1、 About the WTO The World Trade Organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. About this publication World Trade Statistical Review provides a detailed analysis of the latest developm

2、ents in world trade. It is the WTOs flagship statistical publication and is produced on an annual basis. For more information All data used in this report, as well as additional charts and tables not included, can be downloaded from the WTO web site at www.wto.org/statistics 1 I. Introduction Acknow

3、ledgements A message from Director-General Roberto Azevdo Abbreviations and symbols II. Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years III. World trade and GDP growth in 2016 and early 201 7 Overview Merchandise trade Trade in commercial services World trade and economic growth in early

4、 2017 IV. Merchandise trade and trade in commercial services Merchandise trade Trade in commercial services Trade in value added terms The challenge of measuring digital trade V. Trading patterns: Global and regional perspectives Merchandise trade Trade in commercial services VI. Participation of de

5、veloping economies in world trade Developing economies Aid for Trade VII. Trade policy developments Trends in trade policy making Trade facilitation VIII. Composition, definitions (ii) trade figures include the intra-trade of free trade areas, customs unions, geographical and other groups; (iii) mer

6、chandise trade figures are on a customs basis and (iv) merchandise exports are f.o.b. and merchandise imports are c.i.f. Data for the latest year are provisional. The statistical data in this publication are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant statistical authorities. In line wi

7、th the practice of the WTO Secretariat, this publication uses the names of WTO members as listed in the latest revision to document WT/INF/43. References to other geographical territories and groupings are based solely on terms provided to the WTO Secretariat by WTO members and observers or terms us

8、ed by relevant international organizations. The use of such data and terms does not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status of any country or territory, or the delimitation of its frontiers, or sovereignty. The colours, boundaries and names shown and

9、 the designations used on maps in this publication do not imply any judgment, official endorsement or acceptance by the WTO Secretariat as to the legal status or frontier of any territory, or the rights and obligations of any WTO member in respect of WTO agreements. References and data relating to t

10、erritories that are not WTO members or observers in their own right do not amount to an endorsement as to the WTO status, if any, of such territories. Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years Chapter II Merchandise trade Trade in commercial services Regional trade agreements WTO m

11、embership Economies by size of merchandise trade, 2016 Economies by size of trade in commercial services, 2016 10 11 12 13 14 15 20000 15000 10000 5000 2006200720082009200016 0 Manufactured goodsFuels and mining productsAgricultural products 175 200 150 125 100 2006200720082009

12、200016 75 Manufactured goodsFuels and mining productsAgricultural products World Trade Statistical Review 2017 10 World exports of manufactured goods increased from US$ 8 trillion in 2006 to US$ 11 trillion in 2016. World exports of fuels and mining products have declined by 10

13、% since 2006. World exports of agricultural products increased by an average of World exports of agricultural products have increased by 70% since 2006. per year. 5% 70% World merchandise trade by major product grouping, 2006-2016 (US$ billion) World merchandise trade by major product grouping, 2006

14、-2016 (Index 2006 = 100) Note: World trade is calculated as an average of exports and imports of merchandise trade. Merchandise trade 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2006200720082009200016 0 Transport Transport Travel Travel Other commercial services Other commercial services Goods-re

15、lated services Goods-related services 180 200 160 140 100 120 2006200720082009200016 Chapter II | Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 World exports of commercial services totalled US$ 4.8 trillion in 2016, up from US$ 2.9 trillion in 2006. Travel and

16、other commercial services have increased the most, with both being 1.7 times higher than in 2006. World trade in commercial services by category, 2006-2016 (US$ billion) World trade in commercial services by category, 2006-2016 (Index, 2006 = 100) Note: World trade is calculated as an average of exp

17、orts and imports of commercial services. Trade in commercial services European Union (28) WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) Andean CommunityCEMAC (Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa) ECCAS (Economic Community of Central

18、 African States)MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market) COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) SADC (Southern African Development Community) World Trade Statistical Review 2017 12 The European Union

