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1、CBRE RESEARCHEconomic UpdateQ1 2023PUGET SOUNDEconomic Update2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateSummaryThe Puget Sound region continued to gain jobs during Q1 of 2023,mainly driven by the Hospitality,Trade/Transport and Business Services sectors.Despite con
2、tinued challenges to underwriting deals and financing business operations amidst hawkish monetary policy,overall consumer spending improved and equity markets again generated positive returns during the quarter.With respect to job postings,however,the Puget Sound region ended Q1 with 7%fewer posting
3、s than pre-pandemic levels on a seasonally adjusted basis.1While nationwide manufacturer confidence remained flat in Q1,consumer sentiment improved by more than 2%and the consumer savings rate remained well below the five-year average of 10%.Though household balance sheets remain relatively healthy
4、by historical standards,continued uncertainty remains a theme in 2023 as borrowing rates remain elevated and many large companies make provisions for slowedeconomicgrowth in 2023.Among the top 25 employers job postings,the Technology sectors share remained muted during the quarter at 4%.Meanwhile,th
5、e shares of job postings by the Government/Non-Profit sector and Aerospace sector doubled to 14%and 25%,respectively.Openings in the Aerospace sector were again led by Blue Origin,Raytheon and Boeing.Healthcares share moderated from 55%to 45%,while Retails share declined from 18%to 5%.Key declines i
6、n hiring activity by PetSmart,Walmart/Sams Club and Pizza Hut led to the decline in the Retail sectors share in Q1.1Indeed Hiring Lab,April 2023.Current EmploymentThe Seattle metro area shed 5,000 jobs in Q1 of 2023The regions job base is 2.0%larger than it was pre-pandemicSeattles 3.2%unemployment
7、rate is in line with peer metros and historically very low Consumer SpendingTotal spending in Seattle slightly dipped in Q1,but remained 5.7%above pre-COVID levelsRetail spending is almost 16%lower than pre-pandemic levels,Entertainment spending improved in Q1 and is within 9%of pre-pandemic levelsR
8、egional Port ActivityRegional port activity was down 9%quarter-over-quarterCompared to Q1 of 2022,total TEU volumes dropped 6%in Q1Other Economic IndicatorsInflation expectations inched up from 4.4%to 4.6%Consumer savings rates increased from 3.4%to 5.1%Consumer sentiment improved again,from 60%to 6
9、2%3CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateSeattle Metro vs.Nationwide EconomyContinued outperformance is forecasted in 2023 and beyond.Source:BEA,Oxford Economics,CBRE Research,2023.9002002220232024202520262019-2026 GDP(Relative to 2019 Lev
10、els)Seattle MetroU.S.4CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateSeattle Metro Total Employment Seattle metro had 42,000 more jobs going into April 2023 than it had pre-pandemic.Source:FRED,CBRE Research,2023.1,7001,7501,8001,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,1002,1502,20020
11、20Mar2020Jun2020Sep2020Dec2021Mar2021Jun2021Sep2021Dec2022Mar2022Jun2022Sep2022Dec2023MarTotal Jobs (Thousands)5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateSeattle Metro Employment Change by SectorThrough Q1 2023,four sectors lost jobs since the pandemic began.Busine
12、ss Services jobs surged by almost 47,000.Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,2023.13.0%8.5%5.1%2.1%0.1%-0.3%-0.7%-1.8%-9.0%1.1%0.5%-2.2%1.1%-0.8%-1.0%3.2%0.1%1.3%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Bus.ServicesInformationConstructionTrade/TransportWholesaleFinancialServicesHospitalityRetailManufact
13、uringPercentage Change in EmploymentVs Feb 2020Quarterly Change6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update4.3%3.8%3.4%3.2%2.6%3.1%2.6%2.7%2.6%2.7%2.1%4.6%4.4%3.6%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.4%2.7%3.3%2.6%2.2%0%1%2%3%4%5%Los AngelesHoustonPortlandSan DiegoAustinSeattleSan Francis
14、coDenverSan JoseTampaMiamiUnemployment Rate Pre-PandemicQ1 2023Seattle Metro Total Employment Seattle metros unemployment through Q1 remained low,at 3.2%Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,2023.7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update28.7%13.4%10
15、.7%8.5%8.1%6.5%-1.3%-1.4%-7.8%-0.8%-1.5%-3.0%0.5%0.4%-2.0%-2.3%-1.9%-1.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%AustinSan FranciscoTampaSeattlePortlandMiamiDenverSan JoseSan DiegoPercentage Change in EmploymentVs Feb 2020Quarterly ChangeEmployment Changes by Metro Areas-InformationDespite slowe
16、d hiring and layoffs of late,Seattle metro has added 11,255 information jobs since the start of the pandemic.Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,2023.8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update14.7%7.5%6.6%5.9%5.2%2.6%-0.6%-1.0%-4.3%-10.4%1.8%0.6%-0
17、.9%-0.8%0.5%2.4%-0.1%-0.9%0.0%1.3%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AustinSan FranciscoTampaSan JoseMiamiDenverSan DiegoPortlandLos AngelesSeattlePercentage Change in EmploymentVs Feb 2020Quarterly ChangeEmployment Changes by Metro Areas-ManufacturingSeattle metro has lost around 19,000 manufacturing jobs since
18、the start of the pandemicSource:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,2023.9CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update13.5%11.3%11.2%2.0%-0.2%-0.6%-1.1%-2.0%-4.1%-0.2%-0.4%0.2%-0.2%3.0%-1.0%0.0%-3.5%-1.5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AustinTampaMiamiPortlandSan DiegoSeat
