1、 / + + 1 2017 2020 1-2 2017 6520163986.5% 12048 2020 1170160 2020-2022EPS0.670.700.71 PE8.53x8.09x8.08x 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 20,264 20,280 20,133 24,930 28,037 (+/-)% 5.10% 0.08% -0.72% 23.83% 12.46% 819 1,602 2,177 2,296 2,300 (+/-)% 74.47% 95.63% 35.90% 5.43% 0.17% 0.25 0.49 0.67 0.70 0.7

2、1 25.86 14.19 8.53 8.09 8.08 1.74 1.55 1.09 0.94 0.83 (%) 6.73% 10.95% 12.72% 11.64% 10.30% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 3,258 3,258 3,258 3,258 3,258 2020/6/17 6 6.80 5.70 12 5.538.50 18,570 3,258 A 3,258 B/H 0/0 12 -30% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 2019/62019/92019/122020/3 % 1M 3M 12M -3% -8% -28

3、% -6% -17% -38% 002010 20200501 002010.SZ 20200429 002010.SZ 20191029 002010 20190903 S0550515110002 (021)20363212 S0550119100015 (021)20361258 0 0 002010 2020-06-20 2 / 32 1.“” . 4 1.1.“” . 4 1.2. . 5 1.3. 6 1.3.1. . 6 1.3.2. 8 2. 10 2.1. . 10 2.2.“” . 13 2.3. 17 2.3.1. 19 2.3.2. . 21 3.2020 . 23 4

4、. 25 5.&. 27 5.1. . 27 5.2. . 29 1 . 4 2 . 4 32019 . 5 4 . 6 52019 . 6 6 . 7 7% . 7 8 . 8 9 . 9 10. 9 11 . 9 12. 10 13 .11 14. 12 15 . 12 16. 13 3 / 32 172017 . 14 182019. 15 192019 . 15 202019 . 15 21 . 16 22. 16 23 . 16 24. 17 25 . 19 26 . 19 27 . 20 28. 20 29 . 20 30. 21 31. 21 32 . 22 33 . 22 34

5、. 22 35. 22 36/ . 22 37 . 23 38 . 24 39% . 24 40. 24 41 . 25 42. 26 43“” . 26 44. 27 1 . 4 2 . 8 3 . 8 4 . 13 5 . 17 62019. 17 7 . 18 8 . 18 92019 . 23 10. 27 11. 28 4 / 32 1. 1.1. +1986 1997 19985000 19992004 2015200 452016 + 1 2 1 5 / 32 O2O O2O 2017 + 32019 1.2. 65% 20042015 61.84% 64.91% 6 / 32

6、4 1.3. 2019 68%32% 52019 1.3.1. DTY90 3000 106DTY DTY 40%30% 7 / 32 50% 50% 6 7% 12016 2017 2017 1 8 / 32 2 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 11723.98 13033.98 15256.19 18485.77 24457.00 5766.55 5746.32 6541.12 2619.56 4832.97 5614.41 2236.31 4123.30 4810.68 4768.12 5270.66 3 2015A 2016H1 96.50 50.17 9.

7、40 6.30 7.20 5.10 8 1.3.2. 2017 2017 2018 201624.49 50% 9 / 32 9 10 20171.89% 2018 201946.55% 5.820.38%2.42%2019 2.06% 11 10 / 32 2. 2.1. 12 11 / 32 13 4%-5%6% 2019 2015 12 / 32 14 20182030.8 1776.7 91.5% ( ) 12 2019776 11 15 13 / 32 / 2018 / 16 2.2. O2O 4 1997 1998 3PL 2000 2003 2005 2009 2010 14 /

8、 32 2011 2013 O2O 2014 68 2015 + 2017 2000 2009 2013O2O2014 +2015 O2O O2O 2017 2017 172017 15 / 32 87%28% 28%71% 182019 192019 202019 16 / 32 21 22 23 217 20184820184 17 / 32 5 8 10 24 2.3. 4+11+n41111n 2019 52 62019 9 9 5 9 18 / 32 4 7 6 3 500 25% 300-500 50% 150 25% 7 500 25% 300-500 50% 150-300 2

9、5% 8 2017 2009 730 47.37 2011 500 35.6 2015 700 12.99 20169 500260 1.8 20185 520131 / 3 19 / 32 25 2.3.1. 20072009520 730 6 26 2013 22320% 95% 2018 17.5 14871 2000 50.09 20 / 32 27 28 29 2014-2018 2016 201752018APP 30 2019 3 21 / 32 30 2.3.2. 5002602016 928 31 2016 2016369 20182287249%-17

