《麦肯锡(McKinsey):2022年零排放卡车报告(英文版)(30页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《麦肯锡(McKinsey):2022年零排放卡车报告(英文版)(30页).pdf(30页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Preparing the world for zero-emission trucks The mainstays of commercial road transport will soon benefit from cost-effective,zero-emission horsepowerIAA 2022:charticleSeptember 2022McKinsey Center for Future Mobility McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Preparing
2、the Preparing the world for zero-world for zero-emission trucks emission trucks The mainstays of commercial road transport will soon The mainstays of commercial road transport will soon benefit from cost-effective,zero-emissions horsepowerbenefit from cost-effective,zero-emissions horsepowerIAA 2022
3、:charticleIAA 2022:charticle4Preparing the world for zero-emission trucks5Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksContentsPreparing the world for zero-emission trucksBatteries and fuel cells will be go-to technologies for ZE trucksA new world without one-size-fits-all solutionsThe trucking indus
4、try is at the starting blocksOEMs are already at the drawing boards,with over 70 truck models available by 2024ZE trucks will trump diesel in 5 to 10 years,with+10%savings in TCO likely within that period60%of fleet operators have announced decarbonization targets,but big challenges remain12 more gi
5、ga-factories of batteries are needed to support ZE truck demand by 2030Trucks to consume just 4 percent of electricity demand in 2040Refueling infrastructure to cost$450 billion by 2040The trucking value chain will be re-shuffledConclusion681012 14 16 18 20 222426286Preparing the world for zero-emis
6、sion trucksPreparing the world for zero-emission trucksIn less than a decade,electric powertrains have expanded from a tiny niche to become the almost inevitable powertrain for tomorrows passenger vehicles.Continuing this trend toward sustainable transport,medium-and heavy-duty truckswill soon embar
7、k on a similar journey.Given a highly supporting environment,we expect that zero-emission powertrains will gain momentum over the next two to three years.Within the next decade,they will become the dominant powertrains in new vehicle sales in the United States,Europe and China,and will reach 85 perc
8、ent market share in vehicle sales by 2040.However,trucks are built to last.Even such a fast ramp-up in sales will take a decade to appear in the vehicle fleet.Hence,time is of the essence,especially given that road freight vehicles account for approximately 5 percent of all global CO2 emission.1The
9、pathway to decarbonization of road freight will be shaped three main factors:regulation;technology and cost;and truck market dynamics and infrastructure.RegulationGovernments at various levels have introduced regulations and incentives to promote zero-emission trucks.Actions at the national level in
10、clude subsidy programs or tax breaks for zero-emission trucks,components,and infrastructures,discounts on road tolls,tightened fleet emission standards,or sales bans on combustion-engine vehicles.Some regional and city governments complement these actions with zero-emission vehicle procurement targe
11、ts for their fleets or entry bans for internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles.1 Hannah Ritchie,Max Roser and Pablo Rosado(2020)“CO and Greenhouse Gas Emission.”Published online at OurWorldInData.org.Retrieved from:https:/ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emission Online Resource 2 Tota
12、l Cost of Ownership(TCO)includes the upfront cost,depreciated over time and distance traveled,as well as costs for maintenance,fuel,charging/refueling infrastructure,and tolls.It does not include insurance and driver costsWhile taking different forms in different geographies,regulation favoring zero
13、-emission vehicles(ZEVs)has helped energize the transition and will likely accelerate the deployment of battery-electric vehicles(BEV)and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEV)in this decade.In fact,regulatory activity has intensified across various markets,with comprehensive regulatory frameworks announ
14、ced in both the European Union(Fit-for-55 program already includes CO2 regulation for light vehicles,changes in emissions regulation for heavy trucks are expected to be announced later this year)and the United States(as part of the Inflation Reduction Act).Technology and costTo ensure the at-scale d
15、eployment of zero-emission trucks,total cost of ownership(TCO2)is a key factor.While some regulatory interventions seek to reduce TCO for zero-emission trucks,industry players are also accelerating innovations around key zero-emission powertrain components.While commercial vehicles can borrow some a
16、pproaches from passenger vehicles,in most cases specifications and scale considerations require different solutions.The main objective is to reduce costs further for key elements such as batteries,fuel cell systems,and hydrogen and make zero-emission trucks economically competitive with their diesel
17、 equivalents.In the next decade,we expect a steep learning curve for relevant FCEV components such as fuel cell systems(and electrolyzers for hydrogen production),The next ten years should also see a steep decline in battery costs from USD 1,000 per kilowatt-hour(kWh)to USD 100 per kWh for some appl
18、ications.7Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksExhibit 1Source:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityBy 2035,majority of new trucks will be electric in US,EU&ChinaSales,current trajectoryBEV&FCEV sales in%of new medium-and heavy-duty truck salesParc,current trajectoryBEV&FCEV parc in%of total me
19、dium-and heavy-duty truck parc40302020204025350602080402530ChinaEurope United States Additional benefits will result from increased scale in truck production,further reducing unit costs.Once the technology is ready and production reaches scale,it should support a substantially lower total
20、 cost of ownership(TCO)compared with current diesel trucks.In return,fleet operators will adopt zero-emission trucks quickly to seize these cost benefits.Truck market dynamics and infrastructureFleet operators and freight buyers are becoming increasingly aware of their carbon footprints.More than 36
