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1、Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and OutreachTRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021PVPSREPORT IEA PVPS T1-41:2021PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMMEAUTHORS Main Authors:Gatan Masson(Becquerel Institute),Izumi Kaizuka(RTS Corporation).Analysis:Izumi Kaizuka(RTS Corporation),E.
2、Bosch,G.Masson(Becquerel Institute),Johan Lindahl(Becquerel Institute Sweden),Eddy Blokken(SERIS).Data:IEA PVPS Reporting Countries,Becquerel Institute(BE),RTS Corporation(JP)and Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau(EU-JRC),For the non-IEA PVPS countries UNEF(ES).For the other European Union countries:EU-JRC.For fl
3、oating PV data:SERIS(SG).For the non-IEA PVPS countries:BSW,UNEF.Editor:G.Masson,IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent.Design:Onehemisphere,Sweden,contactonehemisphere.se DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency(IEA)but is functionally and legally auto
4、nomous.Views,findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries.Data are valid at the date of
5、 publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date.COVER IMAGE Manono,RDC.Enerdeal ISBN 978-3-907281-28-4:Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2021.Tasks,that may be research projects or activity areas.This report has been prepared under Task 1,which d
6、eals with market and industry analysis,strategic research and facilitates the exchange and dissemination of information arising from the overall IEA PVPS Programme.The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,
7、Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,the Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,South Africa,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,and the United States of America.The European Commission,Solar Power Europe,the Smart Electric Power Alliance(SEPA),the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Copper Alliance are
8、also members.Visit us at:www.iea-pvps.org The International Energy Agency(IEA),founded in 1974,is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD).The Technology Collaboration Programme(TCP)was created with a belief that the future of energy
9、security and sustainability starts with global collaboration.The programme is made up of thousands of experts across government,academia,and industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies.The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme(IEA PVPS)is on
10、e of the TCPs within the IEA and was established in 1993.The mission of the programme is to“enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.”In order to achieve this,the Programmes
11、 participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications.The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee,comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member,which designates distinct WHAT IS IEA PVPS TCP?IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLT
12、AIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /3IEA PVPS TRENDS 2021 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONSsystem prices varies,depending on the willingness of the relevant national PV industry to provide data.This report presents the results of the 25th international survey.It provides an overview of PV power systems applications,m
13、arkets and production in the reporting countries and elsewhere at the end of 2020 and analyses trends in the implementation of PV power systems between 1992 and 2020.Key data for this publication were drawn mostly from national survey reports and information summaries,which were supplied by represen
14、tatives from each of the reporting countries.Information from the countries outside IEA PVPS are drawn from a variety of sources and,while every attempt is made to ensure their accuracy,the validity of some of these data cannot be assured with the same level of confidence as for IEA PVPS member coun
15、tries.The Trends reports objective is to present and interpret developments in the PV power systems market and the evolving applications for these products within this market.These trends are analysed in the context of the business,policy and nontechnical environment in the reporting countries.This
16、report is prepared to assist those who are responsible for developing the strategies of businesses and public authorities,and to support the development of medium-term plans for electricity utilities and other providers of energy services.It also provides guidance to government officials responsible
17、 for setting energy policy and preparing national energy plans.The scope of the report is limited to PV applications with a rated power of 40 W or more.National data supplied are as accurate as possible at the time of publication.Data accuracy on production levels and REPORT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVESThis
18、 report has been prepared under the supervision by Task 1 participants.A special thanks to all of them.The report authors also gratefully acknowledge special support of Eddy Blokken from SERIS.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTIEA PVPSIEA PVPS TRENDS 2021 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONSIEA PVPSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOL
19、TAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /4VIPV is becoming a market reality.PV is expected to develop everywhere it makes economic sense:from infrastructure to fields,from water to roads,roofs to faades,in deserts and urban areas,on cars,buses,trucks and planes.This evolution has been followed by the IEA PVPS progra
20、m for years with Task 15 focusing on BIPV and Task 17 exploring VIPV for instance.Such developments are visible in market and industry numbers:year after year,the order of magnitude of installations and industrial capacities is increasing and is now in the multi-hundreds of GW range.Market levels ar
21、e increasing on all continents:from GW-scale market number is increasing as well as the number of countries importing PV for a burgeoning local market:6 GW have been installed in 2020 in the 150 countries not reporting officially PV installations.This number is rising fast and has almost doubled com
22、pared to the last year.This reflects the health of the PV fundamentals and especially its scalability and competitiveness and will lead to further major levels of deployment in the coming years.In summary,2020 was a special year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its trade and industrial disruptions.B
23、ut PV continued its development and reaches now all continents.In 2021,the pace accelerated,together with major value chain issues that reflect the growing share of PV in the energy but also the materials sector.The more PV develops,the more it will impact all the value chains it depends on.This ref
24、lects the general belief in this industry that the solar PV era is just about to begin.And the need for continuing researching how to properly integrate PV into the energy sector at large.From a niche market for space and off-grid applications two decades ago,PV is now a key tool to fight climate ch
25、ange and electrify the world:based on the installed capacity at the end of 2020,CO2 savings resulting PV existing installations reached 860 million tonnes of CO2,a record-breaking level.More will be needed but the IEA PVPS program is proud of continuing supporting one of the key options to decarboni
26、ze the entire energy sector.2020 achieved unprecedented levels of PV installations globally.With 145 GWdc installed in 2020,this was again a record-breaking year,despite the pandemic.And more is expected in 2021.This remarkable result comes from years of fine-tuning of policies,upgraded business mod
27、els and improved competitiveness of PV systems.In 2021,for the first time,the IEA recognised“solar is the new king of energy markets”offering“some of the lowest cost of energy we have ever seen”.The record levels achieved in terms of prices of electricity,position PV as the leading renewable energy
28、for decarbonization of the energy sector.Its potential now spans through building heating and cooling,transport and industrial applications.It remains difficult to extrapolate the tremendous potential of a source of electricity which has become so competitive.In 2020,the pandemic hasnt stopped PV de
29、velopment.It is even more complicated to estimate whether it has even reduced its global deployment.In 2021,supply chain difficulties could reduce the global market growth,but the narrative remains the same:PV is developing fast,on all continents.This report highlights the key trends in PV developme
30、nt and the ever-changing policy landscape.The more PV develops and captures a greater share of power generation,new challenges arise.The latest example is the rise of energy communities that trigger new questions about grid management,grid costs,and how to price a fair use of the grid by distributed
31、 embedded producers and consumers.Many questions that pre-existed,but didnt impact much the ecosystem,now are facing a new reality of higher PV penetration.Net-metering that used to be the simplest way to support PV development on buildings,is now being replaced progressively by self-consumption pol
32、icies.And this is just one example out of many.The diversity of applications is increasing fast:floating PV has reached 3 GW of total capacity,BIPV is growing,agricultural PV is experiencing a major push from several key PVPS countries and FOREWORDGatan Gatan Masson Masson Operating Agent Task 1 IEA
33、 PVPS ProgrammeDaniel Daniel MugnierMugnier Chairman IEA PVPS ProgrammeIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /5IEA PVPS TRENDS 2021 IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONSFOREWORD4 1.INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY7 PV TECHNOLOGY7 PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS8 METHODOLOGY FOR TH
34、E MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS9 2.PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS10 THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY10 PV MARKET SEGMENTS17 EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS20 PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION23 THE AMERICAS24 ASIA-PACIFIC24 EUROPE26 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA28 3.POLICY FRAMEWORK31 PV MARKET DRIVERS32 THE SUP
35、PORT SCHEMES34 FINANCING OF SUPPORT SCHEMES38 SOFT COSTS38 OWNERSHIP OF PV PLANTS39 GRID INTEGRATION39 SUSTAINABLE BUILDING REQUIREMENTS&BIPV40 ELECTRICITY STORAGE41 4.TRENDS IN THE PV INDUSTRY42 THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR42 THE DOWNSTREAM SECTOR51 5.SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV53 VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY53
36、 EMPLOYMENT IN PV57 PV FOR SOCIAL POLICIES58 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION59 6.COMPETITIVENESS OF PV ELECTRICITY IN 202061 MODULE PRICES61 SYSTEM PRICES64 COST OF PV ELECTRICITY66 7.PV IN THE ENERGY SECTOR70 PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION70 PV PENETRATION71 PV INTEGRATION AND SECTOR COUPLING73 ANNEXES75 LIST
37、 OF FIGURES78 LIST OF TABLES79 TABLE OF CONTENTSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /6TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS /2021PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME WWW.IEA-PVPS.ORGSOURCE IEA PVPS AND OTHERS42 COUNTRIES REACHED AT LEAST 1 GWpIN 2020Share of PV in the global electricitiy
38、 demand in 2020 4%TOTAL BUSINESS VALUE IN PV SECTOR IN 2020$160 BILLION PV CONTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND 19 COUNTRIES INSTALLED AT LEAST 1 GWpIN 2020CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSGLOBAL PVCAPACITY END OF 2020ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2020(GW)145GW622GW767GW(2020)GLOBAL PV CAPACITYEND OF 2019(GW)800
39、W 1 WPV penetration(W/capita)PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2020 YEARLY PV INSTALLATION,PV PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITY 0350GW20000192020Total production capacityTotal productionPV installationsPV MARKETS IN 2020TOP5CHINAVIETNAMUSAJAPANE
40、UPV POWER PER CAPITA 1.AUSTRALIA(810 Wp)2.GERMANY(648 Wp)3.JAPAN(571 Wp)48,0 GW11,1 GW19,7 GW8,7 GW19,8 GWmillions of tons of CO2 saving every year,860IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /7years,over 85%of the c-Si share.Multicrystalline silicon(mc-Si)cells,also called polycrystalline,
41、are formed with multicrystalline wafers,manufactured from a cast solidification process.They are still in production due to their lower production prices.Nevertheless,they are less efficient,with average conversion efficiency around 18%-21%in mass production(single-junction).Thin-film cells are form
42、ed by depositing extremely thin layers of photovoltaic semiconductor materials onto a backing material such as glass,stainless steel or plastic.III-V compound semiconductor PV cells are formed using materials such as Gallium Arsenide(GaAs)on Germanium(Ge)substrates and have high conversion efficienc
43、ies from 25%up to 30%(not concentrated).Due to their high cost,they are typically used in concentrated PV(CPV)systems with tracking systems or for space applications.Thin-film modules used to have lower conversion efficiencies than basic crystalline silicon technologies,but this has changed in recen
44、t years.They are potentially less expensive to manufacture than crystalline cells thanks to the reduced number of manufacturing steps from raw materials to modules,and to reduced energy demand.Thin-film materials commercially used are cadmium telluride(CdTe),and copper-indium-(gallium)-diselenide(CI
45、GS and CIS).Amorphous(a-Si)and micromorph silicon(-Si)used to have a significant market share but failed to follow both the price of crystalline silicon cells and the efficiency increase of other thin film technologies.Organic thin-film PV(OPV)cells use dye or organic semiconductors as the light-har
46、vesting active layer.This technology has created increasing interest and research over the last few years and is currently the fastest-advancing solar technology.Despite the low production costs,stable products are Photovoltaic(PV)devices convert light directly into electricity and should not be con
