1、U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T2023REVIEWOF MARITIME TRANSPORTTowards a green and just transition20232023REVIEWOF MARITIME TRANSPORTTowards a Towards a green and just green and just transitiontransitionGeneva,2023U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F

2、 E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TU N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023ii 2023,United NationsAll rights reserved worldwideRequests to reproduce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Co

3、pyright Clearance Center at .All other queries on rights and licences,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to:United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York,New York 10017United States of AmericaEmail:publicationsun.orgWebsite:https:/shop.un.org/The designations employed and the

4、presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Mention of an

5、y firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This publication has been edited externally.United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNCTAD/RMT/2023ISBN:978-92-1-002886-8 eISBN:978-92-1-358456-9ISSN:0566-7682eISSN:2225

6、-3459 Sales No.E.23.II.D.23REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023iiiACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Review of Maritime Transport 2023 was prepared by UNCTAD under the overall guidance of Shamika N.Sirimanne,Director of the Division on Technology and Logistics of UNCTAD,and under the coordination of Jan Hoffmann,Head

7、 of the Trade Logistics Branch,Division on Technology and Logistics.Regina Asariotis,Mark Assaf,Celine Bacrot,Hassiba Benamara,Poul Hansen,Jan Hoffmann,Tomasz Kulaga,Anila Premti,Luisa Rodrguez and Frida Youssef co-authored the report.The report benefitted from substantive contributions by officials

8、 from the regional commissions of the United Nations(ECA,ECE,ECLAC,ESCAP,and ESCWA),the TrainForTrade Port Management Programme partners(Port of Antwerp-Bruges,Port of Las Palmas,Port Authority of Valencia)and other partners.Input was provided by Adel Alghaberi,Eliana Barleta,Frida Basok,Juan Manuel

9、 Dez Orejas,Mohamad Fakhreddin,Alejandro Garcia Macias,Nadia Hasham,Azhar Jaimurzina Ducrest,Sooyeob Kim,Robert Tama Lisinge,Magec Montesdeoca,Miryam Saade Hazin,Antonella Teodoro,Joachim Verheyen and Lukasz Wyrowski.Comments and suggestions from the following peer reviewers are gratefully acknowled

10、ged:Niklas Bengtsson,Brje Berneblad,Mattijs Bosch,Camille Bourgeon,Christoph Bruns,Santi Casciano,Neil Davidson,Juan Manuel Dez Orejas,Mahin Faghfouri,Hercules Haralambides,Syed Hashim Abbas,Martin Humphreys,Morten Ingebrigtsen,Haiying Jia,Ana Laranjeira,John Manners-Bell,Turloch Mooney,Christopher

11、Plsson,Harilaos N.Psaraftis,Torbjrn Rydbergh,Tristan Smith,Antonella Teodoro,Bitten Thorgaard Sorensen,Michael Tsimplis,Patrick Verhoeven and Gilbert Walter.Experts from the International Chamber of Shipping reviewed elements of Chapter 2.Comments received from UNCTAD divisions as part of the intern

12、al peer review process,as well as feedback provided by the Office of the Secretary-General,are acknowledged with appreciation.The Review was edited by Romilly Golding.Administrative,editing,and proofreading support was provided by Wendy Juan.Magali Denise Studer and David Bustamante Masana designed

13、the publication.Overall layout,graphics and desktop publishing were undertaken by the Division of Conference Management of the United Nations Office at Geneva.Special thanks are also due to Vladislav Shuvalov for reviewing the publication in full.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023ivTABLE OF CONTENTSA

14、cknowledgements.iiiAbbreviations.viiiNote.xiForeword.xiiiOverview.xv1.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRADE .1A.International maritime trade flows.3B.Continued disruptions to shipping and ports threaten energy and food security.12C.Shifts in the geography of maritime trade.18D.Outlook and policy recommendati

15、ons.212.WORLD SHIPPING FLEET,SERVICES,AND FREIGHT RATES.27A.Global shipping fleet developments.29B.Trends in freight markets.44C.Outlook and policy recommendations.513.DECARBONIZING SHIPPING.55A.Riding uncertainty and charting the course to low carbon shipping.57B.Potential implications of decarboni

16、zation on States.66C.Fuel transition pathways.68D.Outlook and policy recommendations.764.PORT PERFORMANCE AND MARITIME TRADE AND TRANSPORT FACILITATION.83A.Port performance.85B.Facilitating maritime trade and transport.98C.Lessons learned from the TrainForTrade Port Management Programme.102D.Outlook

17、 and policy recommendations.1075.LEGAL ISSUES AND REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS.111A.Regulatory developments may facilitate the future use of electronic bills of lading.113B.Growing importance of regulatory measures under the auspices of the International Maritime Organisation to combat pollution from shi

18、ps in the context of the2030 Agenda.115C.Other legal and regulatory developments affecting transportation in 2023 and beyond.117D.Status of conventions.120E.Outlook and policy recommendations.121REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023vBoxes1.1 Persistent challenges impeding global economic growth and trad

19、e in 2022 and 2023.31.2 Seaborne containerized trade performs differently across sub-regions.81.3 The Black Sea Initiative contribution to grain trade amid the war in Ukraine and its discontinuation.151.4 The impact of the AfCFTA on the demand for transport infrastructure and services.193.1 Port of

20、Antwerp-Bruges aims to become a green energy hub and climate neutral by 2050.723.2 The Port of Las Palmas shows commitment to environmental sustainability.733.3 Promoting low-and zero-emissions shipping in Asia and the Pacific.734.1 Container port efficiency in the Arab region.914.2 Code of Practice

21、 for Packing of Cargo Transport Units.1004.3 Digital transformation and scorecards the Port Authority of Valencia.105Figures1 Seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20002024.xvi2 Number of port calls per half year,world total,20182022.xvi3 Average distance travelled,grain,other dry bulk,container

22、and oil cargo,19992024.xvii4 The world fleet,19802023.xviii5 Shanghai Containerized Freight Index,monthly spot rates,June 2018June 2023,selected routes .xix6 Minutes per container move,by range of call size,top 5 countries by port calls.xx7 Average waiting times of container ships at port in hours,m

23、onthly,January 2016July 2023.xxi8 Carbon dioxide emissions,tons,by main flags of registration,2012 and 2022.xxiv9 Carbon dioxide emissions,tons,by main economies of ownership,2012 and 2022.xxv10 Carbon dioxide emissions by main vessel types,tons,January 2012March 2023.xxvi1.1 International maritime

24、trade,20032024.51.2 Seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20002024.61.3 Distance travelled per ton of maritime cargo,19992024.61.4 Crude oil and refined oil products seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20032024.71.5 Coal seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20032024.71.6 Global container

25、ized trade,19962023.81.7 Percentage share of different cargo types in total seaborne trade,20022024.121.8 Gas seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles.142.1 The world fleet,thousand dead weight tons and percentage change,19802023 .302.2 World tonnage on order,million dead weight tons and percentage

26、change,20052023.362.3 Fleet capacity of the top 10 liner operators,percentage share,Q2 2023 and Q2 2006.402.4 Scheduled capacity of leading liner operators,percentage share,Q2 2019 and Q2 2023.432.5 Capacity offered alone or as part of consortium by leading liner operators,percentageshare,Q2 2019 an

27、d Q2 2023.432.6 Growth of demand and supply in container shipping,percentage change,20072023.44REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023vi2.7 Shanghai Containerized Freight Index monthly spot rates,selected routes,June 2018June 2023.452.8 New ConTex index,June 2018June 2023.462.9 Baltic Exchange Dry Index,J

28、une 2019June 2023.482.10 Dry bulk average weighted earnings all bulkers,Capesize,and Panamax($/day),20182023.492.11 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and the Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index,May 2018May 2023.502.12 Average earnings,selected tankers,$per day,May 2018May 2023.503.1 Total carbon dioxide emis

29、sions by vessel types,tons,January 2012March 2023.573.2 World fleet,three main vessel types,monthly carbon dioxide emissions per ton-mile,January 2012March 2023.583.3 Carbon dioxide emissions by main flags of registration,tons,2012 and 2022.593.4 Carbon dioxide emissions by main economies of ownersh

30、ip,tons,2012 and 2022.603.5 Percentage of vessels with Carbon Intensity Indicator ratings,A,B or C with zfactorfor 2022 and 2026 .613.6 Assessing the impacts of increased maritime logistics costs,percentage change.663.7 Alternative fuel uptake,world active fleet and orderbook,number of vessels,2022.

31、683.8 Alternative fuel uptake,world active fleet and orderbook in gross tons,2022.693.9 Trends in alternative fuels capable and energy saving technology fitted fleet,percentageof the orderbook and gross tons,20052023.704.1 Port calls per half year,world total,20182022.854.2 Container throughput,mill

32、ion 20-foot equivalent units,20162024.864.3 Liner shipping connectivity index,world and regional average,2006 Q12023 Q2.874.4 Liner shipping connectivity index,selected countries and groupings averages,2006 Q12023 Q2.884.5 Number of operators and largest ships,average per country,2006 Q12023 Q2.884.

33、6 Average number of operators,regional average,2006 Q12023 Q2.894.7 Number of active container ports,world total,2006 Q12023 Q2.894.8 Number of active container ports,regional totals,2006 Q12023 Q2.904.9 Container Port Performance Index values 2022,ports regional distributions.914.10 Time in port,wo

34、rld median,in days,2018 S12022 S2.964.11 Average waiting times of container ships at port in hours,monthly,January 2016July 2023.974.12 Per cent of fleet capacity at anchorage or in the port,by vessel type,January 2016April 2023.974.13 Country Container Port Performance Index values 2022 by implemen

35、tation status ofselected measures under the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement.994.14 Selected port performance indicators,median value across all port members of the TrainForTrade Port Management programme,20162022.1044.15 Cruise and ferry passenger,median value across all ports,20162022.1044.16 Port

36、 authority revenue profile,median share of concession and property dues,members of the TrainForTrade Port Management Programme,20162022.1054.17 Womens participation in port workforces,median across all ports,20162022.106REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023viiTables1 Seaborne trade forecast,20242028.xv1

37、.1 International maritime trade development forecast,20242028.41.2 Containerized trade on major EastWest trade routes,20142022.101.3 Global containerized trade by route,20202022.101.4Containerized trade on main EastWest and other containerized trade routes,20152022.111.5Major seaborne exporters and

38、importers of oil,oil products,coal and liquefied natural gas,top ranking in terms of share of global trade volumes and of annual percentage changes.131.6Major grain seaborne exporters and importers 2022 and 2023,top ranking in terms of shareof global trade volumes and of annual percentage changes.16

