1、New retail reinvigorates Chinas imports New technologies, new models, and new channels Consumer industry consists of four sectors: Automotive; Consumer Products; Retail, Wholesale, and Distribution; and Transportation, Hospitality, and Services. The Deloitte Consumer practice delivers integrated ser

2、vices to clients and assists them to win the fast-changing market environment. 1 Chinas digital-driven new retail leads the global consumer market|2 Wealth accumulation, scientific and technological progress, and regional economic development spur market expansion and reform|6 High-quality, healthy,

3、 diverse the new era of import consumption|8 Digitization reshapes consumption patterns|9 Consumer demand still has growth potential|11 Conclusion|13 Contents New technologies, new models, and new channels 2 Chinas digital-driven new retail leads the global consumer market C HINA HAS DEVELOPED rapid

4、ly over recent years, becoming the worlds second-largest economy and largest online retail market. With the deepening of market reform and economic expansion, Chinas consumer market will embrace international producers with renewed openness and dynamism. Stimulated by strong consumer demand, oversea

5、s brands will enter a new era of opportunity. Chinas influence continues to rise in the global consumer market After decades of rapid development, Chinas economy is entering its “new normal.” The eco- nomic growth model is changing, with consumption replacing investment as the core driver of growth.

6、 In the first half of 2018, the contribution of final consumption expenditure (FCE) to gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 78.5 percent. This figure has continued to rise since 2014, with the role of consumption in driving growth becoming increasingly prominent each year. The economic contri

7、bution and growth rates of Chinas FCE exceed the consumer goods markets in the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan. Between 2013 and 2016, the average annual con- tribution of Chinas FCE to global consumption growth was 23.4 percent, higher than that of the United States (23 percent), Eurozone (7

8、.9 percent), and Japan (2.1 percent) (figure 1). Over the same period, Chinas annual FCE growth rate of 7.5 percent was also higher than FCE growth in the United States (2.2 percent), Eurozone (1 percent), and Japan (0.6 percent). This shows Chinas out- standing contribution to global consumption. G

9、iven sustained economic growth, its influence will con- tinue to expand. Increasingly diversified sources of consumer goods imports to China With improved spending power and sustained progress in opening-up, China has been steadily increasing its proportion of imported consumer goods in the global c

10、onsumer goods import market, and its influence on this market has grown corre- spondingly (figure 2). According to data from the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), Chinas consumer goods imports accounted for about 2 percent of the global total in 2006. By 2016, the proportion reached 4.4 percen

11、t, and the absolute New retail reinvigorates Chinas imports 2 3 FIGURE 1 Chinas consumption growth leads the world Average annual growth rate for FCE (20132016) Average contribution of FCE to global consumption growth (20132016) 7.5% 23.4% Japan China United States Eurozone 23.0% 7.9% 2.2% 1.0% 2.1%

12、 0.6% Source: CCTV Business Channel, Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | 12% FIGURE 2 The proportion of Chinas imports of consumer goods in the global total continues to rise Chinas consumer goods imports Global consumer goods imports Chinas proportion of global consumer goods imports (right axis

13、) Source: World Integrated Trade Solution, Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US$ billionPercent New technologies, new models, and new channels 3 4 value of Chinas consumer goods imports in

14、 USD had reached 2.7 times that in 2006. From 2006 to 2016, the sources of Chinas con- sumer goods imports changed significantly. Changes in the proportions of major trading partners and the diversification of trading relationships reflect this. In 2006, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and the United S

15、tates were the top four sources of Chinas consumer goods; but by 2016, the ranking had changed to the United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, with the shares of these major trading partners changing considerably. In the meantime, in 2006, countries other than Chinas top 10 trading partners a

16、ccounted for only 24 percent of consumer goods imports, but by 2016, the percentage had risen to 36 percent, reflecting the trend of diversi- fying trading relationships. A growing number of countries are participating in consumer goods trade with China (figure 3). In a more open market and friendli

17、er policy environ- ment, more countries and regions will have access to the Chinese market and become important con- tributors to Chinas consumer goods import market. FIGURE 3 A growing number of countries are participating in consumer goods trade with China Note: Percentages may not total 100 perce