47、fused with other solar technologies such as concentrated solar power(CSP)or solar thermal for heating and cooling.The key components of a PV power system are various types of photovoltaic cells(often called solar cells)interconnected and encapsulated to form a photovoltaic module(the commercial prod
48、uct),the mounting structure for the module or array,the inverter(essential for grid-connected systems and required for most off-grid systems),the storage battery and charge controller(for off-grid systems but also increasingly for grid-connected ones).CELLS,MODULES AND SYSTEMS Photovoltaic cells rep
49、resent the smallest unit in a photovoltaic power producing device.Wafer sizes,and thus cell sizes have progressively increased,as it is commonly considered by industrial actors as an easy way to improve cell and modules wattage.Nowadays,wafer sizes range from 156,75 x 156,75 square mm(named M2)up to
50、 210 x 210 square mm(named M12).To this date,there is no standard in the wafer size.Nevertheless,M10 wafers(182 x 182 square mm)and M12 have gained a lot of traction in the last year.In general,cells can be classified as either wafer-based crystalline silicon c-Si(mono-and multi-crystalline),compoun
51、d semiconductor(thin-film),or organic.Currently,c-Si technologies account for more than 95%of the overall cell production.Monocrystalline PV cells,formed with wafers manufactured using a single crystal growth method,feature commercial efficiencies between 20%and 25%(single-junction).They have gained
52、 the biggest market share in recent PV TECHNOLOGY one INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY IOC/dam Morkcan be assembled in way that they fill multiple functions usually devoted to conventional building envelope solutions.Bifacial PV modules collect light on both sides of the panel.When mount
53、ed on a surface which albedo reflects enough light,the energy production increase is estimated to a maximum of 15%with structure,and possibly up to 30-35%with a single-axis system.Bifacial modules have a growing competitive advantage despite higher overall installation costs.Indeed,recent competitiv
54、e projects in desert areas boosted the market confidence in bifacial PV performance and production lines are increasingly moving towards bifacial modules.The additional factors affecting bifacial performance into their models are also better understood and integrated in the downstream industry.Bifac
55、ial PV panels have gained traction again in 2021 and are expected to take growing market shares in the coming years for utility-scale applications.Floating PV systems are mounted on a structure that floats on a water surface and can be associated with existing grid connections for instance in the ca
56、se of dam vicinity.The development of floating PV on man-made water areas is a solution to land scarcity in high population density areas and can be combined with hydropower.Agricultural PV combine crops and energy production on the same site.The sharing of light between these two types of productio
57、n potentially allows a higher crop yield,depending on the climate and the selection of the crop variety and can even be mutually beneficial in some cases,as the water which evaporates from the crops can contribute to a reduction of PV modules operating temperature.PV thermal hybrid solar installatio
58、ns(PVT)combine a solar module with a solar thermal collector,thereby converting sunlight into electricity and capturing the remaining waste heat from the PV module to produce hot water or feed the central heating system.It also allows to reduce the operating temperature of the modules,which benefits
59、 the global performances of the system.VIPV or vehicle integrated PV.The integration of highly efficient solar cells into the shell of the vehicles allow for emissions reductions in the mobility sector.The solar cell technological developments allow to meet both aesthetic expectations for car design
60、 and technical requirements such as lightweight and resistance to load.VAPV relates to the use of PV modules on vehicles without integration.Various Solar Home Sytems(SHS)or pico PV systems have experienced significant development in the last few years,combining the use of efficient lights(mostly LE
61、Ds)with charge controllers and batteries.With a small PV panel of only a few watts,essential services can be provided,such as lighting,phone charging and powering a radio or a small computer.Expandable versions of solar pico PV systems have entered the market and enable starting with a small kit and
62、 adding extra loads later.They are mainly used for off-grid basic electrification,mainly in developing countries.not yet available for the market,nevertheless development and demonstration activities are underway.Tandem cells based on perovskites are researched as well,with either a crystalline sili
63、con base or a thin film base and could hit the market sooner than pure perovskites products.In 2021,perovskite solar cell achieved 28.0%efficiencies in silicon-based tandem and 23.26%efficiencies in CIGS-based tandems.Photovoltaic modules are typically rated from 290 W to 600 W,depending on the tech
64、nology and the size.Specialized products for building integrated PV systems(BIPV)exist,sometimes with higher nominal power due to their larger sizes.Crystalline silicon modules consist of individual PV cells connected and encapsulated between a transparent front,usually glass,and a backing material,
65、usually plastic or glass.Thin-film modules encapsulate PV cells formed into a single substrate,in a flexible or fixed module,with transparent plastic or glass as the front material.Their efficiency ranges between 9%(OPV),10%(a-Si),17%(CIGS and CIS),19%(CdTe),25%GaAs(non-concentrated)and above 40%for
66、 some CPV modules.A PV system consists of one or several PV modules,connected to either an electricity network(grid-connected PV)or to a series of loads(off-grid).It comprises various electric devices aiming at adapting the electricity output of the module(s)to the standards of the network or the lo
67、ad:inverters,charge controllers or batteries.A wide range of mounting structures has been developed especially for BIPV;including PV facades,sloped and flat roof mountings,integrated(opaque or semi-transparent)glass-glass modules and PV tiles.Single or two-axis tracking systems have recently become
68、more and more attractive for ground-mounted systems,particularly for PV utilization in countries with a high share of direct irradiation.By using such systems,the energy yield can typically be increased by 10-20%for single axis trackers and 20-30%for double axis trackers compared with fixed systems.
69、When considering distributed PV systems,it is necessary to distinguish BAPV(building applied photovoltaics)and BIPV(buildings integrated photovoltaics)systems.BAPV refers to PV systems installed on an existing building while BIPV imposes to replace conventional building materials by some which inclu
70、de PV cells.Amongst BIPV solutions,PV tiles,or PV shingles,are typically small,rectangular solar panels that can be installed alongside conventional tiles or slates using a traditional racking system used for this type of building product.BIPV products can take various shapes,colours and be manufact
71、ured using various materials,although a vast majority use glass on both sides.They CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGYPV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS PV TECHNOLOGY/CONTINUED 1 Source:https:/www.nrel.gov/pv/module-efficiency.htmlIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021
72、 /8CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGYGRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS In grid-connected PV systems,an inverter is used to convert electricity from direct current(DC)as produced by the PV array to alternating current(AC)that is then supplied to the electricity network.The typical weighte
73、d conversion efficiency is in the range of 95%to 99%.Most inverters incorporate a Maximum Power Point Tracker(MPPT),which continuously adjusts the load impedance to provide the maximum power from the PV array.One inverter can be used for the whole array or separate inverters may be used for each str
74、ing of modules.PV modules with integrated inverters,usually referred to as“AC modules”,can be directly connected to the electricity network(where approved by network operators),they offer better partial shading management and installation flexibility.Similarly,micro-inverters,connected to up to four
75、 panels also exist,despite their higher initial cost,they present some advantages where array sizes are small and maximal performance is to be achieved.Grid-connected distributed PV systems are installed to provide power to a grid-connected customer or directly to the electricity network,more specif
76、ically the distribution network.Such systems may be on,or integrated into,the customers premises often on the demand side of the electricity meter,on residential,commercial or industrial buildings,or simply in the built environment on motorway sound-barriers,etc.Size is not a determining feature whi
77、le a 1 MW PV system on a rooftop may be large by PV standards,this is not the case for other forms of distributed generation.Grid-connected centralized PV systems perform the functions of centralized power stations.The power supplied by such a system is physically not associated with an electricity
78、customer,and the system is not located to specifically perform functions on the electricity network other than the supply of bulk power.These systems are typically ground-mounted and functioning independently of any nearby development.Hybrid systems combine the advantages of PV and diesel generator
79、in mini grids.They allow mitigating fuel price increases,deliver operating cost reductions,and offer higher service quality than traditional single-source generation systems.The combining of technologies provides new possibilities to provide a reliable and cost-effective power source in remote place
80、s such as for telecom base stations for instance.Large-scale hybrids can be used for large cities powered today by diesel generators and have been seen,for instance in central Africa,often in combination with battery storage.OFF-GRID PV SYSTEMS For off-grid systems,a storage battery is required to p
81、rovide energy during low-light periods.Nearly all batteries used for PV systems are of the deep discharge lead-acid type.Other types of batteries(e.g.NiCad,NiMH,Li-Ion)are also suitable and have the advantage that they cannot be overcharged or deep-discharged.The lifetime of a battery varies,dependi
82、ng on the operating regime and conditions,but is typically between 5 and 10 years even if progresses are seen in that field.A charge controller(or regulator)is used to maintain the battery at the highest possible state of charge(SOC)and provide the user with the required quantity of electricity whil
83、e protecting the battery from deep discharge or overcharging.Some charge controllers also have integrated MPP trackers to maximize the PV electricity generated.If there is a requirement for AC electricity,a“stand-alone inverter”can supply conventional AC appliances.Off-grid domestic systems provide
84、electricity to households and villages that are not connected to the utility electricity network.They provide electricity for lighting,refrigeration and other low power loads,have been installed worldwide and are increasingly the most competitive technology to meet the energy demands of off-grid com
85、munities.Off-grid non-domestic installations were the first commercial application for terrestrial PV systems.They provide power for a wide range of applications,such as telecommunications,water pumping,vaccine refrigeration and navigational aids.These are applications where small amounts of electri
86、city have a high value,thus making PV commercially cost competitive with other small generating sources.This report counts all PV installations,both grid-connected and reported off-grid installations.By convention,the numbers reported refer to the nominal power of PV systems installed.These are expr
87、essed in W(or Wp).Some countries are reporting the power output of the PV inverter(device converting DC power from the PV system into AC electricity compatible with standard electricity networks).The difference between the standard DC Power(in Wp)and the AC power can range from as little as 5%(conve
88、rsion losses)to as much as 40%(for instance some grid regulations limit output to as little as 65%of the peak power from the PV system,but also higher DC/AC ratios reflect the evolution of utility-scale PV systems).Conversion of AC data has been made when necessary,to calculate the most precise inst
89、allation numbers every year.Global data should be considered as indications rather than exact statistics.Data from countries outside of the IEA PVPS network have been obtained through different sources,some of them based on trade statistics.As an increasing share of the global installed PV capacity
90、is attaining a certain lifetime-the very first waves of installations dating back to the nineties-performance losses and decommissioning must be considered to calculate the PV capacity and PV production.For this report,the PV penetration was estimated with the most recent global data about the PV in
91、stalled capacity,the average theoretical PV production and the electricity demand based.In general,PV penetration is amongst one of the best indicators to reflect the market dynamics in a specific country or region.If a global PV penetration level does not reflect the regional disparities,it gives a
92、n indication about the ability of the technology to keep up with the global demand growth.Hence,regarding climate goals for instance,the PV penetration is a better indicator than the absolute market growth.METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLI
93、CATIONS 2021 /9IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /10At the end of 2020,the global PV installed capacity represented 767 GW of cumulative PV installations.Presently it appears that 145 GW represented the minimum capacity installed during 2020 with a reasonably firm level of certainty.
