1、5G in Russia: a local and global view on the way forward Copyright 2019 GSM Association 2 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD This report has been produced through collaboration between GSMA Intelligence, Analytical Center for the Government of Russian Federation and LTE Union.

2、The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with nearly 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent indust

3、ry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is th

4、e definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of indust

5、ry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The d

6、ata is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation provides on-

7、demand information analytics and expert support to the Government of the Russian Federation on the key issues of the socio-economic development of the country. Since 2013 the Analytical Center has been rated in the annual Global Go To Think Tank rating (compiled by the University of Pennsylvania in

8、the USA) among the best think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe and among the Top Social Policy Think Tanks, Think Tanks to Watch, and the Best Government Affiliated Think Tanks. According to the Government of the Russian Federations Resolution, the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russ

9、ian Federation has been tasked with performing the functions of the project management office for the implementation of the Digital Economy of the Russian Federation Program. Read more at http:/ac.gov.ru https:/digital.ac.gov.ru/ LTE Union is a nonprofit organization, with the mission to foster mobi

10、le network deployment within the Russian Federation by promoting of advanced technologies, enabling legislation and access to new spectrum bands for mobile networks. Currently, the LTE Union includes VimpelCom PJSC, MegaFon PJSC, MTS PJSC and T2 Mobile LLC. Executive Director of the LTE Union is Gul

11、nara Khasyanova. Read more at http:/lteunion.ru/ 3 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD Executive summary 1) Global perspective on 5G 1.1 Rapid progress on standards facilitates early deployments 1.2 5G an increasing reality around the world 1.3 Global view on 5G use cases 1.4 5G

12、 contributing to economic growth 1.5 The role of national 5G plans 2) Russian market perspective 2.1 A mature market now moving to 4G 2.2 5G trials in Russia 2.3 The outlook for 5G adoption in Russia 2.4 5G use cases in Russia: the consumer perspective 2.5 5G use cases in Russia: the enterprise pers

13、pective 3) Delivering an enabling policy environment for 5G 3.1 The GSMAs global perspective on policy for the 5G era 3.2 Russian market policy considerations Contents 4 6 6 7 10 13 14 15 15 18 19 20 21 23 23 24 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD 4 | Executive summary Executive

14、 summary Over the last 30 years, the global mobile industry has proven its ability to connect and transform society through the development and deployment of 2G, 3G and more recently 4G networks across the globe. 5G is set to build on these successes by delivering a platform that not only enhances e

15、xisting services but also enables new business models and use cases. GSMA Intelligence expects commercial 5G networks to be widely deployed in all regions from 2020, by which point the 5G era will have truly started. Russia is a relatively mature mobile market, with a unique subscriber penetration r

16、ate of 89% at the end of 2018 a figure that will remain broadly unchanged to 2025. Mobile users in Russia are already significant consumers of mobile data, with data volumes set to grow further as the adoption of smartphones increases. As a result of significant operator investments in LTE networks,

17、 the country is now rapidly migrating to 4G. 4G as a proportion of total connections is set to more than double over the next five years to reach two-thirds of the total by 2023. A stabilisation in competitive pressures and ongoing strong growth in data traffic are driving a near-term improvement in

18、 the Russian industry revenue trend, but the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Overall ARPU levels remain low by developed market standards, highlighting the need for operators to build new revenue streams. 5G offers new use cases in both the consumer and enterprise markets, as well as lower oper

19、ating costs both potential positives for Russian operators as they look to improve financial performance. While Russia is not among the first wave of countries to launch 5G, there is a growing focus within the industry and among relevant policy-makers on the importance of 5G to the sector and broade

20、r economy. Forecasts for 5G adoption in Russia suggest commercial deployments from 2020, with the total 5G base set to reach 46 million by 2025, equivalent to 20% of connections. On this forecast, Russia would be above the global average but trailing leading 5G markets such as the US, South Korea an

21、d China. 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD 5 Executive summary | 5G is widely viewed in Russia as a necessity for the creation of a new and more competitive national economy. The implementation of 5G networks should be considered by regulators not as just a new technical advan

22、cement in telecoms but as a condition for delivering the digital economy and driving the transformation of industries. With such a mindset, the regulation of the mobile industry should shift from controlling and supervising the industry to fostering its development. A key factor in the successful de

23、ployment and operation of 5G networks is the availability of a state-supported comprehensive development plan for 5G communications. To ensure that Russia is able to realise the promise of 5G and the broader digital economy, this report includes a number of policy recommendations to facilitate timel

24、y deployment of 5G networks in Russia. The recommendations cover the following areas: Creating an innovation ecosystem for developing 5G, potentially with state support, to enable the development of new services. Providing new spectrum: 5G requires significant amounts of new spectrum, provided under

25、 the right conditions and in a timely manner. Deployment procedures and provisions: it is important for regulators to consider new approaches to network development to allow for rapid and efficient 5G rollouts. A move from permission-based authorisations to notification procedures might provide an i

26、mportant condition to allow operators to speed up 5G development. Wireless emissions standards: to keep up with the development of 4G and 5G networks, there is a need to revise wireless radiation limitation standards towards the higher allowances based on international standards, already proven thro

27、ugh 20 years of application in many countries. The safety of these standards for consumers has been reviewed by the appropriate international bodies. Network architecture regulation: to avoid delaying the introduction of 5G networks, network regulations should be updated to reflect the deployment of

28、 new technologies such as virtualised nodes and more software- orientated networks, with new compliance procedures developed at a national level based on testing software capabilities rather than hardware measurements. Network neutrality and data regulation: legislation covering personal or IoT data

