1、EEA Report XX/2023EEA Report 01/2024European climate risk assessmentExecutive summaryEuropean Environment AgencyKongens Nytorv 61050 Copenhagen KDenmarkTel.:+45 33 36 71 00Web:eea.europa.euEnquiries:eea.europa.eu/enquiriesCover design:EEACover photo:Antnio Tedim,Well with Nature/EEALayout:EEALegal n

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4、eptions to this approach will be clarified in the context of their use.Copyright notice European Environment Agency,2024This publication is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International(CC BY 4.0)licence(https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0).This means that it may be re-used

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7、800/2042493European climate risk assessment Executive summaryExecutive summaryThis assessment identifies 36 climate risks with potentially severe consequences across Europe.The risks are evaluated in the contexts of risk severity,policy horizon(lead time and decision horizon),policy readiness and ri

8、sk ownership.It further identifies priorities for EU policy action,based on a structured risk assessment united with qualitative aspects,such as considering social justice.Key takeaways Human-induced climate change is affecting the planet;globally,2023was the warmest year on record,and the average g

9、lobal temperature in the 12-month period between February 2023 and January 2024 exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5C.Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world.Extreme heat,once relatively rare,is becoming more frequent while precipitation patterns are changing.Downpours and other precip

10、itation extremes are increasing in severity,and recent years have seen catastrophic floods in various regions.At the same time,southern Europe can expect considerable declines in overall rainfall and more severedroughts.These events,combined with environmental and social risk drivers,pose major chal

11、lenges throughout Europe.Specifically,they compromise food and water security,energy security and financial stability,and the health of the general population and of outdoor workers;in turn,this affects social cohesion and stability.In tandem,climate change is impacting terrestrial,freshwater and ma

12、rineecosystems.Climate change is a risk multiplier that can exacerbate existing risks and crises.Climate risks can cascade from one system or region to another,including from the outside world to Europe.Cascading climate risks can lead to system-wide challenges affecting whole societies,with vulnera

13、ble social groups particularly affected.Examples include mega-droughts leading to water and food insecurity,disruptions of critical infrastructure,and threats to financial markets and stability.When applying the scales of severity used in the European climate risk assessment,several climate risks ha

14、ve already reached critical levels.If decisive action is not taken now,most climate risks identified could reach critical or catastrophic levels by the end of this century.Hundreds of thousands of people would die from heatwaves,and economic losses from coastal floods alone could exceed EUR 1 trilli

15、on per year.4European climate risk assessment Executive summary Climate risks to ecosystems,people and the economy depend on non-climatic risk drivers as much as on the climate-related hazards themselves.Effective policies and action at European and national levels can therefore help reduce these ri

16、sks to a very significant degree.The extent to which we can avoid damages will largely depend on how quickly we can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions,and how fast and effectively we can prepare our societies and adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change.The EU and its Member States hav

17、e made considerable progress in understanding the climate risks they are facing and preparing for them.National climate risk assessments are increasingly used to inform adaptation policy development.However,societal preparedness is still low,as policy implementation is lagging substantially behind q

18、uickly-increasing risk levels.Most of the climate risks are co-owned by the EU and its Member States;therefore,coordinated and urgent additional action is required at all governance levels.Most policies and actions to strengthen Europes resilience to climate change are made for the long term,and som

19、e actions have long lead times.Urgent action is needed now to prevent rigid choices that are not fit for the future in a changing climate,such as in land-use planning and long-lived infrastructure.We must prevent locking ourselves into maladaptive pathways and avoid potentially catastrophic risks.Ad

20、aptation policies can both support and conflict with other environmental,social and economic policy objectives.Thus,an integrated policy approach considering multiple policy objectives is essential for ensuring efficient adaptation.5European climate risk assessment Executive summaryOverarching findi

21、ngs of this reportFigure ES.1 Observed and projected trends in key climatic risk drivers in different European regions5040NoteOther heatwaveindices showan increasefor the past(*)LegendIncreaseDecreaseIncrease(limited agreementbetween models,datasets or indices)Decrease(limited agreementbetween model

22、s,datasets or indices)No changeLow confidencein direction of changeMean temperatureHeatwave daysSea surfacetemperatureSea levelTotal precipitationHeavy precipitationDroughtPastFutureLow HighPastFutureLow HighPastFutureLow HighPastFutureLow HighPastFuture(*)Central-easternEuropeNorthernEurope Land re

23、gionsWesternEuropeSouthernEuropeEuropeanregionalseasNotes:Underlying climate variables are:heatwaves(days with maximum temperatures above 35C),heavy precipitation(maximum 1-day precipitation),and drought(using a standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index over 6 months(SPEI-6,Hargreaves meth

24、od).Time periods and scenarios are past(1952-2021);future until the end of the century(2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014);low scenario(SSP1-2.6);and high scenario(SSP3-7.0).Source:Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S).Europes climate is changing rapidlyHuman activities have led to unprecedented globa

25、l warming.The average global temperature in the 12-month period between February 2023 and January 2024 exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5C.2023 was the warmest year on record over more than 100,000 years globally,at 1.48C above pre-industrial levels,with the worlds ocean temperature also reaching

26、 new heights.Europe is the fastest-warming continent;since the 1980s,warming on the continent was about twice the global rate.Recent years have seen many long-time climate records broken in Europe.Europe is also facing more and stronger climate hazards,including heatwaves and prolonged droughts,heav

27、y precipitation leading to pluvial and fluvial floods,and sea level rise leading to coastal floods(see Figure ES.1).6European climate risk assessment Executive summaryFigure ES.2 Observed and projected temperature increase over European land areaNotes:Temperatures are expressed relative to pre-indus

28、trial levels.The model projections show the mean and uncertainty interval.The two scenarios assessed are SSP1-2.6:low warming,and SSP3-7.0:high warming.Source:Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S).0020040205020602070208020-135879CERA5(observations)Histo

29、rical(modelled past)SSP5-8.5(very high emissions)SSP2-4.5(medium emissions)SSP3-7.0(high emissions)SSP1-2.6(low emissions)Most climate hazards in Europe will further increase during the 21st century,even under optimistic scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement,but the magnitude and pace of cha

30、nge depend on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions(see Figure ES.2).A pessimistic scenario without additional policy action suggests that economic damages related to coastal floods alone might exceed EUR 1 trillion per year by the end of the century in the EU.The climate risks Europe is

31、 facing are driven not only by increases in climate hazards,but also by how prepared societies are for them.Figure ES.1 only shows the general direction of travel.Climate adaptation policies need to consider a wider range of plausible scenarios for those risk drivers that they cannot directly influe

32、nce,including plausible low probability events with high impacts(wildcards),compounding hazards occurring at the same time or after each other,and risk cascades that stretch across national borders or sector boundaries.Extreme heat is becoming increasingly common,exposing a large share of the popula

33、tion to heat stress,particularly in southern and western Europe.The record-hot summer of 2022 has been linked to between 60,000 and 70,000 premature deaths in Europe,despite considerable investments in heat-health action plans.Warmer temperatures also facilitate the northward movement of disease vec

34、tors and their spread to higher elevations.Southern Europe is now warm enough for mosquitoes to transmit formerly tropical diseases.7European climate risk assessment Executive summaryHeatwaves and prolonged droughts are growing with climate change.This can lead to acute crises,such as widespread wil

35、dfires,critical infrastructure failures,blackouts,and major health and economic impacts.Europe faces a growing risk of megadroughts that span large regions and last for several years,and that are even more severe than recent drought events in Europe.Prolonged droughts cause large economic damage acr

36、oss many sectors and can severely degrade the water resources that people,agriculture,industry,power plants,river transport and ecosystems depend on.Extreme precipitation has increased in large parts of Europe,leading to growing flood risks and devastating floods in recent years.This trend is expect

37、ed to rise further in awarming climate.Sea level in Europe is rising higher every year at an accelerating pace.Rising sea levels increase the risk of coastal floods and storm surges,coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion into groundwater.This presents an important threat to many coastal cities,regi

38、ons and ecosystems in Europe.Sea level will continue to rise forcenturies or even millennia after global temperatures have stabilised.Various extreme climate events in recent years have severely impacted ecosystems,populations and the economy in Europe.All of these events are consistent with a chang

39、ing climate,and attribution studies have shown that some of them become more likely and/or severe as a result of human-caused climate change.These events have also demonstrated how the impacts of a single event can cascade to multiple systems and sectors,thus affecting several policy areas simultane

