1、KPMG International 2017 Change Readiness Index Assessing countries ability to manage change and cultivate opportunity What is the Change Readiness Index (CRI)? This index is designed to measure how effectively a countrys government, private and public enterprises, people and wider civil society anti

2、cipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to change and cultivate opportunity. Examples of change include: shocks such as financial and social instability and natural disasters political and economic opportunities and risks such as changes in government, technology and demographics. How can I use the

3、 index? A wide range of public and private organizations can apply the data and insights provided by the CRI, for example to: improve government policy by benchmarking national strengths and weaknesses and identifying areas in need of reform inform investment decisions by highlighting the strengths

4、and weaknesses of target countries build leading practices by stimulating debate on change readiness and learning from higher-ranking countries identify potential public and private sector partnerships by identifying areas to match capabilities and resources with highest priority needs. Explore the

5、CRI online tool To really bring the CRI data to life, take advantage of our interactive online tool to compare and contrast locations, view in-depth country profiles and create customized CRI reports for export. Go to reader Quick guide 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPM

6、G International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Contents Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 Index results 6 About the index 10 Key findings 12 CRI insights 16 Ageing populations: 17 Dividend or time bomb? Incom

7、e inequality and 21 conflict are drivers of global migration Conclusion 23 Using the CRI 24 About the online tool 26 Appendices 27 Appendix 1: Measuring change readiness 27 Appendix 2: Methodology 30 Appendix 3: Additional rankings tables 31 How KPMG can help you 44 About the authors 45 2017 KPMG In

8、ternational Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Foreword In recent years, weve witnessed tremendous progress in tackling multiple, massive international de

9、velopment and global health challenges. From providing life-saving antiretroviral drugs to people with HIV, to record numbers of children protected from preventable diseases through vaccinations, to improvements in equal gender access to education, health and economic development. We have seen progr

10、ess at a rate never experienced in human history, often thanks to effective, creative cooperation among sometimes unlikely partners in the public, private and NGO sectors. Increasingly, as with so much in our world, data are informing how we see the scope and contours of our global health and develo

11、pment challenges. Our ability to successfully tackle these issues hinges on access to accurate, in-depth data that reveal what conditions apply to specific geographies and what that means in terms of needed resources. Ithighlights where interventions have been most effective, and helps us understand

12、 why certain approaches work better in some places than others, all helping to illuminate the path forward. The Change Readiness Index (CRI) is an important tool that facilitates this approach, serving as a fact-based report card on national resiliency and readiness, which can be linked directly to

13、in-country policy and programming. As a source of reliable, independent data, it also helps reveal not only need, but urgency in a given area, which helps prioritize and hopefully accelerate future investment. The index is particularly helpful in increasing our ability to understand countries confro

14、nting various crises or transitions, where conditions can shift quickly and dependable data arent always easily accessible. On a personal note, I find that the CRI aligns with our focus at the foundation and across our affiliated initiatives on data-driven development, thus enabling our work to be m

15、ore directed to produce more powerful and more positive outcomes. As one example, the Clinton Health Access Initiative applies rigorous analytics to guide high-impact, actionable solutions, disciplined change processes and program measurement in access to medicines for HIV, malaria and more. This is

16、 crucial because a lack of quality evidence to inform health policy decisions can lead to waste, inefficiencies and missed opportunities. All of that has consequences for peoples lives around the world. While there are real reasons for the global development community to celebrate the progress weve

17、collectively achieved and a real basis for optimism that ever-better 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 2017 Change Readiness Inde

18、x 2 data and technology will continue to strengthen our capabilities there is still much to be done. We cannot mistake progress for success. Not only do we face a steady stream of new, immediate challenges that test on-the-ground resources, we also must dedicate greater attention to bold, long-term

19、systemic solutions, as recognized in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. With recent signs of reduced development funding, it will be more important than ever for diverse partners to come together to contribute various strengths, including innovative approaches, financial and human cap

20、ital and research insights like those offered by the 2017 CRI. By doing so, we can help drive and support highly-focused, efficient action and produce meaningful change that saves lives, improves individual well-being and enables positive community growth. As Vice Chair of the Clinton Foundation, Ch

21、elsea Clinton works to drive the vision and programs of an organization that convenes businesses, governments, NGOs and individuals to improve global health and wellness, increase opportunities for girls and women, create economic opportunity and help communities address climate change. She also ser

22、ves on the board of the Clinton Health Access Initiative, a separate, affiliated entity that works to strengthen in-country health systems and improve global access to lifesaving medicines and care. Clinton teaches at Columbia Universitys Mailman School of Public Health and is a passionate advocate

23、on global development issues. Chelsea Clinton Vice Chair, Clinton Foundation 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 2017 Change Readin

24、ess Index 3 Executive summary Economic openness Innovation, research over 98 percent of retirees receive pensions.8 These approaches have helped Japans elderly to be healthy and independent. These factors are all reflected in the countrys eighth rank in the Global AgeWatch Index, now included within

25、 the CRI. Although Japans investment in its elderly is tangible, it has come with a hefty price tag. Japan spends US$3,703 per capita on healthcare, 15th highest globally. Japan ranks poorly in the CRI fiscal and budgeting indicator at 108, leaving limited fiscal headroom for further social provisio

