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1、World Energy Investment 2023The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will
2、 enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and
3、boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherla
4、nds New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingapore
5、South AfricaThailandUkraineRevised version,May 2023 Information notice found:www.iea.org/corrections World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|3 IEA.All rights reserved.Abstract Abstract This years edition of the World Energy Investment provides a full update on the investment picture in 2022 and an initial
6、 reading of the emerging picture for 2023.The report provides a global benchmark for tracking capital flows in the energy sector and examines how investors are assessing risks and opportunities across all areas of fuel and electricity supply,critical minerals,efficiency,research and development and
7、energy finance.It focuses on some important features of the new investment landscape that are already visible,including the policies now in place that reinforce incentives for clean energy spending,the energy security lens through which many investments are now viewed,widespread cost and inflationar
8、y pressures,the major boost in revenues that high fuel prices are bringing to traditional suppliers,and burgeoning expectations in many countries that investments will be aligned with solutions to the climate crisis.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|4 IEA.All rights reserved.Table of contents Table
9、of contents Introduction.5 Overview and key findings.7 Power sector.25 Overview of power investment.26 Generation.31 Final investment decisions(FIDs).41 Electricity grids and battery storage.48 Implications.55 Fuel supply.58 Overview.59 Upstream oil and gas.66 Midstream and downstream oil and gas.73
10、 Oil and gas industry transitions.79 Low-emission fuels.84 Coal.97 Critical minerals.101 Implications.105 Energy end use and efficiency.108 Buildings.111 Transport.117 Industry.124 Implications.128 R&D and technology innovation.131 Spending on energy R&D.133 VC funding of early-stage energy technolo
11、gy companies.141 Implications.150 Sustainable finance.154 Overview.155 Sustainable investing.159 Sustainable debt issuances.166 Annex.174 World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|5 IEA.All rights reserved.Introduction Introduction World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|6 Introduction A turning point for energy
12、investment?This new World Energy Investment 2023(WEI 2023)report is the eighth in our annual series where we provide the global benchmark for tracking capital flows in the energy sector.The last few years have been a period of extreme disruption for the energy sector.The new WEI 2023 offers an oppor
13、tunity to take stock of what this has meant for investment,and what those investments might mean in turn for the future security and sustainability of the energy sector.The shock to the system from the global energy crisis has come at a time of increasingly visible impacts of a changing climate and
14、has taken many forms.Price spikes created strong economic incentives to increase supply and to find alternative or more efficient ways to meet demand.Energy security shocks created powerful incentives for policy makers to reduce vulnerabilities and dependencies,while also for many developing economi
15、es in particular draining the financial resources available to address them.In the new WEI 2023 we provide a full update on the investment picture in 2022 and an initial reading of the emerging picture for 2023.Huge uncertainties remain over how events will play out.But some important features of th
16、e new investment landscape are already visible,including the policies now in place that reinforce incentives for clean energy spending,the energy security lens through which many investments are now viewed,widespread cost and inflationary pressures,the major boost in revenues that high fuel prices a
17、re bringing to traditional suppliers,and burgeoning expectations in many countries that investments will be aligned with solutions to the climate crisis.The structure of this years WEI 2023 is as follows:In Chapter 1 we present the overview and key findings.Chapter 2 covers the power sector,while Ch
18、apter 3 reviews the latest developments and trends in fuel supply investment.Chapter 4 deals with investment in energy efficiency and the end-use sectors,and Chapter 5 brings insights on energy research and development and innovation.The concluding Chapter 6 considers trends in energy finance.While
19、the focus of WEI 2023 is to track investment and financing trends in 2022 and provide an early indication for 2023,the report also benchmarks todays trends against future scenarios from the IEA World Energy Outlook.The Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS)is based on todays policy settings and considers a
20、spirational targets only insofar as they are backed by detailed policies.The Announced Pledges Scenario(APS)assumes that all climate commitments and net zero targets made by governments around the world will be met in full and on time.The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario)sets out a n
21、arrow but achievable pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|7 Overview and key findings Overview and key findings World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|8 Overview and key findings The recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and the re
22、sponse to the global energy crisis have provided a major boost to global clean energy investment Global energy investment in clean energy and in fossil fuels,2015-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2023e=estimated values for 2023.400 8001 2001 6002 00020002120222023eBillion USD(2022)Clea
23、n energyFossil fuels World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|9 Overview and key findings Increases across almost all categories push anticipated spending in 2023 up to a record USD 2.8 trillion Energy-sector investment,2019-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“Low-emission fuels”include modern liquid and gaseous bi
24、oenergy,low-emission hydrogen and low-emission hydrogen-based fuels;“Other end use”refers to renewables for end use and electrification in the buildings,transport and industrial sectors.The terms grids and networks are used interchangeably in this report and do not distinguish between transmission a
25、nd distribution;2023e=estimated values for 2023.100 200 300 400 500 600 700200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023e200222023eUpstream oiland
26、 gasMidstream oiland gasCoalLow-emissionfuelsRenewablesFossilGrids andstorageNuclearEfficiencyElectrificationand otherBillion USD(2022)Fuel supply investmentPower investmentEnd use investment World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|10 Overview and key findings Renewables,led by solar,and EVs are leading t
27、he expected increase in clean energy investment in 2023 Annual clean energy investment,2015-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“Low-emission fuels”include modern liquid and gaseous bioenergy,low-emission hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels that do not emit any CO2 from fossil fuels directly when used and emit
28、very little when being produced;“Other end use”refers to renewables for end use and electrification in the buildings,transport and industrial sectors.2023e=estimated values for 2023;CCUS=carbon capture,utilisation and storage;EV=electric vehicle.400 8001 2001 6002 0002000212022
29、2023eBillion USD(2022)Low-emission fuelsand CCUSNuclearBattery storageEVsGridsOther end useEnergy efficiencyRenewable power World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|11 Overview and key findings Less than half of the oil and gas industrys unprecedented cash flow from the energy crisis is going back into tra
30、ditional supply and only a small fraction to clean technologies Distribution of cash spending by the oil and gas industry,2008-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ.20%40%60%80%100%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Net debt r
31、epaidDividends plusbuybacks minusissuancesLow-carboncapitalexpenditureOil and gascapitalexpenditure World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|12 Overview and key findings The momentum behind clean energy investment stems from a powerful alignment of costs,climate and energy security goals,and industrial str
32、ategies The recovery from the slump caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the response to the global energy crisis have provided a significant boost to clean energy investment.Comparing our estimates for 2023 with the data for 2021,annual clean energy investment has risen much faster than investment i
33、n fossil fuels over this period(24%vs 15%).Our new analysis highlights how the period of intense volatility in fossil fuel markets caused by the Russian Federations(hereafter“Russia”)invasion of Ukraine has accelerated momentum behind the deployment of a range of clean energy technologies,even as it
34、 also prompted a short-term scramble for oil and gas supply.We estimate that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023.More than USD 1.7 trillion is going to clean energy,including renewable power,nuclear,grids,storage,low-emission fuels,efficiency improvements and end-use renewable
35、s and electrification.The remainder,slightly over USD 1 trillion,is going to unabated fossil fuel supply and power,of which around 15%is to coal and the rest to oil and gas.For every USD 1 spent on fossil fuels,USD 1.7 is now spent on clean energy.Five years ago this ratio was 1:1.Clean energy inves
36、tments have been boosted by a variety of factors.These include improved economics at a time of high and volatile fossil fuel prices;enhanced policy support through instruments like the US Inflation Reduction Act and new initiatives in Europe,Japan,the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)and e
37、lsewhere;a strong alignment of climate and energy security goals,especially in import-dependent economies;and a focus on industrial strategy as countries seek to strengthen their footholds in the emerging clean energy economy.This momentum has been led by renewable power and EVs,with important contr
38、ibutions also from other areas such as batteries,heat pumps and nuclear power.In 2023 low-emissions power is expected to account for almost 90%of total investment in electricity generation.Solar is the star performer and more than USD 1 billion per day is expected to go into solar investments in 202
39、3(USD 380 billion for the year as a whole),edging this spending above that in upstream oil for the first time.Consumers are investing in more electrified end uses.Demand for electric cars is booming,with sales expected to leap by more than one-third this year after a record-breaking 2022.As a result
40、,investment in EVs(defined as the incremental spending on EVs vs the average price of vehicles sold in a given country)has more than doubled since 2021,reaching USD 130 billion in 2023.Global sales of heat pumps have seen double-digit growth since 2021.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|13 Overview a
41、nd key findings The increase in fossil fuel investment expected in 2023 is unevenly spread around the world;less than half the cash flow available to the oil and gas industry is going back into new supply2022 was an extraordinarily profitable year for many fossil fuel companies,as they saw revenues
42、soar on higher fuel prices.Net income from fossil fuel sales more than doubled compared with the average in recent years,with global oil and gas producers receiving around USD 4 trillion.Our overall expectation,based on analysis of the announced spending plans of all the large and medium-sized oil,g
43、as and coal companies,is that investment in unabated fossil fuel supply is set to rise by more than 6%in 2023,reaching USD 950 billion.The largest share of this total is going to upstream oil and gas,where investment is expected to rise by 7%in 2023 to more than USD 500 billion,bringing this indicat
44、or in aggregate back to the levels of 2019.Around half this increase is likely to be absorbed by cost inflation.Many large oil and gas companies have announced higher spending plans on the back of record revenues.But uncertainties over longer-term demand,worries about costs,and pressure from many in
45、vestors and owners to focus on returns rather than production growth mean only large Middle Eastern national oil companies are spending much more in 2023 than they did in 2022,and they are the only subset of the industry spending more than pre-pandemic levels.The headline rise in spending on new oil
