《安盛(AXA):2023年安盛前瞻报告(英文版)(58页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《安盛(AXA):2023年安盛前瞻报告(英文版)(58页).pdf(58页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、in partnership withRISK:RISK:A MOSAIC OF A MOSAIC OF PERCEPTIONSPERCEPTIONSForesight Report 2023AXA X USBEK&RICA3Exploring the perception ofriskOur modern world is characterized by turbulence:a seemingly unending succession of crises coupled with rising interdependence.Risks have become real events
2、that unfold across the world rather than possibilities,and their impacts are increasingly multi-dimensional.Geopolitical,economic,climate change,and health challenges are all interconnected,affecting peoples perceptions of vulnerability and their faith in a better future.Traditionally,risk has been
3、understood to be objective,focusing in particular on big,“universal”risks that have the potential to broadly impact the planet and our lives.Yet the changing nature of the risks around us raises questions about how they are perceived.In this age of“permacrisis,”how do people consider risks in differ
4、ent countries?Is the human experience of risk the same for everyone?Does perception vary by country or the nature of the risks themselves?What helps to build trust and hope for a better future?And what trends and scenarios will tomorrow bring?This is the purpose of the 2023 edition of AXAs Foresight
5、 Report:to shed light on the sociological,anthropological,and cultural dimensions of risk.The publication is based on an international survey of 19,000 individuals from the general public in 15 countries conducted as part of AXAs Future Risk Report.It explores how they perceive and experience risks
6、in their everyday lives.This analysis provides insight into how perceptions differ across social groups,as well as based on demographic and geographic characteristics.With experts from the AXA-ENS Research Chair in the Geopolitics of Risk,we highlight a constructivist vision of riskwherein the perce
7、ption of risk is socially constructed and subjectively oriented.With our editorial and foresight partner Usbek&Rica,a trend forecaster,we explore possible futures based on the roles of technology,communities,and trusted third parties(e.g.public and private organizations).Our relationship with risk i
8、s a complex loop,one that is constantly evolving over time and will continue to evolve as technology advances and our understanding of risk improves.Improving our knowledge of risk perception and evolution enhances our understanding of decision-making processes,as well as the types of protection tha
9、t need to be put in place.It also sheds light on the best design interventions and policies to meet the needs of current and future generations.ForewordMarie Bogataj Head of the AXA Research Fund and Group ForesightOlivier Desbiey Head of AXA Group ForesightRisk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Rep
10、ort 20234AXA X USBEK&RICAPrefaceConstructivism:A new approach to risk perceptionJ.Peter Burgess,AXA Chair in the Geopolitics of Risk,cole Normale SuprieureShrewd survey techniques and innovative analytical methods come together in the 2023 Foresight Report to produce a fresh and thoughtful look at t
11、he risk landscape as it stands today.The report is based on a comprehensive and fine-grained survey,which is analyzed following the core principles of“constructivist”risk theory.These twin resources permitted an analysis that digs deeper into the complex societal embedding of risk,the unique way it
12、is experienced by individuals and groups,and its implications for trust in people,institutions,and governments.The raw data provided by the comprehensive risks survey formed the basis for an analysis of transversal correlations across different sectors of society,diverse types of individual and coll
13、ective experiences,and various cultural,social,and political values.The originality of the analysis stems to a large degree from the constructivist methodology it applies.Rather than starting from the traditional view that risks are hard facts that are objectively and universally verifiable,the proj
14、ect worked from the assumption that both risk assessment and risk management involve individual and collective values.Such values vary from one segment of society to another,so the perception of the severity of a given risk or of potential loss in the face of the same danger can also vary strongly.F
15、ollowing this insight,the report presents a new understanding of the complexity of the global risk landscape.Furthermore,it provides pioneering insights on the role of societal trust in managing risk and explores potential futures based on the strength of trust in various institutions.Building on th
16、is insight,the report proposes far more nuanced and actionable mapping of the risks society faces.It also provides a compelling proof-of-concept for societally calibrated,and thus market-specific,risk assessments.AXA X USBEK&RICA5Back to the future.of riskConstructivism vs.positivism:A brief history
17、 of the notion of riskPopular beliefsSECT I ON 1 A MOSAIC OF PERCEPTIONSAre we all vulnerable?Is risk-taking the key to success?The age of riskThe gender of riskPersona:Lifestyle and risk perceptionInterview Are we becoming too risk-averse?SECT I ON 2 A WORLD OF ASYMMETRY:HOW RISK PERCEPTIONS VARY A
18、CROSS COUNTRIES AND CULTURESClimate change:A concern without bordersNeighbors Japan and China differ in their perception of geopolitical risksHow are Europeans coping with growing geopolitical tensions?A tale of two countries:Energy vulnerability in France and the U.K.In the U.S.,cyber threats are o
19、n the radarInterview Tension and geopolitical conflicts:Building a bridge over troubled waterSECT I ON 3 SEARCHING FOR TRUSTEmerging risks:Whos afraid of new technologies?Who(or what)will we trust to protect us?Three future scenariosTo fear or not to fear,that is the questionAcknowledgmentsMethodolo
20、gyp.6p.8 p.11p.12p.14p.16p.18p.20p.23p.25p.28p.30p.31 p.32p.34P.35P.37P.40P.42P.46P.50P.52P.52Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 20236AXA X USBEK&RICAData and countriesIn the 2022 edition,4 449 experts from 58 countries,and 18 999 individuals from the gene-ral population from 15 countries
21、(the United States,Australia,Belgium,China,France,Germany,Hong Kong,Italy,Japan,Mexico,Morocco,Nigeria,Spain,Switzerland,and the United Kingdom)participated in the survey.Back to the future.of riskAn overview of AXA Future Risks Report 20221-The constructivist approach contends that risk is socially
22、 constructed and depends on the experiences of all those involved,including the social dimensions of the experience,subjectively oriented.Read more in“Constructivism vs.positi-vism:A brief history of the notion of risk”on p.8.2-A positivist approach sees risk as a factual matter,often subject to log
23、ical deduction or even mathe-matical calculation to understand risks.Read more in“Constructivism vs.positivism:A brief history of the notion of risk”on p.8.For several years now,the AXA Future Risks Report has provided a holistic view as well as a ranking of worldwide risks that pose a threat to man
24、kind.The report adopts a“positivist approach1”of risk as its theoretical framework and relies mostly on data with experts.Using the same dataset but focused on the general publics responses,the 2023 Fore-sight Report aims to continue the conversation on risk perception with a complementary“construct
25、ivist approach2,”relying mainly on data from 19,000 people in 15 countries.It focuses on how individuals perceive risks and handle them in their daily lives,while also highlighting some key differences in these perceptions across demographics,understan-ding them through both individual characteristi
26、cs of respondents(i.e.age,gender)and their geographies.Together,these approaches convey a complete vision to understand risks,both in their factual aspect and impact as well as in the more subjective dimension of their perception.Before exploring the various aspects of this constructivist approach,t
27、his preamble summarizes the major lessons of the AXA Future Risks Report 2022.Consensus and divergenceClimate change Climate risk has become the top priority for both experts and the general public in all regions for the first time.On the one hand,this consensus reflects the escalating catas-trophic
28、 disruptions that climate change has caused in recent years to societies and economies,resulting in the reevaluation of potential risks.Extreme weather events have become unrelenting and affect more and more peoples everyday lives.On the other,this serves as a collective wake-up call for the future.
