1、Commissioned byGlobal Maritime Trends 2050Contents3 About the research5 Foreword by Lloyds Register7 Foreword by Lloyds Register Foundation9 Introduction11 Global trends overview Geopolitical and macroeconomic trends Environment trends Natural resource trends Technological trends Social trends26 Fou

2、r futures for the maritime sector in 2050 Just,gradual transition Rapid,tech-driven transition Regionalised and fragmented transition Delayed transition35 What if scenarios What if nations embrace widespread adoption of green hydrogen by 2050?What if automated technology solutions became widely adop

3、ted in the maritime industry by 2050?What if regionalisation and population expansion lead to deglobalisation and fragmented global maritime trade by 2050?What if average global sea levels rise by at least 40 cm by 2050?48 Conclusion49 Appendix:detailed literature review methodology51 ReferencesGlob

4、al Maritime Trends 20502 The Economist Group 2023About the researchGlobal Maritime Trends 2050 is a report by Economist Impact,commissioned by Lloyds Register Foundation and Lloyds Register.Economist Impacts research is based on a pragmatic literature review(see Appendix for a detailed methodology)a

5、nd 16 in-depth,qualitative interviews with maritime policy and industry professionals.Findings from the literature review were used to inform the global trends overview and formed the basis of our four futures.We then conducted 16 interviews with experts to better understand the implications of thes

6、e futures,and what these mean for our four“what if”scenarios(more details on these are available in the introduction).The full list of interviewees,in alphabetical order,are:Andrew Stephens,executive director,Sustainable Shipping Initiative Basil Germond,chair in international security,Lancaster Uni

7、versity Ben Abraham,CEO,Global Marine,Willis Tower Watson Domenic Di Francesco,Turing research fellow,Alan Turing Institute and data-centric engineer,AQ Elizabeth Petit Gonzlez,head of communications and partnerships,Sustainable Shipping Initiative Hing Chao,executive chairman,Wah Kwong Maritime Tra

8、nsport Holdings Hyun-ho Lee,executive vice president,HD Hyundai Heavy Industries;managing director,Maritime Research Institute JB-Rae Smith,vice president,UK Chamber of Shipping;director,Private Group Companies,John Swire&Sons Jesper Kristensen,group chief operating ofcer,marine services,DP World Jo

9、hannah Christensen,managing director,Global Maritime Forum Katie Higginbottom,head,ITF Seafarers Trust Kevin Forshaw,director of industrial and strategic partnerships,University of Plymouth Mark Bryan,senior foresight manager,Future Today Institute Nick Bartlett,director and lead for financial servi

10、ces,insurance,transportation and manufacturing,Future Today Institute Peter Thomson,UN secretary-generals special envoy for the ocean,UN Stavros Karamperides,head,Maritime Transport Research Group,University of Plymouth Stephen Cotton,general secretary,International Transport Workers FederationOur t

11、hanks and gratitude go to these individuals for their time and insights.1Global Maritime Trends 20503 The Economist Group 2023The report was produced by a team of Economist Impact researchers,writers,editors and graphic designers,including:Melanie Noronha:project director Martina Chow:project manage

12、r Aayushi Idda Sharma:lead analyst Martin Koehring:project adviser Other Economist Impact and Economist Intelligence Unit colleagues also contributed to the research by engaging in an internal expert consultation.These include:Ana Nicholls,Pratima Singh,Matus Samel,Phillip Cornell,Swarup Gupta and C

13、ailin Birch.The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 20504Foreword by Lloyds RegisterOver the past decade,the maritime industry has made significant strides in its decarbonisation journey.The introduction of EEDI in 2013 and subsequently EEXI and CII in 2022 have significantly increased the ef

14、ficiency of both newly delivered and existing ships since 2013.The recently revised IMO greenhouse gas strategy has now set revised targets to further increase efficiency and move the industry to net zero emissions,by or close to 2050.However,more can still be achieved through market-based measures,

15、continued government support and international alignment to ensure a commercially viable and global level playing field for the industry and future fuel producers,enabling them to make immediate and medium-term investment plans.Lets also not forget that over the past few years we have had a global p

16、andemic and seen war break out in Europe.These have led to spikes in transport needs,periods of high inflation and an uncertain geopolitical landscape.So,as we continue the journey towards a more sustainable future,it is not a question of when,but rather how we will achieve the required transition.T

17、hat is why the future landscapes and thought-provoking What If scenarios created and explored in this Global Maritime Trends 2050 report are so vital.They help lay the foundation to measure the success and speed of the transition,as well as its impact on the entire maritime ecosystem,including,most

18、importantly,the skills and education of its people.Plenty of research has been carried out into what an energy system could look like in the years to come,but this work purposely looks at the wider implications on trade,vessels,energy,ports and people,providing maritime stakeholders with the insight

19、s to enable decision-making.In envisioning this path ahead and the rapid changes we have experienced over the past few years,digitalisation is also inseparable from decarbonisation in the maritime industry.Global Maritime Trends 20505 The Economist Group 2023By leveraging digital technologies and tr

20、ansformation,we can optimise vessel speeds,reduce fuel consumption,and enhance connectivity between land-based and maritime logistics.This integration holds the potential to not only make our global supply chains more efficient,but also significantly reduce emissions.By delving into the potential fu

21、ture landscapes in this report,we can see the advantages of a collaborative,tech-driven,leaner and more visible industry.However,it also worryingly highlights the dangers of a lack of global co-operation and a slow and fragmented technology uptake.Shipping,often invisible to the public,needs greater

22、 recognition for its vital role in delivering 90%of our goods to eight billion people.However,the wellbeing of the two million seafarers who labour diligently to maintain our global supply chains cannot be overstated.They are the lifeline of our industry,and their efforts are indispensable.We must p

23、rioritise their needs in the march to 2050,offering fair wages,appropriate work and rest hours,and ensuring their health and safety.Moreover,we must attract,educate and nurture new and diverse talent,empowering them with the knowledge and skills required to navigate the challenges and opportunities

24、of the future.As we stand at the precipice of transformation,this report and the framework of the four maritime future landscapes serve as a compassguiding us through these uncharted waters.It offers insights into the complexities of our changing world,from geopolitical shifts to emerging economies,

25、and highlights the challenges and solutions that will shape the maritime industry.We hope this report proves to be a valuable resource,enlightening and inspiring readers as they grapple with the realities and possibilities of the future.Nick Brown Chief Executive Officer,Lloyds RegisterGlobal Mariti

26、me Trends 20506 The Economist Group 2023Foreword by Lloyds Register FoundationThe future is full of uncertainty.The world faces some incredibly tough challenges both now and in the decades to come,which are putting human lives and the health of the planet at risk.These same challenges come with oppo

27、rtunities for change.As a starting point,this report explores what the future may look like,allowing us collectively to prepare for what lies ahead.Global Maritime Trends 2050 shines a light on many of these challenges,including anticipated global population growth from seven to nine billion people,

28、with the biggest increases expected in Africa and Asia.While many countries will have an ageing demographic with potential labour shortages in the future,others will have much younger populations who need safe jobs and the chance to earn a decent living.Providing opportunities for these young people

29、 to gain education and skills should be a priority for all industries in the coming years.As well as labour challenges,these shifts in our global society will put increasing demand on urban development.We need reliable and resilient infrastructure in the right places that is fit for purpose now and

30、in an ever-changing climate,both on land and at sea.People need water,food,accommodation,communication and transport networks in order to stay safeand these are often the very things at risk in a disruptive event.The pandemic showed us that supply chains can easily be interrupted if resilience is no

31、t built in at the outset,putting human lives in danger.Large-scale infrastructure must be resilient,future-proof and based on safe engineering practices.The future maritime system must keep goods moving in a safe and more sustainable way to meet societys needs while reducing the impact on the planet

32、.This means an energy transition to alternative fuels,changes to port infrastructure around the world to accommodate vessels of different sizes and fuel types,and new shipping routes.Global Maritime Trends 20507 The Economist Group 2023Rising sea levels and urban development,both on land and as coun

33、tries build out into the ocean,affect coastal communities.With 40%of the population living near the coast,how do we ensure that people are kept safe and have access to new employment opportunities while these changes occur?This report gives a picture of what this transition could look like and highl

34、ights what is needed right now for the transition to be effective,reliable and safe.New technologies can help reduce the fragility of our existing maritime ecosystem,which is not just about shipping but includes industries that operate at sea or rely on the ocean,such as offshore energy,underwater c

35、abling,aquaculture and blue food.These industries all rely on vessels that need operating,fuelling and maintenance.However,these technologies,which may develop quickly,must be safe and based on standards that protect workers and communities,and be accessible to all to avoid driving further inequalit

36、ies.The overarching message in the report is that shipping,as the heartbeat of global trade,has an incredible opportunity to be at the forefront of change.As we move towards a decarbonised world,shipping could be a shining example to other industries,with a genuine commitment to a fair and equitable

37、 transition for the benefit of all.Ruth Boumphrey Chief Executive,Lloyds Register FoundationGlobal Maritime Trends 20508 The Economist Group 2023IntroductionFor the maritime sector,as with every other sector globally,the triple planetary crisischaracterised by climate change,nature and biodiversity

38、loss,and pollution2will be the defining challenge that shapes the decades ahead.Global shipping accounts for 3%of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,and the sector is far from achieving the necessary emission cuts needed to hit the Paris Agreement by 2050.3 Yet this sector,more so than others,is de

39、eply intertwined with the nature of global geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.Ships deliver 80%of the worlds trade,4 so any disruptions,as demonstrated by the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021,5 are felt acutely across the globe.Amid global supply chain uncertainties,the urgent need to decar

40、bonise,the integration of new technologies,concerns about human rights and safety at sea,and the future of labour supplies,what does the future of the maritime sector look like?The aim of this study was to explore potential futures for the maritime sector in 2050,understand how these would manifest

41、in hypothetical and specific scenarios,and how this would impact key components of the maritime sector(see Figure 1).In order to do this,Economist Impact conducted an extensive literature review based on grey literaturefor example from the International Energy Agency(IEA),the UN Conference on Trade

