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1、74 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS THAT WILLAND WILL NOT SHAPE Dear Colleagues,2023 is going to be a tough year.War,inflation,political upheaval,energy shortages,and the ongoing fallout from a global pandemic are still creating a persistent sense of uncertainty at best and downright depression at worst.Labor shor
2、tages,supply chain issues,falling consumer sentiment,and rising input costs are squeezing many markets.Not all segments are equal,and some are growing,while others are contracting.However,the common aspect between all of these is that technology can either be the anchor dragging down operations or t
3、he mainsail powering companies forward.The devil is in the detail of the how,who,what,and when of technology investment and implementation.To help provide some clarity for the year ahead,ABI Researchs global team of analysts offered their insights into the technology trends that willand will notshap
4、e 2023.The post-quantum cryptography market will kick off;there will be a renaissance in enterprise Virtual Reality(VR)with heavy investments and new use cases;and mounting regulations will push the supply chain and logistics industry to invest in and adopt end-to-end visibility and reporting capabi
5、lities.These are just some of the major storylines we expect to materialize in 2023.However,there are also many trends that are generating tons of hype,but dont seem ripe for reality,such as private 5G,an industrial metaverse,the rapid rollout of Electric Vehicles(EVs),to name a few.Altogether,this
6、whitepaper includes 41 predictions of what will happen and 33 predictions of what will not happen in 2023.We hope that it serves as a helpful blueprint for building realistic expectations of key technology markets and verticals.2023 promises to be yet another in a series of challenging years.But,as
7、always,the ABI Research team is here to help our clients by empowering them with the insight,guidance,and tools they need to take advantage of every opportunity.Stuart Carlaw Chief Research Officer ABI ResearchFROM OUR CHIEF RESEARCH OFFICER5G Core&Edge Networks.35G Devices,Smartphones,&Wearables.55
8、G Markets.85G&Mobile Network Infrastructure.10AI&Machine Learning.11Augmented&Virtual Reality.13Citizen Digital Identity.15Cybersecurity Applications.16Digital Payment Technologies.17Distributed&Edge Computing.18Industrial,Collaborative&Commercial Robotics.19Industrial Cybersecurity .21Industrial&Ma
9、nufacturing Markets.22Industrial&Manufacturing Technologies.23IoT Cybersecurity.24IoT Hardware&Devices.25IoT Markets.26Location Technologies.27Metaverse Markets&Technologies.29Satellite Technologies.30Smart Homes&Buildings.31Smart Mobility&Automotive.32Smart Urban Infrastructure.34Supply Chain Manag
10、ement&Logistics.35Sustainable Technologies.37Telco Cybersecurity.39Trusted Device Solutions.40Wi-Fi,Bluetooth&Wireless Connectivity.41Research Service AXaaS Models in 5G Core Network Lead to New Value CreationA trend that will pick up pace in 2023 is for Communication Service Providers(CSPs)to embra
11、ce Everything-as-a-Service(XaaS)models as they continue with 5G Core(5GC)rollouts.Possession is not as important as it once was.Accessing is more important than ever.With“tech access,”CSPs seek varied capacity models for their core networks that fluctuate based on consumption,i.e.,“no consumption,no
12、 money”models.That is hardly new news,but a tough economy and all-around cost increases accelerate that trend markedly.CSPs seek to transform their cost structure and shield margins by avoiding capital outlays,closely associated with Capital Expenditure(CAPEX),in favor of variable costs over time.5G
13、C suppliers are responding accordingly to meet that market demand.With a growing Software-as-a-Service(SaaS)portfolio,Nokia,for instance,seeks to free CSPs from the burden of costly and time-consuming product maintenance as they progress with their 5GC rollouts to pursue new value creation.But the s
14、witch from“tech ownership”to“tech access”overturns many conventions.For CSPs,the move from ownership to access comes with a price.Part of what CSPs own with their core network ownership is the rightand abilityto control and integrate their assets.The right to integrate comes with network ownership,n
15、ot network access.CSPs ability to modify and integrate will be a key discussion topic going forward.On a separate,but related strand,XaaS upends the existing competitive landscape and market economics for Network Equipment Vendors(NEVs).XaaS models may well mean that Ericsson,Huawei,Nokia,and ZTE fa
16、ce a strategic challenge of the first order:how do they need to transform their operating models and how do they modernize their product design to compete with entities whose existence is anchored on consumption models from the ground up?5GC Will Achieve Mainstream Market AdoptionBy now,there is a g
17、rowing realization that merely using existing Evolved Packet Core(EPC)for 5G(5G Non-Standalone(NSA)may not be sufficient for new growth.5G-NSA provides a good start for enhanced bandwidth and increased capacity requirements at a lower cost per Megabyte(MB),but eventually,there needs to be a transiti
18、on to 5GC networks operating in 5G Standalone(SA)mode for CSPs to not only enhance the consumer experience,but importantly,to tap into the enterprise and industrial revenue opportunity.According to Oracle,64%of CSPs believe that 5GC stands to enable better experiences in the next 3 years.Further,wit
19、h 5GC,it is the first time that CSPs rely on the core network to introduce something above and beyond Mobile Broadband(MBB).To date,there are 30+5GC live networks deployments.With a growing 5G subscriber uptake,and ongoing move of 4G traffic to 5G networks,the expectation is that 5GC networks will e
20、nter the mainstream market in 2023 and onward.Orange,for example,highlights that it aims to deploy 5GC networks in key European markets from 2023.But work remains to be done for widespread commercialization.According to ABI Researchs syndicated research,with 3G and 4G,the likes of BT,Orange,and Tele
21、fnica drive value with a centrally governed operating model.A“build it and they will come”approach is the starting point,and“what technology CSPs can build”is the foundation of that model.Tech sets the(consumer)business agenda.That constitutes a top-down approach.For 5GC commercialization beyond MBB
22、,the existing modus operandi will need to be supplemented with a decentralized approach.What(enterprise)customers need becomes the starting point.Their business strategy sets the tech agenda.And a bottom-up approach is the name of the new growth game.That is because in a horizontally stratified 5G e
23、cosystem,requirements constantly change,and one shoe does not fit all.This inevitable,perpetual change stands to be the pivotal axis for the industry.But learning how to operate in this fluid ecosystem is a multi-faceted journey.125G C OR E&EDG E NETWORK SInfrastructure Vendors Integrated Equipment
24、Product Playbook in Core Networks Will Not Maintain RelevanceA significant shift is beginning.In the growing world of cloud and services,software stands to be a key differentiator for the industry.For example,5G is the first“G”that paves the way for CSPs to operate solely in the software layer.Thoug
25、h very subtle,what is happening is the consumerization of network equipment.This is a major market development that will soon knock on NEVs C-Level executives door.With ongoing cloudification and,by extension,consumerization of network equipment,the commercial imperative from an NEVs perspective is
26、stark:depart from the finite supply of integrated equipment that optimizes performance,to monetization models based on cloud software where the supply is essentially infinite.For example,a rapid proliferation of software-fueled advances means that todays classic sales model for Cisco,Hewlett Packard
27、 Enterprises(HPE),and Juniper is very likely to wane in importance.That is because in a software-based setting,one characterized by no real selling cycles and no high price points,equipment prices and margins stand to be diluted.Historically,suppliers have viewed product waves and tech adoption cycl
28、ically according to the product playbook.NEVs product playbook centers around selling standard,repeatable equipment.With each network generation,NEVs build an incremental product through a new cycle that links to the first one,and then repeat the cycle.It is a simple,highly-effective sequence in whi
29、ch volume equals profit and standardization drives volume.But,as articulated above,the disruptive promise of software,alongside increased scrutiny of tech ownership costs,provide the underpinnings of a sea change in how NEVs must operate to drive growth.In a world of low price points and no real sel
30、ling cycles,if NEVs do not hedge their strategic bets,they will be walking a tight rope without a net.Swapping one high-price,high-margin product(cycle)with another is no longer that simple.5GC in Three-Layered Cloud Stacks Will Not HappenInitial CSP preference,to date,has been to let 5GC Network Fu
31、nctions(NFs)CJH1 suppliers implement their own stack platform in what leads to dedicated clusters.Most vendors 5GC offerings support several cloud infrastructure stacks,including vendors own Network Functions Virtualization Infrastructure(NFVI)(telco cloud)stack,cloud-native infrastructure solution
32、on bare metal,and Third-Party Provider(3PP)cloud infrastructure(e.g.,Canonical,Red Hat,and VMware).Ericsson is a case in point.ABI Research estimates that only 15%to 20%of 5G deployments,to date,are on three-layered,decoupled stacks where players like Canonical,Red Hat,and VMware provide the abstrac
33、tion layer.There are three decision points for CSPs as far as cloud stack selection goes:1)establishing demarcation points between 5GCs cloudified network functions and network elements still in physical form;2)establishing a cloud-native blueprint for suppliers to deploy their software against,not
34、the other way around;and 3)maintain control and design of key 5GC components.There are some 5GC deployments on Hyperscale Cloud Provider(HCP)stacks.They are on a Proof of Concept(PoC)basis and focus on vertical industries.DISH,for example,uses Amazon Web Services(AWS)for its 5G rollouts;anecdotal da
35、ta points from the industry suggest that less than one-third of DISHs workloads are currently hosted on AWS.AWS,Google Cloud,and Microsoft Azure have a place in the ecosystem as reflected in numerous ABI Research market intelligence reports.But,in the near term,CSPs are likely to host their core net
36、work workloads in on-premises cloud stacks.The opportunity for HCPs to host voice and data workloads is a function of performance in terms of functionality and reliability,but also a function of security,data sovereignty,and cost.For voice,but also for some data workloads,according to some industry
37、voices,and as covered in ABI Researchs deliverables in 2022,there remain core network functions for which CSPs need to optimize for performance.That,for the time being,may be easier achieved with owned and proprietary on-premises Data Centers(DCs).345G C OR E&EDG E NETWORK SFoldable Devices Will Bec
38、ome More MainstreamFoldable devices are growing steadily,and will surely become mainstream in the near future.The year 2023 is going to be the one for foldable devices,as Original Equipment Manufacturers(OEMs)are betting high on the emerging set of modern designs and form factors.The foldable device
39、 category was led by Samsung(Fold series and Flip series)for some years and can be seen growing with brands like Huawei,vivo,Motorola,and OPPO joining the bandwagon and launching foldable devices.The trend is expected to increase as more consumers are becoming attracted to this new form factor.ABI R
40、esearch forecasts that almost 22.5 million foldable phones will have shipped in 2022,reaching around 68 million units in 2025 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR)of 77.9%.Foldable devices offer a new user experience to consumers looking for the convenience of a smaller phone without having to comp
41、romise on the screen size.Huawei,Motorola,Xiaomi,vivo,Motorola,etc.are all launching the foldables phones,but are limited to geographical regions.ABI Research expects that the price of these devices will come down in the coming years,and the demand and geographical presence of these devices will inc
42、rease in the years to come.AI in Smartphones Will Become More ProminentArtificial Intelligence(AI)is a technology that continues to grow rapidly every year with groundbreaking innovation and use cases taking place every year within the tech industry.From healthcare to self-driven cars and from manuf
