1、1 Tourism in SIDS: the challenge of sustaining livelihoods in times of COVID-19 UNWTO BRIEFING NOTE TOURISM AND COVID-19, ISSUE 2 JUNE 2020 https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 2 Table of contents Key findings The im

2、pact of COVID-19 on international tourism Tourism in SIDS: inbound tourism in JanuaryApril 2020 International tourism: a lifeline for SIDS Policies to mitigate the impact and accelerate recovery 3 4 5 7 14 https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM

3、- IP Address:40.65.176.200 3 Key findings Tourism is a socio-economic pillar of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and the COVID-19 crisis risks devastating their economies. Tourism accounts for over 30% of total exports in the majority of SIDS, reaching as much as 80% in some. International tour

4、ist arrivals declined by 47% in SIDS during JanuaryApril 2020 and the road to recovery is set to be long. Such a major shock translates into a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange and tax revenues which curbs public spending capacity and ability to deploy the measures necessary

5、to support livelihoods through the crisis. Women, who account for half of the workforce in almost all SIDS, and informal workers are particularly at risk. Many SIDS have deployed measures to sustain businesses and jobs, often supported by international and regional institutions yet more support is u

6、rgent. The external debt of the SIDS accounts for 72.4% of GDP on average and foreign reserves are generally low, with many SIDS possessing only the reserves sufficient for a few months of imports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The United Nations Department of

7、Economic and Social Affairs estimates that SIDS economies could shrink by 4.7% in 2020 as compared to 3% for the world economy. SIDS require thus an extraordinary international programme to counter the devastating impact of COVID-19 on tourism, their economies and livelihoods. https:/www.e-unwto.org

8、/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 4 The Impact of COVID-19 on international tourism Current scenarios for 2020 point to possible declines of 58% to 78% in international arrivals worldwide The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedent

9、ed disruption to both domestic and international travel, bringing destinations and source markets worldwide to a standstill. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 44% in JanuaryApril 2020 over the same period of last year. Prospects for 2020 have been downgraded several times

10、since the outbreak of the pandemic given the rapidly-evolving situation and high level of uncertainty. UNWTO Scenarios1 released in early May point to possible declines of 58% to 78% in international arrivals this year, based on the speed of the containment of the disease, the duration of travel res

11、trictions and the pace of re-opening of borders. This would be by far the largest decline in arrivals in the historical series, eclipsing the 4% drop in 2009 following the global economic crisis, or the mild decrease of 0.4% after the SARS outbreak in 2003. The scenarios are not forecasts and should

12、 not be interpreted as such. They are based on possible dates of lifting of travel restrictions and gradual reopening of international borders. The scenarios reflect possible patterns of monthly year-on-year change in arrivals from April to December 2020 supposing that travel restrictions start to b

13、e lifted and national borders opened in early July (scenario 1), in early September (scenario 2) or in early December (scenario 3). They are based on available data for JanuaryMarch 2020 and other information such as the shutdown of all national borders as of late April, though still in a context of

14、 high uncertainty. 1. UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 18, Issue 2, May 2020 International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 5 Tourism in SIDS: inbound tourism in Jan

15、uaryApril 2020 https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 6 The SIDS comprise 38 States2 with common characteristics such as limited resources, heavy dependence on international trade, often fragile environments and remote

16、ness, which makes them particularly vulnerable to external shocks, natural disasters and climate change. On the other hand, they differ in several aspects, such as land area, geographical configuration, population size, income levels, diversification of source markets and the importance of tourism t

17、o their economy. With a particularly rich natural and cultural heritage, SIDS have emerged as one of the worlds leading tourist destinations. Many of them have benefited greatly from the increasing demand for international travel, enhanced air accessibility and cruise tourism, which provide a vital

18、contribution to their economies. In 2019, SIDS welcomed some 44 million international tourist arrivals (3% of the worlds total) and exports from international tourism reached US$ 55 billion, accounting for 8% of total exports from SIDS. COVID-19 has inflicted a heavy blow to international tourism in

19、 SIDS in the first four months of 2020 (47% drop in international arrivals), with the nearly total suspension of travel by air and sea, widespread travel restrictions and border closures in both destinations and source markets. The importance of tourism as a source of export revenues, income, job cr

20、eation and investments, makes SIDS particularly vulnerable to the impact of COVID-19. The severe disruption caused by the pandemic poses a serious threat for a large number of tourism-dependent livelihoods, small and medium enterprises, and the advancement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Measu

21、res to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and to stimulate the recovery of the tourism sector in SIDS, especially in an adverse global economic context, are more critical than ever. International tourist arrivals in SIDS declined 47% in January-April 2020 COVID-19 is having an unprecedented impact on t

22、ourism, bringing international travel to a virtual standstill from March 2020 onwards. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) worldwide saw a 44% decrease in January-April 2020. Arrivals were down 97% in April following lockdowns in many countries, widespread travel restrictions in 100%

23、 of destinations in the world and the shutdown of airports and national borders. In SIDS destinations, arrivals are estimated to have dropped by 47% in JanuaryApril 2020, equivalent to a loss of 7.5 million arrivals compared to the same period in 2019. The decline was steeper in the month of April,

24、with arrivals falling 97%. Destinations in the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS) group were the hardest-hit, with a 53% decline in JanuaryApril 2020 in view of the earlier impact of the pandemic in Asia and a much sharper 98% drop in April. The Caribbean and Pacific groups both suffer

25、ed a 43% drop in the first four months of 2020. 2. In three geographical regions: 16 SIDS in the Caribbean, 9 in the Pacific Ocean and 13 in the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS). Small Island Developing States comprise 38 UN Members, according to the United Nations Office of the High

