1、The Global Risks Report 2020 Insight Report 15th Edition In partnership with Marsh see Appendix A for the full name and description. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020. Economic Geopolitical Environmental Societal Technological Source: World Economic Forum 2007-2020

2、, Global Risks Reports. Note: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012. Some

3、global risks have been reclassified: water crises and income disparity were recategorized as societal risks in the 2015 and 2014 Global Risks Reports, respectively. Figure I: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 20072020 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood Top

4、5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact 200072000020 20007202020001720182019 EconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological Weapons of mass destruction Weapons of mass destruction Asset price collapse Fiscal crisesFinanci

5、al failureFinancial failure Climate action failure Deglobalization (developed) Climate change Water crises Water crises Extreme weather Extreme weather Oil price spikesGeopolitical conflict Food crises Water crises Water crises Chronic disease Asset price collapse Natural disasters Fiscal crises Ass

6、et price collapse Deglobalization (developed) Oil and gas price spike Chronic diseases Fiscal crises Blow up in asset prices Deglobalization (developed) China hard landing Oil price shock Pandemics Blow up in asset prices Deglobalization Interstate and civil wars Pandemics Oil price shockEnergy pric

7、e volatility Energy price volatility Weapons of mass destruction Fiscal imbalances Fiscal crises Climate action failure Infrastructure breakdown Water crises Unemployment Water crises Infectious diseases Weapons of mass destruction Interstate conflict Weapons of mass destruction Energy price shock W

8、ater crises Involuntary migration Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather Water crises Natural disasters Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather Water crises Natural disasters Fiscal imbalances Climate action failure Climate action failure Climate action failure Climate action failure Climat

9、e action failure Extreme weather Extreme weather Asset price collapse Storms and cyclones Income disparity Income disparity China economic slowdown FloodingFiscal imbalances Fiscal imbalances Natural disasters Natural disasters Biodiversity loss Biodiversity loss Human-made environmental disasters C

10、hronic disease CorruptionGreenhouse gas emissions Data fraud or theft Fiscal crisesBiodiversity lossCyberattacksWater crises CyberattacksGlobal governance gaps Climate change Water crisesPopulation ageing Income disparity Unemployment Climate action failure Cyberattacks Extreme weather Interstate co

11、nflict Failure of national governance State collapse or crisis Unemployment Extreme weather Involuntary migration Interstate conflict Natural catastrophes Extreme weather Extreme weather Natural disasters Terrorist attacks Data fraud or theft Involuntary migration Extreme weather Cyberattacks Data f

12、raud or theft Natural disasters Greenhouse gas emissions Climate action failure Climate action failure Climate action failure Climate action failure Infrastructure breakdown Oil price shock China hard landing Blow up in asset prices Chronic diseases Climate action failure Blow up in asset prices Fai

13、led and failing states Oil price shock Chronic diseases Middle East instability Asset price collapse Chronic diseases Global governance gaps Deglobalization (emerging) China economic slowdown 3.0 4.0 2.5 2.53.03.54.0 average 3.31 3.47 Failure of urban planning A As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset

14、 bubbles Deflation F Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failure C Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e f fa ai il lu ur re e Critical infrastructure failure F Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crises U Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemplo

15、yment I Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit trade E En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnergy price shock U Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflation E Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtreme weather C Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti

16、 io on n f fa ai il lu ur re e Climate action failure B Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss sBiodiversity loss N Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disasters H Hu umma an n- -mma ad de e e en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d di is sa as st te er r Human-made environm

17、ental disasters N Na at ti io on na al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e National governance failure G Gl lo ob ba al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e Global governance failure I In nt te er rs st ta at te e c co on nfl fli ic ct t Interstate conflict T Te

18、er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist attacks S St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapse WWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss s d de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on n Weapons of mass destruction F Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crises I In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi

19、ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migration S So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial instability I In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseases WWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crises A Ad dv ve er rs se e t te ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al l a

20、ad dv va an nc ce es s Adverse technological advances I In nf fo or rmma at ti io on n i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e b br re ea ak kd do ow wn n Information infrastructure breakdown C Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacks D Da at ta a f fr ra au ud d o or r t th he ef ft tData

21、fraud or theft average 3.5 Impact Likelihood The Global Risks Landscape 2020 Top 10 risks in terms of Likelihood Categories Top 10 risks in terms of Impact Extreme weather Climate action failure Natural disasters Biodiversity loss Human-made environmental disasters Data fraud or theft Cyberattacks W

22、ater crises Global governance failure Asset bubbles Climate action failure Weapons of mass destruction Biodiversity loss Extreme weather Water crises Information infrastructure breakdown Natural disasters Cyberattacks Human-made environmental disasters Infectious diseases 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3

23、4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.0 1.05.0 plotted area Economic Geopolitical Environmental Societal Technological Figure II: The Global Risks Landscape 2020 Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020. Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global ris

24、k on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assessed the impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility, the names of the global

25、risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. Likelihood 2.53.03.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Average 3.32 Average 3.47 I In nf fo or rmma at ti io on n i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e b br re ea ak kd do ow wn n Information infrastructure breakdown A As ss se et t b bu ub

26、bb bl le eAsset bubbles D De efl fla at ti io on nDeflation F Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failure C Cr ri it ti ic ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e f fa ai il lu ur re e Critical infrastructure failure F Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crises

27、U Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemployment I Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit trade E En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho oc ck kEnergy price shock U Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflation E Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtrem

28、e weather C Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti io on n f fa ai il lu ur re e Climate action failure B Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss sBiodiversity loss N Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disasters H Hu umma an n- -mma ad de e e en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d d