46、 and gas supply represents less than half of the cash flow that was available to the oil and gas industry.Between 2010 and 2019,three-quarters of cash outflows were typically invested into new supply.This is now less than half,with the majority going to dividends,share buybacks and debt repayment.In
47、vestment by the oil and gas industry in low-emissions sources of energy is less than 5%of its upstream investment.This indicator differs widely by company,with double-digit shares common among the large European companies.Investment by the industry in clean fuels,such as bioenergy,hydrogen and CCUS,
48、is picking up in response to more supportive policies but remains well short of where it needs to be in climate-driven scenarios.Investment in coal supply is expected to rise by 10%in 2023,and is already well above pre-pandemic levels.Investment in new coal-fired power plants remains on a declining
49、trend,but a warning sign came in 2022 with 40 GW of new coal plants being approved the highest figure since 2016.Almost all of these were in China,reflecting the high political priority attached to energy security after severe electricity market strains in 2021 and 2022,even as China deploys a range
50、 of low-emission technologies at scale.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|14 Overview and key findings The increase in clean energy spending in recent years is impressive but heavily concentrated in a handful of countries Increase in annual clean energy investment in selected countries and regions,20
51、19-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0 Note:2023e=estimated values for 2023.-10 20 50 80 110 140 170 200RussiaIndonesiaMiddle EastBrazilAfricaIndiaJapanUnited StatesEuropean UnionChinaBillion USD(2022)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|15 Overview and key findings Clean energy costs edged higher in 2022,but pressure
52、s are easing in 2023 and mature clean technologies remain very cost-competitive in todays fuel-price environment IEA clean energy equipment price index Average prices for selected technologies IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The IEA clean energy equipment price index tracks price movements of a fixed basket of
53、equipment products that are central to the clean energy transition,weighted according to their share of global average annual investment in 2020-2022:solar PV modules(48%),wind turbines(36%),EV batteries(13%)and utility-scale batteries(3%).Prices are tracked on a quarterly basis with Q4 2019 defined
54、 as 100.100 200 300 400 500 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.52014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022USD/kWh(nominal prices)Million USD/MW(nominal prices)EV batteries(RH axis)Storage batteriesWindturbinesSolar panels 50 100 150 200 2502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Index(2019 Q4=100)World Energy
55、Investment 2023 PAGE|16 Overview and key findings Notes of caution amid rising momentum behind clean energy transitions The positive momentum behind clean energy investment is not distributed evenly across countries or sectors,highlighting issues that policy makers will need to address to ensure a b
56、road-based and secure transition.The macroeconomic environment presents additional obstacles,with higher short-term returns for fossil fuel assets and rising borrowing costs and debt burdens.Clean energy investments often require high upfront spending,making the cost of financing a crucial variable
57、for investors,even if this is offset over time by lower operating costs.More than 90%of the increase in clean energy investment since 2021 has taken place in advanced economies and China.There are bright spots elsewhere:for example,solar investment remains dynamic in India;deployment in Brazil is on
58、 a steady upward curve;and investor activity is picking up in parts of the Middle East,notably in Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and Oman.However,higher interest rates,unclear policy frameworks and market designs,financially-strained utilities and a high cost of capital are holding back inves
59、tment in many other countries.Remarkably,the increases in clean energy investment in advanced economies and China since 2021 exceed total clean energy investment in the rest of the world.After an unbroken run of cost declines,prices for some key clean energy technologies rose in 2021 and 2022 thanks
60、 largely to higher input prices for critical minerals,semiconductors and bulk materials like steel and cement.Solar PV modules were around 20%more expensive in early 2022 than one year earlier,although these price pressures have eased since.Wind turbine costs,especially for European manufacturers,re
61、mained high in early 2023,at 35%above the low levels of early 2020.Permitting has been a key concern for investors and financiers,especially for wind and grid infrastructure.While solar deployment has been increasing year-on-year,the project pipeline for some other technologies has been less reliabl
62、e.Investment in wind power has varied year-on-year in key markets in response to changing policy circumstances.Nuclear investment is rising but hydropower,a key low-emission source of power market flexibility,has been on a downward trend.Weak grid infrastructure is a limiting factor for renewable in
63、vestment in many developing economies,and here too current investment flows are highly concentrated.Advanced economies and China account for 80%of global spending and for almost all of the growth in recent years.Our analysis presents a mixed picture on the prospects for energy efficiency and end use
64、 investments.They rose in 2022 thanks to the stimulus provided by new policies in Europe and North America,alongside exceptionally high energy prices.However,we expect spending to flatten in 2023 amid a slowdown in construction activity,higher borrowing costs and strains on household budgets.World E
65、nergy Investment 2023 PAGE|17 Overview and key findings Cuts in Russian gas deliveries to Europe have prompted higher investment in alternative sources of supply and in LNG infrastructure Change in global investment in natural gas supply Annual LNG import and export capacity additions IEA.CC BY 4.0.
66、Notes:“Gas supply investment”includes upstream and transport(LNG liquefaction,shipping and regasification and pipeline transmission and distribution).2023e=estimated values for 2023.20 40 60 80 100 202320252027Bcm per yearImportExport-60-45-30-2020202120222023eBillion USD(2022)
67、World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|18 Overview and key findings Strong policy signals and new support schemes have triggered a rapid expansion in the project pipelines for low-emissions hydrogen and CCUS Capacity additions for hydrogen electrolysis and CO2 capture projects by announced start date,201
68、7-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:GW=GW of electricity input;for years before 2023,actual start dates are shown;for 2023 onwards,scheduled start dates as announced by developers are shown;CCUS covers all sources of CO2,including low-emission hydrogen projects using CCUS;data include projects at the“feasibi
69、lity”stage and beyond.Sources:IEA analysis based on IEA hydrogen project database,CCUS projects database and recent announcements.5 10 15 20 25 30North AmericaEuropeLatin AmericaChinaAsia PacificMiddle EastOtherHydrogen electrolysisMW 15 30 45 60 75 90Mt CO/yrCCUS World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|1
70、9 Overview and key findings Gas investments are caught between immediate shortfalls and longer-term uncertainty,although low-emission opportunities are growing Russia cut pipeline deliveries of natural gas to the European Union by around 80%in 2022,seeking leverage by exposing consumers to higher en
71、ergy bills and supply shortages following its invasion of Ukraine.This led to strong price and policy incentives for investors to step up non-Russian gas supply,build up alternative delivery infrastructure,and scale up alternatives to natural gas.All of these effects are visible in our analysis.The
72、amount of new oil and gas resources approved for development in 2022 and 2023 has been below the average level seen over the past decade.However,2023 is seeing a 25%increase in new approvals relative to 2022 and most of these are for natural gas,reflecting the push to substitute for the shortfall in
73、 Russian supply.A wave of new regasification capacity is also underway as countries look to secure liquefied natural gas(LNG)imports.Europes annual regasification capacity is set to increase by 50 bcm from 2022-2025,expanding the continents overall LNG import capacity by one-fifth.Import projects ar
74、e growing even more quickly in Asia,which is set to add over 100 bcm of LNG import capacity by 2025(more than half in China).The crisis has also prompted additional investment in liquefaction capacity,the most expensive part of the gas value chain.Around 60 bcm of capacity has been given the green l
75、ight since Russias invasion of Ukraine,nearly double the rate of new approvals compared with the past decade.Along with projects already under construction,this leads to an unprecedented 170 bcm of export capacity that could come into operation between 2025 and 2027.A key dilemma for investors under
76、taking large,capitalintensive gas supply projects is how to reconcile strong nearterm demand growth with uncertain and possibly declining longer-term demand.This is a particular issue for Europe,given the continents strong climate goals.Many importers have been reluctant to commit to long-term contr
77、acts for gas supply.A preference for floating regasification terminals has been a way to avoid locking in future emissions.Another avenue is to expand investment in low-emission fuels and in CCUS.New policies are swelling the project pipeline in these areas,driven by energy security and climate impe
78、ratives.Europe has a burgeoning number of electrolytic hydrogen projects,and reinforced US incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act have prompted a wave of investor interest in hydrogen and CCUS.After a number of false dawns,the number of large-scale projects and well-capitalised sponsors,along wit
79、h a string of acquisitions by oil and gas majors(notably in transport biofuels and biogases),suggests that investment in low-emission fuels could grow strongly in the coming years.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|20 Overview and key findings Investment is flowing to clean energy manufacturing and c
80、ritical minerals,but ensuring well-sequenced growth of new supply chains will be a major task Lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity Capital expenditure by major mining companies in the non-ferrous metals IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Cu=copper;Ni=nickel;Co=cobalt;the illustrative expansion of manufacturi
81、ng capacity assumes that all announced projects proceed as planned.10 20 30 40 50200212022Billion USD(2022)ChinaEuropeUnited StatesRest of worldDiversified majorCu,Ni,Co specialistLithium specialist 2 4 6 8202220252030TWh World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|21 Overview and key findings Comp
82、etition for clean energy manufacturing and for supplies of critical minerals and metals is a major issue for the resilience of transitions A secure transition to clean energy hinges on resilient and diversified clean energy technology supply chains.According to the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives
83、,some USD 1.2 trillion of cumulative investment to 2030 is needed in clean energy manufacturing and in critical minerals supply to get on track for a 1.5C scenario,in addition to the energy sector investments covered in this report.Record sales of EVs,strong investment in battery storage for power(w
84、hich are expected to approach USD 40 billion in 2023,almost double the 2022 level)and a push from policy makers to scale up domestic supply chains have sparked a wave of new lithium-ion battery manufacturing projects around the world.If all capacity announcements were to materialise,then 5.2 TWh of
85、new capacity could be available by 2030.For the moment,China is the main player at every stage of global battery manufacturing,with the exception of the mining of critical minerals.The announced manufacturing plans would somewhat erode this position.In 2022,over 75%of existing battery manufacturing
86、capacity was located in China.However,despite accounting for two-thirds of yearly global capacity additions to 2030,Chinas share of global capacity could fall by nearly 10 percentage points by the end of the decade.A key question for battery manufacturers is whether supplies of critical minerals wil