40、ously.These connections can lead to risk cascades where a risk originating in one system istransmitted to others(Box ES.1).Box ES.1 Examples of extreme climate events in 2021,2022 and 2023 with severe societal consequences Extreme precipitation and large-scale floods took place in Germany and Belgiu

41、m in2021(EUR 44 billion damage and more than 200 deaths),Slovenia in 2023(damage estimated at around 16%of national GDP),and Greece in 2023(submerging its breadbasket region).These events caused severe,direct impacts on settlements,infrastructure,agriculture and human health.They also led to wider e

42、conomic impacts in the affected regions and major fiscal challenges at national levels,and stretched the limits of the existing EU Solidarity Fund.Extreme heat in combination with prolonged drought,such as the record drought in2022,have caused severe,direct impacts on ecosystems,forestry,agriculture

43、,water supply and human health.More indirect impacts affected energy security,transport services,tourism and the wider economy.Large wildfires are facilitated by extreme heat in combination with prolonged drought,even though humans play the dominant role in their ignition.Extreme wildfires in 2022 a

44、nd again in 2023 have had severe,direct impacts on ecosystems,carbon storage and human settlements.They also led to wider impacts on human health,critical infrastructure,tourism and the economy in the affected regions.8European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate change is a risk multip

45、lier that can exacerbate existing risks and crisesClimate-related hazards(e.g.heatwaves,prolonged droughts and floods)in interaction with non-climatic risk drivers(e.g.ecosystem fragmentation,pollution,unsustainable agricultural practices and water management,land use and settlement patterns,and soc

46、ial inequalities)threaten Europes food security,public health,ecosystems,infrastructure and economy.Climate impacts can cascade from one system or region to another,including from the outside world to Europe and from Europe to the outside world.Cascading climate risks can lead to system-wide challen

47、ges affecting whole societies,with vulnerable social groups particularly implicated.Climate risks in Europe and the climate-sensitive systems where they manifest are closely connected(see Figure ES.3).These connections can lead to risk cascades where a risk originating in one system is transmitted t

48、o others.Examples of risk cascades include:Food.Climate impacts on food production(particularly in southern Europe)can cascade to rural and coastal livelihoods,land use,the health of socially vulnerable populations,and the wider economy.Health.Climate impacts on human health and well-being,including

49、 those of workers,can affect labour productivity and resource needs of the health system,and thus the wider economy.Ecosystems.Climate impacts on terrestrial,freshwater and marine ecosystems can cascade to food production and security,human and animal health,infrastructure,land use and the wider eco

50、nomy.Infrastructure.Climate impacts on critical infrastructure,such as energy,water or transport infrastructure,can affect nearly all aspects of society,from human health to the wider economy and the financial system.Infrastructure assets and networks are often interconnected,so a failure at one poi

51、nt in the network can also cascade to other regions and countries.Economy and finance.Many climate impacts can affect the economy and the financial system,from where they can cascade further to other policy areas that may be deprived of financial resources.Awareness of risk cascades is crucial for r

52、educing climate risks because it offers different possible targets for risk reduction strategies.It is often more efficient to address a risk at the beginning of the cascade than where the impacts are felt most strongly.Comprehensive adaptation policies need to prevent the deterioration of the found

53、ation of basic human needs(such as ecosystems,food and health)while promoting the resilience of human systems and activities(such as infrastructure,economy and finance).Adaptation policies also need to consider pre-existing inequalities and the disproportionate burden on vulnerable groups most affec

54、ted by the lack of essential services.9European climate risk assessment Executive summaryFigure ES.3 Links between risk drivers and the clusters of climate risks assessedNote:The figure illustrates the interconnections and risk transmission pathways from key climate-related hazards and selected non-

55、climatic risk drivers(on top)via the main climate impacts for five clusters of interrelated risks and the cross-cutting field Water.Source:EEA.Direct impacts and risks and Cascading impacts and risksClimate-related hazardsNon-climatic risk driversEconomy and financeInfrastructureFoodHealthEcosystems

56、WaterRisk clusterCross-cutting field 10European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate risks are determined by the interaction of climate-related hazards withnon-climatic risk drivers The risks associated with climate hazards also depend on non-climatic risk drivers as much as on the clima

57、te hazards themselves.For example,unsustainable land use and water management,biodiversity loss,eutrophication and pollution increase ecosystems vulnerability to climate hazards.Well-maintained infrastructure with built-in redundance is less likely to fail during an extreme event than ageing infrast

58、ructure that was already at its limit under past climate conditions.Strong health services with robust heat-health action plans are less likely to be overwhelmed during a heatwave or climate-related infectious disease outbreak than health services that are struggling on an everyday basis.And communi

59、ties with significant flood insurance are in a better position to recover and build back better after a severe flood than those without external support.Consideration of non-climatic risk drivers is thus essential for understanding climate risks,as well as for reducing them in a just manner.Some non

60、-climatic risk drivers can influence the severity of many climate risks whereas others are relevant for specific risks only.Non-climatic risk drivers are numerous and are highly variable across Europe,which makes them difficult to address in broad,Europe-wide scenarios.The European climate risk asse

61、ssment(EUCRA)identifies those environmental,social and economic conditions that are most relevant for specific climate risks,including those that require consideration in the development of effective and just adaptation policies.Major climate risks for Europe and the urgency to actEUCRA has followed

62、 a systematic risk assessment process to identify and analyse major climate risks for Europe,and to determine the urgency to act.The assessment process comprises an analysis of risk severity over time and an indicative policy analysis.Further information is available in the concludingsection.The sys

63、tematic risk assessment process has identified and assessed 36 major climate risks for Europe,grouped into five broad clusters:ecosystems,food,health,infrastructure,and economy and finance(see Figure ES.4).Depending on their nature,each of these risks alone has the potential to cause significant env

64、ironmental degradation,economic damage,social emergencies and political turbulences;their combined effects are even more impactful.The selection was based on a comprehensive review of the literature and the evidence related to climate impacts and risks in Europe;it considered the potential of variou

65、s climate risks to put Europe into crisis.Almost all of the selected major risks can reach critical or even catastrophic levels during this century.In addition,the assessment identified three major climate risks specific to the EU outermost regions.More than half(21 out of the 36)major climate risks

66、 for Europe identified in this report need more action now,with eight of them being particularly urgent.Urgent action is needed for risks from all policy clusters,indicating that policies need to increase in ambition,scope and implementation.A third of these risks need further investigation,includin

67、g more research,better monitoring or a review of the policy framework.Southern Europe,low-lying coastal regions and EU outermost regions are hotspot regions for climate risks.Southern Europe is particularly affected by heat and prolonged drought.Three out of the eight risks in the highest urgency ca

68、tegory are evaluated with this high urgency score because of their high severity in southern 11European climate risk assessment Executive summaryEurope.In contrast,none of the other three sub-continental regions stand out as hotspots for climate risks in Figure ES.4.Low-lying,coastal regions are als

69、o hotspots because some risks with high severity and urgency are concentrated there.Finally,EU outermost regions are hotspots based on a separate risk assessment outlinedbelow.Many climate risks are characterised by long policy horizons,meaning that risk levels projected for the second half of this

70、century are relevant to current adaptation decisions.Long policy horizons can be caused by long lead times for planning and implementing effective adaptation actions,such as in the case of complex coastal protection infrastructure.They can also be related tolong decision horizons:current decisions c

71、an create lock-ins with long-term implications,such as for infrastructure built or forests planted today.In the case of long lead times or decision horizons,even climate risks that are not currently at critical levels could require urgent action to prevent very severe impacts inthefuture.Regional as

72、pects and geographical hotspotsClimate risks differ substantially within and across regions,sectors and vulnerable groups.The risks depend on their exposure to climate hazards,and the environmental and socio-economic conditions determining their vulnerability to these hazards.Southern Europe,low-lyi

73、ng coastal regions and EU outermost regions are hotspots for multiple climate risks.Southern Europe is particularly at risk from the increasing impacts of heat and droughts on agricultural production,outdoor work,summer tourism and fire.Within southern Europe,rural areas and local economies dependen

74、t on ecosystem services are particularly at risk;Low-lying coastal regions,including many densely-populated cities,are at risk from flooding,erosion and saltwater intrusion aggravated by sea level rise;EU outermost regions face particular risks as a result of their remote location,weaker infrastruct

75、ure,limited economic diversification and,for some of them,strong reliance on a few economic activities.Specific climate risks may have hotspots in regions beyond the ones highlighted here.Regional and local economies that are dependent on tourism,agriculture,fisheries and forestry are especially sen