21、00 companies globally are committing to science-based targets3,many aim to source zero-emission trucks or logistics soon,with some even willing to pay a premium.The increase in demand faces tight supply volumes,with both start-up and incumbent OEMs likely only achieving larger 3 https:/sciencebasedt
22、argets.org/companies-taking-actionproduction volumes in Western markets in the next few years.In this environment,both fleet operators and OEMs have an incentive to further accelerate their deployment of zero-emission trucks.However,trucks are only one side of the equation.To allow the deployment of
23、 zero-emission trucks at scale,the corresponding networks for charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure need to be in place.The necessary roll-out will require substantial investments in electricity grids,the hydrogen supply chain,and corresponding refueling infrastructure.While first investmen
24、ts are already underway,only a comprehensive network will allow for the at-scale use of zero-emission trucks.Addressing such challenges will be even more important in markets like Europe,with a large share of smaller,outsourced fleets,serving ad-hoc requests with limited predictability on times and
25、routes.8Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksBatteries and fuel cells will be go-to technologies for ZE trucksBy 2030,battery and fuel cell electric powertrains will be the winning technologies from an emission and TCO perspective.They thus represent the two most relevant options for fleet op
26、erators.Operational cost savings(mainly energy and potentially maintenance)will offset the higher capital expenditures(capex)for batteries and fuel cell systems within two to four years.Until then,technological advancements concerning batteries and charging speeds will allow sufficient range and acc
27、eptable charging speeds for BEV trucks.Likewise,a broad build-up of hydrogen refueling infrastructure and improvements in thermal management of the powertrain will allow the deployment of FCEV trucks at scale.Compared with diesel trucks,both BEV and FCEV trucks have payload restrictions due to the w
28、eight of the battery or the size of the hydrogen tank.However,at this point,the practical consequences remain limited given that many regulators allow for exceptions in vehicle dimensions or weight to balance out these disadvantages.Over time,improved battery energy density and higher-pressure or li
29、quid hydrogen tanks will likely further close the gap.Other zero-emission options include hydrogen combustion and renewable fuels.Given todays high battery costs,nascent infrastructure build-up,and limited BEV/FCEV production volumes,both options can help to accelerate truck fleet decarbonization.Hy
30、drogen combustion powertrains feature modified versions of natural gas combustion engines.Companies can thus adapt them and put them on the market faster than FCEV powertrains.However,hydrogen combustion trucks would still need access to hydrogen refueling infrastructure,which remains scarce.In addi
31、tion,hydrogen combustion engines will likely have lower fuel efficiency than FCEV powertrains at low and medium loads,rendering them uncompetitive for typical truck operations.More likely long-term applications of hydrogen combustion include off-highway segments with their higher peak-power requirem
32、ents.Renewable diesel(RD),renewable natural gas(RNG),and other renewable and synthetic fuels can support the faster decarbonization of existing diesel fleet and compressed or liquified natural gas(CNG/LNG)fleets.They have the advantage of being compatible with current infrastructure and powertrains
33、and they are commercially and technically available ready to deploy.Their availability has remained limited so far and despite a faster scale-up at the moment,their total theoretical contribution is constrained to low tens of%of total fuel need given feedstock constraints.Production scale-up is expe
34、cted to continue,with a focus on demand from aviation,marine,chemicals and industrial sectors.Yet,without regulatory support,RNG and RD will remain costlier than fossil fuels and will not be cost-competitive with BEV or FCEV powertrains in most road transport applications in the long term.Thus,renew
35、able fuels will likely serve as transition fuels over the next few decades,with potential long tail demand towards and beyond 2050,for example in remote or sparsely populated regions.9Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksSource:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility,McKinsey Hydrogen InsightsBat
36、tery electricDiesel H2Fuel cell electricH2O2Hydrogen ICEH2CNG/LNGGBio-/SynfuelKey TCO determinants 2030Operational considerations 2030Refueling time1Efficiency Well-to-wheel Powertrain capexInfrastruc-turecostsRangePayloadTailpipe emissionsProjected TCO by 2030Availability todayZeroLowLower TCO than
37、 for current Diesel powertrainZeroLowLower TCO than for current Diesel powertrainLowNOx emissions(requires SCR after-treatment)MediumLower TCO than for current Diesel powertrain,but higher than BEV/FCEVHighCO2and PM emissionsMediumLower TCO than Diesel powertrainHighCO2,NOx and PM emissionsMediumMed
38、iumCO2(depending on CO2source),NOx and PM emissionsHighExpected to remain more expensive than fossil Diesel/natural gasLowLimited production volume and high vehicle costsLowLimited production volume and high vehicle costsMediumLimited availability of fuelsMediumLimited availability of refueling infr
39、astructureLowNo truck models on the market todayHighStandard fuel todayZero-emission powertrain/fuel optionsFossil fuelsFavoring powertrain adoptionNeutral to powertrain adoptionLimiting factor for powertrain adoptionExhibit 2LowLowHighHighFastLowHighFastHighLowLowLowHighHighHighMediumMediumMediumHi
40、ghHighHighMediumMediumFastHighHighMediumMediumMediumFastLowHighFastHighLowMedium1.Refueling times for Diesel,gas and hydrogen are approx.15-20 min.Recharging times for BEV trucks will depend on the charger technology used and can range from 30-45 min to multiple hours10Preparing the world for zero-e
