1、U n i t e d n at i o n s C o n f e r e n C e o n t r a d e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t UNCTADUNITED NATIONS UNCTAD B2C E-COMMERCE INDEX 2018 FOCUS ON AFRICA UNCTAD Technical Notes on ICT for DevelopmentN12 1 UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2018 Focus on Africa Improved coverage in 2018 edition The 2018

2、UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, which measures an economys preparedness to support online shopping, has expanded its coverage to include 151 economies, up seven from the 2017 edition. The index consists of four indicators that are highly related to online shopping and for which there is wide country co

3、verage (box 1).1 The extent to which people shop online in a country is highly correlated with the value of the index, with an adjusted R squared value of 0.8 (Figure 1). Box 1. UNCTAD B2C E-commerce index methodology The index is calculated as the average of four indicators (i.e., each indicator ca

4、rries the same weight) using data for 2017 or the latest available. Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population ages 15+) (Source: World Bank) Individuals using the Internet (% of population) (Source: International Telecommunication Union, IT

5、U) Postal Reliability Index (Source: Universal Postal Union, UPU) Secure Internet servers (per 1 million people) (Source: Netcraft) Account ownership data are sourced from the World Bank Findex survey, which is carried out every three years, with latest survey in 2017. Therefore, 2016 data have been

6、 estimated based on the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2014-17. In cases where there was no survey in 2014 but there was one in 2011 and 2017, intervening years are estimated based on the 2011-17 CAGR. Older data were used as a basis for the estimates when only surveys conducted prior to

7、 2014 or 2011 were available. Secure Internet servers per 1 million people is normalized with this formula: Log (secure server penetration)-Log (maximum value) / Log (maximum value) / Log (minimum value) *100. As noted there was a significant rise in secure servers for some countries in 2017 and rev

8、isions in earlier years. UPU postal reliability data is available for 2015-17. If there are no data for a country in 2017, then the previous years data are used. At the time of this report, 2017 Internet use data from the ITU were available for less than half of the countries in the index. In some c

9、ases, surveys have been used to update the data. If no survey was available, then 2016 data is used. Country ranks for 2016 are shown as in the previous version of the index. However, given revisions to the data, the increase in score is based on the revised value for 2016. Source: UNCTAD. 1 For mor

10、e information on the methodology see: UNCTAD. 2017. “UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2017.” UNCTAD Technical Notes on ICT for Development, No. 9. 2 The release of new account ownership data from the World Banks 2017 Global Findex survey2 has increased the number of countries included and allows for an e

11、stimation of account data for the intervening years since the last survey in 2014. Furthermore, the 2017 FINDEX survey includes for the first time data on the proportion of the age 15+ population which has used the Internet to buy something online. This allows the index to be tested for robustness u

12、sing a harmonized data set of online shoppers. There were significant revisions to data on the availability of secure servers. According to Netcraft, the company that carries out the survey, there was a sharp rise for some countries due to drives from browser vendors for increased security and the a

13、vailability of free, easy-to-use certificates. Postal reliability scores fluctuated significantly in 2017 as postal operators adjusted to growing parcel volumes from increased online shopping. Figure 1. Relationship between UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index values and online shopping Source: UNCTAD. 2 htt

14、ps:/globalfindex.worldbank.org. R = 0.803 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 020406080100 Shopped Online (% 15+), 2017 UNCTAD B2C E-commerce index 2018 3 The Netherlands ascends to the top of the index Eight of the top ten countries on the index are in Europe (Table 1). Index values are extremely close, w

15、ith a range of just four points between first and tenth rank. For the first time, the Netherlands is the highest ranked country in the index, up three positions from the last year. It replaced Luxembourg, which dropped out of the top ten as a result of a sharp drop in its postal reliability score. T

16、he Netherlands has high values for most indicators (Box 1), particularly secure servers where it is top ranked among all countries included in the index. Secure servers is used as a proxy for e-commerce shops, and the Netherlands had over 40000 pure play online retailers in 2016, the highest figure

17、in the European Union (Figure 2, left).3 The country has the second highest proportion of online shoppers in the world (76% of the population aged 15 and older). Singapore and Switzerland are in second and third place. Singapore has surged 16 positions from the last edition, with increased values ac

18、ross all indicators. It now ranks among the top countries in accounts, secure server penetration and postal reliability. E-commerce giant Alibaba is an investor in Singapore Post, which in fiscal year 2018 reported that over half its revenue was e-commerce related (Figure 2, right).4 Internet use is

19、, however, below average and the countrys level of online shopping is lower than what it should be given its high index rank. This may partly reflect the fact that the main reason Internet users do not shop online in Singapore is they prefer to shop in person, a factor not measured in the index.5 Sw