19、 and the North American Free Trade Agreement continue to dominate trade among regional trade agreements. Trade within the EU represented 63% of all EU total exports in 2015. In NAFTA, ASEAN, SADC and MERCOSUR, intra-trade totalled 50%, 24%, 18% and 14% respectively. Merchandise exports of regional t

20、rade agreements, 2006-2016 (US$ billion) Exports within regional trade agreements, 2006-2015 a (Share, %) a Latest period for which intra-trade data is available. Regional trade agreements 80 90 70 60 50 40 30 20 20062007200820092001320142015 10 0 10000 12000 8000 6000 4000 2000 200620072

21、0082009200016 0 Africa Europe Asia Middle EastNorth AmericaSouth and Central America and the Caribbean Commonwealth of Independent States, including associate and former member states World merchandise trade of WTO members, 2006-2016 (US$ billion) 70 60 50 100 90 80 40 30 10 20

22、 2006200720082009200016 0 Chapter II | Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 13 WTO members account for 98.2% of world merchandise trade. Asia, Europe and North America account for 88% of this total. Merchandise trade of WTO members has increased to US$ 15

23、.4 trillion, up from US$ 11.7 trillion in 2006. Share in world merchandise trade of WTO members, 2006-2016 (Percentage, %) Note: World trade is calculated as an average of exports and imports of merchandise trade. WTO membership 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2006200720082009200016 W

24、orld Trade Statistical Review 2017 14 The top 10 traders in merchandise trade account for a little over half of the worlds total trade in 2016. Developing economies had a 41% share in world merchandise trade in 2016. Merchandise exports of WTO members totalled US$ 15.71 trillion in 2016. 53%41% US$

25、15.71 tn 0 - 125 125 - 250 250 - 500 500 US$ billion Note: Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export. Economies by size of merchandise trade, 2016 US$ billion Chapter II | Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 15 The top 10 traders in world commercial services re

26、present more than half of the worlds total trade in commercial services in 2016. Developing economies accounted for 34% of total trade in commercial services in 2016. Exports of commercial services by WTO members totalled US$ 4.73 trillion in 2016. 53%34% US$ 4.73 tn 0 - 10 10 - 25 25 - 50 50 Econom

27、ies by size of trade in commercial services, 2016 Chapter III Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade slowed to 1.3 per cent in 2016, down from 2.6 per cent in 2015, as continuing weakness in the global economy and low commodity prices had a negative impact on global import demand. World gro

28、wth in GDP dropped to 2.3 per cent in 2016, down from 2.7 per cent in 2015, well below the average of 2.8 per cent since 1980. The slowdown in world trade partly reflected the further weakening of investment spending, which is the most trade-intensive component of import demand. Although merchandise

29、 trade increased slightly in volume terms in 2016, it declined in value terms due to a fall in export and import prices. Merchandise exports fell by 3.3 per cent, to US$ 15.46 trillion, in 2016. Commercial services trade on a quarterly basis recorded growth of just 0.1 per cent in value terms in 201

30、6, totalling US$ 4.77 trillion. The weakest services component was transport, which tends to reflect fluctuations in goods trade. Developing economies imports dropped 3 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 before rebounding in the second quarter and recovering to their previous level by the end of

31、the year. However, developed economies imports remained weak throughout the year. Trade indicators such as export orders and container throughput in major ports were up in the first quarter of 2017, suggesting stronger trade growth for the year, but the presence of significant risk factors also poin

32、t to the possibility of less positive outcomes. World trade and GDP growth in 2016 and early 2017 World trade in 2016: Latest trends and driving forces Overview Merchandise trade Trade in commercial services World trade and economic growth in early 2017 18 18 20 23 26 World Trade Statistical Review

33、2017 18 10 15 20 5 0.1 1.01.0 1.3 1.5 1.81.8 1.4 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.62.6 1.51.51.5 1.6 1.01.01.01.0 0.6 1.71.7 1.8 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.4 -0.2 2.0 -2.9 0 -5 -10 -15 2 3 4 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2

34、004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 World trade volume growth (left)World GDP growth (left)Ratio of trade growth to GDP growth (right) World trade in 2016: Latest trends and driving forces Overview In 2016, world merchandise trade recorded its lowest growth rate in volume