94、This level is the highest ever recorded for PV installations,despite the pandemic related perturbations which might have delayed market development in some countries.The real impact of the pandemic is difficult to estimate,since the delays observed in the first part of the year were sometimes compen
95、sated in the second part.It seems reasonable that some projects might have been delayed.The group of IEA PVPS countries represented 107,7 GW of the total installed capacity.The IEA PVPS participating countries in 2020 are Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Is
96、rael,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,the Netherlands,Norway,Portugal,South Africa,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,and the United States of America.The other key markets that have been considered and which are not part of the IEA PVPS Programme,represented a total Since the early b
97、eginnings of the PV market development,over 767 GW of PV plants have been installed globally,of which around 70%has been installed over the last five years.Over the years,a growing number of markets started to contribute to global PV installations,and the year 2020 closed with a record number of new
98、 countries installing significant PV numbers.A large majority of PV installations are grid-connected and include an inverter which converts the variable direct current(DC)output of solar modules into alternating current(AC)to be injected into the electrical grid.PV installation data is reported in D
99、C by default in this report(see also Chapter 1).When countries are reporting officially in AC,this report converts in DC to maintain coherency.When official reporting is in AC,announced capacities are mentioned as MWac or MWdc in this report.By default,MW implies capacities mentioned in DC.For more
100、information on registering PV installations,download the IEA PVPS report on registering PV installations published recently.two PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSTHE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY Download the“Data Model for PV Systems”report:Floating PV Plants in France AKUOGlobal PV installed capacity(GW)
101、+30%YoY growth IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /11CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS13,9 GW,Ukraine with 6,5 GW,Greece with 3,4 GW,the Czech Republic with 2,0 GW installed,Romania with 1,5 GW,Poland with 3,9 GW and Bulgaria almost 1,2 GW.The other major countries that accounted
102、 for the highest cumulative installations at the end of 2020 and that are not part of the IEA PVPS programme are:Brazil with 7,5 GW,and Taiwan with 6 GW.Numerous cumulative capacity of 148,2 GW at the end of 2020.Amongst them,India covered around one third of that capacity with 47 GW.Vietnam reached
103、 16,5 GW after two years of massive PV development.The remaining part of PV capacities is mainly located in Europe and partly related to historical installations as well as to the contribution of emerging markets:UK with almost SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.1:EVOLUTION OF CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLATIO
104、NS 0GW2000019202039,270,299,8137,4177,3227,7304,4407,1511,3622,0767,2IEA PVPS countriesOther countries050060070080070 277 312 276767SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.2:EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS 0204060800GWJapanUSAOther countriesOther I
105、EA PVPS countriesChinaIndiaEuropean Union2000019202016,731,029,637,540,050,376,7102,7104,2110,7145,2IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /12CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSEVOLUTION OF PV ANNUAL INSTALLATIONS The IEA PVPS countries installed at lea
106、st 107 GW in 2020.While they are more difficult to track with a high level of certainty,installations in non-IEA PVPS countries contributed an estimated amount of 38 GW.The noteworthy trend of 2020 is the growth of the global PV market despite the pandemic which could have delayed market development
107、 in some countries.As in 2019,the rise of emerging markets contributed to this market growth in 2020.For the eighth year in a row,China was in first place and installed more than 48 GW in 2020,according to Chinas National Energy Administration;an installation level that equated and overpassed the le
108、vels reached in the country in 2017 and 2018.The total installed capacity in China reached 253,6 GW,and by that the country kept its market leader position in terms of total installed capacity.The Chinese market represented 33%of the global installation in 2020.countries all over the world have star
109、ted to deploy PV but few have yet reached a significant development level in terms of cumulative installed capacity outside the ones mentioned above.New developments occurred in Africa(Egypt,South Africa)and in the Middle East(UAE)which led to GW-scale installation levels:4,2 in South Africa,2,8 in
110、the UAE and 3,1 in Egypt for instance.PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA In just a few years,Australia has reached the highest installed PV capacity per inhabitant with 810 W/cap.Germany is second with 648 W/cap.Japan ties with the Netherlands in third position with 571 W/cap.Belgium comes in at the 5th plac
111、e with 523 W/cap,followed by Italy(365 W/cap).Switzerland and Malta come next with respectively 343 and 324 W/cap.Greece and Korea are closing the top 10 with 316 and 306 W/cap.500 W represents the power of a large PV panel.THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.3
112、:PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2020800 W 1 WPV penetration(W/capita)Australia has reached the highest installed PV capacity per inhabitant with 810 W/cap.Annual PV installations(GW)+31%YoY growth IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /13CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSSecond was the
113、 European Union which experienced growth for the third year in a row with 19,8 GW,coming closer to the 23,2 GW recorded in 2011.Germany(4,9 GW),the Netherlands(3 GW)and Spain(3,5 GW)were the key markets this year,followed by Poland,France,Belgium,and several others.Third was United States with 19,7
114、GW installed,a significant growth compared to 2018 and 2019,marking 2020 the largest single year increase in installations in the U.S.Both the utility sector installations and the residential market increased over 2019 installation levels.At the end of 2020,the U.S.reached 95 GW of cumulative instal
115、led capacity.Vietnam was in fourth place with 11,1 GW installed,out of which a large part was installed as distributed PV plants.For the second year in a row,while levels reached in two years are important,the countrys appetite for PV has led to high development levels which highlight both the need
116、for market control and positively,the ability to rapidly deploy massive PV capacities.The market in Japan is rather stable as the installations slightly increased to 8,7 GW in 2020,which is still below the record level of 10,8 GW in 2015.Together,these five leading individual or block of countries r
117、epresented around 75%of all installations recorded in 2020,a level comparable to the 73%in 2018 but higher than 2019.In terms of cumulative installed capacity,these countries represent 75%of the global capacity.This shows that the global PV market concentration is again increasing,with new markets c
118、ontributing proportionally less to global installation numbers than established ones.Behind the top 5,India installed 4,4 GW.The official number has been recalculated based on official AC data using IEA PVPS assumptions on AC-DC ratio.The cumulative installed capacity is 47 GWdc at the end of 2020.A
119、ustralia installed 4,5 GW in 2020,slightly below the 4,9 GW of 2019:a tremendous level given the countrys population.For several years the country has been experiencing a boom in utility-scale applications together with a robust demand for distributed PV systems.The total installed PV capacity reach
120、ed 20,8 GW at the end of 2020.Korea installed 4,1 GW in 2020,the highest level of installations ever in the country,with an important share of utility-scale plants.Korea is one key industrial actor in the PV sector,with several key players such as Hanwha.Brazils position in the top 10 countries for
121、PV installations comes from 2,9 GW installed in 2020,also the highest ever level for the country.After years of limited PV market development,Brazil appears now as one of the key global players,with a potential much higher than the level reached until now.SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.4:EVOLUTION
122、OF MARKET SHARE OF TOP COUNTRIES020406080100%2000020Top 5 Global PV Markets1st Global PV MarketTop 10 Global PV Markets31%27%29%27%30%45%51%42%26%33%77%68%72%77%78%83%84%73%57%64%91%84%86%88%88%89%91%86%75%77%CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN P
123、HOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /14In the tenth position comes Taiwan where PV installations finally advanced in 2020 after some years of slow development.In total around 1,7 GW were installed.Together,these 10 markets cover around 85%of the 2020 annual world market,a sign that the growth of the globa
124、l PV market has been driven by a limited number of countries again,however less than in previous years as the remaining markets are starting to contribute more significantly.Market concentration has been fuelling fears for the markets stability in the past,if one of the top three or top five markets
125、 would experience a slowdown.As shown in Figure 2.4,the market concentration steadily decreased in 2019 before growing again in 2020,mostly due to the growth of the Chinese PV market.However,as new markets are starting to emerge,the versatility of the global PV market minus China reduces,and therefo
126、re the risks.However,the size of the Chinese PV market continues to shape the evolution of the PV market as a whole.As we have seen in 2019,the global growth was limited due to the decline of the first market,which almost wiped out the global growth,while in 2020,Chinas installations maximized the g
127、lobal growth.The level of installation required to enter the top 10(country wise)have increased steadily since 2014:from 843 MW to 1,5 GW in 2018,and around 3 GW in 2019 and 2020.This reflects the global growth trend of the solar PV market,but also its variations from one year to another.THE GLOBAL
128、PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.RANKING20000201.ITALYGERMANYCHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINACHINA2.GERMANYITALYJAPANJAPANJAPANUSAINDIAINDIAUSAUSA3.CHINACHINAUSAUSAUSAJAPANUSAUSAINDIAVIETNAM4.USAUSAGERMANYUKUKINDIAJAPANJAPANJAPANJAPAN5.FRANCE
129、JAPANITALYGERMANYINDIAUKTURKEYAUSTRALIAVIETNAMGERMANY6.JAPANFRANCEUKSOUTH AFRICAGERMANYGERMANYGERMANYTURKEYAUSTRALIAAUSTRALIA7.BELGIUMAUSTRALIAROMANIAFRANCEKOREATHAILANDKOREAGERMANYSPAININDIA8.UKINDIAINDIAKOREAAUSTRALIAKOREAAUSTRALIAMEXICOGERMANYKOREA9.AUSTRALIAGREECEGREECEAUSTRALIAFRANCEAUSTRALIABR
130、AZILKOREAUKRAINESPAIN10.GREECEBULGARIAAUSTRALIAINDIACANADATURKEYUKNETHERLANDSKOREANETHERLANDSRANKING EU1.1.2.3.3.4.5.4.2.2.MARKET LEVEL TO ACCESS THE TOP 10426 MW843 MW792 MW779 MW675 MW818 MW944 MW1 621 MW3 130 MW3 036 MWTABLE 2.1:EVOLUTION OF TOP 10 PV MARKETSThe debate whether considering the Eur
131、opean Union as one entity or a collection of markets is an editorial choice of the writers.Considering the European PV Markets separately,Germany would rank fifth,Spain ninth and the Netherlands tenth.This doesnt change the general conclusions of this chapter;the ten first countries would cover 77%o
132、f the global PV market.As detailed above,the IEA PVPS choice consists in reporting DC capacities.An estimate of AC capacities would put the market around 106 GW in 2020.This number(in the same way as the DC number)is an approximation of the reality and represents an estimated value of the maximum po
133、wer that all PV systems globally could generate instantaneously,assuming they would all produce at the same time.This number is indicative and should in no case be used for energy production calculation.IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /15CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSOther
