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1、Trend Compendium 2050June 2023Six megatrends that will shape the world2The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 focuses on stable,long-term developments The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Institute(RBI),the think tank of Roland Berger.Our Trend C
2、ompendium 2050 describes the most important megatrends shaping the world between now and 2050 Our trend views are based on expert sources and assessments.Estimates reflect the normal case,i.e.a stable development of the global economy in the long term To incorporate todays uncertainties into strateg
3、ic planning,we recommend combining the megatrends of the Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 with the Roland Berger scenario planning approachIs it worth dealing with megatrends when globally impactful events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine are taking place?Of course!The coronavi
4、rus pandemic and the war in Ukraine have far-reaching consequences and deeply affected people,economies and politics but neither event has derailed the megatrends analyzed herein;such is the inherent nature of megatrends:climate change,societal aging,or technological innovations do not lose their mo
5、mentum,their direction or their importance.To cope with such challenges and to master resulting opportunities,our awareness and our understanding of megatrends is vital not least to develop sustainable answers205023 and covers six megatrends that shape the future development of our world to 20501Peo
6、ple&Society2Politics&Governance3Environment&Resources4Economics&Business5Technology&Innovation6Health&CarePopulationMigrationEducation&LaborValuesGlobal RisksGeopoliticsFuture of DemocracyClimate Change&PollutionBiodiversityResources&Raw MaterialsGlobal Trade&Value ChainsPower Shifts Energy Transfor
7、mationDebt ChallengeValue of InnovationFrontier TechnologiesHumans&MachinesGlobal Health ChallengesHealthcare of the FutureCaregiving4Megatrend 1People&Society55Beyond mere demographics,people and society are at the core of our thinking People are on the move,are eager to learn and rely on valuesSub
8、trends of megatrend People&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1Population2Migration People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.24Values3Education&Labor66Our world is aging.In 2050there will be more than 1.6billion pe
9、ople aged65+years(2023:808 million)and 3.2 million aged 100+Population trends toward 2050 point to a myriad of changes worldwide for regions as well as countries,their growth rates and age structuresStanding side by side,the predicted 9.7 billion strong population of 2050 would span the equator more
10、 than 240 times.However,average global population density will only rise to 74.5 people per sq km1)around a quarter of the population density of the United Kingdom today1)Calculation based on the Earths land area excluding AntarcticaSources:UN Population Division;UN Population Fund;UN:Roland BergerG
11、lobal population trends Selected facts and figuresIn 2050,1.7 billion more peoplewill inhabit our planet(2023:8.0 billion2050:9.7 billion)World populationgrowth is fueled bygrowth in lessdeveloped countries.Population in Sub-Saharan Africa will double from 2020 to 2050Despite global aging,huge diffe
12、rencesin the median age of countries persist in 2050:Niger:17.7 years vs.South Korea:56.7In April 2023,with a population of 1.43 bn,Indiaovertook China as the worlds most populous country.In 2050 India will have about 1.67 billion inhabitantsEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics
13、&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.277The population growth rate is decreasing due to lower fertility rates In 2050,the vast majority of the 9.7 billion will live in less developed regions 02100Evolution of world population 19
14、50-2100 bn2050:9.7 bn2023:8.0 bn87%13%27%56%17%32%68%Economic origin of inhabitantsAge of inhabitantsResidential area of inhabitants1)Global population characteristics 2050%18%43%40%Life expectancy at birth2100:10.35 bn1950:2.5 bn1)The definition of urban areas follows the definitions that are used
15、in each countrySources:UN Population Division;Roland Berger2086:10.43 bn People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2Less developed regionsDeveloped regions65+20-640-1980RuralUrban According to the UN medium variant prediction,the world popu-lation will grow at a slower pacebet
16、ween 2020 and 2050 compared to previous decades,reaching a population of 9.7 billion in 2050 The evolution of the world population is driven by two factors:the evolution of fertility rates and the evolution of life expectancy Global fertility rates are expected to decrease from 2.31 births per woman
17、 in 2023 to 2.15 births per woman in 2050.This lowers the rate of population growth Average life expectancy is expected to increase from 73.4 years in 2023 to 77.2 years in 2050,globally.This drives population growth,but cannot totally compensate for decreasing fertility rates In 2050,the majority o
18、f the global population will stem from less developed regions,resides in urban areas,is between 15 and 64 years old and has a life expectancy of more than 70 years Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources88Over the next three decades,Africas populati
19、on will increase by more than 1 billion Asia remains the worlds population giantPopulation by continent 2023 and 2050 and growth rates m,%Sources:UN Population Division;Roland BergerTop five countries per region by population 2050 m People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.21
20、,4434,7372023456627433782,4665,2907047494215820508,0099,687AsiaIndia 1,670China 1,313Pakistan 368Indonesia 317Bangladesh 203EuropeRussia 134Germany 79UK72France 66Italy 52LatAm/CaribbeanBrazil231Mexico 144Colombia 57Argentina 52Peru42Northern AmericaUSA 375Canada 46Papua N.Guinea 15OceaniaAustralia
21、32New Zealand 6AfricaNigeria 375D.R.Congo 215Egypt 160Tanzania 129Ethiopia 213AsiaAfricaNorthern AmericaLatAm/CarribeanOceaniaEurope+12%+71%+13%+11%+29%-5%Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&ResourcesSolomon Islands 1Fiji 1 Bermuda 1Greenland 1S.Pierre&Mi
22、quelon A low old-age potential support ratio can have severe consequences for countries where a large share of public expenditure is allocated,for example,to health,caregiving and social security,which is taken up by older members of society to a proportionally larger extent However,there are severa
23、l caveats:The old-age support ratio ignores the fact that people above the age of 65 are not necessarily dependent on support as a rising proportion is(still)in work or has access to other financial resources;also,by contrast,not all of those considered of working age are actually workingAll regions
24、 are aging with fewer people of working age having to support more older people Intercontinental differences remain significantAfrica AsiaEuropeNorthern AmericaLatin America and the Caribbean 43.438.442.247.331.939.831.040.418.823.9Oceania 32.738.2Median age years and old-age potential support ratio
25、 by region 2023 vs.2050 number of working-age people(20-64 years old)/number of people 65+years old3.32.33.06.33.113.29.34.33.01.86.03.0Sources:UN Population Division;Roland Berger20232050Median age:20232050Old-age potential support ratio:People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migrati
26、on1.2Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1010International net migration flows between regions are expected to be on a high level toward 2050 This reflects only one of many aspects of migration-11.7-45.722.6-5.235.84.062.5Cumulative net inter-reg
27、ional migration flows 2023-20501)m2.095.26.93.03.18.486.7Inter-regional(destinations)17.819.111.515.411.30.853.3Intra-regional205.4129.159.16.75.75.55.24.32.74.224.8Interregional and intraregional migrants(stock)20202)mMigrants within countries(IDPs3)stock)2021 m-62.5 According to the UN,internation
28、al migrants are defined as either living in a country other than their country of birth or in a country other than their country of citizenship The majority of international migrants(interregional and intraregional migrants)are not refugees or asylum seekers having left their home country due to con
29、flicts,persecution or similar,but are defined as migrating for economic,educational or other reasons In 2021 there have been 31.7 million international refugees and asylum seekers globally;69%came from just five countries:Syria,Venezuela,Afghanistan,South Sudan,and Myanmar IDPs are refugees who stay
30、 within their own country.2021,the majority of IDPs(53.2 million)fled conflicts and violence,the remaining 5.9 million fled disasters People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2OceaniaEuropeNorthernAmericaAsiaAfricaLatAm/CaribbeanOceaniaLatin America&the CaribbeanCentral&South
31、ern AsiaEastern&South-Eastern AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaNorthern Africa&Western AsiaEurope&Northern AmericaNigeriaEthiopiaYemenColombiaDem Rep.CongoAfghanistanSyriaOthersEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1)Interregional migration includes only migr
32、ation between regions;data are based on UN medium variant forecast2)Numbers of interregional migrants are for destination regions;intraregional migration includes only migration between countries within a region;3)IDPs:internally displaced peopleSources:UN Population Division;IOM;Internal Displaceme
33、nt Monitoring Centre/Norwegian Refugee Council;Roland Berger1111Without global action until 2050,up to 216 million internal climate migrants are forecast Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia will be affected the mostSources:World Bank;Roland Berger Global climate and environmental migration forecasts to 2050
34、 range widely,from 25 million to 1 billion people The majority of climate migrants will become internally displaced,i.e.they will be forced to move withintheir own country due to increasing climate change impacts such as rising sea levels,crop failure,water stress etc.In a pessimistic scenario(high
35、green-house gas emissions combined with unequal development pathways),the World Bank expects 216 million internal climate migrants across the six World Bank regions According to World Bank estimates,the global community could manage to lower the number of people forced to move due to climate change
36、by 60-80%if we manage to cut greenhouse gases,embed climate migration in development planning,and invest to improve our understanding of internal climate migration in the first placeInternal climate migrants in selected regions 2050 according to World Banks pessimistic scenario m86494019175Sub Sahar
37、an AfricaEast Asia and PacificSouth AsiaNorth AfricaLatin AmericaEastern Europe and Central Asia People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&ResourcesClimate migration is the human face of climate
38、changeWorld Bank1212Education is key to individual and national prosperity Globally,more and more people will have access to higher educationAverage number of years of education completed in 2020 related to GDP per capita PPP in 20201)years,USD 000 1)Number of years of education completed by people
39、aged 25+.PPP stands for purchasing power parity.GDP per capita PPP in current(2020)international DollarSources:Wittgenstein Centre;World Bank;Roland Berger5678904005060703010AlbaniaArgentinaAustraliaBrazilChinaColombiaFranceGermanyItalyIndiaCentral African Rep.USAIndonesiaIsraelJapanNorwa
40、yPakistanNigeriaRussiaTurkiyeUKCongo,D.R.WorldKoreaYears of education00020202040206020802100Post secondarySecondaryNo educationPrimary Our world will be inhabited by more and more educated people as the share of people with no education continues to decrease By 2050,only five c
41、ountries are predicted to have a share of non-educated people that is 20%:Burkina Faso,Ethiopia,Guinea,Mali,and Niger This rising level of educational attainment is a result of changing attitudes towards education,more public investment,and new methods,such as the opportunity to increasingly access
42、education onlineGDP per capitaHighest educational attainment of global adult population share in%People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1313The shortage of skilled workers poses a pro
43、blem for many labor markets One possible option is to attract skilled workers from developing economiesPotential net-inflows p.a.into the workforce in the respective year 2022-20501)m 2025 20303.02035 2040 2045 20500.00.51.01.52.02.50.91.32.61.30.11.03520302040 2045-10-50-9.8-0.51.5-0.2-0
44、.3-0.6ChinaJapan20222022IndonesiaMexicoEgyptUS204020352025 20302045 20500510153.817.03.65.94.23.9India2022PakistanNigeriaCountries with a negative/mixed net-inflow 2022-2050Countries with a positive net-inflow 3020252040 2045 2050-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.6-0.2-0.30.4-0.3-0.3-0.2Brazil I