19、tleSan FranciscoDenverSan JosePercentage Change in EmploymentVs Feb 2020Quarterly ChangeEmployment Changes by Metro Areas Financial ServicesSeattle metro has shed 600 financial services jobs since early-2020Source:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,CBRE Research,2023.10CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intell
20、igent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateKing County Job Openings by CompanyAmong the 25 most active employers,Aerospace&Healthcare openings overshadowed the Tech sector in Q1 2023Source:Washington State ESD,CBRE Research,2023.Healthcare45%Aerospace25%Government/Non-Profit14%Telecom5%Retail5%Tech4
21、%ManufacturingEmployerIndustryOpeningsBlue OriginAerospace604University of WashingtonGovernment/Non-Profit446Providence SwedishHealthcare673RaytheonAerospace315The Boeing CompanyAerospace287T-Mobile USATelecom270EvergreenhealthHealthcare242AmazonTech220King CountyGovernment/Non-Profit212Seattle Chil
22、drensHealthcare209St.Jude MedicalHealthcare181SpaceXAerospace174AlbertsonsRetail166Fred HutchinsonHealthcare165Aya HealthcareHealthcare162OptumHealthcare148City SeattleGovernment/Non-Profit144Harborview Medical CenterHealthcare143PaccarManufacturing142Virginia Mason Medical CenterHealthcare136Multic
23、are HealthHealthcare134UnitedHealth GroupHealthcare126ProvidenceHealthcare109Kaiser PermanenteHealthcare100PetSmartRetail91CBRE RESEARCHConsumer SpendingPUGET SOUND12CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update17.2%16.8%13.3%11.7%11.4%10.9%8.8%7.5%5.7%3.8%3.4%0.3%-2.
24、9%-10%0%10%20%TampaSalt LakeCityHoustonDallasNew YorkCityMiamiAustinPortlandSeattleSan JoseSan Diego Los AngelesSanFranciscoChange in Total Consumer Spending Total Consumer Spending (February 2023 vs February 2020)Total Seattle area spending continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels.Source:Opportunity
25、 Insights,CBRE Research,2023.13CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update24.6%13.1%12.9%6.2%0.8%-3.9%-5.0%-8.6%-8.8%-11.1%-11.2%-15.8%-18.7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%San JoseMiamiTampaHoustonDallasPortlandNew YorkCityAustinSan DiegoSalt LakeCityLos AngelesS
26、eattleSanFranciscoChange in Retail Spending Retail Spending (February 2023 vs February 2020)Retail spending remains lower than pre-pandemic levels,however.Source:Opportunity Insights,CBRE Research,2023.14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic Update33.6%21.9%20.3%10.6
27、%9.2%7.7%4.8%-5.5%-6.3%-8.9%-9.6%-10.8%-16.6%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%San JoseHoustonMiamiSan DiegoSalt LakeCityDallasTampaLos AngelesAustinNew YorkCitySeattlePortlandSanFranciscoChange in Entertainment SpendingEntertainment Spending (February 2023 vs February 2020)Seattle area entertainment spending d
28、ipped below pre-pandemic levels in the summer of 2022.Source:Opportunity Insights,CBRE Research,2023.CBRE RESEARCHOther Economic IndicatorsPUGET SOUND16CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdatePort Activity at Northwest Seaport AllianceTEU container traffic dipped
29、 at the end of 2022,but recovered some in Q1 2023.Source:Northwest Seaport Alliance,CBRE Research 2023.26424972633303026254338522402602803003203403602020Jan2020Jul2021Jan2021Jul2022Jan2022Jul2023JanTotal Monthly TEUs(Thousands)17CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC
30、.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateUnited States Inflation ExpectationsExpectations improved from 4.4%to 3.6%during Q1Source:University of Michigan,CBRE Research,2023.2.4%2.1%3.2%3.1%2.6%2.8%3.3%3.1%4.6%4.2%4.7%4.6%4.9%4.9%5.4%4.8%5.0%3.9%4.1%3.6%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Feb-20Jul-20Dec-20May-21
31、Oct-21Mar-22Aug-22Jan-23Inflation Expectation Index18CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateUnited States Consumer SavingsSavings rates remain well below the five-year average of 10%Source:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,CBRE Research,2023.8.3%13.1%33.8%24.8%19.
32、3%13.0%20.0%13.4%26.3%9.3%7.3%7.5%2.7%2.4%3.4%5.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Feb-20Jul-20Dec-20May-21Oct-21Mar-22Aug-22Jan-23Consumer Savings Rate19CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateUnited States Consumer SentimentNationwide sentiment slightly declined in Q1Sour
33、ce:University of Michigan,CBRE Research,2023.82778677576762406080100Feb-20Jul-20Dec-20May-21Oct-21Mar-22Aug-22Jan-23Consumer Sentiment Index20CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentPuget Sound Economic UpdateUnited States Manufacturer Confidence Indicators
34、 SurveyManufacturer confidence remained relatively flat in Q1Source:Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,CBRE Research,2023.99.098.1100.0100.8102.1101.5101.7100.899.799.098.9949698100102104Feb-20Jul-20Dec-20May-21Oct-21Mar-22Aug-22Jan-23Manufacturer Confidence Indicators Survey Cop
35、yright 2023.All rights reserved.This report has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are subject to significant uncer
36、tainties and contingencies,many of which are beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have differentopinions,projections and analyses,and actual market conditions in the futu
37、re may cause CBREs current views to later be incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs securities or of the perfor
38、mance of any other companys securities.You should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims against CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.Mountain-Northwest RegionCoo BarimaniAssociate Director CBRE RContacts