134、countries experienced a significant development of PV in 2020,with part of them having reached the top ten in previous years such as Vietnam,Brazil,and the Netherlands.Others that installed several GW in the last years,sometimes in the top 10 countries,didnt succeed in maintaining the level of insta
135、llations high enough to stay in the rankings:Mexico,Turkey,France and many other countries.For the second time,Egypt appears in the GW-scale markets in 2020.It added 1,5 GWdc of solar PV capacity in 2020 mainly thanks to a new park of utility-scale PV plants.In the UAE,almost 1 GW came online in 202
136、0 through large-scale tenders,amongst the most competitive globally.Self-consumption polices didnt contribute much but could represent a complementary driver in the near future.Mexicos annual installations reached 1,6 GWdc in 2020,in a complex policy environment,which might put the brakes on its mar
137、ket in the coming years,but 2020 installations in these three countries were significantly smaller.Other countries reached significant installation levels in 2020:Around 2,6 GW of PV installations were added in Poland in 2020,mostly as small distributed installations.Around 1,7 GW of mostly distribu
138、ted PV was installed in Taiwan in 2020.Turkey installed around 950 GWdc of solar PV in 2020.Belgium installed 1,1 GW in 2020,the highest level ever for that country.Other countries that installed significant amounts of PV but below the GW,are France(0,97 GW),Malaysia with almost 900 MW,Chile(790 MW)
139、,Italy(785 MW),or Israel(590 MW).The total installed capacity in most countries takes decommissioning of PV plants into account.While such numbers remain relatively limited for the time being,they start to impact at a very low level,which can lead to discrepancies in national statistics of several I
140、EA PVPS countries.Off-grid numbers are difficult to track and most numbers are estimates.Changes(including repowering)and decommissioning are higher for these applications than in other segments and can lead to number glitches.In this report,global annual installations and the cumulative capacity ar
141、e computed based on a variety of sources and could,despites all efforts,differ from other publications.SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.5:GLOBAL PV MARKET IN 2020VIETNAM,7,7%INDIA,3,0%GERMANY,3,4%SPAIN,2,4%NETHERLANDS,2,1%OTHER COUNTRIES,22,8%145,2 GWCHINA,33,2%USA,13,6%AUSTRALIA,3,1%JAPAN,6,0%SOUTH
142、KOREA,2,8%SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.6:CUMULATIVE PV CAPACITY END 2020JAPAN,9,4%ITALY,2,8%GERMANY,7,0%AUSTRALIA,2,7%UK,1,8%SOUTH KOREA,2,1%VIETNAM,2,1%OTHER COUNTRIES,20,3%767,2GWINDIA,6,2%CHINA,33,1%USA,12,5%CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202
143、1 /16THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY/CONTINUED SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.8:2017-2020 GROWTH PER REGION00500600700800GWJapanUSAOther countriesOther IEA PVPS countriesChinaIndiaEuropean Union20020407,1511,3622,0767,2SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.7:EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL P
144、V INSTALLATIONS 00500600700800GW20000192020Rest of the WorldMiddle East&AfricaAsia-PacificThe AmericasEuropeIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /17countries are proposing tendering processes to select the most competitive projects,which trigg
145、er a significant decline in the value of the electricity from PV systems and enlarge horizons for PV development.Merchant PV,where PV electricity is directly sold to electricity markets or(C-)PPAs,where it is directly sold to(corporate)consumers is experiencing growth in numerous countries,but this
146、market driver remains limited so far.One of the key trends of 2020 is the wider development of utility-scale plants with the sole revenues of electricity sales(on wholesale electricity markets or from private customers).Such development is mostly independent from financial incentives and therefore p
147、olicy decisions,which makes its potential virtually unlimited.Limitations are already seen due to grid congestion in some places:this has modified the tendering approaches which might lead to bidding at the lowest possible cost to secure a grid connection.This has been seen in Portugal for instance.
148、New utility-scale PV plants are increasingly using trackers to maximise production and in parallel,the use of bifacial PV modules increases relatively fast as well.The addition of storage systems also becomes a trend in some countries,either pushed by specific rules in tenders or by the willingness
149、to better serve the wholesale and grid services markets.In 2020,utility-scale plants amounted to 89 GW globally and the total installed capacity for all of these applications amounted to 453 GW;or 61%of the 2020 market and 59%of the cumulative installed capacity.Solar PV experienced another growth y
150、ear mainly driven by utility-scale projects which continued to develop fast both in established markets and in countries which only appeared recently on the PV development map.Although the role of distributed generation over large,centralized installations,should not be underestimated,utility-scale
151、PV is likely to keep dominating electricity generation in many countries.The main reason are the economies of scale,outweighing the savings in transmission costs and the self-consumption possibilities brought by embedded installations.Ground mounted utility-scale PV installations increased in 2020 w
152、ith more than 86 GW,compared to 70,5 GW in 2019 and 64 GW in 2018.However,the share of utility-scale still represented around 60%of cumulative installed capacity because distributed PV also grew significantly,up to 59 GW in 2020 compared to 41 GW in 2019.Off-grid and edge-of-the-grid applications ar
153、e increasingly integrated in these two large categories.UTILITY-SCALE PV:THE PV MARKET DRIVING FORCE Utility-scale PV plants are in general ground-mounted(or floating)installations.In some cases,they could be used for self-consumption when close to large consumption centres or industries,but general
154、ly they feed electricity into the grid.Due to the simplicity of feed-in policies,with or without tenders,utility-scale applications are thriving in new PV markets.More PV MARKET SEGMENTSTABLE 2.2:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALIZED PV INSTALLED IN 2020SOURCE IEA PVPS.GWCHINA 32,70 USA 14,46 JAPAN 4,86
155、SOUTH KOREA 3,98 INDIA 3,53 SPAIN 2,81 NETHERLANDS 1,95 VIETNAM 1,55 EGYPT 1,50 AUSTRALIA 1,42 TABLE 2.3:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR CENTRALIZED PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2020SOURCE IEA PVPS.GWCHINA 174,34 USA 59,76 INDIA 41,28 JAPAN 27,13 SOUTH KOREA 14,65 SPAIN 11,73 TURKEY 9,49 GERMANY 9,10 IT
156、ALY 8,83 UK 7,80 CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSCHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /18PROSUMERS,EMPOWERING CONSUMERS Prosumers are consumers producing part of their own electricity consumption.Historically driven by simple financial incenti
157、ves such as net-metering,prosumers segments increasingly develop thanks to various schemes based on the concept of self-consumption.Indeed,the new generation of solar schemes are often making the distinction between the electricity consumed and the electricity injected into the grid,thereby incentiv
158、izing self-consumption.An important factor in the success of self-consumption schemes is the retail electricity price which is still being maintained artificially low in some countries.Subsidies for fossil fuels are still a reality and reduce the attractiveness of solar PV installations,also in mark
159、et segments involving self-consumption.Conversely,the PV market tends to grow quickly when electricity prices increase.Overall,the main trend goes in the direction of self-consuming PV electricity in most of countries,often with adequate regulations offering a value for the excess electricity.This c
160、an be done with a FiT,a feed-in-premium added to the spot market price or more complex net-billing.Unfortunately,the move towards pure self-consumption schemes can create temporary market slowdowns,especially if the transition is abrupt.However,if the market conditions are favourable and the market
161、regains confidence,self-consumption can become a market driver.The distributed market has been oscillating around 16-19 GW from 2011 to 2016,until China succeeded in developing its own distributed market:it allowed the distributed PV market to grow significantly to more than 36 GW globally in 2017 t
162、o 49 GW in 2020.Several countries promote collective and distributed self-consumption as a new model for residential and commercial electricity customers.This model allows different consumers located in the same building or private area(collective self-consumption),or in the same geographical area w
163、hich requires to use the public grid(distributed or virtual self-consumption),to share the self-generated electricity;thereby unlocking access to self-consumption for a wide range of consumers.Such regulation,if well implemented,will allow development of new business models for prosumers,creating jo
164、bs and local added value while reducing the price of electricity for consumers and energy communities.These models of production could also positively impact grid integration of PV systems by enhancing adequacy between production and demand.In the case of“virtual(or distributed)self-consumption”,the
165、 prosumers are not grouped behind a meter.We will call“virtual(or distributed)self-consumption”,the case where production and consumption can be compensated at a certain distance,while paying a fair share to cover the grid costs.PV MARKET SEGMENTS/CONTINUED SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.9:CENTRALI
166、ZED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 202000GWAsia PacificEuropeMiddle Eastand AfricaThe AmericasSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.10:CENTRALIZED PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 20200500300GWAsia PacificEuropeMiddle Eastand AfricaThe AmericasIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOL
167、TAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /19CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.11:DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED CAPACITY PER REGION 202005540GWAsia PacificEuropeMiddle Eastand AfricaThe AmericasSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.12:DISTRIBUTED PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY PER
168、 REGION 20200204060800180GWAsia PacificEuropeMiddle Eastand AfricaThe AmericasTABLE 2.4:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLED IN 2020SOURCE IEA PVPS.GWCHINA 15,50 VIETNAM 9,58 USA 5,27 JAPAN 3,82 GERMANY 3,69 AUSTRALIA 3,06 BRAZIL 2,26 NETHERLANDS 1,09 BELGIUM 1,03 INDIA 0,86 TABL
169、E 2.5:TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR DISTRIBUTED CUMULATIVE PV INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2020SOURCE IEA PVPS.GWCHINA 78,94 GERMANY 44,81 JAPAN 44,56 USA 35,73 AUSTRALIA 13,31 ITALY 12,82 VIETNAM 9,96 FRANCE 6,31 INDIA 6,07 BELGIUM 5,86 contributed to the utility-scale market,distributed PV also increased signific
170、antly in 2020,with around 59 GW installed;with 15,5 GW from China alone.Remarkably,the distributed segment took off in the Middle East due to adequate policies in Israel and Jordan.Globally,centralized PV continued to represent 60%of the market in 2020,mainly driven by China,the USA,and emerging PV
171、markets.In the same trend as in previous years,2020 saw again some new records in terms of PV electricity prices through extremely competitive tenders.Although renewed competitive tenders CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /20EMERGING PV MARKET SE
172、GMENTSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.13:ANNUAL SHARE OF CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED GRID-CONNECTED INSTALLATIONS 2010-20200%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributed20406080100SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.14:CUMULATIVE SHARE OF GRID CONNECTE
173、D PV INSTALLATIONS 2010-20200%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributed20406080100IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /21CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSbased solar systems face either competing uses with industrial,or agricu