39、2.1World fleet by vessel type,thousand dead weight tons,20222023.302.2Deliveries of newbuilt vessels by type and building country,thousands of gross tons,2022.312.3Age of world merchant fleet,by vessel type and flag of registration,years and dead weighttons,2022 and 2023.312.4Leading flags of regist

40、ration by dead weight tons,2022.332.5Ownership of the world fleet,by carrying capacity,national-and foreign-flagged fleet,deadweight tons,2022.342.6Ship owning countries and flags of registration by value,1 January 2023.352.7Reported tonnage sold for ship recycling by major vessel type and recycling

41、 country,thousands of gross tons,2022 .372.8Container carrying capacity deployed by new operators who entered the market,percentageshare,Q2 2020 and Q2 2023.392.9Fleet capacity of the top 10 liner operators,20-foot equivalent unit capacity and percentage change,Q2 of 2006 and Q2 of 2023.412.10Number

42、 of ports where carriers offer the highest level of capacity,2019 and 2023.412.11Top three liner operators presence in selected world port terminals,2021.422.12Annual Full Container Load Gate-in/Gate-out rates,in$/40-foot equivalent unit 20182022.473.1 Selected voluntary initiatives for decarbonizin

43、g shipping.653.2 Overview of alternative fuels and their production pathways.704.1 Top 25 ports under the Container Port Performance Index 2022.904.2 Minutes per container move,2022,by range of call size,top 25 countries by port calls.924.3 Cargo and vessel handling performance for dry bulk carriers

44、,top 30 economies by vessel arrivals,average values for the first four months of 2023 and changes from 2022.934.4 Cargo and vessel handling performance for tankers,top 30 economies by vessel arrivals,average values for the first four months of 2023 and changes from 2022.944.5 Port Performance Scorec

45、ard,20162022.102REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023viiiABBREVIATIONSAERAnnual Efficiency RatioAfCFTAAfrican Continental Free Trade AreaAIArtificial IntelligenceAISautomatic identification systemASYCUDAAutomated System for Customs DataBCTIBaltic Clean Tanker IndexBDIBaltic Dry IndexBDTIBaltic Dirty Tan

46、ker IndexBIMCOBaltic and International Maritime CouncilBSIBlack Sea InitiativeCBAMCarbon Border Adjustments Mechanism CIFcost,insurance freightCIICarbon Intensity IndicatorCLCInternational Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution DamageCO2carbon dioxideCPPIContainer Port Performance IndexCTU

47、CodeCode of Practice for Packing of Cargo Transport UnitsDCSIMO Data Collection Systemdwtdead weight tonsEACEast African CommunityEBITearnings before interest and taxesEBITDAearnings before interest,taxes,depreciation and amortizationECAEconomic Commission for AfricaEEDIEnergy Efficiency Design Inde

48、xEEXIEnergy Efficiency Existing Ship IndexEPLengine power limitationEPZsExport Processing ZonesESCAPUnited NationsEconomic Commission for Asia and the PacificESTEnergy Saving TechnologyETSEmission Trading SystemEUEuropean UnionFAL ConventionConvention on Facilitation of International Maritime Traffi

49、cFCLFull Container LoadREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023ixFEU40-foot-equivalent unitFOBfree on boardGDPgross domestic productGHGgreenhouse gasGISISIMO Global Integrated Shipping Information SystemGTgross tonnageHFOheavy fuel oilIAPHInternational Association of Ports and HarborsICTinland container te

50、rminalsIEECInternational Energy Efficiency CertificateILOInternational Labour OrganizationIMFInternational Monetary FundIMOInternational Maritime OrganizationIMLIIMO International Maritime Law InstituteIOPC-FUNDSInternational Oil Pollution Compensation FundsITFInternational Transport Workers Federat

51、ionLDCleast developed countryLLDClandlocked developing countryLLMCConvention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime ClaimsLNGliquified natural gasLPGliquified petroleum gasLPILogistics Performance IndexLSCILiner Shipping Connectivity IndexLSFOlow sulphur fuel oilMARPOLConventionInternational Conven

52、tion for the Prevention of Pollution from ShipsMASSmaritime autonomous surface shipMEPCIMO Marine Environment Protection CommitteeMLC 2006Maritime Labour Convention 2006MLETRUNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records MSC-LEG-FALIMO Maritime Safety,Legal and Facilitation CommitteesMSWsMari

53、time Single WindowsNTFCsNational Trade Facilitation CommitteesOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xOOCLOverseas Orient Container LineOOIL Orient Overseas InternationalOPECOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting CountriesOSBPsOne-Stop Border Post

54、sPAVPort Authority of ValenciaPCSPort Community SystemPDMPort Data ManagementPIDAProgramme for Infrastructure Development in AfricaPPSPort Performance ScorecardRECTSRegional Electronic Cargo Tracking SystemROROroll-on roll-offSAATMSingle African Air Transport MarketSCFIShanghai Containerized Freight

55、 IndexSDGSustainable Development GoalSEEMPShip Energy Efficiency Management PlanShaPoLishaft power limitationSIDSsmall island developing statesSIGMATInterconnected System for the Management of Transit GoodsSOLAS 1974International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea 1974SOx-ECAEmission Control A

56、rea for Sulphur OxidesSTCW 1978Standards of Training,Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers 1978STRsSpecial Trade RegimesTAHTrans-African HighwayTEU20-foot equivalent unitUNUnited NationsUNCITRALUnited Nations Commission on International Trade LawUNCTADUnited Nations Conference on Trade and De

57、velopmentUNECEUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeUNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeVLCCvery large crude carrierVLSFOvery low sulphur fuel oilWMUWorld Maritime UniversityWTOWorld Trade OrganizationREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xiNOTEThe Review of Maritime Transpo

58、rt is a recurrent publication prepared by the UNCTAD secretariat since 1968 with the aim of fostering the transparency of maritime markets and analysing relevant developments.Any factual or editorial corrections that may prove necessary,based on comments made by Governments,will be reflected in a co

59、rrigendum to be issued subsequently.This edition of the Review covers data and events from January 2022 until July 2023.Where possible,every effort has been made to reflect more recent developments.All references to dollars($)are to United States dollars,unless otherwise stated.“Ton”means metric ton

60、(1,000 kg)and“mile”means nautical mile,unless otherwise stated.Because of rounding,details and percentages presented in tables do not necessarily add up to the totals.Two dots(.)in a statistical table indicate that data are not available or are not reported separately.The terms“countries”and“economi

61、es”refer to countries,territories or areas.Since 2014,the Review of Maritime Transport does not include printed statistical annexes.UNCTAD maritime statistics are accessible via the following links:All datasets:http:/stats.unctad.org/maritimeMerchant fleet by flag of registration:http:/stats.unctad.

62、org/fleetShare of the world merchant fleet value by flag of registration:http:/stats.unctad.org/vesselvalue_registrationMerchant fleet by country of ownership:https:/unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=80100Share of the world merchant fleet value by country of beneficial ow

63、nership:http:/stats.unctad.org/vesselvalue_ownershipShip recycling by country:http:/stats.unctad.org/shiprecyclingShipbuilding by country in which built:http:/stats.unctad.org/shipbuildingSeafarer supply:http:/stats.unctad.org/seafarersupplyLiner shipping connectivity index:http:/stats.unctad.org/ls

64、ciLiner shipping bilateral connectivity index:http:/stats.unctad.org/lsbciContainer port throughput:http:/stats.unctad.org/teuPort liner shipping connectivity index:https:/unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=96618Port call performance(Time spent in ports,vessel age and size

65、),annual:http:/stats.unctad.org/portcalls_detail_aPort call performance(Time spent in ports,vessel age&size),semi-annual:http:/stats.unctad.org/portcalls_detail_sa Number of port calls,annual:http:/stats.unctad.org/portcalls_number_aNumber of port calls,semi-annual:http:/stats.unctad.org/portcalls_n

66、umber_sa Seaborne trade:http:/stats.unctad.org/seabornetradeNational maritime country profiles:http:/unctadstat.unctad.org/CountryProfile/en-GB/index.htmlREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xiiVessel groupings used in the Review of Maritime TransportGroup Constituent ship typesOil tankersOil tankersBul

67、k carriersBulk carriers,combination carriersGeneral cargo shipsMulti-purpose and project vessels,roll-on roll-off(ro-ro)cargo,general cargoContainer shipsFully cellular container shipsOther shipsLiquefied petroleum gas carriers,liquefied natural gas carriers,parcel(chemical)tankers,specialized tanke

68、rs,reefers,offshore supply vessels,tugboats,dredgers,cruise,ferries,other non-cargo shipsTotal all shipsIncludes all the above-mentioned vessel typesApproximate vessel-size groups according to commonly used shipping terminologyCrude oil tankersUltra large crude carrier 320,000 dead weight tons(dwt)a

69、nd aboveVery large crude carrier 200,000-319,999 dwtSuezmax crude tanker 125,000-199,999 dwtAframax/Long Range 2 crude tanker 85,000-124,999 dwtPanamax/Long Range 1 crude tanker 55,000-84,999 dwtMedium Range tankers 40,000-54,999 dwtShort Range/Handytankers 25,000-39,000 dwtDry bulk and ore carriers

70、Capesize bulk carrier 100,000 dwt and abovePanamax bulk carrier 65,00099,999 dwtHandymax bulk carrier 40,00064,999 dwtHandysize bulk carrier 10,00039,999 dwtContainer shipsNeo Panamax*Ships that can transit the expanded locks of the Panama Canal with up to a maximum 49 m beam and 366 m length overal

71、l.Panamax Container ships above 3,000 20-foot equivalent units(TEUs)with abeam below 33.2 m,i.e.the largest size vessels that can transit the old locks of the Panama Canal.Post Panamax Fleets with a capacity greater than 15,000 TEUs include some ships that are able to transit the expanded locks.*12-

72、14,999 TEU Neo-Panamax fleet includes some ships which are too large to transit the expanded locks of the Panama Canal based on current official dimension restrictions;15,000+TEU Post-Panamax fleet includes some ships which are able to transit the expanded locks.Source:Clarksons Research.Note:Unless

73、 otherwise indicated,the ships mentioned in the Review of Maritime Transport include all propelled seagoing merchant vessels of 100 gross tons and above,excluding inland waterway vessels,fishing vessels,military vessels,yachts,and fixed and mobile offshore platforms and barges(with the exception of

74、floating production storage and offloading units and drill-ships).REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xiiiFOREWORDIn a world rife with cascading crises geoeconomic fragmentation,retreating development,and climate change maritime trade serves as a stabilizing anchor,holding fast against the turbulent cu

75、rrents of disruption.Over four fifths of all trade in the world flows through the high seas.This includes the crucial trade of food,energy,and other essential goods.As recent trade disruptions,and most notably that of Black Sea food exports due to the war in Ukraine have shown,in our interconnected