29、 should be balanced to address the need to protect sensitive data but also to enable new innovative services based on the use of big data. Encouraging investments for 5G networks: the main objective of government and policy-makers should be to create a supportive environment for 5G investments. 6 5G

30、 IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD | Global perspective on 5G The standardisation roadmap from the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) established the timeline for when different parts of 5G technology will be ready for deployment. The accelerated schedule agreed to by the

31、3GPP in 2017 has allowed operators around the globe to bring forward their 5G commercial launch plans. Non-standalone 5G new radio (NSA 5G NR) specifications were officially approved in December 2017, while the standalone (SA) version was approved in June 2018, which represented the full 3GPP Releas

32、e 15. The relatively rapid agreement of 5G specifications (at least compared to earlier generations) has also allowed hardware vendors, chipset manufacturers and other suppliers to make progress with their tests, and to build and design components that implement the 5G NR specifications while awaiti

33、ng final standardisation across all NSA and SA models. The focus of future 5G specifications will be on additional use cases, including industrial IoT solutions such as robotics and telepresence systems. This covers 3GPP Release 16 for ultra-reliable and low-latency communications (URLLC); the goal

34、is that this should be completed by December 2019. 1 Global perspective on 5G 1.1 Rapid progress on standards facilitates early deployments 7 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD Global perspective on 5G | 1.2 5G an increasing reality around the world Over the last 30 years, the

35、mobile industry has demonstrated its ability to connect and transform society through the development of previous network generations, with 2G, 3G and more recently 4G networks deployed across the globe. 5G is set to build on these successes by delivering a platform that not only enhances existing s

36、ervices, but enables new business models and use cases to emerge. GSMA Intelligence expects commercial 5G networks to be widely deployed in all regions from 2020, by which point the 5G era will have truly started. 2017 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 201820192020 RELEASE 15, 5G PHASE 1 RELEASE 16, 5G P

37、HASE 2 Rel-14, St.3 Release 14 Rel-15, St.2 Rel-15, St.3 Rel-15 ASN.1 Rel-15, St.1 Rel-16, St.2 Rel-16, St.3 Rel-16, ASN.1 Rel-16, St.1 Extensions 5G Phase 1 New Radio access New core network (service based architecture for CP) SA scenario 2, NSA scenario 3 Cloud native RAN Scenarios 4 and 7 5G Phas

38、e 2 Radio enhancements Service based architecture enhancements Trusted non-3GPP access Better network slicing Ultra reliable low latency services Freeze of Non-standalone (NSA) radio Figure 1 The 3GPP roadmap for Release 15 and 16 Source: GSMA 8 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWA

39、RD | Global perspective on 5G There have already been extensive 5G trials; some 147 operators across 72 markets have undertaken trials as of the end of March 2019. The focus now is increasingly shifting to commercial launches. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, 81 operators from 52 markets acr

40、oss the world have announced plans to launch mobile 5G services. After the initial (yet limited) launches by the three South Korean operators in late 2018, the second quarter is expected to see commercial launches in a number of markets including the US, Australia, Switzerland and several Gulf Coope

41、ration Council (GCC) states. From 1% of the total global connections base at the end of 2020, 5G adoption is forecast to accelerate rapidly and reach 16% of total connections by the end of 2025, by which time there will be 1.4 billion 5G connections globally. At a regional level, North America will

42、have by some way the highest level of 5G adoption, with almost half the connections base running 5G services by 2025. At a country level, the outlook is more nuanced: for example, South Korea is set to have the highest adoption rate at almost 60% of connections by 2025, with the US on 50%. Figure 2

43、The 5G era will begin fully from 2020 Source: GSMA Intelligence Over 3 billion 4G takes the lead 1.35 billion 5G connections Early 5G commercial launches across many markets 5 billion Nearly 6 billion 5 billion MOBILE INTERNET USERS TECHNOLOGY UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS 20025 9 5G IN RUSSI

44、A: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD Global perspective on 5G | Figure 3 5G global adoption forecasts Figure 4 5G adoption by region in 2025 5G connections (million) 200225 Percentage of total connections base 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,600 1,400 1,200 10% 15% 20% 5% 0%

45、 Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence SSA MENA LatAm CIS Global Asia Pacifi c Europe North America 0%10%20%30%50%40% 5G as a percentage of total connections base 10 5G IN RUSSIA: A LOCAL AND GLOBAL VIEW ON THE WAY FORWARD | Global perspective on 5G Handset availability will play a key

46、 role in near-term 5G adoption levels. On a positive note, the first 5G-compatible smartphones are now coming to market and it is expected that the range of devices will expand significantly over the next year. For example, six compatible handsets were announced at MWC19 Barcelona in 2019, while Viv

47、o (Apex 2019) and Samsung (Galaxy S10 5G, Galaxy Fold) unveiled phones ahead of the event. To date, 5G devices have been characterised by high retail prices and limited support for new frequency bands, though these issues should be addressed as more vendors launch devices and as the technology begin

48、s to mature. By the end of 2020, all the main Android handset manufacturers will have launched 5G-capable smartphones that support the major frequency bands. 1.3 Global view on 5G use cases 5G will support a broad range of new use cases in addition to evolving current use cases supported by previous

49、 mobile generations. The business opportunities for operators that will be supported in the 5G era are enhanced along product and customer dimensions, as shown in Figure 5. Operators will need to evolve their current business models while tapping into new opportunities enabled by a more efficient technological framework. The evolutionary consideration is crucial to ensure that customers continue to enjoy the services they do today. While operators have historically focused on use cases that appeal to the mass market,