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1、A clean energy future for AustraliaEnergy Vision2Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixContentsForeword 3Executive summary 4About Transgrid 8Drivers of change 9Six forces shaping t
2、he future of Australias energy system 10Technological advancement 11The decarbonisation imperative 12Future energy scenarios 14Scenario comparisons 15Key trends 17Unstoppable transition to renewables 18Early coal retirement is increasingly likely 19Rise of the prosumer 20Surging demand for electrici
3、ty 23Decarbonisation,jobs&costs 24Decarbonisation 25Electricity sector jobs 26Electricity prices 29Our vision 33Which scenarios provide clear long-term benefits for Australians?35Deep decarbonisation 36Clean energy superpower 41Power system implications 45A changing generation mix 46Varying storage
4、depths 48Exponential demand for storage 47The role of dispatchable generation 50Geographically dispersed energy generation 51An expanded transmission backbone 59An increasingly variable energy system 61The importance of highly coordinated distributed resources 62The changing patterns of maximum dema
5、nd 63Declining minimum demands 64Maintaining system security 65Appendix 671.1 Our partners 681.2 Summary of assumptions 691.3 Generation capacity 701.4 Renewable energy zone utilisation 71References 723Energy Vision|Executive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsK
6、ey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixForewordForewordTransgrid is working with a broad range of stakeholders to plan for this future energy landscape,including State and Federal Governments,the Australian Energy Market Operator(AEMO)and transmission and distribution network service pr
7、oviders.Transmission will be central to Australias successful transition to a clean energy future.Decarbonisation,electrification and new green industries will require a significant expansion of renewable generation,storage and associated transmission infrastructure.We need to achieve the biggest en
8、ergy transformation of our lifetime without sacrificing the grid security and reliability to which we have become accustomed.To better understand what our energy future could look like,Transgrid has partnered with independent experts,CSIRO,ClimateWorks Australia and The Brattle Group to model the im
9、plications of a range of scenarios on the evolution of our energy system.This detailed scenario modelling guides our long-term planning,helping to ensure our network is robust,resilient and flexible to future challenges and opportunities.This Energy Vision explores six possible futures for our energ
10、y system over the coming 30 years to 2050.The scenarios range from a future based on current trends,to a backwards-looking sharp slump in Australias economic growth,to more optimistic scenarios in which Australia hits the Paris Agreements aspirational 1.5C decarbonisation target and becomes a global
11、,clean energysuperpower.Each scenario is underpinned by detailed modelling to assess the implications and opportunities of emerging technologies,trends and policies on the development and operation of Australias energy system.We have also assessed the implications of each scenario on Australias deca
12、rbonisation trajectory,the creation of electricity sectorjobs and the impact on market and consumer electricity prices.Our analysis indicates that the transition towards a clean energy future can create immense opportunity for Australia if we set ourselves on the optimal course a course that will su
13、pport not just decarbonisation,but also job creation and economic growth.Our modelling shows that this future is achievable.But to realise this potential,the pace of change needs to rapidly accelerate.There is no time to waste.This Energy Vision sets out the least cost evolution of the energy system
14、 under a range of possible future scenarios and presents an evidence-based vision for a future that provides clear long-term benefits for Australians.We trust these insights will support energy system stakeholders in formulating the policies,reforms and investments required to enable the rapid and o
15、rderly decarbonisation of our energy system and to build Australia the energy system we need to thrive in a clean energy future.Jerry Maycock Chair of Transgrid October 2021As the world responds to climate change and the cost of renewables plunges,the transition from a fossil fuel to renewable energ
16、y based power system is unstoppable.During this energy transformation,Australias patterns of electricity supply and demand will change dramatically.Energy Vision|4Australias energy system is undergoing aonceina-lifetime transformation.This Energy Vision provides evidence-based,data-driven insights i
17、nto what that transformation could look like overthe next 30 years.By planning for a diverse range of future scenarios,we can ensure our energy system is robust,resilient and flexible,as wenavigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.In partnership with independent experts,CSIRO,ClimateWorks Aust
18、ralia and The Brattle Group,wehave developed and modelled sixpossible futures for Australias energy system to 2050.Figure 1:Comparing scenarios against their level of decarbonisation,decentralisation and the underlying electricity consumption in 2050(represented by the size of the bubble)Six scenari
19、os for the futureCurrent trendsAgeing coal power stations are replaced with competitively priced large and small-scale renewables and storageProsumer powerConsumer choices and technology advancement drive a very high penetration of well-coordinated distributed energy resources into the systemDeep de
20、carbonisationMarket forces,international and domestic politics and consumer expectations drive a huge reduction in carbon emissions across all sectors of our economy.Australia commits to limit global warming to 1.5C,in line with the aspirations of the Paris AgreementClean energy superpower Australia
21、 leverages its abundant renewable energy resources and mineral ores to become a global clean energy superpower,exporting green hydrogen and metals to theworldDe-industrialisation death spiralA global economic downturn causes Australias economic growth to slump,particularly impacting the industrial s
22、ectorStates go it aloneA breakdown of National Electricity Market(NEM)regulations sees a siloed approach from the states,which establish their own policies and local energy solutions.A regulatory impasse prevents new interstate transmission developments fromproceedingStrong decarbonisationStates go
23、it aloneCurrent trendsProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerHighly decentralisedForewordDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixExecutive summaryExecutive summaryEnergy
24、Vision|5The transmission system is a key enabler of Australias energy transformation Surging demand for electricity,an influx of geographically diverse renewable energy generation and an increasingly important role for energy storage will reshape our energy system,requiring a significant expansion o
25、f the transmission network.The role of the transmission system remains crucial in all scenarios,moving 73-95%of all electricity consumed in the NEM in 2050 from largescale generators to distributors and large customers,even in scenarios with exceptionally high rooftop solar uptake.New interstate tra
26、nsmission interconnection will be critical to maintain the sharing of low-cost,secure and reliable electricity between states,providing$20 billion in savings to the energy system by 2050.Modelling suggests that 25GW of new inter-regional transmission is required NEM-wide by 2050 in Current trends an
27、d 47GW in Deep decarbonisation,to support the least cost evolution of our energy system.The transition to renewables is unstoppable The findings are clear the transition towards a clean energy future is unstoppable.In all scenarios examined,renewable energy supplies the majority of the NEMs electric
28、ity needs by 2050.In five out of the six scenarios,renewable energy supplies more than 70%of the NEMs annual energy needs by 2035 and more than 90%by 2050.The economic viability of Australias coal generators is being challenged by the influx of renewables.Our analysis indicates that,by 2030,with dec
29、arbonisation objectives aligned to a 1.5C temperature trajectory,as much as 18GW of coal capacity could be withdrawn from the NEM 13GW more than currently anticipated 1.The likely early retirement of coal generators highlights the critical need for an orderly,planned and just transition from coal,en
30、suring the energy system remains reliable,secure and affordable.Our analysis has identified seven key insights for the future of Australias energy system.The power system will play a central role in achieving economy-wide decarbonisation The electricity system will play a central role in supporting
31、Australias decarbonisation,underpinned by a rapid transition to renewable energy and the electrification of road transport,industry and buildings.If the vast majority of Australias vehicle fleet is electrified,as in Deep decarbonisation,almost 100TWh/year of energy demand could be added to the NEM b
32、y 2050,equivalent to half of the NEMs current annual demand.In this scenario,the electrification of industry and buildings is projected to add another 40TWh/year by 2050.Electricity generation currently accounts for 33%of Australias greenhouse gas emissions a.Under our business as usual Current tren
33、ds trajectory,the NEMs electricity system is projected to reduce its emissions 93%by 2050,while the remainder of the economy only sees a 7%reduction in emissions.To facilitate the Deep decarbonisation of Australias economy,the electricity system is fully decarbonised by 2035.The remainder of the eco
34、nomy achieves an 87%reduction in emissions by 2050.In our business as usual Current trends scenario,we project 108GW of largescale wind,solar photovoltaics(PV)and rooftop solar capacity is required in the NEM by 2050.This increases to 159GW in Deep decarbonisation,and 417GW in Clean energy superpowe
35、r.“A decarbonised power sector,dominated by renewable sources,is at the core of the transition to a sustainable energy future”IRENA,2018,Global Energy Transformation:A roadmap to 2050“Spreading the use of electricity into more parts of the economy is the single largest contributor to reaching net-ze
36、ro emissions”International Energy Agency,2020,Energy Technology PerspectivesForewordDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixSeven key insightsExecutive summary1.Based on announced retirement dates for coal generators,or a
37、t the end of their technical life,as recorded by AEMO.Executive summaryEnergy Vision|6Australia has a unique opportunity to harness its abundant renewable energy resources to become a global,clean energy leader Australias abundant renewable energy resources,large landmass,significant mineral ores an
38、d good access to Asian markets could set us up to become a Clean energy superpower,exporting zero-emissions green hydrogen,metals,and other products and services to the world.As the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis falls,our modelling projects that renewable electricity becomes the domin
39、ant energy source for Australian hydrogen production,representing 94%of total hydrogen production in 2050.With appropriate support,the levelised cost of green hydrogen is projected to fall below$2/kg in the early 2030s,reaching$1/kg by 2050 at major hydrogen producing locations on the south and east
40、 coast of Australia.Our modelling projects that QLD dominates the production and export of hydrogen and green steel from the 2030s,followed by NSW and WA in the 2040s.By 2050,North Queensland and the Hunter Valley in NSW are projected to produce and export the largest quantities of hydrogen and gree
41、n steel in Australia.Demand for electricity could surge in a Clean energy superpower future,increasing the NEMs electricity requirements six times by 2050.Becoming a clean energy leader provides clear long-term benefits for Australians Efforts to support domestic and global decarbonisation will supe
