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1、DOMINIQUE VON ORELLIEVPGLOBAL HEAD OF OCEAN FREIGHTDHL Global Forwarding OCEAN FREIGHTMARKET OUTLOOK 2023Excellence.Simply delivered.PUBLICUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)ContentsOcean Freight Market Outlook 2023DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 202221Economic Outlook&Demand Development2
2、Capacity3Carriers4Outlook5RecommendationsUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Economic Outlook&Demand Development3Source:IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q4 2022 Update 8 Dec 22;1)Real GDPECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)INFLATION(YOY IN%)JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT INDEXIn many parts of the world,infla
3、tion has peaked following supply shocks emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic,Russias invasion of Ukraine,and rising energy costs.Major central banks are making a determined effort to subdue inflation through interest rate hikes and net asset sales.As a result,financial conditions are tightening.The
4、result is a broad slowdown in household and business spending.Global real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.8%in 2021 to 2.8%in 2022 and 1.4%in 2023.ObservationsDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 20222022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FCAGR(2023-26)AMER 2.2%0.2%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.9%A
5、SPA 3.4%3.8%4.6%4.3%4.3%4.4%EURO 2.3%-0.6%1.8%2.1%1.8%1.9%MEA 5.0%3.1%3.4%3.3%3.0%3.2%DGF World2.8%1.4%2.8%3.0%2.9%2.9%-20024F20202022F20212023F2025F 2026FOIL PRICE(USD PER BARREL)020406080100120140J20AJOJ21AJOJ22AJOBrentWTIDEUSCNJPUKUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)2.6 mTEU+3.3%6.7 mTEU+3.
6、8%Market volume 2022 20264Source:Seabury Dec22 updateN O R T HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C O4.6 mTEU+1.8%1.6 mTEU+2.1%1.7 mTEU+2.3%1.7 mTEU+2.5%N O R T HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C OL A T I NA M E R I C AE U R O P EI n c l.M E D15.6 mTEU+3.1%4.9 mTEU+1.5%3.6 mTEU+1.9%23.8 mTEU+3.6%1.5 mTEU+2.7%
7、6.3mTEU+4.2%F A R E A S TI N T R A A S I Aexcl.Oceania42.1 mTEU+3.5%3.0 mTEU+4.9%1.6 mTEU+3.0%L A T I NA M E R I C AM I D D L E E A S T&N O R T H A F R I C AGLOBAL CONTAINER TRADE 140.7 mTEU 2022e+3.3%CAGR 2023e 2026e3.2 mTEU+3.3%3.3 mTEU+3.1%I N T R A M E N A T2.7 mTEU+3.4%DHL Global Forwarding|OFR
8、 Market Outlook 2023|16 December 2022UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002024e2001720182022e201920212023eCapacity51)Alphaliner;2)SeaIntelligenceCarriers have spent a lot of their profits on new container ships.Some 7.5 m TEU are in the orderbooks and 2.3 m TEU of new capacity
9、 is expected to arrive next year.Capacity that has been blocked by port congestion is returning to the market as the bottlenecks ease.The new IMO 2023 regulation coming into force 1 Jan 2023 could reduce available capacity as vessels will be idle for retrofit and slow steaming will be the easiest wa
10、y to make poorly rated ships compliant.Further measures to control capacity are expected to be implemented,such as blank sailings,slow steaming,idling,scrapping and the postponement of deliveries.OCEAN SCHEDULE RELIABILITY2)Observations020406080100JFJMJMAASOND202020192022e202120222023eVESSEL DELIVER
11、IES(mTEU)1)00500600700201820162022e2002020212023e 2024eSCRAPPING(000 TEU)1)ORDERBOOK TO FLEET RATIO(IN mTEU,and AS%OF EXISTING FLEET)1)DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 20220102030400%25%5%10%15%20%30%OJJ22J21AOAOJOrderbookFleetUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)IMO 20
12、23 is the latest set of regulations on global shipping by the International Maritime Organization,the United Nations agency responsible for measures to improve the safety and security of international shipping and to prevent marine pollution from ships.IMO 2023 is introducing three new compliance me
13、asures to curb carbon dioxide emissions for carriers ships.These measures are part of the IMOs goals of reducing carbon emissions by 40%by 2030 and 70%by 2050 compared to 2008 levels.EEDI Energy Efficiency Design Index EEXI Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index CII Carbon Intensity Indicator While t
14、he EEDI and EEXI are one-time certifications targeting vessel design parameters,the CII addresses actual vessel emissions in operation.The CII is a measure of how efficiently a ship transports goods and it measures the emitted amount of CO2 per nautical mile and per cargo capacity.Ships will receive
