1、 2021 12 31 % 1M 3M 12M 7.36 7.41 -6.53 300 3.30 1.16 3.27 1 2021-10-18 2020A 2021E 2022E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 0.18 - 0.26 86.07 0.42 53.20 1.69 - 1.91 27.86 2.47 21.51 wind 2021 10 12衱 2025 80 50 1棬2020 42%58% 30% 2025 80 2棬 1%塱 60% 10% 2025 50 45 档 80%-85% 10%2%-2.5%0.5%-1%3%-5% CR5 5% 2030 800 30

2、00 飺 5-10 棬档棬 磻 -30%-20%-10%0%10%2021-02 2021-06 2021-10() 300 -2- 1 裬 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 6 2 . 7 2.1 . 7 2.2 壬 . 8 2.3 . 9 2.4 2025 80 . 11 3 2025 50 . 13 3.1 . 13 3.2 . 15 3.3 10% 2025 50. 18 4 . 19 4.1 . 19 4.2 . 21 4.3 . 22 5 . 23 5.1 003032.SZ. 23 5.2 605098.SH . 24 6 . 24 1 . 5 2. 7 3. 8 4. 8 5

3、. 9 6仯. 9 7. 9 8. 9 9. 10 102020 . 10 11 . 13 12 . 13 13 . 14 14 . 14 15 . 14 16 . 15 17 . 15 18 . 15 19 . 18 20 . 20 oPpRoMpRsOwOsQsRyRxPxO6MdNbRtRnNtRoMeRoOqRfQmMqM6MmMuNwMmPvMuOoOoQ -3- 21 . 20 22 . 20 23 . 20 24 . 21 25 . 21 262020 . 21 27 . 22 28 . 22 12020 -2025 . 4 2. 5 3 . 6 4 .11 5 5 . 12 6

4、2026 -2035 . 12 7 32 . 16 8. 17 9 5 . 19 10 . 19 -4- 1 裬 2021 10 12 1.1 档棬棬滮2020 -2025 10% 12020-2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020-2025 2020-2025 1800 2000 750 950 2% 5% 750 900 300 450 4% 8% 68.9 96.6 19.8 47.5 7% 19% 118.6 128.8 16.4 26.6 2% 10% 38.4 43 6 10.6 2% 12% 85 120 68 103 7% 9% 1233 1731 411

5、909 7% 17% 45.2 72.3 16.9 44 10% 21% 900 1000 300 400 2% 6% 80 100 25 45 5% 12% 滮 20 01 -5- 2014 滮2014-2020 2018 裬 32019 -潨棬2019 20 1+X 棬2021 10 İ 1 , 2 1996 1997 2002 2005 2010 800 2014 2020 2015 棬齨 -6- 2019 20 202220191+X 20196 2019-2021 5000201915002021 25% 30% 2020

6、9 9 2020 2023 2021 2021 2025 10%2035 , 1.2 裬衢嵼淶磬棬棬棬 3 / 嵼 201811淶 20217 202110 淶 -7- 沢 , 2025 10% 2035 1壻2裬3 2 2 2.1 2020 644.66 876.44 42%58% 2005 2010 -8- 800 /2009 2010 2011 2019 20 +1+X 3 4 wind wind 2.2 壬 塣2020 9896 2008 14847 4951 33.35% 2012 572 3002015 116 2020 60 2015 2017 333 2020 240 2020

7、 3266 3216 2423 991 仯 2004 7.19% 2004 15.98% 2004 63.86%44.37%塢磬 644.66876.440200400600800016001800 40%45%50%55%60% -9- 5 6仯 wind wind 塱 2.28pct 6.10pct2011 2018壩 20 2020 9.74%20190.08pct249.40201911.16% 14.99% 2019 0.76pct 7 8 wind wind 2.3 1 70% 613 30%%42%44%46%48

8、%50%02000400060008000400016000 004000500060007000 3234 1953 19.74%0%5%10%15%20%25%05000250030003500 249.4014.99%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0500300350 -10- 5%-10% 202030%2020 786.53 484.87 1071 20% 70 9.5%2020 40 110 23% 30% 9 102020 wind wind 13+顱飬23453+23+2+23

9、+4漰61071.00786.53020040060080010001200 -11- 4 3+顱 / 1 +飨徺 / 3豨 / 3 5 6 3+2 3+2+23+4 6 2.4 202580 3 2025 8012010 8.3 2019 3.5102 10赽 2025 50%2 2021 1 2025 80.21%3 -12- 赽 2025 30% 1 2035 40% 2025 190 2020 80 11.45% 55 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 15 1617 1568.16 1578.06 1591.92 1598.85 1572.12 /

10、 39.87% 41.87% 43.87% 45.87% 47.87% 50% 644.66 656.55 692.26 730.18 765.33 786.06 75.21% 76.21% 77.21% 78.21% 79.21% 80.21% 484.87 500.38 534.52 571.10 606.25 630.53 23.00% 24.40% 25.80% 27.20% 28.60% 30.00% 70-1102.3 122.09 137.91 155.34 173.39 189.16 wind 2018 2020 1200 仯2031 275 2035 2020 100 620

11、26-2035 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 15 1587.96 1618.65 1623.6 1670.13 1638.45 1768.14 1705.77 1507.77 1450.35 1188 / 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 793.98 809.33 811.80 835.07 819.23 884.07 852.89 753.89 725.18 594.00 81.21% 82.21% 83.21% 84.21% 85.21% 86.21%