42、rcharge our economy,drive local job creation and lower energy costs for Australians.A Deep decarbonisation of the Australian economy supports 41,000 electricity sector jobs across the NEM this decade,45%more than in our business as usual future(Current trends).A Clean energy superpower future suppor
43、ts 68,000 electricity sector jobs on average from 2030-50,more than twice the level of jobs projected in Current trends.Modelling suggests a significant proportion of new renewable energy and downstream hydrogen and green steel production jobs will be created in regional areas in Clean energy superp
44、ower,many in similar locations to where existing coal industries are located,such as the Hunter Valley in NSW.Our modelling shows these regions can be at the forefront of Australias clean energy future.In an orderly transition of the energy system,no cohort of workers should be left behind.Communiti
45、es should be provided every opportunity to harness the full potential of new export industries.Properplanning and investment in reskilling and upskilling is required.A Clean energy superpower future would deliver the lowest cost of electricity,12%lower than Current trends over the period 2021-50.The
46、 decarbonisation of the Australian economy can deliver lower energy expenditure for residential consumers.Those with a single electric vehicle could be at least$900/year better off under a Deep decarbonisation scenario,when considering expenditure on electricity,rooftop solar,batteries and electricv
47、ehicles.A new suite of technologies,services and products will be required to maintain safe,reliable and secure power system operations as the energy system transforms Maintaining power system security will become increasingly complex as the energy system transforms.Demand response,largescale storag
48、e,aggregated behind-the-meter batteries,flexible hydrogen electrolysis,and electric vehicles with Vehicle-to-Grid technology are likely to become increasingly critical to help balance our energy system.Modelling projects that 18GW of dispatchable storage capacity is required by 2050 in Current trend
49、s,and 33GW in Deep decarbonisation.Grid forming inverters are projected to play a crucial role in supporting energy security as synchronous generators are withdrawn.Our modelling suggests that inertia and system strength ancillary services will represent between 1-3%of total system costs.Australia i
50、s already experiencing the effects of climate change.Building a more resilient energy system is a critical task for the coming decades.Distributed energy technologies and increasingly sophisticated consumers will play a key role in Australias future energy system Rooftop solar capacity is projected
51、to surge in the coming decades,increasing 3-9 times in the NEM,possibly to as high as 82GW by 2050.Distributed batteries in Virtual Power Plants and electric vehicles with Vehicle-to-Grid technology could provide 30%of the NEMs storage requirements in Deepdecarbonisation and up to 80%in Prosumer pow
52、er.The electricity sector must evolve to meet changing consumer expectations and leverage new distributed energy resource capabilities to support the ongoing stability of the electricity system.ForewordDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system
53、 implicationsAppendixSeven key insightsEfforts to support domestic and global decarbonisation will supercharge our economy,drive local job creation and lower energy costs for Australians.Executive summaryExecutive summary7Energy Vision|This vision is centred on three themes:a decarbonised economy,at
54、ransformed economy(with new export sectors)and a resilient andaffordable energy system.We see optimal advantage for Australia represented through a combination of Deep decarbonisation(medium-term)and Cleanenergy superpower(long-term).These two scenarios bring together the economic and climate benefi
55、ts captured through proactively embracing the energy transition and Australias natural advantages tobecome a renewable powerhouse.Our analysis indicates that the transition towards a clean energy future can create immense opportunity for Australia if we set ourselves on the optimal course.As a natio
56、n,we have the choice of how we respond to this transition,not whether it happens at all.ForewordDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixTo guide Australias energy transition,we need a clear vision for the future that we c
57、an collectively strive towards.Our vision for Australias energy systemExecutive summaryExecutive summaryOur vision is for Australia to become aglobal clean energy leader,benefitting communities,the economy and the environment.TransGrid operates and manages the high voltage electricity transmission n
58、etworkin NSW and the ACT.We offer a range of infrastructure and telecommunications services to meet the growing needs and expectations ofourcustomers.Our network connects NSW to Queensland and Victoria,andformsthebackbone of the National Energy Market(NEM).Our network transports electricity from mul
59、tiple generation sources,such as wind,solar,hydro,gas and coal power plants,to large directly connected industrial customers and the distribution networks that deliver it to homes and businesses.Comprising 119 substations and 13,204 kilometers of transmission lines and cables and five interconnectio
60、ns to QLD and VIC,the network is instrumental to the electricity system and economy and facilitates energy trading between Australias largest states.The National Electricity Market(NEM)is currently undergoing a period of transition as the generation mix changes to include more renewables and technol
61、ogy,allowing greater participation from customers in the energy market.We are working with our customers and stakeholders across the energy supply chain and decision-making bodies to ensure wemake abetter power system for Australians.8Energy Vision|ForewordDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDec
62、arbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixAbout TransgridThis Energy Vision is underpinned by detailed scenario modelling.Transgrid partnered with independent experts,CSIRO,ClimateWorks Australia and The Brattle Group,to model the implications of a range of futures
63、for Australias energy system out to 2050.The Brattle Group facilitated the development of our future energy scenarios.CSIRO and ClimateWorks Australia undertook quantitative market and system modelling on each scenario.Executive summaryExecutive summaryContact detailsFor all enquiries regarding the
64、Energy Vision and for making written submissions,contact:.au TransGrid 2021.All rights reserved.NSW Electricity Networks Operations Pty Limited(ACN 609 169 959),as trustee for NSW Electricity Networks Operations Trust(ABN 70 250 995 390).Registered business name is TransGrid(ABN 70 250 995 390).au9E
65、nergy Vision|Australias energy system is undergoing a once-in-a-lifetime transformation.Globally,the way energy is generated,stored,distributed and consumed ischanging at an unprecedented pace.Six forces are shaping the future of Australias energy system,underpinned by rapid technological advancemen
66、ts and government actions to decarbonise their economies.ForewordExecutive summaryFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixDrivers of changeDrivers of changeEnergy Vision|10Technology advancement Disruptive technological advancement is occ
67、urring across the energy supply chain,from renewable energy and storage technologies to distributed energy resources and smart-grid capabilities.These advancements are supported by digitisation,automation and artificialintelligence A combination of innovation and global deployment is driving signifi
68、cant cost reductionsDemand for electricity Long-term economic conditions are uncertain,including the ongoing viability of energy-intensive industries in Australia There is scope for a substantial growth in distributed generation and energy efficiency,which could reduce the demand for grid connected
69、electricity New demand sources are emerging,which may significantly increase the demand for electricity,through the electrification of road transport,buildings and industry and from electricity-intensive industries,such as green hydrogen 1 and green metal productionThe decarbonisation imperative Glo
70、bal emissions reductions are not on track to meet the Paris Agreements 1.5C aspiration or 2C goal.A rapid transformation isrequired While current progress is insufficient,more than three-fifths of global CO2 emissions are under net zero emissions targets b Energy market rules and regulations Rules a
71、nd regulations built for Australias legacy energy system are in a state of flux.Australias Energy Security Board has been tasked with a wholesale redesign of the NEM by 2025Community expectations There are increasing community expectations to reduce our impacts on the environment Disruptions and ben
72、efits of Australias energy transition will be felt differently by different communitiesConsumer preferences and decentralisation Consumers are expressing a desire to be more in control of their energy supply and use,enabled by distributed energy resources Consumers are likely to have a greater inter
73、action with the electricity system,through Virtual Power Plants,smart electric vehicle charging and Vehicle-to-Grid technology.These prosumers will be more sophisticated and diverse,not simply price takers from the gridForewordExecutive summaryDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower syst
74、em implicationsAppendixThe evolution of Australias energy system will be influenced by six forces shaped by technological,economic,social and political trends.1.Green hydrogen is the production of hydrogen via electrolysis,powered by renewable energy.Green steel is the production of steel using gree
75、n hydrogen and renewable electricity through a direct reduction process.Green metals and products refer generally to metals and products produced using renewable energy.Six forces shaping the future of Australias energy systemDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDrivers of change1.Shaded area rep
76、resents the minimum and maximum cost projections,cost converted to Australian dollars with a 2020 average conversion rate of US$1=A$0.69.Source:BloombergNEF,1H 2021,Levelised Cost of Energy Data Viewer.Energy Vision|11In parallel,everyday Australians have embraced rooftop solar at an unprecedented p
77、ace.More than one in four Australian households now have solar panels on their homesh.In2020 alone,3GW of new capacity was added i,bringing the total Australian residential rooftop solar capacity to more than14GW j.Continued technological advancement and energy cost reductions are likely to further
78、reshape the energy system.Thecost of solar PV in Australia is projected to fall a further 70%by 2050,50%for wind and 60%for grid batteries k.Already,we can see that the transition towards renewables is unstoppable.Globally,the cost of solar PV has fallen 87%and wind 63%since 2009,and battery storage
79、 has fallen 80%since 2013 c.For projects with low-cost financing that tap high-quality resources,solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in history d.In Australia,the share of electricity generated from coal in the NEM has fallen from 78%to 65%since 2010.The share of electricity generated
80、 from variable renewable energy has increased from 2%to 21%over the same period e.By the end of 2020,more than 11GW of largescale wind and solar PV were deployed and 76 largescale wind and solar PV projects were under construction f.And this is just the beginning 55GW of largescale wind,solar PV and
81、 storage have been proposed for connection across the NEM g.Figure 2:Projections of the levelised cost of energy in Australia for new capacity 400$500 20032203820442050Solar PVWindGas(CCGT)Gas(OCGT)CoalGrid battery(4h)Levelised cost of energy(A$/MWh,real 2020 dollars)Disruptive
82、 technological advancement is occurring across the energy supply chain,from renewable energy and storage technologies to distributed energy resources and smart-grid capabilities,leading to rapid cost reductions.ForewordExecutive summaryFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur V