29、To combat climate change and miti-gate its future impact,immediate action must be taken.Concern over pandemics and infectious diseases With policies and initiatives implemented at global,national,and regional levels,there is broad agreement that the pandemic has become manageable and is no longer an
30、 emergency for most countries.Reflecting this,the risks of pandemics and infectious diseases have dropped from 3rd to 5th place over the past year for risk management pro-fessionals.The focus has shifted to more pressing issues such as climate change and geopolitical instability.However,among the pu
31、blic,concern remains high.In some countries and regions,health-care measures and policy restrictions are still tight,and worries about health issues related to Covid-19 persist.In other countries where the global pandemic has passed,its devasta-ting consequences(as well as the experience of lockdown
32、s,travel restrictions,and mask regulations)have left long-lasting under-lying anxiety and raised awareness of related health risks.As a result,apprehension about pandemics and infectious diseases conti-nues to sit near the top of the risk list,ranking second globally and taking the top spot in Afric
33、a,Asia Pacific,and the Middle East.AXA X USBEK&RICA7Differences between regions:Ranked by the general publicIn Asia,people remain more concerned by the pandemic than anywhere else.Geopolitical instability is more of a concern in Europe due to the war in Ukraine.Cyber security is particularly of conc
34、ern in America,as cyber attacks against U.S.com-panies and critical services are on the rise.Social tensions and movements also rank higher here than anywhere else,reflecting recent political turmoil both in North and South America.Africa is more concerned with chronic illnesses than any other regio
35、n.GeopoliticalinstabilityIn the context of the war in Ukraine,geopolitical tensions rose rapidly up the rankings:among experts they jumped from 4th to 2nd position,and among the general public from 9th to 3rd.ClimatechangeRanked first according to both the public and experts,and for the first time a
36、ccording to experts in every single region.Cyber-securityWhilst experts top concern is shutdown of essential services and critical infrastructures,the general public is first and foremost concerned about identity theft,both personal and corporate.Energy risksJumped since last year in the context of
37、the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russian oil and gas:from 17th to 4th for experts,16th to 5th for the general public.Pandemic and infectious diseasesDown from#1 in 2020 and#3 in 2021.The general public remains more concerned about the pandemic than experts:the public ranks it second,
38、whilst its ranked 5th for experts.#1#1#1#1as ranked by both experts and the general public:Top 5Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 20238AXA X USBEK&RICAConstructivism vs.positivism:A brief history of the notion of riskThe history of mankind is inextricably linked with threats to human bei
39、ngs.Every step in our evolution has been taken alongside loo-ming mortality.The world is full,after all,of objective dangers that we are prepared to confront to varying degrees.Unlike the notion of“danger,”which refers to recurring and objective threats,risk captures the idea of practices that aim t
40、o manage the dangers faced by a given individual,group,or society.Thus,the relationship between indi-viduals and groups on one side and different types of dangers on the other varies hugely depending on social,cultural,and political variables.Simply put,what is a danger to one person may not be a da
41、nger to another.It also shapes the history and development of this notion.The main paradigm shift in the story takes place through the discovery and implementation,in the mid-20th century,of the concept of risk management.Etymologically,the term“risk”seems to come from the Medieval Arabic word rizq,
42、meaning“bread”or“sustenance,”with a strong allu-sion to what is provided by God.This meaning links the word to the idea of the hand of fate in human affairs.Western Medieval languages(Latin,Medieval French,and Portuguese,as well as late Medieval Germanic languages)all reserved a term for the unpredi
43、ctable,often understood as dangerous.However,beyond etymology,a less distinctly named idea of risk as chance,both in games and in life,can be traced back as far as we have written records.The earliest evidence of this gaming instinct shows an evolution,linked with the rise of Christianity in Western
44、 Europe,to a more spiritualized notion of risk.The concept of divine judgment and the end of days had a strong influence on the outlook people had toward an uncertain future.Danger and the insecurity it generated became partially internalized,moralized,and spiritualized.The ordinary dangers of livin
45、g in the Middle Ages,due to natural phenomena like illness,fragile agriculture,and scarce natural resources,naturally led to this spi-ritualization.Reducing insecurity therefore meant improving ones relationship with the divine.The high Latin term securitas literally means“without concern,”“peace of
46、 mind,”or“peace of the soul.”Paralleling the spiritualization of danger in the late Middle Ages,the first occurrences of what might be called maritime insurance appear with the rise of merchant sailing fleets in Por-tugal and Spain,which used to designate an extra cost charged as compensation for fa
47、cing unknown dangers.A common and somewhat over-simplified way to understand the modernization of risk and risk analysis is to focus on two of its dimensions:on the one hand,the likelihood of any given threat becoming reality,and on the other,the actual damage it could cause.While the necessity of e
48、valuating the likeli-hood of a given event is as old as the notion of risk itself,its status as a science,using the mathematics of probability,arose during the late 17th and early 18th centuries.This mathematical discipline gradually evolved until,during the mid-20th century,it merged with mainframe
49、 computing and took on a new dimension and influence,particularly regarding the management of large trading portfolios,investment funds,and insurance policies.The rapid change in the notion of security,toward the end of the Cold War in the 1980s,was also significant.During the Cold War years,a bilat
50、eral,geopolitical concept of security prevailed.Following the fall of the AXA X USBEK&RICA9Berlin Wall and the discovery of a wide range of forms of insecurity in and among socie-ties themselves,rather than a single set of risks in the broader world,insecurity became increasingly understood as both
51、a symptom of modern society and a byproduct of its evo-lution.The rapid rise of instantaneous electronic communications,followed by social media,intensified the feeling that risks are at once individualized,interdependent,and ever-pre-sent,increasing peoples anxiety about moving toward a future that
52、 seems more and more uncertain.What we now characterize as risk is the convergence of these various streams into an era of uncertainty:the late-industrial produc-tion of risks,the conception of the future in our collective imagination,the mathematiza-tion of the unknown,high-speed communica-tion and
53、 social media,and the omnipresence of danger.Our relationship with risk is also a history of how we perceive it.How do ordinary people view risk?What role do cultural and socioe-conomic factors play?Why do people from different countries see the same risk in diffe-rent ways?This underlying assumptio
54、n that perceptions of risks are socially constructed and subjectively oriented can be traced back to the discussion between two major theore-tical views on risk,positivism and constructi-vism.They express two distinct approaches to evaluating how the world works and what it means to study it.They ea
55、ch emerged from a different historical and cultural period in the evolution of scientific theory.Positivismwas born in Europe during the first part of the 20th century,and more specifically,during the highly uns-table interwar period.This approach comprises a set of assumptions about what a true sci
56、entific state-ment is.When asked that question,a positivist answers that such a sta-tement must gather verifiable facts from the world.From the positivist point of view,the world is indeed made up of facts,and risk will there-fore be considered first and foremost as a fact.Constructivismappeared muc
57、h later,toward the end of the 20th century.This approach was initially a reaction against the positivist assumption that the world is simply a set of facts.Constructivism embodies the belief that traditional natural science falls short when it comes to describing social,cultural,and political realit
58、ies.For example,while the temperature outside can easily be described in factual terms,the same can hardly be said about the mood of an audience during a Beethoven concert.The constructi-vist approach therefore starts from the assumption that nothing about the world can be understood directly,as it
59、comes to us through the filter of our personal values,social rela-tionships,political realities,ethno-graphic context,and so forth.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202310AXA X USBEK&RICAFacts vs.experienceThese two approaches therefore consider risk from different perspec-tives.A positi
60、vist assumes that risk is a fact.Therefore,the only challenge for risk analysis is to figure out what the facts are and to make logical conclusions about their implications.To study the risk of a car accident means gathering all of the relevant data,for example size,weight,speed,and some information
61、 about the driver(years of driving experience,number of previous accidents,age group,etc.).One then makes a logical calculation about how likely an acci-dent is to occur,what damage would be done in terms of material costs,hospital bills,number of human lives lost,etc.A constructivist approach would
62、 start by asking how this accident would be experienced by those involved.The analysis would begin with an attempt to define who the people are,inclu-ding their personal backgrounds,families,jobs,and relationship to vehicles,cars,death,and injury.All of these elements would come into play when deter
63、mining what the risk of an accident is.Two complementary approachesUnlike positivism,which sees risk as a factual matter subject to logi-cal deduction and even mathema-tical calculation,the constructivist approach depends on the expe-riences of those involved,including all the social dimensions of t
64、hat experience.Constructive analysis is therefore subjectively oriented.It takes into account how we live,what matters to us,what we hope and fear,and so forth.As a result,the assumptions,methods,and worldviews adopted by the two approaches are highly different.A positivist risk analysis is a factua
65、l analysis.It focuses on the objective search and material unders-tanding of the potential risk event.A constructivist risk analysis is a social analysis.It seeks to understand the potential event in the context of the societal origins that inform the broad notion of risk as well as a particular haz
66、ard,variations in the perception of danger,and the often significant disparity in the social consequences a given event would trigger.AXA X USBEK&RICA11Popular beliefs3-Choosing“Yes,a lot”or“Yes,a little”to the ques-tion“Are you someone who usually takes risks?”4-Choosing“Yes,a lot”to the question“A
67、re you someone who usually takes risks?”“Women tend to be more risk-averse than men.”Yes!Women are often labeled as more risk-averse than men,and our data seems to confirm this.Of all the respondents across 15 countries,64%of men are strong or moderate risk-takers3,while the percentage drops to 51%f
68、or women.In parallel,20%of men are major risk-takers compared to 13%of women.“People who have children are more likely to give up on some of their dreams than take risks to make them come true.”No!Does parenthood mean giving up on wild and risky dreams and putting another persons needs before your o
69、wn?Fettered by children,do parents tend to adopt a riskless personal development path?Contrary to what you might expect,about 56%of respondents without children agree that parenthood would require giving up some of their riskier dreams,but only 51%of people with one child and 50%of people with two o
70、r more children agree with the statement.“People with high income are inclined to take more risks than others.”Yes!Results from the data align with the old Russian proverb:those who drink champagne are indeed risk-takers.23%of people in the high-income group are strong risk-takers4,compared to 14%in
71、 the medium-and low-income groups.Meanwhile,just 34%of respondents in the high-income group are risk-averse,while the percen-tages in the medium-and low-income groups are 43%and 46%respectively.“Older generations feel more vulnerable.”No!Believing older generations perceive more vulnerability sounds
72、 reasonable:after all,older adults tend to suffer more from health problems,mobility limitations,and social exclusion.However,the data has shown a negative relationship between age and perceived vulnerability,which is to say that people over 65 years old feel least vulnerable.Just 4%of the populatio
