1、 长寿时代的理论与对策 Theories and Countermeasures for the Age of Longevity 作者：陈东升 Author: Chen Dongsheng 版权所有：泰康保险集团 Copyright 2020 Taikang Insurance Group. All Rights Reserved 长寿时代的理论与对策 Theories and Countermeasures for the Age of Longevity 泰康保险集团 Taikang Insurance Group rQmPsPmRmOrQnRqNvNvMnO9P8Q9PsQrRoMrR

2、jMoOwPiNqQtP7NrRuNMYmOwPxNoOwO 1 长寿时代的理论与对策 陈东升 摘要：人类社会正在进入长寿时代，这将是关系人类未来发展的 重大问题。长寿时代的特征是低死亡率、低生育率、寿命延长，在相 当长的时间内，人们的预期寿命每 10 年会增长 23 岁，若干年后， 相当多的人可能进入百岁人生。与此同时，人口年龄结构从金字塔结 构转变为柱状结构，平台期老龄人口占比超越 1/4。本文完善了长寿 时代的概念，认为长寿时代将是人口转变下的新均衡，并在此基础上 对相关学术理论进行归纳研究， 系统地阐述了长寿时代的特征和形成， 进而提出长寿时代将带来健康时代和财富时代，对社会的经济模式

3、、 产业结构及各个方面造成影响。本文以动态的视角看待人类社会对老 龄人口占比增多现象的应对现状，对长寿时代给社会经济可能带来的 影响进行了剖析，指出长寿时代下会产生新形态的长寿经济，将在微 观层面深刻改变个人的生活方式及健康财富规划，促使企业转变经营 方式、保持组织活力、承担社会责任。基于此，本文从社会、政府、 企业三个层面探讨了长寿时代的解决方案，尤其强调企业应创新商业 模式、引入共享及生态理念，对引导长寿时代下的产业变革与企业转 型具有理论与实践意义。 关键词：长寿时代 人口红利 长寿经济 产业结构 目 录 引言 长寿时代的特征及形成 长寿时代对社会经济的影响 长寿时代的对策 结论 长寿时

4、代关键词汇中英文对照 A. Foreword B. Characteristics and causes of the age of longevity C. The socio-economic impact of the age of longevity D. Countermeasures in the age of longevity E. Conclusion 3 15 53 85 101 113 4 16 56 88 106 32 Theories and countermeasures for the age of longevity Chen Dongsheng Abstrac

5、t: Human society is entering an age of longevity, which poses a sig- nificant challenge for the future development of humanity. This age of lon- gevity is characterised by low mortality and birth rates and prolonged lifes- pans. For a quite long period of time, the life expectancy of human being has

6、 increased by 2-3 years every 10 years, and the number of centenarians in our midst is increasing. At the same time, the population age structure has changed, from pyramidal to pillar-shaped, and then plateaued with the elder- ly share of population higher than one quarter. This article further refi

7、nes the definition of the age of longevity, considers it as a new steady state of the de- mographic transition, and, on this basis, performs an inductive research with relevant academic theories. The article will also provide a systematic expla- nation of the characteristics and causes of the age of

8、 longevity, and further propose that this age of longevity will usher in an era of health and an era of wealth, which will have an impact on society in terms of economic models, industrial structures and a range of other dimensions. In addition, this arti- cle provides a dynamic view of how our soci

9、ety is responding to the rapid ageing, evaluates the potential social and economic impacts of this age of longevity, and proposes that in this era, a new model of longevity economy will emerge, which will bring about profound changes to personal lifestyles, health management and wealth planning at t

10、he micro level, and encourage enterprises to change the ways in which they do business, to maintain organ- isational vitality, and to assume greater amounts of social responsibility. On this basis, this article discusses potential solutions to the challenges posed by this age of longevity from a com

11、munity, government and corporate per- spective, with a particular emphasis on the need for businesses to innovate in terms of their business models, and embrace the concept of sharing and the ecology. This article therefore has theoretical and practical implications for guiding industrial change and

12、 corporate transformation in this age of longevity. Keywords: Age of longevity Demographic dividend Longevity economy Industrial structure 一、引言 随着世界老龄人口占比不断增加的趋势日益明显，学界普遍认为 其速度加快会带来一系列社会问题，日本等部分国家已出现了经济衰 退现象。但也有实证研究发现老龄人口不断增加与经济增长之间没有 负面关系，经济学家将其归因于相关国家的科技发展及对老龄化的适 应速度较快 （Acemoglu and Restrepo， 2017