76、sitive to climatic changes.This includes the Alps and other mountain regions,coastal regions and islands in the Mediterranean,aswell as large regions in northern Europe.Regions characterised by high levels of unemployment,poverty,emigration and ageing populations have a lower capacity to adapt to th

77、e impacts of climate change.Within Europe,such regions are concentrated in central-eastern Europe and parts ofsouthern Europe.Densely-populated,urban areas are at particular risk from heatwaves and extreme precipitation.The urban heat island effect can amplify the effects of heatwaves,particularly a

78、t night.High amounts of soil sealing and limited green and blue spaces in the city increase the risk of flooding,especially during cloudbursts.12European climate risk assessment Executive summaryFigure ES.4 Major climate risks for Europe and the urgency to act on themNotes:Urgency to act for 36 majo

79、r climate risks for Europe,grouped into five risk clusters.Six risks are assessed both at the pan-European level and for southern Europe,which is a hotspot region.The widths of the segments(pies)indicates the number of risks per cluster belonging to different urgency categories.Risk names are shorte

80、ned in comparison to the main report.Source:EEA.13European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate risks for Ecosystems cluster Risk severityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarming scenario)Coastal ecosystems

81、Marine ecosystemsBiodiversity/carbon sinks due to wildfires(hotspot region:southern Europe)Biodiversity/carbon sinks due to wildfiresBiodiversity/carbon sinks due to droughts and pestsSpecies distribution shifts(*)Ecosystems/society due to invasive speciesAquatic and wetland ecosystemsSoil health(*)

82、Cascading impacts from forest disturbances+MediumMediumMediumMediumLongMediumMediumMediumMediumLongMediumCo-ownedMediumEUMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-owned(*)Wide range of evaluations by authors and risk reviewers.Urgency

83、to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching briefRisk severityCatastrophicCriticalSubstantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Major climate risks and policy priorities for the ecosystems clusterEcosystems is the policy cluster w

84、ith the highest number of risks in the categories urgent action needed or more action needed(see Table ES.1).This is relevant for many other policy areas as well because climate risks to ecosystems can often cascade to other societal systems.Risks to marine and coastal ecosystems are particularly se

85、vere due to an interplay of climatic and non-climatic impact drivers.Major climate risks and policypriorities by risk clusterClimate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation in Europe.Among climate risks related to ecosystems,risks to coastal and marine ecosys

86、tems are the most severe in the current period and entail the highest urgency to act.The functioning of marine ecosystems is threatened by the combined effects of climate-related drivers(e.g.marine heatwaves,acidification and oxygen depletion)and other anthropogenic drivers(e.g.pollution and eutroph

87、ication,fishing and the adverse impacts of maritime activities).This can result in substantial biodiversity loss,including mass mortality events,and declines in ecosystem services.Table ES.1 Assessment of major risks Ecosystems cluster 14European climate risk assessment Executive summary Coastal eco

88、systems are additionally affected by erosion,flooding and permanent inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise,storm surges and embankment due to coastal infrastructure.This creates critical risks and adaptation needs for the ecosystems themselves,as well as for communities living in c

89、oastal areas.Additional climate impacts,such as the deepening of the mixed ocean layer,species migration and the immigration of non-indigenous species are affecting food webs.This can lead to a substantial reduction in marine primary production.Eutrophication,caused by nutrient pollution and exacerb

90、ated by climatic drivers,increases harmful algal blooms and pathogens in coastal waters,creating a moderate to high risk for human health.This combination of factors is also driving the expansion of oxygen-depleted dead zones,in particular in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea.All of Europes seas are stro

91、ngly affected by these climate risks and anthropogenic pressures.There are significant gaps in our knowledge about how ecological systems respond to the interactions between different factors,and the subsequent cascading effects within and beyond ecosystems.Droughts and pollution impacting water-tab

92、le levels in aquifers have a cascading effect on both aquatic and terrestrial dependent ecosystems.Most risks related to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are currently substantial,with the potential to reach critical levels around mid-century and catastrophic levels later in the century under a

93、 high warming scenario.The urgency to act is generally assessed as more action needed.The major climate-related hazards to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems include longer and more severe droughts,warming,changes in rainfall patterns and increased wildfires.These hazards,in combination with unsu

94、stainable management choices and practices,may drive changes in species composition due to shifts in suitable habitats,forest mortality,altered soil health,and increased invasive alien species and insect outbreaks.In southern Europe,risks related to wildfires are already rated as critical,which lead

95、s to the urgency rating urgent action needed.Many aquatic and wetland ecosystems are already severely degraded from unsustainable land use and water management,and industrial activities;climate change is further aggravating the situation.These ecosystems require particular attention,not least becaus

96、e risks to them can easily cascade to other ecosystems and humans.Eutrophication from agricultural fertilisers and livestock is an important stressor in some hotspots for freshwater,coastal and marine ecosystems,particularly in closed seas.The effects of eutrophication can interact with warming wate

97、rs and result in toxic algal blooms or oxygen-depleted dead zones.Pollution from industrial activities,including mining,is an important stressor for many freshwater ecosystems.The effects of pollution are magnified during climate-induced low flow events.This combination of stressors can lead to ecos

98、ystem collapse,such as in the Oder River ecological disaster in 2022.15European climate risk assessment Executive summaryEuropes forests are strongly affected by climate change,which can exacerbate forest fires,droughts,windthrows,and pests and diseases.At the same time,healthy forests can play an i

99、mportant role in mitigating climate change and itsconsequences.Europes forests provide vital ecosystem services,including carbon sequestration and storage.It is estimated that in 2021,they removed 281 million tonnes ofCO2 equivalent(Mt CO2e)from the atmosphere across the EU;about 7%oftotal emissions

100、.However,the forest carbon sink has decreased over the last 10 years,mainly due to climate-related forest disturbances and related salvage timberharvesting.Climate change is exacerbating forest disturbances,including major wildfires,storms,droughts and insect outbreaks that have caused widespread tr

101、ee mortality in several European countries.These impacts have reduced the carbon sinks and even turned some forest areas into sources of CO2 while negatively affecting biodiversity,water regulation and other ecosystem services.Forest disturbances are expected to increase with further warming,thereby

102、 reducing carbon sequestration and increasing emissions from forest land.This could compromise the desired increase of net carbon removals in the land use,land use change and forestry sector(i.e.310 Mt CO2e/year by 2030,which is a part of the EUs climate change commitments).Greenhouse gas emissions

103、would have to be reduced even faster to compensate for the reduced land carbon sink.There is considerable variation in climate risks to ecosystems across European regions,habitats and species.Ecosystems in the alpine and far northern regions are particularly vulnerable because of limited migration o

104、pportunities,whereas southern regions are particularly at risk from exacerbated water scarcity and heat stress.Forests,freshwater and coastal habitats,wetlands and peatlands are among the habitats most at risk from climate change.Amphibians,birds,bats and molluscs are among the species groups that h

105、ave been reported to be negatively affected by rising temperatures and changes in precipitation,but many more will be affected in the future.Risk cascadesEcosystems provide multiple services to humans and society.Therefore,risks toterrestrial,freshwater,marine and coastal ecosystems have high potent

106、ial to cascade to other sectors and policy areas.These include food security,water security andhuman health.Risks to coastal ecosystems can cascade to coastal infrastructure and settlements.This is due to their important role in flood prevention and protection against coastalerosion.Ecosystems can a

107、lso play an important role in climate change mitigation and adaptation through nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation.16European climate risk assessment Executive summaryPolicies and priorities for actionsMany EU policies are in place to address risks to ecosystems.However,these polic

108、ies need better coherence considering the multiple services ecosystems provide.Policy implementation should be improved and the response to major climate risks strengthened.The EU and its Member States should implement existing policies to maintain and restore the resilience of ecosystems,particular

109、ly by strengthening protection and minimising anthropogenic pressures.This applies especially tomarine and coastal ecosystems.Afforestation and forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change.At the same time,these measures can provide a range of complementary benefits in terms

110、of climate change adaptation,biodiversity conservation and other ecosystems services.Afforestation and forest restoration need to consider future climate conditions to ensure that newly planted or regenerated forests remain in a suitable habitat during their long lifetime.Furthermore,trade-offs betw

111、een different forest and land uses over time need to be carefully considered.Europes climate change strategies should prioritise emission reductions without over-reliance on forest carbon sinks.Forest-based mitigation should only play a complementary role in bridging the transition to a low-carbon e

