1、Born to Win, Schooled to Lose Why Equally Talented Students Dont Get Equal Chances to Be All They Can Be ANTHONY P. CARNEVALE MEGAN L. FASULES MICHAEL C. QUINN KATHRYN PELTIER CAMPBELL 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Reprint Permission The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce carries a

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6、 visit creativecommons.org. Email cewgeorgetowngeorgetown.edu with any questions. Anthony P. Carnevale Megan L. Fasules Michael C. Quinn Kathryn Peltier Campbell 2019 Born to Win, Schooled to Lose Why Equally Talented Students Dont Get Equal Chances to Be All They Can Be EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A ll indiv

7、iduals, regardless of where they come from or who their parents are, should have the opportunity to reach their full potential. However, many poor children, particularly those who are Black or Latino, find the gates of opportunity barredand not because they lack the talent to succeed. Throughout the

8、ir youth, relatively advantaged children enjoy protective and enriched environments that help ensure their success. Meanwhile, equally talented children from poor backgrounds are held back by material disadvantages. Stunningly, a child from the bottom quartile of socioeconomic status who has high te

9、st scores in kindergarten has only a 3 in 10 chance of having a college education and a good entry-level job as a young adult, compared to a 7 in 10 chance for a child in the top quartile of socioeconomic status who has low test scores. Among children with similarly high academic potential, the test

10、 scores of economically disadvantaged students are most likely to decline and stay low as they move through the K12 system. When students from affluent families stumble, they have a softer landing and assistance getting back on track, while those in adverse environments are more likely to land on ro

11、cky ground and never recover. These advantages and disadvantages are compounded by systemic racial and ethnic inequities. As a result, Black and Latino children are less likely than their White and Asian peers with similar test scores to achieve educational and economic success. Thus, the likelihood

12、 of success is too often determined not by a childs innate talent, but by his or her life circumstancesincluding factors that determine access to opportunity based on class, race, and ethnicity. In short, the system conspires against young people from poor families, especially those who are Black or

13、 Latino. Among these youth, even those who “make it” and earn a college degree are less likely than their more affluent peers to get a good entry-level job as a young adult. There is still reason for hope: a child who struggles can beat the odds and become a high-achieving adult. The fact that child

14、rens test scores change over time shows that there is room for intervention. We need to use education to clear the pathway to opportunity for all, regardless of background. With adequate resources, schools can influence students development of skills and abilities and, ultimately, their socioeconomi

15、c mobility. 1BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For children from poor families who start out with high test scores, the chances of keeping those high scores are relatively slim. Figure 1. As children progress through primary school, they can improve on measures of achievement, but be

16、coming and staying high-achieving is less likely for students from families in the lowest SES quartile. Students from families in the lowest SES quartile Math scores between kindergarten and 8th grade Math scores in kindergarten* Top halfBottom half Math scores in 8th grade Source: Georgetown Univer

17、sity Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten (ECLS-K) (public use data), 2006. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupa

18、tional prestige. “Math scores between kindergarten and 8th grade” reflects any change in test scores thatmight have occurred between kindergarten and first grade, third grade, or fifth grade. *Overall, 26 percent of students with families from the lowest SES quartile have top-half math scores in kin

19、dergarten. 30 31 48 21 118 13 70 69 100 100 69 131 3BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Meanwhile, children from affluent families who have top-half math scores tend to stay in the top half, and they have a safety net that keeps them from falling to the bottom if they stumble. Figure 2

20、. Children from families in the highest SES quartile are more likely to earn and maintain top-half math scores. Students from families in the highest SES quartile Math scores between kindergarten and 8th grade Math scores in kindergarten* Top halfBottom half Math scores in 8th grade Source: Georgeto

21、wn University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten (ECLS-K) (public use data), 2006. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and paren

22、ts occupational prestige. “Math scores between kindergarten and 8th grade” reflects any change in test scores thatmight have occurred between kindergarten and first grade, third grade, or fifth grade. *Overall, 74 percent of students with families from the highest SES quartile have top-half math sco

23、res in kindergarten. 74 61 117 14 52 17 26 39 100 100 131 69 5BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For Black kindergartners with math scores in the top half, staying at the top is especially difficult. Figure 3. Black kindergartners who have above-median math scores are much more likely

24、 than children of other races and ethnicities to fall behind by eighth grade. Share of kindergartners with above-median math scores who still have above-median math scores in 8th grade Above-median family SES 82% 61% 66% 37% 78% 64% 93% 82% Below-median family SES White Black/African American Hispan

25、ic/Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten (ECLS-K) (public use data), 2006. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household

26、income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. 7BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY By high school, achievement patterns begin to hold for all students. Very few tenth graders with top-quartile test scores see their scores fall by twelfth grade. Similarly, t

