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1、APRIL 2023Will Connected Cars Be a Boon or Bust for the Automotive Aftermarket?The US aftermarket has been growing by 5%a year,to its current market size of$357 billion Sources:S&P Global;US Census;MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers analysis;BCG analysis.ALL FIGURESIN$BILLIONSFOR FISCAL-YEAR 2022The numbers
2、 in white are profit,and the numbers in bright green are revenue.Distributors/retailers$21$141Dealers$14$103Independentinstallers$15$175Suppliers$13$88DIY$78OEMs$16$65Parts and laborParts onlyTotal aftermarketProfit=$80 billionRevenue=$357 billionIncreased connectivity changes how vehicles can be se
3、rviced in the aftermarketwhich will reshape profit pools for aftermarket playersSource:BCG analysis.Note:For each use case that assumes a minimum software-defined connectivity,20%of connected cars are added to the impacted car parc population.Increasing capability to support connectivity use casesNo
4、t connectedVehicle connectivityElectrical architectureRemote service capabilityConnectedSoftware-definedDistributed,application-specific controllersDiagnostic tool physically connected in the service centerLimited remote capabilityDistributed,application-specific controllersEmbedded wireless telemat
5、icsNot connectedEmbedded wireless telematicsCentralized,high-performanceUnified software architecture that can be addressed fully remotelyNew cars are increasingly connected,and the industry must take steps now to capitalize on the emerging opportunity Source:IHS New Vehicle Sales;Experian Car Parc,
6、Premium.Bar-chart data includes information on premium cars,including those from Lexus,Mercedes-Benz,Volkswagen,BMW,Audi,Lincoln,Audi,Tesla,and Porsche.Note:Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding.83%64%45%17%35%50%20222%202720325%30428431731%9%66%83%76%8%24%20223%20272032141616US CAR PARC(MILLIO
7、NS)US NEW CAR SALES(MILLIONS)Software-definedConnectedNot connectedSoftware-defined vehicles will increase the overall profit pool for the industry by$2 billion Source:BCG analysis.Notes:Profit-pool impacts for 2032 include direct impacts and upstream/downstream impacts.All 2032 impact figures are b
8、ased on the right-to-repair legislation being passed.Total aftermarketChange in profit&revenue per vehicle:current to 2032Change in industry profit&revenue:current to 2032SUPPLIERProfit+$30(67%)+$30(10%)+$20(36%)+$30(12%)+$5(7%)$20(4%)+$5(10%)$25(7%)$25(50%)$75(12%)RevenueOEMDISTRIBUTOR/RETAILERDEAL
9、ERINDEPENDENTINSTALLERCURRENTPROFIT2032PROFIT$315(+13%)$280Profit+$1.3b+$2.0b+$1.3b+$2.0b+$0.3b$0.7b+$0.2b$0.5b$1.2b$3.6bRevenue$82(+3%)$80Connected-car use cases fall into five broad categoriesSource:Industry reports;leadership belief audits;BCG analysis.1OTA=over the air.01Diagnostics and updates
10、Basic remote diagnostics:Remote diagnostics before appointment to optimize visit OTA1 software updates:Remote updates to reduce in-person appointments OTA repairs:Over-the-air software patches to reduce in-person hardware repairs Self-diagnosing vehicles:On-vehicle diagnostics to replace service-cen
11、ter tools02New services and business models Quality assurance in vehicle sales:On-demand remote vehicle inspections Software/hardware integration:Services to ensure aftermarket part and accessory compatibility Software features:Aftermarket software add-ons03Operations optimization Operations optimiz
12、ation:Increase supply-chain and labor efficiency using vehicle data Supplier optimization:Use vehicle-performance data in product development04Data monetization Supplier marketing:Promote personalized upgrades based on driving behavior Emergency services:Coordinate response and repair after incident
13、s05Maintenance scheduling Smartphone app appointments:One-click service scheduling based on vehicle diagnostics Embedded appointment scheduling:Vehicle schedules service automatically Preventive maintenance:Vehicle schedules service by maintenance schedule Predictive maintenance:AI proactively sched
14、ules service to avoid breakdownsUse cases will have varying impacts on specific segments of the aftermarket(1/2)Source:Industry reports;leadership belief audits;BCG analysis.1Basic remote diagnostics impact only OEMs.2OTA=over the air.Use caseThemeMinimumconnectivityrequiredTimehorizonSupplierOEMDea
15、lerDistributor/retailerIndependentinstallerNew services and business modelsDiagnostics and updates Quality assurance in vehicle sales:On-demand remote vehicle inspections Software integration:Services to ensure aftermarket part and accessory compatibility Software features:Aftermarket software add-o
