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1、VOLUME I:SUMMARY REPORTMAY 2023PREPARED BYRyan HledikKate PetersReal ReliabilityThe Value of Virtual PowerPLEASE NOTEThis report was prepared by The Brattle Group for Google.It is intended to be read and used as a whole and not in parts.The report reflects the analyses and opinions of the authors an
2、d does not necessarily reflect those of The Brattle Groups clients or otherconsultants.We would like to thank Keven Brough and Rizwan Naveed of Google for the invaluable project management,insights,and data that they provided throughout the development of this report.We also are grateful for the mod
3、eling contributions of our Brattle colleague,Adam Bigelow.Copyright 2023 The Brattle Group,Inc.NoticeReal Reliability|2Volume I:Summary ReportI.SummaryII.An Introduction to VPPsIII.Modeling VPP PerformanceIV.The Value of VPPsV.Moving Forward with VPPsVolume II:Technical AppendixDescribes all modelin
4、g assumptions and data sourcesContentsSummaryReal Reliability|4Maintaining power system resource adequacy is a major investment.Over the past decade,the U.S.added over 100 GW of new capacity intended largely to maintain resource adequacy.This amounted to over$120 billion of capital investment,primar
5、ily in gas-fired generators and lithium-ion batteries.Virtual Power Plants(VPPs)are an emerging alternative to conventional resource adequacy options.A VPP is a portfolio of actively controlled distributed energy resources(DERs).Operation of the DERs is optimized to provide benefits to the power sys
6、tem,consumers,and the environment.Within a decade,analysts forecast an inflection point in the trajectory of DER ownership.VPPs already are beginning to be deployed across the U.S.and internationally.We explore the ability of VPPs to reliably reduce resource adequacy costs in the coming decade.We mo
7、del the economics of a residential VPP for a representative U.S.utility system in 2030.The utility system is 50%renewables,with both summer and winter resource adequacy needs.The VPP in our study is composed of commercially available residential load flexibility technologies.VPP operations are based
8、 on actual observed performance of DERs,accounting for operational and behavioral constraints.The net cost of providing resource adequacy from the VPP is compared to that of a gas peaker and utility-scale battery.Net cost accounts for additional value from energy,ancillary services T&D deferral,resi
9、lience,and greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.OverviewReal Reliability|5Real reliability:A VPP that leverages residential load flexibility could perform as reliably as conventional resources and contribute to resource adequacy at a similar scale.Cost savings:Excluding societal benefits(i.e.,emissions and
10、resilience),the net cost to the utility of providing resource adequacy from the VPP is only roughly 40%to 60%of the cost of the alternative options.Extrapolating from this observation,a 60 GW VPP deployment could meet future resource adequacy needs at a net cost that is$15 billion to$35 billion lowe
11、r than the cost of the alternative options over the ensuing decade(undiscounted 2022 dollars).Additional benefits:When accounting for additional societal benefits,the VPP is the only resource with the potential to provide resource adequacy at negative net cost.60 GW of VPP could provide over$20 bill
12、ion in additional societal benefits over a 10-year period.More work is needed:Key barriers must be addressed to fully unlock this value for consumers and ensure that virtual power plants become more than just virtual reality.Key FindingsNet Cost of Providing 400 MW of Resource Adequacy(Range observe
13、d across all sensitivity cases)HighLowBaseGasBatteryVPPNote:Costs shown in 2022 dollars.Costs are net of societal benefits(i.e.,GHG emissions avoidance and resilience value)and power system benefits(energy,ancillary services,and T&D deferral value).An Introduction to VPPsReal Reliability|7Over 100 G
14、W of capacity was built primarily to provide resource adequacy in the U.S.in the past decade,requiring over$120 billion of investment.More will be needed.Providing affordable system reliability is the primary objective of utilities and regulators as they make generation resource investment decisions
15、.Electrification,coal retirements,and dependence on resources with limited capacity value(wind,solar)will continue to result in a persistent need to maintain sufficient system“resource adequacy”by adding new dispatchable capacity.Historically,natural gas-fired combustion turbines and combined cycles