43、acturing to entertainment and gaming,AI will be prevalent in 2023.It is also expected that,by 2023,AI will have reached a point of being the single most gaming-changing invention in the history of mankind.Talking about the smartphone domain,AI has been one of the most important aspects in terms of i
44、nnovation in smartphones.Voice assistants and smart photos already being part of AI in smartphones has changed the way consumers are capturing images and interacting with their smartphones.Chipset vendors like Qualcomm and MediaTek have also launched their latest flagship models Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 a
45、nd Dimensity 9200,respectively,with a prime focus on AI.Both chipset manufacturers have already highlighted advanced AI use cases like sharpest and brightest cameras,immersive multimedia,gaming,security,and several other features.Smartphone vendors have already joined up with these chipset manufactu
46、rers to display the AI use cases and latest innovations in their devices in 2023.Growth in Wearables Will Continue Post-PandemicThe wearables market is poised to grow as the latest technologies and use cases are introduced every now and then.ABI Research forecasts that the total wearables market wil
47、l reach around 700 million by 2027 with a CAGR of 12.8%calculated from 2022 to 2027.Wearables that were once treated as“nice to have”devices have now become a necessity for consumers due to the increased adoption of the IoT and the increased use of technology by the population.ABI Research expects g
48、rowing demand for connected devices in the wearables industry(especially healthcare),which will take the wearables market to a new level in the coming years.Also,the OEMs will play an instrumental role in providing portable and simple form factors that will help the wearables industry grow in the ye
49、ars to come.We can already see traction of technology like bone conduction headphones,which are becoming an eye catcher for many consumers.The introduction of the Aura Ring and Whoop band to track the fitness regime of sports persons is also becoming quite common now.Increased cases of chronic disea
50、ses like cardiovascular diseases and obesity will lead to a larger demand for wearable devices.The next few years will be very exciting for the wearables industry as the use of sensors and digitally-equipped wearables increases,making healthcare a core center of innovation for wearable devices.ABI R
51、esearch also expects growth in the smart clothing category,driven by a huge demand for monitoring body activities used in various end-user industries like sports,healthcare etc.5675G DEVIC ES,SMARTPHONES,&WEARABLESHealthcare Wearables Will Become More PrevalentThe wearable technology market is flour
52、ishing with the latest innovations.Healthcare wearables like fitness trackers,smartwatches,biosensors,and blood pressure monitors have witnessed a booming demand lately and will become more prevalent in 2023 with more consumers focused on health and overall wellbeing.All of these wearable devices ha
53、ve largely been driven by fitness trackers in the past as people wanted to keep fit during the COVID-19 pandemic,but going forward these devices are expected to play a bigger role in the medical sector.We can already see the use of the Internet of Things(IoT)and real-time analysis of data in the med
54、ical and healthcare field,and this trend is going to be prominent as medical wearables will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of wearable devices in the healthcare industry.Whats really driving this trend is the availability of sensors that measure health-related data by becoming more sophis
55、ticated with better algorithms that interpret huge and fast amounts of data.This is done with the help of the computing power that can be packed into tiny devices called wearables.Healthcare wearables can capture multiple parameters,including counting steps,measuring heart rate and temperature,track
56、ing your sleep,etc.Medical wearables,such as Continuous Glucose Monitor(CGM)systems,can also help treat and monitor patients with precision.Long-term monitoring will drive preventative care and actions,resulting in more reliability on these healthcare and medical devices.The use of these advanced de
57、vices can send the patients health information to doctors in real time,saving time and enabling the patient to take precautionary measures as instructed by the doctor.Smartphone Sales Will Not Bounce Back to Pre-Pandemic LevelsChanges in consumer behavior caused by the pandemic have had a direct imp
58、act on some device sectors,creating spikes in demand for items like tablets,notebooks,wearables,and accessories,which is due mostly to the increase in home working,remote learning,and online entertainment consumption.However,demand for such devices contracted in 2022,which was not only as a result o
59、f the hangover from pandemic lockdowns when consumers loaded up on such products,but also because these devices tend to be more discretionary,inflationary-sensitive purchases.Despite countries finally starting to emerge from the pandemic,and as the industry gradually witnesses supply chains,consumer
60、 confidence,and demand slowly return to some level of normalcy,the highly challenging economic climate,geopolitical volatility,and inflationary pressures have conspired to outweigh any growth potential,tempering device demand,which is set to move well into 2023.Indeed,current market uncertainties ar
61、e becoming a major impediment to the development of the device ecosystem and vendor landscape in some countries and sectors,potentially facing a much longer road back to economic recovery so that conventions and behaviors in the mobile devices ecosystem will inevitably be severely challenged in the
62、longer term.895G DEVIC ES,SMARTPHONES,&WEARABLESIndustrys Move to 5G Will Not Boost Penetration of the Connected Laptop Market YetFor a long time,the devices industry has been eager to develop always-on mobile connected notebooks to enable users to enjoy broadband experiences on the move.However,the
63、 market has witnessed a series of false dawns as OEMs efforts to achieve this objective have had little success,even now with the prospect of adding 5G,which is due to a number of technical and business challenges.Chief among these is making cellular modems central to the device reference design,whi
64、ch has,so far,been considered as just an add-on feature by notebook OEMs,meaning that performance and battery life are not necessarily optimized.For the convergence of mobile and notebooks industries to happen,they will both have to position 5G connectivity as a central feature in the design of 5G n
65、otebooks and Personal Computers(PCs),with a focus on long battery life,thin and light designs,and always-on,always connected experiences.Partnerships,such as the one between Intel and MediaTek,could be crucial to finding success and delivering enhanced,next-generation mobile compute experiences.More
66、over,with Apple moving to Arm-based chips for its notebooks,it could signal a significant step toward 5G integration and“always-on”connectivity in the companys notebooks,providing the impetus that the industry has craved to bolster demand in the sector.However,with Apple now not expected to announce
67、 the launch of its own 5G modem until 2025,the cellular connected laptop market may have to wait a little longer to see if its promise can be realized.5G Will Not Appear in Consumer Wearables,but Wait for 5GG RedCapWhile wearables can benefit from cellular connectivity,giving them greater freedom fr
68、om being tethered to smartphones and allowing wearers to use them on the go,5G wearables are still not expected to be seen in 2023.Component manufacturers have yet to announce any 5G chipsets for wearables and are not expected to do so any time soon,as the market potential is small with few device s
69、hipments compared to other mobile devices.For the time being,market demand for cellular connectivity in wearables can be served adequately by 4G,while there is added complexity of fitting the required 5G components in a small form factor.However,all is not yet lost in the sector because with the gra
70、dual evolution of 5G,The 3rd Generation Partnership Project(3GPP)will be introducing Reduced Capability(RedCap)New Radio(NR)under Release 17,Release 18,and beyond,which is termed a“light”version of the 5G standard.RedCap addresses devices with cost and energy-constrained use cases,aiming at products
71、 that are far less complex,cheaper,have good battery life,and require less bandwidth than current 5G NR products.Specifically,RedCap is aimed at specialized devices and consumer wearables,falling right within the sweet spot.However,with RedCap consumer products not likely to arrive until 2025,the ce
72、llular connected wearables market is unlikely to see any fundamental changes in the short term.10115G DEVIC ES,SMARTPHONES,&WEARABLESIncreased 5G Standalone Deployments in Asia-Pacific Expected to Enable More 5G-to-Business(5G2B)Applications in 20235G Network Slicing(NS)is considered a key technolog
73、y for 5G cellular connectivity for enterprise vertical applications.NS enables enterprises to run multiple logical networks on a commonly shared infrastructure spanning multiple domains(radio,transport,core,and edge),promoting flexibility and dedicated network slices customized for different enterpr
74、ise use cases.For example,in the context of a smart port,a low latency network slice can be provisioned for remote-control or autonomous operations,while a high bandwidth slice can be provisioned for High-Definition(HD)video surveillance applications.In the real world,NS has been successfully deploy
75、ed to enable various use cases,such as the remote control of Rubber Tire Gantries(RTGs)at the Ningbo-Zhoushan Smart Port in China and enabling smart healthcare applications at the West China Second University Hospital.5G NS is expected to ramp up over the next few years as more Communication Service
76、 Providers(CSPs)in Asia-Pacific begin to roll out their 5G SA networks,which is required to support commercial 5G NS services.For example,in October 2022,CSP Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd.announced a partnership with Ericsson to roll out its 5G SA network in India.Australian CSP Optus also announced tha
77、t it had launched its 5G SA network that will support 5G NS among other capabilities in August 2022,while Singaporean CSP Singtel announced that it had reached more than 95%of nationwide coverage for its 5G SA network in July 2022.ABI Research expects there to be a large opportunity for 5G2B growth
78、in the Asia-Pacific region,with 5G NS revenue forecast to grow from US$151 million in 2022 to US$12.6 billion in 2028(a CAGR of 109%).5G Chipsets Will Start to Deliver on Promised Features for Industrial Use CasesThe industry has been waiting for vital 5G enterprise features like deterministic netwo
79、rking or Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communication(URLLC)since the first talks about 5G began back in 2019.The implementation of these features into chipsets and devices has taken its time.Despite all relevant standardization work having been completed in the Summer of 2020,these chipsets and devices
80、 have not yet appeared within the market.As even the last technology difficulties have been ironed out,ABI Research is convinced that the first industrial-grade devices compatible with 3GPPs Release 16 will emerge in the market in 3Q 2023.While ABI Research believes this will certainly change gears
81、when it comes to enterprise 5G,a much larger-scale rollout of devices and chipsets would be neededcurrently scheduled for 1Q 2024,which will further propel the adoption rate of 5G connectivity within enterprise verticals.Outdoor Use Cases Will Drive Private CellularWhat has started throughout 2022 a
82、lready will continue and become even more prominent in 2023.Old battle lines between Wi-Fi and,specifically,5G are reappearing,as the most tangible value proposition for enterprises seems to be the fact that,in comparison to Wi-Fi,private cellular(and 5G specifically)will be able to bring connectivi
83、ty to particularly large and remote coverage areas.A private cellular network will be able to connect these outdoor sites(e.g.,oil or gas fields,airfields of airports,or shipping ports)much more efficiently than other wireless connectivity technologies(e.g.,legacy Wi-Fi),which creates a tangible val