45、n many advanced economies the youngest age groups of the baby boomers(born 1946-1964)a very large age cohort will exit the workforce in coming years During this period,the new cohort entering the workforce is much smaller,thus resulting in a negative net-inflow in these countries Because of the(now
46、abolished)one-child-policy,China,the worlds largest labor market,will also face a shrinking workforce from 2027 Countries with high fertility rates will have a positive net-inflow.Attracting skilled workers from these countries can be one option to counter the looming shortage of such workers in adv
47、anced economies but there are pros and cons:Pros:easing workforce shortages in advanced economies,attractive prospects for skilled workers from developing economies,further education and training of skilled workers in advanced economies(who can later apply these new skills if returning to their coun
48、try of origin),remittances supporting the welfare and prosperity in developing economies Cons:brain drain in developing economies,family separation,cost of attracting and integrating workers,language and cultural barriers Selected other measures to increase the workforce in advanced economies:increa
49、se womens participation,educate non-skilled people to enable them to enter the workforce,increase the retirement age,increase working times People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.22022South KoreaGermany1)The potential net-inflow is the difference between potential inflow(pe
50、ople aged 20 entering work force within the current year)and potential outflow(people aged 65,leaving the workforce in the current year)Sources:UN Population Division;Roland BergerEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources14People and values:According
51、to the signatories of the UN Declaration of Human Rights,everyone is entitled to the 30 rights and freedoms therein In reality,claiming these entitlements is mixed and fraught with setbacksSources:UN;UNCRC;UNICEF;Reporters without borders;Roland BergerUniversal Declaration of Human Rights 1948:Artic
52、le 2Human rights:Selection of significant developmentsEveryone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration,without distinction of any kind,such as race,color,sex,language,religion,political or other opinion,national or social origin,property,birth or other status.()Selec
53、ted rights and freedoms:Article 1:All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.()Article 3:Everyone has the right to life,liberty and security of person.Article 5:No one shall be subjected to torture or cruel,inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.I cant breathe:George Floyd
54、is brutally killed by police,sparking violent protests and social unrest1 in 10 children are subjected to child labor worldwide COVID-19 disrupted an otherwise encouraging downward trendA record number(533)of journalists were imprisoned at the end of 2022,while 65 are held hostage and 49 are missing
55、;57 have been killed in 2022Barack Obama becomes the first African-American president of the United States 140(now 196)countries ratify UN Convention on the Rights of the ChildUN action plan on the safety of journalists2202020202020s20202022268274069623842202820132022GoodDifficultSatisfac
56、tory Very seriousProblematicPress freedom:Journalists are facing an increasingly difficult reporting environmentNumber of countries,where the situation regarding the freedom of the press is People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealt
57、h&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1515The evolution of human freedom paints a mixed picture How will global values be shaped in the future?Sources:Cato Institute;Foresight Alliance;Roland BergerLess free the trajectory of global human freedom:Since 2008,the Human Freedom Index(based on a
58、 composite of 50%personal and 50%economic indicators)has decreased,with a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic,from 7.03 in 2019 to 6.81 in 2020 the lowest level of freedom of the past two decades.The index is rather widespread between 0 and 10,Switzerland has the highest value(8.94),Syria the
59、 lowest(3.30).There are 110 countries with a decreasing level of freedom and 31 countries with increased ratings.Personalfreedom indicators,in particular,declined markedlyHuman Freedom Index 2022 What to look out for toward 2050Through to 2050,the global consensus on values based on human rights and
60、 personal,civil and economic freedoms will shift alongside the global power shift.Changes in values and beliefs,in geopolitical power,socio-economic evolution,and technology denote what lies ahead Selected push-and-pull factors include:The tendency towards rivalrous multipolarity what does it mean f
61、or global values?If rising powers approach protecting human rights(also beyond their borders)and adjust their own self-determination policies or not Whether common efforts to solve global problems(climate change,biodiversity loss,UN Sustainable Development Goals,etc.)lead to a common recognition of
62、important human rights or not Whether emerging middle classes push for more rights(even if not full democracy)as historically has been the case or not How bottom-up technologies that enhance freedom evolve vis-a-vis top-down surveillance and information control If the Internet remains an unfettered
63、information conduit or not People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Values1.4Migration1.2No dataLess freedomMore freedomEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources1616Main sourcesUnited Nations(UN)Population Division:World Population Prospects 2022.
64、https:/population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/UN Population Division:World Urbanization Prospects 2018.https:/population.un.org/wup/Download/UN Population Division:International Migration 2019.https:/www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/In
65、ternationalMigration2019_Report.pdfUN International Organisation for Migration(IOM):World Migration Report 2022.https:/publications.iom.int/books/world-migration-report-2022Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre/Norwegian Refugee Council:Global Report on Internal Displacement 2022.https:/www.intern
66、al-displacement.org/global-report/grid2022/World Bank:Groundswell Report Part 2,2022.https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/36248Wittgenstein Centre:Human Capital data,March 2023.http:/dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/World Bank:GDP data,March 2023.https:/data.worldbank.org/indic
67、ator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CDUN:Universal Declaration of Human Rights,1948.https:/www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/UN:Plan on Safety for Journalists,2012.https:/www.un.org/depts/german/menschenrechte/UN_Plan_on_Safety_Journalists_DUED.pdfReporters without borders:World Press Freedom Index 2
68、022.https:/rsf.org/en/indexCato Institute:The Human Freedom Index 2022.https:/www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2023-01/human-freedom-index-2022.pdfForesight Alliance:Who Will Be Free?The Battles for Human Rights to 2050,2012.http:/ 1 People&Society People&Society1.1PopulationEducation&Labor1.3Value
69、s1.4Migration1.2Economics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CarePolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources17Megatrend 2Politics&Governancevacant1818Global risks center around environmental concerns while geopolitical power shifts are underway Decline of democratic traits acceleratesSubtrends of mega
70、trend Politics&Governance132Geo-politicsFuture of DemocracyGlobal RisksPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksGeo-politics2.2Future of Democracy2.31919Anticipating global risks is central to proficient politics and good
71、 governance For the decade ahead,environmental risks weigh in heavily The World Economic Forums Global Risks report is based on its annual Global Risks Perception Survey,completed by more than 1,200 members from the WEFs network of business,government,civil society thought leaders,policy makers and
72、risk experts.Input for the 2023 report was sought in the fall of 2022 The WEF defines global risk as the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition which,if it occurs,would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP,population or natural resources.Among the WEF Global Risks
73、 2023 assessment with a 10-year view,environmental(climate-and nature-related)risks clearly dominate the top 5 as well as the top 10 going forward a trend evident for more than half a decade However,a wider variety of global risks is jostling for the attention of decision makers:Beyond the top 10,th
74、e impact of geopoliticalas well as technological risks are both more pronounced in the top 20 long term,while societal risks are spread throughout.Most notably among the latter,challenges brought on by large-scale involuntary migration takes fifth positionTop 20 global risks on a ten-year horizon by
75、 likely severity of impactSources:WEF;Roland Berger1Failure to mitigate climate change2Failure of climate-change adaptation3Natural disasters and extreme weather events4Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse5Large-scale involuntary migration6Natural resource crises7Erosion of social cohesion and s
76、ocietal polarization8Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity9Geoeconomic confrontation10Large-scale environmental damage incidents11Misinformation and disinformation12Ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions and international cooperation13Interstate conflict14Debt crisis15Cost-of-living crisi
77、s16Breakdown of critical information infrastructure17Digital power concentration18Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies19Failure to stabilize price trajectories20Chronic diseases and health conditionsEconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnologicalPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology
78、&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksGeo-politics2.2Future of Democracy2.32020Nearer term and at country level,national economic and geopolitical challenges dominate National risk perception is uneven For the World Economic Forums Executive Opinion Survey ove
79、r 12,000 respondents from 121 economies were asked to assess the most pressing issues for the next two years in their country2)Within this shorter time frame,national perceptions of critical risks vary substantially,highlighting top local concerns or their absence when compared to other countries Fo
80、r the next two years,economic and geopolitical risks weigh heavily among executives in the largest economies;beyond that,a more mixed picture can be observed Climate-and nature-related risks feature in very different ways:China and the US,for example,are the worlds largest CO2emitters;however,for 20
81、23 and 2024 China is more concerned with risks stemming from natural disasters and weather events(#2)when compared to the US,where the risk of failure of climate-change adaptation is the#5 concern Five most important risks for 2023 and 2024 by selected countries1)1)Top 12 countries by GDP in 2022 in
82、cluded in the study;2)Survey undertaken April-September 2022,Russia not includedSources:WEF;IMF;Roland BergerUSGermanyChinaJapanIndiaFrance1Debt crisisRapid and/or sustained inflationGeoeconomic confrontationGeoeconomic confrontationDigital inequalityDebt crisis2Rapid and/or sustained inflationSever
83、e commodity price shocksNatural disasters&ex-treme weather eventsNatural disasters&ex-treme weather eventsGeopolitical contesta-tion of resourcesSevere commodity price shocks3BrazilSevere economic price shocksEmployment and livelihood crisesRapid and/or sustained inflationProliferation of illicit ec
84、onomic activityGeoeconomic confrontationSouth KoreaAsset bubble burstDebt crisisRapid and/or sustained inflationProliferation of illicit economic activitySevere commodity supply crisesGeoeconomic confrontationInterstate conflictRapid and/or sustained inflationProlongued economic stagnationCost-of-li
85、ving crisisRapid and/or sustained inflation4Cost-of-living crisisSevere commodity supply crisesInfectious diseasesSevere commodity price shocksDebt crisisCost-of-living crisisFailure of climate-change adaptationAsset bubble burstDigital power concentrationGeopolitical contestation of resources5Geopo
86、litical contestation of resourcesUKCost-of-living crisesDebt crisesRapid and/or sustained inflationFailure of climate-change adaptationInterstate conflictAsset bubble burstTerrestrial biodi-versity loss&eco-system collapseItalyRapid and/or sustained inflationInterstate conflictDebt crisesFailure of
87、climate-change adaptationAsset bubble burstGeopolitical contestation of resourcesNatural disasters and extreme weather eventsErosion of social cohesionCanadaCost-of-living crisisDebt crisisRapid and/or sustained inflationFailure of climate-change adaptationAsset bubble burstAustraliaCost-of-living c