87、l keep up with demand.Thanks to high prices and growing policy support,investment in critical mineral mining rose by 30%in 2022.Exploration spending also grew,notably for lithium,copper and nickel,led by Canada and Australia and with activities growing in Brazil and resource-rich countries in Africa
88、.But moving from exploration to new production can take more than 10 years,and there remain widespread concerns that critical mineral investment will become a constraining factor for clean technology manufacturing and deployment.Critical minerals and batteries are among the areas where clean technol
89、ogy innovation remains essential.Public spending on research and development has been on a steady upward trend,as has corporate spending.But venture capital funding for clean energy,after reaching a high in 2022,faces headwinds in a more difficult macroeconomic environment.For a decade,cheap capital
90、 has lowered barriers to investment in riskier bets and thereby concealed potential weaknesses in innovation systems.With the cost of money set to rise,the health of these systems and the level of public support will be a critical determinant of how quickly new technology ideas continue to flow.Worl
91、d Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|22 Overview and key findings Scaling up clean investment is the key task for the sustainable and secure transformation of the energy sector Historical investment in energy benchmarked against needs in IEA scenarios in 2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:STEPS=Stated Policies Scena
92、rio;APS=Announced Pledges Scenario;NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.2023e=estimated values for 2023.1 2 3 4 52019 2020 2021 2022 2023e2030STEPS2030APS2030NZE2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e2030STEPS2030APS2030NZEClean energyFossil fuelsClean electrificationLow-emission fuelsEnergy efficiencyCoalOilN
93、atural gasTrillion USD(2022)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|23 Overview and key findings Expanding access to finance will be vital:sustainable finance has weathered the storm of the energy crisis,but remains heavily concentrated in advanced economies Sustainable debt issuances by issuer type,and r
94、egion,2016-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:SSA=sovereigns,supranationals and agencies;this category also includes municipals;Other=asset-based securities and project bonds.Sources:Bloomberg;Refinitiv.300 600 9001 2001 5001 800200022Billion USD(2022)CorporatesFinancialsSSAOtherAdvanced
95、 economiesChinaOther EMDEs52%32%16%78%12%10%USD 1.5 trillionUSD 1.6 trillionSustainable debt issuances,2022Clean energy spending,2022 World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|24 Overview and key findings Clean energy investment is starting to flow,but imbalances point to continued risks ahead In the IEA Wo
96、rld Energy Outlook 2021,we wrote that“the world is not investing enough to meet its future energy needs IEA analysis has repeatedly highlighted that a surge in spending to boost deployment of clean energy technologies and infrastructure provides the way out of this impasse,but this needs to happen q
97、uickly or global energy markets will face a turbulent and volatile period ahead”.This picture is starting to change:global energy investment is picking up,and the rise in clean energy investment since 2021 is leading the way,outpacing the increase in fossil fuel investment by almost three-to-one.Cle
98、an electrification is leading the charge.If it continues to grow at the rate seen since 2021,then aggregate spending in 2030 on low-emission power,grids and storage,and end-use electrification would exceed the levels required to meet the worlds announced climate pledges(the APS).For some technologie
99、s,notably solar,it would match the investment required to get on track for a 1.5C stabilisation in global average temperatures(the NZE Scenario).However,progress has been uneven.Investment in expanding and modernising grids is lagging behind in many countries.A rising share of solar and wind needs t
100、o be accompanied by spending on technologies that provide greater flexibility to power systems.Supply chain and skills bottlenecks could constrain growth.And,above all,the geographical imbalances in investment need addressing,with clean energy investment in many emerging and developing economies gro
101、wing only slowly and the number of people without access to modern energy services remaining stubbornly high.Other pillars of clean energy transitions do not yet show the same positive dynamics as clean electrification.Investment in energy efficiency has been increasing,but is well off track to meet
102、 more ambitious climate scenarios.Investment in low-emission fuels is being spurred by new policy measures,but from a very low base.Spending on fossil fuels is most closely aligned with the 2030 needs of a scenario reflecting todays policy settings(STEPS),but producers need to watch closely how clea
103、n energy spending evolves,particularly the ways in which clean electrification affects demand for fuels in power generation,and for mobility and heat.The risks of locking in fossil fuel use are clear:fossil fuel investment in 2023 is now more than double the levels required to meet much lower demand
104、 in the NZE Scenario.The crucial open question is how quickly clean energy investment scales up in emerging and developing economies,where supportive strategies and policies will need to be accompanied by improved access to finance.For the moment,sustainable finance instruments remain concentrated i
105、n advanced economies,accounting for nearly 80%of sustainable debt issuance in 2022.Issuances elsewhere(outside China)are growing from a low base,with Indias successful first green bond a landmark in this sector.Scaling up these instruments and mobilising much greater support from development finance
106、 institutions will be critical to the continued broadening and acceleration of clean energy transitions.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|25 Power sector Power sector World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|26 Power sector Overview of power investment World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|27 Power sector Powe
107、r sector investment increased by around 12%in 2022 to USD 1.1 trillion with 2023 expected to see further growth to almost USD 1.2 trillion Global average annual investment in the power sector by category,2011-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Investment is measured as ongoing capital spending on new power c
108、apacity;all numbers throughout are in 2022 USD;Fossil fuel power includes unabated and abated power;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;2023e=estimated values for 2023.10%20%30%40%50%250 500 7501 0001 2200222023eBillion USD(2022)Battery storageElectricity grids
109、NuclearFossil fuel powerRenewable powerEMDEs excl.China(share,right axis)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|28 Power sector Advanced economies and China lead investment in renewable power generation and grids,while many other EMDEs struggle to mobilise sufficient capital for a clean and secure energy
110、 transition Average annual investment in the power sector by geography and category,2011-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:REP=renewable power;FFP=fossil fuel power;batteries are excluded here;2023e=estimated values for 2023.50 100 150 200 250 300REPGridsFFPNuclearREPGridsFFPNuclearREPGridsFFPNuclearAdvance
111、d economiesChinaOther EMDEsBillion USD(2022)-202021-23eWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|29 Power sector Investment in renewables,grids and batteries has accelerated during the global energy crisis,with capital spending on unabated fossil fuel power generation edging downwardsPower sector
112、 investment grew by 12%in 2022,topping USD 1 trillion for the first time,with 2023 expected to see further growth to almost USD 1.2 trillion.Our tracking of capital flows and investments suggests that a major effect of the global energy crisis has been to accelerate the deployment of clean energy te
113、chnologies.The strong underlying economics of renewables have been reinforced by policy packages such as the US Inflation Reduction Act,the EU REPowerEU plan and Fit-for-55 package,and Indias renewables targets.Renewables and grids are the leading components of power investment and are expected to a
114、ccount for more than USD 1 trillion of investment on their own in 2023.Global spending on renewables hit a new record in 2022 at almost USD 600 billion,driven by solar PV and wind(especially in China)despite cost and supply chain pressures.Given the reinforced push for renewables in a range of large
115、 markets(e.g.USA,China,Europe,India)and the gradual unwinding of supply chain problems,we are now expecting higher capacity additions for wind and especially solar PV than last year,with 2023 expected to see another 10%increase in renewables investment to more than USD 650 billion.Capital expenditur
116、e on fossil fuel power increased marginally in 2022 to almost USD 110 billion but this was still significantly lower than the annual average of USD 135 billion in the period 2016-2021.While coal-fired power investment decreased,investment in gas-fired power picked up.Spending on fossil fuel power wi
117、th CCUS rose but remains marginal at USD 1 billion.Spending on dispatchable clean generation,on the other hand,continues its downward investment trend,with increased spending on nuclear not able to compensate for a drop in hydropower investment.Spending on electricity grids built on its 2021 rebound
118、 with a further 8%increase in 2022,but initial signs suggest a flattening in spending in 2023.Most of the infrastructure investment is in advanced economies and China,underpinned by the need to enable greater electrification and meet grid balancing demands in power systems that are increasingly rene
119、wables rich.Spending on grids in most emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs)is falling behind,a worrying signal given the prospect of rapid increases in electricity demand.Battery storage investment in 2022 grew in line with our strong expectations and is set for further growth in 2023,enco
120、uraged by the US Inflation Reduction Act and other incentives in Europe,Australia,China,Japan and Korea.Despite upbeat expectations for clean power,final investment decisions(FIDs)in 2022 had a mixed picture.Solar project approvals remain strong,while offshore wind lags behind.FIDs for coal-and gas-
121、fired plants reached their highest level since 2016,driven almost entirely by China,reflecting security of supply concerns.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|30 Power sector Outside China,power sector spending in many EMDEs remains low;it needs to pick up quickly to meet access,security and sustainab
122、ility goalsPower sector investment in EMDEs outside China has been averaging around USD 230 billion per year in recent years,only around 20%of the global total.This figure increased by 7%in 2022,but investment spending in advanced economies and in China rose more rapidly by 14%,reaching more than US
123、D 850 billion.A number of EMDEs are stepping up their efforts to deploy clean power.India remains a dynamic market,in particular for solar PV,with policy makers also focused on building out the grid,promoting new sources of flexibility in power markets,and encouraging the domestic supply chain.India
124、s Production-Linked Incentive(PLI)scheme is providing incentives for domestic manufacturing of high-efficiency solar PV modules as well as for batteries.Renewable power investment is also starting to pick up in the Middle East,notably for solar in Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and Oman.Deplo
125、yment is on a steady upward curve in Brazil.South Africa concluded the sixth round of its Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program.New power projects are urgently needed to relieve chronic power shortages:the South African authorities even declared a“state of disaster”in the e
126、nergy sector from February-April 2023.Investments in renewables should also benefit from the Just Energy Transition Partnerships(JETPs)that South Africa,Indonesia and Viet Nam have signed with international partners and financial institutions.JETPs aim to boost clean power and reduce reliance on coa
127、l assets,while addressing the social implications of change.Kenya also lifted a ban on new power purchase agreements(mainly affecting renewable projects).However,the landscape for renewable power investment in many EMDEs remains difficult,and much more needs to be done to improve perceived and real