112、conomy and offsetting remaining emissions while providing other co-benefits.Guidance to Member States for protecting ecosystems in a changing climate needs to be strengthened,with a focus on meeting concrete and operational targets.To that effect,ecosystems will benefit from Member States implementi

113、ng the EU Nature Restoration Law,which requires measures to restore them.Guidance is also needed on spatial planning and soil health.Special attention must be paid to the implementation and restoration of protected area networks within and outside Natura2000,increasing ecosystem connectivity and rei

114、ntroducing green-blue corridors in cities and agricultural landscapes.Member States should strengthen maritime spatial planning and implement coastal management plans with a focus on protecting essential coastal ecosystems under climate change.Reducing pollution from agricultural and industrial acti

115、vities should be a priority for protecting Europes ecosystems under climate change.17European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate risks for Food cluster Risk severityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarmin

116、g scenario)Crop production(hotspot region:southern Europe)Crop productionFood security due to climate impacts outside Europe(*)Food security due to higher food pricesFisheries and aquacultureLivestock production+ShortShortShortShortShortShortMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumMediumEUCo-ownedMediumCo

117、-ownedMediumCo-owned(*)Wide range of evaluations by authors and risk reviewers.Urgency to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching briefRisk severityCatastrophicCriticalSubstantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Table ES.2 Asse

118、ssment of major risks Major climate risks and policy priorities for the food clusterRisks to crop production are the most urgent in the cluster Food,with risk severity already at a critical level in southern Europe(see Table ES.2).Further climate impacts on food production within and outside Europe

119、can create critical risks for food security within the continent by mid-century.Europe faces multiple challenges to food production and food security,including a necessity to reduce its environmental footprint.Crop production is already facing substantial climate risks in Europe as a whole,and criti

120、cal risk levels in southernEurope.Crop failures and reduced yields already pose a critical risk in southern Europe during years of prolonged drought and excessive heat.The specific regional situation is determined by the frequency of droughts,hydrological conditions and the status of irrigation infr

121、astructure where available.Megadroughts pose a significant threat,potentially affecting large areas for prolonged periods.They negatively impact crop production,food security,drinking water supplies and energy production.Food production can also be impaired by specific meteorological events,such as

122、late frosts and heavy rain,as well as current and new pests and diseases potentially facilitated by climate change.It is difficult to assess the overall risk levels due to the wide variety of regional conditions.Food security in Europe is determined not only by food production in Europe,but also by

123、production abroad and the overall socio-economic situation.Production and supply chain risks from outside Europe are expected to grow rapidly because of even higher climate impacts in many non-European production regions and increasing demand from a growing global population.Food cluster 18European

124、climate risk assessment Executive summaryRisk cascadesRisks to ecosystems and international supply chains can cascade into risks tofood security.Healthy soils,rivers,lakes and seas are critical natural resources for food production.Climate-related hazards,such as warming and changing water flows,com

125、bined with non-climatic risk drivers,such as increased competition over scarcer water resources,can compromise food production and security.Climate-related disruptions to food supply chains can lead to shortages and price volatility of food and feed products in Europe.This ultimately threatens nutri

126、tious food affordability for parts of the European population,in particular low-income households.The risks to food production have strong potential to impact the interconnected systems upon which food production itself depends as well as basic humanneeds.If crop yields are reduced under climate cha

127、nge,efforts to maintain overall production levels can further increase pressures on biodiversity,water resources,soil and ecosystems.This can create new risks to water security and quality,ecosystems and marine environments.Risks to food security,including access to nutritious food,can cascade furth

128、er to human health and social equity.Policies and priorities for actionAddressing climate risks to food production and security requires many policy levers.These include adapting and transforming food production systems,influencing demand and improving access to nutritious foods for all populationgr

129、oups.Increased efforts are urgently needed to manage the risk of prolonged drought,including in the common agricultural policy(CAP)strategic plans of the Member States.This could look like supporting drought-resilient crops or varieties and favouring less water-intensive crops.An analysis of the cur

130、rent CAP strategic plans indicates considerable room for further improvement.There is a need to raise awareness of risks to food production that is water-intensive or depends heavily on imported fodder.More resources must be allocated to risk management and decision support tools,and measures tomini

131、mise risks to drought-sensitive crops should be promoted.The development and application of sustainable and transformative agricultural practices that also enhance ecosystem resilience should be supported at all policylevels.Such measures promote food security while strengthening ecosystem resilienc

132、e,such as by improving soil quality and health,enhancing water retention and limiting soil erosion.Diversifying agricultural approaches and promoting sustainable agricultural models,such as regenerative agriculture,are crucial for increasing adaptive capacity and coping with climate extremes.19Europ

133、ean climate risk assessment Executive summaryThe consistency and coherence of key EU policies affecting food production and security needs to be improved.The key EU policies related to food production,the CAP and the common fisheries policy(CFP),do not address climate risks and adaptation needs adeq

134、uately.Mainstreaming and clarifying the options available to Member States under the CAP,as well as further integrating risks to aquaculture and fisheries into the CFP,are essential for comprehensive policy development.The transition to more climate-resilient and sustainable food systems in Europe r

135、equires actions at many levels,from farms to national and EU policies.EU policy and governance has a critical role to play to support and accelerate this transition,such as by better coordinating actions at territorial level.Production changes,dietary shifts and targeted social policies are further

136、levers to ensure food security in a changing climate.A partial shift from animal-based to plant-based food,as foreseen under the Farm to Fork Strategy and in line with international dietary guidelines,can reduce freshwater consumption for food production,as well as dependency from feed sourced outsi

137、de Europe.Such a shift towards more sustainable and healthier dietary patterns can be supported using policies targeting both supply and demand.Social policies should ensure access to nutritious diets and affordability,also for disadvantaged groups.20European climate risk assessment Executive summar

138、yClimate risks for Health cluster Risk severityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarming scenario)Heat stress general populationPopulation/built environment due to wildfires(hotspot region:southern Europe)Population/bui

139、lt environment due to wildfiresWell-being due to non-adapted buildings(*)Heat stress outdoor workers (hotspot region:southern Europe)Heat stress outdoor workersPathogens in coastal watersHealth systems and infrastructureInfectious diseases+MediumMediumMediumMediumLongLongShortShortShortAdvancedMediu

140、mCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumNationalMediumNationalCo-owned(*)Urgency based on high warming scenario(late century).Urgency to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching briefRis

141、k severityCatastrophicCriticalSubstantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Table ES.3 Assessment of major risks Major climate risks and policy priorities for the health clusterHealth is impacted in many ways by climate change,both at the individual level andthrough systemic risks to the health sys

142、tem.Heat is the largest and most urgent climate hazard for human health,affecting different population groups in different ways.More and urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from heat indoors and outdoors as well as from wildfires(see Table ES.3).At the same time,we should better prepare t

143、o counter outbreaks of vector-and water-borne diseases associated with extreme weather conditions.Climate change poses major risks to human health systems;risks related to heat are already at critical levels in southern Europe.Europe is experiencing more frequent and more intense heatwaves.This warm

144、ing,as well as its more potent effects on ageing groups,exposes a larger part of the population to heat stress,especially in southern and western-central Europe.In the summer of 2022,between 60,000 and 70,000 premature deaths in Europe were attributed to heat.Heat risks to the general population are

145、 already at critical levels in southern Europe.Different population groups are exposed to and affected differently by hot temperatures indoors and outdoors.These differences need to be considered inadaptation policies.Health cluster 21European climate risk assessment Executive summaryWildfires are a

146、ssociated with multiple risks to human health,which are already atcritical levels in southern Europe.Wildfires can destroy peoples homes as well as infrastructure that is crucial fortheir health and wellbeing.The smoke associated with wildfires is a major health threat,which can affect populations f

147、ar away from the actual fire.Accidental burn injuries could happen,leading to a long recovery and adding an additional burden for local hospitals.Firefighters and other rescue service workers may be subject to additional risks at work when combatting wildfires.Urgent action is needed to reduce wildf

148、ire risks to human populations,particularly in southern Europe.Climate change can increase risks from infectious and water-borne diseases.Hotter summers,milder winters,and more frequent floods and prolonged droughts are creating favourable conditions for the spread of several infectious diseases.The

149、se include vector-borne diseases,such as West Nile virus and tick-borne infections,and water-and food-borne infections such as those from campylobacter and salmonella.Warmer temperatures have facilitated the northward movement of disease vectors and their spread to higher elevations.Southern Europe

