1、EffectsofNovelCoronavirus (COVID19)onCivilAviation: EconomicImpactAnalysis Montral,Canada 21April2020 Contents Scenario Building Scenario Analysis Impact on International Passenger Seat Capacity (Supply) Impact on International Passenger Numbers (Demand) Impact on Gross Passenger Operating Revenues

2、of Airlines Summary of Key Impact Indicators Appendix A: Situation Overview B: Summary of Analysis by Other Organizations C: Route Group Level Analysis (both international and domestic passenger traffic) 2 The latest estimates indicate that the possible COVID-19 impact on scheduled international pas

3、senger traffic for the first 9 months of 2020, compared to Baseline (business as usual, originally-planned), would be: V-shaped path (a first sign of recovery in late May) Overall reduction ranging from 41% to 56% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 705 to 963 million passengers Approx

4、. USD 160 to 218 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines U-shaped path (restart in third quarter or later) Overall reduction ranging from 57% to 67% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 961 to 1,117 million passengers Approx. USD 218 to 253 billion potential loss

5、of gross operating revenues of airlines The impacts depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and economic conditions, etc. 3 Estimatedresultsinbrief ScenarioBuilding Asoverallseverityanddurationofthepandemicarestillu

6、ncertain,sixdifferentrecoverypathsunder twoindicativescenariosaredevelopedtoexplorethepotential“shortterm”economicimplicationof theCOVID19pandemic. 4 Illustrativescenarios: Baseline,VshapedandUshaped 5 3 scenarios to assess the possible economic impact of COVID-19: Baseline: counterfactual scenario,

7、 in which the COVID-19 pandemic does not occur, that is, originally-planned or business as usual Scenario 1: V-shaped path, normal shape for recession, a brief period of contraction followed by quick/smooth recovery Scenario 2: U-shaped path, prolonged contraction and muted recovery, possibility of

8、not to return to trend line growth (L-shaped) Analytical focus, for the time being, on: Near-term, i.e. monthly profile from January to September 2020 Scheduled international passenger traffic Scenarios1and2arenotforecastsofwhatismostlikelytohappen.Givena rapidlychangingenvironment,thesescenariosare

9、merelyindicativeofpossible pathsorconsequentialoutcomesoutofmany. Theexactpath(depth,lengthandshape)willdependuponvariousfactors,inter alia,durationandmagnitudeoftheoutbreakandcontainmentmeasures, availabilityofgovernmentassistance,consumerconfidence,andeconomic conditions. Scenarios1and2aredifferen

10、tiatedintermsofsupply(output)anddemand (spending) conditions,mainly,a)thetimingandscaleofairlinecapacitydecline andrecovery,andb)thedegreeofconsumerconfidenceinairtravelthatcanbe translatedintodemandorloadfactor. 6 WhatdoesScenariomean? Previousoutbreaks/pandemicshadaVshaped impactonaviation Source:

11、IATACOVID19UpdatedImpactAssessment(24March2020) TheimpactofCOVID 19hasalready surpassedthe2003 SARSoutbreakwhich hadresultedin reductionofannual RPKsby8%andUSD6 billionrevenuesfor Asia/Pacificairlines. The6month recoverypathof SARSmightnot applytotodays situation. 7 Uncertaintiessurroundingtheoutloo

12、k 8 How long will the pandemic last and what will be the severity levels? How deep and how long will the global recession be? How long will lockdowns and travel restrictions continue? How fast will consumer confidence in air travel be restored? How long can the air transport industry withstand the c

13、urrent finical adversity? Duetoextremeuncertainty,6differentpaths uptill3Q2020areconsidered 9 Baseline (counterfactual, no COVID-19 pandemic ) Originally-planned or business as usual: trend line growth from 2019 level Scenario 1 (V-shaped path, a first sign of recovery in late May) Path 1: Smooth ca

14、pacity recovery to 75% of Baseline level by September but weak demand return Path 1a: Strong capacity rebound to 90% in tandem with quick demand return Path 1b: Slow progression to recover 50% capacity by September with downside risk in demand Scenario 2 (U-shaped path, restart in 3Q or later) Path

15、2: Slow progression of capacity recovery to 40% of Baseline with sluggish demand growth Path 2a: Strong capacity rebound to 70% by September, outpacing demand recovery Path 2b: Prolonged downturn towards September or later with marginal summer adjustments Scenarioassumptions 10 SeatcapacityPassenger