42、and Development(UNCTAD)and Figure 1:Key components of the maritime economySource:Economist ImpactMaritime tradeCommercial shipping,energy transport,fishingVesselsDesign,fuels,technologiesEnergyGreen energy supply,ofshore energyPortsPort infrastructure and logisticsPeopleSkills,training programmesMar

43、itimeeconomyGlobal Maritime Trends 20509 The Economist Group 2023 The Economist Group 2023the International Monetary Fund(IMF)as well as academic journals.The literature review identified a long list of trends that are expected to characterise the world through to 2050 across five key areas:geopolit

44、ics and macroeconomics;the environment;natural resources;technology;and social.In assessing these global trends for 2050,the literature review also aimed to explore how these might manifest in the near term(2030)and medium term(2040).The findings of the literature review were then discussed,scrutini

45、sed and validated by a team of internal sectoral and methodological experts at Economist Impact and The Economist Intelligence Unit.The first section of this report outlines these trends in more detail.The trends identified by the literature review formed the basis of the four maritime futures,discu

46、ssed in the second section of this report.These are as follows:1.Just,gradual transition:high global co-operation combined with a gradual uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.2.Rapid,tech-driven transition:high global co-operation combined with a rapid uptake of novel and/or advanced technolog

47、y.3.Regionalised and fragmented transition:high global fragmentation combined with a rapid uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.4.Delayed transition:high global fragmentation combined with a slow uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.Finally,Economist Impact identified four specific“what

48、if”scenarios to bring each of these futures to life through qualitative,fictional storytelling,which are discussed in the reports penultimate section.As such,the four scenarios are not predictions for 2050 based on quantitative modelling or forecasting.Though fictional,the insights from these scenar

49、ios are grounded in the findings of our literature review,extensive desk research and the 16 expert interviews(see About the research for more detail on these).The aim of these scenarios was to understand the trends that would afect the maritime sector more broadly,as well as the specific implicatio

50、ns for people,ports,trade,vessels and fuels.These ofer a window into a future that may manifest for the sector and the eforts needed today by industry stakeholders to prepare.The four scenarios we explore are as follows:1.What if nations embrace widespread adoption of green hydrogen by 2050?2.What i

51、f automated technology solutions became widely adopted in the maritime industry by 2050?3.What if regionalisation and population expansion lead to deglobalisation and fragmented global maritime trade by 2050?4.What if average global sea levels rise by at least 40 cm by 2050?Global shipping accounts

52、for 3%of global greenhouse gas emissionsShips deliver 80%of the worlds tradeGlobal Maritime Trends 205010Global trends overviewMost of the trends that will shape the global economy in 2050 are extensions of the current status quo,albeit some new influences are emerging.This chapter presents a select

53、ion of the trends that are most likely to materialise and transform how sectors and economies function(see Figure 2).The trends have been categorised under five key areasgeopolitical and macroeconomic,social,environmental,natural resources,and technology.The following descriptions also focus on how

54、some of them are expected to evolve in the near term(2030)and medium term(2040).Figure 2:Guiding principles for trends selection Source:Economist ImpactImportanceIs it a response to systemic global challenge e.g.shortage of resources,climate change etc?NoveltyIs this trend relatively new or fast-evo

55、lving,or is this persistent and long term?ApplicabilityDoes this trend afect a range of diferent geographies or sectors?TransformativeIs this trend likely to significantly change the way sectors/economies operate?1243Global Maritime Trends 205011 The Economist Group 2023Geopolitical and macroeconomi

56、c trends1.Growing populations across Asia and AfricaMore than half of the projected increases in global population numbers up to 2050 will be concentrated in Asia and Africa across eight countries,according to the UN.These include the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,India,Nigeria,Pak

57、istan,the Philippines and Tanzania.6 The population in Europe will continue to get older,and the region is projected to face the highest dependency ratio7 by 2050,at 75%.By contrast,Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to have the lowest dependency ratio,at 56%,in 2050.Africa will h

58、ave the youngest median age,at 25 by 2050,8 by which time it is set to account for 25%of the worlds population.9 A number of macro-and micro-economic dynamics will be afected by population growth,including international migration,economic inequality and a countrys workforce,but any resulting economi

59、c growth depends on age structure.10 As such,in the context of growing populations,African and Asian economies can develop in myriad ways:larger working age populations can speed up innovation and growth,but they can also add to existing challenges relating to poverty alleviation,conflict and inequa

60、lity.11 Regardless,changing demographic trends will have an important impact on the maritime sector.According to International Transport Forum research,consumption patterns in regions with ageing populations will shift towards services and away from goods.And,in tandem,the process of globalisation b

61、ased on labour-cost diferentials and outsourcing production,which has driven maritime trade until now,will reach its limits,leading to a decline in cargo volumes.12 In regions with growing populations,the consumption of manufactured goods will grow.By 2030 McKinsey estimates that the developing worl

62、d(excluding China)may account for 35%of global consumption,led by countries such as India,Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysia and the Philippines.13 Moreover,household consumption in Africa is expected to reach US$2.5trn in 2030,up from US$1.1trn in 2015.Nearly half of that will be spent in three countries:

63、Nigeria(20%),Egypt(17%)and South Africa(11%).14In this context,countries will need to invest in increasing the efciency and resilience of their ports and logistics infrastructure to keep up with growing demand for imports and consumption.Population changes may also afect production dynamics and see

64、the rise of domestic supply chains across industries.15 Maritime trade routes and logistics will need to account for these changes.More than half of the projected increases in global population numbers up to 2050 will be concentrated in Asia and Africa.Global Maritime Trends 205012 The Economist Gro

65、up 20232.Deglobalisation and fragmentation become more entrenchedAs trends emerging today become more entrenched,2050 will be characterised by deglobalisation and fragmentation,which place greater emphasis on regional links,near-and friend-shoring,economic blocs for regional free trade,and protectio

66、nist policies to protect some sensitive and/or strategically important sectors.16 Supply chains,trade and strategic alliances have also long been shaped by oil industry interests.Increasing renewable energy adoption and more decentralised energy systems(see below)will result in trade disruptions(as

67、countries reduce their reliance on oil imports),and in the long term,more regionalised alliances.17,18 Trade routes will shift in response to this transition,and networks will be regionalised as increasingly wealthy developing countries use their improved economic position to respond to ongoing frus

68、trations with the World Trade Organizations dispute settlement process.19 3.The dominance of Asian economies The coming decades will see the dominance of Asian economies,driven by shifting population dynamics,new resource demands and technological innovations.20,21,22 The Economist Intelligence Unit

69、 expects China to overtake the US to become the largest global economy by 2050,with a nominal GDP of more than US$80trn,compared with around US$17trn in 2022.23 The same estimates suggest that,in 2050,Asian countries,namely India,Indonesia,South Korea and Japan,will make up half of the worlds top te

70、n economies.In 2022 they accounted for three of the ten.This trend will be accompanied by de-dollarisation;while the dollar is expected to remain strong,its gap with other currencies is set to narrow.24 A possible new BRICS25 currency will only strengthen the dominance of these emerging economies fu

71、rther.26 Currently,the dollar is used in 84.3%of cross-border trade,compared with just 4.5%for the Chinese yuan.A BRICS currency has the potential to destabilise this dollar dominant regime,meaning that these countries could fund their entire import bills by themselves.In 2022,as a whole,the BRICS c

72、ountries ran a trade surplus of US$387bn,mostly thanks to China.Moreover,their economic influence is only set to rise in the coming yearsand,as such,countries around the world are likely to be more willing to do business in the BRICS currency.27 As the economic and political influence of Asian econo

73、mies increases,maritime trade in the region will continue to expand.Already,as of 2021,Asian economies accounted for 43%of maritime exports and 64%of imports,and four of the top five countries supplying seafarers were in Asia,with the Philippines holding the top spot.28,29 Estimates suggest that,in

74、2050,Asian countries,namely China,India,Indonesia,South Korea and Japan,will make up half of the worlds top ten economies.Global Maritime Trends 205013 The Economist Group 20234.The regionalisation and/or localisation of conflictsRemaining conflicts are likely to be concentrated within regions as gl

75、obal wars become more costly.According to a 2012 statistical model developed by the University of Oslo,30 the proportion of countries facing internal armed conflicts will decline from around 15%in 2009 to an estimated 7%in 2050.The model expects that the few remaining conflicts will be concentrated

76、in East,Central and Southern Africa and in East and South Asia.31 As we are seeing with the war in Ukraine,regional and/or global wars will have consequences for the maritime sector,in particular trade and logistics.The need to source commodities from diferent parts of the world puts new pressures o

77、n marine transport infrastructure and services;fuel prices increase,thereby raising shipping costs,and in some instances regular trade routes are disrupted.32 That said,Russias invasion of Ukraine and enduring tensions between the US and Chinato name a couple of examplesmay escalate into a global wa

78、r.These wars will be global,as in likely involving a number of actors(including NATO members).However,they are unlikely to be global in theatre,as global conflicts are fought through new and/or diferent means(see below).5.Security-first spending,strategies and policies Persistent geopolitical tensio

79、ns and new technologies will heighten the importance of energy security,defence and maritime security,health and food security,and cybersecurity.The renewed focus on energy security,particularly in light of conflicts such as the Ukraine war,is accelerating the global energy transition(see below).33

80、Energy trade will continue to be a central issue,particularly in the transition period,as countries look to decarbonise while guaranteeing more traditional energy supplies.34,35,36 More localised or decentralised renewable energy systems could also stabilise geopolitics and security more broadly,as

81、energy sources would be less concentrated.37 For the maritime industry,it could mean bringing a greater focus to securing new energy sources,such as ofshore wind,tidal and wave,among others,as well as new food sources,like aquaculture(see below).Beyond this,maritime defence spending has been increas

82、ing as maritime trade routes become more strategic and contested,and critical sea-based infrastructure expands and becomes more vulnerable(to cyber attacks in particular).38,39 Finally,with the rapid integration of advanced technology that is set to characterise the years ahead(see below),cybersecur

83、ity will become an increasingly important concern.Hackers have the potential to take control of critical infrastructure and sensitive consumer and government data.40,41 These concerns spill into the maritime sector,jeopardising the safety of the crew,vessel,cargo and even ports,causing delays in voy

