1、FI T FOR NE T-ZERO: 55 Tech Quests to accelerate Europes recovery and pave the way to climate neutrality 2 3 AC K NOWL EDG E M EN T S Audun Abelsnes, Techstar Magali Anderson, LafargeHolcim Pablo Araya Kroff, Suez Christian Askvik-Hansen, BKK Telmo Baltazar, European Commission George Beers, Wagenin

2、gen University Research Sonja Berlijn, Statnett Edelio Bermejo, LafargeHolcim Serge Besanger, European Institute of Innovation Economic impacts in terms of investment needs and turnover generated; Jobs created or transformed in Europe, including direct and indirect jobs for domestic and export marke

3、ts. These results were calculated4 at both a project-level as well as estimated according to the projected market sizes in 2030 and 2050. Step 5: Reporting The calculations and Quests are summarized in 55 fact sheets, which describe each element of the technology and its impacts. The fact sheets pro

4、vide a fuller description of the Technology Quests, key issues, typical projects, the CO emissions-reduction potential as well as market and job creation opportunities. The detailed calculations are also available in a spreadsheet that has been made publicly available online alongside this report on

5、 Capgemini Invents website. These 55 Technology Quests build on the EU Commissions own 1.5Tech scenario and provide additional detail on the specific technology mix needed. Figure 7 - Distribution of the Technology Quests across the innovation cycle by economic area and maturity Acceleration and sca

6、le-up TotalDomain Energy Industry Buildings Transport Food and Land Use Total Drive to market scale 3 3 3 1 4 14 8 2 11 3 8 32 13 17 13 6 6 55 Innovation bet 2 2 3 9 1 1 “What we really need in order to change the game are innovative facilities and business models that go to scale, supported by EU G

7、reen Deal aligned regulations.” Diego Pavia, CEO InnoEnergy The full description of the methodology and calculations used for the business case approach (quantitative assessment) are provided in the Appendix. 11 Scenario 1: Electrifi cation Scenario 2: Hydrogen Scenario 3: Power-to-X Scenario 4: Ene

8、rgy Effi ciency Scenario 5: Circular Economy Cost-effi cient combination of options from previous scenarios 2050: 90% emission reduction compared to 1990 Based on combination scenario, with more Carbon Capture and Storage 2050: net-zero emissions Scenario 6: Combination Scenario 7: 1.5TECH scenario

9、T H E EU RO PE A N COM M I S S I O N S 1.5 T EC H S C EN A R I O The 1.5Tech scenario was developed and published by the European Commission in 2018, based on the PRIMES energy system model. This scenario is part of the EC Communication “A Clean Planet for all. A European strategic long-term vision

10、for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy.”5 Until 2030, all the published scenarios provide the same figures, based on the existing EU policy framework and following known Member State policies, leading to 45% GHG savings compared to 1990. By 2050, the first five scenarios f

11、ocus separately on electrification, hydrogen, power-to-X, energy efficiency and circular economy. Their cost-efficient combination is assessed in a sixth scenario that achieves higher emission reductions. 1.5Tech is a more ambitious scenario: it combines options from the previous ones and targets ne

12、t-zero emissions in 2050. In this scenario: hydrogen and power-to-X technologies become important, the required electricity generation increases from 3,221 TWh today to 7,948 TWh to feed hydrogen, power-to-X and electrification, the 1.5Tech scenario increases the contribution of all technologies by

13、concerted technology development. The 55 Quests can deliver the 1.5Tech scenario, and cover key strategic technologies aiming to: massively green electricity and decarbonize heat, shift industrial processes to electricity and hydrogen, accelerate decarbonization in buildings by reducing energy deman

14、d, provide C-liquids and N-liquids to long-distance transports and develop hydrogen and e-mobility for shorter distances, reduce emissions of food, crops and livestock. https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52018DC0773 increase the control of demand, supply and storage; improv

15、e aggregation of demand, etc. Smart digital technologies must be deployed at all scales and locations, including homes, districts, transportation modes, cities, industries, grids, power plants and buildings. Improve and enhance electric grids Traditionally, fuels and the power they generate have bee

16、n consumed separately. Electricity, gas and liquid fuels each have their own supply chains that are largely independent from one another. By 2030, hydrogen will have penetrated the market, and electricity will be used more widely, including in the generation of hydrogen. Sites producing large quanti

