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1、March Logistics21China Macro032Regional reviews083Investment market164Outlook20China Logistics3China MacroChina LogisticsLogistics values reach new heightsSource:CFLP,Savills ResearchChinas logistics value grew 3.4%in 2022 to RMB347.6 trillion,while the total revenue of the logistics industry reache
2、d RMB 12.7 trillion,up 4.7%YoY.Railway transport,cold chain facilities,and express delivery maintained higher growth rates.The national railway network transported 3.9 billion tons of goods,up 4.7%YoY,the highest in nearly three years.Cold-chain logistics market size is expected to exceed RMB 450-49
3、0 billion in 2022.Express delivery volumes totalled 110.6 billion parcels,a net increase of 2.3 billion over the previous year.International logistics continue to unlock new routes and expand existing channels with 16,000 China-Europe freight trains operated and 1.6 million TEUs shipped in 2022,up 9
4、%and 10%YoY respectively.Meanwhile,the New Land-Sea Corridor in western China maintained strong growth momentum,with 756,000 TEUs shipped in 2022,up 18.5%YoY.Chinas expanding national logistics network fuels demand for logistics real estate4China Logistics Value by product category200220240260280300
5、3203403602000212022RMB trnAgricultural ProductIndustrial ProductImported GoodRenewable ResourceConsumer GoodChina LogisticsFDI increases despite headwindsSource:Ministry of Commerce,Savills ResearchFDI drives industrial&logistics demand5Utilized foreign direct investment(FDI)to
6、talled US$189.1 bn(RMB1.23 trn).Despite the continuous business disruption and lockdowns throughout the year,investment grew 8%YoY and 6.8%5YR CAGR.The Yangtze River Delta region is still the most attractive region for foreign capital.Key sectors of growth have been high-tech manufacturing which gre
7、w by 28.3%YoY,and the automobile(including EVs)sector which recorded an increase of 264%,driving the demand for high-standard factory and warehouse space.China remains a critical component of the global supply chain.Covid policies,trade tensions,rising costs and other considerations have encouraged
8、international firms to consider augmenting or replacing part or all of their supply chain to markets such as Vietnam and India.Additionally,targeted export restrictions in sectors such as semiconductors will force companies to look for domestic substitutes.While these may not be on par with internat
9、ional peers,increased sales revenues will allow domestic manufacturers to invest more in R&D and begin narrowing the technological divide.0000212022USD bnUtilized Foreign Direct InvestmentChina LogisticsCold chain catalystDemand for fresh food a
10、nd pharmaceutical products surged during covid with increased attention being paid to food safety and standards,boosting demand for the cold storage sector.Societal changes present prior to covid were also accelerated.More and more families have both parents working while working hours are lengtheni
11、ng with work creeping into personal lives.Also,others are deciding to get married later on in life or choosing to live a more solitary lifestyle.While restaurant food delivery services have recovered many are choosing to continue to cook at home but do not have the time to prepare food or require sm
12、aller portions,driving demand for ready-to-cook or preprepared cooking ingredients.At the same time,some restaurants are also looking to reduce labour and real estate costs by having more of the food preparation happening off-site.According to CITIC Securities,the market for pre-prepared dishes is e
13、xpected to reach about RMB1 trillion in the next decade.More cold chain facilities are therefore incorporating production lines to clean,process and package food enabling consumers to receive Ready-To-Cook packages on their doorsteps.“Quality Evaluation of Prepared Dishes”specifies that frozen prepa
14、red dishes should be stored at temperatures below-18C while refrigerated prepared dishes should be stored at temperatures between 0C and 4C.As income levels rise,consumers requirements for food diversity,nutrition,and taste are rising.The development of the cold chain market remains at a very nascen
15、t stage of development with structural changes likely to propel growth for decades to come.From fresh food e-commerce to ready-to-eat meals6China LogisticsCourier Express GrowthSource:CFLP,Savills ResearchLivestreaming e-commerce cities climb up the rankings7RankCityParcelsdelivered(mn)2018-2022 CAG
16、RRevenue per parcel1Jinhua-Yiwu11,8052.902Guangzhou10,1318.303Shenzhen5,80010.384Jieyang3,7294.775Hangzhou3,4859.636Dongguan2,88110.037Shanghai2,85864.588Shantou2,4575.039Suzhou2,43510.2310Quanzhou2,1085.9411Beijing1,95614.9012Wuhan1,8468.6213Chengdu1,7609.2814Wenzhou1,6766.1515Foshan1,58411.0116Zhe