84、age,or the loss or manipulation of external sensor data.42 Global Maritime Trends 205014 The Economist Group 2023Environmental trends1.Mainstream use of climate technology,including carbon removal solutionsClimate technologies,including carbon removal solutions,will become a mainstream and necessary

85、 component in net zero scenarios for 2050.43 Even if all mitigation targets are met,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)expects that carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS)and other carbon removal technologies will still be required.44 By 2030 the IEAs net-zero scenario will requ

86、ire 1,286 MTCO2 to be captured yearly.45 Current development trajectories are not set to meet these requirements,but momentum is growing.46 By 2050,then,it is likely that CCUS technologies will become mainstream.The maritime sector will increasingly see the use of nature-based solutions including bl

87、ue carbon sources such as mangroves,tidal marshes and seagrass meadowsall of which have the capacity to capture and store CO2 from the atmosphere at a rate of two to four times faster than terrestrial ecosystems.47 2.A chronic shortfall in environmental financing Debates on environmental finance(gre

88、en and climate finance)will continue to take place through 2050,as it is unlikely that discussions on the volume,direction and pace of finance will be resolved in the short to medium term.Estimates suggest that developed economies must invest at least US$1trn in energy infrastructure by 2030 and US$

89、3trn to US$6trn annually across all sectors by 2050 to reduce GHG emissions and mitigate climate change.48 As countries deal with the efects of climate change directly(see below),adaptation finance in particular should increase in response.Negotiations between international governments and businesse

90、s around the world on how best to accelerate this are likely to persist.For the maritime sector,this will mean more attention on decarbonising shipping and possibly more taxes on industry players to fund climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.The Poseidon Principles,launched in 2019 and devel

91、oped by global banks and shipping industry players,is one example of this.The principles provide a framework to integrate climate considerations into lending decisions for the maritime industry.49 Developed economies must invest US$3trn to US$6trn annually across all sectors by 2050 to reduce GHG em

92、issions.The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 2050153.Standardised environmental reporting and disclosure normsEnvironmental reporting will become standardised.It will become a requirement for businesses and governments to monitor,collect,assess and disclose regular,comparable data on a num

93、ber of environmental challenges across sectors.Over the past few years,numerous environmental standards have emerged.Eforts are ongoing to harmonise these and agree on a set of globally accepted standards that governments and businesses can adhere to.The creation of the International Sustainability

94、Standards Board is a huge step towards this.50 The coming years will solidify these trends towards regulation and standardisation.4.Adapting to the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss Societies will ramp up eforts to adapt to and manage the real impacts of climate change and biodiversity

95、 loss through increased investments,the development of new technologies,and migration of people and economic activities.Even if the limit of 1.5 degrees of warming is adhered to and 30%of degraded ecosystems are restored by 2030,communities will face the tangible impacts of climate change through ri

96、sing sea levels,more frequent natural disasters,extreme weather and biodiversity loss(which can afect human health).51 In particular,the IPCC estimates that sea levels are expected to rise by 0.29m to 0.51m by 2100 in a business-as-usual scenario.52 Globally,an estimated 800 million people,living in

97、 570 coastal cities,are already vulnerable to a sea-level rise of 0.5 metres by 2050.53 In response,governments and businesses will need to invest in a combination of physical infrastructure and nature-based solutions that enable them to adapt.54 The risks to port infrastructure are especially high

98、in this context,and key ports such as those in Shanghai and Rotterdam are already under pressure.The impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss will result in a new wave of climate migrants fleeing increasingly uninhabitable areas:the World Bank estimates that 216 million people across six worl

99、d regions will have to move within their countries by 2050.55 This will have implications for social and political cohesion(see below).World Bank estimates that 216 million people across six world regions will have to move within their countries by 2050 due to climate change.Global Maritime Trends 2

100、05016 The Economist Group 2023Natural resource trends1.The widespread deployment of food technology and the primacy of alternative proteinsFood technology will come in diferent forms,and will be deployed as more resource-efcient solutions are required to meet demand for nutritious and sustainable fo

101、od.56,57 According to the USDA,the number of food-insecure people in 2022 was estimated at 1.3 billion,an increase of 118.7 million people,or 10%,from 2021.58 Animal proteins currently account for 40%of the worlds protein intake,59,60 and demand for aquatic foods in particular is set to rise from 20

102、.5kg per head in 2019 to 21.4kg per head in 2030.61 Current agricultural systems account for 30%of global emissions,62 and take up 70%of the worlds arable land.63,64 At sea,around 85%of global fish stocks are already over-exploited,depleted,fully exploited or in recovery from exploitation.65 Food te

103、chnologies such as precision fermentation,cultured meat,lab-grown seafood and vertical farms can be deployed across regions,but particularly in land-scarce areas,to make food production more efcient and sustainable.66,67 Aquaculture will also need to expand and increase efciently and sustainably in

104、order to meet demands.This will entail the use of software,artificial intelligence(AI),satellite technologies and other technologies to improve resource efciency and protect fish health,as well as investments in innovative feeds(such as insects)to reduce reliance on soya and wild fish.68,692.Dominan

105、ce of renewable energy Renewable energy will become the dominant source of energy as pressures to decarbonise mount,investments continue to increase and technologies advance.Globally,renewable energy sources are on track to account for over 90%of global electricity capacity expansion between 2022 an

106、d 2027,70 surpassing coal to become the largest source of electricity generation by 2025.71 In particular,between now and 2050 the IEA expects wind and solar capacity to grow four to five times faster than any other source of energy.72 Ofshore wind is now one of the fastest growing energy technologi

107、es,and floating wind power could soon follow suit.Last year saw 50 floating ofshore wind turbines commissioned,and global stock is set to exceed 5 GW by 2030 and 25 GW by 2035.73 Beyond this,the coming decades will see the growth of other sources of ocean-based renewable energy,such as wave and tida

108、l,both of which are in relatively mature phases of development.74,75 Maritime trade routes in international trade will change as the practicalities of exporting energy and the more widespread availability of renewable energy may encourage more regionalised energy trade routes.76 Between now and 2050

109、 the IEA expects wind and solar capacity to grow four to five times faster than any other source of energy.The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 205017Source:IEA World Energy Outlook 202277Renewables generation in terawatt-hours.The Stated Policies Scenario shows the trajectory implied by t

110、odays policy settings.The Announced Pledges Scenario assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full,including their long-term net zero and energy access goals.Figure 3:Renewable energy projections by country/region.Top producers expected to be China,follow

111、ed by EU,US,India,Brazil(TWh)HistoricalStated policiesAnnounced pledges20030205020302050World 4,234 7,539 8,060 15,073 32,452 7,575 8,873 North America 860 1,334 1,385 2,668 5,858 3,361 7,895 US 445 833 874 2,034 4,849 2,620 6,573 Central and South America 743 888 910 1,287 2,287 1,501 3,

112、365 Brazil 437 525 509 700 1,099 761 1,329 Europe 963 1,596 1,631 2,836 4,249 3,491 6,422 European Union 660 1,069 1,112 1,971 2,854 2,470 4,318 Africa 115 184 197 440 1,429 665 3,234 Middle East 18 35 48 166 966 234 2,227 Eurasia 229 279 285 340 545 384 786 Russia 170 219 222 249 399 252 416 Asia P

113、acific 1,306 3,223 3,604 7,334 17,117 7,938 4,944 China 791 2,192 2,466 4,901 9,658 5,056 12,704 India 162 325 337 956 3,866 990 5,745 Japan 115 216 232 356 586 391 768 Southeast Asia 105 266 296 506 1,463 668 2,802 Global Maritime Trends 205018 The Economist Group 20233.The use of novel and/or unco

114、nventional fuel sources gains momentumOutside of renewables,growing demand for cleaner and more sustainable energy sources will lead to the discovery and use of novel forms of energy such as hydrogen,methanol,biomass,nuclear fusion or waste.In the coming decades,the adoption of these unconventional

115、sources is set to increase as decarbonisation eforts become a priority.78 International shipping enables 80-90%of global trade but also comprises about 70%of global shipping energy emissions,while national or domestic shipping accounts for the remaining 30%.Methanol-and ammonia-derived fuels are alr

116、eady promising in their ability to cut emissions,and,as a result,large shipping companies are investing in these resources.79,80 The further use of alternative fuel sources could substantially reduce emissions.Green ammonia and methanol are already in the development phase,with around 80 pilot techn

117、ology projects currently underway.81 Maersk,a shipping and logistics company,has plans to develop Europes first green ammonia facility by 2026.82 They expect the first large methanol-powered ships to be ready by 2024,and small ammonia vessels by 2026.83 The widespread use of hydrogen fuel and hydrog

118、en carriers could follow on from these early contenders,although this may still be decades away.Currently,biofuels are a viable short-term option for the industry,and the direct use of green hydrogen is possible for short sailings,though not yet at scale.Although the technology is not yet ready for

119、widespread commercialisation,some countries are already laying the foundations for hydrogen as a potential transport fuel.84 4.The battle for critical minerals and resources Growing demand for renewable energy(see above)and new sensor-or chip-based technologies(see below)will increase the economic a

120、nd geopolitical influence of countries that house minerals,rare earths and large sources of renewable energy.85 The growth of renewable energy will also see critical mineralssuch as lithium,nickel,cobalt,manganese and graphitebecome the basis of economic growth,geopolitical competition and strategic

121、 trade alliances.For instance,to achieve its net zero targets,Europe will require up to 26 times the amount of rare earth metals in 2050 compared with today.86 As such,by 2040 the IEA expects revenue from energy transition minerals to surpass coal by almost US$100bn.87 The production of these minera

122、ls,however,will be geographically concentrated:in 2019 the Democratic Republic of the Congo and China alone were responsible for 70%and 60%of global cobalt and rare earth mineral production,respectively.88 Similarly,for electric vehicles(EVs)and their supporting infrastructure(see below),exporters o

123、f batteries and critical minerals will experience growing economic activity and influence.That being said,other environmental alternatives may also provide viable and competitive solutions to clean energy requirements,for instance,silicon-based batteries for EVs.89,90 Global Maritime Trends 205019 T