41、mission trucksA new world without one-size-fits-all solutionsNo universal solution exists for zero-emission powertrain technologies for future trucks.Instead,the answer will depend on a trucks weight class,its use case,and the environment in which it operates.And the answer is not clear yet as there
42、 are multiple unknows,which can shift the future market into either direction:1.Development in technology costs:Battery costs have already dropped by an order of magnitude over the past 10 years,and are expected to decline further until 2030.Fuel cell and electrolyzer systems are only at the beginni
43、ng of their learning curve,with steep cost declines and technological improvements expected over the next decade,also driven by other applications.For both technologies,substantial cost reductions are still needed to become economically viable.2.Operational characteristics:Today,both BEV and FCEV tr
44、ucks often carry operational constraints.For BEV,these include payload restrictions(due to battery weight),recharging times,or limited ranges.For FCEV,payload restrictions can result from the larger space required for their hydrogen tanks.Overcoming these constraints will be required to unlock deman
45、d.3.Infrastructure availability:BEV trucks will require a dense network of(fast)charging infrastructure to allow deployment at scale.The corresponding upgrades of the electricity grid are not always trivial.FCEV trucks need a comprehensive coverage of hydrogen refueling stations,many more than the a
46、pproximately 700 stations in operations globally today4.Substantial investments will be required,before long-haul fleets can be addressed at scale.4 Ludwig Blkow Systemtechnik(2022)14th Annual assessment of H2stations.org 5 ICCT(2022)Fuel-cell electric tractor trailers:Technology overview and fuel e
47、conomyIn addition,fleet-specific drivers may lead operators to prefer one technology over another.One example for such drivers are the type of truck use cases:Battery costs scale with vehicle range,which leads to an advantage for BEV for short-and mid-range use cases as well as for predictable,regul
48、ar routes.For long-haul use cases with less predictable routes,FCEV can be advantageous given their shorter refueling times and lower upfront cost compared to high-range BEV trucks.As a result,most MDT trucks are expected to transition to BEV powertrains,while for HDT trucks,also FCEV powertrains ar
49、e expected to play a relevant role,especially in long-haul use cases.A second key driver will be local energy prices and availability:FCEV trucks have a 50%lower well-to-wheel energy efficiency than BEVs,5 but hydrogen is transportable over long distances more cheaply than electricity.Hence,dependin
50、g on the local availability and nature of renewable energy,electricity versus hydrogen fuel costs could skew heavily to favor one or the other powertrain.In this race to the market,BEV trucks will have a head-start as they will be available at scale earlier than FCEV trucks.They will also benefit fr
51、om synergies with technological advances in electric passenger cars.This way,fleet operators will already phase in a zero-emission truck type and adjust their operations accordingly,potentially limiting the appetite for a second powertrain and fuel type.In turn,FCEV will benefit from both developmen
52、ts in batteries and electric powertrains for BEV trucks as well as fuel cell and electrolyzer developments for industrial,and other transport applications,such as aviation and marine.Also,given the slow fleet renewal cycles,approximately 90%of all trucks in operation by 11Preparing the world for zer
53、o-emission trucksExhibit 3Expected powertrain solutions by segment and use case1Expected core FCEV marketExpected core BEV marketNote:Sizes of the circles reflect estimated total segment sales volume across powertrains for United States,Europe and China,by 20301.Urban:Distribution use cases with dai
54、ly mileages of 150 km or less;Regional:Distribution use cases with daily mileages of 250 km or less,returning to base at the end of the day;Line-haul:daily mileages of 500 km along predictable,regular routes;On-demand:daily mileages of 500-800 km,in ad-hoc settings with limited predictabilitySource:
55、McKinsey Center for Future MobilityMDTHDTUrbanRegionalLong-haul,line-haul(regular routes,high predictability)Long-haul,on-demand(varying routes,low predictability)not relevantnot relevant2030 will still run on internal combustion engines,thus barriers to entry for FCEV will not be significantly limi
56、ted yet.The above drivers will likely play out differently in different geographies.For example,operational constraints are less of a challenge in North America,where there are less tight vehicle dimension requirements.Also electricity and hydrogen prices as well as the speed of their infrastructure
57、 roll-out can vary significantly between geographies.Finally,the head-start of BEV powertrain technology will likely be strongest in Europe,driven by an early regulatory push to accelerate the transition to zero-emission powertrains.12Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksThe trucking industry
58、 is at the starting blocksBy 2040,85%of the new trucks sold in the United States,Europe and China will run on zero-emission powertrains,joining the 40 percent of the vehicle fleet already equipped with BEV or FCEV powertrains.OEMs are already embarking on this and start to bring zero-emission truck
59、models to the market.Eventually,zero-emission trucks will allow fleet operators to reach their decarbonization targets but at the same time can help reduce fleet operating costs.Making this transition work will require substantial investments in production capacity and infrastructure.For example,the
60、 currently announced 2024 production volumes of BEV and FCEV trucks correspond to only 2 percent of annual truck sales.To get to a sizeable scale,the whole value chain needs to act in concert.For instance,the industry will need additional battery production capacity equal to 12 giga-factories by 204
61、0,along with the corresponding amounts of raw material supplies.Whats more,electric trucks will add about 6 percent to todays electricity demand and require USD 450 billion in investments into charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure through 2040.13Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksS
62、ource:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityExpected Case12 Battery giga-factories by 2030310%+TCO savings in reach within the next 5-10 years70+zero-emission truck models to be available by 2024 in Europe and US6%additional electricity demand by 2040$450 bnInfrastructure investments required by 204085
63、%of new truck sales with ZE powertrain2,204040%of trucks on the road with ZE powertrain2,204060%of fleet operators have announced decarbonization targets1.Weight class definitions:US:HDT:Class 8(15t),MDT:Class 4-7(6-15t);EU:HDT 16t,MDT:7.5-16t;CN:HDT 14t,MDT:6-14t2.ZEVs include BEVs&FCEVs3.Assumes a
64、n average Gigafactory with annual capacity of 25 GWhMedium-and heavy-duty trucks1,United States,Europe,China,2040Exhibit 414Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksOEMs are already at the drawing boards,with over 70 truck models available by 2024A variety of BEV and FCEV truck models are already
65、 on the market.By 2024,fleet operators in Europe and North America will be able to choose from more than 70 different models,compared with almost 130 models available with diesel powertrains.6 However,most trucks available today have been designed for urban and regional use cases,lacking the ranges
66、required to be deployed for long-haul use cases.Also,production volumes will remain low,at fewer than 30,000 units annually through 2024 in Europe and North America.Most of these will be BEV trucks,with FCEV production volumes remaining in the low thousands.The limited supply leads to long wait time
67、s for potential truck buyers.As a result,procuring even a small fleet of zero-emission trucks can be difficult for fleet operators in the short-term.Production volumes in China are already double this volume output,reflecting the earlier start of the local industry.BEV trucks will become available i
68、n larger volumes before FCEVs,given that both the powertrain technology and refueling infrastructure are more mature at this point.Driven by technology readiness,urban and regional use cases will transition first,with model offerings and volumes of BEV trucks already growing now.The key 6 Models wit
69、h production volumes of more than 100 units a year drivers for a faster uptake are the lower battery sizes required for these use cases,which limit the price differences with diesel trucks.Furthermore,urban and regional use cases can rely on depot charging and thus do not depend on still incomplete
70、highway charging infrastructure networks.Long-haul BEV trucks will follow at larger scales beginning in two to four years,after a further decline in battery pack prices and as the availability of fast-charging infrastructure grows,while FCEVs will likely reach scale another few years later.Along wit
71、h the growing scale of zero-emission truck production,the OEM and model landscape will also change.Today,attackers such as start-up OEMs and retrofitters account for a large share of the ZE truck models on the market,having invested in the electrification trend early on.Consequently,many of these st
72、art-up OEMs are not bound to legacy vehicles but use tailored EV-only platforms for their models,exploiting the full benefits of the new powertrain designs.In contrast,the first-generation electric trucks launched by incumbent OEMs mainly use ICE platforms and will likely migrate to EV-only platform
73、s in future model generations.15Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksCumulative,#of models available in Europe and North AmericaSource:Press;OEM web sites1.Models with production volume 100 units p.a.BEVFCEV2361325505 55 521 13 30259U Ur rb ba an n&r re eg gi io on na al l,450 km range0%0.5%1
74、.5%1.0%2.0%2022020222024I Im mp pl li ie ed d p pr ro od du uc ct ti io on n v vo ol lu um me e r ra am mp p-u up p (e es st ti im ma at te e),%of annual salesLong-haulUrban®ional2002220232 20 02 24 4ZEV medium and heavy-duty truck models on the marketExhibit 516Preparing th
75、e world for zero-emission trucksZE trucks will trump diesel in 5 to 10 years,with+10%savings in TCO likely within that period TCO is a deciding factor when it comes to enabling the roll-out of zero-emission trucks because fleet operators are much more sensitive to operating costs than private car bu
76、yers.We expect BEVs or FCEVs to reach TCO parity with diesel engines by 2030 across most use cases and geographies.In the long term,TCO savings compared with diesel can be as high as 30 percent,depending on the use case.To accelerate adoption,several regulators across the globe have launched incenti
77、ve programs,including subsidies or toll discounts.Although typically only available for limited periods of time,or for a limited number of vehicles,such programs can pull forward TCO parity by up to five years,which could make ZE trucks highly competitive within the next three years,depending on the
78、 incentives available.TCO for zero-emission trucks will decrease by up to 65 percent by 2040,driven by three factors.The first involves advancements in technology and associated cost reductions of batteries,fuel cell systems and refueling infrastructure.The second includes increased scale in vehicle
79、 production that will lower the per-unit costs of both components and assembly.The third is increased on-road deployments that will reduce the per-truck costs of charging and refueling infrastructures,thus bringing down operating costs.We expect BEVs and FCEVs to take complementary roles in the mid-
80、term since their cost structures position them as solutions for different use cases.For BEVs,charging costs are low at fleet hubs and upfront costs typically scale with the required range,making it a competitive choice for distribution use cases or long-haul use cases with predictable,regular routes
81、.In turn,economics are less favorable for BEV in use cases with high variance in daily distances,which lead to a lower utilization of the battery.For FCEVs,upfront costs are higher but do not scale much further with the required range.Also,hydrogen refueling will likely remain substantially faster t