73、n completely agree with the statement:“In my everyday life,I often feel vulnerable.”Which group perceived the most vulnerability?Surprisingly,people under 25 years old!“People with higher education are more sensitive to cli-mate change-related risks.”No!Conventional wisdom holds that people with hig
74、her levels of education are prone to believe in scientific reasoning,including the urgency and risk of climate change.Our data,however,indicated that the perception of climate change-related risks and education level do not have a strong association.Despite perhaps being counter-intuitive but suppor
75、ted by our data,45%of respondents of low-level educa-tion chose climate change as one of the five most significant risks in the next 5 to 10 years.The number dropped slightly to 42%for highly educated people.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202312AXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X US
76、BEK&RICA13S E CT ION 1A mosaic of perceptions“To win without risk is to triumph without glory.”Although for some this maxim of Corneilles is self-evident,it is far from being shared universally.The perception of risk appears to be eminently subjective:depending on ones age,gender,geography,and socio
77、-professional or family situation,each individual experiences risk in their own way.From one side of the planet to the other,we can observe major disparities within the various categories of populations.This first section analyses the influence of individual characteristics on peoples relationship t
78、o risk and the differences in perception induced by social background.What demographic and socio-economic factors influence the feeling of vulnerability?Do people take more risks when they are younger?What are the differences between men and women in terms of risk perception?AXA X USBEK&RICARisk:A m
79、osaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202314AXA X USBEK&RICAAre we all vulnerable?Revisiting the concept of“vulnerability”Since the 1980s,the term“vulnerability”has appeared frequently in the literature on natu-ral disasters.From its origin,the concept has been used to designate the state of suscept
80、i-bility to harm,lack of power,and marginali-zation in facing adverse conditions.Gradually,vulnerability as a term has been diversely conceptualized in various disciplines such as disaster studies,public health,environmental science,etc.Its extensive use has led to the lack of a unified interdiscipl
81、inary definition and consequently to different understandings of the term.Despite the semantic ambiguity embodied in the word,“vulnerability”is inextricably linked with concepts like risk,resilience,security,etc.Without specifying the condition of hazards and risks,vulnerability in this report is de
82、fined as“a measure of possible future harm1,”drawing on literature from climate change strategies.This perspective thus invites us to further explore the demographic,socioeco-nomic,and broader structural conditions that give rise to the perception of vulnerability,as well as how it relates to the un
83、derstanding of other interconnected concepts such as risk-taking attitudes,societal progress,and the emergence of new technologies.Temporal trends and gender differencesIn general,from 2020 to 2022,there has been a slight decrease in perceived vulnerability.As the global health and socioeconomic cri
84、sis of the COVID-19 pandemic began improving,the share of people who perceived themselves as vulnerable2 in 2022 has dropped by three percent compared to two years ago.In terms of gender differences,women tend to feel more vulnerable than men,although not by a very large margin.According to the data
85、,females who“often feel vulnerable”in their daily lives made up nearly half of the population,11%of whom strongly agree with the sentence“In my everyday life,I often feel vulnerable.”Among male respondents,the number who feel vulnerable in their daily lives dropped to 44%.Socioeconomic conditions an
86、d vulnerabilityVulnerability cannot be defined without taking into account the capacity to absorb,resist,and recover from the impact of hazar-dous events3.Thus,perceived vulnerability is naturally interrelated with risks,adaptability,and resilience.Furthermore,all these ele-ments are naturally corre
87、lated with socioeco-nomic variables.For instance,education and income translate into cultural and economic opportunities and constraints regarding how people cope with risks and build resilience.Social groups with less favorable condi-tions tend to experience more hardship and backlash when confront
88、ed with risks.The results from the data have confirmed this negative relationship between income,education,and vulnerability.Up to 54%of people with a low level of education often feel vulnerable in their daily life.For people with a middle and high level of education,those figures decreased to 47%a
89、nd 45%respec-tively.In terms of income,the percentage of people feeling vulnerable in their daily life in 54%of people with a low level of education often feel vulnerable in their daily life-7to 9 points higher than those with higher education.1-Wolf,S.,Hinkel,J.,Hal-lier,M.,Bisaro,A.,Lincke,D.,Ione
90、scu,C.,&Klein,R.J.(2013).Clarifying vulnerability definitions and assessments using formalisation.Inter-national Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Mana-gement.2-Respondents agree with the statement“In my eve-ryday life,I often feel vulne-rable.”3-Westgate,K.N.(1976).Some definitions of disast
91、er.In Occacional Paper(Vol.4).Inglaterra.University of Bradford.Disaster Research Unit.AXA X USBEK&RICA15the high-income group is 3%lower than in the middle-income group,and 10%lower than in the low-income group.Apart from socioeconomic conditions,an interesting relationship between the number of ch
92、ildren in the household and vulnera-bility is also noted(see Graph 1).Compared to people who have no children,those who do perceive themselves as more vulnerable.Around 44%of respondents with no children feel vulnerable in their daily life.This propor-tion stood at 50%for those who have one child an
93、d rose to 54%for those who have two or more children.One potential explanation could be that vulnerability acts in relation to ones ability to withstand the perturbations of external stressors4.In all population groups,children are among those most at risk when hazards occur and thus require special
94、 care and support from adults5.The extra responsibi-lities brought by children could potentially contribute to the higher level of vulnerability perceived by the adults living in the same household.Also,in the broader context of demographic transition,the number of child-ren may serve as a proxy for
95、 a familys stan-dard of living,as a result of social and econo-mic development,as declining fertility rates tend to be associated with higher per capita income in a country or region6.How are risk perceptions related to vulnerability?The preceding discussion suggests that vulnerability,risk-taking b
96、ehaviors,and attitudes go hand in hand,as vulnerability stands between risk and preparedness.Our analysis of the data also shows some connec-tions between taking risks and feeling more vulnerable.Those who often feel vulnerable in daily life make up 59%of the population in the strong risk-taking gro
97、up,compared to about only 43%in the risk-averse population.This association may be explained by the fact that risk-takers are aware of the possible consequences of their behaviors and are thus concerned about the potential for harm.Vulnerability is not only related to risk-taking attitudes themselve
98、s,but is also entwined with ones opinion toward societal progress and the emergence of novel technologies.For instance,in the group of people with a high level of perceived vulnerability,72%believe that“Technological advances create more risks than they solve.”In sharp contrast,just 33%of the popula
99、tion with a low level of per-ceived vulnerability holds this belief.In the meantime,people who perceive themselves as highly vulnerable are inclined to believe that societal progress can happen without any risk-taking,as about 60%of the group with a high level of perceived vulnerability agree that“O
100、ur societies can progress wit-hout taking any risks,”while just over a third of the low-level perceived vulnerability popu-lation share the same view.In essence,the data shows that socially disad-vantaged and risk-taking groups tend to view themselves as more vulnerable.Additionally,people who perce
101、ive themselves as vulne-rable tend to consider that societal progress does not necessarily entail risk-taking.They also believe that the introduction of new technology typically causes more risks than it resolves.0%Vulnerability and the number of children in the householdAnswer to the statement“In m
102、y everyday life,I often feel vulnerable.”012347Totally disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Totally agree 56NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN THE HOUSEHOLDPROPORTION4-Paul,S.K.(2013).Vulnerabi-lity concepts and its applica-tion in various fields:A review on geographical perspective.Journal of Life and Eart
103、h Science,8,63-81.5-Peek,L.(2008).Children and disasters:Understanding vulnerability,developing capacities,and promoting resilienceAn introduction.Children Youth and Environ-ments,18(1),1-29.6-Kirk,D.(1996).Demogra-phic transition theory.Popu-lation studies,50(3),361-387.25%50%75%100%Risk:A mosaic o
104、f perceptions Foresight Report 202316AXA X USBEK&RICAIs risk-taking the key to success?This notion also seems to be a point of agree-ment for most of the respondents in our study,as an overwhelming majority(75%)agree with the statement that“People who take risks are often more successful than people
105、 who dont.”Similarly,most respon-dents agree that risk is necessary for societys progress,as nearly 60%of participants agree with the idea that our society cannot advance without taking risks7.However,this consensus does not translate into actual practices at the individual level.64%of respondents i
106、n our global sample try to avoid risks in their daily life8,and 54%would be ready to give up on their dreams to avoid taking too many risks.We investigate here some possible social and behavioral reasons that may explain this apparent contradiction.Risk,success,and socio-economic characteristics:Is
107、success in the eyes of the beholder?Across the respondents,the degree to which people agree with the statement“People who take risks are often more successful than people who dont”varies greatly.Looking at the data,some socioeconomic traits are shared by respondents with a similar attitude toward th
108、is statement.Age,country of origin,education,and profession all seem to exert a significant influence.There is a strong relationship between ones agreement with the statement and ones age group,as over 75%of the younger and middle generations(40 years old)tend to agree with it(with 25%strongly agree
109、).This percentage declines as age increases.When it comes to country of origin,there is strong support for this statement in Nigeria(91%),Morocco(87%),Mexico(80%),Hong Kong(79%),and China(78%).On the oppo-site end of the spectrum,only around 6570%of people in Germany,Japan,Italy,France,the U.K.,and
110、Belgium agree with it.7-The original question is formulated as“Our societies can progress without taking risks,”with which 41%of respondents agree and 59%disagree(at the global level).8-64%of respondents agree with the statement“In my everyday life,I always try not to take risks.”In some cultures,po
111、pular beliefs tend to associate risk with success,encouraging people to“take a chance.”The idea that one needs to embrace and overcome risks in order to be successful is ingrained in multiple aspects of an individuals choices and social life.It lies at the root of personal and professional growth;it
112、 is the basis of financial investments,and it spurs innovation by feeding the population an entrepreneurial mindset.The only way to catch tiger cubs is to go into the tigers den.Country differences in viewing risk and successAnswer to the statement“People who take risks are more successful than peop
113、le who dont.”0%PROPORTION25%50%75%100%Totally disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Totally agree NigeriaMoroccoMexicoHong KongChinaAustraliaSpainUnited StatesSwitzerlandFranceItalyBelgiumUnited KingdomJapanGermanyAXA X USBEK&RICA179-Frijns,B.,Hubers,F.,Kim,D.,Roh,T.Y.,&Xu,Y.(2022).National cult
114、ure and corpo-rate risk-taking around the world.Global Finance Jour-nal,52,100710;Hens,T.,Rie-ger,M.O.,&Wang,M.(2020).Cultural Finance:A World Map of Risk,Time and Money(Vol.16).World Scientific.10-People who responded“Yes”to the question“Are you someone who usually takes risks?”11-Percentage of peo
115、ple who agree with the statement“In my everyday life,I try NOT to take risks”as a subset of all the people who agree with the statement“People who take risks are more successful than people who dont.”12-Percentage of people who agree with the statement“Id rather give up some of my dreams than take t
