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1、Coffee Deep Dive-Waking Up to 2022Leading coffee brands have proven to be extremely resilient to thepandemic-induced dining downturn.Americans may not have been picking upa coffee on their way to work or school,but that did not prevent them fromstopping by their local coffee shop and stop by they di
2、d.In April 2021,foottraffic data for the coffee space shows that visits have essentially returned topre-COVID levels.And since May 2021,coffee visits have consistently outpaced2019 numbers,while the wider dining sector continued to struggle.Who is driving the growth?What brands are the main benefici
3、aries of this foottraffic increase?Are there any regional differences?And has COVID had anylong-term impact at all on this space?The following report answers these questions from a location analyticsperspective.We will analyze various visit numbers from 2021 for the sector asa whole and break down t
4、he data by brand and region to uncover additionalinsights.When relevant,we will compare metrics to equivalent metrics from2019 and 2020 to shed some light on the current coffee comeback and try andunderstand what made the sector so successful in 2021?And what liesahead for the coffee space in 2022?A
5、 Proven Necessity During COVIDThe coffee sub-sector has been booming for quite a while,even as the overalldining sector still struggles to return to its pre-pandemic visit levels.Looking atthe top ten performing coffee chains showed that coffee visits were already up2.8%year-over-two-year(Yo2Y)in Ju
6、ne 2021,while Yo2Y dining visitsnationwide remained 4.6%below June 2019 levels.More recently,the coffeespace witnessed Yo2Y growth of 8.4%and 7.5%in November and December,respectively,while overall dining experienced a decline in visits of 6.4%and1.8%in comparison to 2019.This foot traffic performan
7、ce is all the more impressive given the massivedisruptions to work and school that continue to persist.Prior to the pandemic,the coffee space seemed highly dependent on consumers work-life schedules.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiBut despite the dramatic shifts in daily schedules an
8、d work environment,coffee visits have not only recovered theyve skyrocketed.The numbers reveal that necessity and convenience are not the only twodrivers of coffee shop foot traffic.For the many coffee-drinkers working fromhome,making coffee in their kitchen is no replacement for the experience of a
9、trip to the coffee shop.It seems that,despite the substantial YoY growth inhome coffee machine sales between May 2020 and May 2021,homemadecoffee is only a part of the mix and many still look to the coffee served by aprofessional barista.The role of coffee shops as community hubs may also be driving
10、 visits.Asmore people looked for ways to meet with friends and family outdoors,buyinga coffee to-go and sitting on an outdoor bench transformed from a lame dateidea to a popular rendezvous concept.This“third place”concept is significantnot just for the short-term boost it provided,but for the long-t
11、erm strength itcould create in a professional context defined by hybrid work models.This 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aimay also be contributing to more extended coffee trips as visitors are makingless harried stops on their way to work.The Right Time and Place forCoffeeCoffee Seaso
12、nalityCoffee,like other retail and dining categories,has its own peak season,whichis revealed by analyzing the month-over-month(MoM)change in visits to threemajor coffee chains through the years 2018,2019,and 2021.(We chose toomit 2020,which was not representative due to COVID lockdowns andregulatio
13、ns.)2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiThis analysis reveals that visits in March are consistently strong compared toFebruary:March MoM visits for 2018,2019,and 2021 were up 16.9%,7.8%,and 50%,for Starbucks;22.4%,11.7%,and 43.2%,for Dunkin;and 28.4%,28.4%,and 41.4%,for Dutch Bros.These
14、March peaks are much higher thanwould be expected based solely on the increase in days March has around10%more days than February and are consistent with a seasonal pattern.The significant increase in March visits can be explained by the leading coffeechains coming out with their spring coffee menus
15、 as the weather begins towarm up.The spring spike can also be attributed to the fact that iced coffeedrinks,which often require special equipment and ingredients,are harder tomake at home than hot drinks so customers who may opt to drink theircoffee in the comfort of their home during the winter hea