83、isionPower system implicationsAppendixTechnological advancementGlobally,the cost of solar PV has fallen 87%and wind 63%since 2009,and battery storage has fallen 80%since 2013The cost of solar PV in Australia is projected to fall a further 70%by 2050,50%for wind and 60%for grid batteriesDrivers of ch
84、angeDrivers of changeEnergy Vision|12Energy Vision|At the same time,positive community sentiment towards action on climate change continues to grow.The majority(71%)of Australians agree that we should be world leaders in finding solutions to climate change n.Significantly,all Australian states and t
85、erritories have made commitments to reach net zero emissions by 2050.Australian businesses are also taking direct action,with 18%of organisations surveyed committed to net zero by 2050 for some emissions o.But,despite the Paris Agreement and mounting efforts by governments,businesses and consumers t
86、o reduce their carbon footprints,the world is not on track to avoid dangerous climate change.Our current trajectory will lead to catastrophic warming.We are at“code red for humanity”p.Deloitte Access Economics has modelled the impacts of unchecked climate change on the Australian economy.Theanalysis
87、 suggests that,by 2070,Australias GDP would haveshrunk by 6%,a$3.4 trillion loss in GDP(present value)at a cost of 880,000 jobs q.In 2015,as the world woke up to the catastrophic consequences of unchecked climate change,the Paris Agreement was adopted by 197 parties,including Australia,representing
88、97%of global greenhouse gas emissions l.The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty,with its goal to limit global warming to well below 2C,preferably to 1.5C,compared with pre-industrial levels m.“Under policies firmly in place,the world is headed for 2.7C of warming.Even if countr
89、ies meet their net-zero targets in full,temperatures would rise 2.1C”International Energy Agency,2021,Net Zero by 2050“Unchecked,climate change could shrink Australias GDP 6%by 2070,at a cost of 880,000 jobs”Deloitte Access Economics,2020,A new choice Australias climate for growthForewordExecutive s
90、ummaryFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixThe decarbonisation imperativeDrivers of changeDrivers of change13Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixFuture e
91、nergy scenariosIn February 2021,Texass electricity infrastructure was overwhelmed by an extreme polar vortex,triggering the largest forced power outage in United States history.Freezing weather shut off natural gas supplies,froze instruments in gas,coal and nuclear power plants and iced over wind tu
92、rbines.As demand for heating soared to record levels,more than five million homes and businesses were left without power for nearly four days straight r.In June 2021,a heatwave hit north-western United States and Canada,with temperature records being broken by as much as 5C.The heatwave was linked t
93、o several hundred deaths and,in some regions,caused rolling blackouts and even melted power cables and road surfaces.The event was assessed to be a once in a thousand year event,made at least 150-times more likely because of climate changes.On the other side of the world,a once in a thousand year ra
94、infall event hit China in July 2021,causing widespread flooding,death and destruction.In the same month,heavy floods wiped out villages,infrastructure and killed more than 200 people in Germany.And,in India,the heaviest monsoon rains in decades overflowed rivers,triggered landslides,killed more than
95、 125 people and left entire neighbourhoodssubmerged t.Australian land areas have already warmed by around 1.4C since 1910u and future impacts will affect all sectors of our economy,our communities and ecosystems.Water supply reliability is expected to decline in southern and eastern Australia,temper
96、atures will rise,heatwaves,storms and floods will become more common and risks to infrastructure will increase v.The projected increase in the number of days where temperatures will rise above 35C in NSW is shown in Figure 3,under a high global warming scenario.Figure 3:Historical(1981-2010),left,an
97、d projected(2070),right,number of days above 35C during the December to February period for a RCP8.5 scenario wBuilding a more resilient energy system is a critical task for the comingdecades.Climate change and the energy sectorSpotlightDrivers of changeDrivers of changeEffective scenario planning r
98、equires scenarios that span the range of plausible future outcomes.Energy Vision|14Consumer choices and technology advancement drive a very high penetration of well-coordinated distributed energy resources into the energy system Extremely high uptake of rooftop solar,behind-the-meter storage and ele
99、ctric vehicles(many equipped with Vehicle-to-Grid capabilities)Artificial intelligence and automation enable the coordination of consumer devices to respond to local system and market conditions A net zero emissions economy is achieved by 2050Market forces,international and domestic politics and con
100、sumer expectations drive a huge reduction in carbon emissions across all sectors of our economy.Australia commits to limit global warming to 1.5C,in line with the aspirations of the Paris Agreement Australia achieves net zero emission by 2035 and then net-negative emissions beyond Our electricity sy
101、stem is powered by 100%renewable energy from 2035 Internal combustion engine vehicles are completely phased out by 2050,replaced primarily by electric vehicles Hydrogen is used for some domestic heavy-transport and industry applications and for peaking electricity generation Australia leverages its
102、abundant renewable energy resources and mineral ores to become a global clean energy superpower,exporting green hydrogen and metals to the world Australias hydrogen sector grows to produce 19.2 million tonnes(MT)of hydrogen annually by 2050.This is broadly consistent with the high scenario from Aust
103、ralias National Hydrogen Strategy 61%of the hydrogen produced is exported to our trading partners,22%is used to produce green steel for export and 17%is for other domestic purposes Australian steel production increases significantly(from 0.3%to 5%of global steel output)and aluminum production(a five
104、-fold growth)A net zero emissions economy is achieved by 2050 A global economic downturn causes Australias economic growth to slump,particularly impacting the industrial sector Industrial electricity consumption in the NEM declines by 50%to 2025.Australias aluminum and steel production facilities cl
105、ose by 2025 Commercial electricity demand falls by 9%in the NEM before slowly growing in the 2040s A breakdown of NEM regulations sees a siloed approach from the states which establish their own policies and local energy solutions.A regulatory impasse prevents new interstate transmission development
106、s from proceeding New transmission links between states cannot be built,although existing links remain in use Each state must generate and balance its own electricity tomaintain energyreliability Other modelling assumptions align totheCurrent trends scenarioAgeing coal power stations are replaced wi
107、th competitively priced large and small-scale renewables and storage Economic growth,immigration and energy efficiency are consistent with historic and projected growth rates under present trends,taking into account current projections for the recovery fromCOVID-19 Electric vehicle,rooftop solar and
108、 behind-the-meter battery uptake is consistent with current centralprojections Current trends Deep decarbonisation Prosumer power De-industrialisation death spiral States go it alone Clean energy superpowerForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower
109、system implicationsAppendixIn partnership with independent experts,CSIRO,ClimateWorks Australia and TheBrattleGroup,we have developed and modelled six possible futures for Australiasenergy system out to 2050.The following scenarios explore the impact of different combinations of the six forces liste
110、d on the previous page.Moredetails on the approach can be found in Appendix 1.1.Future energy scenariosFuture energy scenariosEnergy Vision|15Scenarios can be compared against their level of decarbonisation,decentralisation and underlying electricity consumption in Figure 4.Detailed scenario assumpt
111、ions are presented in Appendix 1.2.Figure 4:Comparing scenarios against the level of Australias decarbonisation,the decentralisation of the electricity system and the underlying electricity consumption in the NEM in 2050(represented by the size of the bubble)Highly decentralisedStrong decarbonisatio
112、nStates go it aloneCurrent trendsProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerThe further to the right,the more significant and rapid the decarbonisation is,such as in Deep decarbonisationThe higher up on this chart,the greater the proportion of behind-th
113、e-meter(rooftop solar)generation to total generation,such as in Prosumer powerThe size of the bubble represents our economys underlying electricity consumption in 2050,irrespective of whether the power is produced behind-or in front-of-the meter.Clean energy superpower has the greatest electricity r
114、equirementsEnergy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixScenario comparisonsFuture energy scenariosFuture energy scenarios16Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey
115、trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixScenario-based planning is essential to ensure a robust energy system into the future.It is particularly useful in times of rapid change and disruption.The global growth in solar PV is a good example of why planning for divergent and unexpected future
116、 outcomes is crucial.The importance of scenario planning05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000WEO 2009WEO 2010WEO 2011WEO 2012WEO 2013WEO 2014WEO 2015WEO 2016WEO 2017WEO 2018WEO 2019WEO 2020(STEPS)Actual2000200520025203020352040Culmulative global solar capacity (GW)In 2009,the Internatio
117、nal Energy Agency predicted that 96GW of solar PV would be installed globally by 2020.In reality,718GW was installed.SpotlightFuture energy scenariosFigure 5:Cumulative global solar capacity.Historical data is shown in red and central outlooks from the International Energy Agencys World Energy Outlo
118、ok(WEO)are shown in green.Source:Transgrid analysis of Carbon Brief x,from the World Energy Outlook 2020 y and previous editions Future energy scenariosEnergy Vision|17Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system impl
119、icationsAppendixKey trendsKey trendsThis section explores the key electricity sector trends that unfold under our sixscenarios,as modelled by CSIRO and ClimateWorks Australia.We can already see signs of some of our future scenarios,with many of their indicators forming cleartrends that should inform
120、 investment in the energy system.Energy Vision|18ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixUnstoppable transition to renewablesIn all future scenarios,our least-cost modelling shows that renewable energy will
121、 supply the vast majority of Australias electricity production by 2050 94%in Current trends and 100%in Clean energy superpower.All the evidence points to the fact that the transition from a fossil fuel to renewable energy based power system is unstoppable.Key trendsIn our business as usual,Current t
122、rends scenario,renewable energy is projected to supply 64%of the NEMs annual electricity needs by 2030 and 94%by 2050Renewable energy supplies 91%of the NEMs annual electricity needs by 2030 in Deep decarbonisation,and 100%by 2035Figure 6:Annual share of renewable energy generation to total generati
123、on in the NEM,inclusive of largescale wind and solar PV,rooftop solar,hydro and biomass0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAnnual renewable energy genera
124、tion share(%)Key trendsEnergy Vision|19Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixThe growth of renewables is challenging the economic viability of Australias aging coal generators.Our analysis i
125、ndicates a high likelihood of early coal withdrawal across a range of future scenarios.1.Expected closure years are sourced from AEMOs 2020 Integrated System Plan Chart Data,reflecting committed retirement dates from coal generators or at the 50th year of operation,whichever comes first.The baseline