29、i is sa as st te er r Human-made environmental disasters N Na at ti io on na al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e National governance failure I In nt te er rs st ta at te e c co on nfl fli ic ct t Interstate conflict T Te er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist att

30、acks S St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapse WWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss s d de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on n Weapons of mass destruction F Fa ai il lu ur re e o of f u ur rb ba an n p pl la an nn ni in ng g Failure of urban planning F Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crises

31、 I In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migration S So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial instability I In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseases WWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crises A Ad dv ve er rs se e t t

32、e ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al l a ad dv va an nc ce es s Adverse technological advances C Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacks D Da at ta a f fr ra au ud d o or r t th he ef ft t Data fraud or theft G Gl lo ob ba al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e Global governa

33、nce failure Respondents Multistakeholder Shapers Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the Global Shapers as to the multi-stakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology). We received 236 responses for Part 1 “The World in 2020” a

34、nd 190 for Part 2 “Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections” was not used. The Global Shapers Community is the World Economic Forums network of young people driving dialogue, action and change. The Global Shapers Risks Landscape 2020 3.02.53.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Eco

35、nomic Unmanageable inflation Illicit trade Energy price shock Fiscal crises Unemployment Financial failure Deflation Critical infra- structure failure Asset bubbles 3.02.53.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Geopolitical Weapons of mass destruction Terrorist attacks State collapse National governance failure Intersta

36、te conflict Global governance failure Societal 3.02.53.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Water crises Social instability Involuntary migration Infectious diseases Food crises Failure of urban planning Technological 3.02.53.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Information infrastructure breakdown Data fraud or theft Cyberattacks Adverse

37、 technological advances Likelihood Impact Likelihood Impact Likelihood Impact 3.02.53.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Environmental Human-made environmental disasters Natural disasters Extreme weather Biodiversity loss Climate action failure Figure III: The Global Shapers Risk Landscape 2020 Source: World Economic

38、 Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020. The Global Shapers Community is the World Economic Forums network of young people driving dialogue, action and change. Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the Global Shapers as to the multistakeholder sample (see Ap

39、pendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology). We received 236 responses for Part 1 “The World in 2020” and 190 for Part 2 “Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections” were not used. Likelihood 2.53.03.54.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 Average 3.32 Average 3.47 I In nf

40、 fo or rmma at ti io on n i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e b br re ea ak kd do ow wn n Information infrastructure breakdown A As ss se et t b bu ub bb bl le eAsset bubbles D De efl fla at ti io on nDeflation F Fi in na an nc ci ia al l f fa ai il lu ur re eFinancial failure C Cr ri it ti i

41、c ca al l i in nf fr ra as st tr ru uc ct tu ur re e f fa ai il lu ur re e Critical infrastructure failure F Fi is sc ca al l c cr ri is se es sFiscal crises U Un ne emmp pl lo oy ymme en nt tUnemployment I Il ll li ic ci it t t tr ra ad de eIllicit trade E En ne er rg gy y p pr ri ic ce e s sh ho o

42、c ck kEnergy price shock U Un nmma an na ag ge ea ab bl le e i in nfl fla at ti io on nUnmanageable inflation E Ex xt tr re emme e w we ea at th he er rExtreme weather C Cl li imma at te e a ac ct ti io on n f fa ai il lu ur re e Climate action failure B Bi io od di iv ve er rs si it ty y l lo os ss

43、 sBiodiversity loss N Na at tu ur ra al l d di is sa as st te er rs sNatural disasters H Hu umma an n- -mma ad de e e en nv vi ir ro on nmme en nt ta al l d di is sa as st te er r Human-made environmental disasters N Na at ti io on na al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e Nationa

44、l governance failure I In nt te er rs st ta at te e c co on nfl fli ic ct t Interstate conflict T Te er rr ro or ri is st t a at tt ta ac ck ks sTerrorist attacks S St ta at te e c co ol ll la ap ps se eState collapse WWe ea ap po on ns s o of f mma as ss s d de es st tr ru uc ct ti io on n Weapons

45、of mass destruction F Fa ai il lu ur re e o of f u ur rb ba an n p pl la an nn ni in ng g Failure of urban planning F Fo oo od d c cr ri is se es sFood crises I In nv vo ol lu un nt ta ar ry y mmi ig gr ra at ti io on nInvoluntary migration S So oc ci ia al l i in ns st ta ab bi il li it ty ySocial

46、instability I In nf fe ec ct ti io ou us s d di is se ea as se es sInfectious diseases WWa at te er r c cr ri is se es sWater crises A Ad dv ve er rs se e t te ec ch hn no ol lo og gi ic ca al l a ad dv va an nc ce es s Adverse technological advances C Cy yb be er ra at tt ta ac ck ks sCyberattacks

47、D Da at ta a f fr ra au ud d o or r t th he ef ft t Data fraud or theft G Gl lo ob ba al l g go ov ve er rn na an nc ce e f fa ai il lu ur re e Global governance failure Number and strength of connections (“weighted degree”) Economic Risks Geopolitical Risks Environmental Risks Societal Risks Techno

48、logical Risks Figure IV: The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2020 Note: Survey respondents were asked to select up to six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected. See Appendix B of the full report for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbrev

49、iated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 20192020. The Global Risks Report 2020 15th Edition Strategic Partners Marsh three of the top five risks by impact are also environmental (see Figure I, The Evolving Risks Landscape 20072020). “Failure of climate change mitigation and adaption” is the number one risk by impact and number two by likelihood over the next 10 years, according to our survey. Members of the Global Shapers Communitythe Forums younger constituentsshow even more concern,