82、han charging,making it competitive for long-haul operations that require higher levels of flexibility.As a result,OEMs will tailor future trucks to their specific use cases far more than they do with current diesel trucks,sizing the battery and/or hydrogen tank according to the needs of their custom
83、ers specific use cases.In the long term,we expect the TCO performance of BEVs and FCEVs to reach virtual parity with each other so that the respective market adoption decisions will depend primarily on their operational characteristics.In this regard,fleets will likely make specific trade-offs to ma
84、ximize vehicle uptime depending on numerous factors such as local grid capacity,the availability of hydrogen refueling stations along their core networks and required charging patterns.17Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksExample:EuropeFCEVBEVTCO break-even with Diesel in European markets10
85、%advantageTCO parityTCO break-even including Germany-like1incentives,Subsidy covering 80%of upfront cost gap with Diesel and 100%discount on tolls(currently valid until 2024)SegmentOn-demand long-haul HDT40t truck,800 km range,175000 km annual mileageLine-haul HDT40t truck,500 km range,125000 km ann
86、ual mileageRegional distribution HDT18t truck,300 km range,60000 km annual mileageSource:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityNote:TCO model assumes the following cost levels for HDT long-haul line-haul truck in Europe in 2030:Upfront vehicle costs:110k USD(ICE)/170kUSD(BEV)/180k USD(FCEV);diesel pric
87、e:1.20 USD/l,electricity price:0.13 USD/kWh,hydrogen price:4.4 USD/kWh20242026202820302032+2022Exhibit 6Current Trajectory Scenario7 7 TCO model assumes the following cost levels for HDT long-haul line-haul truck in Europe:Upfront vehicle costs:110k USD(ICE)/170k USD(BEV)/200k USD(FCEV);diesel price
88、:1.20 USD/l,electricity price:0.14 USD/kWh,hydrogen price:4.4 USD/kWh18Preparing the world for zero-emission trucks60%of fleet operators have announced decarbonization targets,but big challenges remainDriven by the positive TCO outlook and the expectation that road transport will be easier to decarb
89、onize than other parts of a companys operations,many fleet operators and freight buyers have already announced decarbonization targets.According to a recent McKinsey survey,more than 60 percent of fleet operators across the US,Europe,and China plan to transition to zero-emission fleets within this d
90、ecade.Most have not developed concrete implementation plans yet,but some have already started to deploy ZEVs on the road.Fleets seeking to transition to zero-emission trucks quickly face a limited supply of available vehicles.To secure supply,some large fleets have even taken stakes in e-truck or e-
91、van startups,while other fleets have partnered with OEMs to run joint pilot programs.The transition to zero-emission trucks is more complex than just phasing in another new truck.Both BEVs and FCEVs have larger financing needs as they are two to four times more expensive compared with diesel trucks
92、today.There is also substantial technology risk,given the high cost of fuel cell systems or batteries,and fleets lack experience concerning their durability in real-life operations at scale.The risk is not inconsequential:vehicle uptime and reliability are extremely important to fleet operators.The
93、lack of trust in these new powertrains is a strong counterargument against even the most favorable TCO comparison.To counteract those risks,partnerships between fleet operators and OEMs(incumbents and disruptors)doubled between 2017 and 2021,according to a recent McKinsey survey.BEV trucks also requ
94、ire investments in charging infrastructure.Potential upgrades of the local grid in a timely manner can be costly and possibly unfeasible.Furthermore,companies may need to adjust the layout of fleet depots to accommodate charging processes.Due to scale effects,FCEV trucks will rely more on public ref
95、ueling infrastructure in the future.With few hydrogen refueling stations available today,FCEV trucks face an uphill battle in the short term.The transition challenges become even more complex in markets where freight buyers typically do not maintain their fleets but rely on third-party logistics(3PL
96、)providers.In such setups,most trucks belong to independently operated small fleets that depend even more on uptime and seamless access to infrastructure to deploy their vehicles as flexibly as possible.These fleets are even less able to shoulder the investments needed to deploy zero-emission trucks
97、.According to a recent survey,only approximately one-third of fleet operators across major markets are willing to accept 10 percent or more additional upfront costs for zero-emission trucks,despite their substantially lower operating costs.Consequently,the industry will require new financing and own
98、ership models to further scale deployment.19Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksSource:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityWhat are the pain points for introducing zero-emission trucks?BEV34%High maintenance costsHigh total cost of ownershipReliability/quality issuesHigh uncertainty about gen
99、eral hydrogen availabilityHigh upfront investmentsFCEVLimited battery lifetimeLong charging timeLimited driving rangeReliability/quality issuesConcerns about the sustainability of batteries31%30%24%23%28%27%23%21%21%Future of Commercial Mobility Survey among fleet operators,US&EuropeExhibit 720Prepa
100、ring the world for zero-emission trucks12 more giga-factories of batteries are needed to support ZE truck demand by 2030Total battery demand will grow about 22 times between 2020 and 2030.Trucks will take a minor share of this growth,representing up to 6 percent of total battery demand by 2030.Still
101、,battery demand from trucks in 2030 will roughly equal todays total battery demand across all applications.Although battery sizes can be 5 to 10 times larger than those for passenger cars,the expected total BEV truck production volume of approximately 700000 units globally in 2030 is negligible comp