116、oo many risks to make them come true”as a subset of all the people who agree with the statement“People who take risks are more successful than people who dont.”Education and agreementAnswer to the statement“People who take risks are more successful than people who dont.”Totally disagreeSomewhat disa
117、greeSomewhat agreeTotally agreeLow education Middle education High educationPeople with a higher level of education tend to align with the belief that risk leads to suc-cess,whereas people with a lower level of education are more likely to disagree.Finally,people who agree the most with this belief
118、tend to be business managers(92%)or self-employed(80%),denoting a strong align-ment with the entrepreneurial mindset,while those who are the least aligned with it are those who are unemployed and not looking for a job(only 64%agree),as well as retired people(66%).Overall,the data suggests that cultu
119、re plays an important role in peoples perception of the relationship between risk and success.This thesis is supported by empirical stu-dies of individual and corporate risk-taking,which found national culture to be positively related to some dimensions of risk-taking and to overconfidence,which in
120、turn affect the behavior of decision-makers by incentivizing and rewarding successful risk-taking9.This trend is also visible in our data,which highlights a linear,positive relationship between ones attitude toward risk and ones level of agreement with the statement.That is to say,the more people id
121、entify themselves as risk-takers10,the more likely they are to agree with the statement that risk leads to success.As presented previously,higher socioecono-mic positions relate to a higher predisposition toward risk-taking,and to a stronger belief in the connection between risk and success.Culture
122、thus plays a role in influencing mind-set and attitudes regarding the link between risk and success.Risk and success as subjective phenomenaWhen it comes to actual risk-taking beha-viors,the picture is more nuanced.Out of the people who agree with the statement that risk leads to success,nearly 60%t
123、ry not to take risks in their daily life11.Additionally,51%of those in agreement would be ready to give up on their dreams to avoid taking too many risks12.This shows that,while people are aware of the link between risk and success,success is determined by moreand more variedaspects than simply taki
124、ng risks regu-larly.Furthermore,when success requires a series of risks to be taken,as most of us think,not everyone is determined to embark on the long and unpredictable journey to Rome after careful evaluation.These results show that both risks and success are not objective facts,but rather contex
125、t-dependent and socially constructed phenomena.In line with the constructivist approach to risk studies,presented at the beginning of the report(Constructivism vs.positivism:A brief history of the notion of risk,p.8),riskand,by extension,successneed to be understood by focusing on the subjec-tive ex
126、perience of those implicated in it.Risk is not merely a“quantifiable uncertainty,”just as success is not simply the achievement of externally imposed social goals(e.g.,high-sta-tus jobs or ownership of material goods).Both risk and success are subjective and depend on cultural and individual charact
127、eristics.To conclude,while there is a relationship between risk and success,which tends to be promoted in certain cultures and by speci-fic narratives(e.g.,in startups or investment domains),each aspect should be assessed and evaluated in its own right.Taking certain risks will not lead to successfo
128、r example,biking without a helmetand many forms of success do not require spectacular risks,like defending a graduation thesis.0%PROPORTION25%50%75%100%Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202318AXA X USBEK&RICAThe age of risk13-Malmendier,U.,&Nagel,S.(2011).Depression babies:do macroeconom
129、ic experiences affect risk taking?The quarterly journal of economics,126(1),373-416.14-Bonsang,E.,&Dohmen,T.(2015).Risk attitude and cognitive aging.Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,112,112-126.100%Thus,how does age affect our relationship to risk?During which stages of life does this trans
130、formation happen?How do different age groups perceive the relationship between risk and other aspects of life?We summarize here what the data reveals about age,risk-ta-king attitudes,and perception,as well as the five biggest risks as viewed by different age groups.Risk attitudes at different stages
131、 of lifeFrom the data,risk-taking attitudes remain relatively similar for young adults from 18 to 35 years old,with about 50%of the population being moderately risk-taking,25%strongly risk-taking,20%moderately risk-averse,and 5%strongly risk-averse.Beginning at 35,there is a gradual decrease in the
132、willingness to take risks.For the 35-45-year-old age group,the share of the risk-takers drops from around 75%to 66%.For those 45-50 years of age,the share of the risk-taking group accounted for only about 54%.The decreasing pattern in risk-taking remains linear until approximately age 65.After age 6
133、5,the slope flattens.Risks permeate our lives.Depending on the stage of life we are in,we adopt different risk-taking patterns related to our lifestyle.For instance,people who are risk-averse also tend to shy away from pursuing risky dreams.Simi-larly to what has been observed with risk-ta-king atti
134、tudes,the tendency to avoid risky dreams peaks in the senior group,consisting of respondents above 65 years old.In this age group,around 66%of the population would predominantly opt to give up aspirations that call for taking too many risks.The younger,the more reckless:those who are prudent only ma
135、ke up 39%of the population in the youngest group,from 18 to 25,and 48%in the 25-35-year-old group.Conventional wisdom holds that as time pro-gresses,people tend to hold on to what they already have,rather than venture into a new,uncertain environment.The dominant view on the relationship between age
136、 and risk-ta-king is thus that ones eagerness to take risks decreases over ones life span,but the mecha-nism through which this change operates remains under debate.For instance,studies in behavioral economics have shown a systematic association between cognitive aging and a decline in ones willin-g
137、ness to take risks13.Meanwhile,age could also be considered a proxy for cohort effects,which represent typical experiences at parti-cular points in time(e.g.,major financial crisis,war,etc.)and consequently influence how an individual perceives risks14.80%60%40%20%0%Taking risky dreams and ageAnswer
138、 to the statement“Id rather give up some of my dreams than take too many risks to make them come true.”Less than 25 y.o.25-34 y.o.35-44 y.o.45-54 y.o.55-64 y.o.65 y.o.and overTotally agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Totally disagreeRisk attitudes and ageStrong risk-averse Moderate risk-averse
139、Moderate risk-taker Strong risk-taker20406080AGECOUNT0%25%50%75%100%AXA X USBEK&RICA19Societal progress,risk,andageIn the same way that individuals must cope with various types of risks in their personal lives,our society,as argued by the theory of risk society,is also organized in response to risks
140、.We live in societies that are more and more concerned with the future(as well as with safety),which gives rise to the idea of risk.How do different age groups that have lived through distinct times envision this relationship between socie-tal progress and risks?In general,both young and late adult
141、groups are suspicious of the statement“our societies can progress without taking any risk.”The youngest group,from 18 to 25,is the most pessimistic about the“riskless”advancement of societies:only 37%agree with the statement.Almost half of the respondents in the middle-aged group(35 to 44 years old)
142、,are nonetheless relatively optimistic about safe and smooth societal progress.Top risks by age groupWhat people consider to be the most signi-ficant type of risk also varies by age.Respon-dents were asked to rank the top five future risks that may have a significant impact on society in the next fi
143、ve to ten years.Among all age groups,climate change and the pandemic were the point of agreement.Climate change Youth group(18-34)-Strongest risk-taking attitudes-Highest level of vulnerability-Larger propensity for risky dreams-Strongest belief in asso-ciation between societal progress and risks-Co
144、ncern about environmen-tal,pandemic,and financial stability risksMiddle-age group(35-54)-Moderate risk-taking attitudes and perceived vulnerability-Strongest belief in risk-ta-king and personal success-Deepest concern in pande-mic risks compared with other age groups Senior group(55-)-Strongest risk
145、-averse attitudes-Lowest level of vulnerability-Least likely to have risky dreams-Strongest belief that zero risks does not exist-Concern about climate change,societal risks and cybersecurityClimate changePandemics and infectious diseases(antimicrobial resis-tance,new strains of infectious diseases.
146、)PollutionNatural resources and biodiversity risks(over-consumption of natural resources,loss of biodiversity,deforestation.)Financial stability risks(systemic market failure,bubble burst,passive investment.)Energy risks(growing energy demand,challenges related to energy storage technology,rising pr
147、ices,supply problems.)Cybersecurity risks(shutdown of essential services and critical infrastructures,cyber extortion,Identity theft,loss of privacy.)Geopolitical instability(decline of multilateralism,nuclear threat,energy security,military conflicts,cyber warfare.)New security threats and terroris
148、m(evolving terrorist attack methods with lone wolves or small groups,cyber warfare,fake news.)1234525-34Less than 2535-4445-5455-64About 65Top 5 future risks of 6 age groupstops the ranking for all age groups except those aged 45 to 54,whose primary concerns remain pandemics and infectious diseases.
149、Beyond these two primary risks,young people(under 25)are more worried about environ-ment-related risks,which accounted for three of their five top risks.Senior groups aged 55 and above,by contrast,consider societal tur-bulence such as security threats,terrorism,and geopolitical instability as posing
150、 more serious risks to the future.Another noteworthy observation is young peoples concern about financial uncertainty,as“financial ability risks”rank fifth in the group from 18 to 25 but did not rank in other age groups top five.The association between age and risk percep-tion that has been previous
151、ly addressed ope-rates not only on an individual and group level,but also at the national scale:does a society become more risk-averse as its population ages?The shift in risk attitudes and perceptions brought by a change in demographic structure may have far-reaching effects on social,politi-cal,an
152、d economic outcomes.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202320AXA X USBEK&RICAThe age factorPrimary data analysis confirms the“ste-reotype:”women do tend to display higher degrees of risk aversion than men.Overall,the split between risk-takers and risk-averse is even in the female populati
153、on,whereas 64%of male respondents are risk-takers.Furthermore,a fifth of men report being strong risk-takers.For females,by contrast,this proportion is only 13%.However,once age is taken into account,it becomes clear how gender differences evolve with age,and how the trend varies among different ris
154、k-taking groups.For instance,in the group of strong risk-takers,there is no noticeable gender difference for the youngest age group(from 17 to 25 years old).However,the share of male risk-takers becomes almost twice as big as their female counterparts for those aged 25-45.As age increases further,th
155、e gender gap reduces,with one exception being the mode-rate risk-takers group,which does not exhibit any remarkable gender disparity:the pro-portion of men and women remains nearly constant across all age groups,with the excep-tion of those over 65.When it comes to the strong risk-averse group,the g
156、reatest diffe-rences lie in the number of men and women in the middle-aged group(45-65 years old),where there are over twice as many females as males.The age effect is especially noti-ceable between 25 and 45 years old,where the proportion of male risk-takers reaches its peak.From 45 to 65 years old
157、,the proportion of women declaring they are risk-averse is also the highest.In a nutshell,while gender does indeed play a role in ones attitude toward risk,this role tends to strongly vary based on age and the risk-taking group being discussed.Does the future shine brigh-ter for men?With respect to
158、future risks and their emer-gence,men and women reached a consensus on the top ten future risks,consisting of four environmental risks,five societal risks,and one health-related risk.However,women are more pessimistic about the future of the most significant risks in terms of public awareness and th
159、e preparation of public authorities.Gender accounts for up to a 7%difference in opinion on whether public authorities are well-prepared for a given risk.Similarly,for seven out of ten future risks,women are less optimistic about the awareness of the general public than men.20%of the male population