174、ltural activities or may not be economically viable due to high cost of land.This is also why Japan was one of the early adopters of Floating PV and still has the highest number of FPV projects(200).Floating PV is even possible in city states such as Singapore,which inaugurated a 60 MWp FPV plant in
175、 June 2021 and has called for a study for another 140 MWp.The highest installed FPV capacity to-date is deployed in China(a total of 1,3 GWp)where developers largely took advantage of water bodies that were created when former coal mines filled-up with ground water.These so-called subsidence areas a
176、re almost ideal as they are considered as unstable territories(hence not suitable for industrial or agricultural activities)and often have little bioactivities(leading to minimal environmental impacts).Another great opportunity for Floating Solar is the combination with existing hydropower dams.This
177、 even more so when conjointly operating the solar and hydro power generation(rather than pure co-location of the FPV plant on the reservoir).Apart from the diurnal cycle(i.e.,generating solar power during the day and saving water for hydropower generation at night),there is also a possible seasonal
178、benefit in areas with dry and wet seasons.Depending on the turbines and their reaction times,it is also possible to buffer some of the short-term variability from solar(due to could movements)and hence use the reservoirs as a“giant battery”.Many of the announced Floating Solar projects are on hydrop
179、ower reservoirs,for example in Thailand(3,5 GWp),South Korea(2,1 GWp)and Laos(1,2 GWp).With the exception of the European market which incentivized residential segments from the start,initially most of the major PV developments in emerging PV markets are coming from utility-scale PV.This evolution h
180、ad different causes.Utility-scale PV requires developers and financing institutions to set up plants in a relatively short time.This option allows the start of using PV electricity in a country faster than what distributed PV requires.Moreover,tenders are making PV electricity even more attractive i
181、n some regions.However,both trends are compatible as some policies were implemented recently in emerging markets to incentivize rooftop installations and tenders for rooftop installations are being organized in several historical markets.FLOATING PV:A GROWING MARKET SEGMENT The installed capacity of
182、 Floating PV(FPV)systems worldwide has surpassed 3 GWp in 2021,with 688 MWp added in 2020 alone(see Fig.2.15),according to data from the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore(SERIS)at the National University of Singapore(NUS).SERIS maintains a global database of close to 700 projects in opera
183、tion and more than 300 projects under planning,development,or construction.Apart from some installations in Europe,especially in the Netherlands,France,and the UK,Floating Solar is so far mostly located in Asia with more than 85%deployed in East and South-East Asia.In densely populated areas the pro
184、ximity of water bodies to load centres is often an advantage.Traditional land-SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.15:EVOLUTION OF FLOATING PV INSTALLED CAPACITY FROM 2013 TO Q3 202100Cumulative installed capacity(MWp DC)Annual installed capacity(MWp DC)2000568
185、9688434Annual installed capacityCumulative installed capacity50005006007008001 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5006 3121 9012 5893 023BIPV:WAITING FOR THE START The BIPV market remains a niche which can only be estimated properly with difficulty.With multiple business models,different
186、 incentives,all kinds of buildings or infrastructures(including roads)From tiles and shingles for residential roofs to glass curtain walls and more exotic faade elements,BIPV covers different segments with different technologies.Depending on the definition considered,the BIPV market ranged from 300
187、MW to 400 MW per year in Europe and probably reached 1 GW globally,while the difference between custom-made elements and traditional glass-glass modules can be difficult to assess.In that respect,simplified BIPV,using conventional PV modules with dedicated mounting structures,experienced positive de
188、velopments in numerous EU countries in 2020.The market is also split between some industrial products such as prefabricated tiles(found in the USA and some European countries for instance),to custom-made architectural products fabricated on demand.OFF-GRID MARKET DEVELOPMENT Numbers for off-grid app
189、lications are generally not tracked with the same level of accuracy as grid-connected applications.The off-grid and edge-of-the-grid market can hardly be compared to the grid-connected market because the rapid deployment of grid-connected PV dwarfed the off-grid market.Nevertheless,off-grid applicat
190、ions are developing more rapidly than in the past,mainly thanks to rural electrification programs essentially in Asia and Africa but also in Latin America.In some countries in Asia and in Africa,off-grid systems with back-up represent an alternative to bringing the grid into remote areas.Two types o
191、f off-grid systems can be distinguished:Mini-grids,also termed as isolated grids,involve small-scale electricity generation with a capacity between 10 kW and 10 MW.This grid uses one or more renewable energy sources(solar,hydro,wind,biomass)to generate electricity and serves a limited number of cons
192、umers in isolation from national electricity transmission network.Back-up power can be batteries and/or diesel generators.Stand-alone systems,for instance solar home systems(SHS)that are not connected to a central power distribution system and supply power for individual appliances,households or sma
193、ll(production)business.Batteries are also used to extend the duration of energy use.This trend is specific to countries that have enough solar resources throughout the year to make a PV system viable.In such countries,PV has been deployed to power off-grid cities and villages or for agricultural pur
194、poses such as water pumping installations.Another area of increasing interest are near-shore and off-shore marine floating PV projects.Such projects will see additional challenges but also almost endless opportunities.The challenges are the much more demanding environments,where tidal currents,riche
195、r marine life,wind,waves and the presence of salt water all need to be considered.But the opportunities in near-shore areas alone are enormous:significant unused space can be activated for energy harvesting close to load centres in coastal settlements and harbours.Going further off-shore aggravates
196、the challenges and cost but still has possible applications,especially for powering oil&gas platforms or for utilising the vast ocean spaces between the towers in off-shore wind farms.In those cases,the FPV project would take advantage of the existing transmission infrastructure and also of the fact
197、 that solar and wind generation are often complementary in their resource availability.The first such testbeds are being set up in the Netherlands and Belgium.In terms of floating structures,the vast majority of the FPV installations in operation use HDPE plastic floats,for which Ciel&Terre and Sung
198、row together have more than 50%market share.There is an increasing number of players,however,which follow different designs,ranging from a combination of floats and metal structures(e.g.Zimmermann)to membranes that are held in place by large plastic rings(e.g.Ocean Sun).For off-shore applications,mo
199、re robust designs are being test-bedded,for example by Oceans of Energy or SolarDuck.AGRI-PV:DUAL USE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FAST The development of PV on agricultural land exists from the beginning of utility-scale PV but,in some cases,crops have been replaced by photovoltaics and thus the use
200、 of the land has mostly shifted towards electricity production.Agri-PV proposes a different perspective with the possibility to use PV as an additional source of revenues for farmers,complementing their agricultural business.By positioning PV systems above the crops or plants,the system can allow ra
201、ising different kinds of crops with a reduced solar insulation,allowing a better development in sunny regions,and possibly new business models,such as recovery of damaged crops for instance,or different crops which would not have been profitable in some regions.This dual use imposes a different kind
202、 of PV systems,which can in some case change their position,from horizontal to vertical and allow either maximum PV production or maximum crop production depending on the weather conditions.Defining Agri-PV could be difficult and most existing plants on agricultural land could hardly be qualified as
203、 such.We will define Agri-PV in general as a PV plant which allows a combined land use,for agriculture and for PV plants,without putting the emphasis completely on the PV plant.In 2020 and 2021,an increasing number of countries either started to clearly define Agri-PV(in Germany for instance)or cons
204、trained it waiting for further regulations.CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /22EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS/CONTINUED IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /23The early PV developments started with the introduction of incentives in Eu
205、rope,particularly in Germany,and caused a major market uptake in Europe that peaked in 2008.While the global market size grew from around 200 MW in 2000 to around 1 GW in 2004,the market started to grow very fast,thanks to European markets in 2004.In 2008,Spain fuelled market development while Europ
206、e as a whole accounted for more than 80%of the global market:a performance repeated until 2010.From around 1 GW in 2004,the market doubled in 2007 and reached 8 GW and 17 GW in 2009 and 2010.From 2011 onward,the share of Asia and the Americas started to grow rapidly,with Asia taking the lead.This ev
207、olution is quite visible and still actual today,with the share of the Asia-Pacific region stabilizing around 58%in 2020.Since then,Asia continues to lead PV development,with the other regions following.PV increasingly represents a competitive alternative to providing electricity in areas where tradi
208、tional grids have not yet been deployed.In the same way as mobile phones are connecting people without the traditional lines,PV is expected to leapfrog complex and costly grid infrastructure,especially to reach the“last miles”.The challenge of providing electricity for lighting and communication,inc
209、luding access to the internet,will see the progress of PV as one of the most reliable and promising sources of electricity in developing countries in the coming years.In most developed countries in Europe,Asia or the Americas,this trend remains unseen,and the future development of off-grid applicati
210、ons will most probably only be seen on remote islands.PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGIONDetailed information about most IEA PVPS countries can be found in the yearly National Survey Reports and the Annual Report of the programme.IEA PVPS Task 1 representatives can be contacted for more information about thei
211、r own individual countries.SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.16:ANNUAL GRID-CONNECTED CENTRALIZED AND DISTRIBUTED PV INSTALLATIONS BY REGION IN 20200%Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributed20406080100Asia-PacificEuropeThe AmericasMiddle East and AfricaCHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TREND
212、SThe Americas represented 26 GW of installations and a total cumulative capacity of 120 GW in 2020.Whilst most of these capacities are installed in the USA,several countries have started to install PV in the central and southern countries of the continent:first in Chile and Honduras and more recentl
213、y in Mexico and Brazil.PV is developing in the Americas mostly through tenders except in the USA.Distributed applications start to develop in several countries.Next to the USA market that dominates by far,instability has characterized the development of PV in most American countries in the last year