12、 87.21% 88.21% 89.21% 90.21% 644.82 665.37 675.53 703.24 698.09 762.19 743.83 665.03 646.95 535.87 31.00% 32.00% 33.00% 34.00% 35.00% 36.00% 37.00% 38.00% 39.00% 40.00% 199.89 212.92 222.92 239.10 244.33 274.39 275.22 252.71 252.31 214.35 wind -13- 3 2025 50 3.1 60% 42.7% 54.4%2019 2020 483.61 524.3

13、4 52.33 81.222021 3 塱滮 2035 塱 60% 60% 11 12 wind=(18-22)100% wind 102020 1468 2008 23.99% 1270 2008 17.7%2020 9942 2010 2.52% 14376 2010 2.36% 54.4%60%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%524.34443.0400500600 -14- 13 14 wind wind 15 wind 2008 轨İ2020 5 蹤 2020 蹤裬İ2020 241 2019 16 2020 2021 1 10

14、040060080001600 1459.551825.75020040060080000 9942008000400016000 -15- 16 17 wind wind 3.2 2014 2019 152021 涨 18 塱塱滮塱 3 12衣漰369 370 371 388 390 392 420 423 424 426 419 434 434 322 322 323 309 303 292283 275 266 265 265 257240025030035

15、0400450500 3370%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%00 -16- 5%-20%3 33 22 1 10 俴2019 2020 2021 15 7 11 22 66.67% 80% 7 32 1 2019 2 2019 3 2019 4 2019 5 2019 6 2019 7 2019 8 2019 9 2019 10 2019 11 2019 12 2019 13 2019 14 2019 15 2019 16 2020 17 2020 18 2020 19 2020 20 2020 21 2020 22 2020 23 2021 24 20

16、21 25 2021 26 2021 27 2021 28 2021 29 2021 -17- 30 2021 31 2021 32 2021 33 2021 2021 1 50% 50% 90% 85%徭豸豸 20000 4500 -7500 İİ 8 8000 8000 3-5 20 181 181 450 50% 50% 30% 400 30 100 50% 25% 20% 50% 5 5003000 5202 22 10 6 2 1 5 20 5 1000500 5 2 800 500 60 60 24 15 -18- 30 30 /2015, /30 /20/15/30 豸 /100

17、007000/8000 /5000/3000/4000 1 1 3.3 10%202550 1%2020 524.34 2020 32 4.2 1500-2000 1% 202510% 19 , 10% 2025 50 18 18 裺塱2025 60%/18 2021 1 27002350 22292070 2000 2000 1956 1944 0 1426 1387 448 350 350 33005000250030003500 2020 2021 -19- 10% 10% 2025 591.21 2020 62.69 2

18、.27% 60 2020 55 95 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 18 1647 1599 1593 1617 1584 1594 54.4% 55.5% 56.6% 57.8% 58.9% 60.0% / 32.09% 33.09% 34.09% 35.09% 36.09% 37.09% 528.52 529.10 543.05 567.40 571.66 591.21 10% 4.2 59.12 45档 10 2000 2025 15 60 档 10 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 22 32 42 52 62

19、 72 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 4.18 6.40 8.40 10.40 12.40 14.40 4 4.1 2014 2020 3154.46 -20- 8.68% 2014 0.7pct2020 1595 44.71%66.68%1419.5227.77% 54.20% 20 21 wind wind 22 23 wind wind 豸豸İ/2020 20311.63 76.71% 24269.66 43.23%7.4%7.6%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.6%8.8%9.0%05000250030003500 50.56%4

20、5.00%0%20%40%60%80%100% 1595.00 44.71%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0200400600800016001800 /1,419.52 27.77%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%020040060080001600 / -21- 2019 2020 24 25 wind wind 4.2 80%-85%10%2%-2.5%0.5%-1%3%-5% 2020 0.97% 0.79%CR5 3.09% 5%档 262020 wind 20311.63 76.71%72.0%75.0%78.0%8

21、1.0%84.0%87.0%040008000000024000 /24269.66 43.88%43.23%39.0%40.0%41.0%42.0%43.0%44.0%45.0%46.0%0002400025000 /0.97%0.79%0.52%0.38%0.43%0.38%0.14% 0.07% -22- 4.3 2030 8003000 裺1 20251550%202039.87%2 2030 20%2020 14.99%X =X-1-X-3+X *=/32021 12000/ 5%4=*2030 875.80 2020

22、 208.04%11.91% 裺1 2030 18 70%202058.74%2 203030%202024.09% 28%2020 22.14% X =X-1-X-4+X *=/32021 18000 / 5%4=*20303561.542020163.20% 10.16% 1487.10 12.44% 2074.44 8.80% 27 28 wind wind 284.32564.79875.8000500600700800900720021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2

23、030ECAGR10=11.91%460.49912.721487.10892.701367.872074.440500025003000350040002001920202021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E( CAGR10=10.16%CAGR10=12.44%CAGR10=8.80% -23- 5 2021 & 5-10 1档2 5.1 003032.SZ IT avaEEHTML&JS+ Python+UI/UE塢19 2021 4.9 11.12% 0.64 361.21% 1.37 Q3 1.96 0.2 10 飻70%棬 5% 鷴 2021/2022 /2023 8.00 /10.79 /144.57 1.03 /1.67 /2.79 EPS 0.26 /0.42 /0.69 PE 86.07 /53.20 /31.89 PETTM 100 70-80 2022 蹫 55-60 PE 23.10 -25.20 蹫