1、 2020.9.9 S04 2020Q213% 29.7%Q315% 1 2021 Q213%Q3 Q2122 29.7%17.7%6.7% 44%77% 24%32% 890%75%Q3 15% 6 1 2021 APP80%87% Q2 Q3Q2Boeing AirBus77% 73%2021 9 202196- -10.8%18.4% ARJ2127 122020 2%2021 7 (RPK-ASK) -5.5%-7.5% 2020Q213% 29.7%17.7%6.7%Q3 15%6 1 2% EPS PE 19A20E 21E 19A 20E 21E 6.28

2、0.17-0.47 0.77 37 NA 8 5.09 0.20-0.38 0.51 25 NA 10 7.52 0.44-0.50 0.65 17 NA 11 48.11 2.010.34 2.31 24 NA 21 12.30 0.54 -0.27 0.44 23 NA 28 Wind 202097 2020.9.9 13% . 1 Q213%48% . 1 13pcts30% . 3 . 5 . 5 80%87% . 7 . 9 . 9 . 10 . 12 . 12 . 14 . 14 . 15 2020.9.9 12020H146.6%57.3%43.4%. 1 2 2020H173.

3、9% 48.1% 50.1%43.6% . 1 32020H181.794.44.1 . 1 42717.1% . 2 5Q224%32%40% . 2 62020H1105%180% . 3 72020H17.413.7pcts . 3 82019H132%2020H119% . 3 9 20205667%7940% . 3 102020H119% . 4 112020H159.3%49.0%56.5%. 4 122020H10.4% . 4 132020H14.14.33.2 . 5 1429.7%17.7%6.7% . 5 15737.6%3699.6 . 5 16890% . 5 17

4、201944.1% . 6 18201952.2% . 6 197ASK41.3%52.1%8.4% . 7 207RPK48.8%58.0%17.7% . 7 21771.7%72.8%82.1% . 7 2270% . 8 252020Q2-5.938.00.24 . 9 262020Q13613925.2 . 10 272020H13.6pcts5.4pcts . 10 28Q2BoeingAirBus77%73% . 10 291-77(ARJ2111) . 10 30 . 11 3120192.7%4.5%6.3%. 12 322019ASK9.4%5.1%10.6% . 12 33

5、ARJ212712 . 12 347 (RPK-ASK)-5.5%-7.5% . 13 35202097APB1.161.24 . 13 36202097HPB0.740.99 . 14 2020.9.9 1 . 8 2 . 11 3 . 15 2020.9.9 1 13% Q213%48% Q2122 81.7 94.485.44.16.7Q2 13.1%121.644.6%3.6%22.4% 62.5% 44%77%9.813.6pcts 6 890% Q2 12020H146.6%57.3% 43.4% 2 2020H173.9% 48.1%50.1%43.6% 32020H181.79

6、4.44.1 -46.6% -54.6% -57.3% -43.4% -48.3% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2019H22020H2YOY 76.7 41.9 26.2 0.79 73.9% 48.1% 50.1% 43.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 () 16.9 31.4 19.4 8.5 5.8 -81.7 -94.4 -85.4 -4.1 -6.8 -120 -10

7、0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2019H12020H1 2020.9.9 2 Q224%32% Q315%2 30% 3355 36.5%456 67%7940%Q2 24%32%40% 890%75% Q315% 42717.1% 5Q224%32%40% 2020H1 105%180%48%74%2020Q1 169FedExUPS 50% Q2 3771 58002351 2020H1105%180% 7.413.7pcts16.4 50.3% 5426 6538 6950 9487 10820 11941 20.5% 6.3% 36.5% 14.1% 10.4%

8、0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 234567 () -30.0% -23.9% -32.4% -40.0% -8.2% -17.2% -15.4% -8.5% -16.1% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Q2H1 2020.9.9 3 62020H1105%180% 72020H17.413.7pcts 13pcts30% 19%Q340% 201025%45%2020H1 19% 2016456 67%7940% 59.3% 61.3% 62.1%61

9、1pcts 2019H132%2020H119% 202045/202120225560/ 2 82019H132%2020H119% 920205667%7 940% / 28.4% 18.5% 4.2% 180.6% 104.9% 161.5% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 150% 180% 210% 4.3% 6.0% 3.0% 14.1% 19.7% 10.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 19H120H1 32.2%32.0% 33.7% 32.2% 19.9% 19.5%19.4% 21.4% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 35% 2019H1

