1、Flights return to pre-pandemic levels as travel continues to resume World number of flights, 7 day moving average50k80k110k140k170k200k230kJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecThe new Chief Economist at the BoE predicts that inflation couldrise “close to or even slightly above 5 per cent” in early 20

2、22.Although earlier this week markets were strongly pricing in a ratehike as soon as next month, this has been slightly temperedfollowing an announcement by Silvana Tenreyo, a BoE interestrate-setter, that she believes more time is needed before action istaken. Nevertheless, markets are currently pr

3、icing a reversal ofthe emergency 0.1% rate cut, back to a 0.25% base rate withinthe next 6 months and a November rate rise is not yet off thetable.MACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHNEED TO KNO

4、WLOOKING AHEADContact: Victoria Ormond, CFAHead of Capital Markets ResearchV+44 20 7861 5009Source: Flight24, Knight FrankSources: Bank of England, Financial Times, OECD, ONS, Trading Economics, Knight Frank 5%Forecast inflation rate early 2022$86Brent Crude26 October 20213.1% UK CPISeptember2019 20

5、20 2021UK inflation undershoots expectations. The CPI inflation rate inthe UK nudged downwards to 3.1% in September from a 9 yearhigh of 3.2% the month prior. This softening is partly due to theEat Out to Help Out restaurant scheme in August last year whichtemporarilyelevatedrestaurantinflationinAug

6、ust2021.Nevertheless, energy prices, supply-chain bottlenecks and labourcosts are expected to support a continuation of above targetinflation, potentially into 2023, according to the Bank of England(BoE).Budget and Spending Review On Wednesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce his Budget and Spe

7、nding Review. A number of announcements totalling c.20bn were already anticipated over the weekend. These include: 1.4bn fund to encourage investments into critical industries such as life sciences and automotive; 7bn for transport infrastructure improvements in regional cities; 5.9bn to the NHS; 3b

8、n investment into post-16 education and later life; 800m for museum and galleries and 5bn to fund health research. COP26 World leaders will meet at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, on Sunday 31st October. This will be the first UN Convention on Climate Change to have a

9、dedicated day to focus on cities, regions and the built environment and many will be on the lookout for further green announcements as a result. GDP and Flash PMI Q3 GDP figures will be released for the US, Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Mexico and South Korea this week. These figu

10、res will arrive as the October Composite PMI for Germany remained expansionary, albeit the business activity index declined to a 8-month low of 52. In the UK, the Composite PMI increased to 56.8 in October, significantly beating expectations. Both the UK Service and Manufacturing PMIs were above exp

11、ectations, although Service sector activity outpaced Manufacturing by the largest margin since 2009 due to supply shortages. Index includes commercial passenger flights, cargo flights, charter flights, business jet flights, private flights, gliders, government flights and some military flightsOil pr

12、ices top multi-year highs, while the Baltic Dry rollsback. Brent Crude has increased to the highest rate sinceOctober 2018 at above $86/barrel, while West Texas Intermediatehas seen trading at the highest price per barrel since 2014. Therebound in global economic activity, combined with tighter supp

13、lyis contributing to the rally. Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index, ameasure of what it costs to ship raw materials, has declined byalmost 25% from its 7thOctober peak of 5,650 to 4,257, reflectingeasing of congestion in some ports as well as the potential forlower steel demand from China. However, thi

14、s remains more than200% higher than the start of the year. For now, elevated energyand shipping costs are expected to continue to support abovetarget inflation.Equity regional sectorsPrice return index percentage change since January 2020, US$Equity marketsPrice return index, Jan 2020 = 100, US$Equi

15、ty sectorsPrice return index, Jan 2020 = 100, US$US EuropeEmerging MarketsPercentage change since1 day1 week1 monthJan 2020LastIndexPercentage change since1 day1 week1 monthLastIndexSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondJan 2020Original value an

16、d baseOriginal value and baseMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHGovernment bond yields10 year government bond yields, %Interest rate swaps5 year swap rates, %Yield curvesLatest nominal yield cu

17、rves vs one year ago, % Corporate bond yields10 year corporate benchmark yields, %The corporate benchmark includes A rated bonds denominated in local currencies1 day1 week1 monthJan 201 day1 week1 monthJan 20One year agoUS UK Germany S. KoreaTodayThe yield curve is an indication of the risk free rat

18、e at different maturitiesSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondLastLastUS UK Germany S. KoreaMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADESUMMARYEQUITIESESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHCOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYInflation and monetary policy1 day1 week1

19、 monthJan 20Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondLastMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHCurrenciesSpot pricesApproximate additional return per annum that dollar denomin

20、ated investors may obtain based on five year currency hedge Hedging benefitsHedging benefit p.a. on a 5 year forward Approximate additional return per annum that dollar denominated investors may obtain based on five year currency hedge 1 day1 monthJan 20Last1 weekJunJulAugSep5.42.52.50.60.30.7 0.84.