126、 closure year for Yallourn Power Station has been updated to 2028.Source:https:/.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2020-integrated-system-plan-isp.Multiple factors could accelerate the NEMs current transition from a coal to renewable-based power system,including:Furt
127、her cost reductions and deployments of renewables and storage driving down the price of electricity,making it more difficult for coal generators to remain profitable More ambitious climate change policies The technical failure of coal units,driven by age and increased ramping in response to variable
128、 renewable energy A growing consumer preference for low emissions electricity The increased likelihood of early coal closures highlights the importance of an orderly and planned transition,ensuring there is reliable,secure and affordable power as the system transitions to firmed renewables.The Insti
129、tute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and Green Energy Markets recently concluded that,by 2025,coal plants in the NEM are likely to see a 44-67%reduction in revenues,the financial viability of several generators will be severely compromised and at least one generator may closeEdis,T.,Bowy
130、er,J.,2021,Green Energy Markets and Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis,Fast Erosion of Coal Plant Profits in the National Electricity Market Early coal retirement is increasingly likelyIn Current trends,7GW of coal capacity is withdrawn from the NEM by 2030,2GW more than currently
131、 anticipatedA rapid withdrawal of coal capacity is seen in the mid-2030s in Clean energy superpower and Prosumer power De-industrialisation death spiral suggests that if a significant proportion of Australias industrial demand was lost,excess supply would precipitate the early withdrawal of some coa
132、l generatorsIn Deep decarbonisation,all coal generation ceases by 2032,reducing economy-wide emissions at the lowest costIf Australias climate ambitions were dropped and we experienced low fossil fuel prices,coal life extensions may be economic,as shown in De-industrialisation deathspiralFigure 7:Pr
133、ojected coal generation capacity in the NEM.Grey bars represent AEMOs expected closure years 2020202520302035204020452050AEMOs expected closure yearCurrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerCoal generation ca
134、pacity(GW)Key trendsKey trendsEnergy Vision|20ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixIn all scenarios,distributed energy technologies and increasingly sophisticated consumers will play a key role in Austra
135、lias future energy system.Figure 8:Projected growth in rooftop solar and behind-the-meter storage in the NEMEvolving customer expectations and a growing range of technologies are facilitating the democratisation of energy.Previously passive electricity consumers are becoming empowered prosumers who
136、make their own choices about howtheir energy is produced,stored and used.Rooftop solar and behind-the-meter storageRooftop solar and behind-the-meter storage capacity is projected tosurge in the coming decades,as projected in Figure8.Prosumer power stress tests the implications of exceptionally high
137、 distributed energy resource penetration on thedesign and operation of our energy system.By2050,more than 80%of Australian homes have rooftop solar 1.1.This is considered a fully saturated market,including penetrating into most rental residential homes and many business rentals.0070 Behin
138、d the meter storage capacity(GWh)Behind-the-meter storage 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 20202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020452050Rooftop solarCurrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralClean energy superpower&States go it aloneRooftop solar capacit
139、y(GW)Rise of the prosumerKey trendsKey trends21Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixProsumer power has the highest proportion of behind-the-meter generation,with rooftop solar providing 27%
140、of the NEMs electricity needs by 2050.The remaining 73%of our electricity requirements are met from largescale generators,delivered through the transmission backbone.It isnt an either/or;both small and largescale generation is required to meet Australias changing electricityneeds.Critical role for b
141、oth behind-and in front-of-the-meter generation1.Underlying electricity consumption represents the amount of electricity consumed,irrespective of whether it is supplied from behind-the-meter(e.g.rooftop solar)or in front-of-the-meter sources.Spotlight0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020202520302035204020452050Cu
142、rrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerPortion of underlying electricity consumptionsupplied by rooftop solar(%)Figure 9:The proportion of underlying electricity consumption 1 met by rooftop solar in the NEMKey trendsKe
143、y trendsEnergy Vision|22Electric vehicles are projected to see mass-market penetration in the coming decade.While global passenger vehicle sales dropped 16%during the COVID-19 pandemic,sales of electric vehicles jumped 47%z.This trajectory is expected to accelerate,with falling electric vehicle cost
144、s driven by falling battery prices,dedicated electric vehicle manufacturing platforms and government support and incentives.In Europe,battery electric vehicles are expected to reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles between 2025 and 2027 aa.1.Including passenger vehicles,light co
145、mmercial vehicles,trucks,busses and motorcycles.ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixAustralia currently lags other major economies in the growth of electric vehicles,with electric vehicle sales accounti
146、ng for only 1.1%of all new car sales,behind the global average of 5%.However,in the first half of 2021,Australias electric vehicle sales were twice that of the whole of 2020 ab.Across all scenarios,electric vehicle 1 uptake is projected to surge.Eight million electric vehicles are projected to be on
147、 the road across the NEM by 2050 in Current trends.Under Deep decarbonisation,we project there will be more than 3million electric vehicles by 2030 and 14 million by 2040.By 2050,all road transport is electrified,with the exception of 50%of articulated trucks.Patterns of vehicle use will also change
148、;for example,asautonomous vehicles are introduced for ridesharing.Figure 10:Projections of electric vehicle uptake across the NEMTo support the decarbonisation of our economy,by 2050,all road transport is electrified(with the exception of 50%of articulated trucks),with 23million electric vehicles on
149、 roads in NEM states0510152025 2020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerNumber of electric vehicles(million)Electric VehiclesRise of the prosumer Key trendsUnder Deep decarbonisation,we proje
150、ct there will be more than 3 million electric vehicles on roads in NEM states by 2030,14 million by 2040 and 23 million by 2050Key trendsEnergy Vision|23ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixSurging demand for electricity in the c
151、oming decades could reshape our electricity system.Underlying electricity consumption isprojected to grow over six times to 2050 in Clean energy superpower.Electricity consumption also grows significantly in Prosumerpower and Deep decarbonisation,primarily due to the electrification of road transpor
152、t and industry.Surging demand for electricityDecarbonisation,jobs&costsNEM demand doubles by 2035 andthentriples again by 2050 in Clean energy superpower,driven by the production ofhydrogen and green steelEven with significant efficiency improvements,electrification and hydrogen production drives a
153、near doubling of underlying electricity consumption in Deep decarbonisation(electrification adds an extra 134TWh and hydrogen production an extra 39TWh in 2050)In our business as usual Currenttrends scenario,NEM consumption grows 40%by 2050,primarily driven by vehicle electrification(48TWh additiona
154、l by2050)0200100400300X2020202520302035204020452050(1,121TWh)Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerUnderlying electricity consumption(TWh)Note:Our modelling includes the economic and population impacts of COVID-19 on
155、 electricity demand,on changes in commercial and industrial activity in the short term and a decline in immigration in the medium term.Figure 11:Projected growth in underlying electricity consumption in the NEMKey trendsKey trends24Energy Vision|Strong electricity sector job growthStrong decarbonisa
156、tionStates go it aloneCurrent trendsProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerThe higher up,the greater the jobs created.A Clean energy superpower future would support 57,000 full-time Australian electricity sector jobs on average over the next 30 year
157、sThe further to the right,the more significant and rapid the decarbonisation is,such as in Deep decarbonisationForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixDecarbonisation,jobs&costsThe modelling offers clear insight into which
158、 scenarios will set Australia up toachieve net zero emissions,while also maximising job creation and keeping energy prices affordable.Figure 12 presents the six scenarios across these three key dimensions:decarbonisation,job creation and energy costs.Figure 12:Comparing scenarios against their level
159、 of decarbonisation and electricity sector jobs created.The size of the bubble represents the average cost of electricity between 2021-50Decarbonisation,jobs&costs 1.Business as usual,without additional emissions reduction activities.Source:Australian Government,Department of Environment and Energy,
160、2020,Australias emissions projections 2020,https:/www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-emissions-projections-202025Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixFigure 13 projects the outlook for Au
161、stralias greenhouse gas emissions across the six scenarios modelled.Our business as usual,Current trends scenario follows a 4C temperature rise trajectory.Only a Deep decarbonisation of the Australian economy is consistent with the Paris Agreements aspirational 1.5C trajectory.Figure 13:Emissions pr
162、ojections for the Australian economy-300-300400500600 26-28%emissions reductions target202020252030203520402045205026-28%emissions reduction targetGovernment emissions projections(2020)14C trajectories2C trajectories1.5C trajectoryCurrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-indu
163、strialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAustralias net emissions(Mt CO2-e)DecarbonisationDecarbonisation,jobs&costs“Choosing net zero is an economic necessity.Holding global temperature rise to 1.5C could increase GDP by 2.6%and add 250,000 jobs to the Australian economy b
164、y 2070”Deloitte Access Economics,2020,A new choice Australias climate for growthDecarbonisation,jobs&costsEnergy Vision|26ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixA Deep decarbonisation of Australias economy would require 4
165、1,000 Australian electricity sector jobs on average over the next 10 years(full time equivalent),45%more than projected in Current trends.In the following two decades,a Cleanenergy superpower future would support 68,000electricity sector jobs,more than twice the level ofjobsprojected in Current tren
166、ds.This analysis considers Australian jobs required to enable the production of electricity in the NEM ac.Sectors include coal,gas,largescale wind and solar PV,grid batteries,pumped hydro storage,rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries,and the construction of new electricity transmission infras
167、tructure.These sectors can be broken down into construction,installation,manufacturing,operations and maintenance and thermal coal and gas extraction for our domestic electricity sector.Note:Our analysis does not assess additional indirect and downstream jobs created,for example in the production of
168、 hydrogen,green steel or any other use of electricity,which are likely to be multiples of the figures presented here.As our energy system transforms,new electricity sector jobs will be created.Many of these jobs will be located in regional Australia,supporting the construction and operation of gener