13、） 。 面对人类寿命日益延长， 一些学者聚焦于寿命实质增长所带来的生活与就业的改变， 提出了 “长 寿时代”（the Age of Longevity）的概念（琳达格拉顿等，2018）。 我们认为“长寿时代”这一概念 , 虽然包含“老龄化”所描述的一些 典型人口现象，但更多地指向老年人口占比升高后人类社会的一种相 对稳定状态，有着更丰富的含义。首先，“长寿时代”更具前瞻性， 强调人口结构转变后的新均衡及其带来的影响，启迪个人和社会立足 全生命周期，积极主动地应对这一变化。而老龄化多是关注老年人口 变化的阶段性过程和发展困境，其视角往往着眼于老龄人口本身及其 产生的问题，偏向被动应对。其次，“长

14、寿时代”涵盖的领域更广， 包括长寿与健康、财富等主题的内在关联，蕴涵了人口现象背后一系 列的挑战和机遇。最后，在阐述“长寿时代”特征时，我们不仅仅停 留在死亡率、出生率下降这两个导致“老龄化”的因素上，而是增加 了对寿命增长和人口结构变迁长期趋势的预测，把“长寿时代”所指 的长期的、相对稳定的人口和社会经济形态界定得更清晰。本文旨在 系统性地阐述“长寿时代”的内涵与外延，扩充完善其学术理论，并 在社会、政府、企业层面探讨了对长寿时代的应对思路。 2014 年 International Health Economics Association（iHEA）曾以长寿时代的健康经济（Health E

15、conomics In the Age of Longevity）为主题举办世界健康经济大会。 54 A. Foreword In the face of the accelerating trend of old-age dependency ratio, there is a widespread belief in the academic world that the increasing speed of popu- lation ageing will give rise to a range of social problems. Indeed, a number of coun

16、tries, notably including Japan, have already begun to show signs of an economic recession. Empirical studies, however, have found no negative relationship between this ongoing acceleration in population ageing and economic growth, a fact that economists attribute to the technological de- velopments

17、of the countries involved, and their relatively rapid adaptation to ageing (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017). Faced with a constant increase in human life expectancy, a number of scholars have focused on the changes in lifestyles and employment brought about by the real increase in life ex- pectancy, an

18、d have proposed the concept of “the Age of Longevity” (Lynda Gratton et al., 2018) (1). In our view, although this concept includes a number of typical population traits encompassed by the term “ageing”, it further highlights the relative stability of human society as the proportion of the el- derly

19、 in the population increases, and therefore has a wider, deeper meaning. First of all, this “age of longevity” is more forward-looking, emphasising the new steady state and the impact thereof following this demographic transition, inspiring individuals and society as a whole to grasp all stages of l

20、ife cycle, and actively respond to this change. While ageing is mainly concerned with the gradual process of population ageing and the re- sulting development issues, its point of view often focuses on the ageing population itself and the problems that it creates, and tends to provide passive respon

21、ses to these. Secondly, the “age of longevity” covers a wider range of areas, including the interconnection of longevity, health, wealth and other themes, implicitly suggesting a series of challenges and opportunities which lie beyond the population dynamics itself. Finally, when describing the char

22、acteristics of this “age of longevity”, we have not merely confined ourselves to the twin factors of declining mortality and birth rate which lead to the “ageing”, but have also expanded pre- dictions of long-term trends in life expectancy growth and demographic changes, to provide a clearer definit

23、ion of the long-term, relatively stable population and socio-economic patterns referred to in the “age of lon- 数据表明，世界正在快速地变老。联合国人口司世界人口展望 2019显示，2019 年世界人口平均预期寿命已达到 72.6 岁，比 1990 年提升 8.4 岁，预计 2050 年全球平均预期寿命有望达到 77.1 岁。 1990 年全球 65 岁及以上老人约占总人口的 6.2%，2019 年这一数字上 升到 9.1%，预计到 2050 年将达到 15.9%。与此同时，80 岁以

24、上高龄 人口的增速会超过低龄老人，1990 年全球 80 岁以上人口只有 5400 万， 2019 年已达 1.43 亿，预计到 2050 年将达到 4.26 亿。同时，联合国数 据还显示 , 在过去的几十年里，全球几乎都在经历生育率的下降，总 和生育率已从 1990 年的 3.2 降至 2019 年的 2.5，到 2050 年将可能降 至 2.2 的水平。这也导致全球出生人口增速已经变得非常缓慢，预计 到 2045 年后全球出生人口数量将开始逐年下降。根据联合国人口司 中等假设水平预测，全球人口规模可能在 2100 年前后到达顶峰并开 始回落，也有一部分人口学家认为 2050 年就有可能迎来