16、 have served this need.Increasingly,utility-scale battery storage is being deployed for the same reason.Alternatively,in this study we explore the cost of serving resource adequacy needs from an emerging resource:a virtual power plant(VPP).IntroductionSources:EIA,Velocity Suite ABB Inc,and NREL.Note
17、:$120 billion estimate assumes 110 GW at an average installed cost of approximately$1,100/kW in 2022 dollars.“Gas”includes combustion turbines and combined cycles that have been built for a combination of resource adequacy and energy value.Historical U.S.Capacity Additions for Resource Adequacy110 G
18、W,2012-2021BatteryGasOver 100 GW of capacity was built primarily to provide resource adequacy in the U.S.in the past decade,requiring over$120 billion of investment.More will be needed.Power system(distribution grid,transmission grid,power generation)What Is a VPP?Aggregator or utility with distribu
19、ted energy resource management system(DERMS)Customers allow their DERs to be directly managed subject to operational constraints by an aggregator or electric utility.Utilities and aggregators manage the DERs in an orchestrated way to provide grid benefits(e.g.,reducing demand during peak load hours
20、to avoid investment in conventional generation capacity).Virtual Power PlantExamples of potential elementsSmart thermostatsElectric vehicles(EVs)Rooftop solar PVDistributed batteriesSmart water heatersCommercial building automation systemsThe cost savings provided by the VPP are shared between the i
21、ndividual participants,the aggregator,the utility,and society broadly.Note:VPPs can be composed of many distributed technologies.As described later,the VPP modeled in this study is composed of a subset of the options shown here.The power system is expanded and operated at a lower total cost,reliabil
22、ity is maintained,and emissions are reduced.A VPP is portfolio of distributed energy resources(DERs)that are actively controlled to provide benefits to the power system,consumers,and the environment.Real Reliability|9DER ownership is expected to grow by several multiples within the next decade in th
23、e United States.Several forces currently are driving VPP deployment to an inflection point:Declining DER costs,particularly EVs and batteriesTechnological advancement in algorithms for managing and optimizing the value of DERsInflation Reduction Act(IRA)incentives to promote electrification and effi
24、ciencyFERC Order 2222 and accompanying initiatives to open wholesale markets to VPP participationGrowing model availability of EVs,thermostats,smart panels,and othersThe decarbonization imperative,a focus of policymakers,utilities,and consumersAn Inflection Point for VPP DeploymentHomes with Smart T
25、hermostatsResidential Rooftop SolarLight-Duty Electric VehiclesHomes with Electric Water HeatingBehind-the-Meter(BTM)BatteriesNotes:See technical appendix for details.Modest growth in electric water heating is due to significant existing market saturation and near-term focus of the adoption forecast
26、.The Inflation Reduction Act may further accelerate these adoption forecasts.PRESENT203010%34%PRESENT203027 GW83 GWPRESENT20303 mil.26 mil.PRESENT203049%50%PRESENT20302 GW27 GWDER ownership is expected to grow by several multiples within the next decade in the United States.Real Reliability|10Real-W
27、orld VPPsNote:For descriptions of more VPP case studies,see RMI report,“Virtual Power Plants,Real Benefits.”Smart thermostatsSolar/storageMix of DERsTo a degree,VPPs have existed for decades as demand response programs.But VPPs are rapidly evolving to leverage the expanding mix of DER technologies.M
28、odeling VPP PerformanceReal Reliability|12VPPs can be composed of a variety of technologies.In this study,we focus on commercially-proven residential demand response applications.The term“VPP”often is associated with aggregations of behind-the-meter(BTM)solar and storage.However,a VPP can be compose
29、d of a much broader range of technologies.In fact,a VPP does not even need to generate power.Dispatchable demand response(DR),enabled by technologies such as smart thermostats and electric vehicles(EVs),can provide many of the same benefits as distributed generation resources by reducing or shifting