88、risisDebt crisesRapid and/or sustained inflationGeoeconomic confrontationFailure of climate-change adaptationEconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnologicalPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksGeo-politics2.2Fu
89、ture of Democracy2.32121The geopolitical fallout of global shocks is unearthing new tensions,embedding structural change among the constellation of powerful actorsReshuffling the global order of powerful players,blocs and international alliances Due to Russias invasion of Ukraine,NATOs importance is
90、 renewed.At present the alliance has 31 member countries,including Finland which joined NATO in April 2023.Swedens application to join has been formally submitted,but ratifications by Hungary and Turkey are still pending;three countries(Ukraine,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Georgia)show strong aspirations
91、to join New hybrid unions are becoming more prominent:in June 2023,India will be hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO),a Eurasian organization for mutual security,political and economic cooperation founded in 2001.Full members include China,Russia,India,Iran,Pakistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzst
92、an,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.Iran is set to become a full member,Saudi-Arabia is set to become a dialogue member.Turkey has expressed a wish to join this forum,causing friction with other NATO membersShocksof recent years most notably,the war in Ukraine andCOVID-19 pandemic have reflected and accele
93、rated an epochal change to the global order.Risksthat are more severe in the short term are embedding structural changes to the economicandgeopolitical land-scapethat will accelerate other global threats faced over the next 10 years.EUG20SCOBRICS+Technology powerHuman capitalResiliencyInformation po
94、werNetwork powerMilitary powerEconomic powerSourcesof powerChanging constellation of powerful actorsInternational order under revisionAlliancesStandardsTreatiesNormsGlobal intergovernmental organizationsUS/ChinaWTONonstateactorsRegionalpowersFactors and challenges influencing the global world order
95、Sources:NIC;WEF;UN;NATO;SCO;Roland BergerWorld Economic ForumPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksGeo-politics2.2Future of Democracy2.32222Along dimensions of geopolitics and world trade we see four different scenario
96、s for a future world order For some time,global governance displays a notable tendency toward rivalrous multi-polarity,where major powers and blocs compete more intensely and less co-operatively on the global stage leaving the rest of the world to strike a difficult balance While the pace of globali
97、zation continues to slow,a transition to more unilateral action of major powers can be observed,as is evident in the rise of trade protectionism the latest example being the US IRA1)Established global value chains rely on a liberal,cooperative and peaceful world order.The Russian invasion of Ukraine
98、 has shown that such a world cannot be taken as a given and subsequent sanctioning of the Russian invasion has further polarized the international order while the war exacerbates already existing economic disruptions and challenges such as inflation and shortages stemming from the global pandemic At
99、 the same time,this has raised the question of what the relationship of democratic states with authoritarian/autocratic regimes may look like in the futureNeo-ImperialismIncreased level of international conflicts Reciprocal sanctions reduce trade Emergence of economically separate empiresIsolationis
100、mEmergence of largely isolated economic blocs Reshoring and independence from foreign resources Cooperation/CoexistenceConfrontationGeopoliticsLocalized&decoupled value chains CompetitivemultilateralismContinued cooperation and interdependent global value chainsHegemonial rivalryEmergence of strong
101、political blocs dominated by major playersGlobal trade continues,albeit with higher trade barriers between blocsWorld tradeGlobalized&interdependent value chains 1203Q1 2020:COVID-19 pandemicThe world after the Global Financial CrisisTodayNext?Q1 2022:Russian invasion of UkraineInternational order s
102、cenario matrix1)Inflation Reduction Act of 2022Sources:Roland Berger;US CongressPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksGeo-politics2.2Future of Democracy2.32323A more divided world:Autocratization trends are intensifyin
103、g The future of liberal democracy is under threatThe University of Gothenburg varieties of democracies(V-DEM)dataset covers 470+indicators for 200+countries.According to V-DEM,electoral democracies are systems where a number of institutional features guarantee free and fair elections such as freedom
104、 of association and freedom of expression;liberal democracies in addition include protection of individual liberties,and the checks and balances between institutions;autocracies(electoral or closed)display a sliding lack of such featuresNumber of countries classified by regime type,1972-20221)Electo
105、ral democracies are the most common regime type;electoral democracies as well as electoral autocracies have increased in numbers over the past five decades the latter,for example,includes Serbia,Hungary,and India The most recent years increase in the number of electoral democracies may appear to be
106、a positive but is largely a consequence of liberal democracies undergoing(gradual)autocratization For the first time since 1995,there are fewer liberal democracies than closed autocracies;the former decline from a peak of 44 in 2009 to 32 in 2022 The number of closed autocracies has gone up from a l
107、ow of 22 in 2012 to 33 in 2022,highlighting the other momentum of the current wave of autocratization.In recent years,countries such as Afghanistan,Chad,Guinea,Haiti,Iran,Mali,Myanmar,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan havefallen under this regime type1)Uncertainty remains about regimes that exhibit simila
108、r degrees of authoritarian and democratic traits and thus are close to the threshold between democracy and autocracy.In 2022,such uncertainty applied to 16 countries.Thus,the number of autocracies in the world might range from 84 to 100 countries,with 89 being the best estimateSources:University of
109、Gothenburg/V-Dem Institute;Roland BergerNumber of countriesClosed autocraciesElectoral autocraciesElectoral democraciesLiberal democracies56323358007080900200020102020 202216203686People&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Gov
110、ernance2.1Global RisksFuture of Democracy2.3Geo-politics2.22424Within democracies,public dissatisfaction with democracy is on the rise since 2005 However,amongst advanced economies views vary widelyGlobal dissatisfaction with democracy,1996-2020 and spring 2022%The University of Cambridges Centre fo
111、r the Future of Democracy tracks the mood in 77 democracies;observations are based on a constant-country,population-weighted sample of these democracies for which data exists from the mid-1990s to 2019.This represents 2.4 billion individuals across all continentsShare of population in 77 democracies
112、 being dissatisfied with democracy,1996-2020%1)Hungary,Malaysia and Singapore are electoral autocracies according to the V-DEM University of Gothenburg classificationSources:University of Cambridge Bennett Institute;Pew Research Center;Roland Berger5040603047.957.538.79Pew Research survey
113、ed public attitudes in 19 advanced economies from March to May 2022 Across the globe,democracy appears to be in a state of discontent:dissatisfaction with democracy has risen over time 2019 represents the highest level of democratic discontent on record:nearly 58%are unhappy with democracy The rise
114、in democratic dissatisfaction has been especially sharp since 2005,with just 38.7%of citizens dissatisfied in that year.Since then,the proportion of dissatisfied citizens in the 77 observed democracies has risen by almost one-fifth of the population But views can vary widely at the national level:ac
115、cording to a Pew Research survey undertaken across 19 advanced economies in spring 2022 levels of dissatisfaction with democracy are notable in southern European nations(Spain,Italy,Greece)but also the US,while northern European countries(Sweden,Germany,Netherlands,Poland,UK)appear more satisfied wi
116、th the way democracy is working in their countryShare of population in selected democracies being not satisfied/satisfied with democracy,spring 2022%68666662595650494948474645434336322320South KoreaGermanySpainFranceGreeceJapanItalyUSHungary1)PolandMalaysia1)IsraelBelgiumUKAustraliaCanadaNetherlands
117、Singapore1)Sweden3495055763677879Not satisfiedSatisfied2005-2019:18.8 pp.rise in dissatisfactionPeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksFuture of Democracy2.3Geo-politics2.22525 The future of democr
118、acy requires concerted efforts not just in times of war A notable,renewed level of recognition of the importance and value of democracy has reached political leaders in democracies Standing united can contribute to their strength,but only if citizens are equally committed to democratic principles Th
119、is succeeds only if institutions and processes are truly democratic(fairness,no corruption,checks and balances)and if they are efficient and contribute to prosperity and if democratically elected leaders abide by this mandateDemocratic leaders stand united:Combatting autocratic trends is high on the
120、ir agenda Russian invasion of democratic Ukraine adds significanceLatest US and EU democratic efforts and themes and the standpoint of UkraineSources:US State Department;European Commission;Roland BergerUSA:International Democracy SummitHeld in 2021&2023 Three key themes:Defending against authoritar
121、ianismAddressing and fighting corruption Advancing respect for human rightsEU:European Democracy Action PlanLaunched December 2020Includes measure on:Electoral integrity Tackling disinformationMedia freedom Media pluralismDemocracy doesnt happen by accident.We have to defend it,fight for it,strength
122、en it,renew it.Joe BidenPresident of the USDemocracy is Europes most powerful diplomatic tool.Our work to uphold democracy globally has never been so important.Ursula von der Leyen President,EU CommissionTogether we need to save Ukraine.Together we need to save the world of democracy.“Volodymyr Zele
123、nsky,President of UkrainePeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksFuture of Democracy2.3Geo-politics2.22626Main sourcesWorld Economic Forum(WEF):Global Risks Report 2023.https:/www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Repor
124、t_2023.pdfNational Intelligence Council(NIC):Global Trends 2040 A more contested world,March 2021.https:/www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-homeUnited Nations(UN):UN votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council,7 April 2022.https:/news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782North Atlantic Treaty Organiza
125、tion(NATO):Enlargement and Article 10.https:/www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htmUK Government/Ministry of Defence:Global Strategic Trends 2050 The future starts today(6th edition,2018).https:/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/771309/Globa
126、l_Strategic_Trends_-_The_Future_Starts_Today.pdfEuropean Commission:EU-China-A Strategic Outlook,March 2019.https:/commission.europa.eu/system/files/2019-03/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdfUniversity of Gothenburg/Varieties of Democracy(V-Dem):Varieties of Democracy report 2023.https:/
127、www.v- of Cambridge Bennett Institute/Centre for the Future of Democracy(Foa,R.S.,Klassen,A.,Slade,M.,Rand,A.and R.Collins):The Global Satisfaction with Democracy Report 2020.https:/www.cam.ac.uk/system/files/report2020_003.pdfPew Research Center:Global Attitudes Survey,Spring 2022.https:/www.pewres
128、earch.org/global/2022/12/06/satisfaction-with-democracy-and-political-efficacy-in-advanced-economies-2022/US State Department:International Democracy Summit(s)2021&2023.https:/www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/European Commission:European Democracy Action Plan.https:/ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/prio
129、rities-2019-2024/new-push-european-democracy/european-democracy-action-plan_enMegatrend 2 Politics&GovernancePeople&SocietyEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Politics&Governance2.1Global RisksFuture of Democracy2.3Geo-politics2.227Megatrend 3Environment&Resources
130、2828Accelerating mitigation of global climate change effects is a must In the future,biodiversity,water,food,and raw materials face critical issues1Climate Change&Pollution3Resources&Raw MaterialsSubtrends of megatrend Environment&Resources2Bio-diversityPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&Bus
131、inessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.32929Alongside CO2concentration increases,the global average temperature has risen over the last century Both trends continue in this century0.40.0-0.60.2-0.40.6-0.20.81.01.