10、2020H1 3.2% 9.8% -13.7% -38.7% -66.9% -66.8% -43.2% -41.8% -40.9% -75% -60% -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 20192020 2020.9.9 4 102020H119% RPK57.8%11%14% 0.4% 2020H1 59.3%49.0%56.5%RPK57.8% 11%14% 10 34.9%0.4%8.9% 45 112020H159.3%49.0% 56.5% 122020H1

11、0.4% 29.7%2020H11.5%11.2 10.27.439.6%35.8%23.0% Q394 6.84713.3pcts3.24.3 39.5% 45.3% 44.1% 40.8% 39.3% 28.7% 25.2% 28.3% 33.4% 31.7% 19.9% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 20000192020H1 -59.3% -49.0% -56.5% -29.9% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 29.6% 34.8% 32.6

12、% -0.4%-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2020.9.9 5 5.928.70.7 23.7(81.7%) 5.0(17.2%) 29.7%17.7%6.7% 132020H14.14.3 3.2 1429.7% 17.7%6.7% 810% 734.1%3910 8.3pcts 890%8 10%ForwardKeys92019 100% 15737.6%3699.6 16890% 4.14 4.33 3.18 0.0033 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 () -131.0 -96.2 -120.3 -92.

13、1 -79.2 -112.2 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 ()() 5061 834 1515 1671 2583 3074 3910 -5.2% -84.5% -71.7% -68.5% -52.6% -42.4% -34.1% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1234567 6538 6950 9483 10820 11941 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 2000

14、 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 34567 () 2020.9.9 6 2020 12154874.4%3 498.4%12367 88 16 2021 2021 17201944.1% pre-flight 18201952.2% pre-flight 7 ASK41.3%52.5%71.7%72.8% 7ASK8.3%82.1%9 15%20%A3206040 2021(RPK-ASK)202020217 (RPK-ASK)-5.5%-7.5% 5.2% 6.0% 10.1% 29.2% 44.1% 5.4% 17.2% 11.4% 1.6% 0.9%

15、35.0% 32.2% 1.6% 2020.9.9 7 19 7ASK41.3%52.1% 8.4% 207RPK48.8%58.0%17.7% / 21771.7%72.8%82.1% 80%87% 76 18 Q3 1 OTA 70%7 82512306APP 5.8% -72.7% -69.0% -72.80% -61.12% -52.05% -43.90% 17.4% -49.7% -35.7% -39.80% -24.39% -13.48% -8.39% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 1234567 -2.9% -80.5% -73.5% -79.20% -6

16、9.10%-64.90% -58.00% 7.1% -65.9% -57.6% -53.40% -37.06% -26.32% -17.71% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 1234567 76.6% 51.4% 56.8% 65.4% 67.50%67.10% 71.70% 82.4% 63.7% 60.9% 70.70% 75.53% 78.05% 82.06% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 1234567 2020.9.9 8 2270% APP 80%87% 82580%87% 280 38%4401

17、36 42%70% 10% 1 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 25 198 262 316 319 0 53 58 53 58 0 4 5 4 5 30 30 30 30 30 55 285 355 403 412 22 111 142 185 178 0 0 0 7 10 131 134 131 134 131 153 245 273 326 319 22 44 66 88 105 30 30 30 30 30 5 3 5 3 5 16 32 48 64 80 6 28 22 28 22 0 0 0 5 5 287 667 799 947 978 370 670 810

18、980 1050 83 3 11 33 72 77.7% 75.9% 71.1%70.3% 59.1% 56.6% 48.2% 45.5% 41.1% 30.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2020.9.9 9 Q24 Q2 37.910.8-5.90.271.31 Q1-82.4-87.2-61.3-8.9-13.9Q2 9 Q315%Q3 232020Q2-5.938.00.24 Q236139 241517 Q2138.966.9 36.19.717.9A+H 160 2020H13.6pcts5.4pcts Q3 10.86 37.9

19、5 -5.9 0.241.36 98.63 83.94 74.11 9.94 6.12 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2020Q22019Q2 2020.9.9 10 24 2020Q13613925.2 252020H13.6pcts5.4pcts 2021 2020Q2 20201-77(ARJ2111)50 2020Q2BoeingAirBus77%73% 20219 2021 2021 26Q2BoeingAirBus77%73% BoeingAirBus 271-77(ARJ2111) 1-7 3771 58002351 138.9 66.9 36.1 17.9

