1、1 The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented and tragic global health crisis. To contain COVID-19, governments have implemented strict lockdowns and curbed mobility, stalling economies and leading to a potential global economic and financial crisis. The Asian Development Bank (A

2、DB) estimates that the global economy could suffer between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion in lossesequivalent to 6.4% to 9.7% of global gross domestic product.1 Policy makers are grappling with the often-competing interests of managing the public health risk and limiting the scale of the economic d

3、amage. Implementing the emergency response to COVID-19 has rightly taken priority. However, as developing member countries (DMCs) begin to emerge from the lockdowns and plan their recovery, attention must return to addressing the climate crisis and building resilience. We do not have the time or the

4、 financing to deal with each crisis separately. The impact of climate change is already being felt, and is becoming more severe every year. Pre-COVID-19 analysis 1 Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2020. An Updated Assessment of the Economic Impact of COVID-19. Manila. https:/www.adb.org/publications/up

5、dated-assessment-economic-impact-covid-19. 2 Global Commission on Adaptation. 2019. Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience. Washington DC. https:/gca.org/global-commission-on-adaptation/report. 3 United Nations Environment Programme. 2019. Emissions Gap Report 2019. Nairobi. h

6、ttps:/www.unenvironment.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2019/. COVID-19 RECOVERY A Pathway to a Low-Carbon and Resilient Future Climate Crisis 1 . 5 - 2 C c o m p a t i b l e B u s i n e s s a s u s u a l COVID-19 Crisis Recovery 2015 Transformation Response L o w - Ca r b o n R e s i l i e n t

7、 R e c overy showed that climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030. By 2050, it could depress growth in global agriculture yields by up to 30%, and result in additional costs to coastal urban areas of more than $1 trillion each year.2 Current global emission red

8、uction commitments under the Paris Agreement are also insufficient, and would lead to a temperature rise of 3.2C this centurywell over the 1.5C target.3 Compounding this predicament, COVID-19 has exposed gaps in social protection systems and wider policies for delivering public goods, and has highli

9、ghted the underlying drivers of vulnerabilitypoverty, inequality, limited social safety nets, weak health systems, and structural gender inequality, among others. It has also heightened awareness of all types of risks, and made a strong case for adopting risk-informed decision making. There is an ur

10、gent need to address vulnerabilities and mainstream resilience to manage future shocks, including increasing climate- and disaster-related shocks. Paris Agreement Sendai Framework Sustainable Development Goals 2 Beyond the emergency COVID-19 response, countries need to plan for the medium-term recov

11、ery phase, including economic stimulus measures, and possibly wider accompanying reforms; and a longer-term transformation phase that could see wide-ranging changes to systems, institutions, and policies. Countries face an enormous challenge in designing and financing this recovery. Low- and middle-

12、income countries have limited fiscal space to respond, and many will need substantial international support (in addition to support already received), with implications for debt and fiscal positions. Recovery packages also need to be flexible to accommodate the uncertainty around the future of the p

13、andemic, the potential for future waves, and the timeline for developing a vaccine. In this context, countries may find it challenging to consider long-term benefits over short-term payoffs. Governments and international finance institutions are set to mobilize unprecedented fundingat least $10 tril

14、lionto tackle and recover from the COVID-19 crisis,4 and decisions made now on how this money is spent will influence systems and institutions, create assets, and define development directions that will last well into the future. Although governments are under intense pressure to embark on the recov

15、ery, they must learn from the lessons COVID-19 has already delivered, and avoid favoring business-as-usual approaches, or worse, rolling back existing environmental standards. This approach could lock in decades of high-carbon and 4 The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 2020. NCE Key Mes

16、sages Pack: Special Edition on COVID-19. Washington DC. unsustainable development, deepening existing inequalities. Instead, governments should use the recovery to recalibrate their development pathways. The experiences gained from dealing with COVID-19 strengthen the case for scaling up actions to