160、reported being strong risk-takers,while the number for females is only 13%The language we use to describe risk attitude and behavior is remarkably gendered,influenced by archetypes that tend to establish a strong relationship between ones gender and ones propensity to take risks in daily life.Howeve
161、r,as a critical social determinant,gender is also intertwined with other factors that revolve around risks.Here,we aim to shed light on how gender influences risk attitudes,vulnerability,and the perception of future risks,while also taking other factors,such as age,into account.The gender of riskAXA
162、 X USBEK&RICA21RisksThe public authorities are well-prepared for the emergence of this risk Male percentageFemale percentageClimate change2826Pandemics and infectious diseases(antimicrobial resistance,new strains of infectious diseases,etc.)4441Energy risks(growing energy demand,challenges related t
163、o energy storage technology,rising prices,supply problems,etc.)3934Geopolitical instability(decline of multilateralism,nuclear threat,energy security,military conflicts,cyber warfare,etc.)3635Cybersecurity risks(shutdown of essential services and critical infrastructures,cyber extortion,iden-tity th
164、eft,loss of privacy,etc.)4337Pollution3535Social tensions and movements(large-scale migrations,water and food insecurity,social movements and riots,inequalities,etc.)3332New security threats and ter-rorism(evolving terrorist attack methods with lone wolves or small groups,cyber warfare,fake news,etc
165、.)4336Financial stability risks(systemic market failure,bubble burst,passive investment,etc.)3936Natural resources and biodiver-sity risks(over-consumption of natural resources,loss of biodiver-sity,deforestation,etc.)3528Risks:Gender differences on the preparation of public authoritiesRisk:A mosaic
166、 of perceptions Foresight Report 202322AXA X USBEK&RICAPersona:Lifestyle and risk perceptionBy Guillaume Renouard from Usbek&RicaHow does risk perception change from one person to another based on criteria such as age,cultural background,educational level,income,and family situation?Three fictitious
167、 profiles provide a clearer view on this matter.Risk profile:con-cerned about cli-mate change and her future financial stability.As a child,summer was Marias favorite season:her parents would always take her on a road trip to enjoy the Golden States seemingly endless supply of beautiful natural scen
168、ery.Now,while she still enjoys summer very much,she also asso-ciates it with wildfire season.As sum-mer has become longer and hotter because of climate change,wildfires have gotten worse,clearing gigantic portions of forest in her home state every single year.This,combined with a passion for mathema
169、tics,has led has led Maria to study enginee-ring,with the dream of working for a company that will help fight climate change,perhaps by building wind turbines,using artificial intelligence to better spot wildfires,or contribu-ting to another innovation.A second-generation Mexican immi-grant,Maria wa
170、snt born wealthy.Her father drove a city bus in San Francisco while her mom worked as a housemaid.They often struggled to make ends meet.To pay for tuition fees,she took out a large student loan and works night shifts at a local Maria,20 years old,student in San Jos,Californiarestaurant.While shes c
171、onfident that shell be able to repay her student debt once she secures an enginee-ring position in the thriving California green economy,shes becoming wor-ried about galloping inflation,which is pushing interest rates up and increasing the amount of debt shell have to repay.Yet,shes convinced that t
172、he risks she took borrowing that money will end up paying off later in her life,while helping her achieve her dreams.After all,the United States is the land of opportunity,as her father used to tell her as a child while fixing her meal.In order to save money,she lives with her parents,in the little
173、house that they rent in the suburbs of San Jos.While her parents never had it easy,they managed to escape a life of misery and drug-related violence in the Sonoran Desert to relocate to California.From them,Maria inhe-rited a you-can-do-it mentality,and she isnt afraid of taking risks to accomplish
174、her goals in life.She also believes that society must take risks to make significant progress,and that risk-taking is necessary to protect the environment.Shes confident that,along with all the climate-conscious young people from her generation,shell be able Futurology:Over the next twenty years,Mar
175、ias personal life will be first and foremost impacted by economics and climate change.Growing interest rates and/or a shrinking job market could increase the burden of her student debt and prove very challenging for her.Her will to build her career around protecting the environment could lead her to
176、 move to an area where she can have a significant impact,or on the contrary to invest in her local com-munity to make it more resilient to climate change.to correct the mistakes from the past and save humanity from a climate change-induced collapse.Yet,every year,as spring comes to its end,she finds
177、 herself praying that the upco-ming wildfire season wont be as bad as the last one.AXA X USBEK&RICA23Risk profile:concerned about geopolitical and climate risks that threa-ten his descendants ability to live a stable life.Gin Gwok has always been a risk-averse indi-vidual.Despite being the son of a
178、wealthy hedge-fund manager,he started valuing sta-bility at an age when most dream of danger and adventures and did everything to attain as safe a position as possible.After some bril-liant studies in Hong Kong,he flew to the U.K.to study for two years at Cambridge Univer-sity.When he returned to hi
179、s homeland,he secured a well-paid position at a major local bank,where he dedicated himself fully to his job,working long hours to slowly climb up the corporate ladder and build a career that provided him with comfortable earnings and a safe position.He married his high school sweetheart at age 25 a
180、nd they had a son together,who he sent to an expensive private school to ensure he got the best possible education.When he was promoted to a top executive position,Gin Gwok borrowed enough cash to buy a brand-new apartment in The Peak,a wealthy,quiet,and safe neighborhood.Thanks to good finance mana
181、gement practices,he repaid his mortgage in a few years and now lives debt-free.As hes getting closer to retirement age,Gin Gwok can count on a comfortable pension,but he has also made some wise and safe Gin Gwok,59 years old,banker in Hong Kongstock investments in ETFs and government bonds throughou
182、t his life to ensure he and his wife have an additional cash cushion as they enter old age.He also doesnt mind paying extra money for private health insurance as he wants to make sure that they both get the best care they need should either of them have an accident or fall ill.Gin Gwoks daily life i
183、s comfortable and pretty risk-free.Yet,he finds it more and more difficult to not worry about the state of the world he lives in.Hes been very careful since the beginning of the Covid-19 pande-mic but is now wondering when the endless lockdowns will come to an end.Increased tensions between China an
184、d the U.S.are also a constant source of anxiety for him,as further sanctions against his country could isolate its economy and jeopardize job creation and prosperity.While his own position is quite safe,he worries for the future of his son and his grandchildren as geopolitical tensions continue to r
185、ise.Hes also reading news about climate change with a growing concern,knowing that a significant part of Hong Kong could end up underwater should the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes most pessimistic scenarios become reality.He invested some of his fortune to help fund a city program that
186、plans on building a levee to contain rising waters.However,the overwhelming forces of a changing climate are a risk that Gin Gwok has to learn to live with.Futurology:Over the next twenty years,Gin Gwoks risk perception will be influenced by two main variables.First of all,the relationship between C
187、hina and the United States.An appeasement would calm his fears,while increased economic,or even worse,geopolitical tensions would confirm them.Secondly,climate change and his citys capacity to adapt to it will be a crucial matter for him,as he witnesses his children and grandchildrens life prospects
188、 improve or,on the contrary,decline based on the evolution of the fight against rising global temperatures.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202324AXA X USBEK&RICARisk profile:concerned about geopolitical risks that threaten peace,and energy risks that jeo-pardize her capacity to make en
189、ds meet.Sofia was born in a country that ceased to exist when she was only three years old.While she doesnt have any memories of the USSR or communism,shes heard many stories from her parents and grandparents:enough to know how much her country has changed in a short period of time.Like many in her
190、country,Sofia benefited from the years of economic growth and recovered freedom that followed the fall of the Soviet Union.Her teenage years were spent listening to American rock bands that suddenly appeared on the shelves of music stores,drinking German beer,and going to underground parties with he
191、r friends.After finishing high school,she got a job as a civil servant in the local city hall,where she worked full time until she met her future hus-band through one of her best friends and got married.She now works three days a week to spend more time at home with her three children,while her husb
192、and works long hours as a farm hand for a local company.While not wealthy,the couple has enough to live a simple,yet happy life.Unlike her parents,Sofia feels lucky that she never had to skip a meal or stand in line for hours to get a loaf of bread or a pound of butter.The couple is also able to gro
193、w their own fruits and vegetables in their garden,saving a bit of money in the pro-cess.However,Sofia is increasingly worried by war making a comeback in Europe.Her parents told her many stories about the Rus-sian occupation of Latvia,as well as the brief period of political turmoil and uncertainty
194、during which the Soviet Union collapsed,and Sofia,35 years old,civil servant in Ludza,a village in the Latvian countrysideshe watched the invasion of Ukraine with fear-ful eyes.The sanction-induced energy crisis has also put a strain on the couples budget,as they rely on their car for everything.Fur
195、thermore,geopolitical tensions mean an increase in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructures.A few months ago,the local energy grid was hacked,leading to a blackout that lasted for two days and caused the whole village to fear an upcoming military invasion,which for-tunately never happened.It
196、remains unclear whether the attack was caused by hackers looking for money or by a foreign power conducting cyber warfare,yet the experience brought back some very bad memories among the older residents.While carefully monitoring her households spending,Sofia hopes that the war will soon come to an
197、end and is looking forward to not being anxious whenever she looks at her energy bill.Futurology:Sofias next twenty years will mostly be determined by the relationship between Russia and the West.A ceasefire in Ukraine,followed by closer relationships between the two blocs,would ease her fears of wa
198、r and the energy cri-sis that threatens her households financial stability.In contrast,increased tensions followed by a Russian invasion of her country could lead her to emigrate with her family and look for a safer life abroad.AXA X USBEK&RICA25InterviewAre we becoming toorisk-averse?We have just b
199、een through a global pandemic and are now experiencing the first war in Europe since the 1990s,two major events which have definitely tested our ability to deal with risk.Youre both confronted with risk in your respective professions,David as a statistician studying risk behavior and Graldine throug
200、h your practice of extreme sports.In your opinion,how has risk perception in our society evolved recently?Faced with new systemic risks,have we become more careful and risk-averse,or on the contrary are we now numb to risk?David Ros Insua Id say that we are getting more risk-averse,and I see differe
201、nt reasons for that.First of all,were faced with a growing number of threats.At the dawn of humanity,we only needed to be concerned about predators and the weather:now there are threats of an ato-mic war,a financial crisis,terrorist events,and so on.Things have become worse recently,as risks seem to
202、 be cropping up at a faster pace,while also becoming more complex and with higher stakes.Secondly,at least in the deve-loped world,we have become more affluent,which means that we have more to lose,and therefore our risk tolerance becomes lower.Finally,our knowledge of a certain number of issues has
203、 also expanded.Until a few years ago,nobody cared about the palm oil in our food,but now,thanks to better information and a growing concern for the planet,we are no longer willing to accept it.The same goes for drunk driving,which was common a few decades ago but which we now consider socially unacc