150、is now warm enough for mosquitoes to transmit formerly tropical diseases,including dengue and chikungunya,and several outbreaks have occurred in recent years.Tick-borne diseases,more prevalent in northern and central Europe,are also moving northwards as climate change favours tick survival and devel

151、opment in the northern distribution range.Climate risks to health are most severe for vulnerable populations,and health systems capacity to protect them may be impaired under climate change.Climate-sensitive health risks are disproportionately felt by the most vulnerable and disadvantaged population

152、 groups,such as children,older people,persons with disabilities,and those who are immuno-compromised or have other pre-existing medical conditions.Some climate-sensitive health risks are gender-sensitive.In the general population,women are more affected by heatwaves than men due to biological,demogr

153、aphic and socio-economic factors.At the same time,men are disproportionally exposed to climate-related hazards at work because more men than women work inconstruction and agriculture,or as firefighters.Language barriers,precarious socio-economic conditions and social isolation can increase the vulne

154、rability of population groups during extreme weather events.Health infrastructure can be directly affected by climate change,e.g.by large-scale flooding or high temperatures.22European climate risk assessment Executive summaryRisk cascadesSocial and economic factors as well as infrastructure conditi

155、ons crucially influence how climate change and extreme weather affect human health.Population groups living in dwellings with poor insulation,in densely-inhabited urban quarters or with a strong urban heat island effect,and with inadequate access tocooling or secure drinking water are disproportiona

156、lly at risk from heatwaves.Climate-related disruptions of critical infrastructure,including energy,water supply and sanitation,can cascade into health risks.Climate risks to health can affect the overall health system and cascade into many economic sectors.A combination of infectious disease outbrea

157、ks and a surge in heat stress-related illnesses could considerably strain health systems that are already under pressure.This strain could more broadly affect patients in the health system overall.Impaired health and wellbeing during heatwaves can reduce labour productivity,especially in southern Eu

158、rope and for outdoor workers.This reduction can lead towider economic and financial impacts in the most affected regions.Policies and priorities for actionKey priorities for policy action include improved coordination of health policies at different levels and between Member States.This is to ensure

159、 timely and effective responses to the various health impacts of climate change.Health policies are primarily a responsibility of Member States.The EU could support assessments of health systems preparedness for climate risks in Member States.It could also support efforts for mutual learning and bui

160、lding relevant capacities in the health sector.Further assistance could be provided by strengthening the Union Civil Protection Mechanism.This would support cross-border mobilisation of medical personnel andsupplies during climate-related health emergencies,as well as the deployment of,for example,e

161、mergency medical teams.Continuous education for healthcare workers is important so they can identify illnesses that have not previously been prevalent in a given country or region.Many levers to reduce climate-related health risks lie outside classical health policies.Human health considerations,wit

162、h a focus on the most vulnerable population groups,should be incorporated into all relevant policies and climate adaptation measures.Spatial planning and building standards are key policy levers to reduce heat-related health risks.These policies have a long decision horizon and need to consider futu

163、re climate change to prevent lock-ins of unsustainable infrastructure.The EU can use its legislative authority,including the European Framework Directive for Safety and Health at Work,to establish mandatory requirements and robust enforcement mechanisms to protect outdoor workers from extreme heat(e

164、.g.in agriculture and construction).23European climate risk assessment Executive summary Provisions can be introduced within the framework of the EUs Critical Entities Resilience Directive to enhance health infrastructure resilience to climate impacts.EU measures to address significant cross-border

165、health threats may have to be strengthened.The EU is already taking measures to tackle the effects of climate change on infectious diseases.This is being done through policy initiatives,such as EU4Health.In addition,different Commission services and EU agencies ensure adequate preparedness for and r

166、esponses to possible future outbreaks.Disease surveillance systems for climate-sensitive systems may have to be strengthened and harmonised across Europe.The EU may support relevant actions of Member States,such as vector and infectious disease control programmes(including vaccination programmes whe

167、re vaccines exist),the development and implementation of health action plans and resilience measures tailored to regional needs.24European climate risk assessment Executive summaryMajor climate risks and policy priorities for the infrastructure clusterInfrastructure is highly susceptible to climate

168、risks,with risks from pluvial,fluvial and coastal flooding the most urgent to evaluate and address(see Table ES.4).In addition to these,further major climate risks are affecting buildings,the energy system and the transport system.Infrastructure clusterClimate risks for Infrastructure cluster Risk s

169、everityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarming scenario)Pluvial and fluvial floodingCoastal floodingDamage to infrastructure and buildings(*)Energy disruption due to heat and drought(hotspot region:southern Europe)Ene

170、rgy disruption due to heat and droughtEnergy disruption due to floodingMarine transportLand-based transport+MediumMediumMediumMediumLongLongLongLongAdvancedAdvancedMediumCo-ownedCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-owned(*)Urgency based on high warming sce

171、nario(late century).Urgency to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching briefRisk severityCatastrophicCriticalSubstantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Table ES.4 Assessment of major risks Extreme weather events are posing inc

172、reasing risks to the built environment and infrastructure in Europe,as well as the services they provide.Such events can disrupt essential services,including energy supply,water supply and transport networks.The impacts of extreme weather events and slow onset climate change pose a serious risk to E

173、uropes built environment and infrastructure,with grave implications for human wellbeing.This risk is further exacerbated by the ageing condition of much of Europes buildings and infrastructure,as well as growing demand for the services they provide.Pluvial and fluvial flooding are already creating s

174、ubstantial risks for the built environment and population across Europe,as evidenced by various highly destructive floods in recent years.Further increases in flood risk are projected for the future,and urgent action is needed to ensure that long-lived infrastructure is climate-resilient.Coastal flo

175、od risks have been successfully managed in Europe overall,with no major destruction or loss of life during the last 50 years.However,the accelerating pace of sea level rise and the exponential increase in the resulting flooding risks require more action now.The focus should be to prepare settlements

176、,critical infrastructure and the European population for this major and rapidly rising threat in the future.25European climate risk assessment Executive summary Projected increase in sea level and changes in storm patterns will increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in Europe,with p

177、otentially devastating impacts on Europes population,infrastructure and economic activities.Inaddition,the risk of compound flooding arising from the concurrence of high sea levels and heavy precipitation will also increase.Climate change can pose major risks to all modes of water and land-based tra

178、nsportation.This report includes broad assessments of the risks to marine(or maritime)and land-based transport,but transport on inland waterways is also affected.In the absence of comprehensive sectoral risk assessments,considerable uncertainty remains about the direct and cascading impacts of clima

179、te change on transport infrastructure and services.The European energy system is exposed to multiple climate risks,with southern Europe affected most strongly.The energy system in southern Europe already faces substantial risks from the impacts of heat and prolonged droughts on energy production,tra

180、nsmission and peak demand.Inland and coastal flooding create substantial risks to energy production,distribution and storage infrastructure in Europe.Risk cascadesInfrastructure assets are often part of a network of systems,where a disruption to one asset can quickly cascade and affect other sectors

181、 and assets.Power outages caused by extreme climate conditions can disrupt telecommunication and transportation systems as well as many other economicactivities.Conversely,climate-related disruptions to digital infrastructure can lead to power outages as power generation,transmission and distributio

182、n are controlled by digital systems.The impacts of extreme weather on critical infrastructure and buildings can exacerbate the health consequences of climate change,as health systems are dependent on power and water supply as well as transportation services.Poorly adapted dwellings and other buildin

183、gs can increase the risk of heat stress during heatwaves.Policies and priorities for actionKey priorities for policy action include conducting assessments and implementing measures to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure on a systems level,and incorporating climate projections into the

184、Eurocodes(1).(1)Eurocodes:European standards to guide the structural design of buildings and civil engineering works.These are further explained below.26European climate risk assessment Executive summary The Critical Entities Resilience Directive adopted in 2022 provides important opportunities for

185、assessing and improving the resilience of critical entities in Europe,independent of whether they are publicly or privately owned.These opportunities should be utilised to the fullest,including for resilience to climate change and extremes.Some of the critical infrastructure is agreed and co-finance

186、d at the EU level,such as the trans-European networks for transport(TEN-T)and energy(TEN-E).The EU should carry out or facilitate systems-level assessments of current and future climate risks to critical infrastructure and its services in Europe.The bloc should also develop guidance that promotes sy