20、itzerland rates favorably on all indicators and according to its national postal operator: “Switzerland has all the ingredients it needs to be one of the best e-commerce markets in the world.”6 The Confederation had the second highest average online spend among European countries in 2016 (Figure 3,

21、left). The United Kingdom has climbed to fourth position. Along with the Netherlands and Switzerland, the United Kingdom has all of its index indicator values at 90 or above. Such a conducive environment for online shopping is reflected in the country having the largest B2C revenues in Europe and th

22、e worlds highest proportion of B2C revenues to GDP (Figure 3, right). Norway and Sweden, 5th and 8th respectively, are among four Nordic nations included in the top ten. They have among the worlds highest values for all of the indicators except secure server penetration. High levels of Internet acce

23、ss, payment methods and reliable postal delivery are driving online shopping to among the highest levels in the world (3rd and 6th world ranking in the proportion of population that has bought something online). Iceland, ranked 6th, has near ubiquitous Internet access with 98% of the population onli

24、ne, the highest in the world along with Bahrain and Norway. Its score is brought down by a relatively low level of postal reliability, possibly a reflection of challenging terrain and 3 See “Annual detailed enterprise statistics for trade (NACE Rev. 2 G)” on the Eurostat database at: https:/ec.europ

25、a.eu/eurostat/data/database 4 Singapore Post. 2018. Annual Report 2017/18. 5 Infocomm Media Development Authority. 2018. Annual Survey on Infocomm Usage in Households and by Individuals for 2017. https:/www.imda.gov.sg/industry-development/facts-and-figures/infocomm-usage- households-and-individuals

26、 6 Asendia. “The secrets of e-commerce success in Switzerland.” https:/www.asendia.co.uk/application/files/2215/0600/5325/Asendia_secrets_of_ecommerce_success_in_s witzerland_whitepaper.pdf 4 weather conditions in the nation. One alternative is drone delivery which has been launched by Icelands bigg

27、est B2C e-commerce company.7 Figure 2. Top ten countries by pureplay web shops per 1 million people, European Union and Singapore Post E-commerce related revenue, FY 2018 Note: Pureplay web shops are equivalent to ISIC 4.0 4791 Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet. Singapore e-commerce

28、related revenue relates to cross-border deliveries under its postal segment, warehousing and last-mile delivery under its logistics segment and front-end related revenue under its eCommerce segment. Source: Eurostat and Singapore Post. Figure 3. Annual online spend, Europe, 2016 and B2C e-commerce r

29、evenue as a % of GDP, Top 5 countries, 2016 Source: Asendia (left chart) and United Kingdom Office of National Statistics, China Bureau of Statistics, Malaysia Department of Statistics, Central Bank of Ireland, Electronic Transactions Development Agency of Thailand and World Bank (for exchange rates

30、 and GDP). 7 Greg Nichols. 2018. “Icelands answer to Amazon adds drone routes to urban deliveries.” ZDNet, 7 August. - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Top ten countries in EU by pureplay web shops per 1 million people, 2016 Pureplay shops (000s)Per 1 million people Non-E- commerce re

31、lated revenue 45% E- Commerce related revenue 55% E-commerce related revenue, Singapore Post, FY2018 $2741 $2377 $1812 $1799 $1699 $1338 United Kingdom Switzerland Germany Italy Spain France Annual online spend (US$), Europe, 2016 7.3% 6.9% 6.4% 5.0% 4.9% United Kingdom ChinaMalaysiaIrelandThailand

32、Top 5 countries, B2C sales (% of GDP), 2016 5 Ireland is ranked 7th, advancing 12 positions due to notable increases in secure servers and postal reliability. It is judged by UPU to have the second highest postal reliability in the world. Like Singapore, Internet use is relatively low compared to th

33、e other top ranked countries and growth has been sluggish, dropping one percentage point in 2017. New Zealand ranks 9th (the other high-income Pacific nation, Australia, ranks 11th), with high levels of accounts and postal reliability where it ranks 7th in the world. New Zealand Post offers several

34、relevant services to support e-commerce, such as a national Parcel Collection and Drop Off network with over 240 handy locations where buyers can pick up packages; eShip for printing shipping labels; and Pick Pack Ship for sellers wanting to outsource fulfillment, featuring warehousing, packing and

35、shipping.8 Denmark completes the top ten. Its score is lowered mainly by a relatively low score on UPUs postal reliability index. On the other hand, Denmark has a high level of secure Internet server density and the highest proportion of online shoppers in the world, two percentage points higher tha