124、he Economist Group 2023Source:USGS91 Figure 4:Rare earth minerals mine production by country,2022(Tons)Additionally,deep sea mining is likely to gain prominence as an important source of critical minerals.This will generate new opportunities for the maritime economy,but the associated environmental

125、concerns will need to be properly accounted for.Mining the deep sea can cause the extinction of species that live on the ocean floor,destroy deepwater ecosystems,disturb water columns,and generate sediment plumes and toxins that could impact marine life far beyond the mine site.92 A WWF study highli

126、ghts that demand for critical minerals can be reduced substantiallybetween 20%and 58%from now to 2050with new technology,circular economy models and recycling.Particularly,it highlights that,in 2050,all new mineral demand can likely be met through a circular economy.93 AustraliaBurmaChinaIndiaMadaga

127、scarRussiaThailandUnited StatesVietnam180,00012,000210,0002,9009602,6007,10043,0004,300050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Global Maritime Trends 205020 The Economist Group 2023Technological trends1.Enhanced efciencies with the mainstream use of AIAI adoption is gaining momentum across sectors and is

128、 set to become a mainstream technology in the coming decades.There are multiple applications,ranging from improved healthcare,safer and more efcient transport,personalised education,improved software for everyday tasks,and increased agricultural crop yields.It is predicted that,by 2040,AI applicatio

129、ns will afect almost every aspect of life.94 Aside from profitone study finds that early adopters of AI in the transport and logistics sector enjoyed profit margins higher than 5%its potential in driving efciency and achieving sustainability goals will be a key driver of AI adoption in the future.95

130、 A Microsoft and PwC report highlights the fact that AI used in sustainability-related contexts could add up to US$5.2trn to the global economy by 2030.96 Like others,the maritime sector stands to benefit.Commercial ships will increasingly rely on machine learning,AI and satellite technology to impr

131、ove shipping safety and efciency.Todays empirical models process only about 10%of vessel data,compared with 90%for AI models,which can then generate accurate performance insights.In this way,AI-driven models can optimise decision-making,and even address safety issues that may arise due to lack of si

132、tuational awareness or data.97,98 By 2050 there is the possibility that remotely controlled or even fully autonomous small commercial ships could operate near coastal areas with absolutely no crew onboard.99 Generative AI also has applications.SeaGPT,an AI chatbot tool to simplify communication betw

133、een crew managers and port agents,automates processes such as drafting emails and extracting essential information from communications with the port agency for crew members,who highlight email overload as a concern.100,101 SeaGPT is expected to eventually become an executive assistant to the crewrun

134、ning in the background and retrieving relevant data to handle communication that does not require direct human involvement.102 For widespread AI use,however,it is important to note that interoperability issues,regulation and policy bottlenecks will need to be addressed.103 Todays empirical models pr

135、ocess only about 10%of vessel data,compared with 90%for AI models,which can then generate accurate performance insights.The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 2050212.Increased integration of the metaverse and immersive technologiesHuman avatars or simulated versions of places such as concer

136、ts or workplaces in the metaverse will become the norm in 2050.104 The metaverse is a virtual,three-dimensional space where people can virtually interact with each other.It is described as an extension of the internet,providing a more immersive experience that is based on imitating the real world.10

137、5 Visualisation technologies,such as augmented reality(AR),virtual reality(VR)and mixed reality(MR),together sometimes referred to as extended reality(XR),can enable a fully immersive experience for metaverse users.106 According to research conducted by Pew,54%of experts anticipate the metaverse bec

138、oming a more refined,fully immersive and well-functioning aspect of daily life for a half billion or more people globally by 2040.107 By the 2030s,the expectation is that substantial parts of the world will be digitalised and explorable.108 As these technologies advance,they will increasingly have t

139、he potential to support training,maintenance and remote-control functions in the maritime sector.They ofer new ways to visualise operational tasks either on-site or remotely.For example,a use case for MR training would be to pre-experience possible dangerous situations on-board an ofshore asset or a

140、 vessel at sea,without impacting facility operations for training purposes.This is a cheaper and more accessible alternative.109,110 Especially also in light of shutdowns,such as those seen during the covid-19 pandemic,XR-supported training can help continue education for seafarers.111 Challenges to

141、 the adoption of these technologies include expensive and unreliable internet connectivity at sea coupled with the turbulence experienced by ships.These applications mainly rely on GPS sensors to align a virtual model with the real world,and the ships motion adds extra components to this calculation

142、.112 3.Better connectivity will further the use of the Internet of Things across sectors The excitement over the Internet of Things(IoT)is driven by its ability to bring previously isolated objects,from fridges to Ferraris,online.Data collected from IoT sensors can be monitored,fed back to instigate

143、 an action,inform the design of an algorithm or trigger a response in another connected object,maybe hundreds of miles away.113 The benefits of using IoT lie in the collection and analysis of the data generated through the technology,and then using this information to inform next steps.114 Any indus

144、try reliant on making,moving or selling objects that were previously not connected to the internet stands to benefit.For example,sensors can be used to reduce waste by optimising lighting or heating based on occupancy levels or reduce in-transit product spoilage by monitoring temperatures.115 The ma

145、ritime IoT market was forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%between 2020 and 2027.By this year,shipping organisations plan to invest US$2.5m on IoT-based solutions,achieving cost savings of about 14%.116,117 This growth can be achieved on the back of improving connectivity at se

146、a through the use of lower Earth orbit satellites and 5G capabilities to enable higher data rates and security.There will be an expected 30.9 billion IoT units in 2025,up from 13.8 billion in 2021.118 Other IoT applications in the maritime sector include the use of radio frequency identification(RFI

147、D)to increase speed and safety in the movement of goods and better manage ports by addressing scaling and privacy issues.119,120 IoT sensors ensure complete visibility of devices,which enable vessel operators to control and monitor remote maritime assets,and safeguard ofshore assets from damage,thef

148、t and unauthorised movement.121 Global Maritime Trends 205022 The Economist Group 20234.Global consensus and collaboration to facilitate the adoption of block chain technologyThe buzz around blockchain technology has grown since 2015,and representatives from many industries have joined an open,if un

149、structured,discussion on the potential disruptive capabilities of this emerging technology.By 2030 it is predicted that it will be easier and faster to exchange value and data among users,institutions and countries as the use of blockchain technology ensures instant,across-the-board transparency,all

150、owing for improved traceability.122,123,124 Blockchain technology could bring efciencies into existing bureaucratic processes.Areas that could stand to benefit include reducing the likelihood of shipping delays,which are often caused by slow manual administrative processes.Another is in reducing pro

151、cessing and administration costs,which can comprise nearly a fifth of total transport costs.According to an estimate from 2017,digitalising paperwork could save the sector a total of US$38m per year.Blockchain provides companies with the framework to speed up business operations,keep real-time track

152、 of cargo,improve visibility in the global supply chain,and reduce customs clearance time,costs and risks.125,126 To unlock this potential,the industry is already piloting blockchain applications.The Norwegian Seafood Association,for instance,is using the technology to share supply-chain data throug

153、hout the industry.127 Blockchain can also provide specific data about fish origin,including where they were produced,what they were fed,when they were harvested,and how they were processed and transported.128 In 2018 an efort to digitalise the supply chain through a blockchain-enabled global trade p

154、latform was launched.Within this,port and terminal operators,shipping companies,customs authorities,freight forwarders,logistics companies and other players could exchange data securely and collaborate efciently.However,completely embedding blockchain requires full industry buy-in.129,130 A notewort

155、hy example is the October 2022 partnership between the Australian Border Force with Singapore to complete a blockchain trial of international trade documents.131 Blockchain can provide specific data about fish origin,including where they were produced,what they were fed,when they were harvested,and

156、how they were processed and transported.Global Maritime Trends 205023 The Economist Group 2023Social trends1.The automation of the workplaceAs advanced technologies become more accessible and cheaper,workplaces are seeing more automation.This will require workers to develop new skills,which could re

157、alise more value,but it also raises concerns over potential job losses.As many as 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way by the newest wave of AI(including platforms such as ChatGPT).132 As such,the ubiquity of AI,smart devices and the metaverse(see above)will req

158、uire a newly trained workforce.These trends will extend to the maritime sector.Approximately 1.8 million people make up the maritime workforcetheir roles and responsibilities are expected to change with time as advanced technologies are increasingly used in the industry.As such,future workers will r

159、equire a new set of skills.According to a survey conducted by the Korean Ministry of Trade,Industry and Energy,for instance,the introduction of smart and eco-friendly ships in the industry will raise the required number of technical employees from 35,549 in 2018 to 49,000 in 2028.133 2.The advent of

160、 a knowledge-assisted economyAs society moves to embrace technology,data and a more“advanced practice of production”,134 the knowledge economy will evolve into a knowledge-assisted economy where people are assisted by custom versions of AI and other digital tools to complement their existing skills.