16、d out to coffee shopswhen the weather heats up.But while March and spring in general may drive a foot traffic increaseacross the coffee space,fall brings with it a more brand-specific seasonalpeak.Location analytics shows that MoM visits to Starbucks rise in Novemberand December:November MoM Starbuc
17、ks visits were up 8.6%,6.9%,and14.6%,in the years 2018,2019,and 2021,respectively,while foot traffic to theother chains analyzed remained more or less steady.This speaks to thesuccess of the chains fall menu especially its well-known pumpkin spicelatte.Starbucks can largely be credited for creating
18、the premium coffee chaincategory in the United States,and its consistent visit surge in the fall furtherillustrates the brands deep understanding of marketing and humanpsychology.Starbucks knows how to leverage peoples natural loss-aversion FOMO,to use millennial-speak by creating limited-edition dr
19、inks and cups,2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aisuch as the now classic red cups for the holiday season,so that customers feellike they are missing out when they do not partake in the time-sensitiveoffering.As the coffee space continues to heat up,other brands can learnfrom this by cre
20、ating their own special seasonal drinks and packaging to boostvisits during otherwise unremarkable times.Shifts in Regional LoyaltiesAlthough nearly every state experienced a Yo2Y increase in Q3 and Q4 coffeevisits,zooming into the foot traffic data on a regional level reveals someinteresting discre
21、pancies.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiLooking at Q4 2021 state-by-state visits to Starbucks,for example,shows thatthe brand experienced a much stronger Yo2Y growth in New York(30.5%)thanit did in California(1.2%).Dunkin,on the other hand,performed exceptionallywell in California,wi
22、th a 28.8%Yo2Y growth in visits in Q4.In the past,Starbucks was more popular on the West Coast,while Dunkin dominated theEast Coast but these numbers may indicate that the brands are increasinglyencroaching on each others turf.Data from Texas further illustrates that regional loyalties are becoming
23、moredynamic.Dunkins Q3 Yo2Y growth in the Lone Star State outperformedStarbucks but the situation reversed in Q4,when Starbucks increase in visitsoutpaced Dunkins.This increased cross shopping within the coffee sector isespecially important considering the wide array of players existing in orexpandi
24、ng the space.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiCity Cafs Making a ComebackVisit growth also varied within regions specifically,between urban andsuburban locations of the same chain.Comparing Q4 2021 to Q4 2019 visitsfor urban and suburban Starbucks locations in five major CBSAs highlig
25、hts thisdistinction.In four out of five CBSAs examined,city branches performedbetter,on average,than suburban ones.This is an encouraging sign for cities,as it may indicate that at least some ofthe people who had been working from home for much of the past year and ahalf are now returning to their c
26、ity-based offices and grabbing a coffee fromthe local Starbucks along the way.It also speaks to a potential rise in longercity visits as hybrid work environments take hold there as well.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiShifts in Coffee-Drinking BehaviorPatternsA Routine-Driven Sector?
27、The coffee sectors dependence on work,school,and shopping patterns wastaken for granted before the pandemic.It seemed obvious that a large shareof the demand for coffee outside the home was driven by consumers wantingto refuel while going about their daily routines.But coffees surge over thepast six
28、 months shows that while the category is definitely complementary toa variety of other sectors,the demand for coffee can stand alone.Still,thedecoupling of the coffee space from office and school routines has affectedvisit patterns in a variety of ways.Visits Remain ShorterIn Q2 2020,following the o
29、utbreak of the pandemic,many major coffee chainssaw a dramatic decrease in their median length of stay.Starbucks medianlength of stay decreased from 34 minutes in Q1 of 2020 to 26 minutes in Q2,Paneras from 41 minutes to 31 minutes,and Caribou Coffee from 45 minutesto 38 minutes.This is most likely
30、due to the reality of life during a pandemic,as visitors probably preferred not to linger indoors with other strangers.Notably,however,none of the coffee chains analyzed have seen median visitsreturn to their pre-pandemic duration so shorter visits and a preference forshorter visits may be here to s
31、tay.At the same time,and given the constant 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiemergence of new variants,the persistence of shorter visits may simply reflectthe fact that COVID is still with us.The Rise in Late Morning Visits is LastingAnother seemingly lasting COVID-induced shift in co