132、2CO2concentration in the atmosphere left scale,ppm and global temperature anomalies compared to the average global temperature in the 20thcentury right scale,C280300320340360380400420000CO2/Temperature increase nexusTemperatureCO2concentrationSources:NOAA;Climate Act
133、ion Trackers/Interactive;EPA;IPCC;Roland Berger Carbon dioxide(CO2)concentration in the atmosphere in-creased significantly since 1880 and even more rapidly within the past 60 years.Today it is well above 400 parts per million(ppm).This is the highest level for at least 800,000 years In parallel to
134、the rise in CO2concentration,the global average temperature increased around 1.2C above pre-industrial levels The graph only shows CO2concentration.Other greenhouse gases(GHG)also contribute to the greenhouse effect and human-induced climate change:besides CO2,methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)also
135、play an important role CO2s lifetime cannot be represented with a single value as some of the excess CO2 is absorbed quickly(e.g.by the ocean surface)while some will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years;methane lasts about 12 years and nitrous oxide around 109 years To make GHG emissions
136、comparable,scientists evaluate the Global Warming Potential(GWP),measuring the contribution to global warming of a specific mass of a GHG relative to the same mass of CO2.Thus,using GWP,the CO2-equivalent(CO2e)of any GHG can be measured Over 100 years,the GWP of methane and nitrous oxide are nearly
137、30 and 273 times higher,respectively,than the GWP of CO2 Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care3030Human-induced global temperature increases can only be limited to
138、1.5C if major additional efforts are made to reach carbon neutrality by 2080Global GHG emissions GtCO2e/year20200Optimistic scenario+1.8C1.5C CompatibleHighLow2030 targets only+2.4CPledges&targets+2.0C The Climate Action Tracker(CAT)visualizes various scenarios
139、 to show the effects of different efforts to limit global warming1)The scenario Policies&action refers to laws which are currently in place and will most likely result in a global warming of 2.6-2.9C 2030 targets only scenario refers to(intended)nationally determined contributions of governments wit
140、hin the Paris Agreement.This would lead to a global warming of 2.4C If binding long-term or net-zero targets are included(Pledges&targets scenario)global warming could be limited to 2C The optimistic scenario analyzes the effect of net-zero emissions targets that are either adopted or under discussi
141、on in around 140 countries.Here,the median warming estimate is 1.8C.As a warming above 2Ccannot be ruled out,this scenario is not Paris Agreement compatible The dotted green line is the only case that is 1.5Ccompatible:in this scenario,GHG emissions need to be reduced rapidly to be brought to zero b
142、etween 2070 and 2080 The consequences of global warming are evident:rising sea level,ice-free summers in the Arctic,melting glaciers,coral bleaching,heat waves,floods,storms,lower crop yields,extinction of species.The intensity and irreversibility of these impacts depend on the level of the temperat
143、ure riseGlobal warming projected by 21002100 global warming projections under different scenarios1)The CAT is an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement aim of holding warming well below 2C,and pursuing efforts
144、to limit warming to 1.5CSources:Climate Action Tracker;Roland BergerHistorical2030 target gap19-22 GtCO2e2030 implementation gap23-27 GtCO2ePolicies&action+2.9C+2.6C Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&B
145、usinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care3131Selected levers for GHG reductions:higher efficiency in industrial processes,increased use of renewable energy sources,regional production,better energy efficiency of buildings,smart solutions(e.g.in supply chains,mobility and logistics,cities)CO2dominates
146、the emissions mix while 2/3 of global GHG stem from just 10 emitters Sectoral source analysis also points to actionable leversGlobal GHG emissions 2019:49.8 GtCO2eSources of global GHG emissions 2019Composition of global GHG emissions 20191)Biggest GHG emitters 2019 1)GHG:green house gas;most recent
147、 data availableSources:World Resources Institute;Climate Watch;IEA;Global Change Data Lab;Roland Berger74%17%6%Nitrous oxideCO2Methane2%Others25%12%7%7%4%4%31%ChinaUSBrazilRussiaEUIndonesiaIndia3%Others2%Japan2%Iran2%Canada32%17%13%12%8%6%6%3%Other energy useEnergy use for transportationEnergy use f
148、or manufacturingLand-use&forestryAgricultureEnergy use in buildingsWasteIndustrial processes3%Energy use for electricity/heat Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care3
149、232Beyond GHGs:Other types of pollution are damaging our environment and threaten human health Informed limitation and directed efforts are keyLand pollutionGlobally,33%of waste is still openly dumped and approx.40%goes to landfillsNoise pollutionIn middle-and high-income countries,1 of 2 young peop
150、le(aged 12-35 years)listen to unsafe levels of soundAir pollution9 out of 10 people breathe airthat exceeds WHO air pollution guidelines Air pollution is responsible for 1 in 8 deaths worldwideWater pollutionThe Great Pacific OceanGarbage Patch contains 1.8 trillion pieces of plastic in an area of 1
151、.6 million km2 3x the size of FranceTitelLight pollutionExamplesLiquid,solid or sludge waste(open dump or landfill),microplastics in sewage sludge used as fertilizer,pesticides,herbicides,heavy metalsTraffic noise,flight paths,heavy machinery,music and video streaming,concertsFine dust,sulfur dioxid
152、e,carbon monoxide,nitrogen oxides,ozone,chemical vapors,pollen,radioactive air pollutantsWaste(esp.plastics)and sewage,bacteria,oil,chemicals,pesticides and herbicides,fertilizer,tire abrasions,metals,drugsOver-illumination of streets/places/buildings/industrial plants and facilitiesSelected origins
153、Industry and household waste,mines,agriculture,natural/chemical/nuclear catastrophes Vehicles,aviation,industrial/construction/mining activities,leisure pursuitsFuel combustion for energy production/transportation,heating,non-exhaust vehicle emissions,natural/chemical/nuclear catastrophes Industry a
154、nd household sewage,mines,vehicles&vessels,agricultural runoff,spillages,fracking,natural oil seeps,natural/chemi-cal/nuclear catastrophes Public and private infrastructure,vehicles,industrial and leisure activities83%of the worlds population live under light-pollutedskiesPollution reduction and mit
155、igation approaches Ban(more)harmful pollutants Set tighter pollution limits across all types of pollution Implement emission-free/lower emission energy production and industrial processes Switch to circularity approaches and longer-lasting,more sustainable products Inform and improve better land use
156、,waste and light management practicesSources:LiveScience;WHO;WWF;Ocean Cleanup;World Bank;National Geographic;International Journal of Science and Research;Roland Berger Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomi
157、cs&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care3333People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareBiodiversity is declining:One third of terrestrial species have been lost to date The need to tackle rising pressures spurs new global treatiesTerrestrial mean species ab
158、undance loss 2020 and 2050 for selected regions and countries1)%loss compared to pristine ecosystem-35%-40%-22%-35%-66%-71%-37%-41%-43%-46%WorldNorth AmericaEuropeBrazilChina33%15%1%19%11%2%17%3%%26%12%11%11%1%0%0%2030-2050Relative share of pressures to additional terrestrial biodiversity
159、 loss 2010-2030 and 2030-20501)%Climate changeForestryBioenergyInfrastructure,encroachment,fragmentationFormer land useNitrogenFood cropPasture1)According to the Baseline scenario of the OECD,which includes steady GDP growth and a strong ongoing use of fossil fuels;2)United Nations Convention on the
160、 Law of the Sea 1982Sources:OECD;COP15;UN/BBNJ;Roland Berger202020-2050 In December 2022,the 15th Conference of Parties(COP15)to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity(CBD)adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF).Overall,this includes four goals and 23 target
161、s for achievement by 2030 in terms of biodiversity protection,restauration and funding,comprising the so-called 30 by 30 plan which aims to protect and conserve 30%of the planets land and sea by 2030 including indigenous and traditional lands.Restoration is to be completed or underway on at least 30
162、%of degraded terrestrial,inland waters,and coastal and marine ecosystems In addition,in March 2023,the Intergovernmental Conference on Marine Biodiversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction(BBNJ)secured the so-called Treaty of the High Seas(adopted by the UN in June 2023,ratification phase starti
163、ng in September 2023).The treaty is a new legally binding international instrument to ensure the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction through effective implementation of the relevant provisions of the UN Convention2)and further interna
164、tional cooperation and coordination;this agreement reinforces efforts to protect biodiversity in line with the aims of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Kunming-Montreal Global Framework for Biodiversity Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw
165、Materials3.3202020503434Sustainable biodiversity is a must have for our planet and for our economy More than half of global GDP is dependent on nature Methods to quantify the economic value of biodiversity are complex yet important as biodiversity is under extreme pressure worldwide,with one million
166、 animal and plant species threatened with extinction according to UN estimates WEF research shows that USD 44 trillion of economic value generation more than half of the worlds total GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services,and therefore directly exposed to risks from nature
167、lossThree illustrative examples:More than 75%of global food crops are dependent on insect pollinators,thus contributing 35%of global food production.According to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES)the annual value of global crop output at risk
168、due to pollinator loss is estimated at USD 235-577 billion Great whales sequester 33 tons of CO2on average over their lifetime.Together with other economic effects such as fishery enhancement,ecotourism,and phytoplankton productivity(capturing 37 billion tons CO2p.a.),the IMF estimates the average v
169、alue of a great whale at more than USD 2 million and the value for the current stock of great whales at over USD 1 trillion Antarctic krill in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea region deliver carbon sequestration services with an estimated(lower bound)value of USD 15.2 billion annuallyValue of
170、biodiversity for a sustainable and economically sound planetSources:UN/IPBES;WEF;IMF;WWF;Roland BergerUSD 235-577 billion p.a.USD 1 trillionUSD 15.2 billion p.a.People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-div
171、ersity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.33535The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF),agreed at the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties(COP15)to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity(CBD)in December 2022,addresses key biodiversity funding issues at the global level by targeting tw
172、o areas The reduction of harmful subsidies:progressively phase out or reform by 2030 subsidies that harm biodiversity by at least USD 500 billion p.a.,while scaling up positive incentives for biodiversitys conservation and sustainable use(Target 18)The mobilization of resources and effectiveness of