214、s,with stop-and-go policies in Canada,Honduras or Mexico for instance.The market was dynamic in 2020 in Chile and Brazil,to mention these two,with prospects for development in several central American countries,such as Costa Rica,Guatemala and more.Outside of the IEA PVPS membership,Brazil remains t
215、he most important market:it finished the year 2020 with 7,5 GW of cumulative PV installed capacity with most of the newly installed capacity coming from distributed generation.In other countries,such as Argentina,development is starting to take off,with around 760 MW cumulative installed capacity in
216、 the country at the end of 2020 and 320 MW installed in 2020.Other multi-MW installations have been reported in Peru in recent years,in Honduras or in Colombia.Several other countries in Central and Latin America have put support schemes in place for PV electricity,and an increasing number of power
217、plants are connected to the grid mainly in Dominican Republic,Ecuador and El Salvador,closely followed by Uruguay and Panama which could indicate that the time has come for PV in the Americas.In countries with a high hydroelectricity contribution to the electricity mix,such as Venezuela,PV could bec
218、ome an alternative to the variable production due to changes in rain patterns.The Asia-Pacific region installed close to almost 88 GW in 2020 and the total installed capacity reached more around 450 GW.The market was dynamic in all parts of Asia,except in India,and significant growth was recorded.In
219、 2020 the region represented 60%of the global PV installations.As the most populated continent,Asia was poised to become the largest PV market globally and this happened relatively fast.Apart from the dynamism of China and Japan for several years now,Asia is home to several IEA-PVPS additional GW-sc
220、ale markets:Australia,Korea,but also Thailand.The size of the Chinese PV market makes it a dominant player in the Asian and global PV markets,while all other markets are lagging.Outside of the IEA-PVPS network,the largest market in terms of installations and potential is India.Given the population o
221、f the country,its potential would be at least at the level of China,or more,given the need for electrification.The Indian market developed in the last years but plateaued around the 10 GW mark on an annual basis,before going down to 4,4 GW in 2020 due to a series of administrative issues CHAPTER 2 P
222、V MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /24ASIA-PACIFICTHE AMERICASSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.17:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN THE AMERICAS PER SEGMENT0%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-gr
223、id20406080100IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /25CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS20 years.Larger systems and ground-mounted systems must be approved in a competitive bidding process.The FiT level is higher for floating PV and the projects employing high efficiency PV modules.I
224、n addition to these three countries where installations reached GW-scale levels,the market is dynamic in several other Asian countries,with the market being driven by utility-scale applications under tenders for instance in Indonesia,the Philippines,Nepal or Kazakhstan.The Government of Bangladesh h
225、as been emphasizing the development of solar home systems(SHS)and solar mini grids since about half of the population has no access to electricity.Thanks to the decrease in prices of the systems and a well-conceived micro-credit scheme,off-grid PV deployment exploded in recent years.The country targ
226、ets 3,2 GW of renewables by 2021,out of which 1,7 GW of PV.The market is growing in several other countries,at different speed,such as in Pakistan,where the government has published a target of 5 GW of solar power by 2022,therefore,more projects are expected to come online in the coming years.Last b
227、ut not least,in Singapore,the total PV installed capacity was 430 MW at the end of 2020.Asia is a continent so diverse,it can be difficult to derive trends from PV market development:however,the dynamics are positive and while the challenges,as seen in India,are numerous,a massive PV market suitable
228、 with energy transition goals is coming.In that respect,Asia will continue dominate the PV charts and pave the way for a larger adoption of PV globally.and difficulties.Some policy changes such as tariff ceilings and safeguard duties in combination with a falling currency also impacted the tendering
229、 procedures.In 2018 and 2019,several tender procedures found very few bidders and even not enough takers in some cases.The support of the federal government in India for PV is obvious,especially now that the government raised its renewables ambition to 225 GW towards 2022(and 100 GW for PV),but the
230、road to a fast development implies additional policy changes.At the end of 2020,India had 47 GWdc of PV capacity.The International Solar Alliance(ISA)led by Prime Minister Modi and supported by more than 120 countries aims to install 1 000 GW in its member(emerging)countries by 2030.In Vietnam,the s
231、olar market took off in 2019 with over 5,2 GWdc installed(and a total installed capacity of 5,3 GWdc)and boomed in 2020 with at least 11,1 GWdc installed,mostly rooftop applications(9,2 GWdc)but also 1,6 GW of utility-scale plants(including floating PV applications),pushing the total installed capac
232、ity to 16,45 GWdc.The government has revised in 2020 the FiT rates for utility-scale,rooftop and floating PV projects and should allow further growth of the utility-scale market.The positive reaction of the developers to the FiT scheme led to a massive development in 2019 and 2020,far beyond the gov
233、ernment expectations for 2020(800 MW).The government target for 2030,12 GW,is already reached,much faster than expected,while the countrys electricity demand is expected to soar in the coming years.In 2020,Taiwan(Chinese Taipei)installed about 1,7 GW after having installed 1,6 GW in 2019,it now reac
234、hes around 6 GW of cumulative capacity.The market is supported by a FiT scheme guaranteed for SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.18:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN ASIA PACIFIC PER SEGMENT0%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-grid20406080
235、100In the first years of this century,Europe led PV development for years and represented more than 70%of the global cumulative PV market until 2012.From 2013 to 2017,European PV installations decreased while there has been rapid growth in the rest of the world,mainly in Asia and the Americas.The fa
236、st development of PV led to a strong opposition from many stakeholders from the energy sector,and the market declined rapidly in several countries.In addition,several countries implemented measures aiming at decreasing the cost of PV installations for the community by retroactively changing the remu
237、neration levels or by adding taxes.This phenomenon happened mostly in Europe,where the fast development of PV took place before other regions of the world:Spain,Italy,Czech Republic,Belgium,France and others took some measures with a consequent impact on the confidence of developers and prosumers.Bu
238、t since then,the situation improved gradually in most countries and PV installations rose in Europe.This was the case again in 2020:With an improved competitiveness and new policies,Europe saw its PV market growing again in 2020,with 24 GW installed,which accounted for 16%of the global PV market.Eur
239、opean countries had 167 GW of cumulative PV capacity by the end of 2020,the second largest capacity globally.It is important to distinguish the European Union and its countries,which benefit from a common regulatory framework for part of the energy market,and other European countries which have thei
240、r own energy regulations and are not part of the European Union.Most European countries used Feed-in Tariffs schemes to start developing PV and moved in the last years to self-consumption(or variants)for distributed PV while tenders became the standard for utility-scale PV.These trends are not typic
241、al to Europe,but self-consumption developed faster here than in other locations.Collective and delocalized self-consumption are developing in several countries.BIPV has been incentivized more than in any other location in the past but remains a niche market after several GW of installations.Simplifi
242、ed BIPV seems to develop well in some countries.Merchant utility-scale PV developed in Spain and Germany and could lead to a significant market share in a near future.Portugal saw competitive tenders below a reasonable price in 2020,sign of speculation on grid connections.EUROPEAN UNION Policy Frame
243、work In December 2018,the revised European Renewable Energy Directive(RED II)set a 32%renewable energy target by 2030,up from 20%in 2020 1.In 2019 the European Green Deal was introduced,an action plan to boost the efficient use of resources by moving to a clean,circular economy and to restore biodiv
244、ersity and reduce pollution.A pillar of the European Green Deal is a commitment to be climate neutral by 2050.In September 2020,the European Commission proposed raising the 2030 climate targets aiming at a 55%GHG reduction by 2030.The CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOL
245、TAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /26EUROPESOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.19:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN EUROPE PER SEGMENT0%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-grid20406080100IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /27CHAPTER 2 PV
246、 MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSPV capacity by 2030.To do so,a strong interconnection as well as the announced energy storage framework are crucial.In March 2021,Hungary announced to close its last coal fired power plant 5 years earlier in 2025.This could lead to an increase of PV deployment,meaning that
247、the 2030 target of 6,5 GW can be reached earlier.To what extend the 2040 target of 12 GW of PV systems will be brought forward is not yet clear.The Polish recovery plan mentions rooftop PV but includes no concrete target.However,together with the Polish hydrogen strategy,which aims for 2 GW of elect
248、rolysers and the aim to replace coal heating system in residential buildings with heat pumps,will drive the demand for renewable electricity.The Polish Institute of Renewable Energy,responsible for tracking the capacity additions in the country,forecasts that the cumulative installed capacity will e
249、xceed the NECP target in 2022 and could reach 15 GW by 2025 and over 20 GW by 2030.State of Play At the end of 2020,the total installed PV power capacity in the European Union had surpassed 138 GW.Almost 55%of this were residential and commercial rooftop installations.The PV market in the European U
250、nion was declining for six years before the trend reversed in 2018.This trend continued in 2020 when the European Union added about 19,8 GW of new PV power capacity.Spain(3,5 GW),Germany(4,9 GW)and the Netherlands(3 GW)were the leading three countries.Poland was again in the top five with a newly in
251、stalled PV capacity of about 2,6 GW.Another five countries added more than 500 MW,namely Belgium,France,Italy,Hungary,and Sweden.Over the last few years,the number of European Member States conducting auctions for solar energy has continuously increased and driven down prices to the current average
252、level of EUR 35/MWh and EUR 70/MWh across the European Union.In 2020,the second Portuguese auction attracted the lowest bids.The winning projects offered electricity between EUR 11,2/MWh.Other European Countries Outside of the IEA-PVPS network,UK installed some hundreds of MW in 2020,far from the GW
253、-scale market it used to be a few years ago.The country had more than 13 GW of PV at the end of the year 2020,with a market mostly focused on small-scale applications.PPA-driven utility-scale PV could develop in the coming years.In the Russian Federation the“Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period