128、investment risks and to reduce costs.Greater investment in clean power in EMDEs is hindered by a range of barriers such as higher financing costs,high debt burdens of electric utilities and the absence of clear clean energy strategies,as well as challenges related to land acquisition,enabling infras
129、tructure and skilled labour.Low levels of spending on grids(even compared with past spending averages in EMDEs)exacerbate challenges with security of supply and electricity access,as well as leaving EMDEs ill-prepared for increased investment in variable renewables.A step up in concessional funding
130、and other dedicated multilateral support is critically important to increase clean power investment.The upcoming Summit for a New Global Financial Pact,which aims to define a new financial pact with EMDEs,will be an important stepping stone towards realising this goal.A forthcoming joint IEA-IFC rep
131、ort will provide analysis and recommendations.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|31 Power sector Generation World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|32 Power sector Variable renewables are by far the most dynamic sectors for investment in power generation Global annual investment in the power generation by
132、selected technology,2020-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Gas-fired generation investment includes both large-scale plants and small-scale generating sets and engines;hydropower includes pumped-hydro storage;2023e=estimated values for 2023.Sources:IEA analysis based on calculations from IRENA(2023)and S&P
133、Global(2023).50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Solar PVWindHydroNuclearCoalpowerGaspowerBillion USD(2022)2020202120222023eWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|33 Power sector despite tight supply chains and higher input costs pushing up renewable project costs in many markets IEA global wind turbine and so
134、lar PV module producer price index and average manufacturing prices among key regions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The index,developed by the IEA,tracks price movements of a fixed basket of solar PV panels and wind turbines against a base period(Q4 2019);prices are weighted according to the shares of global
135、average annual investment in 2020-2022:solar modules(58%)and wind turbines(42%);wind turbine prices reflect a weighted average of both onshore and offshore turbine manufacturers prices,noting that this is more sensitive to changes in onshore turbine prices given that they account for a larger share
136、of production;given that the supply of solar PV modules is highly geographically concentrated(with the majority of production based in China),and data availability constraints,where only the price trends of Chinese manufacturers are included.Sources:IEA calculations based on companies financial repo
137、rts,Bloomberg data and BNEF.80 95 110 125 140 155 20022Index(Q4 2019=100)Global indexEuropean turbine manufacturersChinese turbine manufacturersChinese solar panel manufacturersWind turbine and solar module producer price index 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.22002020212022Mil
138、lion USD/MWManufacturers average selling priceWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|34 Power sector Power company investment plans remain robust,even as levelised costs for renewables moved higher LCOE estimates of utility-scale solar PV and wind;and average annual short-term investment guidelines of se
139、lected power companies IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:LCOEs calculations assume increases in the cost of capital in Europe,United States and India between Q1 2021 and Q4 2022 for both solar PV and wind,while remaining constant in 2023e.Capital costs are assumed to increase in Q4 2022 across the four regions(ex
140、cept wind in China)and reduce or remain flat in 2023,though not totally compensating for the 2022 increase.Capacity factors are consistent with WEO 2022.IRA effects assume a 26 USD/MWh of production tax credit.Annual company investment reflects nominal capital spending guidelines(for all group-level
141、 related activities)published in annual reports or strategic plans;for example,if a company announced an investment of USD 15 billion over 2020-2023 and USD 18 billion over 2023-2025(most recent announcement)this is reflected as USD 5 billion(previous)and USD 6 billion(current);figures for Indian co
142、mpanies were not included as data were unavailable;the drop in Enels figures is due to Enel streamlining its business(e.g.exiting Argentina,Peru and Romania),but its investment in other geographies remains as planned.2023e=estimated values for 2023;IRA=US Inflation Reduction Act;LCOE=levelised cost
143、of electricity Sources:Companies annual reports.10 20 30 40 50 60 70 802022 USD/MWhQ1 2021Q4 2022United StatesChinaIndia2023eEuropeIRA effects in PPA pricesSolar PVOnshore wind 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18USD billionPreviousCurrent guidelineEuropean companiesAmericanChineseWorld
144、 Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|35 Power sector Some key parts of the power investment chain are showing greater signs of stress Profitability of major wind turbine manufacturers and asset owners;and change in bond rating of SOEs in selected EMDEs IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:EBIT=earnings before interest and t
145、axes,annual basis;European and US manufacturers represent a weighted average(by market share)of Vestas,Siemens Gamesa,Nordex and GE;Chinese manufacturers represent a weighted average(by market share)of Goldwind,Windey and Mingyang;European and US asset managers represent a simple average of Nextera,
146、rsted,Iberdrola,RWE and Enel;SOE=state-owned enterprise;“Worse”means that the bonds rating has been downgraded;“Better”means that the bonds rating has been upgraded;“No data”means no data on rating available;“Foreign”refers to bonds issued in USD or EUR.Sources:Companies annual reports,Wood MacKenzi
147、e and Bloomberg.-5%0%5%10%15%20%202020212022European and US turbine manufacturersChinese turbine manufacturersEuropean and US renewable asset ownersEBIT margin-wind industry segments 5 10 15 20 25LocalForeignLocalForeignLocalForeignCPE(Mexico)ESKOM(SA)PLN(Indonesia)Amount issued(billions)EqualWorseB
148、etterNo dataChange in bond rating-current vs initial ratingWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|36 Power sector New policies are providing an important boost to the prospects for low-emission power Key low-emission power policies introduced and proposals announced in 2022-2023 in selected countries and
149、 regions Region Policies United States Approval of the Inflation Reduction Act o Tax credit extensions for solar PV and wind:production credit(per unit of energy)and investment credit(capital costs)o Investment tax credit also available for battery storage and zero-emission nuclear o Financial suppo
150、rt for grids and manufacturing clean power equipment China 14th Five-Year Plan raises renewable target to 33%of power consumption by 2025(and 18%for non-hydro renewables)Europe Announcements by the European Commission:REPowerEU Plan,Net-Zero Industry Act proposal and other potential reforms o Increa
151、se EU 2030 renewables target to 45%by 2030(whole energy matrix not just power)o Fast-tracking permitting process plus EUR 225 billion in loans for grids o Proposed reform of market design and technology-specific targets for EU manufacturing capacity Nine European countries committed to boost offshor
152、e wind capacity to over 120 GW by 2030 and over 300 GW by 2050 Indonesia and Southeast Asia Indonesia introduced its JETP o Renewable energy target up to at least 34%of power generation by 2030,accelerate coal power plant retirement and achieve net zero emissions in the power sector by 2050 o USD 20
153、 billion of initial funding Thailand introduced new regulation for renewable power procurement,establishing the feed-in tariffs payable by distribution companies and capacity targets(additional 5 GW of biogas,solar,solar with storage,and wind)Philippines set out a 35%renewable electricity generation
154、 target by 2030(from about 20%in 2021)and 50%by 2040 India Continues to expand the Production-Linked Incentive(PLI)scheme o 50 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity o 40 GW of solar PV manufacturing capacity to be added in next three years Japan Government is studying extension to lifetime of nuclea
155、r power plants(beyond 60 years)Korea Plan to increase nuclear power to 35%of total generation and renewables to 31%from 10%in 2021 by 2036 Coal-fired power to reduce to 15%South Africa Government concluded sixth renewable auction Brazil Planning two major transmission auctions in 2023,including the
156、largest ever held in Brazil(in investment terms)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|37 Power sector But getting projects up and running has often been slow,putting the focus on permitting and other practical obstacles facing investors Capacity awaiting permits and under construction and average permit
157、ting times in the United States and major European renewable markets IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:United States,United Kingdom and France show capacity in December 2023;Italy shows capacity in January 2023 and Spain in March 2023;wind includes onshore and offshore.Sources:Red Elctrica,Terna,Ministre de la Tr
158、ansition Energtique,National Grid and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory;BNEF(average waiting times).100 200 300FranceSpainUnitedKingdomItalyGWSolar(in operation)Wind(in operation)Solar(awaiting permit)Wind(awaiting permit)Capacity in operation and awaiting a permit 2 4 6 8YearsAverage permitting
159、 timeEU regulatory limit2030 solar PV&wind target 5001 0001 500USUnited StatesWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|38 Power sector Solar PV made most of the headlines for power generation investment in 2022,although increased financing and capital costs were also part of the storyCapital spending on ne
160、w generation has been setting new records each year,driven by strong performances from solar,and we expect the same to be true in 2023.China alone added over 100 GW of solar PV capacity in 2022,almost 70%higher than in 2021,and annual installations increased by 40%or more in Europe,India and Brazil,
161、despite inflation and supply chain issues.Investment in wind power increased,albeit less than solar(as mainly large projects continue to face delays)while spending on hydropower continued to fall.Nuclear power investment also rose,mainly in advanced economies and China.More than a decade after the a
162、ccident at Fukushima Daiichi,an increasing number of countries are taking a fresh look at how nuclear technologies might provide low-emissions and dispatchable power.Investment in fossil-fuel based electricity was flat,reflecting lower spending on unabated coal power alongside higher investment in g
163、as-fired plants.Despite the growth in many sectors,power generation investment in 2022 faced some headwinds.On the financing side,the cost of borrowing increased as base rates rose to fight inflation.Equity risk premiums the premium above risk-free rates that equity investors expect for an average u
164、nit have gone up across the world.This is problematic as highly leveraged companies,like many power utilities,may have to tap into the equity market for financing as higher leverage(more debt)could affect their credit ratings.A global producer price index of solar PV modules and wind turbines develo
165、ped by the IEA shows that prices fell to a low point in Q3 2020 but then were pushed up by tight markets for materials and labour,ending 20%higher in Q4 2022.Module prices were around 20%higher in early 2022 y-o-y,but started to come down in early 2023 as input costs declined(solar grade silicon and
166、 wafers)and manufacturing capacity expanded(largely in Asia).Wind turbine costs,especially from European manufacturers,remained high in early 2023,at 35%above the low levels of early 2020.China has followed a different path.Debt financing remained favourable as the Peoples Bank of China has kept ref
167、erence lending rates low to boost the economy and renewable projects can access preferential rates.Capital costs for solar PV increased slightly in 2022 before falling back,while wind capital costs were less affected than elsewhere.The price of local wind turbines continued to decrease given Chinese
168、 manufacturers ability to manage supply chain pressures and a growing number of orders.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|39 Power sector Solar and wind retain a strong competitive advantage,although pressures are higher in the wind sector and the conditions for mobilising capital in EMDEs remain cha
