1、CANADAS FOOD PRICE REPORT 11TH EDITION 2021 DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY MEMBERS Dr. Sylvain Charlebois (Lead Author, Project Lead - Dalhousie University) Faculties of Management and Agriculture sylvain.charleboisdal.ca Alyssa Gerhardt Faculty of Applied Social Sciences alyssa.k.gerhardtdal.ca Stacey Taylor

2、 Faculty of Computer Science Stacey.Taylordal.ca Mitchell Kane Faculty of Computer Science mkanedal.ca Dr. Vlado Keselj Faculty of Computer Science vlado.keseljdal.ca Dr. Elizabeth Fitting Faculty of Applied Social Sciences elizabeth.fittingdal.ca Dr. Karen Foster Faculty of Applied Social Sciences

3、karen.fosterdal.ca Dr. Kathleen Kevany Faculty of Agriculure kkevanydal.ca Dr. Stefanie Colombo Faculty of Agriculure scolombodal.ca Janet Music Faculty of Agriculure janet.musicdal.ca Don Fiander DalAnalytics don.fianderdal.ca UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH MEMBERS Dr. Simon Somogyi (Project Lead University

4、of Guelph) Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics ssomogyiuoguelph.ca Dr. Ethan Jackson Vector Institute however, our predictions for bakery, dairy and meat were slightly below (0.1% to 0.2%) what was actually observed. For meat, especially, the increase in price significantly outpaced our

5、forecast. For 2021, the report uses the same categories of food and makes the following predictions: 2021 FOOD PRICE FORECASTS Food CategoriesAnticipated Changes (%) Bakery3.5% to 5.5% Dairy1% to 3% Fruits2% to 4% Meat4.5% to 6.5% Other2% to 4% Restaurants3% to 5% Seafood1.5% to 3.5% Vegetables4.5%

6、to 6.5% Total Increase in Food Prices3% to 5% 4 | CANADAS FOOD PRICE REPORT 2021 Over the last decade, this report has considered many market instruments and macroeconomic factors in its forecasts: financial indicators, recession signals, currencies and Canada-specific information. The 2021 report f

7、orecasts that overall food prices will increase 3 to 5%. In previous years, Canadas Food Price Report predicted an annual food expenditure for the average Canadian family. This year, recognizing the diversity of Canadian families, we are providing average food expenditure by individual consumer base

8、d on age and gender. This allows the reader to construct the household or family that best reflects their own reality. We are also using a new food basket, excluding food service altogether even though we are still providing a forecast for menu prices. For example, based on a family that includes a

9、man (age 3150), woman (age 31 50), boy (age 1418) and girl (age 913), the annual food expenditure is predicted to be $13,907 in 2021, which would be an increase of $695 (5%) compared to 2020, excluding food service. In dollars, that is the highest predicted increase by Canadas Food Price Report. The

10、 food inflation rate in 2021 is likely to outpace the general inflation rate. 2020 experienced the unprecedented COVID-19 global pandemic. The pandemic affected the entire agri-food chain from farmgate to consumers. It caused border and facility closures, shifted consumer demand from food service to

11、 food retail and created unemployment and underemployment. It also introduced modifications in production, manufacturing, distribution and retailing practices to accommodate enhanced safety procedures, from testing of personnel to additional time for sanitizing. The repercussions and uncertainty of

12、the pandemic continue to impact the global economy. This year also saw an oil price war and devaluation of the Canadian dollar, which impacted food prices. PREPARED BY DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY | UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH | UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN | UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA | 5 In 2021, we can expect

13、 to feel the continued effect of COVID-19 on our agri-food chain and global food systems, in addition to the growing impact of climate change. We can also expect to see adaptations in the agri-food chain based on lessons learned from the pandemic, for example, the growth in e-commerce platforms and

14、online services. Other notable events to watch in the food industry in 2021 include the continuing loss of the food manufacturing sector, the national ban on some single-use plastics, continued actions to mitigate the effects of climate change, and the impact of the U.S. presidential election outcom

15、e on food policy and on our currency. The 2021 projections of price changes by province are shown in the table below. 2020 PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWN OF FOOD PRICES Province 2020 Changes12021 Forecasts2 Alberta British Columbia Manitoba New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Nova Scotia Ontario 3 Prince

16、Edward Island 4 Saskatchewan - Quebec - OVERVIEW OF 2019: HOW WE DID The 2019 forecasts were accurate except for bakery, dairy and meat, but we missed these categories by no more than 0.2%. Price increase predictions for these categories were lower than what was observed. 1 () Expected above-average