169、ation,storage and transmission within and around renewable energy zones.Figure 14:Projections of electricity sector jobs in the NEMElectricity sector jobsJobs surge as the growing demand for electricity from greenhydrogen and metals production and the retirement of coal drives the rollout of renewab
170、le energy generation inClean energy superpowerJob growth is seen in the early 2030s as renewables replace coal generators as they retire in Prosumer powerJob growth is driven by the rapid rollout of renewable energy to reduce emissions intensive coal generation in Deep decarbonisation020,00040,00060
171、,00080,000100,0002020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerElectricity sector jobs(FTE)Decarbonisation,jobs&costsA Clean energy superpower future supports 68,000 electricity sector jobs on ave
172、rage from 2030-50,more than twice the level of jobs projected in Current trendsDecarbonisation,jobs&costsEnergy Vision|27ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixLargescale wind,solar PV and rooftop solar make up the majori
173、ty of jobs in Deepdecarbonisation,as well as pumped hydro and electricity transmission jobs in Cleanenergy superpower,as shown in Figure 15.Coal and gas jobs decline in both scenarios,from a high of approximately 11,000 jobs in 2021.Jobs arent only created by the construction or installation of rene
174、wables.Operations and maintenance jobs also increase steadily over time,as shown in Figure 16.Electricity sector jobsFigure 15:Jobs required to support the NEMs electricity sector in Clean energy superpower and Deep decarbonisation,split by technologyFigure 16:Jobs required to support the NEMs elect
175、ricity sector in Clean energy superpower and Deep decarbonisation,split by type of workBlack coalBrown coalGas(CCGT)Peaking gas+liquidsHydroBiomassWindSolar PVRooftop solarGrid batteryPumped hydroBehind-the-meter batteryTransmissionDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerElectricity sector jobs(F
176、TE)20202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020452050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000 Electricity sector jobs(FTE)Black coalBrown coalGas(CCGT)Peaking gas+liquidsHydroBiomassWindSolar PVRooftop solarGrid batteryPumped hydroBehind-the-meter batteryTransmissionDe
177、ep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerElectricity sector jobs(FTE)Deep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerOperations&maintenanceConstruction/installationLocal manufacturingFuel extraction(coal&gas)2020202520302035204020452050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000 202
178、0202520302035204020452050Electricity sector jobs(FTE)Electricity sector jobs(FTE)Deep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerOperations&maintenanceConstruction/installationLocal manufacturingFuel extraction(coal&gas)202020252030203520402045Operations&maintenance:In the 2040s,operations and maintenanc
179、e jobs represent 70%of all electricity sector jobs in Deep decarbonisationFossil fuels:In 2021,approximately 11,000 jobs were required to operate and maintain coal and gas generators and to mine thermal coal and extract gas for domestic power generationDecarbonisation,jobs&costsDecarbonisation,jobs&
180、costsEnergy Vision|28Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixOur modelling suggests that domestic demand for thermal coal will decline to zero or near-zero by 2050 across all scenarios.Globally,our top three
181、thermal coal export marketsae,Japan,China and South Korea,have all announced their intention to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of the century(2060 for China).NSW Treasury projects that,by 2050,NSW coal volumes will fall by almost 40%under a high global coal demand scenario,and NSW will cea
182、se producing coal by 2041 under a low global coal demand scenario af.It is essential that Australia plans and ensures a just transition for workers and communities reliant on fossil fuel mining and electricity generation,including direct and indirect workers.Our modelling suggests that a Clean energ
183、y superpower future will create a significant quantity of new jobs in renewable energy,storage,transmission and downstream hydrogen and steel production,many in similar locations to where existing fossil fuel industries are located,such as the Hunter Valley in NSW.These regions can be at the forefro
184、nt of Australias clean energy future.But we need an orderly transition of the power system to not only ensure no community is left behind,but that communities are provided every opportunity to harness the full potential of new export industries.Proper planning and investment in reskilling and upskil
185、ling is required.Australian thermal coal mining,for export and domestic use ad,creates almost 25,000 direct and many more indirect jobs.The orderly transition from fossil fuel jobsSpotlightDecarbonisation,jobs&costsDecarbonisation,jobs&costsEnergy Vision|29ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeF
186、uture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixSince 2016,the unexpected retirement of two power stations triggered a rapid rise in Australias average wholesale electricity prices,peaking at just over$90/MWh in 2019.In mid-2020,prices fell by up to 58%compared with 2019 a
187、g,driven by:Increased renewable generation,both largescale solar PV and wind and rooftop solar A reduction in electricity consumption due to the impacts ofthe COVID-19 pandemic A temporary reduction in domestic gas prices,corresponding with a reduction in international gas and oilprices A reduction
188、in coal-fired generation to levels below what was seen prior to the retirement of Northern and Hazelwood powerstationsLooking ahead,our analysis finds the cost of electricity in the NEM will remain below that of the previous five years for the coming three decades.The influx of new renewable generat
189、ion is likely to support low electricity prices for the coming 5-10 years1,due to a short term oversupply in generation capacity,before the cost of electricity rises and then stabilises at around$70-80/MWh in all scenarios,except Clean energy superpower.The comparisons presented in Figure 17 reflect
190、 the multiple complex drivers included in each scenario.Consequently,lower electricity costs do not necessarily mean a better outcome but merely a different outcome.1.Our modelling has not considered the impact of unexpected plant failures on the price of electricity;for example,as was seen followin
191、g the explosion at Callide Power Station in May 2021.Electricity prices$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100 2002520302035204020452050Historic priceCurrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAverage annual cost of
192、electricity ($/MWh,real 2021 dollars)Decarbonisation,jobs&costsFigure 17:Historical and projected average annual cost of electricity in the NEM,including the cost of transmission and system security servicesLower prices are accompanied by increased unemployment,reduced disposable income and lower st
193、andards of living in De-industrialisation death spiralFlexible hydrogen production reduces the need for storage in the NEM in Clean energy superpower,lowering the cost of electricityStorage costs increase non-linearly as we get close to 100%renewable energy,and more expensive zero emissions peaking
194、plants are required after 2035 in Deep decarbonisationCoal generation is replaced before the end of its technical life by renewables to reduce emissions in Deep decarbonisationNote:Figure 17s projections represent the long run marginal cost of electricity and include the cost of transmission and sys
195、tem security services.Decarbonisation,jobs&costsEnergy Vision|30Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixFive of the six scenarios(except De-industrialisation death spiral)converge to 90-100%renewable energy s
196、hare by 2050,translating to an 85-95%variable renewable energy share.The rise in the cost of electricity in the 2030s and the convergence of these costs can therefore be explained by:The retirement of sunk-cost coal generation capacity in the2030s The increase in renewable generation,which increases
197、 the requirement for electricity storage.The duration of storage required increases non-linearly with increasing variable renewable energy share,and the capital cost of storage technology increases with storage duration Increased renewable energy deployment requires additional integration technology
198、,such as transmission and system security servicesThese factors are offset by falling technology costs,as shown inFigure 2,which leads to a flattening out of electricity costs in the 2040s.In contrast,Clean Energy Superpower converges towards$65/MWh by 2050 but has a renewable share of close to 100%
199、.The reason for this lower cost outcome is the presence of a major hydrogen industry that consumes the majority of electricity in the system,but only when variable renewable energy is available 1.This enormous source of demand management is equivalent to a much lower variable renewable energy share.
200、The lowest electricity costs for much of the projection period are associated with De-industrialisation Death Spiral.This is because falling demand is associated with very low investment.Therefore costs remain below the long-run marginal costs of new supply for a long period.Eventually,coal retireme
201、nts trigger the need for investment and electricity costs rise to the level of the other scenarios.1.The model is free to produce hydrogen at a flat rate but the least cost solution for the whole system is to sacrifice utilisation of the electrolysis plant and match production to renewable output.El
202、ectricity pricesDecarbonisation,jobs&costsOur analysis finds the cost of electricity in the NEM will remain below that of the previous five years for the coming three decadesDecarbonisation,jobs&costs31Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur Visio
203、nPower system implicationsAppendixClean energy superpower achieves the lowest average energy cost,12%lower than Current trends.This is primarily driven by the synergy of flexible hydrogen production and lower storage requirements in the NEM from 2035 onwards.Deep decarbonisation has 7%higher average
204、 energy costs than Current trends,reflecting the early retirement of all coal and gas generators to achieve a 100%renewable energy system by 2035.Comparing the breakdown of energy supply chain components in Figure 18,distribution costs account for the largest share,representing 43-51%of total system
205、 costs in all scenarios except Clean energy superpower.This is higher than previous estimates of around 20%by CSIRO and Electricity Networks Australia ah,primarily because renewable generation and storage costs have fallen more significantly than expected,while productivity improvements in the distr
206、ibution sector have been more incremental.Figure 18:Normalised average cost of electricity for the NEM over the period 2021-50Normalised electricity system costsClean energy superpower achieves the lowest average energy cost,12%lower than Current trends$0$20$40$60$80$100 CurrenttrendsDeepdecarbonisa
207、tionProsumerpowerDe-industrialisationdeath spiralStates goit aloneClean energysuperpowerGeneration CAPEXGeneration OPEXFuel(coal,gas,hydrogen)StorageDERDistributionSystem SecurityTransmission AugexTransmission OPEXAverage normalised cost of electricitybetwen 2021-50($/MWh,real 2021 dollars)Marginall
208、y higher average electricity costs in Deep decarbonisation are driven by investment necessary to rapidly transition to a 100%renewable energy power systemThe lowest average electricity cost is seen in Clean energy superpower due to synergies between flexible hydrogen production and reduced storagere
209、quirementsNormalising for electricity consumption provides the fairest comparison of total system cost between scenarios.Figure 18 compares the six scenarios based on their 2021-50 average cost of energy($/MWh),inclusive of distribution costs and consumer expenditure on distributed energy resources.
