarting economies. We hope you find the report engaging and useful! Publisher Fredrik Jejdling Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks Adapting to new realities Letter from the publisher Key contributors Executive Editor:

10、 Patrik Cerwall Project Manager: Anette Lundvall Editors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson Forecasts: Richard Mller Articles: Peter Jonsson, Stephen Carson, Steven Davis, Greger Blennerud, Per Lindberg, Kati hman, Jeff Travers, Finn Pedersen, Peter Linder, Jasmeet Singh Sethi, Peter Rinderud, Jose Alon

11、so-Rubio, Jorge Luque Garcia Co-authors: Heidi Hemmer, Chris Ashraf, Amelia Powell: Verizon (US) The content of this document is based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions. Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in

12、this document. Furthermore, Ericsson may, at any time, change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. 3Introduction3Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2020 With Verizon, we explore deploying 5G using mmWave spectrum in the US Fi

13、nd out more Scan the QR code or visit 25% By the end of 2025, 25 percent of the worlds mobile network data traffic is forecast to be fixed wireless access 190m 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 190 million by the end of 2020 A -10 to 20 percent change in data traffic has been experienced by ser

14、vice providers during the initial COVID-19 lockdown restriction phase 83% During lockdown, 83 percent of smartphone users claim that ICT helped them a lot to cope 14% Mobile data traffic grew by 14 percent between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 Page 04 Page 06 Page 14Page 24 Page 10 Page 20 4Ericsson Mobility

15、Report | June 2020Introduction Communication needs in times of crisis The first months of 2020 saw the spread of a novel coronavirus around the globe. Subsequent behavioral changes, due to lockdown restrictions in many countries, caused measurable changes in the usage of both fixed and mobile networ

16、ks. Figure 1: The lockdown restriction effect on mobility and mobile traffic levels Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forced an unprecedented number of people all over the world to change their workplace from office to home and become accustomed to new routines in their daily lives. As new digital

17、 behaviors are forming, the critical role of communications service providers to support a functioning society with flawless digital communication capabilities in times of crisis has become apparent. Network traffic and service impact As people spent more time online at home, network traffic loads s

18、hifted geographically from city centers and office areas to suburban residential areas. The largest share of the traffic increase as lockdowns went into place was absorbed by the fixed residential network, but many service providers also experienced an increased demand on the mobile network. Network

19、s are dimensioned to support traffic demand during peak hours of usage, which for data traffic normally occurs in the evening. However, the data traffic generated as people worked from home also created additional peak hours of usage during daytime. It was primarily these peak hours of data usage th

20、at needed to be supported with a sufficient level of network performance to avoid service quality degradation, e.g. by measures like capacity upgrades, load balancing and traffic optimization. There are different minimum network throughput requirements for various apps that need to be maintained to

21、provide a service at a specific quality level, such as fast web download times, short video start times and good picture quality. Conversational and bidirectional apps, such as video calling, require at least 1Mbps downlink/uplink throughput, while media consumption could require up to 20Mbps downli

22、nk throughput for a good service quality. The increased data consumption was mainly driven by a rising usage of bidirectional remote work-related apps, such as audio, web and video conferencing, entertainment apps (streaming video and audio), social media and messaging. Networks rising to the challe

23、nge A substantial increase in the volume and duration of mobile voice calls across networks ranging from 20 to 70 percent was observed in the most impacted regions during the initial lockdown phase. Mobile data traffic growth was typically moderate, or even negative, ranging from -10 to 20 percent i

24、n different networks. However, the traffic increase was unevenly distributed, with some cells experiencing a large increase despite overall moderate or even decreasing traffic growth throughout the network. In markets with limited penetration of fixed residential networks, the mobile data demand inc

25、rease was especially high. In general, service providers managed to provide sufficient network performance despite changing traffic patterns and increased traffic demand. In some markets, a contributing factor to mobile data traffic growth was that service providers made temporary changes to data pl

26、ans and either increased the “bucket size” or allowed unlimited data for a certain period of time. Highest traffic level increase Traffic levels similar Highest traffic level decrease Change in mobile data traffic levels in the Paris area two weeks before and after lockdown in mid-March, showing a g

27、eographical shift in demand from central to adjacent and suburban areas Source: Ericsson Analytics based on crowdsourced data Change in density of mobile network users throughout central Paris two weeks before and after lockdown in mid-March 5Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2020Introduction Figure 2

28、: The fixed and mobile network impact following lockdown restrictions Traffic increased by 20100 percent as a consequence of COVID-19 lockdowns. The largest share of the 20100 percent traffic increase was absorbed by the fixed residential network. Up to 90 percent increase in Voice over Wi-Fi (VoWiF

29、i) calls for some service providers. A large data increase for FWA service providers, similar to what was observed in fixed (wired) residential networks.* An increase of 2070 percent in voice due to more and longer calls. Data traffic increased due to more bidirectional and streaming services. Relat