18、nt due to rounding. Source: World Integrated Trade Solution, Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | United States Germany Japan Republic of Korea United Kingdom Italy France Other Asia Australia Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Russian Federation Hong Kong, China Other countries 13% 12% 12% 7% 4% 4% 4%

19、3% 3% 3% 36% 19% 15% 8% 8% 8% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 24% 20062016 New retail reinvigorates Chinas imports 4 5 Chinas new retail drives the global retail transformation In terms of total market size, the total value of retail sales of consumer goods in China reached RMB36.6 trillion in 2017 (US$5.43 trillion

20、 based on an exchange rate of RMB6.75 per USD), a year-on-year increase of 10.2 percent. In terms of digitization, Chinas online sales were 18.7 times the international average, with mobile payment penetration 3.8 times the global average and mobile internet use outpacing the rest of the world 1.5-f

21、old. In such a large, highly digitized market driven by leading participants, Chinas retail landscape has entered a new phase of reform focused on con- sumer demand and driven by digitization. Overall efficiency is improving through omni-channel inte- gration and supply chain optimization. As reform

22、 and innovation deepen, new models, applications, and products are continually being used in China, a trend with far-reaching significance for develop- ment and innovation in global retail. New technologies, new models, and new channels 5 6 Wealth accumulation, scientific and technological progress,

23、 and regional economic development spur market expansion and reform The accumulation of wealth is driving consumption upgrades Sustained economic development has expanded Chinas mid- to high-income population and the accumulation of wealth, making the middle class the main driver of the Chinese cons

24、umer market. Wealth accumulation over the past decade has brought about substantial changes in consumption patterns: The proportion of daily necessities has fallen and the variety of consumer spending is ex- panding in lockstep with income. At the same time, consumers are now satisfied not just by q

25、uantity, but have also diversified their demands for quality, high-end, healthy, and experiential products and services, driving the upgrade of consumption in the Chinese market. Innovation and technology are reshaping the entire retail value chain The innovation and popularization of retail technol

26、ogy based on a series of underlying tech- nologies, including cloud computing, the Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence (AI), are driving the entire retail ecosystem to become more digitized, intelligent, and efficient. This gives retail market participants the opportunity to co

27、nnect and interact seamlessly with consumers across multiple channels. It is also enabling market participants to optimize and integrate their supply chains with real-time, multidimensional data, improving their operational efficiency and customer service and making them more competitive in the proc

28、ess of reshaping the value chain. Regional development is the new engine of Chinas economic growth In 2017, to deepen its opening-up and connec- tion with the global economy, China proposed the “GuangdongHong KongMacao Bay Area,” or “Greater Bay Area” (GBA), development strategy (figure 4). This enc

29、ompasses 11 cities: Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhaoqing, Foshan, Zhongshan, and Ji- angmen. The GBA, which spans “one country, two systems, and three customs zones,” has become the latest member of the worlds “bay area economies,” joining the Tokyo, New York, a

30、nd San Francisco bay areas. The GBA is a national-level strategy for China to integrate regional resources and expand its opening-up. It will bring numerous opportunities to enhance economic development and consumer market growth: New retail reinvigorates Chinas imports 6 7 Closer regional synergy a

31、nd resource integra- tion will promote industrial upgrading, leading regional development into a new, “three wheeldriven” model that relies on research and innovation, high-end manufacturing, and modern service industries, as well as promoting regional economic development to release consumption pot

32、ential. The pooling and circulation of talent due to regional collaboration will increase the mid-to high-income population, which will then become the new driver of consumption growth, especially of high-end products and services. Improved infrastructure will create a connected population in a regi

33、on where no city will be more than an hours travel from another. Connections between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong and Macao will make consumer and commodity flows more convenient, bringing new develop- ment opportunities for overseas brands. Opening-up provides strong support to the import mar

34、ket China has cut import tariffs on a variety of consumer goods on five occasions from 2015 to September 2018. Measures in July 2018 covered 1,449 items and cut their average tax rate from 15.7 percent to 6.9 percent, representing an average tax cut of more than 50 percent. In November 2018, the gov