161、135,136 Intellectual capital will remain critical,but will be enhanced by the benefits of custom technologies.137 As discussed above,the advent of this will come with important social implications for workers and skill demands.A study of the US workforce,for instance,estimates that around 19%of work

162、ers could see at least 50%of their tasks impacted by large language models such as generative pretrained transformers(GPT).138 This could make the maritime industry more appealing to a newer generation of seafarers and also help alleviate some of the challenges that these workers face around health

163、and wellbeing,connectivity between shore and sea,and system and process efciencies.139 In this context,it will be crucial for the industry to focus on skills centred around digital technologies and systems.140 According to a survey conducted by the Korean Ministry of Trade,Industry and Energy,the in

164、troduction of smart and eco-friendly ships in the industry will raise the required number of technical employees from 35,549 in 2018 to 49,000 in 2028.Global Maritime Trends 205024 The Economist Group 20233.The movement of people for employment opportunities and climate repercussionsMigration will c

165、ontinue to shape economies and societies,but the decades ahead will see these driven by labour shortages in the West and the need to adapt to climate change.However,the majority of African and Middle Eastern countries,unlike their European and North American counterparts,are set to see a larger work

166、ing-age population,and therefore a stronger labour force.141,142 Population growth has the potential to boost innovation,particularly in Africawhere the digital economy is projected to reach US$180bn by 2025 and US$712bn by 2050.143 Investing in digital skills and infrastructure will be key if these

167、 outcomes are to materialise.144 For economies with ageing populations,governments will be implementing policies that encourage the immigration of skilled workers from countries with growing populations.145 Migration will also take place in order to deal with the direct impacts of climate change(see

168、 above),which will be felt most intensely in countries across Africa.146 The influx of migrants,however,may also contribute to social friction(see below)and give rise to maritime safety and security issues around the rights of incoming migrants and risks of human trafcking.For the maritime sector,sh

169、ifting population dynamics will directly impact the overall global supply of labour to the industry as well as their demographics.That being said,the maritime sector already depends on a labour market based on the import of labour.147 As such,rising populations in African nations may supplant domina

170、nt sources of labour supply to the industry,which are predominately Asian countries,particularly the Philippines.4.Multiplied inequalities and social frictionThe anticipated period of short-term economic slowdown and long-term climate impacts will worsen inequalities within and between countries in

171、the medium to long term.The Economist Intelligence Unit expects stagnated growth in most of the developed world in 2023,with slow rebounds from 2024 onwards and persisting economic uncertainties.148 In the long term,the working class,youth and marginalised communities will face financial pressures a

172、nd setbacks,particularly where social safety nets are lacking.As a result,this will multiply inequalities within countries and social frictions will emerge.Already,top-down financial pressures have resulted in industrial action in the form of strikes across much of Europe,particularly the UK.149,150

173、 To add to this,the influx of migrants for economic and climate reasons(see above)will exacerbate tensions.151 The just transition is gaining momentum in the context of climate change for similar reasons.The net zero transition will spawn new industries that require new skills.152 This comes with ri

174、sks for workers,including maritime workers and seafarers(see above).In the regions most immediately impacted by climate change,social friction may be driven by forced internal migration.For instance,the World Bank estimates that up to 86 million Africans,40 million South Asians and 17 million Latin

175、Americans will have to migrate within their own countries by 2050 as regions become unliveable.153 This may exacerbate existing conflicts,especially in states that are already considered fragile.154 Global Maritime Trends 205025 The Economist Group 2023Four futures for the maritime sector in 2050The

176、 trends outlined in the preceding section can be combined in varying ways to create very diferent futures for the maritime sector.To refine these possible outcomes,Economist Impact analysed the trends across two axes:the nature of global co-operation on the climate agenda and the speed of technology

177、 uptake.Climate change and decarbonisation are set to be defining challenges for the coming decades.“The whole question of trends that will shape the world up to 2050 needs to be looked at in line with what the IPCC is predicting,”says Peter Thomson,the UN secretary-generals special envoy for the oc

178、ean.“There are low confidence and high confidence scenarios that depend on the actions we take today.This is primarily what will dictate what the world will look like in 2050,and what will determine the reality of life on this planet in the 21st century.”Similarly,technology is advancing rapidly and

179、 a crucial question will be the speed with which these are disseminated across the globe and how.“We need a radical new approach to innovation,”argues Kevin Forshaw,director of industrial and strategic partnerships at the University of Plymouth.“Its not just the technology itselfthat in many ways is

180、 already being done.To actually enable technology to flourish,developments in regulation have to take place at a global scale.”“The whole question of trends that will shape the world up to 2050 needs to be looked at in line with what the IPCC is predicting.There are low confidence and high confidenc

181、e scenarios that depend on the actions we take today.This is primarily what will dictate what the world will look like in 2050,and what will determine the reality of life on this planet in the 21st century.”Peter Thomson,UN secretary-generals special envoy for the ocean,UN The Economist Group 2023Gl

182、obal Maritime Trends 205026Across the two axes,the following four futures have been identified:1.Just,gradual transition:high global co-operation combined with a gradual uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.2.Rapid,tech-driven transition:high global co-operation combined with a rapid uptake of

183、 novel and/or advanced technology.3.Regionalised and fragmented transition:high global fragmentation combined with a rapid uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.4.Delayed transition:high global fragmentation combined with a slow uptake of novel and/or advanced technology.Below,we outline some o

184、f the key assumptions of each of these futures in more detail.The assumptions of these futures are grounded in the trends identified by the literature review as well as the findings from our 16 expert interviews.Source:Economist ImpactFigure 3:Futures matrixRapidGradualCo-operationFragmentationJust,

185、gradual transitionRapid tech-driven transitionDelayed transitionRegionalised and fragmented transitionSpeed of technology uptakeNature of global co-operation on climate agendaGlobal Maritime Trends 205027 The Economist Group 2023Just,gradual transitionA just,gradual transition sees high levels of gl

186、obal co-operation combined with the gradual but regulated integration of novel technologies.It encompasses broader discussions on what the maritime sector needs to do to decarbonise successfully and equitably.“Shipping is at a crossroads,and is embarking on a future where it will be much more integr

187、ated with other sectors and,in particular,land-based challenges,particularly when looking at fuels and technology uptake”,says Andrew Stephens,executive director at the Sustainable Shipping Initiative(SSI).Elizabeth Petit Gonzlez,head of communications and partnerships at SSI,is concerned about the

188、just transition element of the transition,which if not taken into account early in the decision-making process may only benefit the global north:“countries of the global south and small island developing states many of whom are very reliant on shipping for their survival and already face higher ship

189、ping costs risk being left out and having to sufer the negative impacts of emissions and air and water pollution for longer.For this dynamic to shift we need to think not just about where power is concentrated but how it is distributed.”This transition in the maritime sector will be guided by an int

190、ergovernmental agreement that successfully limits global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2050 and paves the way for the integration of novel technologies.According to Hyun-ho Lee,vice president at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and managing director of the Maritime Research Institute,“for shipping companies,

191、the major issue is working toward carbon neutrality,and what the next fuel and energy sources will be.As such,there will be diferent sets of fuels used in 2050 that will require diferent systems such as engines,fuel supply systems,fuel tanks and bunkering infrastructures.Also,the needs of training a

192、nd hiring onboard crews“Shipping is at a crossroads,and is embarking on a future where it will be much more integrated with other sectors and,in particular,land-based challenges,particularly when looking at fuels and technology uptake.”Andrew Stephens,executive director,Sustainable Shipping Initiati

193、ve(SSI)The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 205028for operating new diferent systems will be increased”.In addition to this,“ship owners will need to focus on retrofitting these alternative fuels.That will be the key task,as ship size and energy use are greatly interlinked,”explains Hing C

194、hao,executive chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings,emphasising that retrofitting onboard carbon capture utilisation and storage systems could be an important part of the strategy as well.JB Rae-Smith,vice president at the UK Chamber of Shipping and director,Private Group Companies,John

195、Swire&Sons,does not expect a silver bullet alternative fuel to emerge in the future,as“nothing that is going to run ships in a commercially viable manner is not in discussions alreadyincluding hydrogen or ammonia.”But in this future,technology integration will take place gradually:reflecting some of

196、 the difculties associated with reaching global consensus,distributing the benefits,and ensuring that policy,investments,and health and safety standards progress at a steady pace.This is only possible under the assumption that countries took action to reduce emissions in the early to mid-2020s,which

197、 enabled them to integrate technology early,and scale these solutions gradually.155 Additionally,alternative fuels(for instance,ammonia156)can be toxic.As a result,ship owners will need to thoroughly integrate seafarer safety precautions into how they design new vessels and retrofit existing vessels

198、 for the use and transport of these fuels.Beyond this,the use of new fuels will need reskilling and education for crew,so that workers feel empowered to safely handle them.In this context,safety and training will be key to ensure a just transition for the workers involved.157 Rapid,tech-driven trans

199、itionHigh levels of global co-operation may also be accompanied by rapid integration of novel technologies across the maritime sector.This futurea rapid,tech-driven transitionwould see automated solutions,smart technologies,fuel and system efciencies,and higher levels of data sharing.158“I believe i

200、ndustry will move faster than IMO International Maritime Organization targets,which is why I feel very confident about the future of fuels and technologies like green hydrogen,”says Mr Thomson.As such,the assumption in this future is that global co-operation on decarbonisation will mandate the rapid

201、 roll-out of novel technologies through high investments,economic incentives and favourable policies that can keep up with the pace of industry innovations.“If the world globally gets on track for zero emissions,there will be economic incentives and the maritime industry will massively change,”expla

202、ins Katie Higginbottom,head of the ITF Seafarers Trust.In this context,the technological trends identified can manifest in the maritime sector in a number of ways:afecting fuel sources,trade dynamics,vessel designs,port infrastructure and skill requirements.“When enabling some of these technologies

203、in the open sea,you need good connectivity,and right now,there just isnt,”says Nick Bartlett,who is the director and the lead for financial services,insurance,transportation and manufacturing at the Future Today Institute.“With the increase of satellite-based internet and satellite connection,thats

204、going to become much easier:as the technology continues to scale and gets cheaper and more efcient,itll be a lot easier for people to communicate back to the ship more in real time.This will help drive a lot of the developments.”The rapid uptake of technology,if done collaboratively,could also mean

205、that maritime jobs are better protected.Global Maritime Trends 205029 The Economist Group 2023“Even with automation,there will still need to be people on board ships to deal with the safety requirements.The maritime industry will need to compete with other sectors for talent”,explains Ms Higginbotto

206、m.Mr Stephens echoes this sentiment:“Recent history has seen cost as the primary focus when it comes to seafarers,but new skills associated with rapid technological uptake may change this.”But this future is not without its risks,the main one being cybersecurity.“At the moment,cyber risks are not so

207、 big for ships,as they are not as connected in real time as other sectors,”explains Ben Abraham,CEO of Global Marine at Willis Towers Watson.“However,autonomous ships that are more connected open up a whole new can of worms in terms of potential cyber exposure.”Echoing this,Mr Forshaw adds:“Increasi

208、ng the autonomy of vessels opens up massive risks around cybersecurity and the potential to cause very serious disruption.Not only in vessels,but also port operations.So,although its a good thing in terms of efciency,we need to be adopting very diferent risk assessment processes to deal with this.”B

