1、70 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS THAT WILLAND WILL NOTSHAPE Dear Colleagues,The year 2021 was a tumultuous one full of challenges. It is clear that 2022 will continue along that vein and perhaps see some of the trends of 2021 become further exacerbated. The ABI Research team of analysts has taken a position on

2、some of the most telling trends that they expect to happen in 2022 and those that they dont expect to materialize, despite the hype, column inches, and mass media focus.The fallout from COVID-19 prevention measures, the process of transitioning from pandemic to endemic disease, and global political

3、tensions weigh heavily on the coming years fortunes. Supply chain issues look set to continue, 5G will continue to struggle in the enterprise sector and wont be seen on the production line, UWB will start to bring precise location to the fore, and the Chinese vendor community will retain its strangl

4、ehold on the IoT module market. These are among the 35 predictions of what will happen and 35 predictions of what will not happen.This whitepaper is a tool for our readers to help shape their understanding of the key critical trends that look set to materialize in 2022 as the world begins to emerge

5、from the shadow of COVID-19. It also highlights those much-vaunted trends that are less likely to have meaningful impact in 2022.Our team at ABI Research stands ready to continue to support our clients as they take advantage of the opportunities that periods of change provide and looks forward to ar

6、ming them with the key decision tools they need to act with speed, appropriateness, and efficiency. The year 2022 will be challenging, but it also holds great promise and great opportunity.Stuart Carlaw Chief Research Officer ABI ResearchFrom Our Chief Research Officer3 5G Core and Edge Networks5 5G

7、 Devices, Smartphones, and Wearables 8 5G Markets10 5G and Mobile Network Infrastructure12 AI and Machine Learning13 Augmented and Virtual Reality14 Digital Security16 Distributed and Edge Computing17 Industrial and Collaborative Robotics18 Industrial and Manufacturing20 IoT Hardware and Device21 Io

8、T Markets22 IoT Networks and Services 24 Location Technologies25 Metaverse Markets & Technologies26 Smart Cities and Smart Spaces28 Smart Home29 Smart Mobility and Automotive31 Supply Chain Management and Logistics33 Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Wireless ConnectivityResearch Service AEcosystem Disaggregati

9、on to Dilute Incumbents Stranglehold on the Market Ecosystem disaggregation trends like open Radio Access Network (RAN), public cloud, and 5G core networks point to a gradual evolution in product architecture from integrated designs toward modular stacks. An “all-in-one” approach, championed by inte

10、grated vendors (e.g., Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, and ZTE), is eventually complemented by “best-of-breed” modular solutions provided by new suppliers like Altiostar and Mavenir. In other words, the modular nature of key industry trends alters the industry structure because it opens new opportunities fo

11、r pure-play software vendors to sell, buy, and assemble plug-compatible components and subsystems. This, in turn, gives rise to a diluted degree of differentiation because a population of non-integrated vendors starts to compete with integrated suppliers that occupy a dominant position in the ecosys

12、tem. If integration in the past was a competitive necessity, in the future, it may become a competitive disadvantage, if not approached with prudence. Winners will be those vendors that strike a balance between integrated architectures and software-based, modular solutions. That way, they can compet

13、e effectively with granular business modules that solve problems and create value.Communication Service Providers Building Cloud-Native 5G Networks Will First Deploy Core Network Functions as Containers in Virtual MachinesA trend that is picking up pace is for Mobile Service Providers (MSPs) to embr

14、ace public clouds for growth opportunities outside of the consumer market. The most interesting scenario for this type of collaboration will be for Communication Service Providers (CSPs) to partner with public cloud providers to seek operational efficiencies for non-network workloads. For example, A

15、T&T has partnered with Microsoft, in order to bring Azure workloads to AT&Ts edge computing locations. This is the first case when a CSP can offer something unique to a webscale. These exclusive partnerships could restrict the partnering potential of CSPs, but ABI Research expects several of these p

16、artnerships to be announced during 2022, and even making webscale giants vital for the success of enterprise 5G applications.The role that public clouds will play in how CSPs position themselves in the future remains to be seen. However, CSPs should consider staking their success on the ability to m