17、ngzhou1,4858.8317Shijiazhuang1,4625.9118Ningbo1,4419.0519Linyi1,4344.6120Taizhou1,3985.24Top 20 cities by parcels deliveredOnline and tech platforms have been a key focus for regulators,sometimes to the detriment of a particular sector such as online education,but in other sectors to curb monopolist
18、ic behaviour creating new opportunities for entrants such as with the e-commerce sector which has seen the entry of byte-dance and little red book.Despite weaker consumer sentiment online sales continued to grow with new channels for consumer engagement emerging like live streaming and social commer
19、ce,with the total number of parcels delivered growing to 110.6 billion in 2022.Out of the top 50 cities for parcel deliveries,Jieyang and Shantou in Guangdong province stand out for their phenomenal growth over the last four years driven by government-supported industry planning,infrastructure and a
20、daptive manufacturing cluster.However most important was the entrepreneurial spirit of the smaller firms in these cities and the democratisation of sales channels that the growth of these new platforms allowed.20022China Logistics8*Unless otherwise stated,rents refer to face rent incl.pro
21、ject management fees and excl.tax.Regional reviewsChina Logistics80900140150H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H220002120222023E2024EH1/2015 =100First tierSatelliteOthersNation-wide rental indexSteady rental growth forecast as supply levels abate9Base period:2015H
22、1First-tier cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,ShenzhenSatellite cities:Tianjin,Langfang,Jiaxing,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Foshan,Dongguan,HuizhouOther cities:Shenyang,Qingdao,Jinan,Wuxi,Nanjing,Ningbo,Hangzhou,Fuzhou,Xiamen,Xian,Chengdu,Chongqing,Kunming,Guiyang,Wuhan,Zhengz
23、hou,ChangshaSource:Savills ResearchLogisticsKey market comparison performanceNorthern China struggles with oversupply0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2BeijingShenyangJinanQingdaoTianjinLangfangShanghaiHangzhouGreater SuzhouNingboNanjingJiaxingChangshaWuhanZhengzhouChengduKunmingGuiyangXianCho
24、ngqingShenzhenDongguanFoshanHuizhouGuangzhoumn sqmSupply(LHS)Take-up(LHS)Vacancy(RHS)China LogisticsNorthern China11StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateBeijing2.44 61.07.8%Tianjin5.36 30.925.6%Langfang2.94 33.455.7%Shenyang1.69 23.111.8%Jinan1.91 28.816.7%Qingdao1.29 25.88.4%Shenyang Shenyang re
25、ceived 84,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Shenyang is the regional centre of Northeastern China and key hub in Chinas belt and road initiative.Demand is driven by the citys role as a key distribution hub as well as the needs of ecommerce,food processing and equipment manufacturing companies.Tianjin As
26、 the largest warehouse market in Northern China,Tianjin received 589,400 sqm of new supply in 2022.Submarkets along the Beijing-Tianjin expressway are likely to be buoyed by the relaxation of covid-control and the expected rebound in intercity transportation related demand.Jizhou,an emerging submark
27、et,will better serve demand in Northern Tianjin and develop stronger connection with Beijing.Langfang Langfang received record levels of supply in 2022 with 756,200 sqm added to the market,the largest volume in Northern China.Removal of cross-provincial border restrictions combined with a recovery i
28、n demand and lower rents could help entice tenants away from Beijing.Nevertheless,it is going to be another year or two before vacancy rates can fall to more sustainable levels.Traditionally Grade A projects focus on Guangyang and Anci districts near the BeijingTianjin expressway.Source:Savills Rese
29、archNB:Langfang projects near BDIA(Beijing Daxing International Airport)are excluded from Langfang figures and included in Beijing figures.Projects in Qihe County,Dezhou are included in Jinan figures.Beijing Beijing received 279,800 sqm supply in 2022.Strict border control combined with a strong con
30、sumer market,has spurred the local demand for warehouse spaces.As newly planned logistics hubs,BDIA&Pinggu submarkets are anticipated to receive a surge of new supply in the coming years.Jinan Jinan received 232,800 sqm supply in 2022.Shandongs key inland city,Jinans Grade A warehouse market predomi
31、nately fulfils the needs of consumers from the surrounding region.Restrictive city planning has pushed new development to Qihe in the west where GLP,Prologis and other warehouse developers have established a presence.Qingdao Major tenants are local retailers from home appliance and furniture manufac