210、Decarbonisation,jobs&costsDecarbonisation,jobs&costsEnergy Vision|32ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosKey trendsOur VisionPower system implicationsAppendixThe decarbonisation of the Australian economy can deliver lower energy expenditure for residential consumers.Resid
211、ential consumers with a single electric vehicle could be at least$900/year better off under a Deepdecarbonisation scenario,when considering expenditure on electricity,rooftop solar,batteries and electric vehicles.Transport for NSW notes that electric vehicles are significantly cheaper to operate tha
212、n internal combustion engine vehicles,with fuel cost savings of around 70%and maintenance savings of around 40%.For an average private car owner,this could amount to savings of$1,000 per year ai.Our modelling assesses the electricity expenditure of a typical residential consumer,when considering bot
213、h their electricity bills and their personal spending on rooftop solar and batteries,but excludes the potential cost savings that come from switching away from petrol,diesel or gas to electricity.Our modelling therefore inherently disadvantages scenarios with higher levels of electrification,such as
214、 Deep decarbonisation.This is because the analysis includes additional electricity expenditure due to fuel switching(for example,switching from liquid fuels to electricity with electric vehicles or from gas to electricity for heating)but excludes reduced expenditure on these other fuels.Figure 19 su
215、ggests that residential consumers 2021-50 average expenditure on electricity,rooftop solar and batteries in Deepdecarbonisation is only 4%higher($90/year)than Currenttrends.Yet,electric vehicles are three times more prevalent in Deep decarbonisation.Once electric vehicles reach cost parity in the 20
216、30s,the approximate$1,000 per car per year savings from electric vehicles alone will significantly outweigh the$90/year electricity expenditure increase.Thus,the net impact of Deepdecarbonisation on residential consumers electricity expenditure will be positive,and much lower than Figure 19 suggests
217、.Figure 19 shows that average household electricity spending remains between$2,300-2,500 per year across all scenarios,with the exception of De-industrialisation death spiral,which leads to the highest electricity expenditure for residential consumers.While wholesale electricity prices halved in 202
218、0,a reduction in electricity bills of this magnitude is not likely to be seen by residential consumers in the coming years,since wholesale electricity prices represent only 34%of total expenditure.The remaining components are made up of distribution costs(35%),environmental policies(9%),transmission
219、(8%),metering(3%)and other costs(11%)aj.Our results suggest that average residential electricity expenditure in 2021 is likely to be 5%less than what was seen in 2019.Figure 19:Projected electricity expenditure for an average residential consumer in the NEM,inclusive of electricity bills and consume
220、r spending on rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteriesHigher wholesale prices,reflecting the cost of early replacement of coal with renewables,leads to a small rise in electricity costs for residential consumers in Deepdecarbonisation.This will be more than offset by lower spending on petrol,die
221、sel and gasHigher retail prices,lower distributed energy resources and growing peak demand lead to the highest cost of electricity for consumers in De-industrialisation deathspiral$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000Annual electricity expenditure for an averageresidential consumer($,real 2021 dollar
222、s)2020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerWhat it means for residential consumersFlexible hydrogen productionreduces therequirement for energy storage in thesystem,providing lower electricit
223、y pricesforresidential consumers in Clean energysuperpowerDecarbonisation,jobs&costsBased on existing tariff structures,commercial and industrial customers cross-subsidise residential consumers with rooftop solar and batteries,leading to lower residential expenditure in Prosumer power“If we electrif
224、y the average Australian household,with solar panels on the roof,a home battery,electric vehicles in the garage,and replacement of gas appliances with efficient electric ones,wecan save$5,433 per year in household costs for the average home by 2030”Rewiring Australia,2021,Castles and Cars-savings in
225、 the suburbs through electrifying everythingDecarbonisation,jobs&costs33Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixThis Energy Vision sets out the least cost evolution of our energy system under
226、a range of possible future scenarios and presents an evidence-based vision for a future that provides clear long-term benefits for Australians.Our modelling shows that this future is achievable.But to realise this potential,the pace of change needs to rapidly accelerate.There is no time to waste.We
227、trust these insights will support energy system stakeholders in formulating the policies,reforms and investments required to enable the rapid and orderly decarbonisation of our energy system and build Australia the energy system we needtothrive in a clean energy future.Our visionOur VisionEnergy Vis
228、ion|34A decarbonised economy limiting global warming to well below 2CA transformed economy seizing the opportunity to grow Australias economy,jobs and prosperityA resilient and affordable energy system building a secure,reliable and resilient energy system that provides affordable energy for allFore
229、wordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixOur analysis indicates that the transition towards a clean energy future can create immense opportunity for Australia if we set ourselves on the optimal course.Our vision
230、 is for Australia to become a global clean energy leader,benefitting communities,theeconomy and the environment.As a nation,we have the choice of how we respond to this transition,not whether it happens at all.Australias energy system sits at the centre of this vision.It is critical to enabling adec
231、arbonised economy and key to seizing the opportunity togrow our economy and jobs in aclean energyfuture.Figure 20:Exploring our vision for Australia Decarbonised economy Net zero emissions achieved economy-wide well before 2050 Strong energy efficiency,100%renewable energy,electrification of transpo
232、rt,industry and buildings,fuel switching and carbon offsetting are key pillars to decarbonise our economy Transformed economy Harnessing Australias renewable energy potential to become a global clean energy leader Leadership in emerging sectors(e.g.battery manufacturing,mining of battery resources)T
233、he revitalisation of our industries to manufacture and export green products(such as steel,aluminium and other metals)Export growth through zero emissions energy(such as hydrogen&electricity)Creating jobs and upskilling workers for new industries Resilient and affordable energy system A resilient en
234、ergy system in the face of climate change A secure and reliable energy system Affordable electricity Our visionOur VisionEnergy Vision|35203520212050Our Energy Vision forAustraliaClean energy superpowerDeep decarbonisationStrong electricity sector job growthStrong decarbonisationStates go it aloneCu
235、rrent trendsProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerFigure 21:Deep decarbonisation and Clean energy superpower offer a pathway to a low emissions economy that supports job creation and provides affordable electricity for AustraliansOur vision is for
236、Australia to become a global clean energy leader not just decarbonising our own economy,but also supporting the decarbonisation of the global economy.From our analysis,we see optimal advantage for Australia in a combination of two scenarios:first Deepdecarbonisation,which then morphs into Australia
237、becoming aClean energy superpower.These two scenarios bring together the economic and climatebenefits captured through embracing the energy transition and Australias natural advantage to become a renewable powerhouse.This combination of future scenarios holds the most promise for Australians,in term
238、s of decarbonisation,job creation and affordable energy prices.ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixOur visionWhich scenarios provide clear long-term benefits for Australians?Our VisionEnergy Vision|36In
239、 this scenario,Australia achieves net zero emission and a 100%renewable power system by 2035,internal combustion engine vehicles arecompletely phased out by 2050,replaced primarily by electric vehicles,and hydrogen is used for heavy transport,industry and peaking electricity generation.Greenhouse ga
240、s emissions breakdownStationary energy excluding electricity20%Electricity34%Fugitive emissions10%Transport18%Agriculture15%Industrial processes and product use6%Waste3%Convert to renewable generation sourcesElectrification,fuel switching&energy efficiencyProcess improvement,new technologies and car
241、bon capture&storageFigure 23:The breakdown of Australias greenhouse gas emissions al and the likely route to decarbonise each sectorFigure 22:The four pillars of decarbonisation akThe four pillars of decarbonisationEnergy waste reduction,including through energy productivity and a shift away from en
242、ergy-intensive products and servicesElectrification and a shift away from fossil fuels to zero or near-zero emissions alternatives100%renewable electricityNon-energy emissions reductions and offsetting of residual emissionsClimateWorks Australia has charted the path to decarbonisation,noting four es
243、sential pillars necessary to achieve net zero emissions at the lowest cost.ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixDeep decarbonisationOur visionOur Vision37Energy Vision|Pillar one:energy waste reduction01
244、020304050607080 2020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAnnual avoided electricity consumption(TWh)All levers are pulled to improve the energy efficiency of industry and buildings in Deep de
245、carbonisation,saving almost 80TWh annually from the NEM by 2050Current trends,our business as usual trajectory,is based on the autonomous rate of improvements in technological efficiency and historical improvement rates in our building codesFigure 24:Projections of avoided electricity consumption fr
246、om energy efficiency in industry and buildings in the NEMStrong policies and incentives to drive the uptake of efficiency measures could double the amount of energy we can save,as shown in Deep decarbonisation in Figure 24.ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisat
247、ion,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixDeep decarbonisationOur visionOur VisionEnergy Vision|38Pillar two:100%renewable electricityElectricity generation is Australias highest emitting sector,accounting for 33%of total emissions am.Rapidly switching to renewable energy enables the
248、decarbonisation of electricity generation and supports the decarbonisation of other sectors of the economy through electrification.Under our business as usual Current trends trajectory,the NEMs electricity sector is projected to reduce its emissions 93%by 2050.To facilitate the Deep decarbonisation
249、of our economy,we hit 100%renewable energy by 2035,as shown in Figure 25.Figure 25:Australias emissions projections and breakdown into the NEM and rest of the economy 1 1.Note:results exclude land-based sequestration offsets,which are necessary to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 in Clean energy s
250、uperpower and Prosumer power and net zero emissions by 2035 in Deep decarbonisation and then net negative emissions beyond.00500600 NEM emissionsRemainder of the economy(energy)Remainder of the economy(non-energy)NEM emissionsNEM emissions20202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020
251、45205020202025203020352040204520500050060000500600Current trendsDeep decarbonisationClean energy superpowerRemainder of the economy(non-energy)Remainder of the economy(non-energy)Remainder of theeconomy(energy)NEM emissionsNEM emissionsRemainder of the economy(energy)Australias