173、funding flows:by 2030,at least USD 200 billion p.a.in domestic and international biodiversity-related funding from all sources(public and private);to raise international financial flows from developed to developing countries to at least USD 20 billion p.a.by 2025,and to at least USD 30 billion p.a.b
174、y 2030(Target 19)but less than 1%of annual global GDP could close the USD 711 billion per year biodiversity funding gap conserving the planets environmentSources:Paulson Institute/Cornell/Nature Conservancy;UN COP15;Roland BergerGlobal biodiversity conservation financing vs.global biodiversity conse
175、rvation needs USD bnGlobal biodiversity conservation financing in 2019Global biodiversity conservation financing needs by 2030Bio-diversity financing gapUSD 711 bnUpper limitLower limitMean In 2019,the total global annual flow of funds toward biodiversity protection amounted to approx.USD 124-143 bi
176、llion p.a.Meanwhile,annual government expenditure on activities harmful to biodiversity in the form of agricultural,forestry,and fisheries subsidies USD 274-542 billion p.a.in 2019 is two to four times higher than annual capital flows toward biodiversity conservationCurrent biodiversity financing fl
177、ows To halt the decline in global biodiversity requires USD 722-967 billion p.a.in spending between now and 2030 This leaves an estimated global biodiversity financing gap of USD 598-824 billion p.a.(average:USD 711 billion)roughly equal to just under 1%of annual global GDPFuture biodiversity spendi
178、ng needs133.5844.5722967124143People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.33636People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareAn inconv
179、enient truth about energy consumption:Unless concerted efforts modify global patterns,fossil fuels are still set to top the 2050 energy mixBy regionWorld quadrillion BtuBy fuel World quadrillion Btu89235333020506028864635482304035366423742789402020506028861)Includes
180、biofuels;2)IEO 2021 reference case using EIA World Energy Projections System(WEPS)Sources:EIA;Roland BergerGlobal energy consumption according to the EIA International Energy Outlook(IEO)2021CoalNatural gasPetroleum&other liquids1)NuclearRenewablesOECD AmericasOECD EuropeOECD AsiaNon-OECD AmericasNo
181、n-OECD Europe&EurasiaNon-OECD AsiaMiddle EastAfrica Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.3The IEO report is based on the following assumptions2):2021 views of economic and demographic trends and improvements in known technology Implementation of 20
182、21 laws and regulationsTo lower consumption of fossil fuels,we need more and better coordinated global efforts to secure climate protection of a country or region(e.g.CO2pricing)while ensuring its global competitivenessmore energy efficiency measuresgeared at halting the increase of overall global c
183、onsumptionmore technological innovations and solutions,and an open discussion regarding potential consequences(e.g.new grids,hydrogen pipelines)to pay the price for climate and biodiversity protection,i.e.an understanding and acceptance of a loss of prosperity 3737The demand for water is expected to
184、 grow significantly toward 2050 Efficient water use/management is one of many levers to mitigate this riseWaterMain drivers of demand Population growth GDP growth Growing prosperity Urbanization Sectoral change1)Linear extrapolation of 2000 and 2050 dataSources:OECD;Roland BergerGlobal water demand
185、20201)vs.2050 km352%21%43%12%1%20204,325 km337%25%22%14%1%20505,467 km3IrrigationManufacturingElectricityDomesticLivestock+32%WaterMain levers for a sustainable water resource management Incentivize water use efficiency Invest in water storage innovatively Reconsider water allocation mechanisms Miti
186、gate water related disasters Improve wastewater treatment/reduce run-off Accelerate water supply and sanitation in developing countries Improve water governance for coherencePeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&Pol
187、lutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.33838Similarly,the demand for food is expected to rise substantially to 2050 Multiple levers can help address the future food gapFoodMain drivers of demand Population growth Growing prosperity leading to a shift in diets1)Under current rate of productiv
188、ity gains,emissions from agriculture and land-use change will increase to 15 GtCO2e per year in 2050Sources:World Resources Institute;Roland BergerGlobal food demand 20101)vs.2050 km3FoodMain levers to close the gaps Raise productivity Manage demand Link agricultural intensification to natural ecosy
189、stems protection Moderate ruminant meat consumption Target reforestation and peatland restoration Require production-related climate mitigation Spur technological innovationThree gaps that must be closed to achieve a sustainable food future in 2050:To meet the higher demand for food in 2050 we need(
190、compared to 2010)The food gap 56%more crop calories being produced56%moreThe GHGmitigation gap 11 GtCO2e GHG emissions p.a.in 2050 from agriculture and land-use change1)need to be lowered to 4 GtCO2e p.a.to meet the 2C Paris goal2050205015411 GtCO2e/yThe land gap 593 million ha more agricultural lan
191、d twice the size of India2xsize of India2010201012People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.33939Beyond water,food,and energy resources,many raw materials are critical f
192、or our economy China is the dominant supplier of a wide range of CRMsChinaAluminum(56%)Antimony(56%)Arsenic(44%)Baryte(44%)Bismuth(70%)Cobalt(60%)Coking Coal(53%)Fluorspar(56%)Gallium(94%)Germanium(83%)Lithium(56%)Magnesium(91%)Manganese(58%)Natural graphite(67%)Phosphate rock(44%)Phosphorus(79%)Sca
193、ndium(67%)Silicon metal(76%)Titanium metal(43%)Tungsten(86%)Vanadium(62%)Light REEs2)(84%)Heavy REEs(100%)USABeryllium(67%)Helium(56%)BrazilNiobium(92%)South AfricaIridium(93%)Manganese(29%)Palladium(36%)Platinum(71%)Rhodium(81%)Ruthenium(93%)D.R.of CongoCobalt(63%)Tantalum(35%)TurkeyBoron(48%)Felds
194、par(32%)RussiaPalladium(40%)ChileCopper(28%)SpainStrontium(31%)FranceHafnium(49%)AustraliaAluminum(33%)Lithium(53%)Countries accounting for largest share of global supply of selected critical raw materials(CRMs),20231)%EU analysis concerning critical raw materials(CRM)and global suppliers Since 2011
195、 the EU reports on the global supply of raw materials.The 2023(fifth)assessment covers 87 individual raw materials of global/EU importance The EU defines a raw material as critical when its economic importance and its supply risk is high.For the EU,34 raw materials or raw material groups are identif
196、ied as criticalSelected CRMs and examples of end-use Beryllium:electronic and telecommunications equipment Germanium:infrared optics Hafnium:superalloys Rhodium:auto catalysts Phosphate rock:mineral fertilizer Tantalum:capacitors Tungsten:tools1)Main global producers/processors of raw materials list
197、ed as critical for the EU in 2023;2)REEs:Rare Earths ElementsSources:European Commission;Roland BergerIranStrontium(37%)Italic=Extraction stageRegular=Processing stagePeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionB
198、io-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.34040The transition to cleaner energy technologies and systems alters raw material dependencies Future CRM demand is a multiple of todays1)Largest producers and consumers are indicative only;2)Data calculated under the IEAs Announced Pledges Scenario Sources:I
199、EA;WEF;MSC;Roland BergerLooking ahead Regarding the global energy transition and its underlying clean-energy technologies,certain CRMs will be much more in demand in the future:MineralUse in clean-energy techRise in demand,2050 relative to 2021,factor2)CobaltElectric vehicles(EVs),battery storage6.2
200、CopperSolar,wind,bio-energy,electricity networks,EVs,battery storage2.8LithiumEVs,battery storage24.0NickelGeothermal,EVs,battery storage,hydrogen12.3REEsWind,EVs,battery storage7.2Indicative supply chain of fossil fuels and relevance of key clean energy raw material producing countries and countrie
201、s of consumption(selective)OilOil and gasUpstreamRefining/midstreamConsumptionUSSARUUSCNRUUSCNINNatural GasUSRUIRRUQAAUUSRUCNCobaltWind installationMiningProcessingWind turbine&componentsCNDRCCNCNINUSESDERare earthsCNCNCNCNINUSESDEClean technologiesConsumptionMiningProcessingBattery materialBattery
202、cell/packCopperCNUSEUCLPECLCNKRJPCNUSKRPhotovoltaic system installationMiningProcessingPolysiliconSolar panelLithiumCNALCLCNCLCNKRDECNKRCANickelCNIDCNIDCNKRDECNKRCACNEUUSEUUSEUUSEUUSPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Ch
203、ange&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.34141Main sourcesClimate Action Tracker:Temperatures.https:/climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/European Commission:Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023 Final Report,March 2023.https:/single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sy
204、stem/files/2023-03/Study%202023%20CRM%20Assessment.pdfEuropean Commission:Supply chain analysis and material demand forecast in strategic technologies and sectors in the EU A foresight study(2023).https:/single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-03/Raw%20Materials%20Foresight%20Study%2020
205、23.pdfCOP15:Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework,December 2022.https:/prod.drupal.www.infra.cbd.int/sites/default/files/2022-12/221219-CBD-PressRelease-COP15-Final_0.pdfOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD):Environmental Outlook 2050,2012.https:/read.oecd-ilibrary.or
206、g/environment/oecd-environmental-outlook-to-2050_9789264122246-en#page1International Energy Agency(IEA):The role of critical minerals in clean energy transition,May 2021.https:/www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitionsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC
207、):Sixth Assessment Report,Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/World Resources Institute(WRI):Creating a sustainable food future,July 2019.https:/research.wri.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/WRR_Food_Full_Report_0.pdfPaulson Institute:Financing Nature,Sept
208、ember 2020.https:/www.paulsoninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/FINANCING-NATURE_Full-Report_Final-with-endorsements_101420.pdfWEF:Nature Risk Rising,January 2020.http:/www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_New_Nature_Economy_Report_2020.pdfWEF:Global Risks Report.https:/www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_R
209、isks_Report_2023.pdfMegatrend 3 Environment&ResourcesPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEconomics&BusinessTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Resources&Raw Materials3.342Megatrend 4Economics&Business4343Global value chains are under revision
210、,a new power bloc is emerging,energy transformation is key,pandemic accelerates global debt burdenSubtrends of megatrend Economics&BusinessPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care2Power Shifts Economics&Business1Global Trade&Value Chains4Debt Challenge3EnergyTransformationEn
211、vironment&Resources4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.24444Since the Global Financial Crisis,the pace of globalization has slowed and is expected to remain at current levelsGrowth of global trade volume1)and global GDP(real),yoy%1)Trade volume of goods
212、 and services(exports and imports)Sources:IMF;Roland Berger-10-8-6-4-202468005200252023-2027 forecastAverage trade growth:3.4%Average GDP growth:3.2%People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Economics&BusinessEnvironment&Resources4.1Global Trade&Value Ch