32、turing industries.Qingdao received a large amount of supply during 2020-2021 as the citys airport was relocated across the bay in Jiaozhou.Nevertheless,overall remained supply-demand balance.Qingdaos 2022 status as multimodal transportation hub of the China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)Loca
33、l Economic and Trade Cooperation Demonstration Area,is expected to boost logistics demand significantly.China LogisticsEastern China12Suzhou Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang together form Chinas the biggest logistics market in China.Changshu doubled its stock with more than 80
34、0,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Affordable rents and established industry clusters continue to attract manufacturing companies from other regions benefitting the local warehouse market.Shanghai Qingpu and Jinshan received new projects in 2022,attracting regional food manufacturers,express delivery f
35、irms,and petrochemical companies.Weaker consumer sentiment resulted in diminishing demand and withdrawals by some general retail tenants(fast fashion&cosmetics),while manufacturing tenants reassessed their warehousing needs with some choosing to seek more affordable premises closer to production cen
36、tres.Despite headwinds,express delivery firms continued to drive growth throughout the year.Hangzhou Hangzhou received 295,200 sqm new supply in 2022 focusing on the citys major logistics submarket Xiaoshan.As the national base of livestream ecommerce,3PLs and ecommerce remained as Hangzhous major t
37、enants.Invest heavily in building cross border ecommerce.Nanjing Nanjing received 227,000 sqm of new supply in 2022,with projects located in Jiangning&Liuhe.Strong consumer base in Nanjing.With supply levels having peaked in 2021 occupancy levels are anticipated to gradually improve in 2023.StockMn
38、sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateShanghai6.80 49.610.6%Suzhou8.19 36.114.0%Jiaxing4.08 32.431.0%Ningbo2.34 31.920.7%Hangzhou3.32 35.413.0%Nanjing2.32 31.522.6%Ningbo Ningbo received 356,500 sqm of new supply in 2022,with projects located in Cixi&Yuyao submarkets.Reduced cargo shipping resulted in vac
39、ancy rates rising by 5.7 ppts in 2022.Key logistics bases are being developed for the airport courier centre,Beilun cross-border ecommerce centre,and Yuyao distribution centre.Source:Savills ResearchNB:Hangzhou includes some Huzhou&Shaoxing projectsJiaxing Jiaxing received 75,000 sqm supply in 2022
40、with projects in Pinghu&Jiashan.Demand came from strong local manufacturing and up/down stream industries,as well as spillover requirements from Shanghai.The market has attracted not only mature developers like ESR and Mapletree,but also newcomers like Hilltop to invest in Jiaxing.China LogisticsSou
41、thern China13Dongguan Dongguan received 210,000 sqm supply in 2022.A recovery in the manufacturing sector and sizeable spillover demand from Shenzhen helped keep Dongguan vacancy rates at frictional levels.Average rents remain higher than Guangzhou,and only second to Shenzhen in the region.Huizhou H
42、uizhou received 50,000 sqm supply in 2022.The smaller consumer base compared to Shenzhen and Dongguan mean that warehousing demand predominantly come from local manufacturers in electronic devices and automobile sectors.Foshan Foshan received 310,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Apart from local manufa
43、cturing firms(home appliance and auto parts),demand comes predominantly from cross border ecommerce firms.The eastern modern logistics clustered along Highway S55 is a key focus of future development and will see new supply handed over in the coming years.StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateGuan
44、gzhou2.55 42.911.0%Shenzhen0.50 60.81.2%Dongguan2.26 43.91.6%Foshan2.68 35.03.0%Huizhou1.06 35.68.0%Source:Savills ResearchGuangzhou Guangzhou received 530,000 sqm new supply in 2022.Unlike Shenzhen and Dongguan,Guangzhou possesses a large industrial land reserve from Zengcheng to Nansha,ensuring ad
45、equate supply in the coming years.Demand primarily comes from 3PLs and e-commerce firms.Shenzhen Yantian Port GLP Park handed over its third phase in 2022,adding 60,000 sqm(partially bonded)supply to the Shenzhen market.Average rent in Shenzhen remain the highest in the country.Extremely limited lan
46、d reserves,stubbornly low vacancy rates and record setting rents have meant that new developments now reach six floors high.Even lower quality development are almost fully pre-leased.China LogisticsWestern China14Chongqing Chongqing has been significantly affected by covid disruption,extreme tempera