35、ernment introduced further tariff reduc- tions on certain commodities, as well as measures to streamline customs clearance. Free-trade zones are also a key component of opening-up. China has established 11 free-trade zonesShanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, Hen

36、an, Liaoning, and Shaanxieach of which plays a pivotal role in promoting trade in goods and imports. FIGURE 4 The GuangdongHong KongMacao Bay Area (GBA) is the newest member of the world bay area economies Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | 12% 1. GuangzhouShenzhenHong Kong high-speed ra

37、il It takes only 48 minutes to travel from Guangzhou to Hong Kong. Sixteen mainland urban high-speed rail stations connect directly to Hong Kong West Kowloon Railway Station. For example, the travel time from Beijing to Shenzhen is nine hours. Offi cially launched in September 2018. 2. Hong KongZhuh

38、aiMacao Bridge It takes 30 minutes to travel from Hong Kong to Zhuhai. Joint trial operation in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao began in September 2018. 3. ShenzhenZhongshan Bridge-Tunnel It takes 30 minutes to travel from Shenzhen to Zhongshan. Promotes coordinated development by linking the west b

39、ank of the Pearl River and the GuangdongHong KongMacao Bay Area. Scheduled to launch in 2025. 4. Pearl River Delta Intercity Railways Fifteen intercity railways will form a railway network, including three circle routes and eight north-south routes. Every major urban center in the area will be withi

40、n one hours travel by rail. Scheduled to launch in 2020. 1 2 3 4 New technologies, new models, and new channels 7 8 High-quality, healthy, diversethe new era of import consumption Quality has become the main factor in Chinese consumers import purchases As consumers have accumulated wealth and become

41、 conscious of quality, their attention to and purchases of high-quality goods have grown rapidly. High-quality imported food, cosmetics, mother/baby products, and health care products have become popular in recent years. According to the Statistical Analysis Report on the Supply and Demand of Major

42、Consumer Goods issued by the Ministry of Commerce earlier this year, quality has become a key consideration in consumers pur- chases of imported products. More than 70 percent of consumers attach importance to the quality of cosmetics; 74 percent seek quality in imported sports products such as outd

43、oor and fitness equip- ment; and 70.2 percent value quality in household goods. This attention to and pursuit of quality will benefit the long-term development of the best foreign brands in China. Chinese consumers renewed appetite for healthy products From imported fresh fruits and vegetables to ad

44、ditive-free juices, increased health awareness has changed Chinese consumers purchasing habits and preferences. In 2017, Chinese imports of plant products including fresh fruit and vegetables, tea, and coffee reached US$15.7 billion, up 11.72 percent from the previous year. In addition to healthy fo

45、ods, the Ministry of Commerce report indicates that Chinese consumers would also welcome a greater variety of available sports shoes, casual clothes, outdoor and fitness equipment, and other sports and fitness-related products over the next six months. Rising demand for imported health care prod- uc

46、ts is another reflection of the ongoing “health kick” among Chinese consumers. Based on data from the Ministry of Commerce, health care products, which already take up a large proportion of traditional imports, remain one of the categories in which con- sumers hope to see more imports. All of these

47、indicators show Chinas “health kick” has changed not only peoples lifestyles, but also their purchasing preferences. Chinese consumers prefer a diverse array of commodities On one hand, consumers from the burgeoning middle-class are increasingly demanding more so- phisticated, diversified products s

48、uch as imported exotic foods, skincare and color cosmetics for dif- ferent purposes, and health care products with specific functions. On the other hand, the emerging main consumers of imported goods, i.e., the gen- erations born since the 1990s, are more willing to try out new imports and “internet

49、 meme” products. They have promoted the growth of a wide range of imports aimed at meeting segmented, diversi- fied demand, including new beauty products, new fashion brands, and popular online food retail. New retail reinvigorates Chinas imports 9 A MID UNPRECEDED DIGITIZATION, “real life” has become almost indistinguishable from “digital life” as a result of consumers dependence on thei