30、ive higher growth in uplink traffic. Most service providers also experienced a -10 to 20 percent change in traffic levels on the mobile network.* * Even higher increase for some outliers * Based on measurements in selected FWA networks Source: Based on data from a selection of representative markets

31、 in Europe, Asia and the Americas Data traffic increased due to a higher usage of streaming services. Some service providers experienced network congestion. Fixed wireless access (FWA) 2G/3G/4G Mobile network impact The traffic demand shifted from downtown and public areas to suburban residential ar

32、eas. Some cells experienced very large increases in traffic despite moderate growth, flat or even decreasing traffic trends across the whole network. End-user-experienced data speeds decreased in newly loaded cells and increased in unloaded ones. User mobility across the networks decreased, leading

33、to general improvement of some key performance indicators (KPI), e.g. retainability. On rare occasions, minor degradation in mobile network performance was observed, typically on individual cell level where capacity upgrades were needed. In many cases, overall network performance even improved due t

34、o reduced population movement and less mobile traffic. It is often difficult for consumers to distinguish network performance issues from application server congestion, or under-dimensioned corporate VPN capacity. In many cases, perceived performance problems are related to specific services and inc

35、reased load on their related servers (e.g. during video conferencing). As consumers and enterprises try out new digital behaviors imposed by COVID-19, an increased importance may emerge for e-health, wellness apps, e-learning, public sector data access and similar digital utility services. Keeping c

36、onnected during the crisis Consumers communication behavior has partly changed, where video calling and video conferencing services appear to stand out, especially among white-collar workers and seniors (60+). Previously, consumers have not fully embraced video calling as one could have expected, as

37、 is evidenced by a relatively low uptake in most countries. Now, as many as half of respondents in a recently conducted consumer study claim they have increased their usage of video calls.1 It also appears that video calling is the service that most have started to use during the crisis. As many as

38、85 percent of consumers now use video calling, making it the second most important way of contacting family and friends during the crisis, after voice calls. The study also shows that the quality of video calls with friends and family is the most important experience when consumers were asked to jud

39、ge their mobile network performance during the crisis. Among seniors, 74 percent claim they now use video calls and 4 out of 10 have increased their video usage due to social distancing. Among white-collar workers, 88 percent now use video calls, and as many as 60 percent say they have increased the

40、ir usage of video calls. This behavior among seniors is likely to continue and remain established after the crisis ends. For white-collar workers, the habit of using video conferencing seems likely to continue into the future as 7 in 10 believe they will be working more from home after the crisis th

41、an they did before. They also agree that the traditional way of conducting voice-based conference calls will change to video-based conference calls. 1 Ericsson Consumer they are offered by 85 out of the 123 service providers, up from 75 out of 112 in the previous study. Commercial 5G on the rise Two

42、 package types related to 5G consumer use cases (consumer IoT and home broadband) show exceptional growth. These are represented in the device-based and fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings, which increased to 66and 175 respectively. Within the group of 46 service providers that was added in 2020,

43、10 service providers also offered FWA, bringing this number up to 185 out of 309. Additionally, there are 26 service providers offering broadband using a mobile battery-powered pocket router. The number of service providers with commercial 5G offerings grew from 26in the previous study to 55 in the

44、latest. Of these, 49 offered 5G for smartphones and6offered solely FWA over 5G. Around two-thirds of the service providers with 5G offerings charged a premium over their 4G pricing. The premium varied tremendously, from 6.8percent up to 96 percent, but on average was 32 percent. A varied offering Se

45、rvice providers continue to provide more choice for consumers as they explore new forms of segmentation and differentiation. Additionally, most of the newly introduced elements are provided as add-ons, with buckets remaining the basis of the offers. Unlimited packages have been overtaken by service-

46、based offerings as a top-tier option. Offerings related to 5G represent the strongest growth, as service providers try new ways of packaging their services in search of new revenues. More service offering choices for the consumer Commercial 5G offerings are on the rise, leading to subtle shifts in s

47、ervice packaging trends. Figure 6: Number of service providers per type of offering 1 Ericsson Mobility Report, “Mobile service packaging trends” (November 2019) 305 250 260260 84 81 112 71 40 9 44 31 141 103 95 87 40 2 54 26 300 200 150 100 50 Buckets Number of service providers UnlimitedService-ba

48、sedOff-peakDevice-basedFixed wireless access Family and share plans Triple/ quad-play 5G Dec 18Aug 19Feb 20 (amount reflecting organic growth)Feb 20 (amount attributable to the enlarged base) 0 99 123 54 66 185 114 69 55 10Ericsson Mobility Report | June 2020Forecasts 8 1 3 2 4 10 9 7 6 5 1 Ericsson

49、 and GSA (May 2020) 2 A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio (NR), as specified in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network 3 Ericsson Mobility Report (November 2019) Mobile subscriptions outlook A total of 190 million 5G subscriptions are expected by the end of 2020. The spread of COVID-19 during the first part of 2020 impacted all parts of society globally, including the telecommunications sector. Despite the uncertainty