47、tures and deteriorating trade relations.The market has witnessed growing demand from consumer goods and pharmaceutical firms.As the key distribution hub of Chongqing,the Western Logistics Park(西部物流园)performed better than other submarkets.Submarkets like Chongqing Airport and Western Logistics Park w
48、itnessed several land transactions in 2022,pushing up supply levels in the coming years.Guiyang Guiyang received 380,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Non-bonded logistics market predominantly served local needs,similar to Kunming.Guiyangs future is tied to the big data industry.The improvement of techn
49、ological innovation and integration of real and digital economies will help to stimulate related logistics development and enhance logistics infrastructure and services.Kunming Kunmings non-bonded warehouse market predominantly serves local consumers and retailers.Despite relatively stable occupancy
50、 rates,landlords have lowered their rental expectations given challenging economic conditions.Apart from large retailers like Yunnan Tobacco,leasing demand also comes from ecommerce platforms like JD.com.Chengdu Demand and rents remained stable throughout the year despite covid disruption and power
51、outages.Rapid growth from the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors drove demand for cold storage.Relaxed covid controls,coupled with its large and growing population,demand for quality warehouse space in Chengdu is expected to grow significantly in coming years.StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy R
52、ateXian3.23 26.018.5%Chengdu5.58 24.58.5%Chongqing5.30 20.422.9%Kunming1.12 26.310.0%Guiyang1.25 27.011.2%Xian Xian received 230,000 sqm new supply in 2022,with a further 400,000 sqm expected to complete in 2023.Firms are fiercely competing for space in the vicinity of the citys airport.Demand from
53、the new economy sectors like NEVs,buoyed leasing demand in the ETDZ submarket.Source:Savills ResearchNB:Some Xianyang projects are included in Xian figuresSome Meishan&Deyang projects are included in Chengdu figuresChina LogisticsCentral China15Changsha Changsha recorded very limited supply in the l
54、ast two years.Changsha is a city of entertainment and a key consumption centre,this in addition to its central location connecting east and west,as well as north and south will continue to drive demand for Grade A warehouse space.Strong demand and limited supply have ensured steady rental growth.Wuh
55、an Wuhan received 887,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.The market will take time to absorb this new supply,with vacancy rates already elevated and rents already the lowest out of the three central cities.Growing demand from cold chain operators and 3PLs will help boost demand and help rents stabilize i
56、n the coming years.StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateZhengzhou2.27 26.132.2%Wuhan5.81 22.525.2%Changsha1.68 30.110.4%Zhengzhou Zhengzhous non-bonded Grade A warehouse stock is mainly located in the Economic Technology&Development Zone and near Xinzheng Airport.Zhengzhou received nearly 600,000
57、 sqm of supply in 2022,pushing the vacancy rate to 32.2%.Industrial upgrading is generating new demand for smarter logistics facilities,as well as more cold chain and central kitchen facilities.Source:Savills ResearchNB:Some Kaifeng projects are included in Zhengzhou figures;Some Xiaogan&Ezhou proje
58、cts are included in Wuhan figures;Some Xiangtan projects are included in Changsha figuresChina Logistics16China LogisticsIndustrial sector still highly sought afterSource:Savills ResearchIndustrial-targeted funds account for almost 80%of fundraising in 202217Fundraising by target sectorsThe industri
59、al&logistics sectors are highly sought-after asset classes and have been singled out in recent fundraising activities for special attention.Industrial&logistics funds have accounted for more than half of fundraising in three out of the last four years(the exception being 2021 when Sino-Ocean raised
60、two significant office funds).In 2022,the figure reached close to 80%.New investors have also entered the market,with domestic investors and developers dominating the logistics market in the past two years.05005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20
61、21 2022US$bnDiversifiedHospitalityIndustrialLandOfficeResidentialRetailChina LogisticsContinued expansion or change in strategy?Source:Savills ResearchChart refers to for-lease Grade A non-bonded dry warehouse assetsThe top 10 developers market share of Chinas Grade A warehouse stock fell from 80.5%
62、in 2017 to 69.3%in 2022.While GLP remains first in terms of area under management,several small and mid-scale developers have expanded aggressively over the past five years.VX grew its area under management to more than 10 million sqm(7.5%of the market and second by scale).Nevertheless,their pace of