35、 terms since the financial crisis of 2008, with an increase of just 1.3 per cent, as measured by the average of exports and imports. This low level of expansion was half as strong as the 2.6 per cent increase recorded in 2015 and well below the 4.7 per cent average annual rate since 1980. The weakne

36、ss of trade growth last year was partly due to continuing weakness in the global economy, with economic activity slowing in both developed and developing economies. But it also reflected deeper structural changes in the relationship between trade and economic growth. The most trade-intensive compone

37、nts of global demand were particularly weak in 2016 as investment spending slumped in the United States and as China continued to rebalance its economy away from investment and towards consumption, dampening global import demand. Lacklustre world trade growth in 2016 was accompanied by weak real GDP

38、 growth of 2.3 per cent at market exchange rates. This was down from 2.7 per cent in the previous year and also below the 2.8 per cent average annual rate since 1980. Generally, trade growth is much more volatile than GDP growth at the global level although both tend to rise and fall together. Since

39、 the Second World War, the volume of world merchandise trade has tended to grow about 1.5 times faster than world GDP, although in the 1990s it grew more than twice as fast. However, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth has fallen to around 1:1. Las

40、t year marked the first time since 2001 that this ratio dropped below 1 to 0.6 (see Chart 3.1). It is expected to recover partly in 2017 but the further slowing of trade relative to GDP remains a cause for concern. Source: WTO Secretariat for trade; consensus estimates for GDP based on reported data

41、 from a variety of sources including the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the United Nations. Chart 3.1: Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 1981-2016 (Annual percentage change and ratio) Chapter III | Wor

42、ld trade and GDP growth in 2016 and early 2017 19 Source: International Monetary Fund. Food and beveragesAgricultural and raw materialsMetalsFuels 100 120 80 60 20 40 Jan - 14 Apr - 14 Jul - 14 Oct - 14 Jan - 15 Apr - 15 Jul - 15 Oct - 15 Jan - 16 Jan - 17 Apr - 16 Jul - 16 Oct - 16 Chart 3.2: Price

43、s of primary commodities, January 2014 - February 2017 (Indices of US$ values, January 2014 = 100) Although world merchandise trade increased slightly in volume terms in 2016, it declined in value terms due to falling export and import prices. World merchandise exports were valued at US$ 15.46 trill

44、ion in 2016, down 3.3 per cent from the previous year. The pace of contraction was slower than in 2015, when export values fell 13.5 per cent due to strong appreciation of the US dollar and a plunge in oil prices. All regions recorded declines in merchandise exports in 2016, with the smallest declin

45、e registered by Europe (-0.3 per cent) and the largest by the Commonwealth of Independent States (-16.2 per cent). On the import side, Europe saw a small increase (0.2 per cent) while all other regions recorded declines. The value of world exports of commercial services grew by just 0.1 per cent in

46、2016, totalling US$ 4.77 trillion. All regions recorded similar levels of growth, with the strongest performance seen in Asia (0.9 per cent). On the import side, Asia outpaced other regions by a wider margin (with growth of 2.6 per cent). As in 2015, the discrepancy between trade growth in terms of

47、volume and value in 2016 largely reflects declines in commodity prices as well as appreciation of the US dollar. However, these price changes were not as significant in 2016 as they were in 2015 (see Chart 3.2 and Chart 3.3). Fuels saw the biggest decline in prices of any category of primary commodi

48、ties in 2016, falling 16.5 per cent year-on-year. Smaller declines were recorded for agricultural raw materials (-5.7 per cent) and metals (-5.4 per cent). In contrast, food prices increased slightly (1.3 per cent). Commodity prices overall fell by around 10 per cent in 2016. This is considerably le

49、ss than the 35 per cent plunge recorded in 2015 but still significant, particularly for resource-producing countries whose export revenues have continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace. The weakness of fuel prices was partly explained by the resilience of crude oil production in the United States, including from non-traditional sources such as shale. According to the US Energy Information Administration, oil output declined in the first half of 2016 but rose in the second half, limiting the year-on-year declin