213、ainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.2 The speed of globalization(measured as the difference between growth of GDP and trade)reached its maximum in the mid-2000s:Between 2004 and 2007,global trade grew,in average,by 9.1%p.a.(compared to 4.5%between 1980-1989 and 6.5%between 199
214、0-1999)Since the Global Financial Crisis(GFC)2008/2009,trade growth has declined:Between 2011 and 2019,global trade at 3.7%p.a.grew only slightly stronger than GDP(3.5%).Forecasts for 2023-2027 expect global trade growth of 3.4%p.a.and global annual GDP growth of 3.2%One reason for this development
215、is clear:Globalization is already on a high level,therefore rates of growth of global trade are closer to rates of growth of global GDP Other reasons are that China increased its production of intermediate goods replacing imports,a weakening of global economic activity after GFC,and the increase of
216、trade barriers2008-2009Global Financial Crisis,rebound in 20102020Outbreak of COVID-19,rebound in 20212001-20029/11 and burst of dotcom bubble,rebound in 20032004-2007 Average trade growth:9.1%Average GDP growth:5.3%2011-2019Average trade growth:3.7%Average GDP growth:3.5%Growth of global trade volu
217、meGrowth of global GDP2022Begin of war in Ukraine and sanction policy9.1%5.3%3.7%3.5%3.4%3.2%4545As global trade is increasingly burdened by harmful trade interventions and policies,regional trade agreements offer potential to foster tradeCumulative number of harmful and liberalizing trade intervent
218、ions,globally 2010-20231)USMCA=United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement;2)CETA=Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement(EU and Canada);3)RCEP=Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(Asia-Pacific countries,incl.China,Japan,Australia);4)AfCFTA=African Continental Free Trade Agreement;5)Mercosur=Sou
219、th American trade bloc,full members are Argentina,Brazil,Paraguay and Uruguay;6)CPTPP=Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific PartnershipSources:Global Trade Alert;Roland Berger51520206,5362010202314,5152,220201537,9403,34830,5318,169HarmfulLiberalizingStrategic sovereignty policie
220、s Chinas Dual Circulation Strategy:putting a stronger focus on domestic consumption.Strategy Made in China 2025 aims to increase the share of domestically produced key materials,thus reducing dependence on foreign suppliers US Chips&Science Act:aimed at keeping manufacturing and research of semicond
221、uctors in the domestic market,lowering strategic dependence EU Chips Act:directed at strengthening domestic EU semiconductor market by reducing the strategic vulnerability from third country importsRace for green subsidies EU carbon levy:promoting greener industry by levying a carbon price tariff on
222、 polluting imports,disincentivizing imports from less developed countries US Inflation Reduction Act:promoting a greener economy by falling back on protectionist levers to boost domestic industry and energy transitionGeopolitical tensions Trade wars and sanction policies:causing fragmentation and bl
223、oc formation,disrupting global trade,harming producers and consumersSelected policies and interventions placing a burden on free global tradePotential to foster tradeOn a regional level there are strong existing institutions and agreements lowering trade barriers(e.g.EU,USMCA1),CETA2),RCEP3),AfCFTA4
224、),Mercosur5),CPTPP6)as well as ongoing efforts to establish new agreements(e.g.EU-Mercosur,EU enlargement)People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Economics&BusinessEnvironment&Resources4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.24646I
225、n the 2010s,domestic production regained importance in value chains This trend is set to continue due to a variety of factorsDomestic share of value added as a pro-portion of a countrys/regions total exports 2011 and 2018%2011201887.390.5+3.2 pp.2011201879.582.8+3.3 pp.2011201886.385.2+1.1 pp.75.320
226、1177.12018+1.8 pp.51%-20246200022Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 2010-2023Outlook to 2025:Survey of companies in advanced economies in 20221):What%of suppliers do you expect to be nearshored/re-shored on average within the next three years?In the 2010s,the domestic share of
227、value added of exports increased in China,US,EU and Germany for a variety of reasons Chinas economy moved up the value chain,replacing imports of intermediate products with domestic production By contrast,the increases observed in Western advanced economies,such as in the US,EU and Germany,are more
228、likely the result of policies fostering domestic industries Trade tensions,COVID-19,and the war in Ukraine are putting pressure on current supply chains Therefore,many inter-national companies are revising their supply chain strategy,reconsidering a broader and more regionalized supplier base1)The s
229、urvey commissioned by platform provider Interos and conducted by market research company Vanson Bourne took place from January 22 to March 22 among IT,IT security and procurement decision makers in companies from the US,UK,Ireland,Germany,Austria,Switzerland,France and Canada,and included companies
230、from the following sectors:aerospace and defense,financial services,IT and technology,pharmaceuticals/life sciences,government(central/national)Sources:OECD;Federal Reserve Bank of New York;Interos;Roland BergerPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&Care Economics&BusinessEnvir
231、onment&Resources4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.24747People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&ResourcesGlobal economic power is shifting to emerging countries Asian countries are poised to take center stageUSChina
232、JapanGermanyIndiaUKFranceRussiaCanadaItaly25,46317,9584,2554,0673,3803,0792,7772,2962,1392,011ChinaUSIndiaGermanyJapanIndonesiaUKRussiaFranceAustralia88,22868,88730,62211,21310,18010,0509,5778,2117,5226,738Sources:Oxford Economics;EEAS;Roland BergerGDP 2022GDP 2050Top 10 countries in terms of nomina
233、l GDP in 2022 and 2050 USD bnIn 2050,three of the top 6 global economic players will stem from emerging markets in Asia The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),a free trade agreement among 15 Asia-Pacific nations(Australia,Brunei,Cambodia,China,Indonesia,Japan,South Korea,Laos,Malaysia
234、,Myanmar,New Zealand,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Vietnam)formally signed in 2020,has demonstrated the ambitions of Asian countries to leverage their economic potential Comprising a broad range of fast growing developed and emerging economies and important advanced economies,a large potential
235、of skilled labor and a giant customer base with rapidly increasing purchasing power,many Asian countries are already economic powerhouses while others are on a clear path to become one in the future India has become the most populous country in 2023 and China will likely replace the United States as
236、 the worlds largest economy by 2033.By 2050,three of the top 6 global economic players will stem from emerging markets in Asia RCEP is a competitive force amongst free trade areas,but equally a new opportunity for its members and other trading blocs:the agreement may make it easier for other free tr
237、ade areas to trade with the Asia Pacific states,as it can reduce or replace the number of(existing)bilateral or country-level agreements Economics&Business4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.24848People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHea
238、lth&CareEnvironment&ResourcesToday,economic development can no longer be understood without climate change considerations To achieve net zero,all sectors must contributeGlobal CO2emissions by sector in the Net Zero Emissions Scenario vs Stated Policies Scenario Gt CO2-505540201014.49.37.7
239、3.02.22025032.0Projection based on stated policiesElectricity&heat1)IndustryTransportBuildingsOther With global temperatures continuing to rise and the effects of climate change becoming increasingly evident,reducing emissions from all economic sectors is essential in order to mitigate th
240、e worst of these effects and create a more sustainable future To achieve the goal of net zero emissions by 2050,the transformation of the power and heat generation sector must take place faster than other sectors,as the former is to be electrified extensively and therefore relies on vast amounts of
241、green electricity 53539655-3512)-6362)Stated Policies Scenario Outlines the emissions reduction goals that countries have already announced Assumes that countries continue to implement policies that are currently in place,such as emission targets set out in international agreementsNet Zero Emissions
242、 Scenario Sets out a path to reach global net zero emissions by 2050 Assumes that all countries implement ambitious policies to reduce emissions from all sectors,including energy,industry,buildings,transport,and land use Economics&Business4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4Power Shifts 4.2
243、EnergyTransformation4.31)Includes emissions from industrial processes and flaring;2)By 2050,the increased use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS)is expected to offset the CO2emissions of other sectors and thus become negative.Carbon removals and capture further contribute to reducing
244、 emissions with negative CO2emissionsSources:IEA;Roland Berger4949Massive investment is necessary to achieve the ambitious goal of net zero by 2050 Job creation in the clean energy sector and upskilling are keyBreakdown of global annual investment volumes needed on the way to net zero till 2050 USD
245、trillionSources:IEA;Roland Berger In order to achieve the ambitious target of reaching net zero by 2050,considerable investment is required.Annual clean energy investment needs to more than triple by 2030,thereby driving an average 0.4%p.a.increase in global GDP The IEA estimates that pursuing the t
246、arget of net zero will create 14 million new clean energy jobs by 2030,while another 16 million workers shift to new roles related to clean energy Around 60%of these new jobs require some degree of post-secondary training,making improvements in education a necessity for many countries Especially inv
247、estment in electricity generation requires rapid growth.As of today,renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power plants account for around 10%of global electricity generation4.42016-201.220300.44.11.70.30.120500.50.21.60.91.10.82.1Low emission fuelsElectricity generationEnergy infrastructure
248、End-usePeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources Economics&Business4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4Power Shifts 4.2EnergyTransformation4.35050People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth&CareEnvironment&Resources410
249、66080000220042006200820002213062Financially,the global economy is burdened by increasing levels of debt Debt levels rose more sharply in emerging economiesDevelopment of credit as a percentage of GDP1,2,3)%Advanced economies-Credit to General governmentAdv
250、anced economies-Credit to Private non-financial sectorEmerging economies-Credit to Private non-financial sectorEmerging economies-Credit to General government In recent decades,debt has increased sharply worldwide.To preserve economic stability and social cohesion,general governments were faced with
251、 raising large amounts of finance to support their national fiscal programs following historic events such as the financial crisis or the pandemic,but also to fund infrastructure projects and social programs To foster growth after the financial crisis,fiscal responses were supported by a far-reachin