30、 load.The VPP Modeled in This StudySmart ThermostatsA/C and electric heating are controlled to reduce usage during peak times.Customer comfort is managed through pre-cooling/heating.Smart Water HeatingElectric water heaters act as a grid-interactive thermal battery,providing daily load shifting and
31、even real-time grid balancing.Home EV Managed ChargingEV charging is a large,flexible source of load that can be shifted overnight.BTM Battery Demand ResponseCustomer-sited batteries can be charged and discharged to provide services to the grid for a limited number of events,while providing resilien
32、ce as backup generation during all other hours.Composition of the VPP modeled in this studyVPPs can be composed of a variety of technologies.Real Reliability|13Analysis Approach OverviewNote:See technical appendix for a complete description of modeling assumptions and data sources.Define utility sys
33、tem1The prototypical U.S.utility is defined using publicly available data.We conservatively assume operationally challenging conditions for a VPP.Establish system resource adequacy need2Each resource must provide 400 MW of resource adequacy.This is approximately 7%of the gross system peak for the il
34、lustrative utility.Determine MW of each resource type needed3Each resource must be available with sufficient generation or load reduction capability during the top system net load hours of the year.Estimate total cost of each resource type4The all-in cost of each resource type includes CapEx,fuel,an
35、d ongoing program costs,and is sourced from publicly available data.Simulate market value of each resource type5We use Brattles LoadFlex and bSTORE models to simulate the additional(i.e.,non-resource adequacy)value that could be provided by each resource.Calculate net cost of each resource type6The
36、value of each resource is subtracted from its all-in cost to arrive an estimate of the net cost of providing 400 MW of resource adequacy from each resource type.We compare the net cost of providing 400 MW of resource adequacy from three resource types:a natural gas peaker,a transmission-connected ut
37、ility-scale battery,and a VPP.Our methodology is illustrated below.Real Reliability|14We model an illustrative mid-size utility with 400 MW of new resource adequacy need(7%of gross system peak demand).It includes a customer base of 1.7 million residential customers.Other factors in our illustrative
38、utility include:5,700 MW gross peak demand,3,600 MW peak demand net of expected wind and solar generationPower generation is 50%renewable by 2030(solar,onshore wind),representing a growing trend toward decarbonized power supplyThe illustrative utility is conservatively selected to represent challeng
39、ing performance requirements for a VPP,such as a need for resource adequacy performance during many hours in both summer and winterData on marginal costs,hourly system load,renewable profiles,and customer characteristics are derived from sources such as NREL,EIA,and the U.S.Department of Energy.The
40、Illustrative Utility SystemNet Load400 MW Reduced LoadNote:See technical appendix for a complete description of modeling assumptions and data sources.Hourly System Net Load on Example Peak DayWe model an illustrative mid-size utility with 400 MW of new resource adequacy need(7%of gross system peak d
41、emand).Real Reliability|15We conduct an hourly reliability assessment to ensure that all three modeled resource types are capable of fully providing 400 MW of resource adequacy to the utility system.As a proxy for resource adequacy performance requirements,we require that the three resource options
42、each be available to serve all load contributing to the utilitys top 400 MW of net peak demand over an entire year(see figure at right).This means that the resources must be available to perform at the required level for 63 hours of the year,spanning both summer and winter seasons.One particular sum
43、mer peak day in our analysis requires resource performance during seven consecutive hours.Defining Resource AdequacyUtility Hourly Net Load Profile400 MW Reduced LoadNet Load(gross system load minus renewable generation)63 hrs must be addressed to serve top 400 MW of loadNote:See technical appendix
44、for a complete description of modeling assumptions and data sources.We conduct an hourly reliability assessment to ensure that all three modeled resource types are capable of fully providing 400 MW of resource adequacy to the utility system.Real Reliability|16Calculating the Net Cost of Resource Ade