169、llenging The rise in project costs has translated into a higher levelised cost of electricity(LCOE)across technologies.LCOEs for solar PV and wind,having fallen for years,increased in 2022,but remained a more attractive proposition than fossil fuel power for new generation in most markets around the
170、 world.In Europe the average LCOE for solar PV increased by 30%and by 15%for onshore wind between early 2021 and late 2022,despite continued gains from technology learning.However,absolute values remain low and capital cost pressures are expected to ease in 2023.Investment plans by major European ut
171、ilities also remain strong.Wholesale power prices have fallen compared to a year ago,but are still high in historical terms,an additional signal for investors,although it remains to be seen how the proposed changes to the EU power market design may affect investors views.Recent years have been chall
172、enging for the wind equipment manufacturing industry outside China.The average ratio of earnings before interest and taxes(EBIT)to revenues among the largest European and US turbine producers has been meagre if not negative.This measure of a companys profitability saw a big drop in 2022 as revenues
173、were hit hard by supply chain delays,inflationary pressures and in some cases impairments due to Russias invasion of Ukraine.Higher prices are also contributing to lower order intakes,even as the help near-term results,which are also being assisted by improvements in the service business.Most EMDEs
174、outside China are experiencing higher costs,especially where investments are denominated in US dollars.State-owned utilities often the main investor and counterparty with the private sector in EMDEs remain financially fragile,and rising interest rates and falling domestic currencies make it harder t
175、o pay their existing debt,let alone invest.More attractive conditions for renewables investments in advanced economies may also discourage capital from flowing into countries with higher real or perceived risks.Indias size and well-developed policy frameworks,especially for solar,underpin continued
176、strong interest from investors and project developers,although offtaker and transmission risks remain.LCOEs for solar PV and onshore wind rose in the United States in 2022,but PPAs are set for important reductions given the tax extensions in the Inflation Reduction Act.In China LCOEs for solar PV we
177、re also up in 2022,while wind LCOEs fell.After subsidies for onshore wind were removed in 2020,investment appetite reduced,forcing domestic turbine makers to slash prices.Increased orders helped offset lower prices for manufacturers,but competition remains strong.Manufacturers have also focused on b
178、uilding bigger turbines,and on innovation and cost control.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|40 Power sector Ambitious new policies to accelerate clean power investments are in place,but there are uncertainties over how quickly these will translate into flows of new projectsThe passage of the Inflat
179、ion Reduction Act in the United States was a major legislative milestone that included significant financial support for low-emission technologies.It includes new or extensions to tax credits for wind,solar PV and storage based on project investment costs(USD)and generation(USD/MWh),tax credits for
180、local manufacturing and grid upgrades,and various other forms of assistance.The European Union is looking to increase deployment of renewables across power generation and the end-use sectors as part of its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55%by 2030 and to address the energy marke
181、t disruption caused by Russias invasion of Ukraine.A provisional agreement was reached in March 2023 to raise the EUs renewable target for 2030 to a minimum of 42.5%of final energy consumption,up from the current 32%target.The European Commission also proposed a Net Zero Industry Act,which targets d
182、omestic manufacture of up to 40%of Europes clean energy technology deployment needs by 2030.The act would cover eight technologies and simplify regulation,supported by existing funding channels(e.g.InvestEU;the Recovery and Resilience Facility).In many parts of Asia,policies supporting both renewabl
183、es and nuclear power are on the rise.Japan is discussing legislation to extend nuclear power plant lifetimes beyond 60 years and South Koreas 10th Electricity Plan incorporates a slightly higher share of nuclear power in the generation mix(35%by 2036)as well as a sharp increase in the share of renew
184、ables to 31%by 2036(up from 7.5%in 2021)Among EMDEs,Indonesia and Viet Nam concluded JETPs to accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewables.Indonesias JETP,for instance,expects to receive USD 20 billion of initial funding over the next three to five years,with capita
185、l coming from both commercial and concessional sources,and private as well as public money.Getting projects up and running at the scale and speed needed to reach targets is proving hard,with challenges beyond prices.Permitting has been a key concern for investors and financiers recently,especially f
186、or wind and grid infrastructure.Europe has been at the centre of this debate,with substantial renewable capacity in the pipeline waiting for permits,and queues well beyond set limits.Governments are now enacting policies to address this issue.Other risks include transmission bottlenecks(either missi
187、ng or poor-quality grid infrastructure to connect new renewable projects)and shortages of skilled labour.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|41 Power sector Final investment decisions(FIDs)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|42 Power sector More than 40 GW of coal-fired plants were approved in 2022;almo
188、st all of this was in China,reflecting a strong electricity security priority even as low-emissions power scales up fast Coal-fired power generation capacity subject to a FID by geography(left)and segment(right),2016-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:FID=final investment decision;FIDs are an indication of th
189、e scale of future capacity to come online in the coming few years;the IEA tracks projects that reach financial close or begin construction to provide a forward-looking indicator of future capacity additions and spending activity.Source:IEA calculations based on McCoy Power Reports(2023).20 40 602016
190、 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GWChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaRest of world 20 40 602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022High efficiencySubcriticalWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|43 Power sector Despite high natural gas prices,FIDs for unabated gas-fired power generation rose in 2022 Gas-fired power genera
191、tion capacity subject to a FID by geography(left)and segment(right),2016-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:MENA=Middle East and North Africa;CCGT=combined-cycle gas turbine;OCGT=open-cycle gas turbine;FIDs are an indication of the scale of future capacity to come online in the coming years;the IEA tracks pro
192、jects that reach financial close or begin construction to provide a forward-looking indicator of future capacity additions and spending activity.Source:IEA calculations based on McCoy Power Reports(2023).20 40 60 802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022GWChinaUnited StatesMENAOther AsiaSoutheast AsiaEur
193、opeRest of world20%40%60%80%20 40 60 802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CCGTOCGTNet importers of natural gas(share,right axis)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|44 Power sector In 2022 FIDs for unabated fossil fuel generation reached levels last seen in 2016 on the back of security of supply concern
194、s and diversificationGlobally,FIDs for unabated fossil fuel power generation increased by 40%year-on-year to more than 100 GW in 2022,the highest level since 2016,driven by newly approved coal and natural gas capacity.China accounts for the vast majority of these FIDs(95%in coal-fired power)and if C
195、hina is excluded the global growth rate falls to just 3%.A severe electricity supply crisis in late 2021 and continued market strains amid a heatwave in 2022 provide the backdrop to Chinas proposed expansion in capacity.The strains were caused by drought conditions that lowered hydropower output,inf
196、lexible interprovincial electricity export contracts,and a combination of rising coal prices and low wholesale tariffs that led some generators to stop operations.This triggered various regulatory changes,as well as central government support for more coal-and gas-fired power investment.The investme
197、nt case for this new capacity is hardly clear-cut given the rapid pace of renewable deployment.For the moment,it remains unclear whether this new capacity if and when it comes online in a few years will be used primarily for flexibility purposes or for baseload generation;the implications for emissi
198、ons will depend on the answer to this question.In Indonesia,in contrast to 2021,there were no new coal FIDs,an encouraging signal given the countrys net zero pledge and JETP.In other Southeast Asian countries and the rest of the world(e.g.Lao PDR and Russia),only a very limited number of new coal-fi
199、red plants were approved for development,reflecting pledges from a range of countries and financial institutions to stop backing their construction(notably the Chinese commitment to stop building or financing coal plants abroad).Those approved continue to be of relatively high efficiency,with subcri
200、tical facilities dropping to below 5%of new FIDs.Similar to coal,FIDs for gas-fired power generation amounted to 65 GW in 2022 a jump of almost 40%despite very high prices for natural gas in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine.Some of these new FIDs were from gas-importing countries that were ex
201、posed to price pressures from natural gas markets.China is a notable example,approving almost twice as much gas-fired capacity as in 2021.This was largely in the heavily populated southeastern coastal regions,within reach of LNG import facilities;worries about hydro availability also supported decis
202、ions to go ahead with gas.Other regions seeing new gas FIDs were largely those with large resources,such as the United States and the MENA region.While FIDs in Southeast Asia(especially in Thailand and Viet Nam)rose year-on-year,decisions to go ahead with gas-fired power in other parts of Asia,outsi
203、de China,fell by more than 60%.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|45 Power sector Irrespective of the recent increase in new coal FIDs,the pipeline of new coal,hydropower and nuclear projects is slowing,while gas-fired projects are accelerating Annual average capacity additions and FIDs by capacity,2
204、019-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Annual average FIDs are an indication of the scale of future capacity to come online in the next few years;the time it takes for a new plant to go online can differ;for example,a new natural gas plant can take three years,while a new nuclear plant can take seven years.So
205、urces:IEA calculations based on McCoy Power Reports(2023),S&P Global(2023)and IAEA(2023).20 40 60 80Natural gasCoalHydroNuclearGWAnnual average capacity additionsAnnual average FIDsWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|46 Power sector FIDs for utility-scale renewables remained around 2021 levels in 2022
206、,with higher solar but a decline in approvals for wind FIDs for utility-scale renewable plants,2016-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Excludes large hydropower;Other includes biomass,waste-to-energy,geothermal,small hydro and marine.Source:IEA calculations based on Clean Energy Pipeline(2023).50 100 150 200
207、250 300 350 400200022Billion USD(2022)OtherWindSolarWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|47 Power sector Buoyant FIDs for solar kept utility-scale renewables around record levels in 2022FIDs for utility-scale renewable plants remained high in 2022,following a record year in 2021.F
208、IDs for solar projects increased significantly,reaching more than USD 180 billion 20%more than in 2021 while wind power experienced a drop,in particular for offshore wind projects,which fell more than 50%.The total number of utility-scale FIDs increased,with deals above USD 1 billion playing a large
209、r role.In monetary terms,utility-scale renewable approvals in China decreased by around 5%overall,though increasing by the last quarter of 2022(48%higher than in the third quarter).In India,by contrast,decisions for renewables projects tripled,pushed by its 2022 target for 100 GW of installed solar
210、capacity and the continuing push for innovative“round-the-clock tenders”(combining renewables with storage).A similar jump was observed in South Africa,as the country aims to tackle a severe electricity crisis and diversify its electricity mix,supported by the investment plan of its own JETP and a g