204、eptable because of the risks it implies.We now demand government regula-tions to crack down on it.How do our societies perceive risks and how does this perception evolve over time?We discussed this matter with two experts who directly deal with risk in their professional lives,although in quite diff
205、erent ways.Graldine Fasnacht is a world-renowned freeride snowboarder,base jumper and wingsuit pilot.She was named“Adventurer of the Year 2021”by Paris Match magazine.David Ros Insua is a Research Professor at ICMAT and a member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences.He leads the AXA-ICMAT Chair i
206、n Adversarial Risk Analysis.His research focuses on risk analysis and its application in various fields.Graldine FasnachtDavid Ros InsuaRisk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202326AXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICA“On the one hand,I would agree that society as a whole is becoming more risk-ave
207、rse.On the other hand,and we see it particularly in outdoor sports,there are also people who take more inconsiderate risks.”Graldine FasnachtGraldine Fasnacht In my opinion,there are two different trends.On the one hand,I would agree that society as a whole is becoming more risk-averse.In this regar
208、d,Covid had a huge effect on us.As people were forced to stay at home,many suffered from depression and needed professional help.On the other hand,and we see it particularly in outdoor sports,there are also people who take more inconsiderate risks.Social media has made it easier to share breathtakin
209、g videos of outdoor sports performances,which is great,but the other side of the coin is that some people just see the tip of the iceberg and dont understand that making these videos requires years of training as a professional athlete.They watch a cool freeriding video on Facebook and dont realize
210、that it takes years of training,several days a week,to get there.They are tempted to reproduce what they have seen and end up putting themselves in danger.And as the equipment needed to do these sports has become more affordable and easier to use,the temptation is even greater.What has your work tau
211、ght you about risk and how to deal with it?D.I.If my work has taught me one thing,its that were not very good,as a species,at making probabilistic judgments,nor at thinking ratio-nally and statistically about risks!To make decisions,we tend to rely on our stomachs rather than our brains,which is a c
212、onsequence of thousands of years of evolution.We also have all kinds of biases when it comes to assessing a risk.For example,I can formu-late the exact same problem in two different ways,which will probably lead you to give a different answer,even though the data is the same.Now,of course,this is so
213、mething we can work on.During my courses,I show my students how they can easily fall into different traps and how to avoid them in the future.This is not only true on an individual level,but also,maybe more importantly,on an organiza-tional level.For example,I once worked with the Aviation Safety Ag
214、ency and realized that the tools they were using were not extremely sophisticated.By taking a rational approach and carrying out more detailed analyses,we were quickly able to reduce their security costs and save them a tremendous amount of money.I do think that things are getting better,though.Many
215、 governments and corporations use much more sophisticated analytical tools to make decisions than they did 50 years ago.We are moving toward more evidence-based decision-making.G.F.I minimize risks as much as possible,as I love life too much to risk it needlessly!For example,I once had to get out of
216、 a cab in Iran because the driver was too reckless.As far as Im concerned,risk calculation is all about knowing yourself and your environment.Im 42.I train between three and five times a week.I know what Im capable of,but I also know my limits,which is the most important thing.I am human and I accep
217、t it.Then,of course,there is the natural element.To reach the top of the mountain,if I know Ill have to cross a glacier on the way,I wake up early to be there in the morning,when the sun isnt as strong yet and the risk of crevasses is lower.Before jumping,I check where the wind is coming from,whethe
218、r its continuous or whether its the type of wind that momenta-rily disappears and suddenly comes back,and based on all of that I assess the risk and make my decision.That is why I sometimes reach the summit,but instead of jumping with my wing-suit,I decide to just walk back down the moun-tain becaus
219、e it would be too risky otherwise.AXA X USBEK&RICA27AXA X USBEK&RICAAs far as Im concerned,that is what dealing with risks means.Its knowing that even if you cant jump or ride today,its no big deal,you can do it next week or some other time.And to be able to make those decisions,you need to train ve
220、ry hard,to know yourself,and to understand nature.How do you envision the evolution of our societies risk tolerance in the near future?G.F.Im personally afraid that were edging toward the U.S.model,where you can put your cat in the microwave and then sue the company because the manual didnt tell you
221、 not to do that!As Ive just said,I will never take any inconsiderate risks,but at the same time I fir-mly believe that as humans,we are responsible for the choices we make.I dont think that a society that tries to erase risk by depriving people of their own responsibility would be desirable.D.I.I fe
222、el like risks will keep increasing,both in num-ber and in diversity,in severity and complexity,while the world is also becoming more inter-connected,so something that affects Paris will affect Europe as a whole,which wasnt neces-sarily the case before.That doesnt mean the future will be terrible,it
223、will actually be quite interesting.However,it does mean that we need to get ready and improve our ability to face that type of future.I feel like powerful algorithms can help us through it,but then we also need appropriate regulations to make sure that artificial intelli-gence is used correctly and
224、serves the right purpose,because it can be a formidable tool to gather information and make better risk evaluations,which means better decisions.G.F.I also believe that information is key.We are lucky enough to live in a society where informa-tion is more and more accessible,which means we can becom
225、e more knowledgeable than at any other time in history.If we keep learning and apply that knowledge to make better infor-med decisions,well keep growing as a society.If we dont,and follow the worst trends that were now witnessing on social media(e.g.people commenting about things they know nothing a
226、bout),it will be more of a struggle.“To make decisions,we tend to rely on our stomachs rather than our brains,which is a consequence of thousands ofyears of evolution.”David Ros InsuaRisk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202328AXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICA29SECTIO N 2A wor
227、ld of asymmetry:How risk perceptions vary across countries and culturesClimate change,cybersecurity,political instability,energy risks.Todays world is prone to major upheavals,but the appearance of various threats is not experienced everywhere in a uniform manner.While there seems to be internationa
228、l consensus on our planets environmental emergency,many historical,economic,and geopolitical factors explain the predominance of certain subjects at the national or continental level.In collaboration with the AXA-ENS Research Chair in the Geopolitics of Risk,this section provides a comparative analy
229、sis of the differences in perception of environmental,security,and energy risks,taking five countries as a field of study:France,the United Kingdom,China,Japan,and the United States.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202330AXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICAClimate change:A concern without b
230、ordersClimate change is already one of the most pressing challenges to global security,and it will only become more severe in the decades to come.It is therefore no surprise that in 2022,respondents from all around the world shared similar concerns regarding climate risks.Climate change is ranked as
231、 the num-ber one risk facing society in the next 5 to 10 years by British(50%),American(38%),French(54%),and Japanese respondents(52%).Chinese respondents are also aware of climate risks(31%)but see pandemics and infectious diseases(51%)as a more imme-diate threat.Awareness around climate-related ri
232、sks has been gaining momentum around the world,which is not only a consequence of outreach campaigns,but also a result of respondents first-hand experience of the effects of climate change.Extreme weather events such as droughts,wildfires,and floods,while more severe in some areas than others,were f
233、elt globally in 2022,which certainly reduced the perception gap regarding climate change.As well as reflecting the growing concern about climate change,the surveys results demons-trate how deeply it has impacted global risk perceptions in recent times.Still,some differences exist between coun-tries.
234、In China,climate change is seen as slowly emerging(45%),while many American respondents(41%)consider that it is progres-sing rapidly.It is highly likely that this trend is driven by the steady increase in extreme weather events in the U.S.throughout 2022,a year that will be remembered for its devas-
235、tating storms and floods as well as its extreme heat waves,droughts,and wildfires.Contrastingly,in Japan,an overwhelming majority of the respondents define climate change as a longstanding and enduring issue(62%).As a result of its geographic characteristics,the country has experienced numerous weat
236、her catastrophes over the years,including the tsunami that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.Furthermore,the identification of more spe-cific climate-related risks also varies across Focus on demographicsAge and gender both play a role in assessing the risks of climate change.Across all
237、countries sur-veyed except China,women tend to be somewhat more likely to describe climate change as a major threat than men.The United States showed the greatest gender gap with a 20 percentage-point difference on this issue,with 60%of female respon-dents considering climate change a top priority v
238、ersus 40%of men.Meanwhile,in China,the gender gap is almost nonexistent,with just a 2-point difference between men and women(51%versus 49%).Country-to-country differences exist among the age groups who are mostly concerned about climate risk.For instance,looking at older genera-tions,Japanese respon
239、dents over 65 are significantly more likely to view climate change as a threat(38%)compared to the same age group in the United States(25%)and in China(9%).Zooming in on the U.S.,res-pondents under 25 demonstrate the most substantial margin of concern regarding climate change compared to younger gen
240、erations across all other countries surveyed(12%ver-sus 4%in the U.K.).This challenges widespread assumptions about glo-bal generational divides on this issue and highlights the importance of considering country-specific contexts when developing solutions for global challenges.62%of Japanese respond
241、ents consider climate change as a longstanding and enduring issue AXA X USBEK&RICA311-Chinese Air Pollution Lin-ked to Respiratory and Car-diovascular Deaths,American Thoracic Society,10 February 2017.2-Beqiraj,J.,and Ippolito,F.(2021).COVID-19 and Interna-tional Organizations:Challen-ges and Opport
242、unities from the Perspective of Good Governance and the Rule of Law.International Organiza-tions Law Review 18,3,293-306,Available From:Brill.3-Summary Note of COVID-19 Webinars of the Partnership of International Organisa-tions for Effective Internatio-nal Rule-making,OECD.Neighbors Japan and China
243、 differ in their perception of geopolitical risksTwo neighbors can have quite different opi-nions,and when it comes to geopolitics,that is certainly the case with China and Japan.While Chinese respondents perceive geopoli-tical instability as the second-greatest threat to society in the coming years
244、,respondents in Japan are much less anxious.Geopolitical risks only rank fifth for Japanese respondents,after climate change(52%),pandemics and infectious diseases(47%),energy(45%),and cybersecurity risks(37%).Despite their geographical proximity and cer-tain shared cultural traits,the two countries
245、 have very different perceptions of current geopolitical issues such as the decline of multilateralism,nuclear threats,energy secu-rity,military conflicts,and cyber warfare.This could be a consequence of the divergent roles the two countries play in the international system.Despite its permanent sea
246、t on the UN Security Council,China is currently experien-cing growing isolation on the international scene,fueled by global criticism of Beijings aggressive policies and human rights viola-tions.This could naturally generate uncer-tainty and anxiety among Chinese citizens,while their Japanese neighb