16、loadfactorSeatcapacityPassengerloadfactorSeatcapacityPassengerloadfactor January2020 January2020resultsbyregion/route group January2020resultsbyregion/route group February2020 February2020resultsbyregion/route group February2020resultsbyregion/route group March2020 15to25percentagepointslowerthan Ba

17、seline 25percentagepointslowerthan Baseline April2020 Mostrecentairlinesschedulesfiled withOAGorworldaverageof91% fromBaselinewhicheverissmaller 25percentagepointslowerthan BaselinewithadjustmentofGDP impactbyregion/routegroup May2020 Mostrecentairlinesschedulesfiled withOAGorworldaverageof86%(1 Rou

18、te Online; and airline websites Seat capacity (actual): ICAO ADS-B operational data Load factor: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts (LTF); ICAO statistical reporting forms; IATA economics data; and airline news release Average fare (yield): ICAO-ICM MIDT passenger origin-destination data; and ICAO cos

19、t studies Macroeconomic factors: Income elasticity of demand estimated for ICAO LTF; and IMF economic outlook data ScenarioAnalysis Figuresandestimateshereinissubjecttosubstantialchanges,andwillbeupdatedwiththesituation evolvingandmoreinformationavailable. 12 ImpactonInternationalPassengerSeatCapaci

20、ty(Supply) Priortotheoutbreak,airlineshadplannedtoincreaseseatcapacityby4.2%forthefirst9 monthsof2020,comparedtothesameperiodof2019. Accordingtothelatestestimates,passengerseatcapacitycouldinsteaddropfromtheabove Baselineby41to56%(Scenario1)and57to67%(Scenario2). Thiscapacitylevelwouldbe39%to54%(Sce

21、nario1)and55%to66%(Scenario2)belowthe 2019level. BiggestcapacityreductionisexpectedtobeinEuropeandAsia/Pacific,followedbyNorth America. 13 Source:ICAOADSBoperationaldata,OAGscheduleddataandICAOestimates(Apr Sep2020) Baseline: 4.2%seatcapacityincreasefrom2019 14 Scenarios1 b)domesticwithinmainlandChi

22、na,andc)regionalbetweenmainlandChinaandHongKongSAR,MacaoSARandTaiwanProvince 43 January2020February2020 Country/TerritoryCountry/Territory RussianFederation89,7781%China10,532,21961% Italy65,9711%HongKongSARofChina(CN)2,363,32036% Turkey53,2621%RepublicofKorea1,717,14719% China45,4840%Japan1,592,429

23、15% Morocco42,6842%Thailand1,452,47815% UnitedArabEmirates31,4640%Taiwan,ProvinceofChina(CN)1,446,68623% Iraq29,3263%Singapore807,60812% Albania22,0807%VietNam731,93616% UnitedKingdom21,8880%MacaoSARofChina(CN)721,48964% SouthAfrica21,4761%Philippines646,10418% IranIslamicRepublicof20,8912%UnitedSta

24、tes620,2963% France19,5370%Malaysia448,1728% Poland18,1540%Indonesia426,10210% Romania17,4931%RussianFederation317,8905% Japan16,4490%Cambodia307,9684% UnitedStates13,0670%Turkey277,86821% Indonesia12,1140%Italy268,8463% Bulgaria10,5401%UnitedArabEmirates253,5482% India10,3420%Australia241,2845% Cam

25、bodia10,1581%UnitedKingdom188,8641% Bahamas9,5882%IranIslamicRepublicof169,78218% Denmark8,9420%France157,9981% VietNam8,4890%Myanmar147,48721% Malta7,3721%Germany145,5611% Lebanon7,1821%India116,8232% Bahrain7,1231%Morocco108,1865% Uzbekistan6,5391%Qatar99,3382% Tunisia6,3621%Canada96,2311% Switzer

26、land6,2350%LaoPeoplesDemocraticRepubli71,91021% Czechia5,6420%Finland71,4134% Capacitychangefromoriginally planned Capacitychangefromoriginally planned AsurgeofCOVID19confirmedcasesoccurred inseveralStatesbylateFebruary2020 Source:OAGscheduleddataadjustedbyICAOestimates InFebruary2020,international