45、quacyNotes:1 Negative“value”indicates that the resource increases cost(e.g.,a gas peaker increasing GHG emissions).2 Excluding societal value from the calculation results in an estimate of the net resource cost from the perspective of the utility or system operator.Net cost of resource adequacyCost
46、of installing and operating resourceCapExFuelOperations&Maintenance(O&M)Program costsSystem value of resource1Energy valueT&D investment deferralAncillary services valueSocietal value of resource1,2GHG emissions reductionResilience valueOur analysis estimates the cost of providing resource adequacy
47、from each of the three resource types,net of any additional value those resources provide to the system and to society.The result is the“net cost”of providing resource adequacy.Real Reliability|17Estimating Additional Market ValueNotes:Further discussion provided in next section.Throughout the prese
48、ntation,“utility-scale battery”refers to transmission-connected lithium-ion batteries.System ImpactDescriptionGas PeakerUtility-ScaleBatteryVPPEnergyNet change in system fuel and variable O&M costs due to the addition of the new resource.+Ancillary ServicesValue associated with operating the resourc
49、e to provide real-time balancing services to the grid.+EmissionsNet change in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions due to the addition of the resource,valued at a social cost of carbon estimate of$100/metric ton.-+T&D Investment DeferralDeferred cost of investing in the transmission and distribution grid du
50、e to strategic siting of distributed resources.N/AN/A+ResilienceAvoided distribution outage associated with using DERs as backup generation.N/AN/A+=system benefit=system costThe distributed nature of VPPs allows them to provide a broader range of system benefits than transmission-connected alternati
51、ves.Real Reliability|18We simulate VPP dispatch to account for real-world operational limitations,based on observed performance in actual deployments.Limits on customer tolerance for number of interruptionsLoad impacts limited to actual available load during system peak hoursLoad impacts account for
52、 event opt-outs,remain within customer tolerance rangePre-and post-event load building to ensure customer usage abilityDispatch is simulated to maximize avoided power system costs,in addition to providing resource adequacyModeling Realistic VPP OperationsEV Home Charging Load Profile Relative to Hou
53、rly System Costs(Average across days and EV portfolio)12345Max 1 event per dayNote:Dispatch and costs are shown as averages across event days.See technical appendix for a compete description of modeling assumptions and data sources.Before DispatchAfter DispatchEmissionsEnergy12345We simulate VPP dis
54、patch to account for real-world operational limitations,based on observed performance in actual deployments.Real Reliability|19The VPP modeled for this study is composed of load flexibility from four home energy technologies.This is just one of many potential configurations of VPPs.Eligibility refle
55、cts potential technology adoption within the next decade.We assume achievable levels of customer participation in each component of the VPP.Modeled costs are those that would be incurred by the utility.Costs are based on market studies,review of actual deployments,and expert interviews.Defining the
56、VPPNote:Controllable demand sums to more than 400 MW across technologies to ensure sufficient capacity is available during all hours required for resource adequacy.Costs shown in 2022$.Smart water heating is the only option modeled as providing ancillary services(modeled as spinning reserves),as thi
57、s is an existing commercial offering from grid-interactive electric resistance water heaters in PJM and other markets.Smart Thermostat DRSmart Water HeatingHome Managed EV ChargingBTM Battery DREligibility(%of residential customer base)67%summer;35%winter50%15%1%Participation(%of eligible customers)
58、30%30%40%20%Total Controllable Demand at Peak(MW)204 MW114 MW79 MW26 MWParticipation Incentive($per participant per year)$25 per season$30$100$500Other ImplementationCosts,including marketing and DERMS($per participant per year)$43$55$80$140VPP OperationalConstraints15 five-hour events per season,pl
59、us 100 hrs of minor setpointadjustments per yearDaily load shifting of water heating load,ancillary servicesDaily load shifting of vehicle chargingload15 demand response events per yearThe VPP modeled for this study is composed of load flexibility from four home energy technologies.The Value of VPPs