211、roup of leading countries.FIDs in the European Union remained flat,while in the United States they increased by around 5%,with US approvals in particular accelerating in the second half of 2022 after the passage of its Inflation Reduction Act.FIDs for large hydropower and nuclear power plants decrea
212、sed significantly to 14 GW and 4 GW respectively(from 20 GW and 6 GW in 2021,respectively).In 2022 China was the only region to start the construction of a new nuclear power plant,while investment in large hydropower was dominated by China and India.Pumped hydro,which can serve as an energy storage
213、facility,constituted 90%of the hydropower FIDs.After an uptick in 2021,the declining pipeline for these projects is a reason for concern given their potential to support power sector decarbonisation and supply security.However,additional capital is being spent on modernising and extending the lifeti
214、mes of existing plants,which is not captured by FIDs;and policy is becoming more supportive to new project approvals in future.Renewable projects have shown uneven growth,with solar gaining relevance in the mix and wind facing major challenges particularly for offshore wind energy,which has experien
215、ced setbacks due to construction delays and supply chain constraints.Furthermore,fossil fuel power FIDs have risen as many countries have prioritised energy security projects.However,as Covid-19 regulations are now largely lifted,supply chain pressures easing and prices for key components such as cr
216、itical minerals are moderating,there is growing support for renewable energy aided by supportive policies in key regions.Recent examples are the US Inflation Reduction Act and Germanys USD 31 billion push to expand wind and solar.This is expected to lead to an increase in FIDs for utility-scale rene
217、wables in 2023.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|48 Power sector Electricity grids and battery storage World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|49 Power sector Investment in power grids continues to rise in advanced economies and China,with a rising share of spending on digitalisation Investment in power g
218、rid infrastructure by geography(left)and segment(right),2016-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Automation and communication include both distribution and transmission;2023e=estimated values for 2023.Sources:IEA analysis based on transmission and distribution companies financial statements,and Guidehouse(202
219、2).10%20%30%40%100 200 300 4002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023eDistribution(left axis)Transmission(left axis)Smart metersAutomation&communicationEV infrastructureTotal digital 100 200 300 4002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023eUnited StatesChinaEuropeOECD PacificOtherBillion USD(2022)Worl
220、d Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|50 Power sector but many EMDEs outside China still face challenges in mobilising capital for infrastructure development Advanced economies and China continue to lead investment in grids,together accounting for 80%of the global spending.Investment in electricity grids is
221、 growing at a stable pace in advanced economies,with capital expenditure rising 6%in 2022,and China seeing a steeper 16%rate of growth in investment,despite investment in 2021-2023 overall being lower than in the previous three-year period.US capital spending on grids remains largely concentrated on
222、 enhancing reliability and upgrading outdated infrastructure.The amount invested in this area in 2022 was almost USD 90 billion,around 7%more than in 2021.Europes spending rose at a similar rate,reaching USD 65 billion.Chinas investment continues to grow,especially in ultra-high voltage transmission
223、 projects,with over USD 22 billion worth of projects in the second half of 2022 and the start of 2023.Overall,grid investment in EMDEs(excluding China)has been low in recent years,with 2019-2022 average annual spending around a third lower than in the 2015-2018 period.The Covid-19 pandemic,a focus o
224、n affordability for consumers and constrained balance sheets have left grid investment feeble.Privately financed transmission and distribution investment is also low,outside specific regions such as Latin America,where private finance is gaining more relevance.In some regions it is not even allowed.
225、Africa still shows low levels of investment in absolute terms,despite its enormous access needs.In 2022,however,investment in grids increased significantly across the continent.In South Africa,investment rose by a third to USD 290 million,albeit still short of the investment required by its 2023-202
226、7 JETP.The domestic regulator recently approved an 18%tariff increase that should strengthen Eskoms balance sheet and provide financial relief to the power system.Indias investment picked up in 2022,focused on both expanding its network as well as improving efficiency and better supporting the integ
227、ration of renewables into the grid.The Green Energy Corridor Phase II was approved in 2022,which entails a budget of over USD 1.4 billion being spent over the next four years on capacity additions(lines and substations),interregional transmission and neighbouring links for trade.Indias 2022 spending
228、 still remains about a third below its 2015-2018 annual investment average.Digital spending plays a critical role in enhancing the reliability,flexibility and efficiency of power grids.There is an increasing focus on the distribution segment,which now represents over 75%of the total digital spend.Mo
229、reover,there has been a substantial upswing in investment in EV charging infrastructure,which has doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|51 Power sector If policymakers and regulators do not provide the necessary incentives for investment in grid spending,it
230、could pose a significant obstacle to the clean energy transitions Grid investment level with current growth trend and gap to reach NZE Scenario trajectory IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:IEA estimation applying the compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 2019 to 2023e to grid investment between 2024 and 2030;NZE=IE
231、A Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario;2023e=estimated values for 2023.100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8002023e2024202520262027202820292030NZE 2030Billion USD(2022)Investment level with 2019-2023e CAGRGapWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|52 Power sector Investment in battery storage is set for continued
232、rapid growth in 2023,notably in utility-scale battery systems Battery storage investment by geography(left)and segment(right),2016-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2023e=estimated values for 2023.Sources:IEA calculations based on Clean Horizon(2023),BNEF(2023),China Energy Storage Alliance(2023).10 20 30 40
233、2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023eBillion USD(2022)United StatesChinaEuropeOECD PacificOtherUtility-scaleBehind-the-meter2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023eWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|53 Power sector Investment in battery storage more than doubled in 2022,driven by institutional inv
234、estment and solar developers The energy system is undergoing a major transformation towards a more flexible grid that can respond to demand and price volatility.In 2022 expenditure on battery storage exceeded USD 20 billion,with the United States,China,and Europe accounting for 90%of spending.This c
235、oncentration can be attributed to the technological complexities of the value chain and the need for supportive policies and market designs.China has demonstrated its commitment to battery storage through significant investments,such as the construction of the worlds largest battery storage peak-sha
236、ving power station.China has also recently established its first peak-shaving capacity market,which regulates pricing limits for transactions and compensation for demand response.In total,spending on battery storage in China tripled in 2022 to almost USD 8 billion.2023 is expected to see this increa
237、se to USD 14 billion on the back of favourable economics for utility-scale battery storage and strong policy support.In Europe,although hydro storage remains predominant,investment in battery projects is rapidly gaining ground,reaching USD 5 billion in 2022.A joint venture partnership between Next E
238、nergy(70%)and Eelpower(30%),for example,could create up to USD 370 million in investment opportunities.Spending in the United States totalled USD 6 billion in 2022,50%more than the previous year.The expectation of increased benefits under the Inflation Reduction Act(see next page)may affect the timi
239、ng of certain projects,but the environment is increasingly supportive.Consequently,we expect battery storage investments to more than double in the US to USD 13 billion in 2023.Asia Pacific(excluding China)invested 27%more than last year,reaching more than USD 1 billion in 2022,with 2023 investments
240、 expected to triple.Indias government,for example,has ambitious targets for battery storage.The government is also supporting the creation of a domestic value chain for the battery industry with financial allocations of over USD 2 billion under the National Programme on Advanced Chemistry Cell(ACC)B
241、attery Storage.Other developing countries have also shown growth,although the absolute level of investment remains relatively low.Capital costs for batteries increased in 2022 for the first time in a decade due to various factors including tight supply chains for battery metals and a sharp increase
242、in demand.Despite the increase in battery capital costs,a clear regional differentiation still exists:China continues to see the lowest costs for utility-scale batteries,followed by Europe and the United States.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|54 Power sector Impact of the US Inflation Reduction Ac
243、t on battery storage Collectively,the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law offer an estimated USD 24 billion in federal investment in EVs,batteries and infrastructure,on top of tax credits.The long-term regulatory certainty also provides critical stability for private invest
244、ors in the sector.We estimate that the new federal support could reduce capital costs for battery storage by almost 15%,providing a significant boost to US battery storage investment,which is now expected to double in 2023.The act also includes provisions that could complicate the timing of investme
245、nt,such as domestic sourcing requirements for critical materials like lithium that could prevent some battery projects from benefiting.Several Chinese companies are responding to this situation:CATL,for example,recently announced a partnership with Ford to establish a USD 3.5 billion plant in Michig
246、an.In Europe the act sparked fears that its local content requirements would lead to private investment shifting away from the continent.Major European players such as Volkswagen,BMW and battery maker Northvolt announced new battery manufacturing investments after the US act was adopted.However,most
247、 of these announcements concern investment plans predating the act,which have now been accelerated,rather than displacing new European projects.Moreover,the European Union is now aiming to expand available funding for net zero industries via its Green Deal Industrial Plan.The United States and Europ
248、ean Union are also planning to deepen their economic relationship while addressing shared economic and national security challenges in the clean energy transition.Estimated impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act on average US capital costs for battery storage(in 2022 costs)IEA.BY CC 4.0.Sources:IE
249、A calculations based on BNEF(2023),Wood Mackenzie(2023)and Lazard(2023).200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 400Utility scaleBehind the meterUSD/kWEstimated cost reductionWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|55 Power sector Implications World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|56 Power sector Global power sector invest
250、ment is growing quickly but unevenly;secure and sustainable development of the power sector will require much higher investment in EMDEs outside China Investment in the power sector in 2021-2023e compared with investment for IEA scenarios in 2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:STEPS=IEA Stated Policies Scenari