84、ue proposition for enterprise owners and managers.For indoor deployments,on the other hand,the value proposition will remain weaker,as other wireless connectivity or even fixed access technologies could be a cost-efficient alternative to cellular connectivitylet alone 5G.1213145 G MARK ETSPrivate 5G
85、 Will Not Take Off in 2023In line with critical enterprise 5G features(URLLC and Time-Sensitive Networking(TSN)only starting to appear in commercially available chipsets by the end of 2023,Release 16-capable industrial-grade devices will be available at scale by 1Q 2024.As only the large-scale avail
86、ability of Release 16-capable chipsets will drive down device costs(and ease the Private 5G value proposition),it is expected that 5G will begin to pick up only after the beginning of the next year.As a consequence of this delay,4G Long Term Evolution(LTE)will remain the dominant cellular connectivi
87、ty technology until at least 2027,when ABI Research forecasts the infliction point,i.e.,when 5G connectivity will contribute more to enterprise revenue.Legacy Telco Industry Actors Will Fail to Grasp Long Tail of Enterprise CellularWhile certain traditional telco infrastructure vendors celebrate a n
88、oteworthy performance for enterprise cellular,ABI Research believes they will fail to grasp the long-term enterprise opportunity as they remain trapped in their consumer market legacy.The consumer market is governed by a completely different sales process than the enterprise domain.While in the cons
89、umer domain,the relationship between infrastructure vendor and network operator is very one-directional at a single point in time(infrastructure vendor sells equipment to network operator),enterprises require a much more bi-directional,almost consultative approach,in which network infrastructure mig
90、ht also be consumed in an as-a-Service model(depending on the investment capabilities).New kids on the block,i.e.,Open Radio Access Network(Open RAN)vendors,hyperscalers,private network operators,or System Integrators(SIs),on the other hand,do not have this consumer market legacy and can,therefore,e
91、ngage in a much more consultative approach to meet enterprise requirements and realize their desired use cases.This agility,flexibility,and responsiveness will resonate well with enterprise verticals,especially if the private cellular market remains in its nascent stages.15165 G MARK ETSInvestment i
92、n Asia-Pacific RAN 5G Network Infrastructure Expected to Grow to US$130 Billion in 2023Investment in 5G Radio Access Network(RAN)infrastructure is by no means over.Countries across the Asia-Pacific region are at different stages of development.China,South Korea,Japan,and Singapore are the most advan
93、ced in terms of RAN coverage and capacity rollout,while other markets are catching up.ABI Research forecasts outdoor infrastructure equipment sales to exceed US$86 billion in 2023,including radios,small cells,and macro basebands.Furthermore,5G Massive Multiple Input,Multiple Output(mMIMO)shipment sa
94、les are set to increase to US$30 billion(see ABI Researchs Network Technology and Market Tracker market data(MD-NWMT-106).The determination to accelerate 5G deployment is also being felt in other areas.Network sharing and joint ventures between telcos are an established part of the European,North As
95、ian,and North American cellular landscape,but cell site tower sales and greater collaboration are expected to take place in South and Southeast Asia in the coming years.However,stakeholders need to get the economics right.Average Revenue per User(ARPU)in India is just US$33.59 per month.This has an
96、impact on the economics of leasing space at cell sites.Operators in India,for example,have been reluctant to adopt network sharing practices,despite policies being in place from the government and Telecom Regulatory Authority of India(TRAI).There is interest in Open RAN in Asia,but operators are sti
97、ll very much in a wait and see mode.Open RAN developments in Japan are leading in the region.In 2023,it is expected that Open RAN developments will pick up pace in Thailand,Singapore,and South Korea,given that Japanese CSPs NTT DOCOMO and Rakuten Mobile have established presences in these areas.ABI
98、Research forecasts the revenue in Open RAN small cell radio shipments to reach US$4 billion in Asia-Pacific.Commercial Rollout of 5G-Advanced Unlikely to Take Place in Asia-Pacific in 2023,Despite the Progress Made in 20225G-Advanced,underpinned by the 3GPPs Release 18,was ratified as of December 20
99、21.5G-Advanced has several innovative features,such as mMIMO upgrades,enhanced mobility,and integrated access backhaul with AI-and ML-driven frameworks.Operators in Asia are expected to step up and adopt 5G-Advanced,but adoption in 2023 is likely to be limited to trials and selective rollouts in Nor
100、theast Asian markets.5G rollout in Asia is still largely focused on the RAN dimension.5G-Advanced is likely to gain more substantial traction in 2024,with countries in Asia taking until 2025 to appropriately complete upgrades pertaining to RAN,Core,and cloud-based network functions of 5G that will a
101、llow for 5G-Advanced.Despite this,equipment spending for RAN and Core upgrades remain high for 2023.For instance,RAN Capital Expenditure(CAPEX)for eight countries in Asia-Pacific,including Australia,China,India,South Korea,Japan,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam,essentially remains steady at US$52 bill
102、ion between 2022 and 2023.Conversely,Core CAPEX for the same eight countries will increase to US$22 billion in 2023,up from US$20 billion in 2022.If executed seamlessly,the Asian market for 5G Advanced will accelerate the evolution to 6G by 2030.17185G&M OB ILE NETWORK I NFRASTRU CTU RETinyML Will R
103、each Wherever There Is Relevant Environmental Data to AnalyzeTinyML is most useful in environmental sensors,given the size requirements and compute capabilities.And there are many possible use cases to be had;consider any kind of sensorial data from the environment that can be attended to and there
104、is probably an ML model that can be applied to that data,with sound sensors as the most prominent in the market right now,with close to 50%share.Considering the very large number of potential use cases,however,it is very important that vendors concentrate on those applications that TinyML can,in fac
105、t,be useful for.Vendors will have to work out a clear value proposition prior to production,and given the physical constraints of the hardware in which TinyML models are embedded,software and hardware specifications of these models are closely intertwined,so they must be aligned carefully.In particu
106、lar,the software tools to optimize TinyML models must be optimized for the particular hardware systems in which they operate.But whatever is out there to measurepeople detection and counting,speech detection,object recognition,word spotting,what have youthere will be a TinyML model to turn valuable
107、data into action.Generative and Multimodal AI to Drive Next Phase of Cloud AI GrowthGenerative AI has taken a significant step in 2022.This is largely due to continual advancements on large language models(transformer)and text-to-image models(stable diffusion).Trained on large amounts of text and im
108、age data,generative AI models are multimodal in nature,capable of linking information from various sources,including image,text,and audio,and producing relevant content that closely resembles what a human creator can do.When deployed as cloud-based tools,these models will help augment creators in en
109、hancing product quality and accelerating time to market.No doubt,the industry will need to address several concerns around generative AI,including data and infrastructure security,copyright and distribution rights,ethics and accountability,user safety and privacy,and governance and supervision,but d
110、o expect lots of interest from enterprise software vendors and content creators.The content generated in online video,social networking,and gaming is expected to be a US$2 trillion dollar market by 2030.Clearly,the technology requires large amounts of AI computing power,which will fuel the deploymen
111、t of more AI data centers and servers.Public cloud companies will also continue to invest in creating generative AI models that have more explainability to meet regulatory requirements,and data governance and infrastructure security will continue to be upgraded as AI becomes more common and widely d
112、eployed.1920A I&MACHI NE LEARNI NGChatGPT Has a Long Way to Go Before It Can Revive Voice AssistantsAnd why not?Voice assistants like Amazon Alexa are being phased down and conversational chatbots like ChatGPT are proving quite dexterous at certain tasks and interactions.Indeed,Alexa is meant to off
113、er some voice interaction,follow orders,and connect to other smart appliances in the house,and it does so by employing only so-called weak versions of AI,so why not upgrade these assistants to be smart voice services?Unfortunately,large language models,such as ChatGPT,are effectively auto-complete t
114、ext machines that have been trained on large datasets of real human texts(and speech),so they do not actually“do stuff”in the worldthey spit out words,not actions,nor can they call up any other apps.Such language models are also rather unreliable and wild;they cannot only make mistakes and imagine f
115、acts and events,but they can also provide terrible advice and insult others,and no vendor will be willing to deploy such systems if there is any possibility of a lawsuit coming their way.Moreover,chatbots like ChatGPT may never be able to infer user intent exclusively from what users say;thus,turnin
116、g it into a product that can control ones home in a way that can be scaled to millions of homes is a long way off.No-Code AI Will Not Fully Democratize AIThe need for AI has grown,but companies with internal AI skill sets remain limited.AI technology suppliers have been hard at work in 2022 introduc
117、ing various no-code AI solutions with the goal of making AI development more accessible to broader groups of companies.Unfortunately,this will remain very challenging in 2023.First,small and medium-sized companies are still finding it difficult to compete with public cloud companies and large AI tec
118、hnology suppliers for AI talents.Second,AI adoption in many industries is subject to heavy scrutiny,especially in regulated industries,such as banking and finance,automotive,international logistics,and public safety.These industries require AI to have a high level of transparency and explainability,
119、so companies need to have the ability to develop AI solutions that can fulfill these requirements,while abiding to the specific rules and regulations.Finally,new AI use cases are emerging at a rapid pace,especially at the edge in end devices.Currently,no-code AI platforms excel in mature and standar
120、dized processes,such as invoicing,contract validation,visual inspection,and Optical Character Recognition(OCR),but still have difficulties supporting new and innovative AI use cases,such as Natural Language Processing(NLP)at the edge and industrial arm manipulation.AI engineers and scientists will n
121、eed to create,train,and optimize custom AI models.In conclusion,companies that are interested in AI must consider either investing in hiring AI talent or working with a third-party AI solution provider,instead of relying solely on no-code AI platforms for their AI applications.2122A I&MACHI NE LEARN
122、I NGAn Enterprise VR RenaissanceThe year 2022 saw companies looking toward Virtual Reality(VR)increasingly often.Training,far and away,was the leading use case both discussed and implemented.The year 2022 also saw the confirmation and/or release of a handful of notable enterprise VR devices to spice
123、 up the competitive environment,including the Meta Quest Pro,Lenovo VRX,and Pico 4 Enterprise.These devices all improve the visual experience with pancake optics,as well as enhance the camera passthrough experience.VR training offers infinite adjustment and repetition,which cannot be met with other
124、training methods.Academic studies universally show positive knowledge retention and recall impact with VR trainingalways moderate,sometimes substantial.There is also the remote/off-site element for VR training that shows similar value to remote assistance:cost and downtime reduction.Return on Invest
125、ment(ROI)remains the leading reason for adoption,perhaps as expected,but positive secondary benefits are seeing more attention as well.VR training and sustainability are intrinsically tied to ROI when it comes to Extended Reality(XR)devices,such as remote assistance saving travel costs and travel em