60、Real Reliability|21Gas Peaker OperationsSystem ImpactDiscussionEnergyThe peaker runs in any hour when its variable cost is lower than that of the marginal resource(or the energy price in wholesale energy markets)Ancillary ServicesThe peaker quickly ramps up and down in real-timeto balance the gridEm
61、issionsWhen the peaker runs,it burns natural gas and emits GHGs but also displaces emissions from the marginal unitT&D InvestmentDeferralN/ANot a distributed resourceResilienceN/ANot a distributed resourceHour of DayPeak Net Load DayNote:We assume that 440 MW of gas peaker capacity needs to be built
62、 in order to account for an expected forced outage rate of 10%.Net LoadNet LoadAfter Dispatch400 MW Reduced Load=system benefit=system costThe gas peaker provides resource adequacy by being available to generate when needed for system reliability reasons.Real Reliability|22Utility-Scale Battery Oper
63、ationsSystem ImpactDiscussionEnergyThe battery charges during the lowest cost hours of the day,and discharges during the highest cost hours of the day,displacing higher cost unitsAncillary ServicesBatteries have the flexibility to quickly ramp up and down in real-time to balance the gridEmissionsIn
64、our simulations batteries slightly increase GHG emissions,primarily because they consume more energy than they discharge(i.e.,due to roundtrip losses)T&D investmentdeferralN/ANot a distributed resourceResilienceN/ANot a distributed resourceNote:We model a portfolio of 4-hour and 6-hour batteries;the
65、re are days when more than 4 hours of energy discharge is needed to provide full resource adequacy.Hour of Day400 MW Reduced LoadPeak Net Load DayNet LoadNet LoadAfter Dispatch6 hour4 hourBattery charges in low cost hours=system benefit=system costBatteries provide resource adequacy by charging duri
66、ng low cost hours and being available to discharge when needed for system reliability.Real Reliability|23VPP OperationsSystem ImpactDiscussionEnergyThe VPP curtails load during the highest cost hours of the day,and shifts load to lower hoursAncillary ServicesThe heating element of smart electric wat
67、er heaters can be managed to provide ancillary servicesEmissionsThe VPP reduces GHG emissions through an overall reduction in electricity consumption due primarily to the energy efficiency benefits of the smart thermostatT&D InvestmentDeferralReductions in demand will delay the need for peak-related
68、 capacity upgrades to the T&D systemResilienceBehind-the-meter batteries provide backup generation during distribution outages=system benefit=system costNet LoadNet LoadAfter DispatchHome Managed EV ChargingSmart Water HeatingSmart ThermostatBTM BatteryVPP shifts customer usage to low cost hoursHour
69、 of DayPeak Net Load Day400 MW Reduced LoadThe modeled VPP can fully provide 400 MW of resource adequacy,curtailing load across multiple hours of the day during summer and winter.Real Reliability|24Resource Adequacy For CheapEmissionsResilienceDistributionTransmissionAncillary ServicesEnergyCapEx,Fu
70、el,O&M,Program CostsGasBatteryVPP$43M$29M$2MAnnualized Net Cost of Providing 400 MW of Resource AdequacyThe VPP could provide the same resource adequacy at a significant cost discount relative to the alternatives.Real Reliability|25VPPs could save U.S.utilities$15 to$35 billion in capacity investmen
71、t over 10 years.Focusing only on utility system costs and benefits,and ignoring societal benefits(i.e.,emissions,resilience),the VPP could provide resource adequacy at a net utility system cost that is only roughly 40%of the net cost of a gas peaker,and 60%of the net cost of a battery.According to R
72、MI,60 GW of VPPs could be deployed in the U.S.by 2030.Extrapolating from the findings for our illustrative utility,a 60 GW VPP deployment could meet future resource adequacy needs at a net cost that is$15 billion to$35 billion lower than the cost of the alternative options over the ensuing decade.De
73、carbonization and resilience benefits are incremental to those resource cost savings.Consumers would experience an additional$20 billion in societal benefits over that 10-year period.The Cost of 60 GW of U.S.Resource AdequacyNotes:Assumes 60 GW of resource adequacy is procured for 10 years from each
74、 resource type at an annualized per-kW net cost that is based on the base case findings from this study.The VPP provides incremental societal value of approximately$37/kW-yr.Values are presented as an undiscounted sum over a 10-year period in real 2022 dollars.VPPs could save U.S.utilities$15 to$35