21、4Precious MetalsGold and Silver spot price, $ per ounceEnergyOil spot prices, $ per barrel 1 day1 week1 monthJan201 day1 week1 monthJan 20Brent crude monitors the level of demand for raw materials and is a measure of economic activity. LastLastSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY &

22、 MOBILITYREITsBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHTRADECOMMODITIESPetroleum industry rig countChange in the total number of rigs over one year ago. Rig count for US and Canada is updated weekly. All other regions are updated monthly.The rig count is

23、 an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers.No data available for Russia.Change Y/Y-10 0 +350Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondLast countChange over one monthChange over one yearNorth America+336Latin AmericaAsia PacificMiddle East -13EuropeAfrica -7+57+23+25Shipping tr

24、afficCargo & tanker traffic in all UK ports, 7 day moving averageTruck toll mileageGerman truck mileage Index, 7 day moving averageBaltic Dry Index is a measure of what it costs to ship raw materials and is a leading indicator of global demand Baltic dry indexBaltic Exchange, Shipping Dry index (BDI

25、), US$Flight numbersWorld number of flights, 7 day moving average1 day1 week1 monthJan 201 day1 week1 monthJan 20Source: Knight Frank, Macrobond, FlightRadar24Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondLastLastBaltic dry indexMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsCOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCI

26、ES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHTRADEIndex includes commercial passenger flights, cargo flights, charter flights, business jet flights, private flights, gliders, government flights and some military flights50k80k110k140k170k200k230kJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec201920202021R

27、EITs by regionEPRA/NAREIT total return index, Jan 2020 = 100, US$Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondUK REITs by sectorUK EPRA gross total return index, Jan 2020 = 100, GBPUS REITs by sectorUS NAREIT gross total return index, Jan 2020 = 100, US$1 day1 week1 monthJan201 day1 week1 monthJan 20LastLastSourc

28、e: Knight Frank, MacrobondPercentage change since1 day1 week1 monthJan 2020LastIndex, total returnPercentage change sinceIndex, gross total returnPercentage change sinceIndex, gross total returnOriginal value and baseOriginal value and baseOriginal value and baseMACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYTRA

29、DECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHREITsThe CBOE VIX (“investor fear gauge”) is an indication of near term S&P 500 stock price volatility based on underlying options Volatility indexNear term stock price volatility indicatorSystemic st

30、ressMeasures FX, money, sovereign and bond yield volatility1 day1 week1 monthJan 201 week1 monthJan20Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondLastLastThe CISS is an indicator of instability across the whole financial system (hence “systemic stress”)MACROCOVID-19TRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURR

31、ENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHVOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsWorkplace mobility Google Workplace Mobility Index change since March 20, %7 day moving average of daily office visitors compared to each countrys baseline (5 week average between Jan 2020 - Feb 2020). Public transport

32、mobility Citymapper Mobility Index change since March 20, %7 day moving average of daily trips planned and taken compared to each citys baseline (4 week average between Jan 2020 - Feb 2020).Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, Macrobond1 week1 monthLastLast000World casesNumber of rec

33、orded COVID-19 casesWorld vaccinationNumber of Covid-19 vaccination dosesPopulation (%)Total casesMillionsNew casesLast day1 month agoPeople vaccinatedNew dosesLast 7days av.Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondSource: Knight Frank, Macrobond1 week agoThousandsCases and vaccinations breakdown by countryTo

34、tal (mn)1 week ago1 month agoPeople vaccinated1 week ago1 month agoTotal casesChange sinceTotal (mn)Share of populationLastMACROTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsHighest RestrictionsNo restrictions

35、0100Source: Knight Frank, MacrobondCovid-19 containment measures breakdown by marketTimeline of Covid-19 containment measures and their stringency by marketChange in severity of containment measures over time, up to the latest data. International travel ValueNo measure0Screening1Quarantine arrivals

36、from high risk regions2Ban on high risk regions3Total border closure4WorkplaceSchoolsValueNo measureNo measure0RecommendedRecommended1Required closure of some sectorsSome level of schooling to close2Required closure for all but essential work All schools ed to close3Internal movements Public eventsP