32、ffee visits is the rise in latemorning visits.Perhaps due to the drop in work commutes and more flexibleschedules,the share of early morning coffee visits between the hours of 6AM and 9 AM dropped with the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020.A yearlater,however,with the partial return to the office in
33、Q2 2021,the share ofearly morning visits bounced back and has since exceeded pre-COVID levels.On the other hand,the share of late morning visits between 9 AM and 12 PM increased in Q2 2020,and has remained higher than its pre-pandemic levelever since:In Q1 2020,late morning visits accounted for 23.4
34、%of total visits,but by Q4 2021,visits between 9 AM and 12 PM accounted for 26.2%of all 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aivisits.This rise in late morning visits seems to come at the expense of visits inthe late afternoon between 3 PM and 6 PM.The proportion of these visitsdecreased gr
35、adually during the pandemic and has yet to return to itspre-pandemic normal.The change in hours may have a significant impact on the experienceconsumers crave during their visit.Early morning coffee seekers may look fordifferent products and a different spatial layout than late afternoon andevening
36、ones.Coffee chains that can identify the current needs of theirconsumers as opposed to catering to the needs of their pre-pandemicpatrons can gain a leg up on the competition.The Strongest Coffee BrandsStarbucks and Dunkin are usually the first brands that come to mind whenthinking of national coffe
37、e chains.But there are several other national coffee 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiplayers,and diving into the nationwide Yo2Y visit trends of these other majorbrands can tell us a lot about the current balance of power within this space.The most prominent jump in Yo2Y visits belon
38、gs to Dutch Bros.Coffee.TheOregon-based company has expanded its reach from around 250 stores toalmost 500 stores in the past five and a half years,and plans to reach 800locations by 2026.The brands astronomical rise can be attributed to itssignificant expansion both to new markets and within states
39、 where it alreadyhad a strong presence,and to its drive-thru-based business model,which wasparticularly well suited to the realities of life under COVID.So far,Dutch Bros.expansion isnt having a significant impact on visits to thecurrent kings of coffee Starbucks and Dunkin.Both brands have had arem
40、arkable year and returned to their pre-pandemic level of foot traffic byMarch 2021.Now,Dunkin has been on a growth streak since May,whileStarbucks has seen consistent and strong Yo2Y visit increases since July.Other leading chains such as Caribou Coffee,Peets Coffee&Tea,Tim Hortons,and The Coffee Be
41、an have all witnessed a similar foot traffic pattern agradual growth in foot traffic throughout the year,almost reachingpre-pandemic visit levels in July,and followed by a gradual Yo2Y decreasethroughout the last two quarters of 2021.While the fall in visits over thesecond half of 2021 is most likel
42、y due to the emergence of the Delta variant inAugust and the Omicron variant in December rather than any inherentweakness in these brands,the downturn still illustrates how significant theremaining challenges are.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiLeading Breakfast Players Also Exhibit
43、Varying Visit PatternsLeading breakfast players have also experienced varying visit patterns thisyear.Georgia-based Waffle House and Florida-based First Watch had anextraordinary year in visits,with First Watch seeing sustained Yo2Y foot trafficgrowth since March 2021 and Waffle Houses Yo2Y visits u
44、p since April.FirstWatch,which recently celebrated its IPO,has been expanding its store fleetand is approaching profitability,is likely to have an equally strong 2022.And24-hour Waffle House,which has cultivated a large and loyal customer basesince its founding in 1955,seems equally capable of weath
45、ering any futurestorm that may still come its way.Visit patterns to other breakfast players such as Panera Bread and IHOP arereminiscent of the visit patterns at some of the coffee providers,with summerfoot traffic reaching near-2019 levels before rising COVID cases limited visits.Yet,even with the
46、surge in COVID cases,both chains have seen visit rates farcloser to 2019 levels than they were early in 2021.This indicates that asignificant part of both audiences have grown accustomed to the new COVID 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aireality and still make visits a part of their ov