16、ns(e.g.,performance suspension settings)Software-definedSoftware-definedSoftware-defined Basic remote diagnostics:Remote diagnostics before appointment to optimize visit1 OTA2 software updates:Remote updates to reduce in-person appointments OTA repairs:Over-the-air software patches to reduce in-pers
17、on hardware repairs Self-diagnosing vehicles:On-vehicle diagnostics to replace service-center toolsConnectedSoftware-definedSoftware-definedSoftware-definedAvailable nowAvailable nowLikely in 5 yearsAvailable nowAvailable nowLikely in 10 yearsLikely in 5 yearsUpstream/downstream impact(+)Direct impa
18、ct(+)Upstream/downstream impact(-)Direct impact(-)KEY PLAYERS IMPACTEDUse cases will have varying impacts on specific segments of the aftermarket(2/2)Source:Industry reports;leadership belief audits;BCG analysis.Use caseThemeMinimumconnectivityrequiredTimehorizonSupplierOEMDealerDistributor/retailer
19、IndependentinstallerMaintenance schedulingOperations optimizationData monetization Smartphone app appointments:One-click service scheduling based on vehicle diagnostics Embedded appointment scheduling:Vehicle schedules service automatically Preventive maintenance:Vehicle schedules service by mainten
20、ance schedule Predictive maintenance:AI proactively schedules service to avoid breakdownsNot connectedSoftware-definedSoftware-definedConnected Operations optimization:Increase supply-chain and labor efficiency using vehicle data Supplier optimization:Use vehicle performance data in product developm
21、ent Supplier marketing:Promote personalized upgrades based on driving behavior Emergency services:Coordinate response and repair after incidentsSoftware-definedSoftware-definedSoftware-definedConnectedAvailable nowLikely in 10 yearsLikely in 10 yearsLikely in 5 yearsLikely in 5 yearsLikely in 5 year
22、sAvailable nowUpstream/downstream impact(+)Direct impact(+)Upstream/downstream impact(-)Direct impact(-)Available nowKEY PLAYERS IMPACTEDAmong aftermarket executives,vehicle connectivity is a top prioritySource:Market research on mobility(MIIOS)survey,January-February 2023.N=100 CEOs,CTOs,COOs,and V
23、Ps from US auto aftermarket suppliers,distributors,dealers,and retailers;BCG analysis.Note:Figures may not add to 100 due to rounding.1ADAS=advanced driver assistance systems.Plans to pursueCurrently pursuingMediumpriorityHighpriorityLowpriority2727191412Response%Response%Vehicle connectivityVehicle
24、 electrification Tech-skill and labor shortagesE-commerceVehicle ADAS1penetrationDiagnosticsand updatesMaintenanceschedulingNew services and business modelsOperations optimizationDatamonetizationAftermarket industry leaders believe connectivity and electrification are most impactful to their busines
25、s,with 27%selecting each as the most significant trendApproximately half of aftermarket companies are already pursuing use cases for connected cars87%of industry leaders already consider software and data offerings a medium-or high-priority initiative67624643392320434841Response%Current prioritizati
26、onEstimated in+ten years243To capture the opportunity in software-defined vehicles,stakeholders will need to develop specific capabilitiesSource:BCG analysis.Aftermarket segmentOpportunityCapabilities requiredSupplierSuppliers can capture more than$1 billion of value from new features and
27、 services enabled by technology New software offerings to complement hardware parts Consumer interfaces for key functions(e.g.,direct marketing,field data for product development)OEMOEMs can monetize more than$1 billion from emerging service offerings Modern software architectures to enable aftermar
28、ket use cases for software-defined vehicles Scalable cloud and data infrastructure with competitive economicsDistributor/retailerDistributors and retailers need to optimize increasingly complex operations and support independent installers to capture more than$430 million Advanced data analytics and
29、 AI to optimize supply chain and operations Independent installer training and services to support software-defined vehiclesDealerDealers have“once in a lifetime”opportunity to win over aftermarket customers Customer lifetime management that extends beyond warranty period and first owner Technical know-how and tools to repair and maintain software-defined vehiclesIndependent installerIndependent installers must furnish more technical repairs and double down on customer service Customer-relationship management and loyalty Differentiated service and repair capabilities