76、world,billions of people need open ports and steady ships to eat,keep their lights on,and have their hospitals well-stocked.In a context of rising trade disputes,it is therefore more imperative than ever to correctly gauge the health and prospects of maritime trade.Declining seaborne transport volum

77、es could spell trouble to many developing countries,especially small island developing States which rely almost exclusive on this trade.This,alongside the need to monitor the challenges of the maritime transport industry in its quest for innovation and decarbonization,are the raisons dtre of the UNC

78、TAD Review of Maritime Transport,whose first edition was published 55 years ago.This 2023 edition of the Review of Maritime Transport paints a complex,mixed picture.On the one hand,we estimate that maritime trade volumes will continue to grow for the foreseeable future 2.4 per cent in 2023,and 2.1 p

79、er cent over the next five years.While this represents a slowdown from the average annual rate of maritime trade volume growth of around 3 per cent over the past four decades,it does show the limits of the notion of geoeconomic fragmentation at least in the short-to medium-term,and in terms of volum

80、e.Our Review does however suggest that shipping patterns and trading routes are indeed shifting,perhaps because of growing commercial tensions and a new geography of transport and trade.A clear result of this dynamic is that the average distance travelled for several commodities is increasing.Shipme

81、nts of oil cargo and grain,for example,travelled longer distances in 2023 than any other year on record.On the other hand,we describe a maritime transport industry at a crossroads,with many forces at play reshaping the sectors roles and operating landscape.For one,maritime transport needs to decarbo

82、nize as soon as possible.In 2023,carbon emissions from international shipping were 20 per cent higher than ten years earlier.As the maritime industry embarks on this complex transformative journey towards decarbonization,it must do so while sustaining economic growth.At the same time,world shipping

83、fleet growth is slowing down,and the average age of the world fleet is increasing.Alternative fuels are not yet available at scale and are more costly,and the ships that can use them are also more costly than traditional ships.Furthermore,developing regions,including small island developing States a

84、nd least developed countries,may face higher domestic inflationary pressures due to a limited capacity to mitigate the passthrough effects of energy transition costs in shipping and the associated increase in maritime logistics costs.Another driver of change facing the sector is digitalization.Marit

85、ime logistics is increasingly dependent on more efficient ports and digitalized processes.While the COVID-19 pandemic deeply disrupted global supply chains and logistics,it also led to an increase in innovation in the industry,with an important growth in investment for paperless digital solutions.Cu

86、stoms modernization,port reform,trade facilitation,and the promotion of the use of electronic trade documents will all help to achieve faster transactions,lower costs,and reduce delays.All of this will lead to more efficiency,less waste,and better results for countries and the planet.The Internation

87、al Maritime Organization is discussing economic measures that could generate funds to deal with these complex questions in a holistic manner.Such measures would enable shipping decarbonization and help close the price gap between traditional and alternative fuels,while supporting the scale up of dec

88、arbonization efforts and providing support to developing countries.UNCTAD proposes that an important share of generated funds could be channelled to promote port investment in small island developing States and the least developed countries,including investment in climate change adaptation,trade and

89、 transport reforms,as well as transport and digital connectivity.Such financial and technical support can pave the way to a just and equitable energy transition in maritime transport,and UNCTAD stands ready to support countries in this mission.These and other pressing matters will be the subject of

90、the upcoming Global Supply Chain Forum,co-hosted between UNCTAD and the Government of Barbados,which will take place between 21 and 24 May of next year in Bridgetown.We hope to see you there.Rebeca GrynspanSecretary-General of UNCTADREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xvOVERVIEWSeaborne trade declined

91、by 0.4 per cent in 2022,growth resumes in 2023Shipping continues to navigate COVID-19 post-pandemic trends,the legacies of the 20212022 crunch in global supply chains,a softening in the container shipping market and shifts in shipping and trading patterns arising from the war in Ukraine.Global shipp

92、ing continues to confront multiple challenges,including heightened trade policy and geopolitical tensions and is dealing with changes in globalization patterns.Additionally,shipping must transition to a more sustainable future,decarbonize and embrace digitalization.Being at the intersection of these

93、 forces will influence how the sector adapts to the evolving operational and regulatory landscape while continuing to effectively service global trade.Maritime trade volume contracted marginally by 0.4 per cent in 2022,but UNCTAD projects it will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2023.Indeed,the industry rema

94、ins resilient and UNCTAD expects continued but moderated growth in maritime trade volume(table 1)for the medium term(20242028).Global shipping is also facing concurrent forces that make balancing supply and demand a challenging task for carriers.During 2022,containerized trade,measured in metric ton

95、s,declined by 3.7 per cent.UNCTAD projects it will increase by 1.2 per cent in 2023 and expand by over 3 per cent during the 20242028 period,although this rate is below the long-term growth of about 7 per cent over the previous three decades.On the supply side,container shipping may have entered an

96、overcapacity phase,meaning that carriers will aim at managing capacity using tools such as slippage,idling of vessels or demolition.Table 1 Seaborne trade forecast,20242028(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat calculations,July 2023.Note:UNCTAD projections are based on the estimated el

97、asticities of maritime trade with respect to gross domestic product(GDP),export volumes,investment share in GDP as well as monthly seaborne trade data published by Clarksons Research.They also build on the GDP forecast published in the International Monetary Fund,World Economic Outlook,July 2023.Und

98、oubtedly,the key challenge for the sector is that the maritime industry must embark on a transformative journey towards decarbonization while sustaining economic growth.Balancing environmental sustainability,regulatory compliance and economic demands is vital for a prosperous,equitable and resilient

99、 maritime transport future.Despite uncertainties surrounding future decarbonization measures,including their impact on logistics costs and trade,the sector should remain committed to fleet modernization,renewal of ageing vessel capacity and adopting low-carbon pathways.Amidst regulatory,commercial a

100、nd sustainability pressures,meeting carbon emission targets is a formidable yet positive challenge.Developing regions,including small island developing States(SIDS)and least developed countries(LDCs),may face higher impacts due to a limited capacity to mitigate higher logistics costs.Starting in ear

101、ly 2022,seaborne trade,in particular dry bulk and tanker shipments,has been impacted by the war in Ukraine.The war led to changes in shipping patterns and increased the distances travelled for commodities,especially oil and grain.Growth in ton-miles exceeds growth in tons in 2022,2023 and for 2024 p

102、rojections(figure 1).YearTotal seaborne tradeContainerized trade20242.13.220252.23.220262.23.220272.13.020282.12.9REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xviFigure 1 Seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20002024(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Int

103、elligence Network timeseries(as of July 2023).Note:2023 data are estimated and 2024 are forecasts.In 2022,oil and gas trade volumes witnessed robust annual growth rates,of 6 per cent and 4.6 per cent,respectively.The increase can be attributed to heightened demand for fuel as the pandemic eased and

104、related restrictions were lifted.As spending on energy-intensive services like transport and travel gradually recovered,a return to normalcy contributed to the surge in oil demand.In contrast,containerized and dry bulk shipments declined in 2022.Weakened containerized trade reflects the slowdown in

105、global economic growth,high inflation and normalizing of demand after the unusual surge during the COVID-19 pandemic.Port calls follow these trends in trade,dropping significantly at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic(figure 2).Following a year-to-year drop in the first half of 2022,vessel port call

106、s increased in the second half of 2022.Port calls by tankers reached historical highs while calls by bulk carriers returned to their pre-COVID-19 levels;port calls by container ships are yet to return to their 2019 level.Figure 2 Number of port calls per half year,world total,20182022Source:UNCTAD,b

107、ased on data provided by MarineTraffic,2023.Notes:Ships of 1,000 gross tons(GT)and above.S1 and S2 refer to first and second semesters.Expanding distances for oil and grain cargoIn 2023,oil cargo distances reached long-term highs(figure 3),driven by disruptions from the war in Ukraine.Crude oil and

108、refined products travelled longer distances,as the Russian Federation sought new export markets for its cargo and Europe looked for alternative energy suppliers.-6-4-202468002200320052006200720082009200002120222023TonsTon-miles2024120 000140 000160 000180

109、000200 000220 000240 000260 000280 000S12018S22018S12019S22019S12020S22020S12021S22021S12022S22022Container shipsLiquid bulk carriersDry bulk carriersREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xviiShipments of grains travelled longer distances in 2023 than any other year on record.Although grain shipments fro

110、m Ukraine resumed in 2022 thanks to the Black Sea Initiative,several grain-importing countries had to rely on alternative grain exporters.They are instead buying from the United States of America,or Brazil,which requires longer hauls.Containerized trade distances have tumbled since 2020 but increase

111、d marginally in 2023.Intra-Asian containerized trade,which accounts for the majority of intraregional trade,saw its share increase over the years.As intra-Asian trade is carried over shorter distances,the average distances travelled per ton of container cargo of global containerized trade are relati

112、vely low.The predominance of intra-Asian containerized trade flows reflects global manufacturing patterns with China continuing to serve as the leader in global manufacturing,supported by neighbouring East Asian countries.It also reflects the growing participation of several East Asian countries in

113、regional and global value chains.Figure 3 Average distance travelled,grain,other dry bulk,container and oil cargo,19992024(Nautical miles)Source:UNCTAD secretariat calculations,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network timeseries(as of 8 June 2023).Container shipping connectivity rem

114、ains below pre-COVID-19 levels in small island developing StatesIn the second quarter of 2023,the most-connected economies as measured by the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index(LSCI)were China,followed by the Republic of Korea,Singapore,Malaysia and the United States.In Europe,Spain,the Kingdom of th

115、e Netherlands and Belgium,saw their LSCI increase over this period,while the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland saw its LSCI decline slightly.Most regions recovered in terms of COVID-19 pandemic disruptions and shipping connectivity.By the second quarter of 2023,regional averages f

116、or the LSCI in Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania reached record highs.Meanwhile,the average LSCI for Africa also increased,but remained below its pre-pandemic values.North America and Europe both saw their average LSCI drop in 2022,only recording a recovery in the second quarter of 20

117、23.Regional variations reflect the demand and supply dynamics during and after the pandemic.Asia increased its container trade activity,including intraregional traffic.Europe and North America initially experienced a surge in demand and fleet deployment which subsided as the market stabilized.In con

118、trast,Africa found itself in a middle ground,without a post-COVID-19 boom nor a subsequent weakening.SIDS showed initial signs of recovery in their LSCI but have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.During the pandemic,SIDS in the Indian Ocean,Africa and the Caribbean experienced a decline in LSC

119、I.This was attributed to ships being redeployed to more lucrative European and North American import markets,as well as reduced demand in tourism-dependent island economies.Dry bulk(excluding grain)OilContainerGrain3 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 500042005200620072008