27、passengercapacityreducedby 13%,mainlyrelatedtotraffic from/toStatesexperiencingan earlyoutbreakandStates deeplyinterconnectedto China. State/Territorywith100to999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith1,000to9,999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith10,000to49,999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith50,0

28、00ormore confirmedcases* *:CoronavirusDisease2019(COVID19)Situation ReportbyWHO(29February2020) 44 Source:OAGscheduleddataadjustedbyICAOestimates COVID19Pandemicwasdeclaredand acceleratinginMarch2020 InMarch2020,global internationalpassenger capacityreducedby49%, withsignificantreduction notonlyinSt

29、ates experiencinganearly outbreakbutalso worldwide. State/Territorywith100to999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith1,000to9,999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith10,000to49,999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith50,000ormore confirmedcases* *:CoronavirusDisease2019(COVID19)Situation ReportbyWHO(31M

30、arch2020) 45 Country/TerritoryCountry/Territory China14,841,79282%Philippines1,669,45645% Italy6,860,83760%Indonesia1,466,51834% RepublicofKorea6,536,91770%Netherlands1,292,47217% Japan5,837,89451%Canada1,218,38316% Germany5,771,16231%Austria1,200,86430% HongKongSARofChina(CN)5,352,85577%RussianFede

31、ration1,177,70419% UnitedKingdom4,965,29622%Australia1,119,34525% UnitedStates4,950,96919%Portugal1,118,94126% Thailand4,587,42146%Belgium1,060,57231% Taiwan,ProvinceofChina(CN)4,074,43162%Qatar1,041,43921% Spain3,792,14026%Denmark980,21128% UnitedArabEmirates3,400,83326%Israel972,06144% Singapore3,

32、297,43445%Poland967,52024% France3,216,48225%MacaoSARofChina(CN)954,45380% Turkey2,879,27135%Egypt818,04328% VietNam2,599,33655%Morocco762,14531% Malaysia2,500,35542%Sweden761,42524% India2,077,57829%Ireland733,67821% SaudiArabia1,747,38531%Greece635,03934% Switzerland1,691,01728%Czechia610,04837% M

33、arch2020InternationalPassengerCapacity Capacitychangefrom originallyplanned Capacitychangefrom originallyplanned Source:ICAOADSBoperationaldata Airtrafficreductionnolongerlimitedto initialoutbreakcountries Monthlyseatcapacitychangecomparetooriginallyplannedbyregion (totalinternationalanddomestic) 46

34、 Source:ICAOADSBoperationaldata Airtrafficreductionnolongerlimitedto initialoutbreakcountries(2) Monthlyseatcapacitychangecomparedto2019byregion (totalinternationalanddomestic) 47 48 Total air cargo throughout declined by 19% in March 2020 YoY, with a significant withdraw of passenger aircraft belly

35、 cargo capacity while the increase in all-cargo freighters have offset the capacity reduction Preliminary analysis indicates air cargo revenues have dropped 22% from USD 8.3 to 6.5 billion in March 2020 over the same period March2019March2020Change BellyCargo3.492.4031% FreighterCargo1.481.619% Net4

36、.974.0119% MillionsofTonnesTransported Airfreightvolumeshavealsobeendeclining Source:ICAOADSBdata andICAOStatisticalReporting Source:OAGscheduleddataadjustedbyICAOestimates Theworldreached1millionconfirmed COVID19casesinApril2020 InApril2020,global international passengercapacityso farexperiencedby

37、unprecedented91% reduction(estimated) 49 Country/TerritoryCountry/Territory UnitedStates22,915,30088%Malaysia4,947,68485% UnitedKingdom22,305,47190%Portugal4,913,07395% Germany19,318,83192%SaudiArabia4,129,10076% Spain18,028,23593%Australia4,122,76892% China16,683,87695%Mexico4,102,56878% France13,4

38、38,75191%Austria3,810,43491% Italy12,464,50294%Qatar3,737,33580% UnitedArabEmirates10,970,00488%Indonesia3,719,78587% Japan9,491,39688%VietNam3,666,45489% Turkey8,766,22694%Ireland3,564,96891% Thailand8,367,90893%Poland3,437,84878% RepublicofKorea7,960,52586%Belgium3,307,97987% HongKongSARofChina(CN