209、asil Germond,chair in international security at Lancaster University,warns that another security risk is undersea infrastructure:“It is evident that the security of undersea infrastructure will be key.Not just the energy infrastructure and pipelines,but also the communication infrastructure which is

210、 also vulnerable to cyberattacks.Developing security mechanisms to address future threats will be important.”“Increasing the autonomy of vessels opens up massive risks around cybersecurity and the potential to cause very serious disruption.Not only in vessels,but also port operations.So,although its

211、 a good thing in terms of efficiency,we need to be adopting very different risk assessment processes to deal with this.”Kevin Forshaw,director of industrial and strategic partnerships,University of Plymouth“Even with automation,there will still need to be people on board ships to deal with the safet

212、y requirements.The maritime industry will need to compete with other sectors for talent.”Katie Higginbottom,head,ITF Seafarers TrustGlobal Maritime Trends 205030 The Economist Group 2023Regionalised and fragmented transitionAt the other end of the matrix,a regionalised and fragmented transition woul

213、d combine low levels of co-operation with the rapid integration of technology.Stephen Cotton,general secretary of the International Transport Workers Federation,believes we are already seeing hints of this:“In the supply chain,we are already observing concepts like nearshoring and ofshoring.”Accordi

214、ng to Johannah Christensen,managing director at the Global Maritime Forum,frustration with intergovernmental processes may be the source of this:“Its not fragmentation that is leading to IMO breakdown in negotiations,its lack of progress in the IMO that may lead to greater fragmentation.”Significant

215、 geopolitical changes will also underpin this.Mr Germond explains that the current power dynamics may change with the rise of China:“Western countries have benefited from enduring control of global oceans.This allowed them to grow their economies,control supply chains and project military power glob

216、ally.What happens next depends on China,and the nature of their leadership contest.This will have an important maritime dimension both in terms of naval and economic power.”Finally,population dynamics will play a role,as they will be a source of consumer demand and economic growth in other Asian and

217、 African economies.“Indonesia will be one of the most important economies in 2050 and is located on important shipping lanes and choke points,”explains Mr Germond.“From the point of view of any state,it will be strategically wise to build this relationship.India too is poised to have more room for m

218、anoeuvre,especially in the face of China.”Mr Chao similarly argues,saying that“the developing countries of today will move from playing only an exporting role towards also being end-users of products,becoming important participants in the global supply chain.”“The developing countries of today will

219、move from playing only an exporting role towards also being end-users of products,becoming important participants in the global supply chain.”Hing Chao,executive chairman,Wah Kwong Maritime Transport HoldingsGlobal Maritime Trends 205031 The Economist Group 2023“The combined trend of deglobalisation

220、 and automation will have a significant impact on what will be moved by sea,”mentions Mr Rae-Smith.Deglobalisation may lead to a downscaling of assets,from ports to vessels.“Those who have invested in mega transhipment hubs will suddenly have to rethink,as de-globalisation and regionalisation will m

221、ean that scale from transhipment is no longer your competitive advantage.The importance of a port wont necessarily be based only on its size,but increasingly its strategic ability to hold on to a specific type of trade.I think this will open up new areas and regions to trade,”says Jesper Kristensen,

222、group chief operating ofcer for marine services at DP World.Mr Chao adds to this:“The fragmentation of global trade will lead to smaller ships being in greater demand,as they will have more flexibility and ability to trade across territorial borders.”The assumption here is that countries may be unab

223、le to co-operate on decarbonisationwhether due to geopolitical or economic priority diferencesand,in turn,will rely on the rapid integration of technology to unilaterally meet national climate objectives and adapt quickly to growing climate challenges.As such,the rates of technological integration w

224、ill vary by country,as the absence of co-operation will mean that technological adoption depends on financial and technical capacity.The risk here is that poorer economies will be left behind,exacerbating economic inequalities.Another is that technologies are deployed without careful consideration a

225、nd preparation.Given the latter,the risks of cyber attacks in this future are particularly high.Limited co-operation,restricted data sharing and high intergovernmental tensions may leave room for more bad actors to operate with limited oversight.“A big concern is the potential for bad actorsorganisa

226、tions or even nation statesthat want to disrupt commerce and shut things down.There will be a lot more opportunities for this in that future,”says Mr Bartlett.Maritime trade will also be severely impacted.According to Stavros Karamperidis,head of Maritime Transport Research Group at the University o

227、f Plymouth,“Once you have that fragmentation,you move away from systems that aim to ease trade to something that almost stops trade.The maritime sector is driven by derived demand,so if we do not have ease of trade,we are going to see the trade volumes drop,”he says.“Once you have that fragmentation

228、,you move away from systems that aim to ease trade to something that almost stops trade.The maritime sector is driven by derived demand,so if we do not have ease of trade,we are going to see the trade volumes drop.”Stavros Karamperides,head,Maritime Transport Research Group,University of PlymouthGlo

229、bal Maritime Trends 205032 The Economist Group 2023Delayed transitionA delayed transition describes a future where global co-operation is fragmented and technology uptake is slow,resulting in irreversible climate tipping points and what the IPCC projections deem as a worst-case scenario of a more th

230、an two degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.159 The impact of this global temperature increase across regions is likely to be uneven.According to the extreme sea level projections,the North Sea,the Atlantic coasts and the Black Sea will see the largest increases in terms of mean sea level,while the Ba

231、ltic Sea will see the smallest.160 In the coming three decades,low lying countries in Asia like Vietnam,Indonesia,the Philippines and Thailand will also be severely impacted,putting an estimated 300 million people at risk of floods in 2050.161 Humanity is forced to adapt to this planetary and climat

232、e crisis.As above,this future is an unequal onealthough the impacts of these tipping points are felt ubiquitously,the poorest economies and communities will do so most acutely.The implications of these extend across the maritime sector,forcing adaptation-led eforts across national jurisdictions.“The

233、 worsening of climate change will mean some vessels and goods will become uninsurable,due to inevitable increases in natural disasters and tougher conditions at sea that increase the risks of things going overboard,”warns Mark Bryan,senior foresight manager at the Future Today Institute.“As such,wha

234、t gets shipped comes down to what companies are willing to pay for and what they are willing to take risks on.”And,as Mr Thomson explains,“exclusive economic zone boundaries may become more contentious because of rising sea levels And large numbers of coastal communities will inevitably be forced to

235、 relocate as their lands become uninhabitable.”In the coming three decades,low lying countries in Asia like Vietnam,Indonesia,the Philippines and Thailand will also be severely impacted,putting an estimated 300 million people at risk of floods in 2050.Global Maritime Trends 205033 The Economist Grou

236、p 2023These shifts will not only alter the composition of maritime cargo,infrastructure and communities,but maritime trade routes as well.The Arctic,for instance,is rapidly becoming a new conflict centre as ice melting has created new shipping lanes,opened existing seasonal lanes for longer periods

237、of the year,and made natural resource extraction more viable.162,163,164 According to Mr Chao,these new shipping lanes will have an impact on ship design,with ice-breaking capacity becoming more relevant.A study published in Nature Communications in June 2023 estimates that the Arctic Ocean will exp

238、erience sea-ice free Septembers as early as the 2030s.165 Although there is no clear consensus on when some Arctic routes,particularly the Northwest Passage,will become suitable for regular commercial trafc,some experts predict ice-free passage through the Northern Sea Route for three to six months

239、of the year and the Northwest Passage for two to four months of the year by 2100.166 The IPCC warns that technology development will play a crucial role in mitigating and adapting to climate change.167 However,this future assumes a gradual integration of technology.Contrary to the first future,where

240、 the gradual uptake of technology is accompanied by co-ordinated eforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees,the gradual integration of technology in this context means that sufcient emissions reduction is not achieved,exacerbating the existing challenges of adapting to an increasingly uninhabitable worl

241、d.“The worsening of climate change will mean some vessels and goods will become uninsurable,due to inevitable increases in natural disasters and tougher conditions at sea that increase the risks of things going overboard.”Mark Bryan,senior foresight manager,Future Today InstituteGlobal Maritime Tren

242、ds 205034 The Economist Group 2023What if scenariosTo understand how various components of the maritime sector may transform in each of the futures discussed in the preceding section,Economist Impact developed four scenarios.They are purely fictional,but are based on the assumptions outlined above a

243、nd the findings of our literature review.The first two scenarios,on green hydrogen and automated technology solutions,depict optimistic visions for the future of the maritime sector.Conversely,the latter two scenarios,on fragmentation and sea-level rise,present two bleaker possibilities for the sect

244、or(and our planet).The purpose of this exercise is to ofer industry leaders and policymakers a snapshot into what the global maritime sector could look like should we either succeed or fail to act on the shrinking window of opportunity to prevent the worst efects of climate change.The hope is that t

245、his will empower these individuals to act now,strategically and intentionally,for the safe and sustainable future that they would like to see for themselves and their business,and position the maritime sector as an enabler of change rather than a reactor.Source:Economist ImpactFigure 4:Four what if

246、scenarios for the maritime sectorRapid tech-driven transitionDelayed transitionJust,gradual transitionWhat if nations embrace widespread adoption of green hydrogen by 2050?What if automated technology solutions became widely adopted in the maritime industry by 2050?What if regionalisation and popula

247、tion expansion lead to deglobalisation and fragmented global maritime trade by 2050?What if average global sea levels rise by at least 40 cm by 2050?Regionalised and fragmented transitionGlobal Maritime Trends 205035 The Economist Group 2023WHAT IF METHODOLOGYEach of the what if scenarios discussed

248、below are situated within the assumptions that have been laid out above for their respective futures.Economist Impact recognises that,in each of the futures,a variety of other scenarios could have been explored.For instance,within the just,gradual transition future,we could have zoomed into another

249、fuel(for instance,methanol)or centred the discussion on themes like the successful deployment of climate adaptation finance or widespread uptake of alternative seafood protein sources.Our choices for the what if scenarios are not meant to reflect Economist Impacts predictions of what is more importa

250、nt and/or more likely.The decision on each of the four instead came out of discussions with internal and external experts to determine what elements would be the most interesting to explore for the maritime sector.Once the themes were identified,Economist Impact sought to explore how developments in