25、人口拐点（达 雷尔布里克等，2019）。 联合国给出的人口中位数变化趋势显示，与许多欧美国家相比， 东亚国家的老龄人口增长速度更快。其中，日本老龄人口占比自 2005 年开始超过北欧国家高居全球首位，其老年抚养比目前已达到 48%。 2010 年至 2019 年之间，日本的死亡人数比出生人数多出 260 万人， 预计到 21 世纪中叶日本人口将减少到 1 亿左右，21 世纪末将进一步 缩水至 7500 万人。近年，日本的情况在亚太地区（韩国、新加坡、 中国香港和台湾地区等）相继重演，其发展脉络具有借鉴意义。 与东亚发达国家和地区类似，中国的人均期望寿命在增加，老龄 人口增长速度不断加快，人口年

26、龄结构正在发生深刻变化。中国 2016 (1) In 2014, the International Health Economics Association (iHEA) held a World Health Economics Confer- ence on the topic of Health Economics In the Age of Longevity. 76 gevity”. This article aims to provide a systematic explanation of the meaning and connotations of the “age of

27、 longevity”, expand and enhance academic theory on the subject, and discuss responses to the age of longevity at the so- cial, government and corporate levels. The data indicates that the world is ageing rapidly. The United Nations Population Divisions World Population Prospects 2019 shows that in 2

28、019, the average life expectancy of the worlds population was 72.6 years, an increase of 8.4 years compared to 1990. By 2050, global average life expec- tancy is expected to reach 77.1 years. In 1990, the elderly, i.e., those aged 65 years and above, made up 6.2% of the worlds total population, wher

29、eas by 2019, this figure had risen to 9.1%; by 2050, it is expected to reach 15.9%. At the same time, the growth rate of the population over 80 years old will outstrip that of the younger segment of the elderly population. In 1990, the global population above 80 years of age comprised a mere 54 mill

30、ion peo- ple, whereas by 2019, this had risen to 143 million, and is expected to reach 426 million by 2050. United Nations data also shows that over the past few decades, the world has experienced a decline in fertility almost across the board. From 3.2 in 1990, the total fertility rate had dropped

31、to 2.5 in 2019, and is likely to further decline to 2.2 by 2050. This has also brought about a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the global birth population, and global birth population numbers are expected to begin to decline year on year from 2045 onward. According to the United Nations P

32、opulation Divisions medium-variant projections, the size of the global population may peak around 2100 and then begin to fall, while some demographers believe that the population inflection point may come as early as in 2050 (Darrell Bricker et al., 2019). According to the trend of populations media

33、n age reported by United Nations, the ageing population of the nations of East Asia is growing faster than that of many European and American countries. Of these na- tions, the proportion of Japans elderly population has, since 2005, surpassed that of the Nordic countries, and now ranks first worldw

34、ide, with an old-age dependency ratio currently standing at 48%. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of deaths in Japan was 2.6 million higher than the number of births. It is estimated that, by the mid-21st century, Japans population will reduce 年的人口预期寿命为 76.3 岁，在 195 个国家中排名 68 位，有学者认 为若按此趋势保持下去，2040

35、 年中国的排名将会上升至 39 位，人口 预期寿命达到 81.9 岁（Foreman et al.，2018）。在老龄人口占比结构 及增长速度方面，根据国家统计局公布的数据，中国 65 岁及以上人 口占比已从 2000 年的 7.0% 上升到 2019 年的 12.6%。据联合国预计， 到 2025 年中国 65 岁及以上人口占比就将上升到 14%，到 2045 年预 计每 4 个中国人中就有 1 位老人。 与世界发达国家相比，中国将面临更多的挑战。中国人口基数大、 生育率下降快，导致老龄人口增长进程愈发加速；国家医疗保障体制、 福利保障体系难以匹配将要到来的社会人口年龄结构；人口预期寿命 快

36、速增长，但人均收入及储蓄均不及同时期发达国家，难以支撑个人 退休期间的消费水平，或导致“未富先老”、“又老又穷”的社会现 象发生。2019 年中国 65 岁及以上人口占比达 12.6%，人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，而美、日、韩老龄人口比重达 12.6% 时人均 GDP 均在 2.4 万美元以上。有国外专家提出，中国未来的老龄人口增长速度很可能 比日本更快，引起的问题也更严重。 人类进入 18 世纪中叶，尤其是工业革命以后，期望寿命开始前 所未有地增长，长期以来相对恒定的人口年龄结构发生深刻改变，这 引起了学者的极大兴趣和理论思考（安格斯迪顿，2014）。近代人 口学诞生以来经历了三个主要理