27、enth graders with bottom- quartile scores have difficulty improving their scores. Figure 4. Most tenth graders who score in the top or bottom quartiles remain in the same quartile in twelfth grade, regardless of SES. Share of 10th graders whose math scores remain the same in 12th grade Top-quartile

28、math scores Highest SES quartile Lowest SES quartile Lowest SES quartile Highest SES quartile 85% 75% 61% 73% Bottom-quartile math scores Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (public use data), 2012. Note: Socioecono

29、mic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. Students who dropped out of high school before the twelfth-grade assessment are included as tenth graders whose math scores do not remai

30、n the same in twelfth grade. This represents 18 percent of lowest-SES-quartile tenth graders and 7 percent of highest-SES-quartile tenth graders. 9BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Regardless of academic ability, poor tenth graders are less likely than their affluent peers to enroll

31、in college, to attend four-year institutions, and to complete collegedegrees. Figure 5. Students from families in the lowest SES quartile are far less likely than their highest-SES peers to earn a college degree by their mid-20seven when their test scores suggest that they are equally prepared. Enro

32、lled in anycollege Enrolled in four-yearcollege Completed a college degree 43% 85% 14% 46% 73% 95% 56% 84% 40% 75% 16% 46% Highest-SES-quartile 10th graders with above-median math scores Highest-SES-quartile 10th graders with below-median math scores Lowest-SES-quartile 10th graders with above-media

33、n math scores Lowest-SES-quartile 10th graders with below-median math scores Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (public use data), 2012. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends

34、on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. College degree includes associates degrees and higher. 11BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Students chances of attaining apostsecondary degree also varybyrace and ethnicity. Figure

35、6. White and Asian tenth graders are more likely than their Black or Latino peers to complete a college degree within 10 years, no matter their math scores. Share of 10th graders who completed a college degree within 10 years Above-median math scores 62% 29% 51% 23% 46% 22% 69% 39% Below-median math

36、 scores White Black/African American Hispanic/Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (public use data), 2012. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends o

37、n three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. College degree includes associates degrees and higher. 13BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Coming from a poor background does not necessarily determine a childs economic destiny. Stu

38、dents from poor backgrounds who show academic promise have higher odds of success, particularly if they maintain high math scores inhighschool. Figure 7. Tenth graders from families in the lowest SES quartile are twice as likely to have early educational and career success if they score in the top h

39、alf on math assessments in high school. Share of 10th graders with lowest-quartile family SES who have above-median SES 10 years later 23% 47% Above-median math scores Below-median math scores Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of the Education Longitudinal

40、Study of 2002 (public use data), 2012. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. Young adult SES is defined according to individual status compared to the cohort

41、group 10years after tenth grade. 15BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Across racial and ethnic groups, top-half math scores in high school increase the odds that a student from an economically disadvantaged family will earn a good entry-level job as a young adult. Figure 8. Tenth grad

42、ers with top-half math scores who are from families with below-median SES are more likely to have above-median SES 10 years later than their peers with bottom-half scores, regardless of race or ethnicity. Share of 10th graders with below-median family SES who are above-median SES 10 years later Abov

43、e-median math scores 53% 29% 48% 27% 47% 30% 65% 36% Below-median math scores White Black/African American Hispanic/Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (public use data), 2012. Note: So

44、cioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. Young adult SES is defined according to individual status compared to the cohort group 10years after tenth grade. 17BORN TO WIN,

45、 SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY However, strong math scores alone are not enough to overcome the influence of family socioeconomic status on economic mobility. Figure 9. A student from a lowest-SES family who has top-half math scores has a lower chance of early career and educational success t

46、han a student from a highest-SES family who has bottom-half scores, even if the student from the lowest SES quartile continues to have top-half math scores in tenth grade. Share of students who are above-median SES as young adults 10th graders 31% 47% 71% 56% Kindergartners Lowest family SES quartil

47、e and above-median math scores Highest family SES quartile and below-median math scores Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten (ECLS-K) (public use data), 2006, and Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (public u

48、se data), 2012. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is used to define class. Family SES depends on three factors: household income, parents educational attainment, and parents occupational prestige. Young adult SES is defined according to individual status compared to the cohort group 10years after ten

49、th grade. To connect test scores in kindergarten to SES as young adults using different data sets, we assume the likelihood of changing scores between eighth and tenth grade is equivalent to the likelihood of changing scores between tenth andtwelfth grade. 19BORN TO WIN, SCHOOLED TO LOSE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It doesnt have to be this way. Education can mitigate the effects of adverse environments. To help make this a reality, policymakers must consider several options: Expand academic interventions that sta