251、o;APS=IEA Announced Pledges Scenario;NZE=IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario;CCUS=carbon capture and storage;2023e=estimated values for 2023.5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 000202120222023e2030STEPS2030APS2030NZEBillion USD(2022)200 400 600 8001 0001 200202120222023e2030STEPS2030APS2030NZEWorldEMDEs ex
252、cl.ChinaWorld Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|57 Power sector Despite positive signs,theres much more to be done to get the power sector on track for a 1.5-degree scenarioRecent years have seen considerable growth in clean power investment,and overall spending in generation,grids and storage would need
253、to rise by another 30%by 2030 to be consistent with announced climate pledges(IEA Announced Pledges Scenario APS).Aggregate investment trends offer reasons for optimism.The rate of growth seen in power sector capital expenditure over the last five years,if maintained,would be enough to surpass the 2
254、030 figure for the APS.However,the aggregate numbers mask imbalances across technologies and regions that would need to be addressed to ensure secure and sustainable development of the power sector.And todays global investment would need to more than double by 2030 to get on track for a 1.5-degree s
255、tabilisation in global average temperatures,as in the NZE Scenario.In particular,despite some bright spots such as renewables in India,power sector investment trends in most EMDEs(excluding China)are well off track for scenarios that meet national or global sustainable development goals.Our new anal
256、ysis suggests that power sector investment in EMDEs outside China could rise by 4%in 2023.It would need to increase by around 20%each year to reach the level projected in the NZE Scenario in 2030,with capital spending on renewables growing at an exceptionally steep rate of 30%every year(compared to
257、10%in advanced economies).The deficit in spending on grids in many EMDEs is also striking,and difficult to resolve given the financial condition of many utilities.Elsewhere,the growth trends for power sector investment are more encouraging.If China were to maintain its overall growth trend since 201
258、9,this would be consistent with the investment level required in 2030 for the NZE Scenario,with advanced economies coming close.Total power sector investment in China and advanced economies would need to grow by 5%and 10%every year between 2024 and 2030,respectively.Maintaining such high growth rate
259、s throughout the decade cannot of course be taken for granted,not least because supply chains need to be expanded,permits secured,flexibility requirements need to be managed and financing needs to be mobilised.Among the different technologies,the growth in global capital expenditure in the last five
260、 years,if maintained,is on track for an NZE Scenario only for a handful of technologies,led by solar PV and battery storage.Investment growth in wind and hydropower would need to increase considerably,and similarly in electricity grids(especially given their enabling role for renewables penetration)
261、.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|58 Fuel supply Fuel supply World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|59 Fuel supply Overview World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|60 Fuel supply Global investment in fuels rose in 2022 and is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 Global investment in fuel supply,2
262、010-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Oil,natural gas and coal include upstream and midstream investments.Low-emission fuels=modern bioenergy,low-emission hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.2023e=estimated values for 2023.200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 40020000022 2023
263、eLow-emission fuelsCoalNatural gasOilBillion USD(2022)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|61 Fuel supply Net income of the global oil and gas industry reached a record high of USD 4 trillion in 2022 Net income of the oil and gas industry,2008-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Net income is calculated from oil
264、and gas production at prevailing oil and gas prices(including subsidies)after operating costs but before taxes;“private companies”here includes listed and non-listed companies.5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0002008200920000022National oilcompaniesPriva
265、tecompaniesBillion USD(2022)World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|62 Fuel supply Record income in the oil and gas sector was used to increase shareholder returns and pay down debt,with only a fraction of free cash flow directed towards clean energy investments Distribution of cash spending by the oil an
266、d gas industry,2008-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on S&P Capital IQ.20%40%60%80%100%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Net debt repaidDividends plusbuybacks minusissuancesClean energycapital expenditureOil and gas capitalexpenditure World Energy
267、Investment 2023 PAGE|63 Fuel supply Ample revenues and high prices are pushing fossil fuel investment higher,but spending is constrained by worries about costs and long-term demand The year 2022 was an extraordinary year for fuel suppliers and traders.Russias invasion of Ukraine drove natural gas pr
268、ices to record levels in many parts of the world and oil prices back up to levels not seen since the mid-2010s.Net income from fossil fuel sales also rose to levels never seen before,with the global oil and gas industry earning around USD 4 trillion.High prices have spurred an increase in fossil fue
269、l investment:our expectation,based on analysis of the announced spending plans of all the large and medium-sized oil,gas and coal companies,is that investment in new fossil fuel supply will rise by 6%in 2023 to USD 950 billion.Some of the windfall gains in 2022 are going back into traditional areas
270、of supply,with companies seeking out“advantaged”resources that can be brought to market relatively quickly,at low cost and with low emission intensities.But many upstream projects are also facing cost pressures,as tight markets for services and labour and increased raw material costs erode the impac
271、t of increases in investment on real activity.Around half of the increase in upstream oil and gas investment in 2023 is likely to be a consequence of cost inflation.There are significant variations by region and type of company.Only Middle Eastern national oil companies(NOCs)are set to spend meaning
272、fully more in 2023 than they did in 2022,and they are the only subset of the industry spending more than pre-pandemic levels.Real spending on oil and gas supply by most European and North American companies remains below where it was in 2019.The headline increase in oil and gas spending represents l
273、ess than half of the cash flow that was available to the oil and gas industry.Between 2010 and 2019,three-quarters of cash outflows(account for capex,dividend and buybacks as well as net debt repaid)were invested into supply.In 2022,this dropped to less than half,with the other half used primarily f
274、or dividends,share buybacks and debt repayment.Hesitation about traditional oil and gas supply investments comes from a variety of factors,including worries about costs,uncertainties over longer-term demand,calls for the industry to step up its role in tackling climate change,and pressures from many
275、 investors and owners to focus on returns rather than production growth.The latter consideration is particularly visible for tight oil and shale gas operators.After a decade in which the shale industry failed to World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|64 Fuel supply generate any positive free cash flows,c
276、ompanies are now being rewarded for increasing value rather than volumes.Conventional oil and gas resources approved for development in 2023 are likely to be around 25%more than in 2022 but still well below the average level seen over the past decade.The increase in 2023 comes mainly from natural ga
277、s,reflecting market pressures as well as the push to substitute the shortfall in Russian deliveries.In the midstream sector,Russias cuts in pipeline gas deliveries to Europe have prompted higher spending on LNG infrastructure.New regasification capacity is coming into operation in the near term,but
278、new export facilities take longer to develop.Export projects already under development have been supplemented by a steady stream of new approvals during the energy crisis,promising a major 170 bcm wave of new LNG liquefaction capacity in 2025-2027.A key dilemma for investors in large,capitalintensiv
279、e gas supply projects is how to reconcile strong nearterm demand growth with uncertain but possibly declining longer-term demand.Robust coal demand and high prices during the global energy crisis are also feeding through into higher global investment.Coal investment increased to USD 135 billion glob
280、ally in 2022 and is expected to rise to nearly USD 150 billion in 2023.Nearly 90%of this investment takes place in the Asia Pacific region,notably in China and India where both countries have looked to expand production and develop new coal mines.Elsewhere,nearly all coal investment is focused on ma
281、intaining or boosting production from existing mines as concerns over climate change,increased emphasis on environmental,social and corporate governance,slow permitting and public opposition limit the availability of finance for new coal mine development.In aggregate,fossil fuel investments are now
282、broadly aligned with the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS)in 2030,a scenario based on todays policy settings.However,if the current momentum behind clean energy investment is maintained and clean energy deployment scales up quickly,demand for oil,natural gas and coal would come under much greater pres
283、sure.Benchmarking todays investment levels against scenarios that hit global climate goals illustrates a large potential mismatch.Todays fossil fuel investment spending is now more than double the levels needed in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario).The misalignment for coal is par
284、ticularly striking:todays investments are nearly six times the 2030 requirements of the NZE Scenario.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|65 Fuel supply The surge in revenue in 2022 offers a major opportunity to scale up investment in low-emission fuels;momentum is increasing,but remains well short of
285、where it needs to beThe surge in oil and gas company revenue in 2022 opens up the possibility for accelerated spending by fuel suppliers on energy transitions.This relates not only to increasing investment in low-emission fuels and technologies but also accelerating investment that reduces the emiss
286、ions intensity of existing fuel production.Oil and gas industry spending in these areas is rising,and significant new commitments are being made across the whole spectrum of clean fuels.Oil and gas companies boosted their spending on bioenergy to a record USD 11 billion in 2022 with a series of larg
287、e acquisitions of transport biofuel and biogas producers.The sectors commitments to carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS)and hydrogen are also growing;many of the largest projects announced in 2022 were underpinned by the participation of oil and gas majors and NOCs,several of which have ambi
288、tious capacity targets for 2030.To date,only a handful of these projects have been subject to a FID,meaning that annualised spending on hydrogen and CCUS projects was around USD 1 billion in 2022.Some NOCs have announced commitments to reduce supply chain emissions,such as Sonatrachs efforts to brin
289、g down flaring at Hassi Messaoud and at its LNG export infrastructure.Policies are increasingly supportive of these kinds of investment,notably via the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States,and the number of announced projects is rising,especially for clean hydrogen and CCUS.But as total inve
290、stment in low-emission sources of energy(including clean electricity,clean fuels and CCUS)was less than 5%of upstream investment by the oil and gas industry in 2022,much larger shifts in capital allocation are needed to clean up existing production and to position the oil and gas industry as part of
291、 the solution to climate change.For example,to maintain its 30%share of total capital spending on CCUS as seen in 2022,the oil and gas industry under the NZE Scenario would have to spend around USD 25 billion annually by 2030.Similarly,its spending levels on hydrogen supply would need to reach USD 1
292、9 billion by 2030,based on the current 12%share of investment in electrolyser projects.This is a crucial topic for COP28 in Dubai.COP President Sultan Al-Jaber has called on the oil and gas industry to“up its game,do more and do it faster”.With this in mind,the IEA will be producing new analysis on