126、issions.Sustainability messaging varies in importance by regionEurope has been leading the sustainability charge,with XR a key element for many companies.Other regions still lead with ROI over sustainability,but the two are increasingly becoming level.Blurring the Lines between AR and VRABI Research
127、 takes a relatively straightforward approach to XR device classification to make quantitative data and forecasting succinct:devices with see-through displays(or glanceable displays)are AR,while devices that fully obscure user vision are VR.Passthrough VR devices are challenging that definition,thoug
128、h.This is most notable with the latest enterprise VR devices in the Meta Quest Pro,Lenovo VRX,and Pico 4 Enterprise:using high quality real time camera passthrough is increasingly common.These devices all improve the camera passthrough capabilities,and in some cases(Meta),the go to market seems to f
129、avor augmented/mixed reality messaging and usage over traditional VR.It is too early to say whether these devices will truly supplant Augmented Reality(AR)devices,as there are both benefits and drawbacks.On one hand,high-quality camera passthrough allows a single VR device to serve in both AR and VR
130、 capacities,while adding value to a pure VR use case.On the other hand,there are valid safety and usability concerns relying on cameras for environmental vision.It is likely that passthrough will remain mostly a VR value add,rather than an outright AR replacement for these reasons,but it is not a cl
131、ear differentiation any longer.2324A UGM EN T ED&V I RTU AL REALI TYA Competitive Consumer Smart Glasses Market Will Not HappenWhile VR will see a handful of notable releases and enterprise adoption,the consumer AR ecosystem still needs more time to develop.Apple and Google alone dictate when consum
132、er AR glasses will become desirable,with both companies targeting 2024(tentatively)for smart glasses.Competitors,of course,will both beat these companies to market and follow afterward,but none can offer the same sway and impact.Apple will hit the broader XR market first with its high-end VR device
133、in 2023,but that is a different device class than consumer smart glasses both in capability and price.That being said,the content ecosystem has been maturing and growing even without consumer Head-Mounted Displays(HMDs),which will allow these devices to support adoption quickly.The mobile device seg
134、ment has significant support from both Apple with iOS and Google with Android,and will certainly play a prominent role as host devices for any eventual consumer glasses.Efforts in creating development tools and ecosystems have been ongoing for years,and many features of mobile device AR can carry ov
135、er to smart glasses easily when that development environment is shared.25A UGM EN T ED&V I RTU AL REALI TYC IT IZ EN DI G I TAL I DENTI TYDigital ID Wallet Adoption Will Quicken as the Mobile Identity Market Continues to DevelopABI Research forecasts the Mobile Identity(mID)market to grow from 425 m
136、illion credentials in circulation globally in 2022 to more than 1 billion by 2027,as the significant transformation toward increasingly digitized identity systems continues.Recent developments surrounding the digital identity wallet form factor of mID,as a successor to existing mobile identity techn
137、ologies,largely play into this growing uptake.Merging the physical with the digital is becoming increasingly prevalent to provide solutions that can be used both online and for physical interactions.This is catered by the next generation of wallet-form mIDs,which are seeing increasing implementation
138、,enabling a greater user experience versus their more fragmented predecessors in streamlining and augmenting the security of verification processes,easing administration,and aligning with digitalization and remote online access across industries and in eGovernment.A call to encourage adoption,and wi
139、de usability through a range of public-private partnerships has been made by governments and the private sector,spurring mID uptake to the mutual benefit of all parties.Regulations and standards are being developed to enable secure and expanded applications of mIDs,notably the September 2023 Electro
140、nic Identification,Authentication and Trust Services(eIDAS)revision,where a European interoperable ID is soon to come and employ wallet technologies.The International Organization for Standardization(ISO)23220s expansion on ISO 18013 to extend mID regulation beyond drivers licenses to all credential
141、 types is indicative of progression toward such mobile forms of identity becoming a mainstay across a wide range of credential types to be ubiquitously used by citizens.Concerning digital wallets,other OEMs,including Samsung and Google,will soon join the fray alongside Apple in mobile drivers licens
142、e enablement(most notably in the United States),with other identity documents support and integration in development.OEMs wallets sit alongside traditional identity system integrators offerings,forming a competitive multi-wallet ecosystem with huge growth potential as more and more governments and a
143、dministrative regions embrace a mID C YB ER SECU RI TY APPLI CATI ONSPost-Quantum Cryptography Market Kicks OffIn July 2022,the U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)announced four post-quantum algorithms for standardization:CRYSTALS-Kyber,CRYSTALS-Dilithium,Flacon,and SPHINCS+.The
144、 official standards are expected to be released in 2023 to 2024.The cryptographic algorithm development process,and their enshrinement into standards,is a multi-year endeavor;and only the first step in their eventual integration into the digital world.They then need to be adapted to existing technol
145、ogy protocols,and tested in various settings and configurations.The NIST process has been ongoing since 2017,but is now reaching the final stages.Post-Quantum Cryptography(PQC)development and integration into industry solutions will largely leverage NIST,and eventually Internet Engineering Task Forc
146、e(IETF)standards,so NISTs announcement is a big deal.The progress of work in these fora will be a sign of technology maturity and the goal will be to present“plug and play”types of technologies for industry,which will make commercial integration and adoption easier.The NIST announcement provides the
147、 impetus for developing frameworks and timelines around which industry can start strategizing technology integration/migration,creating transition road maps,appointing responsible parties,and allocating dedicated budgets.Consequently,Research and Development(R&D)will intensify from PQC solution prov
148、iders,and productization has been kick-started with this announcement.In 2023,first movers and invested stakeholders(notably those companies helping to develop the standards)will intensify their activities and start educating industry on the need to start paying attention to PQC,and planning for the
149、 transition.This will be a long and involved effort no doubt,but one that will see some significant traction in Tap on Phone Payment Acceptance Will Benefit Both Users and BusinessesABI Research perceives the drive toward tap on phone payment as the next step in the wider trend championed by neo and
150、 challenger banks of eliminating barriers to entry in payment acceptance for businesses.This is simply achieved through easier and less expensive smart devices,and seamless onboarding processes and enrollment for the majority of businesses.The development and expansion toward tap on phone payment wi
151、ll bring benefits across the market,but particularly to a number of key areas described below.Emerging Economies:Smaller merchants occupy around 40%of the income for emerging economies,with only 10%of these merchants ready to accept digital payments as of 2022.The growth of tap on phone and prolifer
152、ation in local shops and merchants would prove to be the simplest way for such businesses to accept digital payments and tap into a significantly underrepresented market segment.A Backup Option:In the event that the primary Point of Sale(POS)system does not work,or it cannot be brought to a remote m
153、arket location,the tap on phone capability will provide a consistent backup and ensure there is no shortfall in the availability of taking such a payment.The Move to a Cashless Society:Tap on phone will provide a launchpad for economies that are seeking to move to a cashless society;a trend seen in
154、Europe and other developed economies like the Nordics.This will also prove useful in the event of regulatory enforcement for digital transactions,as happened in Denmark,where regulators announced they will require certain types of businesses to use a digital cash register,such as a POS terminal,for
155、transacting by 2024.Card-Not-Present Transactions:Tap on phone should see high uptake in businesses that operate primarily remotely,such as Internet-first retailers,but need to accept in-person payments on occasion.The Cold-Storage Wallet Market Will Not Grow Quickly in the European SpaceAs Europe i
156、s exploring stringent crypto regulation for self-custody devices,this has the potential to pose a risk to the cold wallet market.The European Union(EU)has,in 2022,proposed legislation that,if fully ratified by the European Parliament,would restrict Virtual Asset Service Providers(VASPs)from transact
157、ing with unhosted wallets without first confirming ownership via Know Your Customer(KYC),as well as requiring them to report all crypto transactions worth more than 1,000 to relevant anti-money laundering authorities.In this definition,the EU considers an unhosted wallet to be a non-custodial wallet
158、 managed entirely by an individual,including both cold wallets,such as Ledger,Trezor,and Arculus,as well as hot wallets,such as MetaMask.If this legislation is passed,then such devices and solutions would be prohibited within the EU space,and the only crypto wallets ratified to operate in the Europe
159、an space will be those that uphold KYC to regulatory-approved standards.ABI Research envisions this very much restricting the ability of solution providers and Decentralized Autonomous Organizations(DAOs)to operate within the EU over the next few years.Transactions between non-custodial wallets and
160、centralized exchanges would become far more expensive and obfuscated due to data collection requirements.Furthermore,innovation and new business in the wallet market will be stifled,with crypto companies with less capital having no option but to restrict transactions to self-hosted wallets or riskin
161、g not being able to verify unhosted counterparts,which may compromise the legality of their operations,severely impacting their market competitiveness.On the other hand,smaller market entrants may see compliance operational costs become too high,withdrawing from the market altogether and resulting i
162、n market consolidation and stagnation.2829DIGIT A L P AYMENT TECHNOLOG I ES Widely Talked about Telco-Hyperscaler Edge Partnerships Will Finally Show Progress with Widespread Network Edge DeploymentsHyperscaler-telco partnership agreements have emerged over the last couple of years as both of these
163、parties look to climb higher up the digital value chain.So far,AWS Wavelength(in partnership with various telcos)has led the way with deployments in Europe,Asia-Pacific,and North America,but 2023 will be the year that the rest of the market catches up.Google Cloud Platforms(GCP)acquisition of Mobile
164、dgeX(in early 2022)will have matured and be used as the foundation upon which to accelerate global deployment.Customer-led trends away from the public cloud toward localized deployments in line with data sovereignty will force hyperscalers to quickly diversify their service capabilities through smal
165、ler,localized,edge deployments.Further M&A Activities in a Fragmented SmartNIC and DPU Market as the Modern Data Center Evolves and Intelligent Architecture Takes Center StageThe SmartNIC and Data Processing Unit(DPU)ecosystem will further consolidate,as the buzz around intelligent architecture cont
166、inues to grow.Larger vendors will start to look at how they can provide an end-to-end full-cycle solution offering,acquiring smaller niche vendors that solve a workload-specific challenge in a specialized industry.Data center infrastructure providers,such as server,networking,or security vendors,mig
167、ht explore integrating intelligent accelerators into their data center solutions,offering a compelling value proposition to customers,encompassing core infrastructure,as well as hardware acceleration capabilities.Widespread Enterprise NaaS Deployment Will Not Come to Fruition as Financial Worries Ma