120、20092000002220232024REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xviiiIn 2023,SIDS serving as regional trans-shipment centres,such as Jamaica and the Dominican Republic,resumed their long-term growth trajectory in connectivity,building on their trans-shipment business

121、.However,other SIDS serving as regional hubs,notably Bahamas and Mauritius,have yet to fully recover from the impact of the pandemic.A slow growing fleet,ageing ships and the challenges aheadAs of January 2023,the world fleet consisted of 105,493 vessels of 100 gross tons and above.In 2022,capacity

122、expanded at an annual rate of 3.2 per cent with overall tonnage hitting 2.27 billion dead weight tons(figure 4).Figure 4 The world fleet,19802023(Thousand dead weight tons and annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD calculations,based on data from Clarksons Research,2023.Notes:Propelled seagoing merc

123、hant vessels of 100 GT and above,as of 1 January 2023.Dead weight tons for some individual vessels have been estimated.The container fleet capacity saw an increase of 3.9 per cent,followed by oil tanker fleet growth(3.4 per cent).Meanwhile,bulk carrier capacity grew at a moderated rate of 2.8 per ce

124、nt and gas carriers experienced the highest growth,at 5 per cent.In terms of tonnage delivered in 2022,dry bulk carriers took the lead,followed by oil tankers and container vessels.China,the Republic of Korea and Japan were the top shipbuilding countries,accounting for a significant 93 per cent of t

125、otal tonnage delivered.Over the years,global fleet capacity expansion has seen its ups and downs,reflecting business cycles and trends in shipping,shipbuilding and financing.Between 2005 and 2010,the average annual growth of global dead weight tonns was robust,at 7.1 per cent.However,reflecting the

126、20072008 financial crisis,growth has slowed to an average of 4.9 per cent between 2011 and 2023 due,among other factors,to consolidation in shipbuilding and downsizing of the ship financing market.Since the pandemic,fleet growth has further slowed,averaging 3.1 per cent per year.The global fleet is

127、also ageing.At the start of 2023,commercial ships had an average age of 22.2 years,slightly higher than the previous year.Compared to a decade ago,the global fleet has aged by an average of two years,with over half of the fleet now exceeding 15 years of age.-6-4-2024681012 0500 0001 000 0001 500 000

128、2 000 0002 500 00025894702000420052006200720082009200000222023Dead weight tonsPercentage changeREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xixContainer freight rates returning to

129、pre-pandemic levels Container freight rates were a tale of two halves in 2022.Spot container freight rates soared to record levels by early 2022,reflecting the pandemic-related rebound and global supply chain crisis.Rates declined in the second half of 2022 across most major trade lanes and stabiliz

130、ed in early 2023.The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index,a measure for spot container freight rates from China,plunged by more than 80 per cent to 967 points in June 2023,down from its peak of 5,067 points in January 2022 which was five times higher than its level before COVID-19 in January 2019(fi

131、gure 5).Container carriers achieved unprecedented profits estimated at almost$300 billion in earnings before interest and taxes(EBIT)in 2022.In tandem with spot freight rates,charter rates also experienced a significant decrease in 2022,albeit remaining higher than pre-pandemic levels.Contracted fre

132、ight rates increased in 2022,in line with trends shaping the spot rates and reflecting factors including the mismatch in supply and demand of ship capacity,disruptions in the supply chain,port congestion,cost pressure and trade imbalances.Compared with 2019,the highest increase in contract rates was

133、 seen on routes originating from Asia.Contract freight rates on the AsiaSouth America trade lane surged by 389 per cent in 2022 compared with 2019.Trade imbalances continue to have a large influence on contracted freight rates.Substantially increased transport costs caused inflationary pressures on

134、the broader economy.As container shipping transitioned from the historical boom of 2021,the sector entered a difficult phase.The market normalized and capacity levels shifted with an influx of new container ship capacity in 2023.Capacity is expected to shift further as more container vessels are exp

135、ected to hit the water in 2024 and 2025.Liner operators are adopting different strategies to tackle overcapacity,including rerouting,blank sailing,reducing speed and idling ships.Carriers are pursuing different strategies to build resilience and adapt to the evolving operating environment.Some,such

136、as Maersk,have favoured an integrated approach,offering end-to-end service delivery.Others,such as MSC,have shown an appetite for ship ordering and capacity expansion.Figure 5 Shanghai Containerized Freight Index,monthly spot rates,June 2018June 2023,selected routes Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based o

137、n data from Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network,2023.Abbreviations:40-foot-equivalent unit(FEU),20-foot-equivalent unit(TEU).02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 000June-18July-18August-18September-18October-18November-18December-18January-19February-19March-19April-19May-19June-19July-19August-1

138、9September-19October-19November-19December-19January-20February-20March-20April-20May-20June-20July-20August-20September-20October-20November-20December-20January-21February-21March-21April-21May-21June-21July-21August-21September-21October-21November-21December-21January-22February-22March-22April-

139、22May-22June-22July-22August-22September-22October-22November-22December-22January-23February-23March-23April-23May-23June-23SCFI Comprehensive container freight rate indexSCFI Shanghai,ChinaEurope(base port)container freight rate($/TEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaMediterranean(base port)container freight ra

140、te($/TEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaWest Coast North America(base port)container freight rate($/FEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaEast Coast North America(base port)container freight rate($/FEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaPersian Gulf(Dubai,United Arab Emirates)container freight rate($/TEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaWest Africa(Lagos,

141、Nigeria)container freight rate($/TEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaSouth Africa(Durban,Republic of South Africa)container freight rate($/TEU)SCFI Shanghai,ChinaSouth America(Santos,Brazil)container freight rate($/TEU)REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxMeanwhile,as the container shipping markets weakened,some o

142、f the newer entrants who had been drawn by the soaring freight rates of 20212022,now exited the markets.Some had to suspend operations or exit the market altogether.Others persevered and seized opportunities to increase their market share in liner operations and capacity deployment.A volatile landsc

143、ape for dry bulk freight rates Dry bulk freight rates were highly volatile in 2022 and 2023 due to shifts in demand,port congestion(namely in the first half of 2022),heightened geopolitical tensions,weather-induced disruptions and macroeconomic headwinds,including in China.The war in Ukraine reshape

144、d maritime trade flows,increasing cargo distances and ton-miles.The Baltic Dry Index,which measures shipping prices,fluctuated significantly,with rates peaking in May 2022.Rates fell to pre-pandemic levels by December 2022.In early 2023,freight rates declined further due to a seasonal slowdown and a

145、dverse weather conditions disrupting commodity production.A surge in demand for dry bulk cargo in the second quarter of 2023,triggered by post-pandemic industrial growth in China,led to a rebound in freight rates by mid-year.Tanker freight rates see a strong revivalThe tanker market witnessed a rema

146、rkable recovery in 2022,with both the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and Baltic Clean Tanker Index reaching peak annual values.The war in Ukraine has contributed to sustained rates and has reshaped oil trade patterns.Oil and gas exports from the Russian Federation shifted towards Asia as the Russian Fede

147、ration looked for alternative markets and European countries sought new suppliers to replace energy imports from the Russian Federation.In early 2023,the tanker market continued to show strong earnings due to ongoing geopolitical factors and increased ton-miles.However,uncertainties related to the e

148、nergy transition and compliance with new International Maritime Organization(IMO)requirements,namely the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index(EEXI)and the Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII),may limit effective future tanker carrying capacity.Port cargo handling performance improves after worsening dur

149、ing the pandemicOver the years,there have been gradual improvements to the length of time ships spend in port.However,any progress made was lost during the COVID-19 pandemic,as all vessels spent more time in port.In 2022,the median port time of container ships and liquid cargo carriers remained stab

150、le compared to 2021.In contrast,dry breakbulk carriers recorded a 3 per cent decrease while dry bulk carriers experienced a 3.4 per cent increase.As pandemic-related disruptions eased in the second half of 2022,ship turnaround times improved in most markets.Figure 6 Minutes per container move,by ran

151、ge of call size,top 5 countries by port callsSource:UNCTAD,based on data provided by S&P Global Port Performance Program,2023.00.511.522.533.546 000Minutes per container move,averageCall size(containers loaded and unloaded during one vessel call)ChinaMalaysiaRepublic of KoreaSingaporeUnited States o

152、f AmericaAverage all countriesREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxiCombining time in port with container moves,figure 6 presents port performance as measured by minutes per container move at the country level.Among the top five countries by container ship port calls,Republic of Korea was the fastest

153、for five call size categories whilst the United States recorded the slowest loading and unloading rates.Differences in port performances reflect levels of port automation and the type of traffic handled;larger ports tend to use more automation across cranes and yards.In the United States,most traffi

154、c is from import containers,while the other top four countries handle more trans-shipment and export containers.Disruptions had negative impacts on congestion,port volumes and revenueContainer ships tend to spend more time in ports of developing countries than of developed countries(figure 7).These

155、averages can be explained by a combination of faster clearance times,better infrastructure and higher labour productivity.During the COVID-19 pandemic,however,waiting times surged more in developed countries,even exceeding those of developing countries in early 2022.As demand for containerized goods

156、 went up,especially during periods of lockdowns combined with economic stimulus packages,ports could not cope with the surge in volumes and experienced congestion,especially in North American and some European ports.Figure 7 Average waiting times of container ships at port in hours,monthly,January 2

157、016July 2023Source:UNCTAD,based on data provided by Clarksons Research,2023.Note:The waiting time is estimated based on the time between when a vessel first enters an anchorage associated with a port group(or a port,if an anchorage shape has not been detected)and when it first enters a berth within

158、the port.Data from ports participating in the UNCTAD TrainForTrade port management programme confirms the impact of disruptions on port volumes and revenue growth rates.Growth rates declined in 2019 and 2020 but experienced a strong recovery in 2021 before falling again in 2022.Payroll as a proporti

159、on of total revenue declined,an indicator of limited wage increases and cautious recruitment.Training expenditure as a percentage of payroll also remained low(ranging from 0.3 per cent to 1.1 per cent from 2016 to 2022),with the lowest value recorded in 2022.While some training shifted online,the ov

160、erall level of investment appears insufficient given the transformative trends in the industry.Facilitating maritime trade enhances port performance and hinterland connectivityPort delays often indicate port inefficiencies.These are commonly attributed to administrative and institutional challenges

161、around clearing goods.Investing in digitalization and technology can help improve predictability and reliability,creating efficiencies and reducing delays.When it comes to efficient ports,smooth sailing depends on well-oiled regulatory processes.Certain trade facilitation measures can unlock smoothe