17、deal with other imminent crises, such as climate change and disasters. SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS FROM A LOW-CARBON AND RESILIENT RECOVERY Adopting a low-carbon and resilient recovery does not demand economic compromise and does not necessarily require an increase in total investment (beyond what would ot

18、herwise have occurred). There is a long list of possible COVID-19 recovery interventions that support low-carbon development and build climate and disaster resilience. Among these are direct investment, policy reform, and capacity building (i.e., hard and soft measures) (see examples in Box 1). Very

19、 few of these interventions are new; some are already being implemented in a number of countries, and others may have been assessed and turned down or delayed. However, when considered in the context of the COVID-19 recovery, perceptions of risk and the importance of managing it may change, or the w

20、ay in which the intervention would be implemented may itself be affected. There are new drivers for these actions, as many recovery interventions that are desirable in the context of COVID-19 recovery can also Countries have an unprecedented opportunity to use the required state interventions and ac

21、companying stimulus to support a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient future; tackle the climate crisis; and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. Governments can recalibrate their priorities in the context of changing perceptions of risks, including climate and disaster risk, and improve sy

22、stems, raise standards, and pursue innovative solutions. With a clear vision, countries can use the recovery to drive investments and behavioral changes that will reorient their economies toward a more strategic low-carbon trajectory, while simultaneously addressing underlying vulnerabilities and st

23、rengthening resilience. Adopting a low-carbon and resilient recovery can generate economic benefits, create employment, increase food and energy security, and have strong health co-benefits. Strong climate action has the potential to: GENERATE over 65 million new low-carbon jobs by 2030 DELIVER at l

24、east $26 trillion in net global economic benefits AVOID 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution a Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 2018. The New Climate Economy. The New Growth Agenda. Washington DC. https:/newclimateeconomy.report/2018/the-new-growth-agenda/ 3 improve climate and d

25、isaster resilience or drive low-carbon development, thus delivering economic and social benefits in addition to climate and resilience benefits. Designing a low-carbon and resilient COVID-19 recovery will also help ADBs DMCs implement their commitments under key global agreements including the Paris

26、 Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 20152030, and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. NEED TO IDENTIFY MEDIUM-TERM RECOVERY AND LONG-TERM TRANSFORMATION INTERVENTIONS Some recovery interventions may do well in the short term, but not be sustainable in the long term

27、unless accompanied by policy or institutional changes. Experience from the Given the scale of the crises, and the different phases of recovery, countries will need to implement a package of recovery interventions that not only collectively provide the required stimulus but also address underlying ba

28、rriers to ensure that changes are sustained. Countries must identify appropriate low-carbon and resilient interventions, potential sources of financing, and the supporting policy and institutional changes required for long-term transformation and sustainability of recovery measures. 5 Barbier, E. 20

29、10. Green Stimulus Is Not Sufficient for a Global Green Recovery. VoxEU.org. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. https:/voxeu.org/article/urgently-needed-global-green-new-deal. labor market programs to protect natural assets and green infrastructure; health projects promoting disaster prepa

30、redness planning (e.g., long-term improvements in post- disaster disease surveillance systems); construction of health facilities to disaster and climate resilience standards; technical and vocational education projects to promote low-carbon industries and resilient livelihoods; energy efficiency sc

31、hemes, including support for retrofits (e.g., low-interest loans), construction of low-energy buildings, and skill development; improvements in regional cooperation for a more sustainable food supply; financial incentives, preferential loans, and grants for low-carbon and resilience-building program

32、s, e.g., energy-efficient roofing and residences, low-cost housing, circular economy; capacity building of grassroots womens groups to prepare them for disasters and emergencies; rural green infrastructure projects, such as grid expansion and off-grid rural electrification; rural low-carbon househol

33、d programs, such as clean cooking programs (biogas capture, efficient wood- burning stoves) and solar lighting; and improvements in climate-friendly agriculture value chains and sustainable food supply management programs. Box 1: Examples of Low-Carbon and Resilience-Building Recovery Interventions

