1、A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 1ATLANTIC COUNCIL A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network John T. Watts A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 2ATLANTIC COU

2、NCIL Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security mission statement: The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcrofts

3、legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. Emergent Futures Lab mission statement: The mission of the Atlantic Coun

4、cils Emergent Futures Lab is to explore emergent issues that may seem fringe, implausible, or unpredictable today, but which have the possibility to cause significant disruption in the future. Emergent challenges can be detected but not yet fully discerned. They do not necessarily follow predictable

5、 trendlines, and therefore cannot be extrapolated solely from an analysis of plausible or likely current or near-term events. But they are likely to be disproportionately disruptive and impactful. The Emergent Futures Lab seeks to prepare for these eventualities by using a range of creative and non-

6、 traditional methodologies that explore the what-ifs. While remaining anchored by practical real-world constraints, these methodologies open the aperture of possible future outcomes. A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network iATLANTIC COUNCIL iSBN-13: 978-1

7、-61977-088-1 Cover photo: 5G Sunset Cell Tower: Cellular communications tower for mobile phone and video data transmission. Photo Credit: IStock from Getty Images, Bill Oxford ( This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on intellectual independence. The auth

8、or is solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this reports conclusions. March 2020 A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network John

9、T. Watts A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network iiATLANTIC COUNCIL A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network iiiATLANTIC COUNCIL Table of Contents Acknowledgements iv Executive Summary 1 Recommendations 3 5G: Ri

10、sks and Opportunities 4 State of Competition and Risk 6 A New Way to Manage Risk 8 5G in Context 9 Connected Life 9 New Approaches, New Opportunities 9 The Value of 5G 11 The Challenge 12 The Vision 13 A Framework for Action 14 The Role of Governments 14 On Technology 15 On the Market 16 Strategic i

11、nvestment 17 Conclusion 18 About the Author 19 A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network iVATLANTIC COUNCIL Acknowledgements This report represents a wide ranging effort of review, consultation and discussion. id like to thank those industry experts who pro

12、vided insight as well as the contributions of my Atlantic Council colleagues, Robert Manning, Claire Chan, Shaun Ee, Trey Herr and William Loomis. A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 1ATLANTIC COUNCIL Executive Summary R ecent events have seen an acce

13、leration in the rise of reemerging great powers. This has had a profound impact on global economic, technological, and polit- ical assumptions and has created new technological realities. The potential impact and implications of artificial in- telligence (Ai), biotechnology innovation, and the dark

14、sides of social media have raised new concerns for social norms. No issue is more emblematic of the competition between lib- eral, free-market nations and authoritarian command-econ- omy principles than the evolution of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications. Generational shifts between cellular t

15、elecommunications networks have profound implications for national and global economies. As data become increasingly central to every aspect of a modern economy, the shift to the next genera- tion of cellular networks will be of even greater significance. The Chinese government identified the import

16、ance of this transition and has, for years, been aggressively investing around the world to be the purveyor of 5G infrastructure that will carry that data in the coming decades. Chinese-backed firms are currently better positioned to exploit the vast opportunity that 5G represents more ef- fectively

17、 than corporations within free markets, for several reasons. The most significant is the high infrastructure cost of legacy cellular models and uncertain consumer demand in the short term. Capital costs are driven predominately by the technical requirements of 5G, whichin return for far higher speed

18、s and ultra-low latencyrequire new hard- ware to be installed in many more locations than previous networks. Moreover, the legacy infrastructure model relied on proprietary and incompatible hardware components that are best suited to large, single-manufacture companies that can provide comprehensive

19、 end-to-end solutions. While consumer demand is predicted to be high, busi- nesses are cautious in deploying such large amounts of money for unproven speculative demand. The lack of a concrete user base creates an opening that vertically in- tegrated Chinese companies, heavily backed by the state, a

20、re exploiting by deploying the 5G technology and services at a discount of about 25 percent, along with loss-leading financing terms. Given that end-to-end network solutions can cost $10100 billion, or more, 25-percent discounts have a major impact. While the 25-percent discount is financially entic

21、ing, the longer-term consequences are often hidden, and can in- clude vulnerability to foreign espionage, economic lever- age, and forced compliance to conditions underpinned by authoritarian principles. For the Chinese government, the financial cost is a small investment in return for potential con

22、trol of the worlds data backbone for the next several decades. The reality is that questions revolving around security, as defined from the perspective of traditional “cyber” or “net- work security,” are ancillary to the critical challenge. if a na- tion builds a telecommunications network with equi

23、pment supplied from Chinese tech giants such as Huawei or ZTE, those networks will inherently be subject to Chinese laws that require compliance with many principles anathema to free-market, liberal views. Moreover, these networks, by de- sign, must be managed and maintained by large services organi

24、zations, likely staffed by a vast workforce of Chinese citizens, who also must comply with Chinese law and can provide local human intelligence back to the Chinese state. These are terms that countries should not have to accept, and to which their citizens should not be involuntarily subjected. An o

25、pen, innovative, safe, and reliable alternative is needed, so that people have a realistic option that allows them to freely communicate and consume information. 5G is emblematic of the competition between the new au- thoritarianism and free-market, liberal principles. China has executed its plan we

26、ll over the last five years by driving the standards discussion, developing the leading vertically integrated solution, deploying national export finance to subsidize their offerings, and building the largest and most effective services organization in the market. Free-market economies have spent fa