252、 emissions(Mt CO2-e)Australias emissions(Mt CO2-e)Australias emissions(Mt CO2-e)Emissions from the NEMs electricity sector are projected to fall by 93%to 2050 in Currenttrends,while emissions from the rest of Australias economy only falls by 7%over the same periodIt takes less than 15 years to elimi
253、nate emissions from the NEMs electricity sector(by 2035)and takes almost 30 years(to 2050)to reduce 87%of emissions from the rest of the economy in Deep decarbonisationUnder a 2C trajectory in Clean energy superpower,by 2050,half of all of Australias emissions reductions are achieved by the NEMs ele
254、ctricity sector“A decarbonised power sector,dominated by renewable sources,is at the core of the transition to a sustainable energy future”IRENA,2018,Global Energy Transformation:A roadmap to 2050“To achieve net zero emissions globally by 2050,unabated natural gas-fired generation peaks by 2030 and
255、is 90%lower by 2040”International Energy Agency,2021,Net Zero by 2050ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixDeep decarbonisationOur visionOur VisionEnergy Vision|39Pillar three:electrification and fuel swi
256、tchingSpreading the use of electricity into more parts of the economy is the single largest contributor to reaching netzero emissionsan.Electrification offers the cheapest route to decarbonise sectors such as light-duty transport(replacing liquid fuels),cooking,space and water heating(replacing gas)
257、and many industrial and manufacturing processes(replacing gas,oil and coal)ao.Weaning the heavy transport sector off oil will be much harder.Yet to achieve a Deep decarbonisation of the economy,oil must be phased out and switched with other fuel sources,such as bioenergy or hydrogen.These sources ar
258、e projected to play a key role in replacing fuels that are challenging to electrify,such as for heavy vehicles,aviation and shipping.Figure 26:Projections of increased electricity consumption in the NEM from electrification 11.Figure 26(left)represents the electrification of existing Australian indu
259、stries.It does not include the additional growth in green steel and aluminium production envisaged in Clean energy superpower.020406080100 2020202520302035204020452050020406080100 2020202520302035204020452050Electrification(industry&buildings)Electrification(road transport)Current trendsDeep decarbo
260、nisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAdditional electricity consumption(TWh)Additional electricity consumption(TWh)Approximately 75%of the increase in energy consumption due to electrification in industry and buildings comes from industry,20
261、%from residential buildings and 5%from commercial buildings in Deep decarbonisationBy 2050,all road transport is electrified in Deepdecarbonisation(23 million electric vehicles),apart from an assumed 50%of articulated trucks being run on hydrogen fuelcells The growth in electricity consumption from
262、the transport sector is larger than the decline in electricity consumption due to energy efficiency in all scenarios“Spreading the use of electricity into more parts of the economy is the single largest contributor to reaching net-zeroemissions”International Energy Agency,2020,Energy Technology Pers
263、pectivesForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixDeep decarbonisation“By 2030,60%of new car sales should be electric,with no internal combustion cars being sold after 2035”International Energy Agency,2021,Ne
264、t Zero by 2050Our visionOur Vision40Energy Vision|Pillar four:non-energy emissions reductions and land-based carbon offsets Non-energy emissions reductions will include emissions frommining fossil fuels,manufacturing heavy metals and materials,and agriculture ap.Carbon offsetting is a temporary solu
265、tion on a pathway to zero emissions aq.Land-based sequestration is required to offset hard-to-abate sectors that lack established or cost effective low emissions technology alternatives.Our modelling suggests that ambitious amounts of land-based sequestration will be required to successfully reach n
266、et zero emissions by 2035 and net negative beyond in Deepdecarbonisation and net zero emissions by 2050 in Prosumer power and Cleanenergysuperpower.Figure 27:Total Australian emissions and requirements for land-based sequestration offsetsTo keep within Deep decarbonisations 1.5Cemissions budget,5,56
267、2MT CO2-e of land-based sequestration are required by 2050Due to significantly fewer emissions reductions achieved across the economy,keeping within Clean energy superpowers 2C emissions budget requires 4,250MT CO2-e of land-based sequestration by 2050 Deep decarbonisation-400-300-3004
268、00500600 Australias total emissionsLand-based sequestration ofsetsNet emissionsClean energy superpower-400-300-300400500600 20202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020452050Australias total emissionsLand-based sequestration ofsetsNet emissionsAustralias emissions(Mt CO2-e)Austra
269、lias emissions(Mt CO2-e)ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixDeep decarbonisationOur visionLand-based sequestration is required to offset hard-to-abate sectors that lack established or cost effective low
270、 emissions technology alternativesOur Vision“Use of clean hydrogen can help address the toughest third of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,but only if net-zero emission goals and policies are set”BloombergNEF,2020,Hydrogen Economy Outlook key messages41Energy Vision|“Converting one quarter of
271、 Australian iron oxide and half of aluminium oxide exports to metal would add more value and jobs than current coal and gas combined”Ross Garnaut,2019,Australia could fall apart under climate change.But theres a way to avoid it,The ConversationForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy
272、scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixClean energy superpowerThis is a future where we harness Australias abundant renewable energy resources,large landmass,significant mineral ores and access to Asian markets to revitalise our industries,grow our economy and
273、create new jobs.Hydrogen offers an exciting opportunity to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors of the global economy,such as heavy transport,as a fuel and feedstock for industrial processes,such as steel making,and for electricity peaking generation.BloombergNEF suggests that renewable hydrogen will b
274、e cheapest to produce in countries with the lowest-cost electricity,such as India,Brazil,Australia and Scandinavia ar.Australias hydrogen exports could supply countries that dont have enough suitable land or renewable resources to meet their own domestic hydrogen needs.Australia is the worlds larges
275、t producer and exporter of iron ore,accounting for 67%of global exports.Yet only 1%of Australias iron ore goes to domestic steelmaking,producing only 0.3%of the worlds steel as.In a zero-carbon world,Ross Garnaut suggests there will be no economic sense in any aluminium or iron smelting in Japan or
276、Korea,not much in Indonesia,and enough to cover only a modest part of domestic demand in China and India at.Noting the high cost of hydrogen transport and Australias abundant renewable energy and iron ore resources,the domestic production of zero emissions green steel could become globally competiti
277、ve,enabling us to grow our export revenues,create local jobs and help reduce global emissions.Our visionOur VisionEnergy Vision|42ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixBroadly in line with the Federal Gov
278、ernments National Hydrogen Strategy high scenario,our analysis assumes that in Cleanenergy superpower,1.1MT of hydrogen is produced annually in Australia by 2030 and 19.2MT by 2050.Of that total,our analysis assumes 11.7MT of hydrogen is exported,4.3MT is used domestically to produce and export gree
279、n steel and the remaining 3.2MT is used domestically for heavy transport,electricity generation and other industrial processes,as shown in Figure 28.Our modelling optimises for the least cost hydrogen production pathway.Results for Clean energy superpower suggest that,as the cost of producing hydrog
280、en from electrolysis falls,zero emission electricity becomes the dominant energy source for hydrogen production,with green hydrogen representing 94%of total hydrogen production by 2050(18MT),as shown in Figure 29.Figure 28:Hydrogen production assumptions,Australia-wideFigure 29:Hydrogen production i
281、n Australia,split by production pathway0.00.51.01.52.02020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050051015202020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Clean energy superpowerDeep decarbonisationTransportBuildingsOther industrial usesHydrogen-based steelmakingHydrogen exportsElectricity
282、generation05101520Australian hydrogen productionClean energy superpowerDeep decarbonisationAnnual hydrogen production(MT)Annual hydrogen production(MT)Annual hydrogen production(MT)As the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis falls,zero emission electricity becomes the dominant energy source
283、for hydrogen production,with green hydrogen representing 94%of total hydrogen production by 2050 Hydrogen and green steel05101520 2020202520302035204020452050Electricity-Polymer electrolyte membrane(PEM)electrolysisElectricity-alkaline electrolysisGas-Steam methane reforming with carbon capture and
284、storageGas-Steam methane reformingAnnual hydrogen production(Mt/year)Clean energy superpowerClean energy superpowerOur visionOur Vision43Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixHydrogen and gr
285、een steelOur analysis optimises for the least cost location and cost of hydrogen production(Australia-wide).Projections suggest that the levelised cost of green hydrogen in Clean energy superpower will fall below$2/kg in the early 2030s,reaching$1/kg by 2050 at major hydrogen producing locations on
286、the south and east coast of Australia.Hydrogen production costs include capital and operating expenditures,but exclude hydrogen transportation and hydrogen storage costs.Clean energy superpower assumes that,by 2050,Australia retains 18%of its iron ore output for conversion to steel via a hydrogen Di
287、rect Reduction,electric arc furnace and hot rolling production route to produce 100MT per year of steel au.Our analysis optimises for the least cost location and cost of green steel production(Australia-wide),constrained by port capacities and the availability of a skilled workforce.Production costs
288、 include construction and operation costs,including the domestic transport of iron ore and electricity and green hydrogen inputs.Optimised for both hydrogen and green steel production,results indicate that QLD dominates in the 2030s,followed by NSW and WA in the 2040s,as shown in Figure 30.Exploring
289、 these results:QLD is dominant due to the quantum of low-cost renewable energy resources,the large skilled workforce and available portcapacity NSWs hydrogen and green steel production grows in the 2040s,particularly in the Hunter Valley,as the demand for hydrogen and green steel increases,making us
290、e of the large workforce available WA,while home to the majority of Australias iron ore resources,is projected to have a smaller share of hydrogen and green steel production by 2050,primarily due to higher labour and construction costs and a smaller available workforce.These higher costs offset the
291、cost of transporting iron ore to the eastcoast of Australia.Producing 19.2MT/year of green hydrogen and 100MT/year of green steel would require more than 1,200TWh of electricity Australia-wide by 2050.Our analysis assumes this quantity of hydrogen production is grid connected,with electricity brough
292、t in from renewable energy zones via electricity transmission to industrial hubs located at major ports.This assumption ensures we can stress test the implications of a large hydrogen industry on the NEM.In practise,the supply chain configuration will vary depending on the economics of specific proj