254、Up to 2035”set a target share of renewable energy in total electricity production at 4.5%by 2024.Furthermore,the Russian government set a target of 25 GW for the installation of renewable electricity capacities towards 2030.In 2020 about 700 MW of new PV capacity was installed in Russia,increasing t
255、he total capacity to around 1,9 GW(including ca 400 MW in Crimea).accompanying impact assessment 2 showed that such an increase in the climate ambition is realistic and economically feasible.The 55%GHG reduction target will require a share of renewable energy of approximately 38,5%according to the i
256、mpact assessment.On 31st May 2021,the European Council received the formal notification about the approval of the Recovery and Resilience Facility by all Member States.Together with the next long-term budget this represents EUR 2,02 trillion(USD 2,46 trillion)of spending between 2020 and 2027 3.To b
257、e eligible for the Recovery and Resilience Facility,each EU Member State had to prepare a national recovery and resilience plan,which outlines their individual reform and investment agendas for the years 2021-2023.Each recovery and resilience plan has to include a minimum of 37%of expenditure earmar
258、ked for actions to combat climate change.The recovery and resilience plans do not themselves set new targets for deployment of renewables at national level.Rather they describe a package of strategic projects,ranging from technological to socio-economic to administrative.Most national recovery and r
259、esilience plans include measures to support the installation of solar photovoltaic systems and several name targets for green hydrogen from renewable energy sources.In addition,the electrification of transport mentioned in various plans will require additional renewable electricity.Rooftop installat
260、ions are mentioned by several countries,often in relation to building renovation.However,total numbers are often difficult to derive as PV and wind are often bundled.Overall,the recovery funds will have a positive impact on the acceleration of PV deployment.This will be complemented with the ongoing
261、 revision of the renewable energy directive as part of the“Fit for 55”package of EU legislative measures to implement the new 55%GHG reduction target for 2030.Several countries have already indicated more ambitious timescales for the energy transition.The Cypriot Recovery Plan includes investments i
262、nto an“Euro Asia Interconnector”in the territory of Cyprus.The Euro Asia Interconnector is a cross border interconnector between Crete,Cypriot,and Israeli power grids.The realisation of this 1 208 km long interconnection would allow more PV electricity capacity without additional storage.In March 20
263、21,Cyprus,Greece and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding for the interconnector with a power capacity between 1 000 to 2 000 MWac.It is expected that the connection will be completed by 2024,with operations starting in 2025.The implications for new PV capacity in the three partnering countri
264、es are significant.Different to its partners Cyprus has not yet revealed the planned additional renewable electricity capacity.Israel announced that the interconnection would allow an additional installation of 12 to 15 GW PV capacity by 2030.Greece decided to phase out coal by 2028 and add an addit
265、ional 5 GW of For the past decade,many countries,especially in the Middle East have started to connect large-scale PV power plants and more are in the pipeline.Several countries are defining PV development plans and the prospects on the short to medium term are positive.The Middle East is amongst on
266、e of the most competitive places for PV installations,with PPAs granted through tendering processes among the lowest in the world.In 2020,around 6 GW have been installed in the region,representing 4%of the global market.In MEA(Middle East and Africa)countries,the development of PV remains modest com
267、pared to the larger markets,especially in the African countries.However,almost all countries saw a small development of PV in the last years and some of them a significant increase.There is a clear trend in most countries to include PV in energy planning,to set national targets and to prepare the re
268、gulatory framework to accommodate PV.Next to IEA-PVPS countries with a dynamic market such as Israel and more recently Morocco,the regions PV development is extremely diverse.In the middle East,the market has been driven mostly for competitive tenders for years and distributed applications started t
269、o develop only recently(net metering policies have been implemented in Israel,Jordan,Saudi Arabia and Tunisia).In Turkey,systems below 1 MW fall under the category of“non-licenced plants”which allowed the market to take off.At the end of 2020,the cumulative capacity had exceeded 9,5 GW,most of it in
270、 the category of“non-licenced”according to the Turkish transmission operator.In May 2019,the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority(EPDK)published new rules for net metering of PV systems with a capacity between 3 and 10 kW.Also,in May 2019,the Turkish Government amended the rules for“non-licenc
271、ed plants”increasing the project size up to 5 MW.However,only public installations used for agricultural irrigation,water treatment plants or waste treatment facilities are eligible as ground mounted projects.In 2009,Ukraine introduced the“Green Tariff”policy,a feed-in tariff scheme for electricity
272、generated from renewable energy sources.The scheme was modified a few times in the last years to adapt the remuneration levels.The latest change,in August 2020,introduced retroactive cuts for existing plants and compensations for curtailment.Around 1,5 GW of new PV power capacity was installed in 20
273、20,thus increasing the total capacity to 6,5 GW(excluding the approx.400 MW in Crimea).CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /28MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAEUROPE/CONTINUED SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 2.20:EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS IN AFRICA AND THE
274、MIDDLE EAST PER SEGMENT0%20000162017Grid-connected centralizedGrid-connected distributedOff-grid20406080100IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /29CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSleader with 1,5 GWac installed in one year.The policies engaged for s
275、everal years now have started to produce positive effects and the market is poised to develop further.South Africa was the first major African PV market,under several tenders that led to 4,2 GW cumulatively installed at the end of 2020.While a large part of the market was driven by tenders,the marke
276、t should rebalance towards rooftop applications in the coming years under government support.In Africa,besides the above-mentioned countries,Algeria has installed several hundreds of MW.Reunion Island,Senegal,Kenya,Mauritania,Namibia and Ghana have already installed some capacity.As the costs are de
277、creasing,the interest in PV is growing in other African countries.However,the market has not really taken off despite the huge potential and the growing competitiveness of solar PV,especially in off-grid applications.The main barrier is the financial aspect as the higher upfront investment costs rem
278、ains a barrier despite lower LCOE.The most competitive segment for the development of solar in Africa,especially in remote areas,is PV plants to replace or complement existing diesel generators.Such kinds of hybrid plants have been developed in Democratic Republic of Congo,Rwanda,Ghana,Mali,Ivory Co
279、ast,Burkina Faso,Cameroon,Gambia,Mauritania,Benin,Sierra Leone,Lesotho and others.Pay-as-you-go models are used to leverage financing difficulties for residential consumers,different pricing formats exist to foster access to clean and reliable electricity.Several large-scale PV plants have been anno
280、unced or are under construction in several countries in Africa:Burkina Faso(20 MW and 30 MW),Namibia(45 MW and 30 MW),Nigeria(100 MW),Cameroon(30 MW and 25 MW projects ongoing)and Kenya(several projects ranging from 30 MW to 80 MW)to name just a few.The question of African power markets is essential
281、 since many countries have a small,centralized power demand,sometimes below 500 MW.In this respect,the question is not only to connect PV to the grid but also to reinforce the electricity grid infrastructure and interconnection with neighbouring countries.However,concerning remote areas,micro-grids
282、and off-grid PV applications,such as water pumping installations,are expected to play a growing role in bringing affordable power to the consumers,in a continent with 700 million people still lack a basic access to electricity.Often,energy prices are supported by government spending,which limited fo
283、r years the ability of PV to compete.This situation is changing slowly,with new distributed schemes being proposed such as in Dubai(UAE).Tenders are still competitive and Saudi Arabia became early 2021 the country with the most competitive tender:the lowest acceptable bid reached 10,4 USD per MWh,th
284、e lowest on record.Another trend in the fast-developing region is the willingness for government to develop brand new cities or neighbourhoods,which aim at becoming showcases of renewable energies.This was the case for Masdar City(UAE)or Spark(Saudi Arabia).The situation is similar in northern Afric
285、a,with tenders driving PV market development in Egypt(even of the development was slower than expected),Algeria,and Morocco.In several countries,the question of local manufacturing is essential even if not yet visible in current policies.The willingness to manufacture locally and develop a manufactu
286、ring industry is present and will influence PV deployment in the coming years.In the Middle East,countries such as Saudi Arabia,Bahrain,Jordan,Oman and the United Arab Emirates have defined targets for renewable and solar energy for the coming years.Tenders are an integral part of the plans for PV d
287、evelopment in the short or long term in the region,while several were organized again in 2019 and 2020 and more have been announced.Almost 3 GWdc have been installed in the UAE through several plants and more is expected to come.Jordan is aiming for 1 GW of PV in 2030 and already launched several te
288、nders and installed several hundreds of MW.Qatar published the results of its third tender for 800 MW in January 2020.Saudi Arabia launched a series of tenders in the past and has again in 2020,with an initial objective totalling 3,3 GW.Bahrain has announced the development of 225 MW;Oman has launch
289、ed several tenders,each for at least 500 MW and plans to reach 4 GW of RES capacity by 2030,Tunisia launched a tender for 500 MW and for 70 MW,Libya 100 MW.Lebanon plans 180 MW towards 2020 and is investigating a plant of 500 MW as well.In Sub-Saharan Africa,with the notable exception of South Afric
290、a,the market has been slower to develop.Development Aid is often a key tool for financing hybrid PV systems and electrify directly through new grid connection.Egypt is the new African market CHAPTER 2 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDSIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /30MIDDLE EAST AND AF
291、RICA/CONTINUED TABLE 2.6:2020 PV MARKET STATISTICS IN DETAILSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.COUNTRY2020 ANNUAL CAPACITY(MW)2020 CUMULATIVE CAPACITY(MW)DISTRIBUTEDCENTRALIZEDTOTALDISTRIBUTEDCENTRALIZEDTOTALAUSTRALIA 3 081 1 422 4 503 13 618 7 205 20 823 AUSTRIA 336 4 341 2 020 23 2 043 BELGIUM 1 031 17 1 048
292、5 858 150 6 008 CANADA 79 121 200 1 462 2 063 3 525 CHILE 54 737 790 74 3 411 3 484 CHINA 15 500 32 700 48 200 79 300 174 340 253 640 DENMARK 36 228 264 1 242 383 1 624 FINLAND 98 0 98 313 0 313 FRANCE 513 460 973 6 339 4 581 10 920 GERMANY 3 685 1 200 4 885 44 806 9 095 53 901 ISRAEL 590 0 590 1 44
293、7 1 103 2 550 ITALY 615 170 785 12 819 8 831 21 650 JAPAN 3 819 4 857 8 676 44 739 27 129 71 868 KOREA 145 3 975 4 120 1 240 14 648 15 888 MALAYSIA 0 883 883 487 1 813 2 300 MEXICO 390 1 183 1 573 1 215 5 358 6 574 MOROCCO 0 0 0 0 0 206 NETHERLANDS 1 090 1 946 3 036 4 227 5 683 9 910 NORWAY 40 0 40
294、160 0 160 PORTUGAL 47 123 170 467 610 1 077 SOUTH AFRICA 500 800 1 300 1 000 3 172 4 172 SPAIN 715 2 813 3 528 1 877 11 726 13 603 SWEDEN 460 47 506 1 143 83 1 226 SWITZERLAND 475 0 475 2 973 0 2 973 THAILAND 0 49 49 650 2 928 3 578 TURKEY 0 958 958 10 9 494 9 504 UNITED STATES 5 268 14 457 19 725 3