36、n in the Netherlands. Table 1. Top 10 economies in the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index 2018 2018 Rank Economy Share of individuals using the Internet (2017 or latest) Share of individuals with an account (15+, 2017 or latest) Secure Internet servers (normalized) (2017) UPU postal reliability score (2017

37、 or latest) Index value (2017 data) Index value change (2016-17 data) 2017 Index rank 1 Netherlands 95 100 100 90 96.1 -0.1 4 2 Singapore 84 98 98 100 95.2 1.8 18 3 Switzerland 94 98 94 94 95.0 -0.8 2 4 United Kingdom 95 96 90 96 94.4 0.6 6 5 Norway 98 100 87 90 93.5 -0.5 3 6 Iceland 98 99 98 78 93.

38、5 0.3 11 7 Ireland 81 95 95 100 92.8 1.5 19 8 Sweden 96 100 86 89 92.8 0.0 7 9 New Zealand 88 99 87 96 92.6 0.5 10 10 Denmark 97 100 96 74 91.8 -1.6 13 Box 2. Mapping the index to reality: the Dutch experience In an ideal world, more relevant indicators would be used for the construction of a B2C e-

39、commerce index. This could include the penetration of online shops, an indicator reflecting ease of receiving parcel deliveries and a quantitative measure of why people do not shop online. However, this would vastly reduce the number of countries included in the index. The four indicators included i

40、n the UNCTAD index have a high correlation to online shopping. It is useful to map actual developments in the B2C e-commerce ecosystem that reflect the index 8 New Zealand Post. 2018. The Full Download: 2018 New Zealand eCommerce Review. https:/www.nzpost.co.nz/sites/default/files/uploads/shared/the

41、-full-download-2018-nz-ecommerce- report.pdf?utm_source=sfmc started operations in 2018 (no financial figures available). Alibaba announces intention to invest in 2017 and buys stake in local e-commerce company in 2018 for $ 1 billion. 32 Islamic Republic of Iran $ 100 million foreign investment by

42、IIIC in leading e-commerce company Digikala33 29 “Alibaba Increases Stake in E-Commerce Platform Lazada.” Press Release, 28 June 2017. Platform-Lazada 30 Amazon. 2018. Form 10-K 2017. http:/services.corporate- 31 Samantha Ho. 2018. “Alibabas investment in Malaysia is US$100m and counting.” The Edge

43、Financial Daily, 19 June. 32 Sinan Tavsan. 2018. “Alibaba and eBay try their luck in Turkeys e-commerce market.” Nikkei Asian Review, 17 July. commerce-market 33 Esfandyar Batmanghelidj. 2018. “Irans E-Commerce and App Store Giants Continue March to Unicorn Valuations.” Bourse & Bazaar, 22 January.

44、commerce-giant-reportedly-crosses-500-million-milestone-valuation Internet use Up 6 p.p. Online shoppers Up 4 p.p. B2C sales Up 32% 11 Table 3 shows the top ranked economies in each region while Table 4 shows the average values for each region. Table 3. Top 10 developing and transition economies in

45、the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce Index, 2018, by region East, South & Southeast Asia West Asia & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Transition economies Singapore United Arab Emirates Mauritius Chile Belarus Hong Kong (China) Turkey Nigeria Brazil Serbia Korea, Republic of Saud

46、i Arabia South Africa Jamaica Russian Federation Malaysia Islamic Republic of Iran Ghana Trinidad and Tobago Georgia Thailand Bahrain Kenya Costa Rica Macedonia, TFYC Mongolia Lebanon Uganda Colombia Ukraine China Kuwait Botswana Uruguay Kazakhstan Viet Nam Oman Cameroon Venezuela, Bolivarian Republ

47、ic of Moldova India Jordan Namibia Belize Bosnia and Herzegovina Bangladesh Tunisia Gabon Argentina Albania Table 4. Regional values for the UNCTAD B2C E-commerce index, 2018 Share of individuals using the Internet (2017 or latest) Share of individuals with an account (15+, 2017 or latest) Secure In

48、ternet servers (normalized) (2017) UPU postal reliability score (2017 or latest) Index value (2017 data) Africa 26 40 29 24 30 East, South & Southeast Asia 48 62 57 62 57 Latin America & the Caribbean 54 53 54 24 46 Western Asia 71 58 51 42 57 Transition economies 65 59 65 71 65 Developed 84 93 88 81 86 World 54 60 56 49 55 Figure 6 illustrates the minimum and maximum indicator values for the 2018 index. Postal reliability continues to be the indicator with the most fluctuation. Countries making notable gains include Paraguay for Internet usage (based on national surveys rather than esti