293、ects,with likely options being grid-connected and located near end users(with electricity tranported from renewable energy zones via transmission)and off-grid or edge-of-grid,where hydrogen is produced near renewable energy zones and is transported via dedicated pipelines or trucks to end users.Figu
294、re 30:Electricity consumption for hydrogen and green steel production across Australia in Clean energy superpower02004006008001,0001,200 2020202520302035204020452050NEMNSWQLDVICSATASNTWAAnnual electricity consumption for hydrogenand green steel production(TWh)The levelised cost of green hydrogen in
295、Clean energy superpower is projected to fall below$2/kg in the early 2030s,reaching$1/kg by 2050 at major hydrogen producing locations on the south and east coast of Australia.Our visionClean energy superpowerOur Vision44Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenarios
296、Decarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsPower system implicationsAppendixEfforts to support global decarbonisation could strengthen Australias economic growth,boost exports and build local jobsSupporting global decarbonisation Additional jobs and export revenue beyond the electricity sector Actual job c
297、reation in a Clean energy superpower future would be signficantly greater than our modelling shows because the analysis only considers jobs in the electricity sector.Other analysis suggests significant GDP and job growth in downstream industries:Deloittes analysis for the National Hydrogen Strategy
298、suggests 19,600 additional jobs could be created and an extra$26 billion could be added to Australias GDP by 2050(under a similar hydrogen growth trajectory to Cleanenergy superpower)ay.The Grattan Institute found that the export of green steel(equivalent to the export quantity in Clean energy super
299、power)could create 25,000 ongoing jobs and an annual export value of$65 billion by 2050 az.This analysis identified Central Queensland and the Hunter Valley in NSW as the lowest cost locations for the production of green steel in Australia.The Energy Transition Hubs analysis of Australias opportunit
300、y to grow our zero emissions aluminium production found that GDP could be increased by$15 billion and 15,000 ongoing jobs could be created(equivalent to the aluminium sector growth assumed in Cleanenergysuperpower)ba.Beyond Zero Emissions and ACIL Allen found that establishing Renewable Energy Indus
301、trial Precincts in Gladstone and the Hunter Valley could support 45,000 newongoing jobs and$13 billion in annual revenue bb.Additional export opportunities Clean energy superpower assumes a significant growth in domestic aluminium production(to10MT/year of aluminium),requiring eight additional large
302、 aluminium smelters in the NEM by2050 av.In addition,the decarbonisation of the global economy will create a surge in demand for minerals.Australia is uniquely placed to take advantage of this opportunity.By 2040,demand for lithium could grow 42 times,25 times for graphite,21 times for cobalt,19 tim
303、es for nickel and 7 times for rare earth metals aw.Australia possess some of the worlds largest recoverable resources of lithium(currently we are the worlds largest producer),nickel,titanium and cobalt,and has the worlds sixth largest rare-earth resource base ax.The export of electricity via underse
304、a cables to our South East Asian neighbours is also envisaged in the narrative of Clean energy superpower,but not modelled as these links are unlikely tointeract with the NEM.Our visionClean energy superpower“Australia has the potential to grow a new green export mix worth$333 billion per annum,almo
305、st triple the value of existing fossil fuel exports”Beyond Zero Emissions,2021,Export Powerhouse:Australias$333 billion opportunityOur VisionEnergy Vision|45ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionAppendixPower system implication
306、sPower system implicationsUnder all future scenarios,renewable energy firmed with pumped hydro and battery storage supplies the majority of electricity required.Figure 31 presents the least cost evolution of the NEMs generation mix under each scenario.Generation capacities can be explored in Appendi
307、x 1.3.Figure 31:Electricity generation projections for the NEMCurrent trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralClean energy superpowerBlack coalBrown coalGas(CCGT)Peaking gas+liquidsHydroWindSolar Rooftop solarHydrogen peakerDispatchable storage(discharge)Behind-the-m
308、eter storage(discharge)-004005006002020202520302035204020452050202020252030203520402045205020202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020300400300400500600-30040050060000500005006007009008001,0001,2030203
309、5204020452050Electricity generation(TWh)Electricity generation(TWh)Electricity generation(TWh)Electricity generation(TWh)Electricity generation(TWh)Electricity generation(TWh)Dispatchable storage(charge)-20302035204020452050States go it alone600Energy Vision|46ForewordExecutive summaryDri
310、vers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionAppendix20%30%40%50%60%70%2020202520302035204020452050Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsumer powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerAnnual share of wind generation versustot
311、al variable renewable energy generation(%)A changing generation mixPower system implicationsThe NEMs generation mix reflects the growing penetration of variable renewable energy(VRE)and a growth in dispatchable storage,as described in Table 1.1.Note:wind generation refers to onshore wind.Offshore wi
312、nd was not modelled,though the potential for offshore wind along the coast of Australia is recognised(for example a notional 40GW resource limit is included within AEMOs 2021 Inputs,Assumptions and Scenarios Report).Our modelling determines the optimal split of wind and solar capacity to achieve the
313、 lowest system cost,shown in Figure 32.Figure 32:Split of wind generation to total variable renewable energy generation in the NEM,including rooftop solarWind power supports the lowest cost replacement of baseload coal generation in DeepdecarbonisationSolar drives the lowest cost hydrogen production
314、 in Clean energy superpower Higher rooftop solar penetration in Prosumer power reduces the share of wind generation NEM20302050VRE capacity(GW)VRE share of total generation(Annual,%)Dispatchable storage capacity(GW)VRE capacity(GW)VRE share of total generation(Annual,%)Dispatchable storage capacity(
315、GW)Current trends5155%510888%18Deep decarbonisation7685%1215996%33Prosumer power5751%1315590%45De-industrialisation death spiral3242%36371%10States go it alone4649%711587%23Clean energy superpower6453%841798%38Table 1:VRE capacity and generation share,including largescale wind 1,solar PV and rooftop
316、 solar(therefore excludes hydro andbiomass).Dispatchable storage capacity includes large scale battery storage,pumped hydro,Virtual Power Plant batteries and electric vehicles batteries with Vehicle-to-Grid technology.159GW of variable renewable energy capacity and 33GW of dispatchable storage is re
317、quired across the NEM by 2050 in DeepdecarbonisationPower system implicationsThe spread of storage requirements shown in Figure 33 vary between scenarios because:Each scenario has very different electricity requirements,and higher levels of electricity consumption typically require more storage capa
318、city to manage higher generation volumes(with the exception of Clean energy superpower)The flexibility of hydrogen electrolysers in Clean energy superpower means that hydrogen production can closely track renewable production,turning down or off where necessary,reducing storage requirements for the
319、NEM as a whole Generally,scenarios with higher proportions of solar power require more storage to shift power from day to night(such as in Prosumer power).Prosumer power has higher dispatchable storage because of the availability of consumer storage within Virtual Power Plants and from electric vehi
320、cles with Vehicle-to-Grid technology,providing low-cost dispatchability to the energysystem.47Energy Vision|ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionAppendixExponential demand for storagePower system implicationsAs market value sh
321、ifts from bulk generation to flexibility and dispatchability,firming technologies will be critical to enable a high penetration of variable renewable energy into the electricity system.The requirement for storage(and storage duration)increases non-linearly with increasing annual renewable energy sha
322、re,especially above 90%,roughly equivalent to an 85%variable renewable energy share.Figure 33:Dispatchable storage capacity against the renewable energy generation share in the NEMAnnual renewable energy generation share(%)01020304050 30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Current trendsDeep decarbonisationProsum
323、er powerDe-industrialisation death spiralStates go it aloneClean energy superpowerDispatchable storage capacity(GW)The requirement for storage(and storage duration)increases non-linearly with increasing annual renewable energy sharePower system implicationsEnergy Vision|48ForewordExecutive summaryDr
324、ivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionAppendixVehicle-to-Grid technology has the potential to dramatically alter the energy storage landscape and significantly benefit the energysystem.Analysis by BloombergNEF for Germany suggests that,by 2040,if all the
325、 countrys electric vehicles were equipped with Vehicle-to-Grid capabilities and were all(theoretically)available to the grid,they could provide three times more power than the systems peak electricity demand bc.The differences in storage technologies vary between scenarios,primarily influenced by re
326、quired storage depths,asshown in Figure 34.Varying storage depthsPower system implicationsFigure 34:Share of storage capacity in the NEM in 2050 by type of storageIn Deep decarbonisation,behind-the-meter batteries coordinated into Virtual Power Plants crowd out gridbatteries In Prosumer power,electr
327、ic vehicles with Vehicle-to-Grid technology crowd out pumped hydro and Virtual Power Plant batteries crowd out grid batteries Scenarios like De-industrialisation death spiral with more gas or coalwill require more shallow storage(grid batteries or Virtual Power Plant batteries)States go it alone has
328、 a lower pumped hydro share(than Currenttrends)because the scenarios restriction on new interstate transmission means low-cost Tasmanian pumped hydro cannot be shared with VictoriaScenarios more heavily weighted towards solar will require longer duration pumped hydro storage,such as in Clean energy
329、superpower0%20%40%60%80%100%CurrenttrendsDeepdecarbonisationProsumerpowerDe-industrialisationdeath spiralStates goit aloneClean energysuperpowerPumped hydroGrid batteriesVirtual Power Plant batteriesVehicle-to-Grid batteriesShare of storage capacity(%)Power system implicationsSpotlightEnergy Vision|
330、49ForewordExecutive summaryDrivers of changeFuture energy scenariosDecarbonisation,jobs&costsKey trendsOur VisionAppendixDemand side flexibilityPower system implicationsHydrogen electrolysers are extremely flexible.They can turn down,off or even up near instantaneously(including up to 200%of capacit
331、y for 10-30 minutes),enabling them to closely track renewable production,and to provide demand response and grid balancingservices bd.If hydrogen electrolysers are grid connected,this flexibility translates into lower storage requirements for the energy system as a whole and lower costs for all cons
332、umers.Normalised for annual electricity consumption,in 2050 Cleanenergy superpower requires almost three times less storage capacity than Deep decarbonisation.Hydrogen is not the only industry able to operate flexibly.Metal refineries and other large users are already varying their demand in respons
333、e to the price of electricity.Germanys largest producer of aluminium,Trimet,is trialling techniques to make its facility more demand responsive,enabling one production line to turn up or down by 25%for several hoursbe.And its not just industry either individual households are increasingly varying their demand in response to signals from energy market participants.As the NEM transforms to a two-way