63、 expansion has slowed in recent years as land acquisition becomes more challenging and it takes longer to lease up newly constructed developments.Most of VXs expansion happened before 2020 with the firm increasingly focusing on cold chain,automation and asset-light operations.More and more developer
64、s are similarly looking to focus on the operational efficiency of existing developments while working with equity partners to develop asset-light models.Top 10 market share shrinks as more investors enter the market1830.72%21.56%23.13%36.80%7.50%4.74%6.77%5.04%6.54%5.91%6.17%5.33%5.10%4.90%4.95%7.15
65、%3.64%0.94%2.86%4.41%2.63%3.23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20222017OthersGLPVXMapletreeBlogisESRPrologisGoodmanDNEYupeiPing AnChina LogisticsYields bottom outInvestors take the temperature of the markets in first and leading second-tier cities19Investment factsNOI yields are softening,as more s
66、upply,including portfolios,enters the market.Strict covid controls and global political and trade tensions have deterred new international investors however those with a sizeable presence in the market remain active.Chinas stable interest rate environment and low input costs continue to support mark
67、et expansion and an active investment market.Logistics asset cap rates of major cities,H1/2021-H2/20227%6%5%4%7%6%5%4%7%6%5%4%BeijingShanghaiWuxiNingboSuzhouHangzhouNanjingShenzhenGuangzhouFuzhouXiamenZhuhaiDalianShenyangTianjinChongqingKunmingXianChangshaWuhanChengduSource:Savills ResearchChina Log
68、istics20OutlookChina Logistics21Post-Covid EraFirst-tier cities supplyDiversified investmentWith goods once more flowing freely across provincial and municipal boundaries,markets like Langfang and Wuqing,where projects service Beijings needs,will see a swift rebound in demand.The flip side is that l
69、andlords in major consumption hubs with higher rents could see tenants look for more affordable premises further from the city.Unlike Shanghai and Guangzhou,Beijing and Shenzhen which have been starved of new supply for many years now,both witnessed new projects being handed over in 2022.As city pla
70、nning looks to better meet market demands,emerging submarkets like PKX and Pinggu,as well as mature submarkets like Shunyi Airport are expected to see more projects come to market in the coming years.Institutional investors looking for investment-grade assets rarely invest in factories and workshops
71、.However,as investors search for higher-yielding assets,more are considering the manufacturing sector.This is often actively supported by both the central and local government levels as China looks to upgrade its manufacturing and enter new economy sectors.Trends for 2023312China LogisticsConsumer c
72、hangesLogistics+workshopC-REITsThe economic slowdown and covid lockdowns have rocked consumer markets in recent years.The more affluent first and second-tier cities seem to rebound faster than some lower-tier cities where households and businesses have been more affected.At the same time,consumption
73、 patterns have shifted with increasing awareness of food safety and product freshness.In addition,increasing acceptance of pre-cooked/pre-prepared meals and demand for pharmaceuticals&supplements are driving demand for the cold storage market.Industrial land acquisition tends to have specific tax co
74、ntributions and investment threshold requirements.In recent years these have become more onerous as local authorities come under increasing financial strain.In order to meet responsibilities,developments will have to be redesigned to incorporate a mix of use types-often manufacturing on the first fl
75、oor and warehouses on the upper floors,or include more built-to-suit elements.The details of the project will often be determined through negotiations with local authorities.JD.com C-REIT(508098.SS)was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in early 2023 representing the first private enterprise ware
76、house C-REIT product.Meanwhile,GLP C-REIT(508056.SS)was the first REIT to acquire additional assets in September.More investors will likely see REIT listing as a possible exit for their portfolios as the appetite for stable rental income and quality products remains strong.64522China ResearchJames M
77、acdonaldSenior DirectorChinaJames.MacdonaldSLucas ZhangManagerChinaLucas.ZIndustrial&LogisticsLouisa LuoChina Head of Industrial&LogisticsChinaLouisa.LuoSBowen MiaoHead of ILSCentral ChinaBowen.MiaoSAndrew ZhouDirectorWuhanAndrew.ZhouSSusan ChenAssociate DirectorWestern ChinaSusanWQ.ChenSCharlie CaiAssociate DirectorShenzhenCharlie.CaiS Coco YuManagerChinaCoco.YuS