1、 1 / 34 / 191620 501958 2000 7% 56% 1016536 40% EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 19.79 1.28 1.31 1.70 12 15 12 -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 2020/6 % 1M 3M 12M 5.33% 13.01% 9.36% -3.51% -3.09% -0.77% 366 34297 25463 21.58

2、1.46 50513 1180 % 52.66 002601 2020-04-07 600143 2020-04-28 2020-01-21 : S0550518100001 2020-07-04 2 / 34 1. . 5 1.1. . 5 1.2. . 7 1.3. . 7 1.4. . 9 1.4.1. 2000. 9 1.4.2. . 11 1.4.3. . 16 2. . 17 2.1. . 17 2.2. . 19 2.2.1. Chemours . 19 2.2.2. Tronox . 22 2.2.3. Venator . 24 2.2.4. . 25

3、 3. . 26 3.1. . 26 3.1.1. . 26 3.1.2. . 29 3.1.3. . 30 3.2. . 31 4. . 32 3 / 34 1 . 5 2 . 5 320. 6 42003-2018 . 8 52015 . 9 62019 . 9 7 . 11 8 .13 92013-2019.14 10 . 11 11 .18 12 .19 13 .20 14 .21 15Tronox .22 16.23 17.23 18.23 19Venator .25 20 .26 212018 .26 222018 .26 23() .28 24.28 25.28 26- .29

4、27/.30 28 .30 29 .31 30 .32 31 .32 1 . 7 2 . 8 3 .13 41 .14 5 .16 6 .21 7 .24 8 .24 9 .24 102019.25 112017 .27 4 / 34 12.30 13 .31 5 / 34 1. 1.1. TiO2 A R 1 2 2019318.1 297.220.9 93.4%6.6% 1908A JTiO21919 Thann Mulhouse1923 AR 1955 1998 6 / 34 320 A.J TiO2 G.P. 1000t/a , A Thann et Mulhouse A A R PP

5、G R () AP&CC 6 1920 1919 1000t 25%TiO2 19231930s0-1937 1939 1940s0s19511956 19571959 1960s 19651970s1980s1990s 1911TiO2 1916 19162050 1958 198029%2000 65% 60% 85% 7 / 34 1.2. AR 3050 2050 2080 2090 212000-2008 2.6%2009 1 2009 Grimsby4/ 2009 15 2013 2

6、015 15 2015 KwinanaTiwest 2017 Calais10 1.3. 2 V enator382.5 137 2011-2015 2015 1652015-2017 2010 8 / 34 19.4%201943% 42003-2018 2 1997 80% 17 33.7 1998 47.371.5 1999 ICI 2000 20% 2007 2008 Sachtleben 2013 2016 56 2019 143 2019 91 20152019 2015 15%12% 11% 9 / 34 52015 6: 2019 20157, 201666 2017 2019

7、 1.4. 1.4.1. 2000 19552020 651956 60 1955 1956 1958A1967 R1978 215% 2080“” 5 80 90 10010 1998901.5 27 10 / 34 90% 20002009 2011 GDP 2016 “” 211998 19.8201938017% 1814% “”“” 11 / 34 7 1.4.2. 50 1955 1956 1958A1967 R20 12 / 34 80 5 90100 10 401990 19992001 3/2011 ” 2014 20136/ 90 2015 2019

8、TiO2 2050 90% TiO2 13 / 34 8 CNKI 3 1918 2050 “” “” CNKI 90% 10% 10%-15% 14 / 34 13-482 4107kJ1 0.150.6530% 41 /m3 200 15 /m3 1.5-2.0 0.67 /t 0.20.3+ 6.4 0.155 /m3 80100 50% /(107 kJ) 2.9264.18 30% CNKI 201910 20193/ 2019 20.9201813.4456%,2011 1.1%20196.57%3-5 92013-2019 15 / 34 10 20112013 2009 199