187、stems-and network-centred methods to support systemic adaptation of critical infrastructure in Member States.The EU and its Member States urgently need greater clarity about the location and characteristics of critical infrastructure,and its exposure and vulnerability to climatic hazards.This entail

188、s both stress tests to identify weaknesses and regulatory oversight to monitor where progress is lacking.More clarity on private and public infrastructure is key to assess risk ownership and financial implications from measures.This is needed to increase resilience to hazards or reconstruction.A ser

189、ies of European standards(Eurocodes)is currently being updated to guide the structural design of buildings and civil engineering works.However,these standards are largely based on historical climate data.To account for future climate risks during the lifetime of current infrastructure,these standard

190、s need to incorporate climate projections based on scenario analyses,including worst-case scenarios for particularly critical assets.Increasing resilience to climate change needs to be an essential part of EU climate and energy policies,including integrated national energy and climate plans(NECPs).E

191、nsuring security of supply in southern Europe during prolonged droughts and heatwaves is key.EU climate and energy policies should better integrate climate adaptation into the planning and implementation of measures in the energy sector.This will help actors meet objectives on energy system decarbon

192、isation and security of supply.EU policies have been successful in safeguarding energy supply so far but more actions are needed for demand-side management,especially during extreme climate events.Cooling needs for buildings are increasing due to climate change,but cooling can create trade-offs with

193、 mitigation objectives because of the associated energy needs.Therefore,developing low-carbon approaches for cooling buildings,both passively and actively,and facilitating their wide implementation,is a high priority.The operation of existing energy infrastructure and the planning of a new one shoul

194、d incorporate hydrological forecasting and monitoring systems to manage risk from prolonged droughts and water scarcity.New energy infrastructure in water-scarce regions should be as water-efficient as possible and be planned considering climate projections and potentially competing demands from oth

195、ersectors.27European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate risks for Economy and financecluster Risk severityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarming scenario)European solidarity mechanismsPublic financesPro

196、perty and insurance marketsPopulation/economy due to water scarcity(hotspot region:southern Europe)Population/economy due to water scarcityPharmaceutical supply chains(*)Supply chains for raw materials and components(*)Financial marketsWinter tourism+MediumMediumMediumMediumMediumShortShortShortShor

197、tAdvancedNationalMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumEUMediumEUMediumCo-owned(*)Wide range of evaluations by authors and risk reviewers.Urgency to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching bri

198、efRisk severityCatastrophicCriticalSubstantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Table ES.5 Assessment of major risks Major climate risks and policy priorities for the economy and finance clusterEconomy and finance are facing multiple,climate-related risks.Risks to European solidarity mechanisms ar

199、e already at critical levels and require urgent action(see Table ES.5).Three other financial risks are evaluated as more action needed,and all of them could reach catastrophic risk levels in the late century without proper action.Economy and finance clusterCurrent assessments project that the Europe

200、an macro-fiscal and financial system are at substantial risk from the impacts of climate change,both within Europe and abroad.Serious sector-and regional-specific risks to Europe could catalyse a systemic financial shock.Existing assessments and stress tests provide a first assessment of the risks t

201、o important financial actors.However,they are likely to underestimate the cascading and compounding risks from climate change both in the EU and internationally,and the tail risks associated with rare extreme events.Public finances of EU Member States face substantial risks from climate change,even

202、in the near-term.Costly climate extremes can result in reduced tax revenues,increased government expenditure,lower credit ratings and increased cost of borrowing,among others.Recent examples include the fiscal implications of large floods in Germany in 2021 and in Slovenia in 2023.The viability of E

203、U solidarity funds is already critically threatened as these have been oversubscribed by various costly events,such as floods and wildfires in recent years.28European climate risk assessment Executive summary The European property and insurance markets are also facing substantial risks from climate

204、change.Intensifying climate impacts can further increase insurance premia,widen the existing protection gap,amplify economic losses,and exacerbate vulnerability among low-income households and other disadvantagedgroups.Financial institutions are exposed to climate risks from increased probability of

205、 default and loss of asset value.European societies,including businesses and services in essential sectors,are exposed to risks from climate-related disruptions to supply chains.Climate-related disruptions can interact with supply chain shocks caused by other factors,including geopolitical tension.S

206、upply chain disruption can have downstream implications for food security,access to medicine and business operations.Risk severity is uncertain due to the lack of stress tests and insufficient monitoring of supply chain vulnerabilities against current and future climatic hazards.Risk cascadesClimate

207、 change presents a systemic risk to the European macro-fiscal and financial system and the real economy,with effects transcending both borders and sectors.The likely transfer of risk from the private sector to the public sector will amplify the impacts of climate change on public finance.With more a

208、wareness and disclosure of climate-related financial risk,financial markets and companies will increasingly price physical and transition climate risks,and take them into account in their investment,lending and insurance activities.This could result in shifts,divestments or exit from high-risk secto

209、rs and regions,which could transfer more risks to households and the public sector.There is a considerable risk that the potential effects of climate change are brought forward by financial market anticipation or exacerbated by overreaction.The high potential for risks to be transferred within the s

210、ystem(contagion and second-round effects)and also to governments exacerbates climate risk to public finance.Several risks could reach catastrophic levels throughout this century under high warming scenarios.Policies and priorities for actionBetter integration of physical climate risks and adaptation

211、 needs is required for existing disclosure and due-diligence frameworks.Recently-introduced EU taxonomy disclosures,tools and future corporate sustainability due diligence requirements,as part of the sectoral regulatory and broader EU sustainable finance framework,are likely to improve predictabilit

212、y and oversight of the risks and opportunities in improving sustainability.However,these measures alone will not ensure the climate resilience of the system.This is because exposure to physical climate impacts and related adaptation needs are not systematically assessed.29European climate risk asses

213、sment Executive summary Corporate disclosure and due diligence frameworks should better account for physical climate risks and adaptation needs within companies own business operations and along the wider value chain.This should occur alongside existing requirements on transition and a consideration

214、 of human rights risks.This would help private sector actors identify mutual benefits and trade-offs.EU policies should introduce dedicated financial-and market-pull mechanisms to incentivise business-led adaptation.Business-led adaptation,including through investment into nature-based solutions,is

215、currently limited among larger corporates due to low climate risk awareness and lack of risk data.The same is largely absent among small-and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs),as well.In the absence of market incentives,EU policies are needed to incentivise adaptation and level the playing field for ear

216、ly-movers in the private sector.This can take place through public procurement mechanisms and dedicated adaptation support for SMEs.Public finance resilience in Member States needs to be strengthened through financial and insurance instruments.EU-level policy response must ensure a robust increase i

217、n the resources of the EU Solidarity Fund,the Union Civil Protection Mechanism and other solidarity mechanisms.These should also be used to incentivise higher adaptation action at the national level.These policies should also introduce or reinforce insurance and climate-resilient debt instruments to

218、 mitigate the impacts of extreme weather on public finances and the wider EU financial system.Stress tests need to better account for cascading,compounding and tail risks from climate change.Increased funding and efforts are needed to strengthen the stress tests of financial institutions alongside w

219、ider risk assessments.They should include broader sets of hazards and scenarios,and better account for cascading,compounding and tail risks to the overall EU economy,strategic industry and productive sectors,and financial markets.More action is needed to facilitate affordable access to and increase

220、the purchase of weather-related insurance for homeowners and businesses.Policies need to promote insurance with resilience-enhancing provisions that simultaneously incentivise vulnerability reductions,provide affordable access to insurance and limit the stress on public finances following extreme ev

221、ents.They also need to consider large differences in insurance penetration and arrangements across Member States.30European climate risk assessment Executive summaryMajor climate risks and policy priorities for the EU outermost regionsEU outermost regions(EU OMRs)are comprised of islands and coastal

222、 regions in subtropical and tropical zones(French Guiana,Martinique,Guadeloupe,Saint Martin,La Runion,Mayotte,Canary Islands,Madeira and the Azores).Due to their remote locations,weaker infrastructure and economic vulnerability,urgent action is needed to help them cope with tropical cyclones,sea lev

223、el rise,marine heatwaves,and droughts and wildfires.These risks are in addition to those affecting mainland regions of the EU(see Table ES.6).This report has assessed major climate risks specifically for the EU outermost regions,further divided into three subregions.The risk assessment has followed

224、the same approach as for mainland Europe,but the results are not directly comparable.This is because the threshold values for classifying risk severity have been adjusted downwards to account for the small area,population size and economic output of EU OMRs.All EU OMRs are facing critical risks to t