102、ared to an expected production volume of 36 million BEV passenger cars by that time.Although production volumes of electric trucks will continue to grow beyond 2030,they will remain a relatively small end-use segment for batteries.Battery supply constraints are likely in 2030,so setting up the right
103、 battery sourcing strategy will be the key for truck manufacturers over the next few years.While large,global truck OEMs can benefit from joint sourcing and low cell pricing,smaller truck OEMs,integrators or retrofitters will likely face higher prices due to their smaller demand volumes.Truck player
104、s with less than 3-4 GWh of battery demand a year(the average annual battery production line output)will face even higher prices.This low negotiation power will also result in limited room for customized specifications in cell design,making it more difficult to trade off energy versus power.To achie
105、ve lower battery cell prices,truck players could form partnerships to increase volumes and negotiation power.They could also go through battery pack integrators,which could pool battery demand across participants to limit the price premiums,or they could try to leverage synergies with battery cell p
106、roduction for passenger cars.In supply-constrained times,battery makers ramping up new lines might prefer high-paying small volumes over low-cost large orders.Furthermore,battery packaging will be the key for trucks with modular battery designs.For example,an urban truck needs about half the battery
107、 size of a regional one,which is an ideal modular battery application.21Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksGlobal battery cell demand and supplyGWh1.Based on US,EU,and CN battery plant announcements which do not account for ramp-up issues;accounts for ramp-up issues and slow yield for share
108、 of announced capacity(15%of incumbents,25%of JV,35%of integrators,50%of startups)Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility(July 2022);McKinsey battery supply tracker(June 2022)3004003,6003,60012030 1854,3003,6002 22 2 X X-7 70 00 0Light vehicles(PC+LCV)&BusesOther applications(consumer,
109、storage,etc.)TrucksHigh likelihood supply1(6%)Current trajectory demandSupply1Global demand,United States,Europe&China supplyExhibit 8Current Trajectory Scenario 22Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksTrucks to consume just 4 percent of electricity demand in 2040Despite expected strong fleet
110、electrification,commercial vehicles(CVs)will account for only about 4 percent of global electricity demand by 2040,including electricity needed to produce H2 for FCEV trucks and buses.Consequently,ZE trucks will require only limited additional electricity generation.However,the high power requiremen
111、ts for fast chargers could pose challenges to local grids that will require significant upgrades.For BEVs to be truly emission-free,owners must recharge them using renewable sources of electricity.In 2019,about 40 percent of electricity production in the United States,Europe and China was from zero-
112、emission sources such as renewables and nuclear,which we expect to increase to 77 percent by 2040;a pool that a variety of transport applications will compete for.Today,in regions such as Europe and the US,BEVs are already cleaner than ICEs,a phenomenon that will spread globally before 2030,includin
113、g to India and China,thanks to the ongoing shifts from coal to cleaner energy sources.Trucks will only contribute a limited share to the expansion of hydrogen demand,accounting for only 15%of its growth and constituting almost 10 percent of global hydrogen demand in 2040.Hydrogen demand should pick
114、up strongly after 2030,as heavy-duty FCEVs enter the market at scale and stakeholders deploy the corresponding infrastructure.The smaller role in the overall hydrogen ecosystem means that FCEV trucks may also benefit from new technologies and scale in hydrogen production from other end-use sectors l
115、ike industrials or power.Although hydrogen production today relies heavily on fossil fuels,future hydrogen supply for trucks will likely come from“clean”sources,either in the form of blue(fossil fuel with carbon capture)or green(from renewable sources)hydrogen.FCEVs will also benefit from the substa
116、ntial increase in hydrogen demand in non-transport sectors,which will account for 80 percent of total hydrogen demand by 2030.Moving to at-scale production facilities and distribution networks,at-the-pump prices for hydrogen could drop by as much as 70 percent by 2040(compared with todays level).A f
117、aster scale-up of hydrogen supply before 2030 could be difficult due to the long lead times of required infrastructure investments,given the need to simultaneously deploy capital-intensive technologies such as renewables,electrolyzers,and refueling infrastructure.23Preparing the world for zero-emiss
118、ion trucks1.Based on US,EU,and CN battery plant announcements which do not account for ramp-up issues2.Includes electricity generated hydrogen used for FCEV vehiclesSource:McKinsey Global Energy PerspectiveElectricity demand,United States,Europe&ChinaTWhEU+US+CN Hydrogen demand,United States,Europe&
119、ChinaMtpa Energy demand by sectorExhibit 9Trucks1Other Road Transport1OtherTrucks2Other Road Transport2Non-Road Transport23,3982040Current Trajectory Scenario 88%8%4%204011477%15%8%24Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksRefueling infrastructure to cost$450 billion by 2040The roll-out of the r
120、efueling infrastructure required for BEVs and FCEVs will likely require investments of approximately USD 450 billion by 2040,most of which will probably focus on China,given its large truck fleet.Because both FCEV trucks and renewable hydrogen supply will reach scale later than BEVs,their infrastruc
121、ture roll-out will lag that of BEVs.Consequently,the BEV charging infrastructure roll-out will begin to saturate after 2040,whereas FCEV infrastructure deployment will likely more than double in the decade after 2040.The types of refueling technology will likely evolve.Early years will see slower ch
122、argers and smaller hydrogen refueling stations(HRS),8 gradually moving toward a higher share of fast chargers with 500 megawatts(MW)or more and HRS sizes of 4,000 kg daily capacity.Apart from operational benefits,higher-power chargers and larger HRS should lead to lower per-unit costs if utilized we