47、erall food mix.While a decline incases would certainly be welcome,the continued resiliency for both is notable.Cross-Drinking PatternsOne Chains Expansion Changes the Balance of PowerStarbucks and Dunkin experienced significant Yo2Y visit increases in thesecond half of 2021,despite Dutch Bros.massiv
48、e expansion.Still,foot trafficdata indicates that the rise of the new-ish kid on the block has the potential toalter the balance of power between the major coffee giants.Taking California as a test case is revealing.Dutch Bros.is accelerating itsexpansion in the Golden State,and has seen a 170%avera
49、ge growth in visitsbetween January 2020 and December 2021,largely due to its store fleetexpansion.And almost every quarter since Q2 2020,there has been an 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiincrease in the percentage of Starbucks and Dunkin visitors in California whoalso visited Dutch B
50、ros.In Q1 2020,only 3.3%of Starbucks California visitorsand only 3.6%of Dunkin California visitors also visited a Dutch Bros.But by Q42021,that percentage grew to 5.4%,and 5.8%,respectively.But despite the increase in Starbucks and Dunkin customers visiting DutchBros.,Starbucks and Dunkins customer
51、loyalty has not suffered.Locationanalytics show that following a small decline at the beginning of COVID,theaverage number of visits per visitor for these two chains has now returned topre-pandemic levels.The fact that the increase in Dutch Bros.visits has notharmed the other coffee leaders indicate
52、s that this is a robust market withroom at the top for several players and that a consistently diverse coffee mixis often the preference for many visitors.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiCoffee DemographicsResearch has shown that the success of coffee brands lies as much in theirmark
53、eting as in the actual product they provide.Brands like Starbucks haveredefined how people consume coffee,whether by branding and popularizingthe category of premium coffee,personalizing a mass-produced product bywriting customer names on cups,or drawing on customers FOMO withseasonal drinks and men
54、us.Its been almost 30 years since Starbucks IPO,and many of the techniquespioneered by the Seattle-based coffee behemoth are now commonplace,withcoffee brands of all sizes now frame their coffee as more than just a beverage.Instead,coffee drinks are marketed as comfort foods,performanceenhancers,and
55、 guilty pleasures that can meet consumers deepestpsychological needs.And in order to create a coffee experience that can trulyfulfill their consumers desires,coffee retailers need to have a thoroughunderstanding of who their customers are.This section will explore coffeechain demographics and discus
56、s some of the critical questions that coffeebrands should be asking themselves about the homes and financial situationof their customers.How Far are They Coming From?Comparing the average True Trade Area(TTA)and population across some ofthe major coffee chains over the last year reveals some fascina
57、ting differencesbetween the demographics of the leading coffee brands.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiWhile Starbucks and Caribou Coffee have the largest average TTA 79 and 73sq.miles,respectively their average trade area population is very different.Starbucks average TTA population
58、stands at 182.9K,while Caribou Coffeesaverage TTA population is only 86K.So although the two chains locations tendto attract customers from similar distances,Starbucks locations TTA tend tobe much more densely populated which means that the brand can reachmany more people over the same distance.Dunk
59、in and Tim Hortons lie at the other end of the TTA spectrum,withaverage TTAs of 42 and 38 sq.miles,respectively.The fact that Dunkin andTim Hortons branches tend to cater more to the local community than doesStarbucks or Caribou Coffee can have a significant impact on marketing andpromotions strateg
60、ies.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiCoffees Appeal Across Household IncomesThe average household income for visitors of the five coffee chains analyzed ismore or less aligned with the national benchmark for average HHI.And whilethere are discrepancies between the chains Tim Hortons a
61、nd Dunkin havehigher percentages of lower HHI visitors,while Caribou Coffee visitors have ahigher median HHI the range of difference is not major.This points tocoffees appeal across a broad range of incomes and demonstrates thesuccess that the leading coffee players have had in transforming their pr
62、oductinto an everyday and essential commodity.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aiKey TakeawaysThe demand for coffee is strong The significant Yo2Y surge in coffee visitsover the past six months shows that while coffee is definitely complementaryto a variety of other sectors,the demand f