225、heir marine ecosystems from ocean warming and marine heatwaves that require urgent action.Tropical cyclones and sea level rise can lead to catastrophic risks for assets,infrastructure and ecosystems in small islands in tropical regions(Martinique,Guadeloupe,Saint-Martin,Saint-Barthlmy,La Runion and

226、Mayotte).These risks call for urgent action,as well.Climate risks for EU outermost regions Risk severityUrgencyto actPolicy characteristicsPolicyhorizonPolicyreadinessRiskownershipCurrentMid-centuryLate century(low/highwarming scenario)Marine ecosystems due to marineheatwaves(all outermost regions)E

227、cosystems/built environment due to sea-level riseand tropical cyclones(small islands in tropical regions)Ecosystems/built environment due to sea-level riseand tropical cyclones(Macaronesia)Ecosystems/built environment due to sea-level riseand tropical cyclones(French Guiana)Ecosystems due to wildfir

228、es(Macaronesia)Ecosystems due to wildfires(small islands in tropicalregions and French Guiana)(*)+MediumLongLongLongLongLongMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumCo-ownedMediumNationalMediumNational(*)Urgency based on high warming scenario(late century).Risk severityCatastrophicCriticalSub

229、stantialLimitedConfidenceLow:+Medium:+High:+Urgency to actLegends and notesUrgent action neededMore action neededFurther investigationSustain current actionWatching briefTable ES.6 Assessment of major risks EU outermost regions 31European climate risk assessment Executive summary The Macaronesian is

230、lands(Canary Islands,Madeira and the Azores)are already facing critical risks from wildfires.More action is also needed in relation to risks from sea level rise and tropical cyclones.Policies and priorities for actionThe main responsibility for addressing climate risks in the EU OMRs lies with these

231、 regions and the relevant Member States,but EU policies can support these efforts.Most relevant EU policies for the EU OMRs do not have a clear climate adaptation focus.For successful implementation,a better understanding of the specific risk and governance contexts of each individual region will be

232、 required.32European climate risk assessment Executive summaryWhat can Europe do to reduce climate risks and increase societal preparedness?Figure ES.5 Links between major climate risks for Europe and exposed policy areasSource:EEA.33European climate risk assessment Executive summaryClimate risks ar

233、e outpacing the development and implementation of EU policiesThe impacts of climate change compromise the ability and efficiency of EU policies to meet their objectives.The projected impacts of climate change that lie ahead could profoundly affect every aspect of society and every economic sector in

234、 Europe.Against this backdrop,addressing climate risks is an increasingly important responsibility of European governments,and more resources are required for adaptation-related action and investments.Most EU policy areas are exposed to climate risks,either directly or indirectly.Public health,envir

235、onment,agriculture and energy are among those policy areas most directly affected by major climate risks in Europe that require urgent action.The policy analysis displayed in Figure ES.5 reveals that various other EU policy areas are highly exposed,as well;in particular,industry,trade and economic,s

236、ocial and territorial cohesion.The existing array of EU-level policies is insufficiently progressing to manage most climate risks.EUCRA carried out a preliminary assessment of policy readiness at the EU-level,drawing on an evaluation of relevant EU policies by sector experts and a review by an indep

237、endent risk review panel.For most major climate risks,EU policies are not specific enough to ensure resilience against rapidly increasing risk levels.Stronger policy action or implementation is particularly urgent to reduce climate risks to marine,coastal and terrestrial ecosystems,food production,h

238、ealth risks from heatwaves,risks from coastal and inland flooding,and risks from wildfires.Urgent action is also needed to ensure that European solidarity mechanisms can cope with increasing climate-related disasters.Uncertainties and tail risks call for a precautionary policy approachDue to limitat

239、ions,current climate risk assessments tend to underestimate overall risk levels.This calls for a precautionary approach to climate risk assessment.It is essential that adaptation policies are underpinned by sound scientific evidence.However,existing approaches for climate impact modelling and quanti

240、tative climate risk assessments tend to underestimate risk levels associated with climate variability(e.g.extreme weather events),compound effects(e.g.interplay between climatic and non-climatic drivers),complex cascading risks,indirect economic impacts(e.g.run on the markets),and unlikely yet plaus

241、ible scenarios of risk drivers(also known as tail risks).Hence,most current climate risk assessments are inherently conservative and tend to underestimate the potential impact of climate change.EUCRA attempts to address this bias by complementing quantitative evidence of climate risks with an expert

242、-based assessment of current and future risk levels.European adaptation policies on both EU and Member State level should follow a precautionary approach to risk management,particularly for risks with potentially catastrophic consequences.While it is standard practice in insurance and the wider fina

243、ncial industry to focus on low-probability,high impact scenarios(so-called tail risks),current European adaptation policies largely centre on middle-of-the-road scenarios at the cost of neglecting tail risks.Since the weather extremes of recent years increasingly suggest that the effects of climate

244、change are likely to exceed many scenarios from climate models,it is thus imperative that adaptation(and mitigation)policies designed by the EU and Member States hedge against this uncertainty by developing policies that also consider the impacts of tail risks.Failing to account for them can leave t

245、he EU dangerously exposed to the extreme and unexpected impacts of climate change,such as catastrophic coastal flooding under high-end sea level rise scenarios.34European climate risk assessment Executive summaryA systems-approach for increasing Europes resilience to climate changeA systems-approach

246、 to adaptation and resilience-building must be prioritised on both EU and Member State level.This will help transcend sector silos and isolated risk drivers to better account for cascading and compounding risks.It is evident across EUCRA that the effects of climate change can be exacerbated by the c

247、ompound effects of multiple climate drivers,and the interplay between climate and non-climate drivers.Therefore,a holistic and integrated approach to ensure policy coherence and adaptation on a whole systems level is needed.This is particularly important as the policies that may be most effective in

248、 managing the risk can reside outside the exposed policy area.Indeed,EUCRA indicates that policies related to ecosystems,agriculture and health have an especially high adaptation potential across different sectors.Some progress has been made,in particular since the adoption of the EU Adaptation Stra

249、tegy in 2021,which sets out important objectives around mainstreaming adaptation across different policy areas.The EU has introduced or expanded important horizontal policies and instruments to support adaptation across sectors,including the Critical Entities Resilience Directive,the Union Civil Pro

250、tection Mechanism,the European Regional Development Fund,the Cohesion Fund and the European Social Fund Plus.The EU should bolster climate adaptation actions further through regulatory and policy levers.This includes,among others,the CAP,the CFP,the Water Framework Directive and the Nature Restorati

251、on Law.The development of a systems-approach to adaptation remains a major area for future research.Investing in social justice and cohesionAddressing underlying social drivers of climate risks is essential to achieving just resilience.Demographic and socio-economic factors(e.g.age and health status

252、;access to resources,healthcare,social protection,transportation,insurance and communication;and occupational exposure to climate-related hazards)are shaping the distribution of climate risks and exacerbating the effects on specific population groups in Europe.Furthermore,ill-designed adaptation pol

253、icies can leave vulnerable and marginalised social groups behind in benefitting from collective adaptation action.Some adaptation responses can even exacerbate existing inequalities and worsen security and overall well-being,thereby increasing climate vulnerability.Therefore,considerations of justic

254、e,fairness and inclusiveness must be central to EU adaptation policies.At the national level,a few European countries have started to integrate just resilience and social justice concerns into adaptation policies,but consideration of these factors is still sporadic and uneven.Inclusive decision-maki

255、ng processes that involve marginalised and vulnerable groups are essential to adaptation planning at national,regional and local levels.Theconsideration of diverse perspectives contributes to more effective and equitable transformative adaptation strategies.Local knowledge and community engagement a

256、re essential to identifying context-specific vulnerabilities and effective adaptation strategies.Inclusive approaches to climate risk management can also discourage recurrence to climate litigation,which has become an important legal tool to address climate risks and inequalities.Risk ownership and

257、governance barriersThe EU and Member States need to work together to reduce climate risks in Europe effectively.Most major climate risks for Europe identified in this report are co-owned by the EU and its Member States,which may involve further sub-national 35European climate risk assessment Executi

258、ve summarylevels.This means that policies key to mitigating climate risks fall under the EUs shared competences or multiple competence areas under the auspices of both the EU and Member States.In many cases,this involves the EU providing policy framing whereas the Member States maintain the responsi

259、bility for designing the implementation approaches.The complicated and at times ambiguous configuration of risk ownership between the EU and its Member States can be a barrier to effective risk reduction.The EUs policy and legal frameworks also place constraints on the EUs ability to introduce bindi