17、ties of renewable energy will be needed in every region in Europe, but not necessarily close to where that energy is consumed. Grids need to expand and be improved as they transport more electricity. 29 Greener gases, pure hydrogen, CO, heat and cooling will also have to be transported or reused in

18、new, circular usages. 30 G IG A-S C A L E M A N U FAC T U R I NG C A PAC I T I E S OF N E W G EN ER AT ION S OL A R MODU L E S Build gigafactories based on perovskite and III-V multi-junction high efficiency cells by 2030 Project opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: The efficiency of

19、 crystalline silicon cells is reaching its technical limits. Moreover, in the last 15 years China has produced most of the worlds solar PV Solution: Multi-junction cells associated with silicon industrial know-how to reach higher levels of field efficiency. Large scale 4.0 factories to drive down co

20、sts and allowing large reallocation of production to Europe Key impacts: 37.9 MtCOe avoided, 1.8 billion total market, 14,000 jobs in 2030 An innovative EU next-gen PV program would rely on two pillars: (i) structured industrial and R (ii) large manufacturing plants to scale up innovation. The main

21、project focus is on increasing manufacturing facilities while R the amended Annex V of REACH published in October 2019 exempts digestate from registration17. This provides support to the development of the sector, even though essential mechanisms are still missing, such as a robust European system o

22、f Guarantees of Origin (GOs) for biomethane. Although the technology of anaerobic digestion and conversion to biomethane is already deployed at commercial scale, biogas production suffers from industrial value chain issues (such as a scattered market, lack of coordination between stakeholders, and l

23、ack of knowledge sharing). In addition, there are technical issues (such as a lack of knowledge on the microbiome, efficiency and reliability issues, etc.). That is why the cost of biomethane is around 95/MWh today, as compared to the average wholesale price for natural gas at 10/MWh at the end of 2

24、019, a record low in Europe. Even pioneer member state, Germany, only delivers less than 1% of its natural gas demand in biomethane. An industrial value chain approach is necessary to standardize installations and processes to significantly increase volumes and reduce costs. 12 13t 14 15https:/atee.

25、fr/system/files/2019-12/CRE%20Rapport-Gaz%202019.pdf 16https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32019R1009 there is a higher demand for electricity due to new uses linked to green hydrogen and electrification. Grids must support the evolution of the future electricity consumption

26、 profile both in TWh and load factors. Reinforcing the grids concern lines, stations and substations including switch breakers, transformers, capacitors, reactors, reclosers, meters and their control-command systems is required. Project type 2: Develop and upscale use of new grid technologies Key an

27、d innovative technologies that have the potential to transform power delivery include: High and medium voltage equipment (FACTS, PMU, RTU), HVDC, Ultra-high voltage transmission, Superconductivity. Scaled up investments in new technologies need to be implemented in Europe by 2030 and 2050 in order t

28、o prepare electric grids to the next level of requirements regarding the growing quantity of intermittent power. Main stakeholders: TSOs, ENTSO-E, cable industry players and associations (such as Europacable), regulators, project developers, utilities, and citizens associations. Clusters: Large Euro

29、pean companies such as Siemens, ABB, Schneider and large TSOs drive this market, rather than local clusters. Projects that inspired this analysis: Various advanced projects at EU level already identified as Projects of Common Interest are key for renewables integration, grid stability, resilience, a

30、nd flexibility. They should be supported to avoid delays, especially in the North Sea region and other national corridors. #10 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Optimize and redesign grids EN ERG Y 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S R E CO V E R Y

31、A N D PAV E T H E WAY TO C L I M AT E N E U T R A L I T Y Why this technology and project are needed to reach net-zero Impacts See opposite column 16.6 billion total market 166.4 billion investment by 2030, 16.6 billion yearly average (2020-2030) 250,000 jobs Grids are enablers in the decarbonizatio

32、n of the power production mix. No additional CO emission reductions are realized beyond reducing emissions from power generation. 8.3 billion total market 249 billion investment by 2050, 8.3 billion yearly average (2020-2050) 125,000 jobs C L I M AT E I M PAC T ECO N O M I C I M PAC T J O B S 203020

33、50 In 2020, Europe had 1,000 GW of production assets connected by 300,000 km of transmission lines and 10,000,000 km of distribution lines, the latest being served by 240,000 direct employees43. According to the ENTSO-E-G Ten Years Network Development Plan (TYNDP), the grid will have to connect 1,40