123、ll.The shift toward higher-power chargers will also help reduce the charging times required and thus decrease the downtime penalty of BEV trucks compared with FCEV trucks.8 Medium-sized HRS with daily hydrogen capacity of 480 kg and large stations with 1,000 kg 9 Also compare:https:/ For heavy-duty
124、long-haul truck in Europe,203011 When also taking into account fleet-depot chargers,the ratio decreases to 1.5 trucks per charger Because only two to three trucks will likely ensure the efficient utilization of a depot charger,EV charging infrastructure(EVCI)can scale faster at smaller fleets than H
125、RS,which require at least seven trucks per day to be cost-efficient.9 For these reasons,many expect BEV infrastructure to operate at fleet hubs(80 percent,compared with 20 percent along highways).In contrast,most FCEV infrastructure will probably be situated along highways or on key arterials(70 per
126、cent,versus 30 percent at fleet hubs).In both cases,investment into infrastructures will have to precede demand to enable trucks to even operate on zero-emission powertrains.On a per-truck basis,costs for refueling infrastructure will be substantially higher for BEV trucks(0.11 USD/kWh)than for FCEV
127、 trucks(0.03 USD/kWh).10 This reflects the expectation the network of charging infrastructure will be more widespread(with 1 public charger per 9 trucks11),whereas hydrogen refueling stations can be more concentrated to locations with high demand(with 1 HRS per 200+trucks).The overall energy costs w
128、ill be similar for BEV and FCEV,driven by the higher production costs of hydrogen.25Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksSource:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility,McKinsey Hydrogen InsightsInstalled charging capacity,cumulative in MW20222520403010503001,800180 xNorth AmericaEU30Greater China
129、1,800 MWtotal installed capacity by 2050Installed Hydrogen Refueling station Capacity,cumulative in ktons H23020228252040802,00025,0003 3 0 00 00 0 x xUSEuropeChina25 MTPA H2total installed capacity by 2040Investment charging infrastructure1,cumulative in bn USDInvestment Hydrogen Refueling Station
130、infrastructure,cumulative in bn USD-20 bn USDtotal investment required until 204056bn USDtotal investment required until 20-20302031-2040MDT&HDT charging infrastructure,North America,EU30&Greater ChinaExhibit 1015653000.5550Current Trajectory Scenario 1.Excl
131、uding potentially required upgrades of electricity grids26Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksThe trucking value chain will be re-shuffledThe ZE truck transition in commercial vehicles will disrupt the entire truck value chain and its players.New players,partnerships,and products are expecte
132、d.For example,the new battery value chain is a battleground among three players:large OEMs going directly into cell and pack manufacturing;incumbent tier-1 suppliers trying to enter the field;and pure battery integrator players that often specialize in packaging.Since 30-50%of the BEV truck price ca
133、n depend on the battery,this will remain a critical element in the value chain.Incumbent tier-1 suppliers will likely prepare for the ZEV transition by extending their portfolios into e-motors,plus potentially hydrogen tanks and fuel cells,but will likely face declining value pools for BEV trucks gi
134、ven the lower value per vehicle and OEMs that will vertically integrate on fuel cell powertrains.Incumbent OEMs in Western markets face new competition from established Asian EV truck and bus manufacturers,mainly from China and Korea,that already offer cost-competitive and proven BEV and FCEV trucks
135、 today.In addition,several start-ups have formed in the trucking space,designing purpose-built EV truck platforms that promise superior performance and efficiency versus legacy-based incumbent platforms.Charging infrastructure remains one of the largest bottlenecks,especially for heavy-duty long-hau
136、l trucks.However,the emergence of the megawatt charging standard(MCS)that allows charging speeds of 700-800kW can solve the technical challenge of truck charging.Likewise,OEMs are partnering to jointly solve the challenge of building out highway ultra-fast charging infrastructure in Europe.This way,
137、OEMs are moving down the value chain to give fleets confidence and likely are also hoping to access new value pools.In addition,the longer re-charging times for BEV trucks may trigger new business models around route optimization and advance reservations of overnight parking for trucks.Overall,the e
138、nergy and fuel spaces will remain competitive,with traditional oil and gas players seeing new players in the electricity and hydrogen energy provision system.For BEVs,about 60 percent of energy provision will shift to onsite charging in fleet depots,away from traditional refueling stations.The bigge
139、st value chain change will involve the shift toward trucks-as-a-service for ZE trucks.This change will affect vehicle provision,financing(i.e.,leasing),aftermarket parts and services,infrastructure,and energy provision.Given the high upfront capex of zero-emission trucks(two to four times that of di
140、esel trucks)combined with high technology and residual value risk(less clarity regarding a used vehicles“second life”),fleet providers will prefer leasing options that also take care of charging infrastructure provisions and maintenance.Regulation will likely also shape the structure of the future c
141、ommercial vehicle value chains.For example,the recently adopted Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)in the United States provides substantial subsidies in form of tax breaks but requires further localization of production and supply chains for truck models and components to qualify.Overall,the CV value chai
142、n will feel a greater impact from the zero-emission powertrain transition than passenger cars.Commercial vehicles will have higher complexity in powertrains and infrastructures with two complementary but different technologies,infrastructures,and fuels.But given their smaller scale,truck players are