39、)7,122,20693%Denmark3,273,69289% Netherlands6,928,91889%Greece3,073,24094% Singapore6,589,56793%Philippines2,993,41186% Canada6,276,87090%Sweden2,842,25286% India6,263,03089%Norway2,400,32987% Switzerland5,976,54293%Egypt2,221,94477% RussianFederation5,711,23486%Brazil2,213,42692% Taiwan,ProvinceofC

40、hina(CN)5,400,27785%Israel2,187,79790% Capacitychangefrom originallyplanned Capacitychangefrom originallyplanned April2020InternationalPassengerCapacity State/Territorywith100to999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith1,000to9,999 confirmedcases* State/Territorywith10,000to49,999 confirmedcases* State

41、/Territorywith50,000ormore confirmedcases* *:CoronavirusDisease2019(COVID19)Situation ReportbyWHO(19April2020) AppendixB:SummaryofAnalysisbyOtherOrganizations 50 ACI:AirportwouldloseUSD76billion revenuesin2020 Source:The ImpactofCOVID19ontheAirportBusiness(dated1April2020) https:/aci.aero/wpcontent/

42、uploads/2020/03/200401COVID19EconomicImpactBulletinFINAL1.pdf 51 Africa7732.5%1.535% Asia/Pacific1,46542.1%23.948% Europe89435.0%24.642% LatinAmerica/Caribbean24434.0%4.038% MiddleEast15736.5%5.743% NorthAmerica79037.7%16.949% Total3,62738.1%76.645% Passengernumberbothinterntionaland domesticforfull

43、year2020 Airportrevenuebothaeronauticalandnon aeronauticalforfullyear2020 millionand%changefrom2020businessasusual baselinescenario USDbillionand%changefrom2020businessas usualbaselinescenario Region Source:IATACOVID19UpdatedImpactAssessment(dated14April2020) IATA:AirlineswouldloseUSD314billionreven

44、ues under“3monthlockdown+recession”scenario The analytical difference between ICAO and IATA estimates: Period: 1Q to 3Q 2020 (ICAO) vs. full year 2020 (IATA) Traffic: international only (ICAO) vs. both international and domestic (IATA) Regional break-down: by all traffic from States in each region (

45、ICAO) vs. region of airline registration (IATA) Baseline: originally-planned i.e. 2020 business as usual scenario (ICAO) vs. 2019 level with 2020 airline schedules (IATA) https:/www.iata.org/en/iatarepository/publications/economicreports/covidfourthimpactassessment/ 52 Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Lat

46、inAmerica/Caribbean MiddleEast NorthAmerica Total48%314 49%18 51%24 36%64 51%6 50%113 55%89 Regionofairlineregistration RevenuePassengerKilometres (RPKs)bothinterntionaland domesticforfullyear2020 Grosspassengerrevenueboth interntionalanddomesticfor fullyear2020 yearonyear%changefrom 2019level USDbi

47、llion, comparedto2019level UNWTO:AlossofUSD300to450billionin internationaltourismreceiptsin2020 Source:ImpactAssessmentoftheCOVID19OutbreakonInternationalTourism(UNWTO) 53 https:/www.unwto.org/news/internationaltourismarrivalscouldfallin2020 Source:IMFWordEconomicOutlook(April2020) IMF:Globaleconomy

48、isprojectedtocontract sharplyby3%in2020 54 TheProjectionsassumethatthepandemicfadesinthesecondhalfof2020and containmenteffortscanbegraduallyunwound https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weoapril2020 Source:OECDEvaluatingtheInitialImpactofContainmentMeasures(27March2020) OECD:Sharp

49、decreaseinconsumersexpenditures forairtravelduetocontainmentmeasures 55 AppendixC:RouteGroupLevelAnalysis Theanalysiswillbeupdatedandexpanded withthesituationevolvingandmoreinformationavailable. 56 57Source:ICAOestimatesbasedonICAOADSB,OAG,ICAOICMMIDT,ICAOLTF,ICAOStatisticalReporting,IATAEconomics,andIMFEconomicOutlook Estimatedresultsbyroutegroupfor1Q2020 (comparedtoBaseline) Jan2020Feb2020Mar2020Jan2020Feb2020 Mar2020*Jan2020Feb2020 Mar2020* AfricaDomestic11%8%36%4474722,2584447224 AfricaAsia/PacificInternational4%19%46%99 Africa