168、ke Executives Increasingly Risk AverseWidespread enterprise Network-as-a-Service(NaaS)deployment will still not happen,as its value proposition is unlikely to resonate with enterprises in a fiscally-constrained market.Enterprises remain skeptical about a consumption-based pricing model,as monthly bi
169、lls compound financial and operational risk.Additionally,the perceived higher Total Cost of Ownership(TCO)coupled with financial pressures to cut costs means that executives are unlikely to see through to NaaS potential operational value(technological refresh and accelerated“time-to-value”).Overcomi
170、ng enterprise financial skepticism requires CSPs to introduce innovative pricing strategies with effective cloud FinOps tools,as well as pursuing partnerships with SIs to ease vertical deployment uncertainty.Mass Commoditization of Intelligent Accelerators Will Not Happen Due to the High Entry Barri
171、er of Adoption for Enterprise OrganizationsThe current use of intelligent accelerators,such as Smart Network Interface Cards(SmartNICs),DPUs,and Infrastructure Processing Units(IPUs)revolves around large data centers,with cloud hyperscalers and CSPs having the most compelling benefits in deploying t
172、hese accelerators,designed to address new-generation workloads that create and consume large amounts of data.However,the high cost and specialized programming resource capabilities needed to deploy these accelerators are prohibiting enterprise-wide adoption.Although intelligent accelerator vendors a
173、re starting to focus on enterprises,efforts are still fragmented,with no clear go-to-market strategy for addressing this area of the market.This situation will persist and mass commoditization of SmartNICs,DPUs,and IPUs for the enterprise market is not expected to happen in 2023.30313233DIST R IB UT
174、ED&EDG E COMPU TI NGThe Mobile Robot Market Will Remain the Fastest Growing Segment in RoboticsMobile robots will keep expanding use cases to markets that are a bit underserved by robotics right now,such as agriculture,construction,and mining,and the ever increasing level of autonomy of robots will
175、be a testament to that.New technologies,such as teleoperation and 3D Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR)-based Simultaneous Location and Mapping(SLAM),will contribute to supervised and unsupervised autonomy in robots,making robots ever safer and more efficient.The largest application for mobile robot
176、s,in general,remains material handling within contained and structured environments.Mobile robots are increasingly being deployed outdoors,too,especially when equipped with 5G connectivity,and by the end of 2024,ABI Research forecasts that mobile robot shipments will reach 1 million,with revenue of
177、up to US$40 million by then.Proprietary Robotics Software to Be Replaced by Hardware-Agnostic Software PlatformsAs end users are constantly looking for more sophisticated robotics hardware to automate more workflows,they need to deploy different types of robots.Unfortunately,most,if not all,of these
178、 robots come from different vendors.At the moment,most robots are designed to operate as independent devices.The fragmented landscape of robots used in workflow automation makes managing them through a single software,such as a Warehouse Management System(WMS)or a common cloud platform a very compli
179、cated challenge.End users seek software platforms to facilitate large-scale rollouts through common development,rapid onboarding,orchestration,and maintenance.Hardware-agnostic robotics platforms aim to resolve this challenge by providing a single platform that can accommodate all robots.They also o
180、ffer motion planning templates,real-time simulation environments,integration of ML,and digital twin synchronization to all types of robots and components.With these developments,the maturing robotics software market will experience 17-fold growth in the next 10 years.Another important feature of the
181、se platforms is their compatibility and support for Robot Operating System(ROS)and ROS 2.ROS software packages have been widely adopted in the industry.Compatibility with ROS is critical for roboticists and application developers,as it minimizes time spent on redesign and reconfiguration,and ensures
182、 quicker time to market.3435I N D U ST R IA L,C OLLA B O RATI V E&COMMERCI AL ROBOTIC SI N D U ST R IA L,C OLLA B O RATI V E&COMMERCI AL ROBOTIC SGlobal Uncertainties Will Not Slow Down Robotics AdoptionThe adoption of robotics solutions is not slowing down,despite massive geopolitical and economic
183、headwinds.Industrial robot deployment in manufacturing has barely slowed down due to COVID-19 and is expected to continue to grow in 2023.The recent International Federation of Robotics(IFR)World Robotics report showed industrial robot installation reached an all-time high in 2021,increasing by 31%o
184、ver the previous year.The logistics industry is actively deploying fixed and mobile robotics automation to resolve supply chain constraints.Businesses continue to face labor shortages due to short-term(global pandemic)and long-term(silver tsunami)reasons.As enterprises are expected to be more nimble
185、 and responsive to consumer demands,while being sustainable and environmentally-friendly at the same time,robotics automation is the only way to resolve this conundrum.There Will Not Be a Single Solution for Autonomous Robotics NavigationCurrently,most indoor Autonomous Mobile Robots(AMRs)are deploy
186、ed using two approaches:infrastructure heavy and infrastructure free.The first approach(infrastructure heavy),predominantly adopted by Automated Guided Vehicles(AGVs),is QR code navigation.End users need to deploy QR codes or other fiducial markers across the operational site floor.AGVs will scan th
187、e markers to help them localize and identify the direction to their destination.Despite being relatively cost-efficient compared with other approaches,this navigation method requires greenfield deployment in a highly structured site.In comparison,the infrastructure-free approach relies on vision-/ca
188、mera-based SLAM or LiDAR-based SLAM in AMRs.Robots are equipped with Red,Green,Blue(RGB)and stereo cameras,proximity sensors,and Two-Dimensional(2D)and 3D LiDAR onboard to identify and analyze their surroundings,leading to high computational requirements for mapping,localization,and path planning.At
189、 the moment,the robotics industry is introducing new approaches that are considered infrastructure lite.For example,634AI deploys a camera system on the ceiling of the factory.The cameras capture and stream video to a central system that then acts as a control system by stitching all the videos toge
190、ther,guiding the robots.Opteran opts for mesh network-based swarm intelligence.Robots will exchange small packets of telemetry data and video streams with other robots within the same fleet constantly,allowing the entire swarm of robots to navigate based on a shared map that is localized,real-time,a
191、nd IN DUST RI AL CYBERSECU RI TY Increasing Government Regulation:Moderate Cybersecurity Demand GrowthGovernments around the world,especially in the United States,Europe,and Southeast Asia,will continue to push for more cybersecurity regulation.Instead of general policy proposals,the trend is for th
192、em to demand specific action to prevent harmful breaches to critical infrastructure.A good example is a recent U.S.Transportation Security Administration(TSA)security directive asking train operators to designate a 24/7 cybersecurity coordinator.While ABI Research expects that cybersecurity spending
193、 for Operational Technology(OT)and the IoT in critical infrastructure is expected to grow from US$10.7 billion in 2023 to US$21 billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 15%,2023 might display slower rates due to looming economic recession and tighter fiscal controls.Moderate levels of cybersecurity spending in
194、2023 are not due to the lack of understanding of threats,or the absence of determination to mitigate risks.The industrial sector increasingly acknowledges the importance of protecting OT from threats rising in Information Technology(IT)systems and is willing to address potential liabilities through
195、increased investments in cybersecurity.The grim macro trends of the global economy though will dampen these efforts as a cautious 2023 outlook points to uncertainty,inflation,and a slower economy.Given a powerful greenback and the comparative resilience of the U.S.economy compared with energy-deprav
196、ed Europe and uncertain COVID-19 policies in China,American companies are in a better position to maintain or increase cybersecurity spending.Wide-Scale Remote Control of ICSs Will Not OccurWide-scale remote control of Industrial Control Systems(ICSs),though possible,are still a far-fetched scenario
197、.Most incidents in the sector will still be malware attacks,phishing attacks to collect data,and ransomware attacks for financial gain.Although an attack leading to the control of physical assets is a nightmare scenario for the industrial sector,the probability is still comparatively low.Attempts ta
198、rgeting ICSs are usually led by state-supported actors or highly motivated hacktivist groups.This means the majority of criminal cybergangs will still prefer to devise attacks that lead to immediate financial gain instead of long-term damage to industrial processes.Even in the case of state-supporte
199、d attacks,Russias war against Ukraine reveals that Moscow still uses traditional missile strikes against energy ICSs,rather than cyberattacks.Contrary to analyst estimates,it seems the Russians are not as cyber advanced to be able to replace physical attacks with cyberattacks against critical infras
200、tructure.If a determined malicious actor,such as Russia,has difficulty controlling ICSs,other actors are likely facing even greater IN DUST R IA L&MANU FACTU RI NG MARK ETSDigital Transformation Will Remain Imperative for Industrial&ManufacturingMuch has been said and written about the extreme press
201、ures that Industrial&Manufacturing(I&M)firms continue to experience from rising costs of raw materials,energy,and labor;assuming they can secure supplies and recruit staff in sufficient numbers.Operationally,firms need to ensure their factories are run as sustainably as possible.In 2022,the financia
202、l community started using the acronym TINA for“There is No Alternative”in the context of investment decisions,and for I&M firms in 2023,there is no alternative to continuing their digital transformation programs.Traditional automakers and their suppliers face the existential threat from the transfer
203、 to Electric Vehicles(EVs)and the need for digital technologies to design new products and components,as well as adjust their production lines.Oil&gas firms will lean heavily on data analytics to maximize production yield and manufacturers of electronics will continue to look to AI-based quality ass
204、urance for consistent results.Producers of food&beverages need digital tools to secure ingredients,optimize production lines,and demonstrate their Environmental,Social,and Governance(ESG)credentials.While the acute pressure will continue in 2023,technology suppliers will need to focus on reducing th
205、e time required to deliver value to clients.Suppliers will need to corral stakeholders and clearly demonstrate how their solutions alleviate pressures and not get embroiled in endless Proofs of Concept(PoCs).The Industrial Metaverse Will Not Take Shape YetThe year 2023 will not be the one when I&M f
206、irms invest vast sums in the metaverse.Staff will not be creating avatars and solving challenges in virtual worlds.The economic climate does not lend itself to investments that lack a clear pathway to value,such as virtual worlds.I&M firms will be investing in tools that build a digital thread that
207、provide feedback loops between designers,engineers,and manufacturing teams.In addition,there will continue to be investments in digital twins that mirror machines,production lines,and facilities,as firms look to optimize their operations.However,spending time working in the metaverse will be for ano
208、ther year.Indeed,paper record keeping remains a common practice in the pharmaceutical I NDUST R IA L&M ANU FACTU RI NG TECHNOLOG I ESNew Value Metrics Will Come to the ForeBig ROI projects with undefined or lengthy periods of return simply do not cut it in the current macroeconomic environment.Manuf