17、ake commitments today that may not pay off until years into the future. In other words, their strategy should begin with a high tolerance for risk and what they do not know over cloud and associated economic models, rather than what they do know. Successful strategies must be built on a degree of un

18、predictability, not in spite of it.5 G C O R E AN D E D G E N E T WORKSPublic Cloud for Core Networks Not Taking Off in 2022The industry is witnessing a tectonic shift in the core network domain. For example, On June 30, Microsoft announced that it intends to acquire AT&Ts Intellectual Property (IP)

19、 and human capital for AT&Ts Network Cloud Platform. By contrast, Verizon announced recently that it will use its public cloud selectively. Verizon deploys its own cloud infrastructure to host its 5G core network. This may well be a prudent move by Verizon and provides a lesson that can be applied b

20、roadly. CSPs should understand that, at a very fundamental level, optionality, monetization potential, and sustainable competencies come from control and integration, particularly in the core network. For now, CSPs strategic high ground is the core network, especially with 5G Next Generation Core (N

21、GC) that promises to deliver enterprise applications, including network slicing and low-latency applications. Broadly speaking, the winners will be those that not only keep an eye on the present, but also look out to the future. Verizons public cloud strategy preserves the present, and that is a bal

22、anced decision. By contrast, AT&Ts partnership is arguably aimed at the future by pursuing a novel strategy that hedges its bets. That matters. But whether it is sufficient is a function of the companies that AT&Tand the broader CSP communitycompetes with, now and in the future.Core Network Componen

23、ts and Many Cloud-Native Network Functions Will Not be Deployed Directly on Bare MetalAlthough the cloud-native proposition includes microservices that are highly agile and can be spun up immediately for ultra-low-latency application when deployed on bare metal, there will not be mass deployments of

24、 Cloud-Native Network Functions (CNFs) on bare metal yet. Instead, CSPs will opt for an evolution toward CNFs that entails a single platform that can host both VNFs and CNFs, often through VMs.Cloud-native technologies (i.e., containers and microservices) are steadily encroaching on the telco ecosys

25、tem and promote scalability, resilience across hybrid (virtual and physical) architectures, and ultra-rapid deployment and innovation cycles. This is now becoming a critical priority for Communication System Providers (CSPs) who wish to compete against webscales for Business-to-Business (B2B) and en

26、terprise 5G.At present, there is no “one-size-fits-all” approach for cloud-native tools. However, ABI Research expects to see some common denominators appearing in 2022 across all market activities; specifically, the need to industrialize existing domain-specific and narrow deployments, scale across

27、 multiple geographies, and bring to market easy to consume products. These are not trivial and remain some of the biggest hurdles for the industry to pursue new growth with more manageable and automated networks. ABI Research expects the industry at large to join forces in 2022 to establish standard

28、s for cloud-native tools and methodologies in a bid to render them ready for telco networks. But caution must be taken that such standards do not retard speed and efficiency by trying to adapt these cloud-native solutions into a rigid telco framework that most vendors and CSPs are accustomed to, but

29、 to start with a fresh approach.5 G C O R E AN D E D G E N E T WORKSArm Will be Forced to Change Its Business Model to Sustain InnovationIt was announced over a year ago that an agreement had been reached for NVIDIA to acquire Arm for US$40 billion, despite the takeover still needing approval from t

30、he European Union (EU) and several regulators around the world, as well as from Arms IP licensees. However, this development has uncovered numerous concerns about Arms future, and chief among them is the lack of synergy needed to transform itself and grow beyond just licensing its IP. Arm is in cruc

31、ial need of expanding its engineering resources, while revamping its business model and technology offerings, if it wants to cope effectively with the phenomenal demand for technology innovation required to sustain the mobile and the computing ecosystems, and to become a key solution provider for th

32、e markets it serves.With or without the NVIDIA acquisition, if Arms Research and Development (R&D) and engineering resources do not evolve in line with market demand for innovation, then the entire industry will be slowed because it is Arms Instruction Set Architectures (ISAs) and micro-architecture

33、s that are the foundation platforms for innovation in the mobile computing markets. Therefore, it will be incumbent on the industry to inject billions of dollars to expand Arms R&D and sustain innovation because the company cannot achieve this objective under the current status quo. If this is not a