27、r less on research and develop- ment (R they must act now or face irrelevancy. This study lays out a vision for a global 5G network that satisfies the values of the United States and like-minded partners and is in the best interests of the global popula- tion. it lays out the key issues and challeng

28、es to achieving that vision and then presents an initial framework of specific actions to achieve that end state, such as supporting the deployment of more than $100 billion in 5G technology and A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 2ATLANTIC COUNCIL se

29、rvices; improving research and development; and reduc- ing costs with innovative approaches, such as virtualization and the use of software to replace hardware. After months of discussions about these issues with indus- try experts, global financial organizations, and government officials, a clear f

30、ramework emerged for the organization of free-market nations with free-market principles. The critical point is that a competitive technical approach and a geopolit- ical partnership must be joined to meet an integrated author- itarian strategy. Fortunately, new cellular network models are emerging

31、that have the potential to unlock less structured and more innovative approaches that favor free-market players. From the outset, free-market economies across the globe need to partner to lay out principles that highlight the ways in which 5G can be developed to advance Western liberal valuesespecia

32、lly freedom of expressionand provide for the consistent expression of the importance of these principles for emerging economies. Through these partner- ships, free-market players should develop export-finance vehicles to provide for financing options that compete with authoritarian finance activity.

33、 in conjunction with export finance, new technical ap- proaches should support the development of architec- tures and technologies that can more easily take advantage of the iterative nature of innovation in free-market economies. The Open Radio Access Network (ORAN) is a critical step in moving tow

34、ard new network models that favor Western com- panies, but greater support for collaboration to advance the iterative deployment of 5G telecommunications networks is needed. Small-batch silicon fabrication sites, designed to en- able faster iterative testing of new silicon designs, would also suppor

35、t free-market development approaches. These sites could also explore and build out alternative architectures, including virtualized or cloud-first technologies, to reduce dependence on high-cost hardware, in the same way that Rakuten is deploying 5G in Japan. Free-market economies must partner aroun

36、d a small set of idealsnamely, that the fundamental freedoms of citi- zens of many nations must be able rely on the safety and security of their communications. These ideals should not and cannot be impeded by discounted infrastructure. A failure to address the potential mortgaging of these free- do

37、ms, because said freedoms have heretofore been as- sumptions is the essential error authoritarian regimes are relying on. The reality is that there are technical means, approaches to partnering, available financing and the abil- ity to build companies to address this strategy. First and foremost, fr

38、ee-market economies must recognize that 5G is just one large and strategic competition about the ideals that free-market nations must defend, both at home and in developing nations. The innovation of the free market must be unlocked, through excellent technical approaches and, most critically, throu

39、gh a clear mutual partnership with long-standing allies. A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 3ATLANTIC COUNCIL Recommendations 1) Ensure laws and technical regulations align to prevent fracturing of the market. in the US context, quickly addressing sp

40、ectrum issues by freeing sub-6 spectrum; and establishing regular forums for dialogue and information sharing across all like-minded nations that will share market characteristics; domestically through a commission of all stakeholders; and internationally through a focus on 5G issues in existing par

41、tnership dialogues and potentially new technol- ogy-focused coordination forums. 2) Encourage and accelerate innovation through supporting commercial infrastructure in free-market economies. supporting the development of innovative technologies and approaches across the value chain from ORAN to virt

42、ualized infrastructures through US government purchases and research grants; developing testbed-alternative structures built on virtualized models and cloud-first technologies to reduce the dependence on high-cost hardware, such as the proposed Rakuten-backed network in Japan; establishing a 5G Cent

43、er of Excellence; creating testbeds to drive development of new applications and use cases, while encouraging commercial in- vestment by enhancing, enlarging, and opening up existing sites (specifically the National Security Agencys (NSA) Silicon Processing Lab and BAE Systems Manassas facility) for

44、 quicker, iterative silicon design and testing, utilizing public-private partnerships where practicable; and identifying facilitiessuch as large military bases, large government offices, and federally funded re- search-and-development center (FFRDC) campuseswhere startups can experiment with applica

45、tions and tools that could be scaled up to wider use; and establishing a National Manufacturing innovation initiative. 3) Build out an integrated international export-finance capability to compete with authoritarian or planned state- driven economy initiatives. sharing the burden of competing with c

46、ontrol-economy companies and policies in allied and developing markets; developing a coordinated, synchronized strategy among select allies and partners, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS); and developing expo

47、rt-finance vehicles, including through aid and Overseas Private investment Corporation (OPiC) investments, to provide a practical alternative to authoritarian underpinned solutions and assist developing na- tions in building the foundations of digital economies with the same values and standards exp

48、ected in devel- oped ones. A Framework for an Open, Trusted, and Resilient 5G Global Telecommunications Network 4ATLANTIC COUNCIL 5G: Risks and Opportunities 1 Value, in this instance, means not only direct revenue generated for technology developers and network providers but also the new ways of un

49、dertaking businessindeed, new businesses and industries themselvesthat will be created by the capabilities that these new ways of communication enable. it also means benefits that are more important but harder to quantify. The ultra-low latency will be critical, for instance, in enabling widespread adoption of autonomous cars, which may lead to drastic reductions in road deaths. Greater connectivity may reduce the need for travel at all, again reducing road deaths and congestion. Mohanbir Sawhney, “Perspectives: Dont Hold Your Breath for 5G. Most of Us