252、g easing of monetary policy,thereby lowering interest rate levels also for the private sector,making borrowing cheaper The strong increase in credits to the private non-financial sector in emerging economies shows that these countries are climbing the economic development ladder Due to the war in Uk
253、raine,the rearmament announcements in many European countries,the need to rebuild Ukraine once the war ends,and giant investment in the green energy transition,there is likely to be a considerable need for investment in the future as well meaning,it can be assumed that debt will continue to rise in
254、the futureGFCCOVID-19 Economics&Business4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsPower Shifts 4.2EnergyTransformation4.3Debt Challenge4.41)Sum of credit to general government and private non-financial sector,including corporates and households;2)Credit to private nonfinancial sector is measured in market values
255、whereas government debt is measured in nominal terms;3)Data of the 4th quarter is used for each year besides 2022,where Q2 data is the most recent available dataSources:Bank for International Settlement;Roland Berger5151In the long run,analysts expect real interest rates to turn positive once more p
256、osing a potential debt challenge for governmentsLong-term real interest rates in selected economies1,2)%-3-2-10123Analysts long term expectations as of Nov 21Analysts long term expectations as of Nov 22USJapanGermanyFranceUKItalyCanadaNetherlandsNorwaySpainSwedenSwitzerland In recent years,long-term
257、 interest rates in industrialized countries,and especially in the increasingly integrated G7 capital markets,have been converging toward low or even negative levels Adjusted for inflation,real long-term interest rates in the major industrialized countries were broadly negative and most analysts expe
258、cted that negative real interest rates would persist in the future However,this has changed over the course of 2022 due to soaring inflation rates and central banks across the globe aggressively hiking rates compared to prior years with longer-term bond market yields respondingin turn While real int
259、erest rates are still negative in most industrialized countries,analysts long-term expectations indicate that real interest rates could again exceed the 0%threshold in the long term In the event of positive real interest rates,it will become more difficult to steer the countries elevated debt levels
260、 in a sustainable mannerLong-term real interest rate expectations1,2)%-10-50500082016 20172006 2007200920182020 202192023-2.7-5.7EurozoneUS1)Nominal 10-year bond yields deflated using 10-year inflation forecasts,like for like inflation adjustment 2023-20322)The calcu
261、lation of real interest rates is derived from the Fisher equation,namely(1+r)=(1+i)/(1+),where r is the real rate,i is the nominal rate and is the expected inflation rateSources:Consensus Economics;Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis;Roland BergerPeople&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHe
262、alth&CareEnvironment&Resources Economics&Business4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsPower Shifts 4.2EnergyTransformation4.3Debt Challenge4.45252Main sourcesMegatrend 4 Economics&BusinessInternational Monetary Fund(IMF):World Economic Outlook 10/2022.https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/
263、OctoberGlobal Trade Alert:Global Dynamics.https:/www.globaltradealert.org/global_dynamicsOECD:Trade in Value Added(TiVA)2018ed.https:/stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA_2018_C1Federal Reserve Bank of New York:GSCPI.https:/www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overviewInteros:Resilience 2
264、022 The Interos Annual Global Supply Chain Report.https:/www.interos.ai/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Resilience-2022_Interos_Annual-Global-Supply-Chain-Report_5_11_2022.pdfOxford Economics:Global Macro Database.https:/ Energy Outlook 2022.https:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022IEA:Clean E
265、nergy Investment 2016-2050.https:/www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/clean-energy-investment-in-the-net-zero-pathway-2016-2050International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA):World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022.https:/www.irena.org/Digital-Report/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2022#page-2Bank of
266、 International Settlements:BIS Statistics,retrieved May 2023.https:/stats.bis.org/#df=BIS:WS_TC(2.0);dq=.4T+5A+5R.P.%3FlastNObservations=6;pv=1,3,570,0,0nameConsensus Economics:Consensus Forecasts(RB subscription),retrieved May 2023.https:/People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceTechnology&InnovationHealth
267、&Care Economics&BusinessEnvironment&Resources4.1Global Trade&Value ChainsDebt Challenge4.4EnergyTransformation4.3Power Shifts 4.253Megatrend 5Technology&Innovation5454Technology investment and innovation capabilities remain key AI promises vast future potential but raises concerns for human valuesSu
268、btrends of megatrend Technology&Innovation1Value of Innovation3Humans&Machines 2Frontier TechnologiesEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources5555Technology and innovation
269、 drive prosperity Many developing countries lack abilities and access to catch up with developed countries540455055606540,000020,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000ChinaPakistanBangladeshQatarRussiaBelarusSaudi ArabiaBrazilSingaporeSpainSwedenCzech RepublicSwitzerlandFranceGermanyUKUSInd
270、iaIraqIrelandNorwayIsraelJapanKazakhstanLuxembourgNigeriaUAEGlobal Innovation IndexGDP per capita PPP USD The innovative capability of a nation is an essential engine of productivity,growth,and prosperity The Global Innovation Index(GII)ranks countries from 0 to 100 based on their ability to innovat
271、e.The index analyzes countries along a variety of metrics,including R&D intensity,patent applications,tertiary education efficiency,regulatory environment,productivity,high-tech density,and researcher concentration Evaluating the Global Innovation Index from a GDP/capita perspective,there is a clear
272、 message:the higher(lower)countries score on innovation the higher(lower)their GDP/capita.China is an exception in having successfully built up its innovation strength,yet the country still has a lower GDP/capita than developed countries Many developing countries lack abilities and access regarding
273、institutions and skills to close the technology and innovation gap.Established networks of higher education and research institutions as well as a significant number of technology companies involved in high-end R&D both evidenced in developed countries are notably absent To gain a broad picture of a
274、 countrys innovation capabilities,different innovation indices should be used.In addition to the GII,the new Innovation indicator,an innovation index jointly developed by Roland Berger,BDI,Fraunhofer and ZEW,dives deeply into the topic.It measures the innovation capability of 35 developed and emergi
275、ng markets.Criteria are the ability to produce innovations,the position in key technologies and the strength in terms of sustainability1)WIPO Global Innovation Index(GII)2022 related to GDP per capita PPP in 2022 Index,USD1)See BDI,Fraunhofer ISI,Roland Berger,ZEW:Innovationsindikator 2023Sources:WI
276、PO;World Bank;Roland BergerEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources5656Leading nations and global companies plan to invest heavily in technology A particular focus concer
277、ns chipmakersUS Chips&Science Act to invest USD 248 billion into semiconductors and R&D spending until 2026Samsung to invest USD 151 billion until 2030 in its chipmaking facilitiesVolkswagenintends to invest USD 193 billion in EV andbattery production until 2028Sources:The White House;European Commi
278、ssion;Reuters;IDC;Fortune;Yahoo Finance;Roland BergerGlobal IT investments in artificial intelligence to surpass USD 300 billion in 2026EU Chips Act mobilizesEUR 43 billionfor research and semiconductor manufacturing by 2030China is readying aUSD 143 billion package for its semiconductor industryall
279、ocated over 5 yearsSelected investments in technologyEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources5757Pharma and Software account for the highest share of R&D expenditure rela
280、tive to their revenue,thereby leading as most innovative sectorsR&D intensity by economic sector in companies from selected OECD countries1,2,3)%1)Adjusted for OECD inflation 2)The OECD database contains R&D expenditure taken from company reports for a sample of 60 companies across 14 countries,cons
281、isting of the 50 top R&D performersin the world featured in the 2020 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard,plus a selection of 10 other companies known as leaders in their sector 3)Defined as the share of R&D expendituresin the companys revenues 4)The Innovation Momentum Report by Lexis Nexis iden
282、tifies the top 100 companies according to the size and quality of their patent portfolioSources:OECD SwiFTBeRD;LexisNexis IPS;Roland Berger02468002020212022Other industries5.216.312.85.416.511.83.95.516.711.84.45.717.612.01.95.516.711.44.95.25.212.85.3Automotive&aerospacePharma
283、&biotechSoftware,computer&electronics16.2 Research and development(R&D)constitutes the area of a companys operations that pursues knowledge to develop,design,and improve its products,processes,technologies,or services.It is an important driver of economic growth spurring innovation,invention,and pro
284、gress By investing in R&D,companies seek to improve existing products and develop new ones in order to remain competitive,capture new markets,and develop new revenue streams In recent years,companies from the pharma&biotech and from the software,computer&electronics sectors recorded a particularly h
285、igh share of R&D spending as a percentage of revenue precisely these sectors also account for the highest share of the 100 most innovative companies18%16%12%12%12%9%8%13%Pharma-ceuticalsInformation technologiesElectronicsChemicals&materialsSemi-conductorsMedical technologiesConsumer goodsOther100 mo
286、st innovative companies,globally,share by industry sector4)%Economics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources5858Source:GartnerTodays frontier technologies are expected to experie
287、nce considerable growth,maturing to a market value of USD 9.5 trillion by 2030Global market size estimates of frontier technologies 2020 and 2030 USD bnSources:UNCTAD;Roland Berger73622525GBlockchainAIRoboticsIoTDrones3D printingBig data61651,582127404,42207189598246
288、41133210175Green hydrogenBiofuelsElectric vehiclesSolar PVConcentrated solar powerBiogas&biomassWind energy53436Nano-technologyGene editing20202030 x6x24x12x5x3x4x88x103x4x3Industry 4.0 frontier technologiesOther frontier technologiesGreen&renewable energy frontier technologiesx10 x2x2x89
289、x5x17x7 In its Technology and Innovation Report 2023,UNCTAD defines 17 new and rapidly developing technologies that take advantage of digitalization and connectivity These frontier technologies can be classified into three broad categories:Industry 4.0,green&renewable energy,and others In some cases
290、,these categories intersect.For example,drones are not classified as green frontier technology;however,using delivery drones allows for a reduction in GHG emissions since the energy consumption per load is lower compared to other means of deliveryEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.