17、 food price increase, () Expected below-average food price increase, () Expected average food price increase. Lower confidence intervals at the provincial level. 2 () Expected above-average food price increase, () Expected below-average food price increase, () Expected average food price increase. L

18、ower confidence intervals at the provincial level. 3 Second highest food inflation rate in country in 2020. 4 Highest food inflation rate in country in 2020. 6 | CANADAS FOOD PRICE REPORT 2021 FIGURE 1: 2020 YTD FORECAST RESULTS Bakery Dairy Seafood Restaurant Food Fruit Meat Other Vegetables 8 6 4

19、2 0 -2 2020 Median CPI 2020 Forecast CPI TABLE 1: 2020 FOOD PRICE RESULTS Categories Anticipated Increase for 2020 Results (Oct. 19 to Sept 20) Bakery 0% to 2%2.2% Dairy 1% to 3% 3.1% Fruits 1.5% to 3.5%1.8% Meat 4% to 6%6.1% Other 0% to 2%1.8% Restaurants2% to 4%2.1% Seafood 2% to 4% 2.6% Vegetable

20、s 2% to 4%2.4% Total Food Categories Forecast 2% to 4%2.7% For meat, especially, the increase in price significantly outpaced the 2019 forecast. Price increases in the bakery category could be explained by rising wheat futures. Seafood depends on two distinct supply chains: aquaculture and wild capt

21、ure. The aquaculture supply chain has experienced a lot of volatility, particularly with our reliance on Asia for aquaculture imports. PREPARED BY DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY | UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH | UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN | UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA | 7 It is important to note that, overall, the

22、food inflation index has outpaced general inflation over the last 20 years in Canada (see Figure 2). The typical grocery bill for Canadians has risen approximately 170% over the last two decades.5 This means that, over the last 20 years, Canadian householdsespecially those in Eastern Canadahave been

23、 spending a greater proportion of their household budgets on food.6 Historically, the food component of household expenditure has been less than 10% as opposed to the 1970s when it was over 20%. FIGURE 2: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX COMPARED TO FOOD PRICE INDEX (20002020) 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 Newfoundla

24、nd and Labrador New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Nova ScotiaQuebec OntarioManitobaSaskatchewanAlbertaBritish Columbia Northwest Territories CPI (2020-2000) Food Pice Increase (2020-2000) Food Pice Index Difference - CPI Difference 5 Charlebois, S. (2020, September 23). Noticed your grocery bill se

25、ems to be getting higher? Heres why. Retail Insider. https:/www.retail- seems-to-be-getting-higher-heres-why 6 Charlebois, S. (2020, September 27). Column: Your grocery bill is rising and COVID-19 will only make it worse. The Sudbury Star. Retrieved from news/column-your-grocery-bill-is-rising-and-c

26、ovid-19-will-make-it-worse The food inflation index has outpaced the general inflation index over the last 20 years, and that trend is likely to continue for a while. 8 | CANADAS FOOD PRICE REPORT 2021 COVID-19 While there is no evidence that COVID-19 can be transmitted from food or food contact sur

27、faces,7 the pandemic has posed major challenges to the global food system and Canadian agri-food supply chainsfrom farmgate to consumer. COVID-19 has resulted, for example, in shifts in consumer demand, slowdowns and closures of food plants and distribution centres, labour shortages and logistics di

28、sruptions. Despite national assurance that our food supply remains safe and stable, the ability of the food chain to successfully adapt to challenges and disruptions and whether the pandemic continues into 2021 will determine the potential for food insecurity8 and the extent of food price increases.

29、 COVID-RELATED FACILITY AND SAFETY MEASURES Challenges for growers/farmers and food processors in the Canadian agri-food supply chain have resulted from the increased safety protocols and preventive measures to fight the spread of COVID-19. Disruptions in the food supply chain resulting from closure

30、s of borders and facilitieshave caused temporary shortages of food and/or higher prices for some products. National border closures did not stop the flow of food, but did pose challenges to growers who are reliant on migrant labouror temporary foreign workersduring their harvest seasons, and food pr

31、ocessors who rely on imported raw materials.9 Border closures to migrant labour were short-lived; in April 2020, the Canadian government issued exemptions to temporary foreign workers from COVID-related travel restrictions. The Canadian government also provided financial aid for farmers to cover the

32、 wages and living costs of workers during the mandatory two-week self-isolation period.10 The pandemic shed light on the poor working conditions and treatment of migrant 7 Canadian Food Inspection Agency. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19): information for consumers about food safety and animal health.