20、 9.7 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 2019Q22020Q2 66.0% 74.8% 78.7% 49.3% 56.9% 69.6% 74.0% 78.8% 54.7% 59.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2019H12020H1 90 20 227 74 0 50 100 150 200 250 2019Q22020Q22019Q22020Q2 8 6 14 5 3 55 1 -1 -3-3 -4 4 -1 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1234567 20192020 2020.9.9

21、11 44%77% 9.813.6pcts16.4 50.3% 96- 10.8% 18.4%Q4 28 Freight Investor Services 94 2020Q1 169FedExUPS 2 2025 20351-2 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 7981682383096 - 2020.9.9 12 20 B737MaxCOVID-192020 2%2021B737Max 20192.7%4.5%6.3%B737 ASK 2019ASK9.4% 5.1%10.6% ASK. ARJ212 7

22、122020 2%2021 29 20192.7% 4.5%6.3% 302019ASK9.4%5.1%10.6% 31ARJ212712 5.4% 7.6% 11.6% 2.7% 6.0% 5.5% 4.7% 4.5% 9.6% 8.5% 6.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 20019 8.6% 9.6% 12.0% 9.4% 8.5% 6.4% 10.5% 5.1% 13.5% 9.6% 8.1% 10.6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 20019 2020.9.9 13 1

23、8 90%75%Q3 1ForwardKeys 92019100% 7 (RPK-ASK) -5.5%-7.5% 327 (RPK-ASK)-5.5%-7.5% 2021 2020H12612021 201823APB1.2H0.740.99 2014A30% 2021 8095 1 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1112 200192020 -12.4% 0.5% 2.3% -0.5% -1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%0.2% -0.5% 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% -4.7%

24、 -9.9% -8.3%-8.4% -9.4% -7.5% -11.1% -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 2020.9.9 14 33202097APB 1.161.24 wind 34202097HPB 0.740.99 wind Q2122 29.7%17.7%6.7%44%77% 24%32%890% 75%Q315% 6 12021 Q2 Q32020Q2BoeingAirBus77%73% 20219 2021 ARJ212712 20202% 2021 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (A)(A) (A) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

25、 (H)(H) (H) 2020.9.9 15 7 (RPK-ASK)-5.5%-7.5% Q213% 29.7%17.7%6.7%Q315% 6 1 2% 3 EPS PE 19A 20E 21E 19A 20E 21E 6.28 0.17 -0.47 0.77 37 NA 8 5.09 0.20 -0.38 0.51 25 NA 10 7.52 0.44 -0.50 0.65 17 NA 11 48.11 2.01 0.34 2.31 24 NA 21 12.30 0.54 -0.27 0.44 23 NA 28 Wind202097 1.()(2020-09-07) 2.()(2020-

26、08-21) 3.() 3 (2020-07-07) 4. (601021)(2020-06-29) 5. (600029)(2020-06-09) 6. () 3(2020-06-01) 7 ()(2020-05-11) 8. (2020-03-09) i ii 612 612 A300 500 20% 5%20% -10%5% 10% 10% -10%10% 10% CLSA group of companies Z20374000CLSA LimitedCL Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd.CLSA Australia Pty Ltd.350159CLSA grou

27、p of companiesCLSA Americas, LLC CLSA AmericasCLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.198703750WCLSA Europe BV CLSA UKCLSA India Private Limited400021Nariman PointDalamal House 8 +91-22-66505050+91-22-22840271U67120MH1994PLC083118 INZ000001735INM000010619INH000001113PT CLSA Sekuritas Indonesia CLSA Securities Japan

28、Co., Ltd.CLSA Securities Korea Ltd.CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd CLSA Philippines Inc.CLSA Securities (Thailand) Limited CLSA group of companiesCLSA Americas1934 15a-6CLSA Americas CLSA group of companies CLSA Americas CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.s.4A1 2005 333435 252736CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd. CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.+65 6416 7888MCI (P) 086/12/2019 CLSA UKCLSA Europe BVCLSA UK CLSA Europe BV CLSA UKCLSA Europe BVII CLSA Australia Pty Ltd (CAPL) (53 139 992 331/350159) CHI-XCAPL CAPL2001 761GCAPLASX All Ordinaries CAPL 2020