37、ublic transport ValueNo measureNo MeasureNo measure0RecommendedRecommended Recommended1RestrictionRequiredRequired2Lockdown Index key & ScaleNo Restrictions0-25Recommended Restrictions26-50Enforced Restrictions51-75Highest Restrictions / Ban76-100COVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBON

38、DS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYMACROESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHSource: Knight Frank, MacrobondConfirmed Cases Confirmed DeathsLockdown IndexInternal MovementPublic EventsPublic TransportWorkplaceSchoolsInternational TravelCzech Republic1,729,458 30,615 35 - 1 - 1 1 3France6

39、,949,168 115,111 67 2 2 - 2 1 3Germany4,476,078 95,121 45 - 2 - 2 1 2Greece716,358 15,628 64 1 2 - 1 1 3Italy4,741,185 131,826 67 1 2 - 3 2 3Poland2,972,927 76,447 39 - 1 - 1 1 2Russia8,112,999 226,464 54 2 2 - 1 3 2Spain4,997,732 87,132 41 - 2 - 2 1 2Switzerland862,411 11,182 46 - 2 - 1 1 3UK8,773,

40、674 139,533 41 - 1 1 2 1 3Canada1,706,136 28,801 68 2 2 - 3 3 3US45,444,260 735,941 56 1 2 1 2 2 3Egypt324,619 18,285 44 - 2 - 1 1 1Kenya252,672 5,257 38 - 2 - 2 - 1South Africa2,919,632 88,925 45 - 1 1 1 1 1UAE739,284 2,130 39 - 1 1 1 1 1Australia160,230 1,648 51 2 - 1 - 2 4China Mainland96,797 4,6

41、36 76 2 2 1 3 3 2Hong Kong SAR12,323 213 59 1 1 1 2 1 2India34,189,774 454,712 50 2 2 2 1 2 2Japan1,717,698 18,207 47 1 1 - 1 1 4Philippines2,756,923 41,793 75 2 2 2 2 3 3Singapore172,644 315 51 - 1 - 1 2 3South Korea353,089 2,773 47 - 2 - 2 2 2Source: Knight Frank, Refinitiv, Calastone, New York Ti

42、mesCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYCONTAINMENT MEASURESMACROESGRESEARCHUN IPCC Under all emissions scenarios outlined in the UNs IPCC report, temperatures will pass 1.5oC above 1850-1900 levels by 2040 and extreme weather occu

43、rrences will be more frequent. Therefore, the Paris Agreements goal of stabilising temperatures at 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century will require significant action. As result, the UK, US and EU have accelerated their emissions targets:UK: to reduce emissions by 78% before

44、2035 (vs 1990 levels). EU: to cut emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (vs 1990 levels).US: to cut emissions by 52% by 2030 (vs 2005 levels).Inflows into ESG funds grew sevenfold to $15bn between 2019 and 2020.ESG funds have taken $84 out of every net $100 flowing into equity funds over the same period

45、.7xThe growth of capital inflow into ESG funds in 2020ESG FUNDS & SUSTAINABLE FINANCEEU AND UK EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM TRACKEREU Allowance (EUA) and UK Allowance (UKA) grant the entitlement to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent gas.EU daily carbon market price, ICE EUA Futures, UK daily ca

46、rbon market price, ICE UKA Future, 1 day1 week1 monthJan 20LastPercentage change since, %Price, 1 day1 week1 monthJun 21Percentage change since, %EMISSION TARGETSLastPrice, 48%The growth of sustainable bonds in Q1 2021 vs Q4 2020Global sustainable finance bond issuance increased 48% to $286.5bn in Q

47、1 2021 compared to the previous quarter, the highest quarterly level on record.Sustainable finance bonds share of global debt capital markets reached 11.5% in Q1 2021, up from 9.5% in Q4 2020.Equity issuance from sustainable companies increased 62% over the quarter to $11.2bn in Q1 2021. The America

48、s accounted for 75% of the sustainable equity market, followed by Europe (24%).62%The growth in sustainable equity in Q1 2021 vs Q4 2020MACROECONOMIC INDICATORSSource: Trading EconomicsCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAI

49、NMENT MEASURESMACRORESEARCHMarketPopulationGDPInterestInflationJoblessGov. BudgetDebt/GDPCurrent Account/ GDPmillion$tnYoYQoQ rate raterate% of GDP%Australia26 1,331 9.6%0.7%0.10%3.8%4.6%-4.3%24.8%2.5Austria9 429 12.0%3.6%0.00%3.3%6.5%-8.9%83.9%2.5Belgium12 515 14.9%1.7%0.00%2.9%6.4%-9.4%114.1%-0.2B