63、or coffee is significant and largelyunaffected by disruptions in other categories.And the fact that coffee visitshave been on a growth streak while the dining sector continues to struggleshows that coffee is in a league of its own,and will likely continue to thriveeven more in 2022 as the demand for
64、 dining continues to recover.This realitypoints to the unique nature of this sector and its ability to adapt to shiftingconsumer behaviors-making confidence in its long term strength all the moreobvious.There is enough room at the top for multiple players Dunkins massiveYo2Y visit growth in Californ
65、ia coupled with Starbucks impressive Yo2Y growthin New York along with Dutch Bros.meteoric rise not coming at the expenseof either Dunkin or Starbucks indicates that while the days of one coffeebrand monopolizing a given region are drawing to a close,the coffee demandis strong enough that it can sus
66、tain several national leaders.In fact,the datashows that multiple chains can be part of a single individuals coffee mix byproviding different values and products depending on the demand.Coffee brands can create their own seasonality Starbucks has managedto create its own unique seasonality in the fa
67、ll through its time-sensitiveofferings such as the famed pumpkin-spice latte and red holiday cup.Othercoffee brands can learn from these methods to create their own 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.aibrand-specific seasonal peaks.This ability to own the calendar is unique andspeaks to a
68、 powerful potential across the sector.COVID-induced shifts in visit patterns may impact consumerexpectations Some COVID-related shifts in visit patterns specificallyshorter visits and more late morning visits at the expense of early eveningones are still enduring.These shifts may affect the type of
69、experience thatvisitors are after,and brands that understand what 2022 coffee consumerswant instead of catering to pre-pandemic demand will have a leg up.More recent COVID waves are affecting secondary players,while leadingbrands continue to grow Secondary coffee players such as Caribou Coffee,Peets
70、 Coffee&Tea,Tim Hortons,and The Coffee Bean&Tea Leaf almostclosed the Yo2Y visit gap in July,but the Delta and subsequent Omicron wave seem to have clipped their wings.Meanwhile,Starbucks,Dunkin,andDutch Bros.continued to enjoy steady Yo2Y growth throughout the secondhalf of 2021 which shows how muc
71、h more vulnerable smaller coffee playersare to COVID-induced fluctuations.Trade area is not the only thing that matters Caribou Coffees TTA isalmost double that of Dunkin Donuts,yet Dunkin,which has figured out thesecret to local marketing,is a significantly larger brand that draws morevisitors so m
72、ore important than aiming for a large TTA is understandingwhere a brands customers are coming from,and how the brand can bestmarket itself to those customers,whether they are coming from 5 or 50 milesaway.What will the coffee space look like in 2022?Visit Placer.ai to find out.2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|
73、More insights at placer.aiSources:1.At-Home Coffee Consumption Climbs to 81%Amidst Pandemichttps:/ third place:What is it&how does it relate to coffee shops?https:/ Unveils Its Spring 2021 Menu And Oat Milk Is the Starhttps:/ Spice to the Rescuehttps:/www.placer.ai/blog/pumpkin-spice-to-the-rescue/5
74、.5 Genius Ways Starbucks Used Psychology to Become the King of Coffeehttps:/ coffee splits the United States in halfhttps:/ Bytes:Dutch Bros.and Crocshttps:/www.placer.ai/blog/placer-bytes-dutch-bros-and-crocs/8.Dutch Bros Surges Onto Wall Street with Dreams of 4,000 Locationshttps:/ Bros Coffee sal
75、es are brewing in new marketshttps:/ Bytes:First Watch and Stapleshttps:/www.placer.ai/blog/first-watch-and-staples/11.Breakeven On The Horizon For First Watch Restaurant Group,Inc.https:/ Watch eyes significant growth following first day as public companyhttps:/ Rise of Waffle Househttps:/ 2022 Pla
76、cer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai14.Dutch Bros focuses on Texas,Oklahoma and California as expansion accelerateshttps:/ Starbucks Successful Because of Its Coffee,or Something Else?https:/ Youd Invested$10,000 in Starbucks IPO,This Is How Much Money Youd Have Nowhttps:/ ingredients in the pos
77、t-pandemic food storyhttps:/ Dutch Bros the Next Starbucks?https:/ riddle of the red cup:How Starbucks made a reusable container a holiday traditionhttps:/ to Meet The Needs of Todays Coffee Shop Customerhttps:/ the Delta variant is upending restaurantshttps:/ Donuts Bridges National And Local With#KeepOn Campaignhttps:/ 2022 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai