1、ANNUAL MARKET UPDATE 2017 GLOBAL WIND REPORT Opening up new markets for business Hanoi, 7 June 2018 MONGOLIA WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, 6-7 September 2018 GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE THE NEXT BIG THING ? 9 CHAPTER TWO GLOBAL STATUS OF WIND POWER IN 2017 15 CHAPTER THRE

2、E MARKET FORECAST 2018-2022 27 CHAPTER FOUR A SNAPSHOT OF TOP WIND MARKETS IN 2017 35 Argentina 36 Australia 37 Brazil 38 Canada 39 PR China 40 The European Union 42 Finland 46 France 47 Germany 48 India 49 Japan 50 Mexico 51 Netherlands 52 Norway 53 Offshore Wind 54 Pakistan 64 South Africa 65 Turk

3、ey 66 United States 67 Uruguay 68 Vietnam 69 About GWEC 70 GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 4 2017 was not a spectacular year in terms of global installations, but key developments marked the forward progress of the energy transformation. Driven by the improving economics of wind power, as well as sol

4、ar and storage, the outlines of a future sustainable energy system are beginning to become clear. Hybrid wind/solar/storage plants are now being built, able to supply clean reliable power 24/7 for most of the year; utilities are seriously experimenting with battery storage in place of peaker plants;

5、 and EV sales are booming in key markets. The development of local micro-grids, some using peer to peer power trading with blockchain technology, and more and more sophisticated market structures for matching up supply and demand at all scales are just some of the elements beginning to emerge. Last

6、year at this time we reported on prices in a tender in Morocco having broken through the US$ 0.03/kWh barrier. This year, we note the record low prices in Mexicos most recent tender, having broken through US$ 0.02/kWh. How much lower can it go? Nobody knows for sure, but costs will continue to come

7、down, albeit probably at a slower rate than in recent years. Overall, 52.5 GW of new wind power was installed across the globe in 2017, a slight decrease on the 2016 market of 54.6 GW, bringing total installed capacity up to 539 GW. Behind the numbers, however, is the fact that wind energy is now op

8、erating in more and more markets on a purely commercial basis, moving away from the support schemes of old; and that transition has created policy gaps in a number of markets, as governments and regulators as well as the industry gets accustomed to the new reality. We expect these gaps to be felt in

9、 2018 installation numbers as well, before the global market returns to growth in 2019. China, the driver of global market growth for most of the last decade, installed 19.7 GW in 2017, more than twice as much as any other market, even though it represents a decrease on 2016s 23 GW. India had a reco

10、rd year, breaking the 4 GW barrier for the fi rst time in 2017, and although 2018 is likely to be a gap year, we can expect rapid growth starting in 2019. Europe had an extraordinary year, setting new records both on and offshore. New annual market records were set in Germany, the UK, France, Belgiu

11、m, Ireland and Croatia, as well as in the offshore segment, which accounted for 3,148 MW of the European total of 16,803 MW (15,638 MW in the EU). The US installed a solid 7 GW, having dodged a bullet and survived the new tax bill largely unscathed. Canadas numbers were down, but the big news was De

12、cembers auction in Alberta, with prices coming in below US$ 0.03/kWh, and we can expect more PREFACE Steve Sawyer Secretary General GWEC GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 5 auctions in 2018. Mexicos newly reformed market is now ready for takeoff, and we can expect more than 1,000 MW of installations th

13、is year. Brazil installed just over 2 GW in 2017, and it seems as if the worst of the political and economic crises are behind them, with new wind power being contracted in Decembers auction after a nearly 2-year hiatus, and there are two more auctions scheduled for 2018. Argentina now has a solid 3

14、 GW pipeline with another auction coming up in the 3rd quarter of this year. The Middle East and Africa was quiet, with only South Africa adding capacitybut the good news from South Africa is that on 4 April the PPAs for the last round of tenders were fi nally signed, after a delay of more than 2 ye

15、ars. In the Pacifi c, the only activity was in Australia which installed a modest 245 MW, but now has a 2.8 GW pipeline to be build out in the next few years to meet 2020 targets. Proving that offshore wind has fi nally hit its stride, 2017 marked the fi rst zero-bid offers for offshore development

16、rights, for more than 1 GW off Germany. This helped prompt the Dutch government to launch a subsidy-free tender for 700 MW which was awarded in March. While it will be some years before this is the new normal, offshore going forward is economically competitive with any and all new forms of generatio

17、n, at least in Europe; and this has sparked huge interest in the technology around the globe: in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Australia and even Brazil! This is the 13th annual report on the status of the global wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council. It provides a

18、comprehensive overview of the global industry at a specifi c moment in time; an industry now present in more than 90 countries, 30 of which have more than 1,000 MW installed, and 9 with more than 10,000. The information contained in this report market data, profi les and analysis, have been collecte

19、d primarily through GWECs member associations and companies around the world, as well as from governments and independent analysts. We thank all our contributors and look forward to continuing our collaboration in the future. Brussels, 25 April 2018 Steve Sawyer Morten Dyrholm Morten Dyrholm Chairma

20、n GWEC GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | 6 R enewables are gaining momentum globally. At the same time, regulations and policy-driven targets of some governments will have a signifi cant impact on the course of this global move. Certainly, Europe wants to make headway towards a progressively decarbonis

21、ed future. Europe is taking action, showing a strong commitment to the Paris Agreement. The ambitious EU binding target of 35% share of renewables by 2030 included in the latest revision of the EU Renewable Energy Directive still needs to be negotiated with the individual countries. The previous con

22、sensus in 2014 on EU Energy Strategy for 2030 set the bar at 27% minimum. The difference is signifi cant since it doubles the pace at which deployment should take place. International markets and auctions have driven industrial costs down over the last few years. We have witnessed a very interesting