34、0 GW production by 2030 and 1,800 GW by 205044. A significantly adapted network infrastructure is required to decarbonize EUs electricity. High-voltage direct current (HVDC) is an increasingly important method for transferring large amounts of electrical power for the pan-European transmission grid,

35、 but the deployment of meshed HVDC offshore grids is currently being hindered by the high cost of converter technology, lack of experience with protection systems and fault clearance components and immature international regulations and financial instruments. As described in the EU Governance Regula

36、tion of the Clean Energy Package, member states must reach 15% interconnection by 2030. Grid expansion lags renewable power development in various countries. A major hurdle for infrastructure projects is the permitting process. Although there were some simplifications to accelerate grid expansion on

37、 a federal level, these simplifications must be adopted at the local level, but local processes are not always updated promptly. Additionally, local resistance complicates the permitting process which translates into delays in grid expansion projects. Further, electrical power transmission with lowe

38、r losses is critical to the success of renewables. This is illustrated by the fact that solar power insolation factors range from 9% to 18% across the EU. If 10% of annual renewable generation projects were to relocate to a better location, it would increase global output by 5%. 43https:/www3.eurele

39、ctric.org/powerdistributionineurope/ 44https:/tyndp.entsoe.eu/tyndp2018/ #10 49 50 T R A NSFOR M G A S G R I DS I N TO A N E W MU LT I - FOC USED R E S OU RC E Repurpose Europes gas grids for biomethane, H, and CO and focus them on industry needs and dense urban areas Project opportunity and ambitio

40、n I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: The share of conventional fossil gases will shrink with decarbonization, electrification and greater use efficiency. In parallel, hydrogen, CO, biomethane and e-gas will need to be transported Solution: Retrofit existing natural gas grids to transport H and CO and devel

41、op new-built H and CO networks, starting from industrial clusters. In dense areas, adapt natural gas grids to green gas requirements. In less dense areas, decommission gas grids to concentrate green gas availability in dense areas Key impacts: 31.2 billion cumulated investment and 47,000 jobs in 203

42、0 An innovative EU next-gen PV program would rely on two Reshape Europes gas network infrastructures to fit the H CCUS and synthetic fuels projects by 2030 and beyond. Before 2030, start focusing on industrial clusters, key ports and key interconnections needed by the hydrogen and CO circular econom

43、y. In Europe, there are 30 integrated steel plants with blast furnaces, 250 cement plants, 80 refineries, and 50 fertilizer plants45. These installations are often gathered in industrial clusters and are well connected to motorway, water and rail corridors. Ten major port areas handle over 100 mt of

44、 annual goods, gather concentrations of the above industrial sites and are starting and ending points to the freight corridors, typically Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Marseille-Fos, Le Havre, Sines, Valencia, Genova, and Trieste. Project type 1: Develop 2,000 km of CO grids C

45、O grids are needed inside industrial clusters or ports to connect sites capturing CO (steel, cement, refineries) with sites reusing CO to generate liquid e-fuels, e-gas and possibly with inland or submarine sequestration sites: 1,000 km of new grids and 1,000 km of converted methane grids in main in

46、dustrial clusters and ports by 2030. This enables 100- 200 km grid for a few large international port areas, 10-100 km in several inland industrial clusters, one or two inter- regional and submarine connections. Project type 2: Develop 10,000 km of H grids by 2030 The development of H grids should f

47、ocus on helping to massify hydrogen production and to quickly lower costs. Start with connecting large renewable plant areas with onsite hydrogen generation (offshore wind in North Sea, wind in Eastern Europe, solar PV in Southern Europe) to consumption areas. Connect consumer industries such as cem

48、ent, steel, refineries, e-fuel plants in a few important ports and industrial areas. Before 2030, there could be: 5,000 km new onshore and offshore H grids. 5,000 km switch of existing gas grids to H. Project type 3: Transform and better allocate gas grid purposes (reverse, H, focusing on denser are

49、as) Focus available green gas (biomethane, H) in urban areas and industrial clusters. Decommission gas grids in the lower density areas. By 2030 transform 700,000 km of grids to smarter grid: reverse compression between pressure levels to ease biomethane and H injection, manage variable energy content, intraday demand response and storage. #11 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Optimize and redesign grids EN ERG Y 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S R E CO V E R Y A N D PAV E T H