295、5 731 59 764 954 95 IEA PVPS 38 556 69 150 107 716 265 216 353 593 619 016 NON-IEA PVPS 21 012 16 501 37 513 52 877 95 557 148 227 TOTAL59 605 85 624 145 229 318 430 448 813 767 243 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /31three POLICY FRAMEWORKIn addition to direct policies supporting P
296、V development,other indirect policies have a tremendous effect on PV development,or on some technologies.Sustainable building requirements,for instance,will become increasingly essential to support a long-lasting PV market development.Today,climate policies have an indirect effect but are shifting u
297、pwards the competitiveness of renewable energy sources.Some countries have indicated the willingness to significantly increase“carbon”taxes,propelling PVs competitiveness and accelerating its development.In some countries,sustainability policies are part of a push towards a cleaner industry and in p
298、articular some technologies.In addition to GHG emissions,they focus on hazardous materials,air or land pollution and more.Grid codes and tariffs,even if not applicable to PV only,also frame the ecosystem in which PV develops and are adding or alleviating constraints for developers and prosumers.This
299、 chapter focuses on existing policies and how they have contributed to develop PV.It pinpoints,as well,local improvements and examines how the PV market reacted to these changes.Finally,cross-sectoral aspects of PV development will also imply that PV will be submitted to additional regulations and p
300、olicies,especially in the building and transport sector,but also in agriculture,the urban environment,water areas(including the seas),industrial processes and more.In the early development of PV,many markets have been powered by a broad spectrum of support policies,aiming at reducing the gap between
301、 PVs cost of electricity and the price of conventional electricity sources.These support schemes took various forms depending on the local specificities and evolved to accommodate with market evolutions or policy changes.In recent years,the increased competitiveness of PV has allowed a number of mar
302、ket segments to develop without any form of financial support.Since the question of the competitiveness of PV is less pressing,a large part of new policies also is focussed on developing distributed PV through self-consumption schemes.In parallel,the development of utility-scale PV is starting to se
303、e the development of private contracts known as Power Purchase Agreements(PPA).However,the competitiveness of PV is not yet guaranteed in all segments and locations.Furthermore,the increased penetration of PV electricity lowers the average electricity prices.Therefore,targeted financial incentives m
304、ight still be needed for some years to overcome costs or investment barriers in many countries.Policies supporting distributed PV and self-consumption policies might be considered as non-financial incentives since they set up the regulatory environment to allow consumers to become prosumers.However,
305、these policies require fine tuning,especially on grid costs and taxes,which in some cases could be considered as indirect financial incentives.In general,self-consumption policies as explained in detail below simplify and adapt the regulatory framework to allow PV self-consumption to develop.Several
306、 countries continue to support financially self-consumption through various schemes like“net-metering”or“net-billing”or“feed-in-premiums”.Voltec SolarThe question of market drivers is a complex one since the market is always driven by a combination of several regulations and incentives.In these figu
307、res,the focus is put on the major driver for each macro-segment(distributed or centralized),while other drivers are playing a key role.This should be regarded as a general indication of the main PV drivers.Figure 3.1a,3.1b and 3.2 taken together shows that in 2020,around 5%of the volume of the marke
308、t became independent of support schemes or adequate regulatory frameworks:this implies installations not financially supported and developed outside of tenders or similar schemes.This is a significant improvement compared to previous years.If small-scale,distributed installations based on self-consu
309、mption were the first segment to develop,non-subsidized is gaining momentum for utility-scale PV.The trend is clear,PV plants selling their production to corporate customers have started to emerge in Spain and Chile and were followed by project developers in the Australia,Germany,USA,Denmark and,mor
310、e recently,Italy and Sweden.This number of countries is expected to grow fast,given the conditions for PV competitiveness.Around 23%of utility-scale plants were developed through tenders:this is a significant increase which started a few years ago.In comparison,tenders contributed to 1%of the distri
311、buted market,even if this number is expected to increase as more tenders are launched for rooftop projects(amongst others in Bangladesh,Bahrain,India,France,Myanmar).It is highly debatable whether tenders are suitable for rooftop PV development,and even more for BIPV installations.France has tried s
312、uch tenders but the result remains negligible in terms of volume.The sign that competitive tenders have seen their share of the global market increasing to 14%(23%of centralized PV market)compared to 7%before 2017 is not a major concern yet for the industry.However,as most countries are transitionin
313、g to tenders to grant PPAs and the numbers are expected to further grow in the coming years,the shrinking profit margins,especially in super-competitive tenders,could become a threat for the long-term stability of some market actors,hence creating more market concentration.This is already visible in
314、 2021 with the major increase of prices due to the impact of the pandemic,that results in huge difficulties for some developers to remain competitive on already granted tenders.Globally,about 52%of the PV installations are receiving a predefined tariff for part or all of their production;respectivel
315、y 55%and 50%for the distributed and the centralized segments.Even though the share of the market driven by FiT has not diminished significantly through the years,there is a global trend towards lower tariffs.This diminishing trend of the FiT is in line with the price decrease of the technology.The i
316、ncrease seen in 2021 and possibly temporary might put the brakes on market development unless tariffs are increased.With around 15%global market share,9%for the distributed segment and 18%of the centralized segment,direct subsidies are the third most represented form of support for PV,most of the ti
317、me they cover only a part of the whole installation cost.They are a constraint to PV development,since they depend on public funding,which is,by nature,limited.However,they are easy to set up which explains their utilization.CHAPTER 3 POLICY FRAMEWORK IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 202
318、1 /32PV MARKET DRIVERSSOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 3.1A:MAIN DRIVERS OF THE DISTRIBUTED PV MARKET IN 202059GWTRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,0,3%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,1%FEED-IN TARIFF 55%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,9%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,9%
319、INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION OR NET-METERING,26%SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.FIGURE 3.1B:MAIN DRIVERS OF THE CENTRALIZED PV MARKET IN 2020 TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,7%NON INCENTIVIZED,2%FEED-IN TARIFF,50%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,18%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR
320、PPA,23%86GWIEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2021 /33CHAPTER 3 POLICY FRAMEWORK Self-consumption,supported by different mechanisms such as net-metering and net-billing,represented 26%of the distributed PV market,an important increase compared to historical installations.Various forms of s
321、upport to self-consumption schemes exist,for example in Italy with the Scambio Sul Posto(a net-billing scheme),Israel,or Germany.Although net-metering is being abolished in historical markets,countries such as Thailand and Ecuador introduced net-metering for residential PV owners recently.Net-meteri
322、ng remains an easy way to activate the distributed PV market but requires shifting to self-consumption later.Green certificates and similar schemes based on RPS represented around 4%of the market,a stable and low share which is explained by the greater complexity of this type of scheme.Green certifi
323、cate trading still exists in countries such as Belgium,Norway,Romania and Sweden.Similar schemes based on RPS exist in Australia and Korea for instance.Incentives can be granted by a wide variety of authorities or sometimes by utilities themselves.They can be unique or add up to each other.Their lif
324、etime is generally quite short,with frequent policy changes,at least to adapt the financial parameters.Next to central governments,regional states or provinces can propose either the main incentive or some additional ones.Municipalities are more and more involved in renewable energy development and
325、can offer additional advantages.In some cases,utilities are proposing specific deployment schemes to their own customers,generally in the absence of national or local incentives,but sometimes to complement them.FIGURE 3.2:EVOLUTION OF MARKET INCENTIVES AND ENABLERS:2010,2015,2020TRADING OF GREEN CER
326、TIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,3%FEED-IN TARIFF 85%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,11%2010TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,2%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,7%FEED-IN TARIFF 60%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,0,2%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,16%INCENTIVIZED
327、 SELF-CONSUMPTION OR NET-METERING,15%2015SOURCE IEA PVPS&OTHERS.TRADING OF GREEN CERTIFICATES OR SIMILAR RPS-BASED SCHEMES,4%FEED-IN TARIFF THROUGH TENDERS OR PPA,14%NON INCENTIVIZED,1%FEED-IN TARIFF 52%NON-INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTION,4%DIRECT SUBSIDIES OR TAX BREAKS,15%INCENTIVIZED SELF-CONSUMPTI
328、ON OR NET-METERING,11%2020development of the market.In France and Italy,the FiT decrease is dependent on both installation rates and on economic indicators.Other countries have opted for a market-based decrease strategy and adapt their FiT on a regular basis,such as Japan and,China for instance.Tend
329、ering and Auctioning Calls for tender are another way to grant FiT schemes with an indirect financial cap.This system has been adopted in many countries around the world,with the clear aim of increasing the competitiveness of PV electricity.Since bidders must compete with one another,they tend to re
330、duce the bidding price at the minimum possible and shrink their margins.This process is currently showing how low the bids can go under the constraint of competitive tenders.However,many believe such low bids are possible with extremely low capital costs,low components costs and a reduced risk hedgi
331、ng.Therefore,it is conceivable that they do not represent the average PV price in all cases but are showcases for super-competitive developers.The race to the bottom in international tenders is driving the solar power price down to the extent that project developers have started to bid at levels whi
332、ch speculate on further reductions in solar panel costs,and in interest rates.Certainly,tender competition has,in some countries,resulted in the emergence of dive bidding and what has been termed the“winners curse”whereby a successful bidder underbids in order to win the contract and then cannot del
333、iver power at the agreed-upon price.Declining investment must also be considered in the context of interest rates,which determine the cost of capital used to finance solar projects,and which constitute a significant portion of total project costs.Tenders have gained success in the entire world over the last years and Europe aligned with this trend while several countries adopted or reintroduced te