15、 a grade from A(good)to E(poor)on their carbon dioxide emissions annually,starting in 2023.Ships with three years of D grades or one year receiving an E grade must put a corrective action plan into place to improve its CII rating through various measures such as:Sailing speed reductionoptimization o
16、f operations and logistics implementation of energy efficiency technologies use of alternative lower carbon(blue)or zero carbon green fuelsPotential Impact Per the consultancy group BV,only 30%of the container fleet will be EEXI compliant by 2023.70%of 10K 14K TEU vessels,35%of 14K 18K TEU vessels,a
17、nd 29%of 18K+TEU vessels are currently operating at a D or E CII level.These are the main vessels used on the Asia US and Asia Europe shipping lanes.Both EEXI and CII could negatively affect shipping capacity,EEXI by requiring vessels to idle for modifications,and CII by incentivizing carriers to sl
18、ow steam as this is the easiest way to make poorly rated ships compliant.IMO 2023:What is it all about?6DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 2022UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Carriers7 Carrier profits are forecasted to reach a record USD 275 bn in 2022.Slowing demand,excess capacity and f
19、alling rates will negatively impact future carrier earnings.Carriers are implementing countermeasures to limit rate decreases by reducing capacity in many trades and announcing General Rate Increases.After several years of severe supply chain disruptions the industry is repositioning itself and seek
20、s to find a way to navigate through the new normal.ObservationsMSCCMA CGMMaerskHapag-LloydCoscoONEEvergreenHMM1002Zim630846541Yang Ming708currenton orderSource:1)Alphaliner,2)DynaLiners,3)Drewry,in USD/40ft container,including BAF&THC both ends,42 individual routes,excluding in
21、tra-Asia routesTop 10 Carriers by capacity(000 TEU)1)CARRIER OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN2)FY20184%7%57%FY2017FY2020FY20194%11%48%FY20216M20229M202258%WORLD CONTAINER INDEX(WCI)3)DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 20224,00002,0006,00012,0008,00010,000Q3Q1 21Q123Q2Q4Q122Q2Q3Q4Actual
22、ForecastUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Ocean Freight Market Outlook 20238 Depressed consumer behavior continues to impact demand at least through H1 2023.A possible economic recovery would start earliest in H2 2023.Ocean carriers are trying to limit the capacity influx in order to stabilize rate levels.The sch
23、edule reliability will increase further as no serious disruptions are to be expected.First impacts of the new IMO environmental regulations will be noticed leading to longer lead times and increased costs.Initial signs of a reshuffled carrier landscape and/or new alliances could transpire.An increas
24、ed focus on sustainable logistics will drive decision making.DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 2022UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)9 Forecast accurately Balance between short term and long term commitments Chose a partner who can offer carrier and mode flexibility Allow for sufficient le
25、ad times in case of disruptions Support electronic data exchange Consider to select sustainable logistics offerings Foster long term partnerships with your provider of choice Recommendations DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 2022UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Disclaimer10This presentati
26、on contains forward looking statements.These statements are based on managements current expectations or beliefs and are subject to several factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.Accordingly,neither DHL no
27、r any of its directors,officers,employees or advisers nor any other person makes any representation or warranty,express or implied,as to its accuracy,completeness,timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose.The opinions and estimates included herein reflect the DHLs views based on available
28、information on the dates specified and these views may have changed without notice.DHL,or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with DHL,accepts no liability for any direct,special,indirect,consequential,incidental damages,or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any
29、 use of the information herein(including any error,omission or misstatement herein,negligent or otherwise)or further communication thereof,even if DHL or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof.The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities,futures,options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services.DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Outlook 2023|16 December 2022