247、ors are unaffec-ted by such controversies.The differing perceptions of Chinese and Japanese populations are also keenly reflec-ted in how they estimate the effects of geopo-litical instability on their respective societies.Chinese respondents demonstrate high levels of awareness about geopolitical r
248、isks(77%),while in Japan,the public is more likely to report being“unaware of those issues(51%).”This indicates that although geopolitical risks may have equally significant impacts on most East Asian countries,they are not perceived in the same way by the general public in China and Japan.countries
249、.In France,for example,individuals are mostly concerned about pollution,with roughly two-thirds of respondents ranking it as the fourth-greatest risk after geopolitical instability(35%).In China,where respiratory mortality linked to air pollution is a major public health issue1,respondents largely s
250、hare this concern(sixth-biggest risk for 26%of respondents).By contrast,pollution is seen as less of an issue in the United Kingdom(eighth-greatest risk),the United States(ninth)and Japan(tenth).These results demonstrate that behind a shared sense of eco-anxiety lies diverging sociocultural contexts
251、,constructed notions of risk,and historical legacies.In terms of finding solutions,a majority in France(52%),the United Kingdom(56%),and Japan(48%)believe that decisions will be most effective if made at a global level,and a sizeable share of the public in China(47%)and the United States(45%)agree.T
252、his indicates that trust in international institu-tions,albeit recently challenged by the global health crisis,still prevails2.The vulnerabilities highlighted by the Covid-19 crisis provide an incentive to reinforce cooperation to tackle challenges,on both continental and global levels3.77%of Chines
253、e respondents demonstrate high levels of awareness about geopolitical risks Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202332AXA X USBEK&RICAHow are Europeans coping with growing geopolitcal tensions?Since the invasion of Ukraine,geopolitics has become omnipresent in the European media,yet Europe
254、ans are divided on the importance of geopolitical stability.This is particularly evident when comparing public opinion in France and the United Kingdom.While both populations share similar levels of awareness of geopolitical risks(51%in France versus 56%in the United Kingdom),they are not per-ceived
255、 with the same urgency in both coun-tries.A sizeable portion of French respondents view geopolitical instability as the third-greatest future risk that may have a significant impact on society in the next 5 to 10 years,while their counterparts from the U.K.rank geopolitical risks as only the fifth-b
256、iggest threat,instead considering energy risks(45%),pandemics(39%),and cybersecurity(35%)as greater causes for concern.This regional divide on the impact that political and security crises could have on economic,human,or diploma-tic interests can be explained by the way geo-political risks are depic
257、ted by political elites in the two countries.In France,President Macron has been a strong and ambitious pro-ponent of liberal internationalism and has pushed geopolitical issues to the top of the agenda during his time in office.Meanwhile,in recent years,the United Kingdom has been increasing its fo
258、cus on bilateral relations regarding foreign and security policies5.Divergences between the two populations also appear when respondents are asked what level of decision is the most appropriate in addressing global issues.Respondents in the United Kingdom show a tendency to trust international organ
259、izations more than the French(55%versus 44%).In France,the popu-lation is more likely to believe that decisions to address future risks should be made at the country level(34%versus 22%).55%of respondents in the United Kingdom show a tendency to trust international organizations(versus 44%in France)
260、5-Summary of Frances Bila-teral relations with the United Kingdom.Despite these differences in opinions,the two countries tend to agree on the solution for preventing adverse consequences of global crises.Chinese and Japanese respondents respectively rate the military as the second and third most ca
261、pable actor to address a potential global crisis in the next 12 months.Such faith in the armys ability to respond to a crisis indicates potentially growing concern among the Chinese and Japanese popula-tions about the intensification of conflicts in East Asia.Contrasting perceptions of geopolitical
262、risk in China and Japan are not only related to their respective positions in the international order,but also to their histories.Currently,Japan benefits from the protection provided by its military alliance with the United States.However,considering its history as the only country to have experien
263、ced the full force of nuclear weapons,Japan is acutely aware of the possibility of a global war and the reality of its consequences(75%).This awareness has gained momentum lately among top public officials,as illustrated by Japans record-high 2023 defense budget.This new National Security Strategy4
264、shows a clear political will to invest in the countrys defense capabilities in the coming years.As the biggest military buildup in the country since World War II,it is certainly possible that Japanese perceptions of risk may change in 2023.On the other hand,while geopolitical instabi-lity is on the
265、minds of respondents in China,they also appear to be more skeptical of the likelihood of war.Interestingly,despite a higher level of awareness,the Chinese popu-lation is less convinced than the Japanese that geopolitical tensions could lead to fresh global warfare.For the majority of Chinese respond
266、ents,geopolitical tension has always existed,and the risk of escalation into a world war remains low(56%versus 25%in Japan).4-National Security Strategy of Japan,Ministry of Foreign Affairs,December 2022.AXA X USBEK&RICA33Despite these differences,the French and the British believe that geopolitical
267、 tensions have the potential to escalate.In both countries,an overwhelming majority believe that current tensions could lead to a new global war(69%in France versus 74%in the U.K.).Anxiety about the current state of the world is shared among populations across the European continent.Over the last ye
268、ar,these concerns have unfortunately been confirmed and sharpened by the war in Ukraine.It is the-refore no surprise that the fears raised by the reality of an armed conflict in Europe have transformed into a determination to act,in Paris and in London.Russias invasion of Ukraine has prompted a revi
269、ew of defense budgets in both countries.While the United Kingdom plans to review its 2021 Integrated Review and Defence Com-mand Paper6,in France,the Ministry of Armed Forces has proposed a 49.3 billion defense budget for the fiscal year 20237,marking an increase in defense spending for the sixth ye
270、ar in a row.This is expected to increase even further in the coming years as each country seeks to modernize its armed forces and expand its military capabilities in response to growing security threats around the world.Demographic differences in the perception of geopolitical risksThe results highl
271、ight that in both countries,female respondents(52%versus 48%in France;54%versus 47%in the United Kingdom)and older respondents tend to be the most concerned about geopolitical risks.In the United Kingdom,adults in their mid-50s to mid-60s are more likely to be preoccupied with geopo-litical instabil
272、ity(26%).Meanwhile,in France,real signs of concern arise slightly later,from the age of 65 onwards(26%).Nevertheless,on ave-rage,younger generations in France(between 18 and 25)are almost three times more likely to consider geopo-litical instability a major threat than young people in the United Kin
273、gdom(8%versus 3%).6-The war against Ukraine and the Integrated Review,Council on Geostrategy,14 July 2022.7-Projet de loi de finances des Armes 2023,Ministres des Armes.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202334AXA X USBEK&RICAA tale of two countries:Energy vulnerability in France and the
274、U.K.Following the conflict in Ukraine,disrup-tions in gas supply chains have made energy security a major issue everywhere in Europe.Nonetheless,the perception of energy risks differs from one country to another.This is particularly true regarding France and the United Kingdom,whose respondents pres
275、ent a stark contrast in their understanding of risks related to energy storage technology,rising prices,and supply issues.While U.K.respondents rank energy as the second-biggest risk based on potential impact to society over the next 5 to 10 years,in France,energy is perceived as more of a mar-ginal
276、 concern(8th major risk).Consequently,although respondents from both countries perceive energy threats as a longstanding phenomenon(47%in France and 42%in the U.K.),U.K.respondents are significantly more likely to be aware of energy challenges than their French counterparts(77%versus 56%).This subst
277、antial difference can be explained by the specificities in the public debate around energy in the two countries.In France,the discussion around energy security and stability focuses on nuclear safety and relia-bility,as nuclear energy is widely portrayed as a critical guarantee of energy security.In
278、 the U.K.,rather than nuclear energy,there is a greater acknowledgement of the countrys dependence on imported fossil fuels.In light of its energy vulnerability,the U.K.government is focused on securing supplies.The U.K.formerly benefitted from a steady flow of oil and natural gas extracted from the
279、 deep waters of the North Sea,which once consti-tuted its main source of power generation.But it has become increasingly dependent on imported energy in recent years.The publication of the governments new Energy Security Strategy in 20228 demonstrates the efforts being made by authorities to reduce
280、this dependence.As secure energy access will determine the countrys capacity for action in other areas,it will become even more crucial in the years to come.In France,the situation is quite different,since energy supply is already relatively secure.The country benefits from a robust network of domes
281、tic production capacity,as well as extensive natural gas and nuclear power generation infrastructure.However,further investments in clean energy technologies,particularly solar and wind power,will be nee-ded if France is to meet its long-term climate change targets.Today,the United Kingdom and Franc
282、e both face serious challenges in their efforts to reduce carbon emissions and fight climate change.This goes hand in hand with ensuring energy security and maintaining a competi-tive energy market that remains affordable for consumers.While energy insecurity might pose an equal threat on both sides
283、 of the Channel,it remains uncertain whether these divergences in opinion on energy risks will continue,with increasing emphasis placed on energy security.2nd biggest risk for U.K.respondents is energy,reflecting the countrys vulnerability and dependence on imported energy8-British energy security s
284、trategy,HM Government,7 April 2022.AXA X USBEK&RICA35In the U.S.,cyber threats are on the radarTechnology is becoming more deeply inte-grated into various aspects of daily life and business processes.One visible example of this is the digitalization of information through connected devices.This expo
285、ses individuals and businesses alike to an increa-sing number of threats and presents security challenges for governments.Among Americans(37%),cyber threats are considered the third most important risk after climate change and pandemics.Additionally,respondents in the United States appear very much
286、aware of cybersecurity risks(53%ver-sus 39%in Japan).This high level of aware-ness reflects a widespread recognition of the multifaceted nature of cyber risks and their potential to affect all layers of society.They not only impact Americans at an individual level,but also have deep implications for
287、 the government,companies,and other entities that manage the nations infrastructure.Results demonstrate that U.S.respondents are comparatively much more concerned about cybersecurity than about geopolitical instability(third versus eighth risk out of 10).Regardless of variations across states,the Un
288、ited States economy is very much driven by small businesses,and given that 60%of small businesses that suffer a cyberattack go bankrupt within six months9,it is no sur-prise that cyber threats like ransomware tend to be taken very seriously.The fact that U.S.respondents feel exposed to cyber threats
289、 is also reflected in most U.S.financial stability surveys,in which cyberattacks typically rank among the top risks10.In addition to the cyber risks posed to indi-viduals and companies,the threat of attacks 9-The Need for Greater Focus on the Cybersecurity Challen-ges Facing Small and Midsize Busine
290、sses,US Securities and Exchange Commission,19 October 2015.10-DTCC 2021 Systemic Risk Barometer Survey.Risk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202336AXA X USBEK&RICAagainst critical infrastructure is ever more present11.Compared with other countries,American respondents tend to perceive cyber