251、 each of the four scenarios would impact the five components of the maritime sector:trade,energy,vessels,ports and people.To this end,Economist Impact conducted additional desk research of grey literature and structured our expert interviews to understand,more broadly,what would be required for each

252、 of the four scenarios to become a reality.More specifically,however,we researched and inquired about what studies exist to measure or estimate the impacts of each scenario on the five components,what specific changes would be required in the maritime sector to adapt to this,and how the industry has

253、 been preparing or intends to prepare for these specific changes.We relied on the findings of these exercises to develop these scenarios,and ensured that despite being fictional and hypothetical,they remain grounded in reality and consensus regarding what would be required of the sector,and what the

254、 key implications are.Some impacts were more obvious than others.We incorporated these regardless.But to ensure that each scenario presents a fresh take on the topic,we sought to centre the narrative of each scenario on a slightly less prominent,albeit,possible,repercussion.For instance,the possible

255、(and existing)impacts of sea level rises on ports are well covered in existing literature.So this is featured in our scenario,but it was not the focus.Instead,the opening of the Arctic passageand therefore,the relationship between sea level rises and maritime tradeis a possibility being discussed by

256、 researchers and industry experts globally but is less frequently focused on in discussions.As such,our scenarios are by no means exhaustive or entirely representative of all the ways these changes will afect the sector,whether it is green hydrogen adoption or trade fragmentation.Global Maritime Tre

257、nds 205036 The Economist Group 2023nations embrace widespread adoption of green hydrogen by 2050?Note:each of these scenarios is fiction,but grounded in historical fact,current speculation and real science.They are set in the diferent possible futures identified in the preceding section.It has been

258、25 years since the historic agreement of 2025,which saw over 194 heads of state agree to ban any new national oil and gas developments,mandate the complete phase out of fossil fuels across sectors by 2050,and distribute energy transition benefits equally through loss and damage funds.168 In response

259、,the IMO revised its decarbonisation targets of reducing CO2 emissions by 40%by 2030 and 70%by 2050169 to a 90%reduction by 2040 and complete eradication by 2050.170 These targets gave industry the impetus it needed to develop zero-carbon fuels at the level that was required,which was a challenge in

260、itially,but which ultimately spurred a green hydrogen revolution.In 2021 fossil-based fuels accounted for 99%of energy consumption in international shipping.171 Transitioning away from this required diferent tanks,vessels and skills,at the same time as undoing old habits and ways of working.New cent

261、res of energy powerIn the early 2020s and 2030s a handful of countries were at the forefront of green hydrogen.Japan was one of these:in 2023 it announced plans to promote a“hydrogen society”,in turn providing support for the production of hydrogen and ammonia supply chains and infrastructure,and la

262、ying the groundwork for becoming one of the biggest importers.172,173 Other first movers in this space included South Korea,the US,the EU and China,all of which continue to lead this space today.174 Additionally,due to its dependence on solar energy,green hydrogen also gave some former oil producers

263、 the opportunity to reinvent themselves.Saudi Arabia was once a dominant oil exporter,but the 2025 mandate to phase out fossil fuels meant that the country had just ten years to significantly restructure its economy and raise its national decarbonisation ambitions.In 2023,it announced plans to devel

264、op a single-site solar power plan with a generation capacity of 2,060 MW.175 This paved the way for its new role as a leader in solar energy and green hydrogen exports.176 The increased importance of solar also empowered Africa to become a key energy exporting region.In 2022,despite being home to 60

265、%of the worlds solar resources,the region produced just 1%of global solar capacity.Yet,in 2022,the region already produced 40%of global minerals,critical components for hydrogen technologies.Egypt,Mauritania,Morocco,Namibia and South Africa already announced plans in the early 2020s to develop low c

266、arbon hydrogen projects.By 2030 the region was producing 5,000 megatons of hydrogen per year and was able to export a portion of this to Northern Europe at competitive prices.177 SCENARIO:What if.Global Maritime Trends 205037 The Economist Group 2023Ammonia as a carrierThe debate waged in the 2020s

267、on the most suitable mode for transporting hydrogen proved decisive.At the time,the shipping industry already had experience carrying ammonia as cargo,and therefore developed a strong sense of the safety considerations associated with this.Conversely,there was much less experience transporting liqui

268、d hydrogen and while toxicity is not a concern,hydrogen can be flammable.178 In comparison,ammonia presents little risk of combustion and has lower storage requirements due to its higher density.179 Liquid hydrogen also needs to be stored at a far colder temperature than ammonia(minus 253C vs minus

269、33C).180 Further refinement of conversion technologies in the 2030s,which led to more efcient conversion of ammonia to hydrogen,cemented ammonias position as a carrier.Hello to new strategic portsThe widespread use of green hydrogen prompted city planners and industry leaders to rethink port infrast

270、ructure and strategy.From the mid-2020s onwards,hubs for distribution of hydrogen and ammonia started popping up in various parts of the world.These entailed developing import and export storage and supply infrastructure.The Port of Hastings in Australia began positioning itself as a strategic expor

271、t facility as early as 2020,181,182 setting the foundation for a green hydrogen corridor from Australia to Japan.183 Similarly,South Africa developed a new port of Boegoe Baai,which was focused on the production and export of hydrogen in the form of ammonia to the port of Rotterdam.184 Global Mariti

272、me Trends 205038 The Economist Group 2023Investing in peopleOver 750,000 seafarers required additional training between 2020 and 2050 as a result of the worlds successful decarbonisation eforts.185 Ships transporting ammonia are equipped with more advanced technologies and systems.This required exte

273、nsive reskilling and training programmes and paved the way for womens inclusion.The need for more tech-savvy ship managers enabled more women to take on managing positions on land and at sea.186 Additionally,the wider uptake of advanced automation technologies reduced the number of physical tasks re

274、quired on board,gradually undoing the culture of masculinity associated with seafaring jobs.187 In 2021 just 1.2%of the global seafarer workforce was women.188 Last year,in 2049,the target set in 2020,for women to make up a quarter of all seafarers by 2040,was finally met.189 The widespread adoption

275、 of green hydrogen that we see today within the maritime sector owes its success to the political backing for decarbonisation across states.This spurred public investments,subsidies and incentives towards producing renewable energy and reduced some of the upfront costs associated with green hydrogen

276、.Through efective global co-operation and incremental changes to technologies including a gradual shift in fuelling systems,a just energy transition could be achieved.Global Maritime Trends 205039 The Economist Group 2023automated technology solutions became widely adopted in the maritime sector by

277、2050?Note:each of these scenarios is fiction,but grounded in historical fact,current speculation and real science.They are set in the diferent possible futures identified in the preceding section.Earlier this year,when hackers took control of a key port in Belgium,the maritime sector came face to fa

278、ce with the harsh realities of a highly interconnected world.But port operations only sufered short delays before operators were able to resolve the issues and regain control of their systems.Global co-operation and agreements on cybersecurity protocols put in place over the past two decades have ma

279、de this possible.The attack on the Antwerp port is not the first of its kind,but just one example of how timely intervention,efective collaboration and pre-existing cybersecurity protocols can limit negative repercussions through enhanced resilience.The new normal of ships and vessels The worlds fir

280、st autonomous cargo ship made its maiden voyage in 2022.The ship,Suzaka,completed a 500-mile journey from Tokyo Bay to Ise Bay navigated entirely by AI.190,191 Today,remotely controlled and even fully autonomous commercial ships are the new normal.Indeed,as of 2040,about 11-17%of the global shipping

281、 fleet was autonomous.192,193 These use companion drones to assist with situational awareness and have holographic displays of ship systems for shore-based operators or“digital captains”.194,195 But these ships manage a large number of tasks autonomously,including course corrections,docking and carg

282、o handling through on-going data exchange with“smart”ports.Now,automation and advanced analytics help determine the best path by factoring in weather conditions,optimal fuel usage and unforeseen events relying on real-time forecasts.196,197 Contrary to the expectations and speculations that prevaile

283、d in the early 2020s,the importance of human supervision remains critical;albeit such workers exist in smaller numbers and have adopted vastly diferent roles and responsibilities,which require new skills.Seafarers are now controlling the system that steers the ships as opposed to steering the ship t

284、hemselves.This was made possible through the use of IoT,robotics and predictive analytics.As such,industry roles have transformed from mostly ship-based to mostly shore-based roles.198The emergence of autonomous ships was preceded by the 2018 IMO working group,the Correspondence Group on Autonomous

285、Ships,that adopted guidelines for safely operating ships using remote and autonomous technologies.199,200 The IMOs early eforts in SCENARIO:What if.Global Maritime Trends 205040 The Economist Group 20232022-23 to regulate the operations of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships(MASS)focused on balancing

286、the benefits derived from new,advanced technologies with safety and security concerns,impacts on the environment,and international trade facilitation.201(MASS refers to a ship that can,to varying degrees,operate without human interaction.Degree fouradopted by the industry since 2040refers to a compl

287、etely autonomous ship)202A knowledge-assisted economyFears of technology,specifically AI and automation,replacing the human workforce dominated discussions in the 2020s.These have since abated.While automation had the potential to reduce demand for seafarers by around 22%between 2020 and 2040,these

288、impacts were ofset by the uptick in global maritime trade,which saw demand for seafarers increase within that period.203 The human workforce was not replaced by technology.Instead,the knowledge economy was merely replaced by a knowledge-assisted economy.Technology-powered assistants,such as chatbots

289、 or voice assistants204,have brought in more efciencies and greater safety.In the maritime sector in particular,AI-powered assistants manage inventories and conduct incident investigations,speeding up the retrieval of relevant information and automating some routine tasks.Technology initially slowed

290、 the growth in the number of seafarers needed,205 but global collaboration ensured that overall trade volumes increased sufciently to prevent the loss of jobs.This allows the crew to spend more time maintaining the ship and applying themselves to their work with greater knowledge in the safest way p

291、ossible.206 The push for autonomy in the sector was driven by the need to make the environment safer for the seafarers,for example by protecting them from hazardous environments and reducing accidents.What has changed since the 2020s,however,are the skills required:as the industry embraced more expe