209、acturers need to improve or maintain the current order of business through quick wins that solve immediate challenges and pain points,and suppliers want to ensure they are delivering that same kind of value to the customer.Software and as-a-Service-centric business models naturally reflect this orie
210、ntation due to their ability to grow or contract with customer and market demand.However,sales teams and implementation partners accustomed to selling products versus solutions,must come around to this new reality.Ultimately,the customer needs to be protected against risk and ensure the actions take
211、n on any given day are the right ones.Projects that deliver fast Time-to-Value(TTV),such as lowering barriers to learning or onboarding a new task,or alleviating in-person travel via cloud-based collaboration tools are favorable compared to projects with a big ROI and long payback period.Instead,pri
212、oritize projects that deliver quick wins with incremental value that scales over time.Lights Out Manufacturing Will Not Happen at Any Meaningful ScaleWhen it comes to digital transformation,on a scale of 1 to 5,most manufacturers are at level 2 to 3;they have started to connect some wireless assets,
213、integrate disparate data sources,and see the value of digitally-enabled solutions,but have not fully scaled.Some outliers like Mercedes Factory 56 facility in Sindelfingen,Germany,and the new Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin stand out in terms of next-level integration and autonomy;however,most facilitie
214、s are brownfield environments that need to retrofit sensors and manage the machines they have relied on for years.At the same time,there is a new crop of solutions fueled by the cloud driving net-new capability including X-as-a-Service business models.Manufacturers of all sizes and industries are op
215、en to these solutions,but to varying degrees,and with varying rates of adoption.Level 5 lights out manufacturing at scale is still a way IOT CYBERSECU RI TYUnified IAM for the IoT Will Not MaterializeIn their rush to digitally transform,organizations are expanding into IoT and migrating to the cloud
216、,but their Identity and Access Management(IAM)strategies are falling to the wayside.Most are facing a significant crisis in managing machine identities,much of it due to the fact that they are jumping the gun on deployment without a solid IAM strategy in place.The issue is that many are trying to ex
217、tend their existing IAM and Public Key Infrastructure(PKI)to the IoT,without understanding the constraints and dynamics of managing such solutions for machines(and especially fleets of machines).Visibility,scalability,and configurability are critical issues,and will unfortunately not be resolved in
218、2023.Despite the emergence of pertinent and highly capable machine identity and adapted PKI solutions,the IoT landscape is still very much fragmented and users are not well aware of these new market solutions.Key to solving these issues is security standardization on one end(and efforts like Matter
219、in the smart home are strides forward in that sense),but also security education on the other from IAM vendors.PKI technologies are great enablers of IoT IAM,but getting that message across in a highly-fragmented and divergent ecosystem is no easy feat and will take some IOT H ARDWARE&DEV I CESCellu
220、lar Smart Labels Will Not Reach Massive VolumesSince the announcement of Bayers smart cellular label initiative in 2020,there has been intense excitement about how smart labels will grow the market.In the intervening 2 years,however,little in the way of commercial milestones has happened.Smart label
221、s are certainly expanding at a rapid rate in the Bluetooth world,and a large number of products are coming to market and starting to explore use cases in the proprietary Low-Power Wide Area Network(LPWAN)world,but this has not been the case with cellular LPWAN smart labels.A number of technical issu
222、es and commercialization issues have held the market back so far,and will continue to do so in 2023.In the coming year,new products and initiatives in the cellular LPWAN smart label market will be announced,and companies currently leading the market will launch their products commercially,but this w
223、ill be more in the form of PoCs in the coming year,rather than full-blown commercial deployment.ABI Research expects cellular LPWAN smart labels in the medium term to hugely expand use case opportunities and contribute to Massive IoT,but this will not happen in the coming IOT MARK ETSSupply Chain Da
224、ta Aggregator Companies Will Be AcquiredWithin the IoT market,2022 has been the year of software.Data aggregators like project44,FourKites,Shippeo,and Overhaul have helped make supply chain visibility a reality in the past 2 to 3 years,leveraging both IoT and non-IoT data sources to help enterprises
225、 see,understand,and act within their supply chains.While the ability to aggregate data and generate signals is valuable,the greatest value from supply chain data aggregators comes when these capabilities are paired with the execution capabilities of enterprise systems,such as Enterprise Resource Pla
226、nning(ERP),Transportation Management System(TMS),Warehouse Management System(WMS),and supply chain control tower solutions.Companies already strong in software,such as TMSs,fleet management providers,or control towers,are increasingly looking to diversify the pool of data from which they can draw in
227、 order to optimize every facet of their customers supply chains and build out a comprehensive supply chain digital twin.Large companies strong on the supply chain hardware front are equally interested in moving up the stack and offering more actionable intelligence to their customers.As a result,man
228、y of these software and hardware vendors are thinking very hard about making the leap with large acquisitions.The year 2023 will be the one when software becomes not a value-added differentiator,but a critical component of any vendor currently active in the IoT hardware market:this will be achieved
229、partly with in-house building,and partly with acquisitions of large and small software specialists.2023 Will Be a Bumper Year for Energy Harvesting StartupsEnergy and batteries for the IoT will continue to be a major topic for 2023,and will grow to be a more central consideration for IoT designers.F
230、rom an Original Device Manufacturer(ODM)and technology solution provider perspective,energy harvesting allows the possibility of lower-cost devices and longer-life solutions,creating a more favorable ROI for assets requiring long-term connectivity.For adopters,sustainability pressures and overcoming
231、 IoT device maintenance problems make this technology an attractive proposition.In the past 3 years,energy harvesting companies for the IoT have started to proliferate.During this time,these companies have all tended to be engineering experiments;however,many are reaching a stage when products are b
232、eing commercialized at scale.In 2022,around US$110 million was invested in energy harvesting startups.In 2023,this number will continue to grow with ever larger funding rounds,helping to scale the technologies and popularize the concepts of Massive IoT and Ambient IoT.In addition,as the technology a
233、pproaches and production processes mature,acquisitions of energy harvesting companies by semiconductor manufacturers are to be expected in the 2023 to 2024 time period.Printed Electronics Will Not Reach Mass Market.YetOne of the most interesting areas of growth for the IoT will come from printed ele
234、ctronic designs.There are multiple components of this:using conductive inks,metal etching,or Laser-Direct Structuring(LDS)for electronic circuit designs,or developments in the printed batteries world.Each of these will revolutionize what is possible from the IoT,enabling no-touch IoT embedded on var
235、ious types of assets,such as envelopes or packages,at the production line and at massive volumes.Many companies are currently working on developing technology and prototypes,and some initial partnerships between OEMs/ODMs and printing companies have started to be announced.Printed IoT will require t
236、raditional printing companies(e.g.,vendors selling Near Field Communication(NFC)or Radio Frequency Identification(RFID)label/tag printers or tags)to expand their vision beyond their existing portfolios,and to modify how they go to market with customers at the production line and facility level.These
237、 vendors are a crucial lynchpin to enabling printed electronics on a massive level,and to helping shippers,logistics providers,and packaging providers realize new opportunities enabled by more highly connected products.The market is still in its infancy,and 2023 will not be the year when the industr
238、y is transformed;however,2022 has given us some of the first glimpses into what new printing technologies could bring to the IoT,and as the market matures in the coming years,technology vendors and adopters should start assessing considering what position they want to LOC A T ION TECHNOLOG I ESBluet
239、ooth Positioning Will Solidify Its Place as a High Accuracy SolutionAs the Real-Time Location System(RTLS)market has worked itself out,widely applicable positioning solutions have been leveraging Wi-Fi and Bluetooth for cheap hardware,widely compatible infrastructure,and a wide vendor ecosystem.In t
240、he high accuracy space,however,high accuracy solutions will leverage Ultra-Wideband(UWB)more often to provide sub-meter-level accuracy in more difficult multipath conditions.While high accuracy Bluetooth Low Energy(BLE)Angle of Arrival(AoA)location systems have been available from vendors like Quupp
241、a,the addition of AoA positioning to the Bluetooth 5.1 specification in 2019 led to a wave of commoditized solutions at a much lower price point than what was previously available(e.g.,from u-blox,Silabs,Minew,and MOKOSmart).ABI Research expects that,in 2023,the Bluetooth RTLS market will be worth U
242、S$1.7 billion.Hybrid Positioning Systems Will Bring Improved Visibility and Location ServicesRobust location services need to provide reliable and accurate positioning across a range of environments.Effective location coverage will often include scenarios where people or assets will want to position
243、 themselves both indoors and outdoors or within noisy multipath environments,such as urban canyons.To address this location,solutions are increasingly leveraging multiple technologies,such as combining a Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)and BLE for indoor and outdoor coverage,using multiple R
244、TLS technologies,such as BLE and UWB,for their individual performance benefits,or multiple implementations of the same technology,i.e.,Bluetooth proximity beacons and precise Bluetooth AoA.These solutions can have the best of both worlds,compounding the individual advantages of technologies for cove
245、rage and efficiencies not achievable by single-technology solutions.Hybrid systems will lead the way for new verticalized location use cases,such as navigating over campuses or end-to-end supply chain visibility.For example,hybrid tracking for the IoT and logistics allows for visibility both when in
246、-transit and when at a distribution center.Consumers can navigate seamlessly during journeys,while ignoring the traditional limitations of GNSS in building and urban environments,and enterprises are able to introduce localized,high-precision infrastructure where necessary on top of building-wide RTL
247、S.Efforts by wireless infrastructure providers,such as Cisco,Aruba,Juniper,and Extreme Networks,alongside device and technology vendors have led to a more open ecosystem able to support these hybrid LOC A T ION TECHNOLOG I ESThe Geolocation Markets Will Not Shift away from GNSS Just YetThe efforts o
248、f a wide ecosystem of solution providers have meant that GNSS is no longer the only viable wide-area and outdoor location solution on the market.However,as the market evolves and despite its shortcomings,GNSS will retain a tight grip on market share.With IoT use cases,such as asset tracking and cons
249、umer tracking for wearables and smart tags,expected to be the largest drivers for increased device shipment volumes,LPWAN positioning,software and cloud-based solutions,5G positioning,and Low Earth Orbit(LEO)satellite positioning,among others,all provide potential benefits in comparison to GNSS.This
250、 can include improved power efficiency,consolidation on communications and location for reduced complexity,or improved signal security through validation.While these additional technologies bring promise,ABI Research expects that the majority of the market will stick to GNSS for the time being.Once