260、ng legislation or targets on adaptation.For instance,one of the main climate risks identified that requires urgent policy action is the risk to human health from heat stress exacerbated by climate change.With the exception of occupational health,relevant health policies are mainly the responsibility

261、 of individual Member States,which places real limits on EU-level adaptation to this risk.In addition,adaptation objectives are inherently difficult to quantify.The rapid rise of climate risks across Europe may require new ways of cooperating across governance levels to achieve tangible and measurab

262、le progress in reducing the most urgent climate risks.Such approaches can be informed by experiences with the EU Mission on Climate Adaptation and other relevant EU instruments andpolicies.Stronger policy objectives and improved risk analysis for the most urgent climaterisksSome of the commitments o

263、utlined in the 2021 EU Adaptation Strategy are underpinned by legally-binding EU directives in relevant policy areas,but many of its objectives and actions are vaguely defined and lack concrete proposals.Some actions rely on voluntary commitments by Member States,most of which in turn rely on legall

264、y non-binding commitments and soft policies for guiding adaptationactions.Stronger EU policy action is urgently needed to manage several climate risks where the EU either has the legislative responsibility or is in the position to act.A few major climate risks identified in this report either largel

265、y reside under the legislative responsibility of the EU,or the EU appears in the best position to act based on the cross-border nature of the affected system.For example,the risk relating to climate change impacts on marine ecosystems requires urgent policy action in policy areas from maritime spati

266、al planning to marine environmental protection,to fisheries policy and land-based pollution control.While some of these policies fall under the shared responsibility of the EU and Member States,the international coordination required to protect marine ecosystems under climate change suggests that th

267、e EU is in the best position to lead these efforts.The EU can play an important role in improving the analysis of major climate risks identified in this report through legislation,monitoring,funding and technical support.About a third of the major climate risks for Europe identified in this report w

268、ere categorised as Further investigation.These include risks to energy systems,transport networks and other critical infrastructure,and risks of climate-related,supply chain disruptions from outside Europe.Most of these risks can reach critical or even catastrophic levels,but current knowledge may b

269、e insufficient for adopting concrete policies to reduce these risks.The EU can play an important role in filling such knowledge gaps and improving the understanding of the risks themselves,as well as of the ability of European and national-level policies to address these risks.Such information would

270、 also be instrumental input for a follow-up EUCRA.36European climate risk assessment Executive summaryThe first European Climate Risk Assessment(EUCRA)aims to support the identification of climate adaptation-related policy priorities in Europe and policy development in climate-sensitive sectors.It w

271、as conducted by the European Environment Agency at the request of the European Commission,with involvement ofa wide range of experts and stakeholders.EUCRA focuses on climate risks that have potentially large consequences in Europe or need coordination at the European or transnational level.EUCRA al

272、so indicates particularly affected regions,sectors or population groups where possible.This report builds on,extends and complements the existing knowledge base on climate impacts and risks for Europe.This knowledge base includes recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),

273、the Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission(JRC);outcomes of EU-funded research and development projects;and national climate risk assessments.The current knowledge is synthesised with the goal to make it more directly relevant to strategic poli

274、cymaking.Innovations in EUCRA include a more granular identification of major climate risks for Europe,linking these risks with the European policy context,a structured risk evaluation process and systematic involvement of key stakeholders throughout the production of the report.The first EUCRA is a

275、 fast-track assessment that does not cover all aspects about how climate change can impact Europe.This report has been produced over one and a half years,which is much shorter than typical national climate risk assessments.Considering the limited time available,the political priorities and the exper

276、tise of the partners involved,some climate-related risks for Europe have received limited or no attention.These include risks related to the EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy,including geopolitical risks,and climate risks that are predominantly being managed by private actors.Furthermore,this r

277、eport does not review adaptation policies and actions at the national level,and it does not assess specific adaptation solutions or their costs and benefits.This report presents information in thematic factsheets and risk storylines.Thematic factsheets give a concise overview of how climate change a

278、ffects specific sectors or systems,using a common structure.Risk storylines address complex climate risks resulting from the interaction of various climatic and non-climatic risk drivers,which can cascade across sectors or national borders and could lead to systemic impacts.The risk storylines use a

279、 common structure as well,but their content shows more variation than for factsheets.Impact chains played an important role in the development of this report;they were used in all factsheets and several storylines.About the report 37European climate risk assessment Executive summaryA systematic proc

280、ess for assessing the severity and urgency of climate risksEUCRA has followed a systematic risk assessment process to identify,analyse and evaluate major climate risks for Europe.The risk analysis assesses risk severity according to four categories(catastrophic,critical,substantial and limited(2)for

281、 three time periods(current,mid-century and late century).This analysis also addresses the distribution of risks across regions where relevant and the confidence in the knowledge base.The policy analysis includes indicative assessments of the policy horizon(lead time and decision horizon),risk owner

282、ship across governance levels(describing where the lead responsibility to manage a major climate risk lies),and an indicative assessment of policy readiness(3)with a focus at the EU level.Climate risks are as a general principle evaluated at the pan-European level.When a climate risk affects differe

283、nt parts of Europe very differently,regional assessments were conducted for four sub-continental regions:northern,western,central-eastern and southern Europe.EUCRA evaluates the urgency to act for all major climate risks according to five categories:urgent action needed,more action needed,further in

284、vestigation,maintain current action and watching brief.The urgency to act for each climate risk is determined based on the risk severity and confidence level over time,policy horizon and policy readiness.EUCRA was supported by an independent risk review panel.This panel consisted of senior European

285、experts on climate impact modelling,climate risk assessment and adaptation planning.The panel members reviewed and,where necessary,adjusted authors initial assessments of risk and policy characteristics to ensure homogeneity and comparability across the different chapters of the EUCRA report.EUCRA d

286、raws on a wide range of knowledge and expertise,but subjective elements cannot be completely avoided.The risk assessment process was designed to produce policy-relevant results in a transparent manner.Nevertheless,each step includes some subjective elements from the experts involved,such as how narr

287、owly or widely to define a climate risk,how to combine knowledge from different sources or assumptions related to the future development of non-climatic risk drivers.Furthermore,the methodology includes guidance on how to evaluate the severity of risks to the economy,health and ecosystems in a compa

288、rative manner.Such a comparison unavoidably requires assumptions on the importance of risks affecting very different systems and aspects of societies.Finally,the policy assessment is only indicative:this first EUCRA did not consider national policies and policy implementation in a systematic manner.

289、(2)Risk severity categories:Catastrophic Very large and frequent damage,very large extent or very high pervasiveness,irreversible loss of system functionality,systemic risk.Critical Large and frequent damage,large extent and high pervasiveness,long-term disturbance of system functionality,cascading

290、effects beyond system boundaries.Substantial Substantial losses,moderate extent or pervasiveness,temporary or moderate disturbance of system functionality.Limited Limited or rare losses,no significant disturbance of system functionality.Further information,including quantitative benchmarks related t

291、o climate risks to people,the economy and ecosystems,is available in the main report.(3)Policy readiness categories:Medium policies,plans,strategies or legislation are in place,but their targets and objectives are vague,or only short-term actions are considered.Advanced policies,plans or strategies

292、that manage the risk effectively are partly in place.Getting in touch with the EU In personAll over the European Union there are hundreds of Europe Direct information centres.You can find the address of the centre nearest you at:https:/european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu_en On the phone or by emailE

293、urope Direct is a service that answers your questions about the European Union.You can contact this service:by freephone:00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11(certain operators may charge for these calls),or at the following standard number:+32 22 99 96 96 or by email via:https:/european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu_e

294、nFinding information about the EU OnlineInformation about the European Union in all the official languages of the EU is available on the Europa website at:https:/european-union.europa.eu/index_en EU publications You can download or order free and priced EU publications at:https:/op.europa.eu/en/web/

295、general-publications/publications.Multiple copies of free publications may be obtained by contacting Europe Direct or your local information centre (see https:/european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu_en).European Environment AgencyEuropean climate risk assessment Executive summary2024 37 pp.21 x 29.7 cmISBN:978-92-9480-627-7doi:10.2800/204249EEA Report XX/2023European Environment AgencyKongens Nytorv 61050 Copenhagen K,DenmarkTel.:+45 33 36 71 00Web:eea.europa.euEnquiries:eea.europa.eu/enquiriesTH-AL-24-001-EN-Ndoi:10.2800/204249