37、论发展阶段：一是从 18 世纪末发展 至今的马尔萨斯主义理论，二是 20 世纪后期兴起的人口衰竭理论， 三是近 20 年间对“积极老龄化”（Active Ageing）的广泛探讨及相关 研究。然而面对目前全球范围下的老龄人口增长浪潮，各种理论都难 98 to approximately 100 million and will shrink further to 75 million by the end of the century. In recent years, Japans situation has been repeated across the Asia-Pacific reg

38、ion (South Korea, Singapore, and Chinas regions of Hong Kong and Taiwan, inter alia). Japans pattern of population dynamics, there- fore, has useful implications for China. In a similar way to the developed nations and regions of East Asia, Chinas average life expectancy is also increasing, the grow

39、th rate of the elderly population is constantly accelerating, and the age structure of the population is undergoing profound changes. In 2016, Chinas life expectancy was 76.3 years, ranking 68th out of 195 countries. Some schol- ars believe that if this trend continues, China will climb the ranks to

40、 39th by 2040, with a population life expectancy of 81.9 years (Foreman et al., 2018). In terms of the relative size of the elderly population, data released by Chi- nas National Bureau of Statistics shows that the proportion of the countrys population aged 65 years and above has risen, from 7.0% in

41、 2000 to 12.6% in 2019. According to United Nations estimates, by 2025, Chinas population aged 65 years and above will rise to 14%, and it is estimated that every one in four persons in China will be elderly by 2045. Compared with the worlds developed countries, China will face even greater challeng

42、es. Chinas large population base and rapidly declining fer- tility rate have accelerated the growth of its elderly population; the national health and welfare systems will find it difficult to keep up with the impending age structure of the population; and the life expectancy of the population is ri

43、sing fast, but average per capita income and savings are lower than those of developed countries over the same stage of demographic transition. Difficul- ties are being encountered supporting the consumption levels of individuals during retirement, and instances of “Getting Old before Getting Rich”

44、and old-age penury can be found across society. In 2019, Chinas population aged 65 years and above made up 12.6% of the total population, while per capita GDP had broken the USD 10, 000 barrier. By contrast, at the stage when their American, Japanese and Korean counterparts made up 12.6% of the popu

45、la- tion, these nations per capita GDP already exceeded USD 24, 000. A number of foreign experts have proposed that the growth rate of Chinas future age- ing population may very likely be higher than Japans, and the problems that 以有效应对挑战。 第一类理论为马尔萨斯主义学派。近代人口问题研究的先驱马尔 萨斯在其人口理论中阐述了农业社会中资源对人口增长的限制作用， 后

46、衍生出马尔萨斯学派，强调控制人口的必要性。20 世纪 70 年代， 著名民间学术组织罗马俱乐部对工业时期的人口过度增长及其所致的 经济增长极限作出建模预测（德内拉梅多斯等 ,2019），认为马尔 萨斯式的人口增长及资源利用将导致不可控的衰竭， 应引起警惕重视。 该类预测在近年被真实数据证明存在偏误，未充分考虑技术革命带来 的资源解放以及城市化导致的生育意愿降低，过度放大了人口增长的 潜在风险。 第二类理论密切关注老龄人口增长问题，并提出人口衰竭的预期。 20 世纪末至今，全球相继迈入老龄人口快速增长阶段且各国缺乏有效 应对方案，有关人口结构老龄化、人口规模衰减的分析研究开始大量 兴起。1987

47、 年，德克范德卡（Dirk Van de Kaa）提出“第二次人口 转变”（The Second Demographic Transition），对生育率低于人口替 代率的现象作出解释（Van de Kaa，1987）。在分析老龄人口增长及 人口规模下降的成因及影响方面，多国学者均指出人口老龄化及人口 负增长会对消费、生产力、就业、创新、竞争力、财政储蓄与文明传 承造成压力，此类研究强调老龄人口的负担性及人口负增长带来的挑 战（Bloom et al.，2003；Maestas et al.，2016；大前研一，2017；梁建章、 黄文政，2018；达雷尔布里克等，2019）。 20 世纪 9

48、0 年代起“积极老龄化”引起了广泛探讨。联合国及世 界卫生组织等国际组织开始倡导“健康老龄化”，后又提出“积极老 1110 this will cause will be more severe. As the human race entered the mid-18th century, and particularly following the Industrial Revolution, life expectancy began a period of unprecedented growth, and the population age structure, which had

49、 re- mained relatively constant for a long time, underwent profound changes, all of which has attracted great attention and theoretical discussion amongst scholars (Angus Deaton, 2014). Modern demography has undergone three major stages of theoretical development since its birth: the first is Malthusian theory, which has continued to evolve since the end of the 18th century to the present date. The second is the population decline theory, developed in the latter years of the 20th century, while the third is “active ageing”, which has been widely discussed and extensively studied