1、 1 1 International tourism faces deepest crisis in history The world is facing an unprecedented global health, social and economic emergency due to the COVID- 19 pandemic. Travel and tourism is among the most affected sectors. In an unprecedented shock to the tourism sector, the COVID-19 pandemic ha

2、s cut international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2020 to a fraction of what they were a year ago. Available data points to a double-digit decrease of 22% in Q1 2020, with arrivals in March down by 57%. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about USD 80 bill

3、ion in export revenues from international tourism. By regions, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of COVID-19, saw a 35% decrease in arrivals in Q1 2020. The second-hardest hit was Europe with a 19% decline, followed by the Americas (-15%), Africa (-12%) and the Middle East

4、(-11%). Current scenarios for the year point to declines of 58% to 78% in international tourist arrivals in 2020, depending on the speed of the containment, the duration of travel restrictions and the re-opening of national borders, although the outlook remains highly uncertain. This would translate

5、 into a drop of 850 million to 1.1 billion international arrivals and a loss of US$ 860 billion to US$ 1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism, the largest declines in the historical series. The plunge in international travel puts 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk. International To

6、urist Arrivals(% change) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) * Provisional data 444 2 6 7 -22 -19 -35 -15 -12 -11 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 WorldEuropeAsia and the Pacific AmericasAfricaMiddle East 2019 2020* January - March Contents - COVID-19 Related travel restrictions 3 - Inte

7、rnational tourist arrivals, January-March 2020 3 - Regional insights 7 - Forward-looking scenarios for 2020 12 - International tourism receipts and prospects 14 - Evaluation of the impact of the COVID-19 on tourism by the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts 16 - Economic environment 18 - Looking into pre

8、vious crises 19 - Tourism and COVID-19: Opportunities and Challenges 21 Statistical Annex Annex-1 to Annex-25 Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 2 The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is the United Nations specialized agency mandated with the promotion of responsible, sustainabl

9、e and universally accessible tourism. UNWTOs membership includes 159 countries, 6 Associate Members, two Permanent Observers, and over 500 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities. Copyright 2020 World Tourism Org

10、anization C/ Poeta Joan Maragall 42, 28020 Madrid, Spain UNWTO World Tourism Barometer ISSN: 1728-9246 Published and printed by the World Tourism Organization, Madrid, Spain - First printing: 2020 (version 15/05/20) All rights reserved The designations employed and the presentation of material in th

11、is publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. All

12、 UNWTO publications are protected by copyright. Therefore and unless otherwise specified, no part of a UNWTO publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilm, scanning, without prior permi

13、ssion in writing. UNWTO encourages dissemination of its work and is pleased to consider permissions, licensing, and translation requests related to UNWTO publications. For permission to photocopy UNWTO material, please refer to the UNWTO website at www.unwto.org/publications The contents of this iss

14、ue may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. Please do not post electronic copies on publicly accessible websites. UNWTO encourages you to include a link to www.unwto.org/market-intelligence Wor

15、ld Tourism Organization C/ Poeta Joan Maragall 42, 28020 Madrid, Spain Tel (34) 91 567 81 00 / Fax (34) 91 131 17 02 infounwto.org - www.unwto.org Follow us on: About the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) that m

16、onitors short- term tourism trends on a regular basis to provide global tourism stakeholders with up-to-date analysis on international tourism. The information is updated several times a year and includes an analysis of the latest data on tourism destinations (inbound tourism) and source markets (ou

17、tbound tourism). The Barometer also includes a Confidence Index based on the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts survey, which provides an evaluation of recent performance and short-term prospects on international tourism. The UNWTO Secretariat wishes to express its gratitude to those who have contribute

18、d to the production of this UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, in particular to institutions that supplied data, and to the members of the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts for their valuable feedback and analysis. This report was prepared by the UNWTO Tourism Market Intelligence and Competitiveness Depart

19、ment, under the supervision of Sandra Carvo, Chief of the Department. Contributors include (in alphabetical order): Fernando Alonso, Michel Julian, and Javier Ruescas. For more information including copies of previous issues, please visit: www.e-unwto.org/loi/wtobarometereng We welcome your comments

20、 and suggestions at baromunwto.org. Data collection for this issue was closed at the end of April 2020. The next issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer with more comprehensive results is scheduled to be published on August/September 2020. Full document is available free of charge in the UNWTO el

21、ibrary at www.e-unwto.org. This release is available in English, while the Statistical Annex is provided in English, French, Spanish and Russian. Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 3 3 COVID-19 Related Travel Restrictions COVID-19 has placed the whole world on lockdown For the first time in history, 100% of

22、 worldwide destinations have introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic, whether by totally or partially closing their borders for tourists, suspending international flights or closing of borders in a more differentiated manner. The spread of COVID-19 cases to an increasing number of

23、 countries was followed by a growing volume of travel restrictions. When on 30 January 2020 the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), 11 destinations had already implemented travel restrictions directed at travellers coming from China

24、. On 11 March 2020, when WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, a total of 85 destinations had different categories of travel restrictions in place. Two weeks after the declaration of the PHEIC, the number of destinations with restrictions more than doubled, from 85 to 181 destinations. From 24 March to

25、20 April 2020, all remaining destinations introduced travel restrictions bringing the total to 217 destinations, representing 100% of destinations worldwide. At present, 25% of all destinations worldwide have travel restrictions in place for at least a 3-month period and about 40% for at least a 2-m

26、onth period. There are currently 156 destinations worldwide that have completely closed their borders for international tourism. As of 27 April 2020, while some destinations have started to lift national lockdown and quarantine measures, no destination has yet lifted or eased its international trave