33、https:/www.inspection.gc.ca/covid-19/information-for- consumers-about-food-safety-and-an/eng/08/56 8 Holland, K. L. (2020). Canadas Food Security During the COVID-19 Pandemic. University of Calgary: The School of Public Policy, 13(13). https:/www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/ upl

34、oads/2020/06/Food-Security-Holland.pdf 9 Hailu, G. (2020). Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7264577/ 10 Holland, K. L. (2020). Canadas Food Security During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Univer

35、sity of Calgary: The School of Public Policy, 13(13). https:/www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/ uploads/2020/06/Food-Security-Holland.pdf PREPARED BY DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY | UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH | UNIVERSITY OF SASKATCHEWAN | UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA | 9 workers in Canada as the virus spread rapid

36、ly through a number of farms, resulting in some deaths.11 The meat processing sector also faced challenges because of COVID-19related closures. Relatively high requirements for manual labour and close physical working conditions common in meat processing facilities means the virus has the potential

37、to spread quickly. With increased safety measures (e.g., physical distancing), processing plants were operating below regular capacity and efficiency. In worst-case scenarios, whole plants faced shutdown, for example, Cargills High River Facility in Alberta12 and Olymel in Yamachiche, Valle-Jonction

38、 and Princeville in Quebec.13 These shutdowns resulted in a large temporary backlog of animals on Canadian farms.14 SHIFT FROM FOOD SERVICE TO FOOD RETAIL Declared states of emergency and shutdowns in Canadian provinces had a significant impact on the food service industry as restaurants were forced

39、 to close and Canadians were asked to stay home. The mass closure of restaurants across the country resulted in increased consumer demand for food retail. The financial impact on the food industry was significant as more people worked from home and potentially outside urban cores. Before the pandemi

40、c, the food retail/service ratio stood at 62/38. In other words, 62% of food budgets were spent on food retail, and 38% on food service. Monthly food retail sales in Canada were approximately $7.7 billion, versus $5.3 billion for food service, according to StatCan. In May 2020, the last month before

41、 restaurants started to re-open, the ratio went to 91/9, with food retail generating $7.8 billion in sales in May 2020 versus $891 million in food service. Despite new sanitary measures, we believe the ratio is currently 74/26, approximately, but we do not expect that in 2021 it will return to near

42、where it was 11 Beaumont, H. (2020, July 20). Coronavirus sheds light on Canadas poor treatment of migrant workers. Globe and Mail. Retrieved from canada-migrant-farm-workers-coronavirus 12 Holland, K. L. (2020). Canadas Food Security During the COVID-19 Pandemic. University of Calgary: The School o

43、f Public Policy, 13(13). https:/www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/ uploads/2020/06/Food-Security-Holland.pdf 13 Hailu, G. (2020). Economic thoughts on COVID-19 for Canadian food processors. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, https:/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7264577/ 14 Glen, B. (202

44、0, August 27). Plants whittle down COVID backlog. The Western Producer. Retrieved from The food industrys performance during the pandemic so far has been nothing short of a miracle. We should be thankful to everyone involved. 10 | CANADAS FOOD PRICE REPORT 2021 before COVID. As such, many companies

45、are pivoting, using e-commerce and recalibrating their portfolio of channels and products.15 Grocers had to quickly adapt to the changing circumstances. The shift in consumer demand from food service to food retail also had an impact on food distributors. For example, produce intended for restaurant

46、s was wasted;16 surplus food initially intended for restaurants was redirected to retailers;17 foods were repackaged for food retail rather than food service; and there was reduced bulk demand.18 Still, supply chains geared to food service were not always easily adaptable to the food retail market i

47、n terms of distribution and packaging.19 SHIFTING CONSUMER DEMANDS In addition to the shift in demand from food service to food retail, other interesting consumer trends came to light in the early stages of the pandemic, for example, panic buying and hoarding behaviour. Although it was short-lived,

48、Canadians emptied shelves of goods such as tuna, pasta, soup, peanut butter, flour, rice, and frozen fruits and vegetables.20 Sales of these items increased immensely, for example, rice sales in mid-March 2020 increased by 239% compared to mid-March 2019.21 While panic buying and hoarding represent

49、only a brief moment in time, a shift in consumer demand for online grocery services will likely have longer-lasting effects. Despite grocers increased investment in e-commerce platforms over the years, surges in demand for online grocery shopping due to COVID-19 caused existing infrastructure to strugglefor example, 15 https:/www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/restaurants-post-covid-19.html 16 New Food Maga