292、nsive and complex technologies across fuels,vessel design and port logistics,this also meant competition for skilled workers.Todayand in stark contrast to the early 2020sthe maritime sector has to compete with other sectors for talent and workers.As a result,the industry saw better paying,higher qua

293、lifying jobs that gave seafarers and land-crew more leverage than before.Inspired by the uptick of industrial action that characterised the 2020s,the maritime workers of 2050 used this newly acquired leverage to successfully push for strict regulations on working hours,job security,working condition

294、s,and operational safety and health.The human workforce was not replaced by technology.Instead,the knowledge economy was merely replaced by a knowledge-assisted economy.Technology-powered assistants,such as chatbots or voice assistants,have brought in more efficiencies and greater safety.300Global M

295、aritime Trends 205041 The Economist Group 2023Customs clearance and ship repairs in the metaverseBeyond fundamental automation of processes,the use of alternative reality and the metaverse sets the maritime sector apart from other industries.Back in 2021-22 the initial hype around the metaverse abat

296、ed,stalling its application across industries,including the maritime sector.High costs associated with collecting,processing and storing the required high-resolution data was a major roadblock.However,as other technologies advanced,the metaverse and VR were inevitably integrated into maritime system

297、s and processes.Early use of the metaverse in the shipping industry was seen in services to assist decarbonisation eforts.Generative 3D design software enabled optimal retrofitting,speeding up the decarbonisation of existing fleets.Moreover,extended reality visualisation tools enabled remote operati

298、ons by connecting ships with their 3D virtual models and data.207 This facilitated surveyors to assess damage to ships and repair crew to fix systems remotely,using robots with ultrasonic probes on a ship to measure the extent of damage.Importantly,this allows the shipping industry to tap into the b

299、est and most cost-efective talent around the world.Today,ships rarely dock at ports for simple repairs as these are conducted at sea remotely through the metaverse.Customs clearance has also been revolutionised in the metaverse.The creation of virtual customs windows has meant that ships can complet

300、e customs procedures long before reaching physical borders.A new generation of marine robots are deployed to ships for inspection,equipped with AI-driven cameras which generate navigable holograms for inspectors.This has dramatically reduced wait times and enhanced efciency of border control operati

301、ons.Training institutes are also commonly using metaverse and immersive technology-driven alternative reality models that provide seafarers with a close to reality simulation of what their routine and tasks on ships would look like.This is a marked improvement from early 2025,where education held th

302、e smallest market share(2%)of AR and VR by use case globally.208 In addition to its use in training,immersive technologies are helping design digital twin models that accurately predict the remaining service life of a ship,providing valuable insights for ship inspection,maintenance planning and oper

303、ational decision-making.209 Although the use of these technologies started with training modules,they are now also used across various phases of a ships life cycle,ranging from design and manufacturing to operation and maintenance,as well as for sustainable end-of-life ship dismantling.Harmonious re

304、gulation,as well as high levels of co-operation,are necessary for the maritime sector to reap the benefits of automation and virtual realities while managing the challenges.These high levels of collaboration that have characterised the past 30 years have enabled countries to mitigate the threats of

305、cyber attacks and ensure that technological innovation in the sector fosters better paying,higher quality jobs,and more trade.Immersive technologies are helping design digital twin models that accurately predict the remaining service life of a ship,providing valuable insights for ship inspection,mai

306、ntenance planning and operational decision-making.Global Maritime Trends 205042 The Economist Group 2023regionalisation and population expansion lead to deglobalisation and fragmented global maritime trade by 2050?Note:each of these scenarios is fiction,but grounded in historical fact,current specul

307、ation and real science.They are set in the diferent possible futures identified in the preceding section.Last week,a large ship travelling from the port of Shanghai was denied entry into Europes largest port based on its failure to comply with specific technical standards.Voyages across the Asian-Eu

308、ropean shipping route,once among the busiest in the world,are no longer commonplace,and in a world of already-fragmented trade,this decision has proven both controversial and consequential.But for many experts who have been studying the fracturing of globalisation since the mid-2020s,this does not c

309、ome as a surprise.Technical barriers and smaller vesselsThe main challenge associated with these new dynamics has been the wide variations in technical standards.Rather than standardising technologies,each country and region has pursued its own form of innovation.As a result,and in order to further

310、incentivise regionalised trade,countries moved away from imposing sanctions,and towards enforcing strict technical standards.It is not uncommon now for diferent ports to have their own standards and requirements for ships entering and leaving.Ships are now smaller,as the regionalisation of trade has

311、 reduced the need for large-scale trade flows,as well as the distances travelled.The geopolitical roots of fragmentationBetween 1950 and 2020 global trade volumes increased by an aggregate of 4,500%.210 But the last decade has seen cross-continental trade over large distances become increasingly lim

312、ited to high-value goods.Underpinning this has been the trade war between the US and China.Relations began unravelling in the early 2020s over tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan;211 concerns about Chinas naval forces and anti-access capabilities;212 and competition around semiconductor and c

313、hip manufacturing.213 To safeguard national production,countries began to shift away from the globalised production systems of the early 2000s to more localised systems that rely on regional and geopolitical links.Maritime routes are therefore shorter and are dominated by trade between neighbours.Th

314、e regional trading blocs and agreements in the late 2010s and early 2020sfrom the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in Asia-Pacific to the US-Mexico-Canada agreementwere snapshots into more exclusive trade dynamics that persist today.Vessels are also increasingly being designed for short-h

315、aul trips.In addition,food has become increasingly localised,although this emerged largely out of climate necessity rather than as a reaction to global trade.SCENARIO:What if.Global Maritime Trends 205043 The Economist Group 2023Power to the populousThe past two decades have also seen drastic popula

316、tion changes that have shifted how economies function.The Democratic Republic of the Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,India,Nigeria,Pakistan,the Philippines and Tanzania were responsible for more than half of global population increases between 2022 and 2050,214 making them home to the worlds largest labour poo

317、lsand,in particular,the worlds future seafarers.By the early 2040s,populous African nations became the primary source of seafarers for the industry,previously dominated by the Philippines and India.An important driver of this was the fragmentation and regionalisation of trade,which meant that shipow

318、ners turned to regional labour pools.But perhaps more importantly,the shipping industry in Asia continues facing stif competition for labour from onshore activities,given the rise of manufacturing facilities to support localised supply chains,which created room for more African entrants.Navigating i

319、n the darkGlobal fragmentation on governance and trade has allowed dark fleets,particularly in the fishing industry,to operate under the radar.These first emerged in the 2020s,when the first global map of dark fleets was launched.215 Between 2022 and 2030 global monitoring and tracking capabilities

320、advanced,giving governments a better grasp of their main routes and activities.But the lack of global co-operation has undermined these eforts;although surveillance systems are more advanced,coordination and enforcement among national authorities is harder than it has ever been.As such,this has crea

321、ted a more conducive environment for them to operate freely.The confluence of geopolitical challenges and new population dynamics have entrenched the fragmentation and regionalisation that took root in the early 2020s.Maritime trade has adapted,but the costs of this have not gone unnoticed.Due to to

322、days entrenched regionalisation and fragmentation,international maritime trade is now increasingly costly due to lost economies of scale.Varying technical standards and the prevalence of dark fleets only complicate this further.Global Maritime Trends 205044 The Economist Group 2023average global sea

323、 levels rise by at least 40 cm by 2050?Note:each of these scenarios is fiction,but grounded in historical fact,current speculation and real science.They are set in the diferent possible futures identified in the preceding section.Emil,who turns 60 this year,ends his career as a seafarer similar to h

324、ow it began:along the Arctic shipping lane.His first job came in 2025:at the age of 35,he was asked to work on one of the few ships that crossed the Northwest Passage.Emil has worked on a range of diferent ships since,but today,in 2050,he returns from a final expedition on the same route as his maid

325、en voyage.Uncharted watersIt has been five years since Arctic Sea routes have become widely available.216 This year,the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage saw 20,000 ships transit through their shipping lanes,a record number that is comparable to the Suez Canal in 2022.217 Just 20 years ag

326、o in 2030,this passage was limited to a handful of ships,due to geological limitations and insufcient port and logistics infrastructure.Climate change has made these routes accessiblealbeit void of their previous biodiversity and climate benefitsand many others unreliable.Unreliable conditions for w

327、orkers and containersThe conditions on board are also tougher now than they have ever been.Unpredictable storms and natural disasters make being at sea riskier than ever.According to Emil,seafarers are now required to undergo training that equips them for harsh climatic conditions.“Despite all the p

328、reparations we receive,nothing prepares us for the realities on board,especially when working on routes as challenging as the Northwest Passage,”he recounts.SCENARIO:What if.The Economist Group 2023Global Maritime Trends 205045Safety and wellbeing have become an increasingly important concern for se

329、afarers like Emil.The Polar Code(an international regulation for ships operating in polar waters)was adopted as early as 2015 to ensure that ships are designed to account for operational and safety considerations in polar waters,but seafarers remain worried about the environmental conditions and haz

330、ards at sea.Vessels must also follow strict protocols to align with increasingly specific insurance requirements.Climate conditions are tough as is,but travelling through Arctic passages comes with even larger risks that make insurance companies reluctant to insure certain goods.Likewise,shipowners

331、are more nervous about how seafarers handle equipment.Fragile ports and forgotten citiesThe opening of the Arctic passage has resulted in a number of new ports in and around Canada and Greenland.218,219 It also made existing ports more accessible and strategic.In 2020 there were 16 ports along the N

332、orthern Sea Route that were ice-covered but have since become essential.220 Similarly,the ports of Kirkenes,Norway,and Vopnafrur,Iceland,are now more important due to their location.221 But these have come with high costs,not just in terms of development,but also in terms of the ports lost in the pr

333、ocess.Once hubs for economic and social activities,the ports of Shanghai,Houston and Lzaro Crdenasall of which were identified as being most at risk from climate change in 2020222are no longer in operation.Coastal communities were forced to relocate,either gradually through government programmes or immediately in response to extreme events.223 In 2020 Indonesias capital,Jakarta,was home to 30 mill