75、billion in capacity investment over 10 years.Real Reliability|26Sensitivity AnalysisNet Cost of Providing 400 MW of Resource Adequacy(Range observed across all sensitivity cases)HighLowBaseGasBatteryVPPNote:See technical appendix for a complete description of modeling assumptions and data sources.Co
76、sts shown in 2022$.Sensitivity cases modeled:Higher carbon priceLower carbon priceHigher T&D costLower T&D cost2030 technology cost trendsBusiness-as-usual renewables deploymentAlternative battery configurationEnergy only(no ancillary services benefit)The economic competitiveness of battery storage
77、and VPPs will vary from one market to the next,and also will depend on the trajectory of future cost declines.In markets with higher T&D costs or higher GHG emissions costs,the additional(i.e.,non-resource adequacy)value of a VPP can outweigh its costs,thus providing resource adequacy at a negative
78、net cost to society.The VPP is the only resource with the potential to provide resource adequacy at a negative net cost to society.Real Reliability|27INCREASED RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENTBy shifting load to hours when excess solar and wind generation otherwise would be curtailed,VPPs can increase the capa
79、city factor of wind and solar generation.In turn,the cost-effectiveness and economic deployment of those resources could increase.BETTER POWER SYSTEM INTEGRATION OF ELECTRIFICATIONVPPs can facilitate cost-effective deployment of electrification measures by reducing load impacts and associated infras
80、tructure investment needs.FASTER GRID CONNECTIONThe highly distributed nature of VPPs means they are not limited by the same interconnection delays currently facing many large-scale resources.FLEXIBLE SCALINGA gas peaker is a multi-decade commitment with risks of becoming a stranded asset.Alternativ
81、ely,the capacity of VPPs can be increased or decreased flexibly over time to align with the needs of a rapidly changing power system.ENHANCED CUSTOMER SATISFACTIONThe opportunity to participate in a VPP unlocks a new feature of customer-owned DERs,improving the overall consumer value proposition of
82、the technologies.IMPROVED BEHIND-THE-METER GRID INTELLIGENCEImproved visibility into a portfolio of energy technologies that are connected to the distribution grid can enhance the operators ability to detect and respond to local changes in system conditions.Additional Unquantified Benefits of VPPsVP
83、Ps can provide several additional major benefits not modeled in this study.Moving Forward with VPPsReal Reliability|29The Ideal Conditions for VPP DeploymentInnovation in technology,markets,policy,and regulation can enable VPP deployment.MARKET DESIGNWholesale markets provide a level playing field f
84、or demand-side resources Retail rates and programs incentivize participation in innovative,customer-centric waysTECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONDERs are widely available and affordable.DERs can communicate with each other and the system operator Algorithms effectively optimize DER use while maintaining custome
85、r comfort and conveniencePOLICY SUPPORTCodes and standards promote deployment of flexible end-uses R&D funding supports removal of key technical barriersREGULATORY FRAMEWORKUtility business model incentivizes deployment of VPPs wherever cost-effective Utility resource planning and evaluation account
86、s for the full value of VPPsMaximized VPP ValueReal Reliability|30Overcoming Barriers to VPP DeploymentNote:For further discussion of barriers and solutions,see the U.S.DOEs A National Roadmap for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings.Key VPP BarriersPossible SolutionsExamplesTechnologyLack of commun
87、ications standards(between devices,with grid)Initiatives to create coordination and standardization among product developersThe Connected Home over IP(CHIP)working group,Matter,the VP3 initiativeUncertain consumer DER adoption trajectoryR&D/implementation funding to improve products and reduce costs
88、Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for DERs and smart buildingsMarketsProhibitive/complex wholesale market participation rulesMarket products that explicitly recognizeVPP characteristicsERCOTs 80 MW Aggregated DER(ADER)Pilot ProgramRetail rates and program design that do not incentivize DER managem
