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1、The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasPhoto by Rachael Rinchiuso Kearney,Chicago1 Including the United KingdomSources:Rystad Energy,European Commission,Fitch Ratings;Kearney analysisFigure 1The EU imported more that 40%of its gas from Russia in 2021 and is aiming to repl
2、ace two-thirds of it in 2022European gas demand vs.supply sources 20211(bcm per year)REPowerEU proposal to reduce dependenceon Russian gas by the end of 2022(bcm per year)DemandOwnproductionNetimportsNetimportsPipelineNetimportsLNG46281381154(40%)140(37%)72(19%)15(4%)Share of RussiaVolume ofRussian
3、gas tobe replacedNon-RussianLNGNon-Russianpipeline gasEnergy savingsRenewables frontloading101.550.010.014.022.5Biomethaneproduction3.5Heat pumprollout1.5Concerning gas supplies,there are two short-term challenges to using additional LNG supplies(50 bcm)and alternative pipeline gas(10 bcm):Do oil-an
4、d-gas-rich countries have the capacity to supply more gas?Is the infrastructure in place for such a massive shift?Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions,can the region find a substitute for Russian gas?Less than 20 percent of Europes consumption of natural gas is met by its own production.In fact,40 per
5、cent of imports140 billion cubic meters per year(bcm/y)comes from Russia,mostly through pipelines and to a lesser extent by 15 bcm/y of liquefied natural gas(LNG)(see figure 1).1Amid todays geopolitical tensions,European imports of Russian gas are decreasing,whether it be because of an EU decision o
6、r a Russian measure.Either way,the need to consider short-term alternative sources of gas raises serious challenges when it comes to feasibility and costs.In early March 2022,the European Commission outlined a pathway to reduce Europes dependency on Russian gas.By the end of the year,the goal is to
7、decrease EU demand of Russian gas by two-thirdsthat is,100 bcm/y.2More than 40%of Europes gas imports come from Russia.1The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasMidstream:focus on infrastructureConsidering that the upstream production bottleneck can be addressed at best at
8、50 percent of EUs assessed needs(24 bcm),the next obstacle is the midstream and supporting infrastructure.Estimates indicate that non-Russian pipelines could supply 7 bcm of gas in the short term.7 Unfortunately,spare pipeline capacities do not exactly match short-term production volumes.For example
9、,Algeria has less additional capacity for gas production than available pipeline capacity(10 bcm/y).Similarly,although Norway has spare pipeline capacity of almost 13 bcm/y,the country could only provide up to 1.4 bcm/y production-wise.As for upstream constraints,midstream infrastruc-tures take year
10、s to be operational and require billions of dollars in investments.8For LNG,infrastructure is also at stake.European LNG import facilities are located mainly in West Europe,with Iberia,France,the UK,and Belgium accounting for more than 60 percent of total capacities.The good news is that their namep
11、late capacity is far from being fully utilized.In 2021,the LNG terminal utilization rate in Spain and France did not exceed 36 percent and 50 percent respectively.Hence,these underuti-lized import facilities could provide the much-needed storage and regasification capacitiesup to 125 bcm/y based on
12、2021(see figure 3 on page 3).9Unfortunately,the next bottleneck is the connections between countries.For example,Spain had 35 bcm of LNG import spare capacity in 2021,but the pipeline between Spain and Europe is limited to 7.5 bcm/y.10 Hence,there is a rush to secure floating storage and regasificat
13、ion units(FRSUs),which can help gain time before new LNG terminals are operational in critical demand areas such as Germany and the Netherlands.In 2022,Germany will secure 5 bcm/y and up to 10 to 14 bcm by 2023 through FRSUs.The same is true for the Netherlands,with 8 bcm of additional LNG import ca
14、pacity added by the end of 2022.Out of the 48 FRSUs operating globally,13 are being chartered for Europe.11Upstream:focus on productionProduction-wise,this crisis is taking place in the middle of a worldwide industrial recovery,with a high level of gas demand triggered by Asia and large fields seein
15、g record-high production.Because ongoing new developments will take years to supply the markets,Europe will have limited availability of additional gas(see figure 2 on page 3).The United States has committed to supplying 15 bcm of additional LNG to Europe by the end of 2022(in addition to 22 bcm in
16、2021).However,US LNG exports maxed out in February 2022 at 13.3 billion cubic feet per day(bcf/d);production and terminals are contracted for months and even years.In addition,the countrys many producers are not bound to government commitments.Planning for the longer term,European countries are cont
17、racting future LNG imports from the United States,which wont be available before 2025.In Qatar,most export capacity is under long-term contracts to Asian customers(75 bcm).3 At best,analysts anticipate an additional 3 to 4 bcm available to Europe by the end of 2022,in addition to 23 bcm in 2021.Much
18、 more gas will be available with the development of Qatars North Field,boosting LNG production from 77 million metric tons per year of LNG to 126 million metric tons.But this will not happen before 20252030.Norway has confirmed its capacity to supply 1.4 bcm of additional gas by producing more over
19、the summer.4 Azerbaijan has limited spare capacity in terms of production.However,the swap agreement in place for 2 bcm/y of gas between Turkmenistan(producer)to Iran(receives and resends equivalent)and Azerbaijan(receiver)could be increased to 6 bcm,leaving 4 bcm of gas available to South Europe.Ho
20、wever,there is an additional bottleneck with the Trans Adriatic Pipeline from Turkey to the European Union,leaving 3 bcm of additional supply.5 Algeria has limited capacity to produce more by the end of 2022,up to 2.5 bcm in the best-case scenario.6 Despite a potential 20,000 bcm of shale gas reserv