10、47 22 / 32 32 33 34 35 2017 2616000 2016-2018 91%92%97%2018314 201779.51% 36/ 23 / 32 3. 2020 20176-8 1170 20195265 2017 65201639 13 52 160 36-8 37 92019 9 9 5 9 4 7 6 3 2020 2020 24 / 32 38 & 2016201977.42% 86.5% 2019 120482016-2019 2.623.01 39% 40 2019H11870 107.15% 28% 25 / 32 41 4. 2017 2019 3 2

11、019 3.3813.80% 26 / 32 42 43 27 / 32 5. & 5.1. 538 2 59%41% 10 500000 750 300000 450 100000 150 8 456 3% 44 28 / 32 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.4 0.7 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.3 0.6 0.75 0.85 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 60 90 120 150 154.5 159.1 163.9 168.8 3

12、0 60 90 120 123.6 127.3 131.1 135.1 20 40 60 80 82.4 84.9 87.4 90.0 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90 160 220 270 278.1 286.4 295.0 303.9 70 140 200 220 226.6 233.4 240.4 247.6 40 100 140 160 164.8 169.7 174.8 180.1 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 70 140 200 230 236.9 244.0 251.3 258.9 50 100 140 180 185.4 191.0 196.7 202.6 3

13、0 70 120 150 154.5 159.1 163.9 168.8 / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 80 150 210 250 257.5 265.2 273.2 281.4 60 130 180 200 206.0 212.2 218.5 225.1 40 90 130 160 164.8 169.7 174.8 180.1 2020E-2022E 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 81.81 192.8 202.64 202.8 201.33 249.30 280.37 % 53.20% 135.67% 5.10% 0.08% -

14、0.72% 23.82% 12.46% 35.3 139.2 139.93 136.43 134.39 179.01 207.98 % 189.11% 294.33% 0.52% -2.50% -1.49% 33.20% 16.18% 24.49 116.29 92.79 68.09 69.11 93.30 107.30 % 784.12% 374.85% -20.21% -26.62% 1.50% 35.00% 15.00% 6.5 10.13 33.29 53.86 48.47 65.44 77.32 % 39.48% 55.85% 228.63% 61.79% -10.00% 35.00

15、% 18.16% 3.04 7.2 7.84 8.03 8.99 11.24 13.01 % 8.19% 136.84% 8.89% 2.42% 12.00% 25.00% 15.72% 0.27 0.56 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.08 3.57 4.58 5.89 6.07 7.28 8.60 % 28.29% 28.60% 3.00% 20.00% 18.16% 1.19 2.01 1.16 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 29 / 32 39.75 53.61 62.71 64.99 66.94 70.29 72.40 % -1.90% 34.87% 16.97% 3.64%

16、 3.00% 5.00% 3.00% 5.2. 30 / 32 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3,276 3,875 5,188 5,968 1,638 2,245 2,367 2,371 0 0 0 0 291 80 80 80 1,254 2,055 2,043 2,579 404 -765 -765 -765 1,464 1,776 1,989 2,346 -132 -100 -120 -150 4,533 4,794 5,590 6,192 410 414 414 414 10,527 12,500 14,810 17,

17、086 -201 -221 -249 -280 -668 -820 -216 -753 728 715 715 715 -327 -990 -517 -7 1,713 2,843 3,972 5,102 1,415 -158 993 909 2,057 2,097 2,137 2,177 -2,374 1,171 733 284 358 358 358 358 -587 -414 -414 -414 19,957 21,144 22,343 23,543 -1,852 834 150 355 30,484 33,643 37,153 40,629 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640

18、 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,478 1,805 2,081 2,394 801 823 1,008 1,137 0.49 0.67 0.70 0.71 268 268 268 268 4.49 5.25 6.05 6.85 7,551 8,156 8,990 9,785 0.43 -0.05 0.30 0.28 1,485 1,485 1,485 1,485 5,059 5,059 5,059 5,059 0.1% -0.7% 23.8% 12.5% 6,544 6,544 6,544 6,544 95.6% 35.9% 5.4% 0.2% 14,095 14,701

19、 15,534 16,329 14,627 17,114 19,719 22,328 13.7% 12.4% 13.4% 13.2% 1,762 1,829 1,900 1,971 7.9% 10.8% 9.2% 8.2% 30,484 33,643 37,153 40,629 22.20 25.96 24.08 25.02 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 30.54 36.75 33.64 35.20 20,280 20,133 24,930 28,037 17,499 17,635 21,583 24,334 46.2% 43.7% 41.8% 40.2% 127 111

20、137 161 1.39 1.53 1.65 1.75 -49 -80 -80 -80 1.12 1.23 1.34 1.41 828 846 997 1,037 866 860 997 1,037 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% 369 389 385 375 4.3% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 132 100 120 150 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 194 221 249 280 2,040 1,816 2,441 2,956 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -42 990 517 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1,998 2,806 2,958 2,963 35