162、r operations.When correlating the distributions of the World Banks Container Port Performance Index by country according to their implementation status 02468101214Jan 2016Jul 2016Jan 2017Jul 2017Jan 2018Jul 2018Jan 2019Jul 2019Jan 2020Jul 2020Jan 2021Jul 2021Jan 2022Jul 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Developed

163、 countriesDeveloping countriesREVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxiifor relevant articles of the Agreement on Trade Facilitation of the World Trade Organization,there are positive correlations for certain measures such as Risk Management(article 7.4),Authorized Operators(article 7.7),Border Agency Co

164、operation(article 8)and Single Window(article 10.4),which may hold the key to better port performance.In 2024,IMO will introduce a significant development in port infrastructure with the mandatory implementation of Maritime Electronic Single Windows.This mandate will have far-reaching implications,r

165、equiring enhanced interoperability and seamless coordination among port agencies.The Maritime Electronic Single Window aims to establish a robust digital framework to optimize port operations.This calls for strong support and focus from all IMO members,especially developing countries and LDCs,which

166、lag behind in implementing similar WTO measures under the Agreement on Trade Facilitation.The digital transformation of ports involves connecting platforms and establishing a unified electronic data submission point.Interconnecting foreign trade and customs platforms using standard data formats stre

167、amlines processes and reduces trade costs.ASYCUDA is a notable example,modernizing customs operations and facilitating international trade.Through its digital platforms,ASYCUDA enables seamless data exchange and integrates processes among regulatory agencies,customs and government bodies.The ASYCUDA

168、 Single Window empowers traders to submit import and export documents electronically,using a single interface.This simplifies procedures,enhances port performance and promotes transparency for both traders and customs officials.New environmental requirements could mean additional red tape and additi

169、onal controls when importing goods.The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)is an instrument within the European Green Deal which mobilizes funding for sectors related to climate change.Starting on 1 October 2023,importers will have to pay an import tariff on carbon-intensive goods entering the E

170、uropean Union.Border agencies will have to report carbon emissions for products using CBAM certificates,which represent one ton of carbon dioxide.The administrative workload associated with CBAM certification will occur before the border crossing.These new carbon mechanisms could change the trade fa

171、cilitation process and increase compliance procedures prior to customs clearance.Regulation to facilitate acceptance and use of electronic bills of lading In a major recent development,in July 2023,legislation was adopted in the United Kingdom,to ensure that electronic trade documents,including elec

172、tronic equivalents to negotiable bills of lading,enjoy the same legal recognition as paper-based documents.With international contracts often subject to English law,by agreement of the parties,the new Electronic Trade Documents Act,2023,is expected to boost the use of electronic bills of lading and

173、reduce delays across global trading networks.In some other jurisdictions,relevant laws have been passed based on the UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records and national policymakers are encouraged to consider similar adjustments to national legislation.At the same time,managing the gr

174、owing cyber risks inherent in electronic transactions is likely to demand greater attention by policymakers and industry stakeholders alike,given the increasingly rapid pace at which technology is evolving.Work is also under way under the auspices of UNCITRAL Working Group VI to prepare a new legal

175、instrument on Negotiable Multimodal Transport Documents.This addresses the growing need for financing in international trade and will establish the legal recognition of negotiable multimodal transport documents(including electronic records)as documents of title,similar to negotiable bills of lading.

176、From the perspective of small traders,particularly in developing countries,it will be important to ensure that a shipper or final consignee in any cargo claim against a multimodal transport operator would be protected by mandatory minimum standards of carrier liability,as is already the case for cla

177、ims under negotiable bills of lading that are covered by mandatory cargo liability conventions.However,at present,it is not envisaged that liability issues will be addressed as part of the instrument.All stakeholders are encouraged to take an active interest in the work to ensure the legal instrumen

178、t currently being developed will be fit for purpose and commercially acceptable.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxiiiMARPOL the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships MARPOL is among the most important legal instruments relating to international shipping.Developed under

179、 the auspices of IMO,MARPOL Technical Annex VI includes key regulatory measures for decarbonizing the shipping industry and reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from ships.With international shipping responsible for around 3 per cent of global GHG emissions,decarbonization continues to be an urgent

180、 priority.Regulation can play a key role in driving energy efficiency in the shipping sector.Short-term decarbonization measures include the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index(EEXI)and the Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)under Annex VI of MARPOL.These need to be implemented from 2023 onwards and a

181、re expected to add to the impact of earlier rules,namely the Energy Efficiency Design Index(EEDI)and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan(SEEMP).A key development took place in July 2023 as the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee at its eightieth session adopted the Revised GHG Reducti

182、on Strategy and the GHG reduction plans moved closer to finalization.Before these are implemented,a comprehensive impact assessment of the proposed measures will need to be conducted,in accordance with the workplan and the revised procedure for assessing impacts on States.Charting a course towards s

183、hipping decarbonizationShipping is under pressure to decarbonize as soon as possible,with momentum arising from the confluence of regulatory and commercial drivers and growing demands for sustainability,as well as scrutiny from customers,partners and the public.However,meeting the targets set out in

184、 IMO Revised Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships remains a challenge.The shipping industry faces uncertainty in determining the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions and transition to lower or zero-carbon fuels.Carriers need to modernize and renew their ageing fleets and switch

185、 to low carbon whilst being unclear about the best alternative fuels and green technologies.Complicating matters,ships have long lifespans with some vessels being too old to retrofit and too young to scrap.Figures 8 and 9 show trends in carbon emissions based on flag of registration and economy of o

186、wnership.Registries have different ship types,sizes and ages registered under their flags,including highly efficient and less efficient vessels,which can impact their overall emissions profile.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxivFigure 8 Carbon dioxide emissions,tons,by main flags of registration,2

187、012 and 2022 Source:UNCTAD,based on data provided by Marine Benchmark,June 2023.Note:Carbon dioxide emissions from vessels main and auxiliary engines calculated bunker fuel from AIS(Automatic Identification System).20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100 000 000 120 000 000 140 000 000 Liber

188、iaPanamaMarshall IslandsHong Kong,ChinaSingaporeMaltaChinaBahamasJapanDanish International Register of ShippingGreeceInternational Shipping Register of MadeiraUnited States of AmericaCyprusItalyNorwegian International Ship RegisterRepublic of KoreaIndonesiaKingdom of the NetherlandsRussian Federatio

189、nUnited KingdomBermudaGermanyIsle of ManIndiaAntigua and BarbudaNorwayMalaysiaBrazilCayman IslandsInternational French RegisterViet NamTrkiye20122022REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxvFigure 9 Carbon dioxide emissions,tons,by main economies of ownership,2012 and 2022 Source:UNCTAD,based on data pro

190、vided by Marine Benchmark,June 2023.Note:Carbon dioxide emissions from vessels main and auxiliary engines,calculated bunker fuel from AIS.Panama,Liberia and the Marshall Islands,the worlds three leading flags of registration,collectively account for over one third of global carbon dioxide emissions,

191、reflecting their market share in tonnage.Emissions assigned to flags of registration can provide an indication of how emissions are distributed across the global fleet and highlight the oversight that may be required.While flag states must ensure compliance,it is the shipowners that need to invest i

192、n the future fleet,fuels and onboard green technology.Decisions made by shipowners will also shape the emissions profile of the global fleet and its ability to meet the IMO GHG emission targets.Between 2012 and 2022,the share of carbon dioxide emissions of the top three shipowning economies,namely C

193、hina,Japan and Greece increased.ChinaJapanGreeceUnited States of AmericaHong Kong,ChinaGermanySingaporeRepublic of KoreaDenmarkNorwayBermudaUnited KingdomTaiwan Province of ChinaSwitzerlandKingdom of the NetherlandsFranceUnited Arab EmiratesItalyTrkiyeRussian FederationIndonesiaIndiaCyprusQatarBelgi

194、umMonacoCanadaMalaysiaViet Nam20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100 000 000 120 000 000 20122022REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxviIt will be important to assess the carbon footprint of the global fleet while considering the roles of the country of the flag and the country of ownership a

195、nd the implications of their decisions regarding carbon emissions monitoring,reporting and action.It is crucial for both flag States and ship owning economies to intensify their efforts in improving the carbon emission performance of the global fleet.Shipowners face a conundrumShipowners must decide

196、 whether to renew the fleet now while still lacking clarity about alternative fuel,green technology options and the regulatory regime.Uncertainty about the fleet renewal timelines and constraints caused by shipbuilding yard capacity and higher building prices are also complicating investment decisio

197、ns.Ports and terminals face similar challenges when considering investing in equipment or terminals.Although total emissions have continued to climb during the last decade(figure 10),the 2023 IMO Revised GHG Strategy includes an enhanced common ambition to,inter alia,reduce the total annual GHG emis

198、sions from international shipping by at least 20 per cent,striving for 30 per cent by 2030,compared to 2008.To achieve this new goal,effective supply of ship carrying capacity remains uncertain.It depends on whether operators delay or cancel newbuildings and on the potential impact on vessel speeds

199、under the new IMO rules.Compliance with IMO measures(EEXI,CII)is expected to usher in lower sailing speeds and alter the effective capacity supplied.To achieve a good Carbon Intensity Indicator score,(A,B and C ratings,which indicate a low carbon intensity),ships will need to operate more efficientl

200、y,notably by optimizing routes,fuels and speed.In 2022,two thirds of the world fleet performed within the A to C rating,which indicates compliance.However,by 2026,this share would drop to 49 per cent if no measures are taken to make improvements and reduce carbon intensity.Figure 10 Carbon dioxide e

201、missions by main vessel types,tons,January 2012March 2023Source:UNCTAD based on data provided by Marine Benchmark,June 2023.Notes:Carbon dioxide emissions from vessels main and auxiliary engines calculated bunker fuel from AIS.Abbreviation:Roll on roll off(RORO).Collaboration is key to decarbonizati

202、onWhile logistics,digitalization,hydrodynamics and measures such as carbon capture and storage have the potential to curb a share of GHG emissions from shipping,the greatest potential to make a significant difference lies in switching to low or zero-carbon fuels.Shipping needs to replace fossil fuel

203、s with alternatives that emit little or no GHGs across their entire life cycle(well-to-wake).While the energy transition in shipping is still in its infancy,some progress is under way,with one third of the tonnage on order in 2022 capable of using alternative fuels.0100 000 000200 000 000300 000 000

204、400 000 000500 000 000600 000 000700 000 000800 000 000900 000 0001 000 000 000Jan 2012Jun 2012Nov 2012Apr 2013Sep 2013Feb 2014Jul 2014Dec 2014May 2015Oct 2015Mar 2016Aug 2016Jan 2017Jun 2017Nov 2017Apr 2018Sep 2018Feb 2019Jul 2019Dec 2019May 2020Oct 2020Mar 2021Aug 2021Jan 2022Jun 2022Nov 2022Servi