89、entSubscription pricing coupled with load flexibility offerings;time-varying ratesDuke Energy pilot coupling subscription pricing with thermostat managementRegulationUtility regulatory model that does not financially incentivize VPPsPerformance incentive mechanisms,shared savings modelsAt least 12 s
90、tates with utility financial incentives for demand reductionFull value of VPPs not considered in policy/planning decisionsRegulatory targets for VPP developmentMinnesota PUC 400 MW demandresponse expansion requirementBarriers are preventing VPP potential from being realized.With work,they can be ove
91、rcome.Real Reliability|31Quick WinsConduct a jurisdiction-specific VPP market potential study.Then establish VPP procurement targets.This is a common approach to promoting the deployment of renewables,energy efficiency,and storage.Potential studies should account for achievable adoption rates and co
92、st-effective deployment levels.Establish a VPP pilot.Test innovative utility financial incentive mechanisms.An inflection point in DER adoption is rapidly approaching;pilots will provide critical experience before its too late.Technology demonstration is not enough;regulatory models that allow utili
93、ties to share in the benefits also must be tested.Review and update existing policies to comprehensively account for VPP value.Methods for evaluating VPP cost-effectiveness often consider only a portion of the value they can create.Evaluation of VPP proposals will need to account for benefits create
94、d by the full range of services VPPs provide,including energy savings,load shifting,peak clipping,real-time flexibility,and exports to the grid.Among many options for enabling VPP deployment,here are three low-risk actions utilities and regulators can take in the near-term.Real Reliability|32As deca
95、rbonization initiatives ramp up across the U.S.,affordability and reliability are in the spotlight as the top priorities of policymakers,regulators,and utilities.This study demonstrated that VPPs have the potential to provide the same reliability as conventional alternatives,with significantly great
96、eraffordability and decarbonization benefits.While VPPs are beginning to be deployed across the U.S.and internationally,achieving the scale of impacts described in this study will require a collective industry effort to place VPPs on a level playing field with other resources.A renewed focus on inno
97、vation in technology development,wholesale and retail market design,utility regulation,system planning,and customer engagement will be key to ensuring that virtual power plants become more than just virtual reality.ConclusionUNIQUE FEATURES OF THIS STUDYHourly reliability assessment,to ensure VPPs a
98、re evaluated on a level playing field with alternativesRealistic representation of VPP performance characteristics and achievable levels of adoptionAnalysis of net benefits,with comprehensive accounting for VPP costsFocus on commercially-proven residential demand flexibilityReal Reliability|33Brehm,
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103、rograms Office blog series.U.S.Department of Energy,“A National Roadmap for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings,”May 17,2021.Zhou,Ella and Trieu Mai,Electrification Futures Study:Operational Analysis of U.S.Power Systems with Increased Electrification and Demand-Side Flexibility,”NREL report,May 20
104、21.Additional ReadingReal Reliability|34The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter(s)and do not necessarily state or reflect the views of The Brattle Group or its clients.Ryan Hledik PRINCIPAL|SAN FRANCISCORyan.HRyan focuses his consulting practice on regulatory,pla
105、nning,and strategy matters related to emerging energy technologies and policies.His work on distributed resource flexibility has been cited in federal and state regulatory decisions,as well as by Forbes,National Geographic,The New York Times,Vox,and The Washington Post.Ryan received his M.S.in Manag
106、ement Science and Engineering from Stanford University,and his B.S.in Applied Science from the University of Pennsylvania.About the AuthorsKate PetersSENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST|BOSTONKate.P Kate focuses her research on resource planning in decarbonized electric markets and economic analysis of distributed energy resources.She has supported utilities,renewable developers,research organizations,technology companies,and other private sector clients in a variety of energy regulatory and strategy engagements.Kate received her B.S.in Environmental Economics from Middlebury College.