293、the role of the oil and gas industry in net zero transitions in advance of COP28.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|66 Fuel supply Upstream oil and gas World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|67 Fuel supply Upstream oil and gas investment rose by 11%in 2022 and is expected to rise by 7%to USD 500 billion i
294、n 2023,but half of these increases are absorbed by rising costs Total upstream oil and gas investment Annual change in upstream oil and gas investment IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“Capital expenditure adjusted for cost inflation since 2019”adjusts capital expenditure for changes in finding and development co
295、sts using the IEAs upstream investment cost index that reflects the price of a basket of goods and services required to develop oil and gas fields.2023e=estimated values for 2023.Sources:financial report disclosure of a sample of 90 companies;cost index based on data from Bloomberg,FRED and IMF data
296、.200 400 600200222023eCapital expenditureCapital expenditure adjusted for cost inflation since 2019Billion USD(2022)-30%-15%0%15%--23e World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|68 Fuel supply Middle Eastern NOCs are the only segment of the industry spending more than befor
297、e Covid-19 Change in upstream oil and gas capital investment relative to 2019 by company type,2020-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2023e=estimated values for 2023.Sources:IEA analysis from annual reports and Rystad based on a sample of companies accounting for more than 70%of global production.-40-30-20-10
298、0 10 20 30 40MiddleEasternNOCsIndependentsRussianNOCsLatinAmericanNOCsAsianNOCsUSmajorsOtherNOCsEuropeanmajorsBillion USD(2022)2020202120222023e World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|69 Fuel supply The shale sector represents around a quarter of total upstream oil and gas investment even as operators pr
299、ioritise returns over production growth Share of oil and gas investment by asset type,2000-2023e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:“Other”includes coalbed methane,tight gas,coal-to-gas,extra-heavy oil and bitumen,gas-to-liquids,coal-to-liquids and kerogen oil.2023 values are estimates.Sources:IEA analysis from ann
300、ual reports and Rystad.20%40%60%80%100%20002002200420062008200022Onshore conventionalOtherOffshore conventionalTight oil and shale gas World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|70 Fuel supply Upstream companies are searching for“advantaged resources”amid rising pressures on costs and r
301、enewed energy security considerations Upstream oil and gas capital expenditure rose by 11%in 2022 and our initial estimate is for a 7%increase in upstream spending in 2023,to reach just over USD 500 billion.Companies are filtering investment opportunities through an increasingly demanding set of cri
302、teria.Advantaged investments need to be competitive on cost,but also have low emission intensities.Deepwater projects tend to score highly on these metrics and areas like Guyana,the US Gulf Coast,Brazil and emerging producers like Namibia(which has seen major discoveries in recent years)are attracti
303、ng a lot of investor interest.Another priority is short development cycles.It takes around three to five years on average globally from when a conventional project receives its FID to production starting.The use of standardised designs and existing infrastructure could shorten this time as well as r
304、educe development costs,but despite increasing efforts by the industry to do so,there is little evidence to date of a structural reduction in these development timelines.Another increasingly important consideration,in the light of the energy crisis,is geopolitical risk.Among other characteristics,co
305、mpanies and potential importers are also looking for“trustworthy barrels”,especially where they can be delivered relatively quickly.Even countries that are actively pursuing rapid energy transitions have proved ready to view some upstream investments through this energy security lens.Part of the rec
306、ent increase in spending reflects higher upstream costs:adjusting for rising costs,the increase in activity is only around half the headline increase in upstream investment.This increase in upstream costs in 2022 is due to service companies higher margins,the higher cost of drill pipes,casings,tubin
307、g and proppants,and,to a lesser extent,higher labour,cement and electricity costs.The US shale industry is experiencing a persistent labour shortage in the Permian Basin,the main producing area,where it is has been challenging to fill mechanical and electrical positions with local residents.Tight or
308、 underdeveloped markets for services and equipment can deter companies from reinvesting their windfall revenues back into the upstream.This is also a feature of deepwater developments where there are constraints on available rigs.Companies such as Petrobras that have actively tendered in recent year
309、s for deepwater drilling equipment and rigs have been in a position to move ahead with their upstream ambitions in Petrobras case its large offshore pre-salt fields.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|71 Fuel supply Windfall gains in 2022 have led to increased investment,but trends differ markedly bet
310、ween regionsMost large oil and gas companies have announced higher planned spending on upstream projects in 2023 from the levels seen in 2022,but only a handful are investing more in this area today than they did prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.There are major differences between regions.The increase
311、 in spending is concentrated mainly among large Middle Eastern NOCs.Notably,Saudi Aramco and ADNOC,invested considerably more in 2022 than in 2019(prior to the Covid-19 pandemic)and plan to boost investment further in 2023.Both companies are spending to meet announced capacity expansion targets for
312、2027 Saudi Aramco to reach 13 million barrels per day(mb/d)and ADNOC 5 mb/d and are also looking to boost local supply chains and manufacturing capacity.Since 2015 Saudi Aramco has been looking to source an increasing share of its procurement domestically as part of the In-Kingdom Total Value Add pr
313、ogramme.As of 2022,63%of Saudi Aramcos spending was directed to domestic suppliers,up from 35%in 2015(the target is to reach 75%by 2025).Saudi Aramco has announced a 30-60%increase in capital expenditure for 2023,to reach a total of USD 45-55 billion.A number of NOCs in Asia announced increases in s
314、pending for 2023 on the back of robust revenues in 2022.In Southeast Asia,Malaysias Petronas now plans to spend about USD 14 billion each year during 2023-2027,a rise of more than 40%compared with the average for the last five years.Indonesias Pertamina and Thailands PTTEP have also increased their
315、planned expenditure for the coming years.Natural gas is the prime target for the regions NOCs given the squeeze on supply and high prices during the energy crisis in 2022,with Malaysias floating ZLNG project and Indonesias Tangguh UCC project among those likely to move forward.Upstream investment by
316、 Chinese NOCs is expected to be broadly similar to levels seen in 2022 at around USD 60 billion per year.Chinas leading oil and gas companies are expanding their transition investments but their core mandate remains to ensure oil and gas security on their home market.Higher revenues may allow Chinas
317、 NOCs to target higher-cost domestic resources such as shale or coalbed methane.There is also a push by some Latin American companies to increase upstream oil and gas spending in 2023.These could come under pressure as some of the largest producers including Petrobras and Ecopetrol could be tasked b
318、y new government administrations to balance upstream investment with an increase in renewables and downstream investment.Currently,exploration and production account for three quarter of Petrobras total capital investment.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|72 Fuel supply US and European majors announ
319、ced record profits in 2022,but have not substantially modified the investment plans they made prior to the energy crisis.One notable exception is BP,which recalibrated its plans to cut upstream production by 40%and will now target a 25%reduction in output by 2030.By and large the European majors hav
320、e been trading a lower multiple of share price to earnings compared with their US counterparts,with European companies not getting much credit thus far from investors for their higher transition-related commitments.For US tight oil and shale gas,the number of rigs in operation rose steadily througho
321、ut the first half of 2022,but has since remained around this level.Companies continue to emphasise capital discipline and the importance of returning revenue to shareholders.Cost inflation has also dampened the appetite to increase investment.Investment in the shale sector in 2023 is expected to be
322、similar to 2019 levels,although the number of wells drilled and completed is likely to be substantially lower.The oil and gas investment picture in Russia is subject to a high degree of uncertainty,and as with many aspects of Russias energy sector,has been noticeably less transparent over the last y
323、ear,as companies stopped providing much detail on their financial performance or plans.The information that is available highlights some of the strains,including regular complaints from companies about higher taxes.Investments in Russias upstream sector rebounded from Covid-19-induced lows in 2020 b
324、ut as Russia becomes increasingly shut off from the global energy market,investments have sunk well below levels seen in the pandemic-affected years of 2020 and 2021.Rosneft managed to keep spending around 2021 levels,but the company has not provided any information on its 2023 investments.On notice
325、able exception is Gazprom which announced a 16%increase in investment in 2023 from 2022 levels,focusing mainly on the development of new production and gas processing centres as well as the Power of Siberia pipeline.Other large Russian companies,including Lukoil,Gazpromneft,Tatneft and Sibur,announc
326、ed at different points that their investment programmes are under review,but have not disclosed any further information.In the meantime,many of the upstream investments by western companies in Russia are in legal limbo,with the investors having announced their exits and written down the value of the
327、se investments.They are also facing official restrictions on their ability to divest from Russian assets.For the moment,there are few signs of other non-western players stepping in to take their places.World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|73 Fuel supply Midstream and downstream oil and gas World Energy
328、 Investment 2023 PAGE|74 Fuel supply Investment in new LNG projects is picking up,with a long line of projects looking to move ahead,but spending remains well below the levels seen in the 2010s Sanctioned LNG export capacity Annual investment spending on sanctioned projects IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Invest
329、ment spending is profiled assuming a three-to-six-year construction period.2023e=estimated values for 2023.2004006008001000 10 20 30 40 50200000222023202420252026bcm per yearBillion USD(2022)Middle EastRussiaAfricaNorth AmericaAustraliaOthersCumulative cap
330、acity(right axis)20406080200002120222023ebcm per year World Energy Investment 2023 PAGE|75 Fuel supply Interest in contracting for new LNG supply has risen following Russias invasion of Ukraine,but European buyers are wary of long-term commitmentsDespite k
331、ey gas price benchmarks reaching record highs,2022 was far from a bumper year for investment in LNG.FIDs were made for two projects in the United States(Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3)and a small floating LNG project in Malaysia(ZLNG Sabah).The total committed capital investment was USD 24 b
332、illion,similar to levels in 2021.Investment in regasification facilities,however,saw a large uptick in 2022 as EU-based companies announced,revived or accelerated plans for around 130 bcm of new LNG import capacity,including more than 20 projects based on floating storage regasification units(FSRUs)
333、.Around 45 bcm of new regasification capacity is expected to come online by the end of 2023,with Germany the focal point.The long-lived nature of gas infrastructure,alongside Europes 2050 climate target,has prompted a debate about the risk of lock-in or stranded assets for new LNG import infrastructure.Regasification terminals typically cost around USD 250/tonne of capacity,around a fifth of the c