50、razil212 1,445 12.4%-0.1%6.25%10.3%13.7%-13.4%88.8%-0.72Canada38 1,643 12.7%-0.3%0.25%4.4%6.9%-15.9%117.8%-1.9China Mainland1,444 14,723 4.9%0.2%3.85%0.7%4.9%-3.7%66.8%1.9Denmark6 352 9.8%2.8%-0.60%2.2%3.6%-3.5%42.2%7.8Egypt101 363 2.9%2.9%8.25%6.6%7.3%-9.0%88.0%-3.5Euro Area342 12,933 14.3%2.2%0.00

51、%3.4%7.5%-7.2%98.0%3.0Finland6 271 7.5%2.1%0.00%2.5%6.5%-5.4%69.2%0.3France67 2,603 18.7%1.1%0.00%2.2%8.0%-9.2%115.7%-1.9Germany83 3,806 9.4%1.6%0.00%4.1%3.6%-4.2%69.8%7Hong Kong SAR7 347 7.6%-0.9%0.86%1.4%4.5%-12.0%38.4%6.6India1,347 2,623 20.1%2.1%4.00%4.4%6.9%-9.4%69.6%0.9Indonesia270 1,058 7.1%3

52、.3%3.50%1.6%6.3%-6.5%38.5%-0.44Ireland5 419 21.6%6.3%0.00%3.7%6.4%-5.0%59.5%4.6Israel9 402 15.4%3.9%0.10%2.5%5.2%-11.7%71.1%4.9Italy60 1,886 17.3%2.7%0.00%2.5%9.3%-9.5%155.8%3.6Japan126 5,065 7.6%0.5%-0.10%0.2%2.8%-12.6%266.2%3.2Netherlands17 912 10.4%3.8%0.00%2.7%3.1%-4.3%54.5%7.8Nigeria206 432 5.0

53、%-13.9%11.50%16.6%33.3%-3.8%35.0%-4.2Norway5 362 6.1%1.1%0.25%4.1%5.1%-3.4%46.0%2Philippines110 361 11.8%-1.3%2.00%4.8%6.9%-7.5%53.5%3.6Poland38 594 11.1%2.1%0.50%5.9%5.6%-7.0%57.5%3.6Romania19 249 13.9%1.9%1.50%6.3%5.2%-9.2%47.3%-5.1Russia146 1,484 10.5%0.0%7.50%7.4%4.4%-3.8%17.8%2.4Singapore6 340

54、6.5%0.8%0.07%2.5%2.7%-13.9%131.0%17.6South Africa59 302 19.3%1.2%3.50%5.0%34.4%-12.3%83.0%2.2South Korea52 1,631 6.0%0.8%0.75%2.5%3.0%-6.1%42.6%3.5Spain47 1,281 17.5%1.1%0.00%4.0%15.3%-11.0%120.0%0.7Sweden10 538 9.7%0.9%0.00%2.5%8.2%-3.1%39.9%5.2Switzerland9 748 7.7%1.8%-0.75%0.9%2.6%-2.6%42.9%3.8Tu

55、rkey84 720 21.7%0.9%16.00%19.6%12.1%-3.4%39.5%-5.1UAE10 421 -6.1%2.0%1.50%0.6%5.0%-0.8%36.9%5.9UK67 2,708 23.6%5.5%0.10%3.1%4.5%-14.2%97.2%-3.5US329 20,937 12.2%6.7%0.25%5.4%4.8%-14.9%107.6%-3.1Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of c

56、lientsworldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clientsrecognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. Important Notice: Knight Frank LLP2021 This report is published for general inform

57、ation only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standardshave been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, noresponsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from a

58、ny useof, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarilyrepresent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole orin part is not allowed without prior written app

59、roval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears.Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registeredoffice is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members names.Knight Frank Re

60、search Reports are available at Ormond, CFAPartner Head of Capital Markets Research+44 20 7861 Antonia HaralambousSenior AnalystCapital Markets Research+44 20 3866 ContributorsWilliam MatthewsPartnerHead of Commercial Research+44 20 3909 Daniel TomaselliSenior AnalystCapital Markets Research+44 20

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62、hat will define the next chapter?Recent researchThe London Report 2021The London Report 2021 edition, delivers the crucial message that London is uniquely placed to not only drive business growth and attract global capital, but also respond to the new demands of a post-pandemic world - greater susta

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