251、matured,many of the alternative solutions will bring the same level of reliability and coverage as GNSS,but currently,LPWAN positioning is struggling with accuracy and reliability,acquisitions of key cloud-based location companies,such as Polte and Nestwave,have disrupted the industry,and 5G positio
252、ning is not ready for mass market without improvements included in the 5G pipeline in 5G-Advanced.Meanwhile,GNSS chipset vendors and the global GNSS community continue to provide incremental improvements to their solutions through faster acquisition of location data and reduced chipset footprint.The
253、 satellite space for GNSS is also expanding,with increasing availability of additional positioning signals,such as L5,and the expansion of regional augmentations,such as Indias NavIC and Japans QZSS.Products from Broadcom and Sony both support dual-frequency GNSS at under 10 Milliwatts(mW)of continu
254、ous power,but also increased accuracy may be the difference maker for future high-volume device shipments.In a global climate of financial instability and where reliable location has proven to be more crucial than ever,many vendors will continue to lean on GNSS.ABI Research expects that,in 2023,more
255、 than 2 billion GNSS chipsets will M ET A VER SE MARK ETS&TECHNOLOG I ESFocus Will Shift From Long-Term Visions to the Building Blocks and DetailsFor all the hype the metaverse generated in early 2022,2023 will be a year focused on the details as opposed to speculation.This change will,at least part
256、ially,result from the crypto crash,which deflated some grandiose near-term expectations for the metaverse.Thankfully,focusing attention on the here and now will help legitimize the metaverse and lay the groundwork to build toward this future.Many companies that explored new metaverse opportunities,s
257、uch as enlisting immersive collaboration and communications or beginning digital twin initiatives,will build upon these early deployments and trials.3D content generation will also see increasing attention in 2023 with new and expanding toolsets designed to bring 3D into more workflows to reduce cos
258、ts(e.g.,virtual productions),improve efficiencies(e.g.,reduce prototyping and prep work),and break into new opportunities.While the number of companies taking the plunge into the next phases of their metaverse ambitions may be limited,the metaverse will see continued organic growth.2023 Will See Met
259、averse Monetization Efforts on the Consumer Side Ramp UpCompanies will begin monetizing platforms and services or try new business models to extract additional revenue from their users.However,users still require a period of acclimation and a change to expectations.Thus,we dont expect these monetiza
260、tion efforts to reach key milestones or serve as inflection points for areas like platform-independent ownership of digital goods and assets.Instead,2023 monetization efforts will focus on expanding sales of virtual items within platforms and advertising,a key business model that remains contentious
261、 among some early adopters.2023 will be the year that these barriers start to break down.Most Pressing Issues About the Future Metaverse Will Not be Resolved in 2023The focus on foundational elements of the metaverse means that these key issues will not get resolved in 2023.What is the role of Web3
262、in the metaverse?The metaverses Web3 conundrum,fueled by the ongoing crypto winter and controversies,will remain an area of debate beyond 2023,barring significant and unforeseen changes to policies and market directions.Questions around Web3 hinder virtual item ownership due to NFTs continued strong
263、 associations with cryptocurrencies.Without content ownership(platform interoperable assets that can be sold)the creator economies and 3D content generation will not reach their full potential.Fragmentation,especially within the consumer segment.Despite claims to the contrary,companies have yet to c
264、ommit nearly as many resources or efforts to bring interoperability and open platforms to consumer markets,especially compared to early enterprise and industrial metaverses where efforts around standards like Universal Scene Description(USD)project a better pathway forward.3D versus deeper levels of
265、 immersion.Most metaverse use cases have favored PCs and smartphones over XR,and this will remain the case as the industry awaits the arrival of mainstream-level smart glasses,which will not happen in 2023.VR will receive a lift in 2023 with new devices and upgrades.However,cost,form factor,and pref
266、erences will continue to push the larger base of metaverse users to traditional devices.Separations between more deeply immersive experiences(XR)and traditional 3D interfaces(2D displays)will continue to foster disparate opinions and views of the metaverse and its SA T ELLI TE TECHNOLOG I ESLEO Sate
267、llite Subscriptions and Capacity Will Continue to IncreaseLow Earth Orbit(LEO)will continue to see significant growth and deployment of constellations from the communications sector.The largest existing constellation with more than 3,500 satellites in orbit,Starlink,has received approval to launch a
268、nother 7,500 Gen2 satellites before the decade is out.With around 3 to 4 launches made every month in 2022,and deployments of about 50 satellites per launch,we can expect at least 1,800 to 2,400 new LEO satellites coming online next year.Alongside this,while the United States is the global leader in
269、 satellite launches,we can expect to see more deployments from China as they aim to deploy the LEO global broadband mega constellations,Guowang(GW-A59 and GW-2)and Yinhe,that would bring online around 14,000 satellites.To reflect these developments,ABI Research forecasts that subscribers using LEO s
270、atellite services will reach 2.4 million in 2023 and the global number of LEO satellites approved for deployment will reach more than 30,000 by the end of the decade(as per currently planned constellation deployments).Satellite-to-Cell Services Will Not See Wide-Scale AdoptionYetThe emerging satelli
271、te-to-cell service segment is picking up momentum as players like Apple,Huawei,SpaceX,Globalstar,AST Space Mobile,and Lynk are accelerating the launch of services.Starlinks recent approval to launch 7,500 Gen2 satellites in LEO(525,530,and 535 Kilometers(km)from Earths surface),which is in addition
272、to its currently approved 4,425 Gen1 LEO satellites(which operate at 1200 km),will unlock satellite-to-cell service capabilities via 1,910-1,915 Megahertz(MHz)and 1,990-1,995 MHz bands per SpaceXs most recent Federal Communication Commission(FCC)filing.Critically,Gen2 direct-to-cell functionality is
273、 still pending FCC approval and full deployment of the hosted payload,with continuous coverage of the Earth within+58 to-58 degrees,will not occur until mid-2024.This comes hot on the heels of Apples recent communication terminal patent acquisition that aims to connect Apple devices with satellites
274、via IEEE bands Ka,Ku,K,V,W,X,C,ISO Q,and other desired bands to unlock media,voice,and Internet data services.In its current form,Apple has only recently launched satellite emergency SOS and location tracking services with Globalstar to hold over consumers for the next 2 years.Alongside this,satelli
275、te operators Lynk and AST Space Mobile are looking to launch or begin the process of launching services at the beginning of 2023.In its current stage,satellite-to-cell services are available for specialized applications,but show upside potential in the years to come,with 2023 and likely 2024 being u
276、sed to prime consumers interest.In this respect,ABI Research anticipates that the wider Non-Terrestrial Network-Mobile(NTN-Mobile)service segment,which includes the satellite-to-cell segment,will reach 6.8 million connections by SM A R T HOMES&BU I LDI NG SSmart Home Will Have to Pay Its WayThere wi
277、ll be a growing drive from vendors and consumers alike for the smart home to pay its way.Scaling back smart home voice control teams at both Amazon and Google toward the end of 2022,in part,reflects a new emphasis on revenue streams,over underwriting development and devices for potential exploitatio
278、n further out.Samsung recently expanded its summer of 2022 launch of its SmartThings Energy service,an application supporting whole home and individual device energy monitoring,to support partnerships with real-time energy monitoring management and energy switching players.The end of 2022 also saw V
279、ivint,a major U.S.smart home player based around subscription monitored security provision,set to be acquired by Texas-based utility NRG Energy,as the latter sees the ability to leverage smart homes among its customer bases and beyond.On the consumer side,energy management is an application that may
280、 support greater investment in smart home adoption.The ability to monitor and reduce energy spending is of increasing value,and smart home abilities to enable that will help consumers see an ROI in smart home capabilities over and above the convenience,with technical curiosity having led much of the
281、ir engagement,so far.Smart Home Will Not Stop Its Strong GrowthPressure on consumer spending and shifting drivers for OEM and service provider smart home engagement will not stop strong smart home growth.Tighter reins on smart home investment may be coming,but that will arrive at a time when the sma
282、rt home has already won broad awareness and acceptance.For those consumers,OEMs,and service providers still on the sidelines,the publication of the first Matter specification in October 2022 will remove key hurdles to engagement.The smart home had long required vendors to decide on and select from a
283、 range connectivity options,each with varying potential to connect to specific potential partners and target audiences.In addition,with no interoperability between leading ecosystems,vendors had to develop products meeting the requirements of eachraising the cost of developing smart home products an
284、d limiting the addressable market potential.Matter certification means application interoperability across ecosystems and a clear delineation of Thread,rather than Zigbee or Z-Wave or even Bluetooth for low-power device connectivity.It also has wide industry backing.By the start of December,Matter h
285、ad already certified more that 225 smart home devices from dozens of players with 300 more already in the certification process.With additional device and application support planned by Matter in 2023,the smart home will continue to include more in-home device types and services drawing in evermore
286、players and SM A R T M OBI LI TY&AU TOMOTI V E2023 Will See Widespread Adoption of Location-Enriched MobilityDigital maps have long been adopted in automotive infotainment systems for delivery navigation and route guidance functions,but are set to enrich a wider range of automotive domains from 2023
287、 and beyond.In particular,the active safety and Electric Vehicle(EV)powertrain domains will increasingly rely on accurate and up-to-date map layers to deliver on future applications,such as Intelligent Speed Assistance(ISA)and range optimization.In the active safety domain,a combination of the Europ
288、ean General Safety Regulation(GSR)2 mandate and the updated European New Car Assessment Programme(EuroNCAP)2023 protocols will see millions more vehicles relying on digital maps to augment perception,and deliver insights on road and traffic events taking place beyond the horizon and around corners(e
289、.g.,Non-Line-of-Sight(NLOS).Other regional NCAP ratings protocols typically follow the pattern set by EuroNCAP,suggesting widespread adoption of location-enriched Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems(ADAS)over the coming years.Similarly,location intelligence will also play a key role in proliferating
290、EV powertrains,powering two key applications.Maps capturing attributions,such as road elevation and curvature,can play a key role in optimizing battery discharge and extending range,while live map layers capturing traffic,road events,and weather can provide highly accurate Estimated Time of Arrival(
291、ETA)determination.These two applications will both contribute toward increasing consumer confidence in EV powertrains,so that the vehicle will have the necessary range to satisfy mobility needs and that the indicated range can be relied upon.This broadening of the role that digital maps play will dr
292、ive new approaches to curation and dissemination,as the more mission-critical applications dictate a leap forward in attribution richness,accuracy,and time to reflect SM A R T M OBI LI TY&AU TOMOTI V E2023 Will Not Be the Year That Automakers Crack OTA UpdatesVehicles are becoming software defined a