205、ce and miscellaneousOffshorePassengerVehicle and ROROContainerDry bulk and general cargoTankersMar 2023REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxviiImplementing alternative fuels on a large scale requires significantly transforming fuel production and distribution value chains.It also involves multiple sta

206、keholders across the shipping,port,energy and finance sectors.Swift intervention at the policy and regulatory level is needed to stimulate demand for alternative fuels,green technologies and fleets,and encourage industry to invest.Decarbonizing shipping by 2050 will require large investments,with so

207、me estimates suggesting an additional$8 billion to$28 billion annually,to enable ships to decarbonize by this date.Fuel infrastructure investments are expected to surpass onboard investments.Scaling up fuel production,distribution and bunkering infrastructure to supply 100 per cent carbon-neutral fu

208、els by 2050 will require annual investments of around$28 billion to$90 billion.Estimates suggest that full decarbonization could raise annual fuel costs by 70 to 100 per cent compared to current levels.Shipping cannot decarbonize on its own.Decarbonization efforts should bring together the broader i

209、ndustry,including carriers,ports,manufacturers,shippers,investors,energy producers and distributors.As an example,the COP26 Clydebank Declaration,which commits to establishing green shipping corridors sought to leverage collaboration.Green corridors are collaborative routes involving multiple stakeh

210、olders operating between two ports.The objective is threefold:to provide bunkering options for vessels using low or zero-carbon fuels,facilitate testing of various solutions and support pioneering green initiatives.Since the signing of the Clydebank Declaration,21 green shipping corridor initiatives

211、 have emerged.Experiences with green shipping corridors will vary by region and will entail both challenges and opportunities.Going forward,it will be important to ensure inclusive green shipping corridors that also benefit developing countries,particularly SIDS and LDCs.Monitoring the impact of dec

212、arbonization costs Some of the factors hindering a more rapid pace of decarbonization in shipping include the availability and cost of alternative fuels,the maturity of available technology,technical feasibility,safety,bunkering infrastructure,on-board storage,crew skills and ship and engine design.

213、The cost implications,in particular the cost of alternative fuels,need to be monitored and assessed to improve understanding of their impact and ways to mitigate their negative effects and ensure a smooth transition.Fuel costs already account for a significant portion of overall ship voyage and oper

214、ating costs.Transitioning to cleaner fuels will further add to expenses.Depending on vessel size,efficiency and distance,fuel can account for up to two thirds of overall expenses.The price of alternative fuels is still high compared to conventional fuels.Small island developing States and least deve

215、loped countries impacted by cost of decarbonization One potential consequence of decarbonization is the impact on maritime logistics costs and the ripple effect on trade and economic output,especially in developing regions.Increased investment in ship capacity,alternative fuels and green technologie

216、s,as well as lower sailing speeds,are all expected to result in increased maritime logistics costs.The shift to cleaner fuels will impact the cost structure of shipping operations.Impacts are likely to be stronger for many SIDS and LDCs,who already pay more for transport in international trade and h

217、ave little capacity to mitigate higher maritime logistics costs.In 2021,UNCTAD conducted a Comprehensive Impact Assessment of the proposed IMO short-term GHG reduction measures,namely EEXI and CII.UNCTAD estimated an increase in maritime logistics costs of 2.7 per cent under the median scenario,with

218、 an increase of time at sea of 2.8 per cent and an increase in average maritime shipping costs of 1.5 per cent in 2030.Developing coastal countries,including SIDS and LDCs,are shown to experience a bigger decline in their gross domestic product(GDP)and in their import and export flows,when compared

219、with developed coastal countries.A more recent UNCTAD assessment suggests that increases in global maritime logistics costs would alter trade flows.Hypothetical rises of 10,30 and 50 per cent in maritime logistics costs produced negative changes in trade(0.11,0.32 and 0.60 per cent median reduction)

220、and in GDP(0.01,0.04 and 0.08 per cent median reduction,respectively).Based on the global GDP of US$104 trillion in 2022,a reduction of 0.08 per cent would be equivalent to a reduction of global GDP of about US$80 billion.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxviiiMonitoring the evolution of freight rat

221、es and costs of the energy transition is crucial.The formulas used to calculate freight rates and surcharges,including fuel surcharges,are generally an issue of concern for shippers,who argue that the setting of freight rates and surcharges requires more clarity.As the energy transition in shipping

222、accelerates,pricing and charging mechanisms for alternative fuels will require careful consideration as they affect the costs faced by carriers,shippers and trade.Understanding how freight rates and new,low or zero-carbon bunker fuel prices will be determined and incorporated into final costs is imp

223、ortant.A mechanism that ensures transparent,fair and sustainable freight rate and surcharge price setting practices will be required.Towards a just transition The nationality of most ships(their flag)is different from the nationality of their owners while international trade involves two or more cou

224、ntries.All ships that trade internationally must comply with the same multilateral GHG emission-reduction rules.Fragmented solutions and exemptions in international shipping can lead to suboptimal outcomes.A universal regulatory framework for decarbonization that applies to all ships,irrespective of

225、 their flags of registration,country of ownership and area of operation is critical to avoid a two-speed decarbonization process and ensure a level playing field.For developing countries,a multilateral solution adopted under the auspices of IMO,which considers the special needs for assistance of the

226、 most vulnerable economies,will provide a workable outcome and avoid fragmented unilateral approaches.To protect the special needs of vulnerable economies and mitigate the effects of climate change on these States,the“Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities”principle w

227、ill need to be borne in mind.IMO is currently considering a range of midterm GHG mitigation measures that encompass both technical and economic aspects.Technical aspects,such as fuel standards,establish parameters for specific energy efficiencies.Economic elements such as a levy or contribution paid

228、 in relation to GHG emissions from fuels may incentivize action,promote the competitiveness of alternative fuels and narrow the cost gap with conventional heavy fuels.The economic component of the proposed IMO midterm measures could also generate funds to scale up decarbonization efforts and provide

229、 support to developing countries grappling with higher maritime logistics costs.An important share of generated funds could be channelled to support investment for SIDS and LDCs in ports,including investment in climate change adaptation,trade and transport reforms,as well as transport and digital co

230、nnectivity.These investments would enable vulnerable economies to alleviate the costs of transitioning to low or zero-carbon shipping,including increased maritime logistics costs.The funds could also be used to tap into emerging business opportunities arising from alternative fuel production,storage

231、,bunkering and distribution.Economic measures can help achieve the twin objectives of decarbonizing shipping while ensuring a just and equitable energy transition.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxixPolicy recommendations 1.Ensure food and energy security Grain and fertilizer exports need to be ens

232、ured,such as through the Black Sea Initiative and the Memorandum of Understanding on trade facilitation of food and fertilizers from the Russian Federation.The international community should support investments in transport infrastructure for developing countries to ensure sustainable and resilient

233、food and energy security.2.Support investment in the renewal of the global ageing fleet To encourage investment in ship carrying capacity,national and international regulations must minimize uncertainty that prevents shipowners timely investment in new and modern vessels.Monitor trends in ship finan

234、ce for both fleet renewal and green investment,and scale up financing and investment levels.Monitor developments in shipbuilding yard capacity.Share information,allow access to relevant data and conduct research to improve understanding of fleet renewal and capacity expansion challenges.Upgrade skil

235、l sets and ensure that crew receive adequate training in connection with the latest technologies and the use of alternative fuels and related shipboard systems.3.Facilitate the fuel transition and an equitable decarbonization process Clear targets for low and zero-carbon fuels in shipping are vital

236、to attract private sector investment and address climate change,as set out in the Paris Agreement.A strong regulatory framework aligned with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is crucial for protecting the environment.International regulations should enable a level playing field and promote

237、 measures to lower the cost or the price gap between alternative and conventional marine fuels.Economic measures such as a levy or a carbon/GHG price can support the energy transition and incentivize investment in alternative fuels and green technologies for ships.The regulatory framework must ensur

238、e a just and equitable transition.Economic measures such as a carbon levy can generate funds to help developing countries reduce maritime logistics costs,enhance their climate resilience and seize energy-related business opportunities.Industry and multilateral institutions should invest in sustainab

239、le port facilities,clean energy marine hubs and green shipping corridors.Close collaboration among stakeholders can also ensure a sufficient supply of low-carbon alternative fuels.4.Assess readiness,maturity and safety of alternative fuels and impacts of policy measures on developing countries The r

240、eadiness and availability of alternative fuels and vessel designs must be assessed,along with their regulatory and safety maturity levels.Continue and regularly update the assessments of the impacts of the decarbonization of international shipping on the most vulnerable economies,which often face hi

241、gher freight rates and heavily rely on maritime transport for trade and economic development.5.Improve understanding of alternative fuel costs,monitor their implications for freight costs and surcharges and set up a mechanism to guide the setting of these costs Given the volatility of freight market

242、s and uncertain demand and supply associated with the energy transition in shipping,industry and policymakers need to invest in improving research and analysis for better understanding of freight market trends associated with the fuel transition in shipping.Monitor trends in alternative fuel prices

243、and surcharges and improve understanding of issues at stake.Insights gained will inform the setting of freight rates and surcharges and help ensure transparent and competitive freight markets.REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023xxx6.Reform and invest in port efficiency and performance Ports can boost e

244、fficiency through digitalization,trade facilitation and sustainable infrastructure.Stakeholder collaboration strengthens port performance and resilience.Port performance metrics inform decision-making and foster transparency.Governments should encourage publicprivate collaboration in policy reforms

245、to enhance port infrastructure,operations and facilitate exports,imports and transit at ports.Simplifying customs processes is proven to increase sector efficiency.7.Promote the use of electronic trade documents and related regulatory reform Promoting the use of electronic trade documents,including

246、electronic bills of lading,will lead to faster transactions,lower costs and reduce costly delays.A suitable legal framework needs to be in place to make it easier to use electronic alternatives to traditional paper documentation,in particular to the negotiable bill of lading.Policymakers should take

247、 note of recent regulatory developments such as those in the United Kingdom and elsewhere to ensure the full legal recognition of electronic bills of lading as equivalent to traditional paper documents and,where necessary,develop relevant national legislation.With greater electronic interactions the

248、re are potentially growing cyber risks,which need to be effectively managed.UNCITRAL Working Group VI is developing a legal instrument for negotiable multimodal transport documents.All stakeholders are encouraged to actively participate in this work so the instrument will be both fit for purpose and

249、 commercially acceptable,including from the perspective of small traders in developing countries.UNCTAD will continue to support efforts aimed at implementing sustainable and resilient freight transportation and trade logistics.Insights,knowledge products,tools and guidance developed under UNCTAD th