34、ddressed, then Arm will not be able to execute on its ambitious plans with the resources it has currently, which could become a major issue that will affect the entire industry.Smartphone Vendor Landscape Will Change (and Huawei Will be Close to a Market Exit)Despite the extremely challenging indust

35、ry backdrop of a global pandemic, geopolitical trade wars, and chipset shortages, the smartphone market has been remarkably resilient. Although global smartphone shipments did drop in 2020, the growth of 5G during the year was stellar, and this is set to continue, although market uncertainties regar

36、ding component supply constraints and COVID-19 are likely to linger. While shipments are set to return to pre-pandemic levels, the vendor landscape is set to change drastically with LG making the decision to leave the smartphone market by the end of July 2021, citing enormous competitive pressures.

37、However, a key casualty of the geopolitical wars is Huawei. From being a top-two vendor in 2019, Huawei now has a real struggle on its hands to stay in the smartphone market in the longer term and rebuild its tainted brand outside of China.Its shipments have been steadily dwindling since 2020, with

38、competitors such as Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo all taking market share at its expense, with a collapse of its high-end offerings expected in 2022 due to lack of access to leading technology. Unless the trade embargo lifts, which now looks like it might intensify rather than wane, the com

39、pany will become entirely reliant on markets in China, other parts of Asia, and Africa to survive, mainly with 4G, and is expected to exit the market in 2023, unless a resolution can be found. It can be argued that Huaweis anticipated descent will reach a tipping point that could see a fundamental r

40、eshaping of the mobile device supply chain and chipset market, and having a significant bearing on the landscape of Chinas influential smartphone market, potentially blighting 5G innovation in the short term.5 G D E V IC E S, SM ART PHO NES, AND WEARABLESPandemic-Fueled Growth Will Continue for the

41、Wearables and Wireless Headsets SectorsThe onset of COVID-19 has seen demand for wearables and wireless headsets grow significantly as a result of changes in lifestyle and consumer behavior instigated by the pandemic. Smartwatches and fitness trackers have evolved into effective and reliable health

42、and activity monitoring devices that have experienced an increase in demand as consumers become more health conscious, embracing a need to track and monitor health vitals. This demand is expected to continue, primarily due to the increasing number of use cases and their improved features tracking fu

43、nctions, such as performing Electrocardiograms and monitoring blood oxygen levels, heart rates, autonomic nervous system and recovery, and sleep patterns. The pandemic is also promoting the democratization of some practical mobile features, such as contactless payment, voice control, and wireless ch

44、arging, which all help minimize contact with other devices or surfaces.Additionally, with more time being spent at home, the pandemic has seen an uptick in the use of wireless headsets, driven by the need for personalized audio experiences that minimize external distractions and achieve high-quality

45、 sound. ABI Research forecasts that wireless headset shipments will reach more than 1 billion units in 2026 and will lead the smart accessories market. Demand will be driven further by lower device costs in combination with technological innovations, such as Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) Audio, Tiny Ma

46、chine Learning (TinyML), and built-in sensors that will unlock new use cases and applications. True wireless headsets are the most promising wearable category, and upcoming advancements in noise cancellation technology will also enhance the user experience and support a wider range of use cases. Mor

47、eover, true wireless headsets will become key drivers for the growth/adoption of voice assistants, as voice control becomes the primary user interface for hands-free control of smart devices. Other promising headset applications include music therapy that can treat anxiety or sleeping disorders, whi

48、ch becomes more efficient with the expected advancements in spatial sound, noise cancellation, and integration of digital assistants. ABI Research forecasts that global true wireless headset shipments will surpass 600 million units in 2026.5 G D E V IC E S, SM ART PHO NES, AND WEARABLES5G mmWave Sma

49、rtphone Shipments Will Not (Yet) Reach Critical Mass in 2022The industrys move toward the use of 5G New Radio (NR) Millimeter Wave (mmWave) technology had been challenging to be of practical use in mobile devices, mainly due to limited coverage and being overly costly to implement. However, with man

50、y of these technology barriers having been overcome, 5G mmWave is now a commercial reality in smartphones as the complexity of integrating it into smartphones has been addressed through the use of an evolved system approach and a fully integrated Radio Frequency (RF) module design, offering improved