293、t a faster rate than the automakers that ship them.This is because the software-defined car revolution is being driven by two factors.First,the enabling technologies that underpin the software-defined car revolution,including high headroom compute,secure and high-bandwidth networking,mature applicat
294、ion frameworks,etc.are largely being supplied by myriad Tier Twos from outside the traditional automotive supply chain,and not the automakers themselves.Second,there is a competitive pressure from new EV OEMs(most notably,Tesla)to deliver lifecycle management and new features throughout the vehicles
295、 lifetime.While the novel OEMs pioneering this approach in automotive are digitally-native,i.e.,software competence is at the core of their brand identity,legacy OEMs are instead trying to graft software divisions into mechanically-oriented organizations.As a result,established OEMs have been driven
296、 to buy into an industry revolution in which they are the passengers,rather than the drivers.All major OEMs now have an Over-the-Air(OTA)partner,capable of managing connections and organizing update campaigns,and some have already begun to leverage this channel to maintain and patch software errors
297、and minimize the need for physical recalls.However,OEM experimentation with feature updates(outside the EV newcomers)have,thus far,proved unsuccessful.Backlash against BMWs heated seats and Mercedes-Benzs acceleration subscription business models paint a picture of an industry unsure of how to lever
298、age the powerful new tool at their disposal.Using software-defined architectures to throttle the vehicles hardware capabilities,and paid subscriptions to restore these capabilities is not a sustainable path to monetizing the installed base.Shipping vehicles with excess hardware capacity,and developi
299、ng new,innovative software-based features to be deployed after the vehicle has shipped is the only viable way to encourage consumer engagement with the OTA trend.While this will require OEMs to expand their software competence and rapidly onboard additional software engineers,the most important barr
300、ier to overcome is a 180-degree shift in philosophy.The strategy of established OEMs for decades has been to reserve new features for new models,and leveraging these new features as differentiators to drive shipments of these new models.The industry must first pivot to a strategy of developing new f
301、eatures for existing models if it is serious about extracting subscription Sustainable Cities to Gain Momentum in 2023After more than a decade of half-hearted approaches,sustainable urban infrastructure is picking up momentum fast,as could be observed at the Smart Cities Expo World Congress 2022.The
302、 smart cities focus is rapidly shifting from connectivity,safety and security,smart spaces,and smart mobility to all aspects of sustainability,as the single most important challenge cities will face in the next few years will be related to the impact of climate change,including flooding and heat isl
303、ands.This translates into a wide range of initiatives,projects,and investment programs,centered around decarbonization,net-zero cities,urban circularity,green infrastructure and vertical farming,smart energy,and zero emissions mobility and transportation.From a technology perspective,key sustainabil
304、ity solutions include commercial buildings management software for optimizing energy efficiencies,battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and associated charging and fueling infrastructure,renewable energy generation and smart micro-grids,the use of digital twins for modeling energy consump
305、tion,planning of gray and green urban infrastructure,simulation of the impact of climate change,blockchain-enabled carbon credit market places,ambient IoT,and cross-vertical smart cities platforms.This represents nothing less than the ultimate convergence of all smart cities technologies,paradigms,a
306、nd approaches under one and the same unifying sustainability umbrella,harnessing all expertise and funding around a common and unique purpose and objective.In fact,sustainability approaches often have important secondary benefits related to increased resilience and cost savings,thereby helping to ad
307、dress the wider urban prerogatives.Cities,countries,industry associations,and many other organizations around the world are setting increasingly ambitious targets ranging from phasing out all non-zero emission vehicles by 2035 to reaching full carbon neutrality by 2050.For technology vendors,this of
308、fers huge potential to develop and monetize clean technology,provided they squarely start embracing urban sustainability as the guiding commercial principle today.Smart Cities Will Remain a Low Priority Segment for Technology Vendors in 2023Vendors across the technology ecosystem are optimizing thei
309、r commercial strategies around the most financially attractive and easily addressable markets and verticals.Over the past years,we have seen smart cities,as well as the government market,more generally,being replaced by smart manufacturing,supply chain and logistics,and,to a lesser extent,energy as
310、top priority segments.Underlying reasons and motivations include lack of available(public)funding,fragmented purchasing ecosystems,long decision cycles,and a lack of awareness about the benefits of smart urban infrastructure,resulting in very challenging sales processes with cities and governments.H
311、owever,if vendors just focus on segments representing low-hanging fruit,that might endanger their long-term prospects.There are good reasons to keep smart cities on their radar,including:Cities are starting to explore new types of financing to fund technology deployments,ranging from city/municipal
312、bonds to sensor data monetization(North Texas Innovation Alliance).It is critical for vendors to leverage their technology solutions across as many segments as possible to reach scale and profitability;for example,digital twins have now started to be deployed across almost all verticals,including sm
313、art cities,where they will become a critical tool for managing urban assets and infrastructure.The amount of technology-related regulation and legislation on both a local and national level will increasingly dictate the agendas of technology vendors.Smart cities represent aggregation points of techn
314、ology solutions across all verticals.In conclusion,while the smart cities segment will remain a challenging segment for technology vendors,it would be unwise to walk away from it.6162SM A R T URBAN I NFRASTRU CTU REGrowth in End-to-End Visibility and Reporting Solutions to Comply with RegulationsTra
315、ck and trace regulations around the world are growing and becoming increasingly stringent,particularly within high-risk industries,such as food and pharmaceuticals.Authorities are not only seeking deeper visibility,tracing from the raw material suppliers all the way to the consumer,but reporting nee
316、ds to be accurate and continuously available.Notable regulations coming into effect in 2023 include the Food Safety Modernization Act(FSMA)Rule 204 that focuses on additional traceability around foods,such as animal products,seafood,and fresh produce.Food companies will need to be fully compliant by
317、 2025,so it is expected that a high degree of digital transformation spending over the next 2 years will be focused on both traceability and food condition monitoring.And the second is the Drug Supply Chain Security Act(DSCSA)requiring interoperable,electronic tracing of certain prescription drugs d
318、own to the package level.While enacted in 2013,the regulation comes into full effect in November.Internet-of-Things(IoT)-enabled traceability and supply chain visibility platforms will see continued adoption at all levels,enabling companies to ensure both compliance and operational competitiveness.M
319、ore Fleet Electrification The demand for EVs has been growing at an unprecedented rate over the last few years.Were not only seeing this trend in consumer vehicles,but also in commercial fleets.Many large commercial fleets have started investing heavily and are raising considerations toward full fle
320、et electrification in the near future.Although federal incentives have been a primary driver,factors such as lower operational costs,simplified maintenance,and enhanced performance are other prominent advantages EVs have over regular Internal Combustion Engine(ICE)vehicles.IKEA US has converted all
321、of its last-mile fleet in the state of New York to EVs.Amazon,meanwhile,is planning to invest more than 1 billion in EVs for its Europe fleet and has partnered with EV manufacturer Rivian in the United States.Dominos Pizza has said theyll be rolling out a fleet of 2023 Chevy Bolt EVs across the Unit
322、ed States in the coming months.Government mandates and regulatory incentives have been the key driver behind the growth in EV adoption.In the United States,the Biden administration recently announced US$2.8 billion in grants to boost the EV battery supply chain.The administration also has set a goal
323、 to make EVs half of all new vehicles sold by 2030 and fully electrify all government fleets by then.Over in Europe,the EUs Green Trucking Directive calls for 50%toll discounts for EVs from 2023 and air pollution charges for gas vehicles from 2026.Regulations have been a key driver behind the growth
324、 in electrification and automotive manufacturers have acknowledged this.General Motors(GM)said it expects EV profits to be comparable to gas vehicles by 2025,years ahead of schedule.Meanwhile,sales of Fords EVs continue gaining momentum,up 102.6%Year-over-Year(YoY).Fords EV sales for the month of No
325、vember 2022 were higher than its gas vehicles.6364SUP P LY C H A IN MANAG EMENT&LOG I STI CSSUP P LY C H A IN MANAG EMENT&LOG I STI CSNo Relief from Labor ShortagesLabor shortages are continuing to be felt around the world and studies are forecasting a global worker shortage of around 85 million wor
326、kers by 2030.Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,labor numbers within warehousing and logistics have been hit particularly hard.In Europe,Heavy Goods Vehicles(HGV)driver shortages were up 41%in 2021 with up to 425,000 unfilled vacancies,and while some reports found that these unfilled driver jo
327、bs did reduce slightly in 2022,the improvement is expected to be temporary.In the United States,job openings in the warehouse and transportation industry hit 520,000 in June 2022 with only 315,000 filled.These vacancies have begun to shrink alongside what many believe to be signs of economic cooling
328、,but supply chain labor shortages are exhibiting a deeper shift.Aging populations,low wages,the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,political barriers to immigration,and wider changes to our way of working are presenting a bleak long-term forecast for labor availability to current operational
329、 processes.Such structural changes to the labor supply are changing the way companies view technology from a nice-to-have to a necessity,but this is only one side of the coin.With growing omnichannel activities and fulfillment automation initiatives,operations are having to quickly diversify and imp
330、lement new ways of working.To tackle both challenges simultaneously,companies will be focusing on scalable automation solutions,as well as optimizing the available labor they have through Collaborative Robots(cobots)and stronger management systems.COVID-19 and recent instability have accelerated a l
331、onger-term change in labor pools across the global supply chain,and companies are increasingly aware that long-term competitiveness relies predominantly on consistent,effective digital transformations.Accelerated Micro-Fulfillment Deployments to Optimize Last Mile Will Not HappenDuring the onset of
332、the pandemic,micro-fulfillment was expected to revolutionize order fulfillment and supply chains,in general,for retailers.Its safe to say this hasnt been the case and wont be until the near future.Micro-fulfillment is moving forward,but at a slower pace than previously forecast.Slowing e-commerce sa
333、les and difficulties for smaller retailers in achieving an ROI have been the two major factors behind this.Meanwhile,brick-and-mortar sales have been picking up.March 2022 was the first month since November 2013 to record a YoY drop in e-commerce sales,when they dropped by 3.3%from March 2021.Meanwhile,brick-and-mortar sales rose by 11.2%.Dicks Sporting Goods saw online sales fall 11%in its most r