291、1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources5959Source:GartnerChina and the US are dominating the global landscape of frontier technology patentsGlobal country share of patents,by frontier technology 2000-2021%A crucial indicat
292、or measuring and comparing national R&D efforts is the number of patents in frontier technologies Among investors and scientists,frontier technologies have generated increasing interest over the past two decades the related number of patents has skyrocketed.Patents in areas of biogas/biomass,AI,elec
293、tric vehicles and IoT account for the largest amount of patents The knowledge landscape for new fields of technology is dominated by China and the United States,together holding two thirds of global frontier technology patents However,it is vital to note that the quality of patents is equally import
294、ant.This can be measured by the international scope of patents,the grant ratio(filed patents/granted patents)as well as the commercialization rate of patents.Under such criteria,Chinas performance is lower than major developed countriesSources:UNCTAD;Centre for International Governance Innovation;Ro
295、land Berger334918United StatesChinaRest of World35569322740Industry 4.0 frontier technologiesOther frontier technologiesGreen&renewable energy frontier technologiesEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPoliti
296、cs&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources6060However,in terms of research for most of todays critical technologies,China is taking the academic leadCountries and their position regarding critical fields of technology1,2)Australian Strategic Policy Institutes Critical Technologies Tracker monitors a relevan
297、t set of high impact academic output for 44 selected critical technologies crucial toeconomic competitiveness and national security1)These critical technologies span areas of defense,space,robotics,energy,biotechnology,advanced materials,artificial intelligence,quantum technology,and the environment
298、 Western democracies are losing competitive ground in the global technological race:China has positioned itself as the worlds leadingscience and technology superpower In 37 out of the 44 critical technologies,China leads in terms of high-quality research output indicating that Chinas scholarly resea
299、rch accounts for the highest share of the top publications in a technological fieldField of technologyDefense,space,robotics&transportationTotal#of subsumed technologies644ranks 1stranks 2nd4/637/442/67/44ranks 1stranks 2nd2/67/44Advanced materials&manufacturing1212/120/120/129/12AI,computing&commun
300、ications107/103/103/107/10Biotechnology,gene technology&vaccines32/31/31/32/3Sensing,timing&navigation11/10/10/11/14/632/44Quantum43/41/41/43/4Energy&environment88/80/80/86/81)Database queries identified the relevant set of papers for each technology(2.2 million in total);ranking based on the top 10
301、%most highly cited research publications of the past five years on each of the 44 technologies;2)Most recent data as of March 2023Sources:ASPI;Roland BergerEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&Gover
302、nanceEnvironment&Resources6204020502060207020802090222160Artificial intelligence is seen as a powerful but also risky frontier technology Experts expect human-level AI within next 100 years2022 Expert Survey on Progress on AISources:AI Impacts;Our World in Data;Rolan
303、d Berger90%of experts80%chance5%probability expect with a 50%chance that unaided machines will perform better and more cheaply in every task than human workers within the next 100 years that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase in the next 30 years as a result of e
304、xisting high-level machine intelligence(HLMI)that the long-run effects of advanced AI on humanity will be extremely bad,e.g.human extinction While stating an exact date for the existence of human-level AI(i.e.AI that can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers)is near imposs
305、ible,a survey of experts has tracked and analyzed their views regarding AI with a view to the century ahead With the most recent advances in computing power and AI,experts have readjusted their estimates in the last few years;now,90%(2018:81%)of experts anticipate the existence of human-level AI wit
306、hin the next 100 years and 50%expect it even before 2061 AI experts stress especially the tremendous risks of ungoverned and rogue AI.In this survey,they have evaluateddisastrous long-run effects(such as human extinction)with a 5%probability When will unaided machines be able to accomplish every tas
307、k better and more cheaply than human workers?Each line represents the answer of one expertEach line represents the answer of one expertHalf of the experts gave a date before 20615%gave answers for dates later than 2160 and 1.1%said it will never existEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovati
308、on5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources6262We asked different AIs on their view of the future of AI and got some interesting answersWhat does the future of AI look like?Please answer in 3 sentences Sources:OpenAI;AskBr
309、ian;Google Bard AI;Roland Berger1.The future of AI looks incredibly promising,with continued advancements in machine learning,natural language processing,and computer vision2.AI will become increasingly integrated into our daily lives,impacting everything from healthcare and transportation to entert
310、ainment and education3.However,there are also concerns about the potential negative impacts of AI,including job displacement,privacy concerns,and bias in algorithms1.The future of AI is exciting and full of potential2.It promises to drastically improve the way we live and work by making tasks easier
311、,faster,and more efficient3.AI will be used in a wide range of applications,from healthcare to transportation,to create smarter and more efficient systems that can automate mundane tasks and allow us to focus on more important and meaningful work1.The future of AI looks bright,with the potential to
312、revolutionize many industries and aspects of our lives2.AI is already being used to automate tasks,improve efficiency,and make better decisions3.It is likely to continue to evolve and become even more powerful in the years to comeDid you know?OpenAIs ChatGPT3.5 is one of the fastest adopted technolo
313、gies,reaching 100 million users within 2 months after launch.By contrast,TikTok took 9 months to reach this milestoneOpen AIAskBrianBard AIEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&
314、Resources6363New technologies affect the relationship of humans and machines Having evolved greatly over past decades,more milestones lie aheadDevelopment of human-machine interaction Human-machine interaction(HMI)has been an area of research and innovation since the 1970s,when computers first began
315、 to be used in everyday life.Since then,progress in HMI technology has accelerated to meet the changing needs of users.Then,computers were large and expensive devices that were highly complex and difficult to use.To overcome this,early HMI technology focused on increasing the usability of computers,
316、e.g.by developing graphical user interfaces(GUIs)User interfaces as well as the interaction between human and machines have since become greatly simplified and accessible,e.g.through the adoption of touch screens and virtual assistants such as Apples Siri or AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT.Today,hu
317、mans interact with a vast number of smart devices connected to the Internet such as heating or lighting systems.The Internet of Things(IoT)has arrived and is likely to gain further importance in the future,e.g.in Smart Cities where human-machine interaction will become ubiquitous In the future,biome
318、chanical enhancements,such as exoskeletons,will enhance human physical capability,personal robots will collaborate with people using language or non-verbal cues,affective computing can respond intelligently to natural human emotional feedback,and advanced tangible media will enable humans to remotel
319、y interact with others using all senses(and even with people no longer with us through means of tangible memories)The direct connection of human and machine(brain-machine interface)will not be science fiction for much longer either:research into bionic humans is already at an advanced stage.Plans al
320、so include to implant chips into peoples brains so that machines can be controlled with their minds(a danger,of course,lurks in the opposite direction).Globally,there are already thousands of people with microchips implanted in their hands,which an be used for paying,storing medical data or enabling
321、 access to password protected systems.The technology-savvy country Sweden has the largest share of such cyborgs1970s and beforeSystem hardware control1980s-1990sGraphical user interfaces2000sSmart phones,touch screensEarly 2020sAdvanced chatbots2010sGesture based,virtual assistants,virtual/augmented
322、 reality,smart devicesFuturePastAdvanced tangible mediaSmart CitiesBiomechanical enhancementsPersonal robotsAffective computingBrain-machine interfacesSources:MIT;The Economist;Roland BergerEconomics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machin
323、es 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources6464AI particularly touches the human-machine relationship There is a broad debate about risks and opportunities of AI and how to cope with them Open Letter 2023 Future of Life InstituteAI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pos
324、e profound risks to society and humanity().Advanced AI could represent a profound change in the history of life on Earth and should be planned for and managed with commensurate care and resources.Stuart RussellBerkeley UniversityThe algorithms dont care what opinions you have.They just care that you
325、re susceptible to stuff that they send.But of course,people do care.Selected expert views on AI Sources:Business Insider;BBC;Slate;Wired,Future of Life Insitute;Center for AI Safety;WEF;Twiter;Oxford Martin;Roland BergerNick BostromOxford University()consider a super intelligent agent that wanted to
326、 maximize the number of paperclips in existence().It might then want to eliminate humans to prevent us from switching it off.It might also want to use the atoms in our bodies to build more paperclips.Bill GatesBill and Melinda Gates FoundationJust as the world needs its brightest people focused on i
327、ts biggest problems,we will need to focus the worlds best AIs on its biggest problems.Sundar Pichai CEO of AlphabetAI is more profound than fire,electricity or anything we have done in the past.Geoffrey Hinton Godfather 1 of AII think we should continue to develop it AI because it could do wonderful
328、 things.But we should put equal effort into mitigating or preventing the possible bad consequences.”Tim Berners-LeeInventor of the World Wide WebAs long as human beings remain firmly in control of assets in the physical world,its going to be hard for a hostile AI to do too much damage.Yoshua BengioG
329、odfather 2 of AIIf they the AI systems are smarter than us,then its hard for us to stop these systems or to prevent damage.”Several AI experts,Statement on AI Risk Center for AI SafetyMitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as p
330、andemics and nuclear war.”Santiago Valderrama Machine Learning engineerAI will not replace you.A person using AI will.”Economics&BusinessHealth&Care Technology&Innovation5.1Value of InnovationFrontier Technologies5.2Humans&Machines 5.3People&SocietyPolitics&GovernanceEnvironment&Resources6565 which
331、can be summed up in a set of concerns and possible solutionsAI and the future of humans Selected concerns and solutionsSources:Pew Research;Business Insider;EDUCBA;BuiltIn;Vernor Vinge;Nick Bostrom;Slate;Roland BergerConcernsSolutionsHuman agencyIndividuals are experiencing a loss of control over th
332、eir livesLack of regulationðical principlesWithout proper(global)regulation and ethical principles AI is likely to engage in data abuse,social manipulation,or disregard human valuesJob lossAI-powered job automation may eradicate many,especially low skilled jobs causing greater economic division,p
333、otentially leading to social upheavalDependence lock-inReduction of individuals cognitive,social and survival skillsMayhemRogue AI minds,autonomous weapons,cyber-crime and-warfare;weaponized informationGlobal good is top priorityImprove human collaboration across borders and stakeholder groupsValue-based systemDevelop policies to assure AI will be directed at humanness and common goodSafety protoc