26、n for the old. Supporting an ageing population may have also come at a cost to younger groups: Japan ranks 98th in safety nets, despite its social protections provided to the elderly. Japan will need dynamic economic growth to support its ageing population. While it ranks 14th overall in the CRI ent

27、erprise pillar, more could be done to address this looming economic slowdown and the structural shifts in its workforce. Short of changing immigration policies to attract more foreign workers (only 1 percent of the population was foreign-born in 2000),9 near-term efforts are needed to create opportu

28、nities for productive work for older citizens, improve technology adoption that enhances worker productivity, as well as improved work-life balance for younger workers who are in the child-rearing ages. 8 Global AgeWatch Index 2015. 9 OECD data from International migration database. 10 Data from OEC

29、D Labour Market Statistics 2015, n.d. Adjusting labor market participation in Japan One opportunity for Japan to mitigate the negative impacts of supporting an ageing population is to raise labor force participation among the elderly and women. Japan already has one of the highest rates of elderly l

30、abor force participation, particularly among men with 72.2 percent of people aged 55 to 64 and 22 percent of people over the age of 65 are actively participating in the labor force.10 There is still plenty of room for growth. Japan has revised the law to ensure job security for employees up to the a

31、ge of 65 and curbed the decline in labor market participation and unemployment of people over the age of 60. Key data: Japan and IndiaJapanIndia CRI demographics rank6579 Life expectancy (years)83.768.3 Global AgeWatch Index ranking871 Age dependency ratio0.640.52 Health expenditure per capita (curr

32、ent US$) in 20143,70375 Unemployment, total (% of total labour force)3.1%3.5% Labour force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+) 49%27% The 2017 CRI illustrates the interplay between demographic and other economic forces. Japan and India are at different stages in the demograp

33、hic transition and face different resulting opportunities and challenges. For India to take advantage of its burgeoning working-age population, far reaching reforms are necessary, including further investment to improve education, empower women and girls and encourage female participation in the lab

34、or market. Japan, on the other hand, might seek to diversify its labor market by increasing labor force participation among older citizens and overall labor productivity, along with immigration measures to expand its labor pool in order to lessen the burden of its ageing population. Adapting to demo

35、graphic change 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 2017 Change Readiness Index 19 CRI insight 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (

36、“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 2017 Change Readiness Index 20 11 2015 OECD DAC (http:/www.oecd.org/dac/stats/beyond-oda.htm). 12 WORLD BANK International migrant s

37、tock (% of population) (2015). Few topics are as contentious as migration and the policies, opinions and politics it engenders. While many view it as a major factor in the recent elections in the US and France, and the UK Brexit referendum, its causes and consequences are still poorly understood. Th

38、ere were 244 million people living in countries other than their birth county in 2015. Some migrated to seek better economic and life opportunities by crossing borders legally or illegally, while others simply sought safety for themselves and their families from conflicts in their home countries. Th

39、ese factors have raised migration to a major driver of change on a global scale, both in the receiving and sending country. Today, for example, remittances from workers domiciled overseas are double official development aid.11 The CRI provides insights on both the causes and consequences of migratio

40、n. Source: 2017 Change Readiness Index, KPMG International. Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Lithuania Netherlands PolandPortugal Romania Slovakia Spain Sweden UK 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.55.510.515.520.5 CRI Internation

41、al migrant share % of population Figure 1: Migration and CRI Income inequality and conflict are drivers of global migration Key takeaways Economic migration to countries with high CRI scores (a pull factor) is high. The top 20 countries in the CRI all have higher than average levels of inward migrat

42、ion. High-income is no guarantee of readiness to meet the challenges presented by global migration. In the case of refugees, where conflict and fragile states are push factors, geography plays a large role. Recipient countries, like Jordan and Lebanon, are close neighbors to crisis countries and are

43、 not well-equipped to address the strain of a large influx of refugees. Economic migration and the CRI Income per capita is a strong predictor of level of migration as high-income countries attract economic migrants and have been generally more willing to accept them. Examples of EU countries with l

44、arge foreign-born populations and relatively high incomes include the UK (13.2 percent of its population), France (12.1 percent) and Germany (14.8percent).12 A significant share of these migrants, however, are workers who move within the EU under its mobility rules, allowing these countries to benef

45、it from both larger markets and a larger pool of workers. Countries with high scores in the CRI, like Austria, Sweden and Germany (see Figure 1), have the capacity to host and incorporate significant migrant populations. Through the provision of safety nets, education and economic opportunity, these

46、 economies can incorporate migrants productively into their economies, providing a net gain to society. But not all high-income countries are equally well placed. Others, like Spain and Greece, have large 2017 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no clie

47、nt services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 2017 Change Readiness Index 21 migrant populations (similar in size to the UK and the Netherlands), yet based on their lower ranking in the CRI, appear less able to absorb them and proactive

48、ly manage the structural changes. Interestingly, a group of other countries, including parts of the former Soviet bloc, have both low inward migration and low CRI, evidencing a potential source of future growth if they build the economic and social base to attract workers to productively grow their

49、economies. Refugees and flight to safety Syria fell to the penultimate position in the 2017 CRI, reflecting the civil strife and ongoing conflict besetting that country. A symptom of this decline has been a sharp rise in emigration, which increased five-fold from 2010 to 2015 and is likely even higher now.13 The spillover effects of this movement of people is highly regional as geography, culture, language and mobility places many refugees in nearby countries. To date, the largest concentrations are in Turkey (ranked 62 in