34、Low-carbon and resilient recovery interventions may involve direct investments, policy reform, or capacity build- ing, or a combination of these. Among these measures are the following: Source: Asian Development Bank. Global Financial Crisis of 2008 provides important context. Only around 16% of the

35、 global fiscal stimulus in 20082009 was dedicated to “green” measures and almost all of this was in G20 countries.5 Most of these measures achieved short- term goals such as generating jobs, boosting renewable energy and energy efficiency investment, or restoring natural environments. However, many

36、countries did not introduce market reforms, develop complementary policy, or remove prevailing economic incentives that encouraged emission generation and environmental degradation; for example removing fossil fuel subsidies, or introducing carbon and environmental taxation. As a result, the stimulu

37、s packages, once withdrawn, did not have a lasting impact. Countries should adopt a holistic approach to designing robust recovery plans that focus on sustainable economic recovery, and make the systemic changes required to avoid experiencing similar losses in future crises (see Box 2). 4 1. Define

38、a clear vision for a recovery that leads to a climate and disaster STEP 3: Identify opportunities for national and subnational policies and plans to support a low-carbon and resilient recovery. The recovery process can leverage existing policies and plans to align recovery packages with existing cli

39、mate and disaster investment priorities identified in the countries NDCs (including the current updating process), National Adaptation Plans, and National Disaster Risk Reduction Plans. Associated national or subnational climate and disaster risk reduction plans, as well as climate investment plans

40、and pipelines, can be analyzed to identify activities and investments that could potentially be brought forward or expanded as part of the stimulus package (e.g., those related to mitigation, adaptation, disaster risk management, and equity issues). There may also be scope for matching existing comm

41、itment focal areas with recovery package components. STEP 4: Develop an assessment framework for identifying and prioritizing a package of interventions that support recovery while promoting low-carbon and resilient development. Countries can develop an assessment framework to ensure a structured an

42、d comprehensive process of evaluating selected recovery interventions that promote low-carbon and resilient development against their defined characteristics for a “good recovery.” The framework will differ from country to country, depending on the specific circumstances in a developing member count

43、ry and on the countrys objectives and approach to recovery. STEP 5: Consider conditionality stipulations in cases where “brown”a recovery interventions are supported. Investments in “brown” measures may be necessary to provide short-term relief or to meet medium-term objectives. In these circumstanc

44、es, countries should design conditionalities to ensure that the investments transition toward “green,” and that the support aligns with the long-term vision they defined in Step 1. Conditionalities that could be applied include commitments to reduce emissions, or plan for net zero; and measures to e

45、nsure that funds support workers and the creation of good-quality jobs, that recipients invest in skill development for a low-carbon and resilient future, and that funds are also used to build more resilient and lower-carbon supply chains. STEP 1: Define a clear vision for a recovery that leads to a

46、 climate- and disaster-resilient future. A clear vision will build confidence, ensure a unified approach to the recovery, and allow the definition of medium-term and long-term objectives. With this vision, countries can define principles to guide the recovery, such as the following: putting people a

47、nd their health first, to ensure that no one is left behind; taking a “build back better” approach to stabilizing the economy, promoting equitable growth and investments that benefit all, and strengthening supply chains; promoting a transformational shift to a low-carbon and resilient development pa

48、thway (and long-term “net zero”) and supporting a Just Transition, where benefits are shared equally.; supporting investments that contribute to the productive asset base for the future; and committing to policy reforms, institutional change, and capacity building to sustain the results of building

49、back better and adopting transformational change. STEP 2: Understand the drivers for integrating low-carbon and resilience considerations into recovery. Countries should have a clear understanding of how and why a low-carbon and resilient recovery will help them achieve the vision they defined in Step 1. This includes a better understanding of negative drivers, such as how COVID-19 has made a difference in their current and future exposure and vulnerability to climate and disaster risks; affected different groups, sectors, and regions; e