26、 Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UN-OHRLLS). International tourist arrivals in SIDS: JanuaryApril 2020 (monthly % change) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 P

27、M - IP Address:40.65.176.200 7 International tourism: a lifeline for SIDS https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 8 Over US$ 50 billion in exports in 2019 In 2019, SIDS recorded 44 million international tourists (overni

28、ght visitors), about 3% of the worlds total. Destinations in the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and South China Sea group (AIS) account for 53% of the total and those in the Caribbean 43%. The Pacific group accounts for a smaller proportion of 4%. In the nine years from 2010 to 2019, SIDS destina- tions gre

29、w an average 6% per year, outperforming the world average of 5%. In 2019, arrivals in SIDS saw zero growth, with the AIS group recording a small 1% increase and Caribbean destinations a 1% decline as a consequence of the lingering impacts of the strong 2018 hurricanes. The smaller group of Pacific d

30、estinations saw 3% growth. Three destinations represent about 60% of the total international tourist arrivals in SIDS: Singapore, the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Singapore alone accounts for 34% of the SIDS total, with 15 million international arrivals in 2019. The Dominican Republic represents 15%

31、 and Cuba about 11% of the total. These are followed by Bahrain and Jamaica. International tourist arrivals in SIDS, by subgroup (%), 2019 International tourist arrivals in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), % change * Provisional Data (Data collected June 2020) 1. Atlantic, Indian Ocean and Sou

32、th China Sea https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 9 Caribbean destinations such as Bahamas and Jamaica also receive large numbers of international cruise passengers every year, which often exceed the number of intern

33、ational tourists (overnight visitors). Bahamas received 5 million cruise passengers in 2018, compared to roughly 2 million international tourists. International tourism represents over 30% of total exports in the majority of SIDS. SIDS earned US$ 55 billion in exports from tourism in 2019, or about

34、3% of the world total. AIS destinations earned US$ 30 billion, or 55% of the SIDS total and Caribbean destinations US$ 22 billion, or 41%. The largest destination, Singapore, recorded US$ 20 billion in international tourism revenues in 2019, or 37% of the total. International tourism accounts for 8%

35、 of SIDS total exports as compared to the world average of 7%. Yet, excluding Singapore, the weight of tourism in the exports of SIDS economies reaches 28%. In 13 out of the 38 SIDS, tourism accounts for 50% or more of total exports. In Saint Lucia, Palau, Bahamas and the Maldives it generates over

36、80% of all exports. Overall, the weight of tourism is much larger in Caribbean destinations, with 34% of all exports generated by international visitor spending. In the Pacific islands tourism represents 14% of total export revenues. The proportion of tourism revenues is smaller in the AIS group (5%

37、), mostly due to the lower share of Singapore (3%), a major international trade hub and the top destination in SIDS, which brings down the AIS average. Tourism revenues are also high relative to population in SIDS, with an average US$ 610 per capita earned in SIDS destinations, well above the world

38、average of US$ 230. Compared to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), export revenues from tourism represent about 9% of SIDS economies. This also exceeds the world average of 2%, which emphasizes the importance of international tourism for SIDS. Only a few SIDS report data on the economic contribution of t

39、ourism to GDP (Tourism GDP), based on their Tourism Satellite Accounts. Tourism accounts for 13% of Fijis GDP (2014) and 9% in Jamaica (2017), while tourism GDP represents less than 0.5% in Timor-Leste (2014). Small Island Developing States: international tourism revenues (US$ billion) and Share of

40、total exports (%) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and World Trade Organization (WTO). Note: No data available for Micronesia FSM, Tuvalu or Nauru. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 10 Small Island Devel

41、oping States: export revenues from international tourism as a percentage of GDP (%) Small Island Developing States: international tourism revenues, share of total exports (%) Note: No data available for Micronesia FSM, Tuvalu or Nauru. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421916 - Sunday,

42、 October 25, 2020 10:17:06 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 11 Women and informal workers particularly at risk Tourism is major engine of job creation and a driver of socio-economic growth. As a labour- intensive activity and with a multiplier effect on related sectors such as agriculture, construction

43、 and transport, tourism generates job opportunities particularly for women and youth. As a result of the collapse in demand for international travel, UNWTO estimates that between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs in the world are at risk. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO

44、), accommodation and food services3 is one of the economic sectors most at risk. Of the 144 million workers in the accommodation and food services sector in 2019, more than half are women. According to aggregates based on ILO data, employment in accommodation and food services reached some 1.3 milli

45、on overall in the 27 SIDS reporting data in 2018. Data reported by 27 countries shows that employment in accommodation and food service activities in the Caribbean islands, can reach around 17% in Bahamas and more than 10% in Saint-Lucia, Barbados and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Most SIDS repo

46、rting data on employment distribution by sex (26) show a high share of female workers with women employed in the accommodation and food services reaching more than 70% in Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago, and more than 50% of the total workforce in 21 SIDS across the three regions. The majority of the

47、workforce are employed in micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The ILO estimates that almost 1.6 billion informal workers (the most vulnerable in the labour market) out of 2 billion have suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living due to the lockdown measures and/or bec

48、ause many work in the hardest-hit sectors3 such as tourism. Informal workers in low-income and lower-middle- income countries, which includes many SIDS, are particularly affected. 68% of informal employment (as a percentage of total employment) in low- income countries and 80% of informal employment

49、 in lower-middle-income countries are significantly impacted. The informal economy (wage workers without social protection, own-account workers such as street vendors)4 contributes to jobs, incomes and livelihoods, and in many low- and middle-income countries such as SIDS it plays a major economic role. The COVID-19 pandemic could thus put a large number of informal workers at risk of poverty or falling deeper into poverty, according to the I