250、ree pillars of work spanning research,technical assistance and capacity building and intergovernmental negotiations will continue to be leveraged.As an example,countries can tap into the UNCTAD technical assistance toolbox(https:/unctad.org/projects/TOOLBOX)including the programmes on Sustainable an

251、d Resilient Transport and Logistics Services,the Automated System for Customs Data ASYCUDA,Trade Facilitation and Strengthening Knowledge and Skills for Sustainable Economic Development TrainForTrade.Global shipping continues to confront multiple challenges,including heightened trade policy and geop

252、olitical tensions and is dealing with changes in globalization patterns.Additionally,shipping must transition to a more sustainable future,decarbonize and embrace digitalization.Being at the intersection of these forces will influence how the sector adapts to the evolving operational and regulatory

253、landscape while continuing to effectively service global trade.Maritime trade volume contracted marginally by 0.4 per cent in 2022,but UNCTAD projects it will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2023.Indeed,the industry remains resilient and UNCTAD expects continued but moderated growth in maritime trade volume

254、 for the medium term(20242028).During 2022,containerized trade,measured in metric tons,declined by 3.7 per cent.UNCTAD projects it will increase by 1.2 per cent in 2023 and expand by over 3 per cent during the 20242028 period,although this rate is below the long-term growth of about 7 per cent over

255、the previous three decades.Starting in early 2022,seaborne trade,in particular dry bulk and tanker shipments,has been impacted by the war in Ukraine.The war led to changes in shipping patterns and increased the distances travelled for commodities,especially oil and grain.Growth in ton-miles exceeds

256、growth in tons in 2022,2023 and for 2024 projections.In 2022,oil and gas trade volumes witnessed robust annual growth rates,of 6 per cent and 4.6 per cent,respectively.The increase can be attributed to heightened demand for fuel as the pandemic eased and related restrictions were lifted.As spending

257、on energy-intensive services like transport and travel gradually recovered,a return to normalcy contributed to the surge in oil demand.In contrast,containerized and dry bulk shipments declined in 2022.Weakened containerized trade reflects the slowdown in global economic growth,high inflation and nor

258、malizing of demand after the unusual surge during the COVID-19 pandemic.In 2023,oil cargo distances reached long-term highs,driven by disruptions from the war in Ukraine.Crude oil and refined products travelled longer distances,as the Russian Federation sought new export markets for its cargo and Eu

259、rope looked for alternative energy suppliers.Shipments of grains travelled longer distances in 2023 than any other year on record.Although grain shipments from Ukraine resumed in 2022 thanks to the Black Sea Initiative,several grain-importing countries had to rely on alternative grain exporters.They

260、 are instead buying from the United States of America,or Brazil,which requires longer hauls.Containerized trade distances have tumbled since 2020 but increased marginally in 2023.Intra-Asian containerized trade,which accounts for the majority of intraregional trade,saw its share increase over the ye

261、ars.As intra-Asian trade is carried over shorter distances,the average distances travelled per ton of container cargo of global containerized trade are relatively low.The predominance of intra-Asian containerized trade flows reflects global manufacturing patterns with China continuing to serve as th

262、e leader in global manufacturing,supported by neighbouring East Asian countries.It also reflects the growing participation of several East Asian countries in regional and global value chains.1INTERNATIONALMARITIME TRADE1.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRADE3Box 1.1 Persistent challenges impeding global econ

263、omic growth and trade in 2022 and 2023In 2022,global domestic product increased by 3.2 per cent,half the rate of the 6.1 per cent recorded in 2021(a).The war in Ukraine and other interconnected shocks impacted global economic performance,leading to a cost-of-living crisis.Growing poverty,hunger and

264、debt distress reversed progress on several Sustainable Development Goals,midway to their 2030 deadline.Global inflation reached a multi-decade high of about 8 per cent in 2022 and early 2023.Inflation rates vary by country groupings,with developing countries expected to reach 7.3 per cent and advanc

265、ed economies 3.3 per cent in 2023(IMF).The Middle East and Africa recorded the highest consumer price increases,particularly during the first quarter of 2023(UNCTAD,2023b).Energy prices,particularly gas and coal prices,reached unprecedented highs in 2022,boosting import bills in 2022 and impacting t

266、he most vulnerable households.Prices also affected food security;between January 2020 and May 2023,the FAO food price index rose by 21 per cent,although global food prices have displayed a downward trend since mid-2022.This was due to several reasons,including trade-enabling conditions provided by t

267、he Black Sea Initiative(see section B.3).To combat inflation,central banks around the world raised interest rates from the end of 2021.The tightening of monetary policy has increased existing debt costs and made new financing more expensive for many developing countries.It has also constrained indus

268、trial production and demand growth.There is significant uncertainty about growth prospects,with downside factors such as geopolitical risks associated with the war in Ukraine and trade tensions,inflation and financial vulnerability negatively impacting the outlook.Global growth projections remain mo

269、dest for 2023(3.2 per cent)and 2024(2.9 per cent)(a),supported by the reopening of the Chinese economy.Asia,particularly India,South Asia and Central Asia are projected to record the highest growth,whereas other regions will mostly see very low growth.Global inflation is projected to remain persiste

270、ntly elevated in 2023,with high food and energy prices potentially deepening the cost-of-living crisis.It is expected to remain above central bank targets in 2023 and above the 20002019 average and to gradually decline,reaching pre-pandemic levels,towards the end of 2024(a).A.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME

271、TRADE FLOWS1.Maritime trade volume contracted in 2022 and is expected to grow at a slow paceInternational seaborne trade volume contracted by 0.4 per cent in 2022,reaching 12,027 million tons,down from 12,072 million tons in 2021.This drop in performance comes after a strong rebound in 2021 but is d

272、warfed by the sharp decline observed in 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.The 2022 performance reflects the normalization that followed the extraordinary market surge in 2021.Several factors influenced the weak growth in maritime trade flows in 2022(see box 1.1).Weaker global economic growt

273、h,high inflation impacting consumer spending,the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine,and strict COVID-19 containment measures affecting the economic and trade performance of China had a particular impact(Clarksons Research,2023a and ICC,2023).Maritime trade volume contracted marginally by 0.4 pe

274、r cent in 2022,but UNCTAD projects it will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2023.Indeed,the industry remains resilient and UNCTAD expects continued but moderated growth in maritime trade volume(table 1)for the medium term(20242028).Global shipping is also facing concurrent forces that make balancing supply a

275、nd demand a challenging task for carriers.During 2022,containerized trade,measured in metric tons,declined by 3.7 per cent.UNCTAD projects it will increase by 1.2 per cent in 2023 and expand by over 3 per cent during the 20242028 period,although this rate is below the long-term growth of about 7 per

276、 cent over the previous three decades.On the supply side,container shipping may have entered an overcapacity phase,meaning that carriers will aim at managing capacity using tools such as slippage,idling of vessels or demolition.4REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023Box 1.1 Persistent challenges impeding

277、 global economic growth and trade in 2022 and 2023(cont.)Merchandise trade growth has also been slowing down.In 2022,volumes increased modestly by 2.7 per cent,representing a sharp decline from the 9.4 per cent rebound witnessed in 2021(c).During the first quarter of 2023,trade grew by 1.9 per cent,

278、driven by the revival of economic activity in China,and by an increase in the trade of road vehicles and pharmaceuticals(UNCTAD,2023c).During the last two years,trade grew more in value terms than in volume terms,driven mainly by rising commodity prices and inflation.The outlook for global trade for

279、 2023 is pessimistic,with an expected annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent(c)and-0.6 per cent for the second quarter of 2023(b).Trade growth is projected to improve to 3.2 per cent in 2024(c).Sources:IMF(2023)World Economic Outlook 2023 Update.Gloomy and More Uncertain,July 2023;OECD(2023)Economic Out

280、look,Volume 2023 Issue 1,June 2023;UNCTAD(2023a)Nowcast;UNCTAD(2023b)Pulse of the Global Crisis;UNCTAD(2023c)Global Trade Update,June 2023:Global trade growth returns but outlook is poor);United Nations(2023)World Economic Situation and Prospects,Mid-year update,May 2023 and WTO(2023)Global Trade Ou

281、tlook and Statistics,5 April 2023.Notes:(a)reflects projections by IMF July 2023;(b)by UNCTAD Nowcast,last accessed on 28 July 2023 and(c)by WTO-April 2023.Bearing in mind the ongoing uncertainty and downside risks surrounding the economic prospects,UNCTAD projects total seaborne trade to grow by 2.

282、4 per cent in 2023,an improvement over the contraction of 2022.UNCTAD forecasts1 maritime trade to expand at an average annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent during the period 20242028(table 1.1).This is below the 3 per cent historical average growth rate of the past three decades.2.Above-average growt

283、h in energy trade carried in tankers and moderate growth for dry bulk trade projected for 2023In 2022,seaborne trade volumes continued to be dominated mainly by dry bulk and oil shipments,followed by containerized trade(figure 1.1).Oil2 and gas3 trade volumes witnessed the highest annual growth rate

284、s among cargo types in 2022,at 6 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively.In the case of oil,this growth rate,as well as the rates projected for 2023 and 2024,significantly exceeds the 10-year average compound rates of the periods 19922002,20022012 and 20122022(Clarksons,2023e).This reflects greater d

285、emand for fuels with the easing of the pandemic and the return to normality leading to spending on energy-intensive services such as transport and travel,marking a recovery from the lows of 20202021.In addition,factors such as energy security and geopolitics have also contributed to this growth.Thes

286、e factors are expected to persist in 2023,leading to further growth in the energy trade and the gas trade in particular(Clarksons,2023g).This is primarily driven by the need for enhanced energy security and a growing environmental agenda.In contrast,containerized and dry bulk shipments declined by-3

287、.7 and-2.9 per cent respectively in 2022.The performance of containerized trade in the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 largely reflects Table 1.1 International maritime trade development forecast,20242028(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat calculations and forecasts pu

288、blished by Clarksons Research(July 2023).Note:UNCTAD projections are based on the estimated elasticities of maritime trade concerning GDP,export volumes,investment share in GDP as well as monthly seaborne trade data published by Clarksons Research.They also build on the GDP forecast published in the

289、 International Monetary Fund,July 2023 World Economic Output.YearTotal seaborne tradeContainerized trade20242.13.220252.23.220262.23.220272.13.020282.12.91.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRADE5the less favourable macroeconomic trends and a return to normal after the unusual post-COVID-19 surge in container

290、trade demand,which expanded at a solid 6.2 per cent over 2020.For 2023,UNCTAD forecasts containerized trade volumes to increase by 1.2 per cent.The outlook for containerized trade remains weak in 2023 given the overall macroeconomic and operating landscape.A potential improvement in global economic

291、conditions and the recovery of China from the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent economic slowdown could support sector performance during the second semester of 2023(Clarksons,2023f).However,UNCTAD forecasts a growth rebound starting in 2024 of around 3 per cent p.a.(table 1.