21、es,the countrys unattractive domestic ecosystem and lack of reform have led to years of underinvestment in exploration and production.Europe is facing insufficient gas supply alternatives in the short term.Replacing Russian gas means adding one-third of global LNG to the market,and this will not be
22、possible for years.The solutions will be to resell and reroute LNG cargoes from Asia to Europe by offering competitive netbacks or offering Asian coal instead of gas.2The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasSources:Kearney analysis,Oxford Institutefor Energy Studies,Reuter
23、s,EquinorPossible alternative gas supply by end 2022 production sources(bcm/year)Figure 2The world cannot produce sufficient gas for Europe in the short termNon-RussianLNG50.015.03.51.43.024.6USQatarNorwayAzerbaijan(swap Turkmenistan)AlgeriaUnavailable at short termAdding one third of global LNG to
24、the markets will not be possible in the short termSolution Resell and reroute LNG cargoes from Asia to Europe,by offering competitive netbacks and/or offering coal to Asia instead of gasNorway has confirmed its capacity to increase production in summer seasonMost of Qatar export capacity is long-ter
25、m contractedAzerbaijanswap agreement with TurkmenistanAlgeria has limited capacity to produce more by end of 2022US administration commitment.But US already produces at peak level2.5Source:Kearney analysisFigure 3Beyond gas production bottleneck,midstream infrastructures worsen constraintsBottleneck
26、s in midstream gas flow to EuropeLNG terminalworldwideLNG vesselLNG terminalin EuropeLNG truckNatural gasconsumersIntra-Europetransmission networkCross-borderpipe to EuropeGas productionworldwide1US LNG exports are maxed out;there is a limited LNG supply that can be added2LNG import terminals only i
27、n Western Europe3Insufficient regasification capacities at LNG terminals and consumption sites4Spare pipeline capacities do not match with short-term production volumes(only 6,8 bcm,while pipe capacity exceeds 28 bcm)5e.g.,Spain had 35 bcm of LNG import spare capacity in 2021.But the pipeline betwee
28、n Spain and Europe is limited to 7,5 bcm per year123Regasification453The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasSources:Gazprom financial reports;European Commission quarterly report;Kearney analysisFigure 4Gas prices are out of controlComparison of Russian pipeline gas price
29、s with EU LNG$US/tcmGas prices in Europe,Asia,and USUS/mBTUGazprom PipeEuropean gas price(TTF)Asian spot price for LNGUS gas price(Henry Hub)LNG Europe4Q 20202Q 20211Q 20213Q 2021April2021April202250700341%22228554330821960Likewise,the environmental implications need to be cons
30、idered.An LNG cargo emits about 50 percent more greenhouse gases than its equivalent volume by pipeline for the transport operations.At the scale of 50 bcm,this would represent 5.8 million tons of additional CO2 emissions per yearthe equivalent of adding 1.3 million cars in Europe every yearand woul
31、d obviously conflict with EUs Green Deal.The economic and environmental impact of switching from Russian gas to LNG and other pipelines alternativesBeyond industrial constraints,the cost of LNG cargoes is higher than pipeline gas(see figure 4).12 Because of the need for gas for LNG carriers,the rega
32、sification process,and the need for transporta-tion to the user site,the cost can be up to 40 percent higher than that of piped gas.The average Gazprom price from 4Q 2020 to 3Q 2021 for Europe was$219 versus$308 for LNG import for Europe.If 50 bcm were to be supplied to Europe in todays market condi
33、tions,the additional cost of gas would be inflated by$4.5 billion a year based on the Q4 2020Q3 2021 average price and$11 billion a year based on the Q3 2021 average price.“Higher for longer”may be the energy bill situation for large European industrial gas consumers.At the opposite end of the spect
34、rum,Asian customers may benefit from lower gas prices with more imports from Russia.LNG will come at a higher price than pipeline gas,economically and environmentally.4The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasGiven the gas supply situation and underlying complexities to fin
35、d alternative sources of gas,stakeholders will need to address the following questions:How will gas suppliers find alternatives to gas volumes in Europe?What changes in the business models and commercial constructs will be required?Will the gas infrastructure developers be able to meet the new devel
36、opment needs while managing capital and investment risks in the short to medium term?How will they address supply tensions in terms of engineering,procurement,and resources to meet demand?How will large gas consumers optimize energy efficiency or switch to alternative sources of energy?How will they
37、 face a larger energy budget?How can industrial gas users in the EU keep their businesses competitive,and which measures need to be undertaken across the supply chain,production,and capex?How can EU energy policies ensure the most efficient allocation of resources to the new energy infrastructure,co
38、mpetitiveness of EU businesses,and achievement of EU emissions targets?When will the long-awaited European energy supply policy finally happen?What alternative energy sources are best to invest in now:wind,solar,hydrogen,coal,or nuclear?Endnotes1 https:/ https:/ S&P Global:https:/ https:/ https:/eur
39、asianet.org/southeast-europe-looks-to-azerbaijan-to-replace-russian-gas6 https:/ https:/ For example,the short Trans Adriatic Pipeline of 880 km(TurkeyGreece border to Italian Adriatic coast)represented an investment of$6 billion and five years of studies and construction.9 https:/ https:/ https:/ W
40、ood Mackenzie:https:/ future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasOlivier SoupaPartner,Paris Aritra JanaPrincipal,London Jrme SevinPartner,Paris Deniss PetrovitsPrincipal,Moscow Authors6The future of the European energy system:a focus on alternative gasFor more information,permiss
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