143、 not large enough to occupy each step along the value chain by themselves(e.g.,batteries),requiring them to form partnerships to offer fleet operators the competitive products they demand.27Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksT Ti ie er r 1 1 s su up pp pl li ie er rs sB Ba at tt te er ry y
144、p pa ac ck kP Po ow we er r-t tr ra ai in nF FC C S Sy ys st te em mV Ve eh hi ic cl le e a as ss se em mb bl ly yR Ra aw w m ma at te er ri ia al ls sA Af ft te er r-m ma ar rk ke et tF Fi in na an nc ci ia al l s se er rv vi ic ce es sI In nf fr ra as st tr ru u-c ct tu ur re eE En ne er rg gy y&F
145、 Fu ue el lF Fl le ee et t o op pe er ra at ti io on ns sB Ba at tt te er ry y c ce el ll lE-powertrains mainly out-sourced so far,dominated by legacy powertrain players,but lower value per vehicle than for Diesel powertrainsInsourcing ZE powertrainsTruck OEMs starting to co-invest in large-scale ch
146、arging infrastructure roll-out to debottleneck consumer ZEV adoptionOEM JVSmaller OEMs likely to rely on integrators for cell sourcing and packaging,with larger OEMs already starting to in-source todayNew battery integratorsStrong competition in ZE truck re-fueling with traditional fuel retailers,ut
147、ility companies and hydrogen ecosystem players competing for market shareCompetition from new sectorsNew strong competition for incumbent players from Asian EV leaders and new EV startups with dedicated EV platform without ICE legacyStartup OEMs/Asian OEMsHigher upfront costs and larger technology r
148、isk to trigger shift towards new ownership and operating models,including integrated“as-a-service”concepts billed on a per-km basisTrucks as a serviceHigh-level value-chain movesExhibit 1128Preparing the world for zero-emission trucksConclusionOur capabilitiesMedium-and heavy-duty trucks are due for
149、 a major paradigm overhaul.By 2040,we believe some of the largest automotive markets in the world the EU,US and China will have transitioned most of their new commercial vehicles to zero-emission powertrains.At first,the transition will still require regulatory tailwinds through subsidies and other
150、incentives,but soon,the expected superior TCO performance will fuel much of the uptake of BEV and FCEV powertrains.The path to zero-emission trucking is plastered with uncertainties.Chief among them will be the question of the role BEV and FCEV powertrains will play in future truck fleets.With a con
151、tinued steep learning curve,both powertrains will be cheaper to operate than Diesel.However,they will have different profiles along technology costs,operational constraints and infrastructure availability,leading to a market in which trucks and their powertrains will be much more tailored to a fleet
152、s specific use cases and environment.BEV and FCEV will play complementary roles in this more complex new world,but the exact balance between them is not clear yet and will likely also vary by region.Players along the trucking value chain need to get ready for the disruption soon.With value pools shi
153、fting towards powertrain technologies such as batteries and fuel cell systems,some Diesel-specific incumbents will decide to focus on a sunset game,while others try to explore opportunities in zero-emissions trucks or innovative go-to-market strategies.They will meet new partners,but also new compet
154、ition from start-up OEMs to utility companies,who all claim a share of the zero-emission trucks market.Fleet operators in turn will benefit from lower operating costs,which will likely result in positive impacts for freight buyers,too.Over the next 1-2 decades,the new ecosystem will have huge challe
155、nges to solve.A first priority will be to reach technological maturity for BEV and FCEV powertrains,so that fleet operators trust them as much as diesel trucks today.But this alone will not be enough:More than USD 450 bn investments will be required to develop new recharging and refueling infrastruc
156、tures alone.These investments need to be made before zero-emission trucks can be deployed at scale,but they will only pay off once fleet sizes are large.In addition,a dozen giga-factories worth of battery supply will need to be developed,and renewable power generation expanded to support the decarbo
157、nization needs of not only transport,but wider society.Any additional acceleration in uptake of zero-emission trucks means a further scale-up across the whole value chain.Dont under-estimate the silent hum of a zero-emission truck.It is going to re-shape a whole industry.The McKinsey Center for Futu
158、re Mobility(MCFM)aims to help all stakeholders in the mobility ecosystem navigate the future by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future mobility scenarios.Our view of the trends reflects advanced multi-level driver-based models already validated across industries and play
159、ers.Each model is based on proprietary data and contributes to an integrated perspective on future mobility trends and scenarios including modal mix,miles traveled,vehicle sales,autonomy,powertrain electrification,battery demand,charging infrastructure,components,consumer behavior,and value/profit p
160、ools.This article leveraged insights from multiple MCFM models as well as contributions from Hydrogen Insights Refueling Infrastructure and Hydrogen Cost Perspective as well as from Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective.Please get in touch if you would like to learn more.29Preparing the world fo
161、r zero-emission trucksAuthors and contributors AuthorsHenrik BeckerChristian BegonVittorio BichucherJulian ConzadeBernd HeidPatrick HertzkeErik stgrenPatrick SchaufussAcknowledgmentsWe want to thank the teams of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility,Energy Insights,and Hydrogen Insights for their
162、various contributions to this publication,in particular Enric Auladell Bernat,Michaela Brandl,Saral Chauhan,Lauritz Fischer,Enrico Furnari,Christopher Martens,Tom RdelLayout,editing Lance Ealey Shuaib Mohamed MoinuddinMedia contactMartin Hattrup-Sliberbergmartin_hattrup-McKinsey Center for Future Mobility September 2022 Copyright McKinsey&Company Designed by Visual Media MEO McKinsey McKinsey