27、l restrictions (UNWTO, COVID-19 Related Travel Restrictions, A Global Review for Tourism, third report as of 8 May 2020, https:/www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-world-tourism-remains-at-a-standstill-as-100-of-countries- impose-restrictions-on-travel) International tourist arrivals, January-March 2020 Int

28、ernational tourism down 22% in Q1 2020 amid COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented disruption to travel and tourism, both domestic and international, bringing destinations and outbound markets worldwide to a standstill. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) saw a de

29、crease of 22% in the first quarter of 2020 over the same period of last year, according to data reported so far by destinations. Arrivals in the month of March were down 57% following the start of lockdowns in many countries, widespread travel restrictions and the shutdown of airports and national b

30、orders, amid measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus. This represents a loss of 67 million international arrivals in the first three months of 2020 compared to the same period of last year, which translates into US$80 billion in lost international tourism receipts (export revenues). By reg

31、ions, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of COVID-19, saw a 35% decrease in arrivals in Q1 2020. The second-hardest hit was Europe with a 19% decline, followed by the Americas (-15%), Africa (-12%) and the Middle East (-11%). Although Asia and the Pacific shows the highest i

32、mpact in both relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact so far in Europe is also quite high in volume (-22 million). International Tourist Arrivals by month (% change)World(million) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

33、Jun.Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2017 2018 2019 2020* Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 4 At the subregional level, North-East Asia (-40%) and South-East Asia (-33%) suffered the largest fall. Arrivals in Oceania, South Asia, Southern and Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean were down 20% or more. All i

34、ndustry indicators at historic lows The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a major disruption in air travel, reflected in the cancellation of flights, grounding of airplanes and the collapse of carriers under financial strain. The international air passenger market plummeted in February driven by Asia and

35、 the Pacific and by widespread border closures and travel restrictions in March. In terms of international passenger seat capacity, ICAO data shows a sharp 38% drop in March, with massive double-digit decreases across regions. International passenger numbers could decline 44% to 80% in 2020 accordin

36、g to ICAO. IATA points to a decline of 22% in international passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) in January-March, with a 56% drop in March, similar to the decline in international tourist arrivals. IATA forecasts global air passenger demand to end 2020 at -48%. According

37、 to ForwardKeys, air bookings recorded a massive 80% decline worldwide in Q1 2020. Asia and the Pacific (-98%) suffered the biggest drop and started to decline earlier, with the introduction of travel restrictions in China. Air bookings from Europe (-76%), the Americas (-67%), Africa and the Middle

38、East (-65%) all had severe declines in the first quarter of 2020. STR indicates that the hotel industry recorded large double-digit declines in revenue per available room (RevPAR) across all world regions in March 2020, with Asia (-66.7%) and Europe (-61.6%) posting the biggest decreases. Internatio

39、nal tourist arrivals (monthly change, %) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 5 5 International tourist numbers could fall 60 to 80% in 2020 Prospects for 2020 have been downgraded several times since the outbreak of the pandemic and uncertainty continues to dominate

40、. Forward-looking scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These are dependent on the speed of containment, the duration of travel restrictions and the gradual re- opening of borders, though uncertainty still remains high. This is by far the worst result for inter

41、national tourism in the historical series since 1950 and would put an abrupt end to a 10-year period of sustained growth since the 2009 economic and financial crisis. This huge loss of demand for international travel could translate into a drop of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists, a

42、nd a loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism. As a result, 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs would be put at risk. This is particularly critical as around 80% of all tourism businesses are small-and- medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Considerable challenges rema

43、in ahead, starting with the unknown duration of the pandemic and travel restrictions, in a context of global economic recession. The global economy is projected to contract sharply by 3% in 2020, weighing on the travel and tourism outlook, though it is expected to pick up in 2021, according to the I

44、nternational Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook, April 2020). Sentiment expressed by the UNWTO Panel of Experts points to a start of the recovery of international tourism demand by the fourth quarter of 2020 and mostly in 2021. According to Panel Experts from around the world, domestic demand wou

45、ld recover faster than international demand. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, compared to business travel. Countries around the world are implementing a wide range of measures to mitigate the impact of th

46、e COVID-19 outbreak and to stimulate the recovery of the tourism sector (see detailed information at https:/www.unwto.org/international-tourism-and- covid-19) International Tourist Arrivals(% change over same period of the previous year) Middle East Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) AfricaE

47、uropeAsia and the PacificAmericas 6 -1 4 8 8 6 7 3 19 4 -1 -2 2 11 8 4 -22 -17 -19 -15 -22 -40 -33 -23 -22 -13 -20 -15 -19 -18 -10 -11 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 20192020* January - March Volume 18 Issue 2 May 2020 6 International Tourist Arrivals by (Sub)region Monthly/quarterly data series ShareC

48、hangePercentage change over same period of the previous year (million)(%)(%)2020*2019 20019*2019*18/17 19*/18YTDQ1Jan.Feb.Mar.Q1Q2Q3Q4 World9521,3331,4081,4621005.73.8-22.4-22.42.0-8.6-56.73.35.33.22.7 Advanced economies 553.14.02.0-28.9-28.9-1.3-14.3-64.61.93.81.70.2 Emerging

49、economies 43760164768646.97.76.0-16.2-16.25.0-3.2-48.54.67.25.25.4 By UNWTO regions: Europe487.0676.6715.9744.350.95.84.0-19.1-19.15.65.7-59.92.24.53.45.0 Northern Europe57.079.178.779.95.5-0.61.5-17.2-17.24.03.9-52.30.60.52.92.5 Western Europe154.4192.7200.2204.314.03.92.1-19.2-19.27.07.1-62.7-1.74.72.54.2 Central/Eastern Eur.98.6136.9148.5156.210.78.55.2-14.9-14.95.76.2-55.04.84.42