292、1).These growth rates remain well below the average rates witnessed during the periods 19922002(8.7 per cent)and 20022012(7.2 per cent)(Clarksons,2023e).In 2022,dry bulk shipments declined due to the disrupted Ukrainian exports,high energy prices(which affected various energy-intensive industries th

293、at use dry bulk commodities as an input)and trends in the Chinese economy,including the sharp decline in investment in the Chinese real estate sector(Clarksons,2023b and Danish Ship Finance,2022).Demand for major dry bulks improved in 2023 driven by subsequent economic recovery in China.Grain and mi

294、nor bulk shipments totalled 535 and 2,117 million tons respectively,representing a 3.8 and a 1.9 per cent growth rate compared to 2022(Clarksons,2023e).Bulk demand is projected to grow modestly within the 1.52.5 per cent range in 2023(BIMCO,2023).Improvements in bulk trade could materialize in 2024,

295、depending on the easing of the global macroeconomic situation,increased coal consumption and production in China and India,the pace of the energy transition,and the war in Ukraine.3.Distance travelled by sea of refined oil products,crude oil and grain reaches record highs Seaborne trade,both in tons

296、 and in ton-miles declined in 2022.In 2023 and 2024 ton-miles are projected to grow more than tons,reflecting growth in distances travelled,with the gap between the two reducing in 2024(figure 1.2).Closely monitoring trends in ton-miles,as discussed in sections B.1 and B.2,is essential to understand

297、 if a long-term shift in the geography of shipping and trade is at play.This assessment also involves examining key factors such as the impact of the war in Ukraine on trading and shipping patterns,the pursuit of energy security,and the adoption of low-carbon energy sources.These elements are signif

298、icantly influencing trade flows and the demand for shipping services.Over the past decade,the average distance travelled by seaborne trade increased for oil and dry bulk commodities but fell in the case of containerized trade(UNCTAD,2022a).The average distance travelled by one ton of grain was 5,574

299、 nautical miles in 2002 and increased to 7,251 in 2022.For oil commodities(including crude oil and refined oil products)this measure was 3,993 nautical miles in 2002,increasing to 4,350 in 2022.The average distance travelled by one ton of dry bulk commodities(excluding grains)was Figure 1.1 Internat

300、ional maritime trade,20032024(Million tons loaded)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network time series(July 2023).Notes:2023 and 2024 are forecast.“Dry bulk”includes major bulks(iron ore,coal and grain)and minor bulks(metals,minerals,agribulks and softs);“O

301、il”encompasses crude oil and refined oil products;“Other dry”is an estimation of all other dry trade that is not included in major/minor bulks,for instance,cars and other vehicles,roro and project cargoes,as well as reefer cargoes that dont go in containers and breakbulk cargoes that are not in the

302、minor bulk category;“gas”includes LPG,LNG and ammonia.01 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 20032004200520062007200820092000002220232024Dry bulkOilContainersOther dryGasChemicals6REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023Figure 1.2 Seaborne trade growth,tons and ton

303、-miles,20002024(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network time series(July 2023).Note:2023 and 2024 are forecast.-6-4-202468002200320052006200720082009200002120222023TonsTon-miles20244,978

304、nautical miles in 2002 and increased to 5,231 in 2022.These cargo types are expected to reach long-time records in 2023,namely 7,338 nautical miles for grain,5,253 nautical miles for other dry bulk commodities,and 4,578 nautical miles for oil cargo(figure 1.3).Growth in distances travelled of oil ca

305、rgo reflects structural shifts in the energy production and distribution sectors and imbalances in supply and demand.The shale revolution in the United States,coupled with the lifting of the crude oil export ban in 2015,led to an increase in oil cargo shipments from the United States to Asia.At the

306、same time,the growing refining capacity in Asia has increased demand for crude oil shipments from the Atlantic basin.Meanwhile,demand for refined oil products in Asia,especially China,and exports of refined oil products from Asia have also changed the direction of flows and distances travelled.As fo

307、r dry bulk shipments,large consumption in China of iron ore,coal and grains and minor bulks used in steel production have been a major driver in dry bulk trade shipments and distances travelled with many of these commodities being sourced from the Argentina,Brazil and United States.Since 2022,a gap

308、is observed between ton and ton-mile growth in the case of oil and oil products,and coal(figure 1.4 and figure 1.5).Growth in ton-miles seems to have been heightened by the war in Ukraine in the case of these three products.In 2023,refined oil products,liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)and crude oil trade

309、 are expected to witness the largest increases in ton-miles that exceed growth in trade volumes(Clarksons,2023e).Figure 1.3 Distance travelled per ton of maritime cargo,19992024(Nautical miles)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network time-series(July 2023).

310、Notes:2023 and 2024 are forecast.“Oil”includes crude oil and refined oil products.Dry bulk(excluding grain)OilContainerGrain3 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 500042005200620072008200920000022202320241.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TR

311、ADE7If sustained and inclusive,this development could lead to trade diversification opportunities and shifts in the geography of trade that may enable new players to emerge as importers and exporters.However,for the end user or the consumer,alternative cargo sourced from further away may entail grea

312、ter shipping costs and result in higher import prices.For shipping companies,increasing ton-miles implies a larger demand for shipping capacity that may require investment in more ships and support better fleet utilization and earnings.However,this gap is expected to reduce in 2023 and 2024.In the c

313、ase of oil and oil products specifically,starting in 2024,growth in tons is expected to increase while growth in ton-miles is expected to slow down.This reflects lower growth in distances travelled(5.3 per cent in 2024)compared with 2023(about 7.8 per cent)(Clarksons,2023e).This suggests that growth

314、 in ton-miles exceeding volumes induced by the war in Ukraine was a cyclical change in the usual patterns,as opposed to a structural shift.4.Modest recovery in containerized trade in 2023 In 2022,global containerized trade volumes declined marginally by-0.7 per cent,reaching 163 million 20-foot equi

315、valent units(TEUs),down from 164 million TEUs in 2021 and in sharp contrast to the surge in volumes recorded in 2021(8.1 per cent),as illustrated in figure 1.6.UNCTAD forecasts that containerized Figure 1.5 Coal seaborne trade growth,tons and ton-miles,20032024(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD

316、 secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network time series(July 2023).Note:2023 and 2024 are forecast.-15-10-505004200520062007200820092000002220232024TonsTon-milesFigure 1.4 Crude oil and refined oil products seaborne tr

317、ade growth,tons and ton-miles,20032024(Annual percentage change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on Clarksons Research,Shipping Intelligence Network time series(July 2023).Notes:2023 and 2024 are forecast.-10-8-6-4-2024680052006200720082009200000

318、2220232024TonsTon-miles8REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2023seaborne trade will grow by 1.2 per cent in 2023 and will grow modestly,as macroeconomic challenges ease,with around 3 per cent per year for containerized trade starting in 2024(see table 1.1 and annex).Global containerized trade has been on a

319、 roller coaster ride since the COVID-19 pandemic.While the market boomed in 2021 and during much of the first half of 2022,the situation changed dramatically by the second half of the year and returned to normal pre-COVID-19 levels.Significant differences were observed across regions in terms of ann

320、ual changes in containerized trade(box 1.2).Figure 1.6 Global containerized trade,19962023(Million 20-foot equivalent units and percentage annual change)Source:UNCTAD secretariat,based on data from MDS Transmodal(MDST),World Cargo Database,1 June 2023.-10-505101520 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1801

321、996920002000420052006200720082009200000222023Million TEU(left axis)Percentage annual growthBox 1.2 Seaborne containerized trade performs differently across sub-regionsSince 2020,containerized trade has faced an unprecedented rise in s

322、hipping rates,difficulties of trade logistic systems to adapt effectively to supply and demand abrupt changes,less frequent port calls,port congestion and labour-related issues.As a result,disruptions in maritime supply chains have been widespread at a global level,prompting a substantial drop in se

323、aborne containerized cargo volumes.However,impacts differed across regions,as shown in the table below.Effects were more marked in Latin America than in other regions,with a reduction of almost six percentage points in container volumes in 2020 compared to the previous year.By the end of 2022,althou

324、gh the gap had narrowed,the total ended below the levels of 2019.Annual changes in containerized international seaborne trade(Sum of exports and imports)by sub-region,2019=100Source:Barleta and Saade(2023),based on Container Trade Statistics(CTS),20192022.20022Sub-Saharan Africa10096.498.

325、298.1North America100100.5109.4101.6Latin America10094.3101.996.5Australasia and Oceania100100.6101.997.4Europe10097.0101.994.5Asia10099.9106.3104.0Indian Subcontinent and Middle East10096.998.0101.6Global10098.7104.5100.91.INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRADE9Box 1.2 Seaborne containerized trade performs d

326、ifferently across sub-regions(cont.)Performances diverged among and within regions and across the type of trades.Some of the main ports in the region such as Panama,show that the Caribbean coast of Panama recovered more quickly and showed better results in exports(+15 per cent exports vs.-15 per cen

327、t imports)in 2022 compared with 2019 whereas the Panamanian Pacific coast experienced a 14 per cent increase in imports against a-11 per cent decline in exports.As the world appears to be returning to previous levels and normalizing after the volatility of recent years,many questions remain about th

328、e future of seaborne trade in the Latin American and Caribbean region.A more resilient future will require mechanisms that consider global variations,route changes,industry concentration and regional inequalities.It will also require addressing the historic and substantial infrastructure gap related

329、 to connectivity between ports and the regions economic hinterland.This infrastructure gap poses a significant obstacle to development in countries from this region,making it a crucial aspect to address in building resilience.The considerable investment needed at a time when countries and Government

330、s are under severe economic pressure and lack resources constitutes a major hurdle.Tighter and more efficient resource planning is needed,together with more creative financing mechanisms.Extensive planning,financing and regulatory efforts are required to ensure an integrated Latin American and Carib

331、bean region that can navigate future disruptions and leverage seaborne trade opportunities more effectively.Source:UN-ECLAC,based on Eliana Barleta y Miryam Saade Hazin:“Challenges for the maritime sector:after the storm,comes the calm?”Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,Santiag

332、o,2023;and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean:“International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2022”,LC/PUB.2022/23-P,Santiago,2023.By the third quarter of 2022,normalization in market conditions started to show,reflecting the fading away of the boost generated b

333、y various COVID-19-related drivers.Demand moderated and volumes weakened,reflecting the end of the stimulus spending effect,especially in the United States;the impact of inflation,including on global consumer demand;more destocking and inventory draws,as well as a recovery of services trade.By late 2022,containerized trade had tempered the bullish market conditions seen in 2021 and early 2022,when