291、risks as a rapidly growing threat(45%versus 22%in Japan).The rise of cyber anxiety that has occurred in the U.S.over the past year has very likely been influenced by the recent media coverage of Russian cyberattacks on essential Ukrainian services and attempts to secure footholds in critical infrast
292、ruc-ture in Ukraine(government,financial,and energy)12.The scope of some of these attacks has been severe,with some causing wides-pread power outages across Ukraine.There is also no doubt that the current energy cri-sis sheds light on cyber vulnerabilities and hints at what cybersecurity might look
293、like in the future.In this context,cyber threats will continue to present serious challenges for government agencies and highlight the need to protect critical sectors such as energy and transport,in which disruptions can have serious consequences.In addition to the risk posed to infrastruc-ture,cyb
294、er threats can also be understood through the prism of information13.Foreign interference,such as cyberattacks by govern-ment-affiliated players and non-state players,is a prime example of that.While foreign manipulation of information and attempts to influence domestic politics for ideologi-cal and
295、 geopolitical motives primarily target governments,these efforts nonetheless affect citizens.The high levels of cyber concern among U.S.respondents might also result from the increased media coverage of threats posed to election infrastructure,particularly noticeable during the 201614 and 2020 feder
296、al elections15.This awareness reflects a sense of vulnerabi-lity and desire for a comprehensive approach to cyber risks,which would focus on the security of critical infrastructure,as well as disinformation and geopolitics.Only through continuous coordination in the international community and among
297、 diverse stakeholders(including governments,private industry,civil society,academia,and journalists)can the effects of these growing threats on the U.S.economy and national security be mitigated.Focus on demographicsPerceptions of the importance of cybersecurity vary significantly wit-hin the United
298、 States.Young Ameri-cans are generally less likely to worry about cybersecurity just 8%of U.S.respondents who consider cyber risks a priority are under 25.However,this changes as soon as respondents enter the workforce:individuals from ages 25 to 34 are roughly twice as likely to find cyber risks wo
299、rrying(18%).Older generations tend to have more pronounced negative views of cyber risks,with respondents above their mid-60s reporting high levels of cyber-related concerns(29%).With regards to gender,female respon-dents are notably more likely to worry about cybersecurity than male res-pondents(61
300、%versus 39%).45%of American respondents tend to perceive cyber risks as a rapidly growing threat(versus 22%in Japan)11-Federal Bureau of Inves-tigation(FBI),Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,Office of the Director of National Intelligence,and National Security Agency,Joint Statement,5
301、 January 2021.12-Special Report:Ukraine an Overview of Russias cybe-rattack activity in Ukraine,Microsoft,27 April 2022.13-In fact,“new security threats,”defined as“evolving terror attacks,cyber warfare and fake news”are the fourth biggest risk after“cyberse-curity threats,”according to American res
302、pondents.14-i.e.,the 2016 Democratic National Committee data leak.15-Foreign Threats to the 2020 U.S.Federal Elections,National Intelligence Council,10 March 2021.AXA X USBEK&RICA37InterviewTension and geopolitical conflicts:Building a bridge over troubled waterRussias invasion of Ukraine has shaken
303、 the world in many ways,fostering a multifaceted crisis,from tension in the East China Sea to skyrocketing energy prices and threats of famine in developing countries.Do you feel like were living in a new era of systemic risk,where risks are more and more intertwined with one another?Guillaume Capel
304、le I couldnt say whether risks are now more intertwined than they were five,ten,or even a hundred years ago.However,I feel like now we tend to better identify the connections between these different risks,probably because they are more visible.For example,we can see how the war in Ukraine,a geopolit
305、ical conflict,has created an energy cri-sis and a refugee crisis.On the other hand,it is likely that climate change and diminishing fos-sil fuel supplies will generate new types of war in the future,as countries become frightened of a lack of key resources and start conflicts in order to secure acce
306、ss to them.Daria Krivonos I feel like this interrelation between extreme weather events,wars,and the movement of people is the key to predic-ting and understanding future crises.This will be particularly obvious as the consequences of climate change continue to unfold.Many individuals will have to f
307、lee their countries or even their continents to find a more suitable place to live because of harsher climate condi-tions,but also potential wars breaking out as In 2022,war returned to Europe for the first time since the early 1990s,causing worldwide disruptions,while the specter of a potential Chi
308、nese invasion of Taiwan loomed as more likely than ever.After two years of headlines focused on the pan-demic and health issues,geopolitics has come back with a vengeance.So too has contemplation and discussion of the geopolitical risks and challenges we will face in the years to come.We asked two e
309、xperts for their views.A trained macro-economist,Daria Krivonos is the CEO of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies,an independent think tank which informs organizations and decision makers about long-term trends.Guillaume Capelle is the co-founder of SINGA,an organization that helps migrants
310、,refugees,and asylum seekers find resources,connect with locals,and start their own businesses.Daria KrivonosGuillaume CapelleRisk:A mosaic of perceptions Foresight Report 202338AXA X USBEK&RICAAXA X USBEK&RICA“I do believe that short-termism is the biggest threat to our ability to mitigate risks.”D
311、aria Krivonospeople fight over resources.That could create a refugee crisis and a resulting increase in geo-political tension.A climate crisis can therefore easily turn into a healthcare or geopolitical crisis.This could prove even more serious if the only institution we have in place for the whole
312、world right now(despite its limitations),the UN,keeps being paralyzed by vetoes and non-votes.G.C.Another difficulty is that an issue like migration is often misrepresented and misunderstood.For example,when we think about migrants(and this is definitely influenced by the media)the image that comes
313、to mind is usually a young man,either risking his life to cross the Mediterranean or generating insecurity in his new country of residence,depending on where you stand politically.Yet,in a country like France,most migrants are women,and a third are children.We dont have an accurate vision of who mig
314、rants really are,so our capacity to help them is hampered.We also encounter misconceptions when assessing the environmental impact of migra-tions.The carbon footprint of a refugee fleeing his country at war is extremely low,much lower than a tourists,not to mention a business tra-velers.The most dan
315、gerous type of migration is therefore economic migration,for tourism or for business.And yet that topic is barely ever mentioned.Your organizations were both founded with the goal of overcoming our short-term bias,instead looking further ahead.In your opinion,how can we prepare better for the future
316、?D.K.I do believe that short-termism is the biggest threat to our ability to mitigate risks.One solu-tion could be,as Finland did,to legally force governments to take into account the long-term impact of their policies.Will this new mea-sure that were about to pass still be a good idea 10 years from
317、 now?Have we future-tested its propositions?These are the questions that decision makers need to be forced to ask them-selves.G.C.When we started SINGA,helping refugees meant taking care of their basic needs,which could mean finding food,dealing with admi-nistrative paperwork,or finding them a stabl
318、e housing situation.We took another approach and chose to focus on the top of Maslows hie-rarchy of needs,helping refugees connect with locals to improve their social life,or start their own businesses to not only secure a stable source of income,but also a job that fulfills their aspirations and co
319、ntributes to their perso-nal growth.Now,of course,this wont magically solve their most urgent problems,but when a person is given the chance to work and create their own solutions,all of a sudden,all these new paths that were once invisible start opening up and their basic needs can be met with fewe
320、r resources.For example,we mixed both French and refugee entrepreneurs in our incubator,and as the refugees started to talk about their challen-ging housing situation,how they had been living on a friends couch for the last six months and so forth,this gave rise to a project,Cara-col,which is a co-l
321、iving solution for individuals going through hardship.It shows that adopting a long-term mindset can go hand in hand with solving the most urgent issues.After WWII,the worlds most powerful countries came together and created the UN.Despite its flaws,the institution was a fairly successful attempt to
322、 create a global forum where world problems could be discussed.How can our governments and worldwide organizations evolve to tackle this new era of systemic risks?D.K.We are indeed looking at a crack in history right now,and its about time that we restructured how we work together to solve global is
323、sues.The last time we restructured the world,after WWII,very few players were in charge.They had AXA X USBEK&RICA39AXA X USBEK&RICAwon the war and were the wealthiest and most powerful countries at that time.This cannot be the case anymore,and we have to take the whole world into account.We have to
324、create something like the Senate in Star Wars,where the whole universe meets and discusses com-mon issues!That being said,Im a huge believer in diplo-macy.Thats why,in my opinion,we should be careful before chopping off the arms and legs of the UN,no matter how imperfect it is,because it took such a
325、 huge effort to get there in the first place.That doesnt mean we cant adapt it to the 21st century.Should some countries still hold a veto right?Should there still be a secu-rity council?These questions are worth asking.G.C.I share your view that the UN is a great,but imperfect,institution that coul
326、d be updated to deal with contemporary challenges.If I had one desire,it would be for an international organization like the UN to bypass nation states and be directly in touch with individuals who need help,so that when a conflict erupts,like in Ukraine,those who are forced to relocate abroad,as we
327、ll as the people who host them and provide them with different services,can all benefit from a basic income.This would create a very powerful feeling of belonging to mankind as a whole.This might seem paradoxical,but I believe that the best scale to act on major worldwide issues like migration and c
328、limate change is locally.We should therefore do with diplomacy what Wikipedia has done with the encyclopedia,i.e.provide local communities and individuals with the right resources so that they can become players for change.D.K.On this matter,and to finish with a provocative question,I personally won
329、der whether well still have nation states in the future.They are quite a recent and artificial construction,and today there are already some gigantic corpora-tions that are more powerful than most nation states.Furthermore,a growing number of us tend to go study and then work abroad,learn another la
330、nguage,which challenges the(sometimes fictional)homogeneous culture on which the nation state was built.G.C.Well always need some level of local govern-ment to fix a sidewalk or build a new bridge,for example,but I also wonder whether the nation state will survive the great transforma-tion were goin
331、g through,as climate change provides humanity with a common destiny,as the internet connects individuals like never before,meaning that your identity and sense of community goes well beyond whats written on your passport.D.K.This poses two big questions.First,if nation states no longer exist,who wil
332、l work together in international institutions to solve global pro-blems?Secondly,who will fulfill the traditional role of the nation states,which have historically protected us against enemies and taken care of our health?To conclude,I also believe that the way we think about global risk will have t
333、o go beyond earth,as space is the next frontier.Several countries and companies are currently trying to go back to the Moon,and yet space regu-lations are totally outdated.And then there is Starlink!A few years ago,who could have pre-dicted that an eccentric billionaire would help a country at war push back against its aggressor by providing it with a satellite connection when its internet infrast