23、 turn of events in the energy generation industry: renewables are the most competitive option for any power plant in the world. The progressive electrifi cation of the transport and heating sectors is becoming a tangible reality that should be further enabled by effi cient green energy assets. The l

24、atter may help with capped costs, and at the same time, it should be virtuously balanced by the fl exible demand of these sectors. Therefore, an increased deployment pace is not only desirable but justifi ed. With good foresight, the current European energy strategy already included plans for electr

25、ical infrastructure reinforcement, interconnections, common trading platforms and diversifi cation of power supply. However, the rate of deployment of renewables conditioned by the approved targets is an essential factor for fostering investments in technology development and industrial value chains

26、. This is key to maintaining the competitive advantages achieved during the past decade. With its common origin in the yearly allowance of the suns radiation bestowed upon the earth, renewable energy fi nds unequal balances in different regions of the globe as they strive for equilibrium. Technology

27、 costs or legacies have a decisive infl uence on the energy mix for any particular country, but progressive convergence with the natural endowments should be expected. Equatorial regions rich in solar radiation, the tropics ideal for hybridization, and the territories in windy cold climates, all of

28、them shall strive for the optimum combination of energy sources. In most places renewables tend to be sparse and uneven; these characteristics raise material, control and storage challenges that can be addressed through R and although through the rest of the decade the US remained the market leader,

29、 Europe as a whole surpassed the US early on. The fi rst non-OECD market was India, which installed its fi rst commercial project in 1986. Rapid growth followed in the 1990s, led by Germany which overtook the US as market leader in 1997, and European markets broadened to include Italy, the Netherlan

30、ds, the UK and Sweden, and there were the fi rst stirrings of the markets in China, Japan, Canada and Australia. By the mid-2000s, Spain had also overtaken the US (briefl y), and Canada and Portugal had entered the top 10 markets. Everything changed after the introduction of the Chinese Renewable En

31、ergy Law in 2005, and by the end of the decade China emerged as the global market leader, and is now double the #2 market, the US, which overtook Spain in 2007 and then Germany in 2008. The only change in the top 5 ranking since then was India moving past Spain in 2015. At the end of the 2000s and t

32、he beginning of the new decade, new markets emerged in Brazil, Mexico and South Africa, as well as Egypt, Morocco, Chile, and a host of smaller markets in Europe, most notably Turkey and Poland. Today we have commercial wind operations in more than 90 countries around the world, 9 of them with more

33、than 10,000 MW, and 30 with more than 1,000 MW across Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America and Africa. Where to next? When looking back 10 years from now, what will be the big success stories from the end of this decade and the 2020s? While we dont have defi nitive answers to that question, th

34、ere are a few key markets with enormous potential that could begin to play dominant roles in the industry by 2030, and we take a look at some of them here: Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. The Philippines GWEC GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report | The Next Big Thing ? 11 ARGENTINA A century ag

35、o, Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world, and its relative economic decline has puzzled economists for decades. The country is blessed with fantastic natural wealth of nearly every description, and one of the brightest spots at the moment is the potential to develop its extraordina

36、ry renewable energy potential. Argentina has been the sleeping giant in South America since the early days of the wind industry. With enough wind power potential to supply all of Latin Americas electricity needs several times over, developers have looked hungrily towards the windswept Pampas in the

37、south of the country as something of a holy grail. Back in the 1990s Santa Cruz Governor (later President) Kirchner was very enthusiastic about wind powers potential and instigated the fi rst few small wind projects in Argentina. However, after the fi nancial crisis at the end of the decade interest

38、 waned, and by the time he was elected President in 2003 wind power was largely off the radar and remained so until the election of the Macri government which took offi ce in late 2015. Since then, Argentina seems to have done just about everything right. Implementing newly passed legislation, the n

39、ew government developed an enabling framework for the achievement of renewable electricity targets of 8% by 2017, and 20% by 2025. The full programme was launched in May of 2016, dubbed RenovAr, consisting of a series of fi scal incentives and fi nancial support mechanisms, regulations and rules aim

40、ed at overcoming the existing barriers to renewable energy investment. The main barriers were due to the Argentine government having defaulted on its foreign debt three times since 1982, the last being in 2014 in other words, the government had a diffi cult sales job to convince international invest

41、ors that Argentina was a good investment destination. However, the promises of the new government, the fact that Argentinas power market is second only to Brazil in South America, and the enormous wind (and solar) potential of the country convinced investors to take the risk. The fi rst tender round

42、 in 2016 was oversubscribed many times, and nearly 1.5 GW of wind projects were awarded, and another 1 GW in 2017, which, combined with the rehabilitation of about 500 MW of legacy projects from the largely unsuccessful GenRen programme, has created a 3 GW pipeline which is now being built out. With

43、 another tender scheduled for later in 2018, and two international OEMs having announced plans for the establishment of manufacturing facilities, it seems that Argentinas renewable energy industry is up and running, led by wind power. It will be some time before it is in a position to challenge Braz

44、il for wind power leadership in the region, although it should be fi rmly in the #2 spot in South America before 2020. Could it all go horribly wrong? Given the countrys history of political and fi scal instability, it certainly could, but confi dence is growing with each milestone passed, and the r

45、ecent introduction of regulations allowing for private/corporate power purchase deals adds another leg for the industry to stand on. The 2019 elections will be crucial for the programmes future, but barring any unforeseen surprises, it looks very positive for the wind sector going forward, with a market of at least 1 GW/year. With the success of the RenovAr programme to date, the 2025 target will be met and perhaps exceeded, and at some point in the not too distant future the government may need to adjust the targets upward; although in or