9、0s11990 2019 2016 2015 2014 2010 2008 2004 4 2012 CNKI 16 / 34 1.4.3. 201940 3187.69% 2019380/40/ 11.76% 201983.68% 2019 234.619.07 2019318254 80%2.39%5216.29%1.3% 123.70%1.5% 2020194 20.9202019 6.56%8.20% 201920/ 6/ 2020-2022 59/ 20194090 1101158 1018201912 280.572.96%1015.6%1

10、8 11.44% 5 / 5 91 3 33 3 23.5 3 23 2 22 2 20 2 13 2 12 1 12 1 11 1 10 2 10 1 8 2 7 2 7 1 6 1 6 1 6 17 / 34 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 4 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 57 384.5 2. 2.1. 1955 2011 20169 18 / 34 11 30 30/ 2019 568.10%52.19 2019735341 26.18%52.19 98.39% 681 20

11、 70% 19 / 34 12 2011-2015 2017 147.45%466.02%2018 8.66%2019114 8.2%2613.29% 82.96% 83.05%76.62% 2.2. 2.2.1. Chemours 20131024 201571 20 / 34 13 Ti -Pure TM TM Ti - PureTM Commercial Pigments Corporation Ti -PureTM Altamira Ti - PureTM 100%Ti - PureTMTi -PureTM Altamira6 AltamiraTi-PureTM 500 1917193

12、119351941 3 3 20162017 1976 21 / 34 14 Ti-Pure 70 6 OSHA TiO 1 GDP 22 / 34 2 15 3 2.2.2. Tronox 2005Kerr-McGee22 7,0002012 Exxaro Resources 1020 2019 Cristal Global 15Tronox 23 / 34 16 17 18 250UMMUnattritioned Magnetic Material, UMMJazan Fairbreeze10Jazan 24 / 34 CooljarlooDon

13、garaCristal 7 4100 1400 1100 2018 3.2 2.2 5.3 2018 11.1 13.6 8.4 8 19 22 22 2018 18.1 19.4 21.1 2018 9.5 11.2 - 90500ktpa 2020 1.25 890090 3.22 9 22.5 16.5 9 3.2 15 11 6 20 4.614 2.2.3. Venator 201788 V enator Materials 25 / 34 TDMA 19Venator 2.2.4. 201818 2020192019 2019 100/ 102019 () 32 16 36 LTM

14、 3.1 3.8 1.3 LTM) 24 30 15 LTMEBITDA ) 5.89 7.43 5.44 LTM 24% 24% 37% 2019 137 124 101 Wind2019 26 / 34 20 3. 3.1. 3.1.1. 40 2018 TiO29.428.893.42% 28.4% 212018 222018 27 / 34 70.37%2017 708tTiO2 79.3%60%RioTinto IlukaTronox 112017 / LacallardRichardsbay 74%Mandena80% 170 25% MurrayPerth 110 16.2% K

15、ZNNaamakawa74% Tiwest 75 11% Teles 40 5.9% Moma 33 4.9% BunburyBrokenhill 27 4.0% ChavaraMKOrissa 25.5 3.8% V.V.Mineral TamilNaduAndraPradesh 22 3.2% IrshanskyGOK IrshanskValliMezhyrichensky 19 2.8% NorthStradbrokeIslandBrisbane 17 2.5% CNKI 2018205 2.3TiO224.42% Q15000t 65.22% 28 / 34 23() 30% 2% 2

16、% 400 302018 454.4731240.7% 24 25 CNKI 29 / 34 2009Capel 2013 2017 2019 80% 201955.5285.31 3.1.2. - I - 26- CNKI 30 / 34 “” 80% 9500 3.1.3. 611 1.8320180.9 2016 2015 201942.37% 12 / 2019 11+18 6+20 1.83+0.9 2019 10 5 2 2020 18 6 3 2020 12 6 2 17 8 2.13 20 6 3.3 27/ 28 31 / 34 29 WindBloomberg 3.2. 1

17、3 3 CNKI 32 / 34 360 7%56% 30 31 CNKI 4. 1016536 40% 2016 2019 15.66% .25 186.46 230.65 26.6234.6443.51PE15X12X 9X“” 33 / 34 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 34 / 34 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 1

18、7717370432 chen_ L liu_ C