《AC Ventures & AEML:2023印尼电动汽车行业报告(英文版)(46页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《AC Ventures & AEML:2023印尼电动汽车行业报告(英文版)(46页).pdf(46页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookSUPERCHARGING TOMORROWS MOBILITYJULY 20232Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookAs Indonesias Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs,I am pleased to receive this report from AC Ventures and the Indonesian Electric Mobility Ecosystem Association(AEML)
2、.It provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential growth trajectory of the electric vehicle(EV)sector in our nation.The transition to electric mobility represents a strategic national decision with dual objectives:promoting a sustainable future and stimulating significant economic growth.Given
3、our resource abundance and strategic location,Indonesia has a unique opportunity to emerge as a central player in the global EV market.This objective is a long-term commitment that extends for decades to come.Climate change demands immediate,decisive action.The introduction and adoption of EVs will
4、allow Indonesia to reduce carbon emissions substantially,contribute to global sustainability efforts,and generate significant economic returns.An integral part of this transition is the development of a comprehensive EV ecosystem,which cannot be achieved overnight.It demands a holistic and sustainab
5、le approach,requiring continuous commitment from the public and private sectors to ensure the proper development of the industry.Our advantage as the worlds leading nickel producer,a critical element in lithium-ion batteries,amplifies our potential to contribute significantly to the global EV batter
6、y supply chain.This represents a robust investment opportunity for industry stakeholders.With the rise in demand for EVs,particularly from the expanding middle class,the Indonesian government is taking proactive measures.We are shaping policy frameworks that enhance the quality and affordability of
7、EVs,thereby promoting their adoption.A pivotal aspect of our strategy is Presidential Regulation No.55 signed in 2019,outlining the governments commitment to support the EV industry.Electrifying Indonesia:A Vision for Sustainability and Prosperity3Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookWe have set targe
8、ts to have 13 million electric motorbikes and 2 million electric cars on our roads by 2030.Our renewable energy goals are ambitious,aiming to increase the contribution of renewables to 23%of the countrys energy by 2025,up from about 9%in mid-2020.By 2056,we plan to complete a broader nationwide ener
9、gy transition.These initiatives align with our commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce our emissions by 32%by 2030 and achieve a net-zero emissions goal by 2060 or earlier.Recognizing the challenges ahead,we acknowledge the importance of nurturing the EV ecosystem holistically.Major breakthro
10、ughs,such as the investment in a new aluminum industry in East Java,signify the development of the supporting ecosystem crucial for the sustainability of EVs.This report by AC Ventures and AEML serves as a tool to deepen our understanding of the EV sector.It outlines the current state and future dir
11、ection of the industry,including growth trajectory,technological trends,policy impacts,and potential obstacles.This report may serve as a strategic guide,providing insights to investors,businesses,policymakers,and the public.The information herein may help us adapt our strategies,maximize opportunit
12、ies,and manage risks.The imminent EV revolution requires a collective effort.This report can potentially aid collaboration,strategic decision-making,and informed investments in our long-term journey toward an electrified future.Luhut Binsar PandjaitanCoordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment
13、Affairs,Indonesia“Electric vehicles are important because they can reduce our dependency on imported energy and reduce emissions.”4Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookBased on the enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution document,transportation is considered a part of the energy sector.This sector
14、 emphasizes energy conservation and the utilization of new and renewable energy in controlling greenhouse gas emissions.In order to reach the goal outlined above,the Ministry of Transportation has implemented a financial incentive policy.This policy waives certain fees for the KBLBB type test,the KB
15、LBB Type Test Certificate,and for the conversion of motorized vehicles.Specifically,the costs for the Type Test Certificate and Certificate Type Test Registration have been reduced to IDR 0.Through the instructions of the Ministry of Transportation concerning the implementation and acceleration of u
16、sing battery-based electric motorized vehicles,we are putting effort into promoting and implementing the roadmap for transitioning operational service vehicles from electric motorized vehicles to battery-based electric motorized vehicles.Regarding vehicle conversion,the total number of motorcycles c
17、onverted,as per the Type Test Certificate and the Type Test Registration published as of May 12,2023,can be confirmed as 178 units.At present,we have 25 certified and ten non-certified workshops that specialize in motorcycle conversions.We are actively encouraging the growth of both these categories
18、,as we aim to increase the overall number of conversion workshops for motorcycles and other vehicles.As of June 21,2023,there are 70,242 electric vehicles in Indonesia.Two-wheeled vehicles account for the majority of these,with 53,734 units,followed by four-wheeled vehicles with 16,102 units.Three-w
19、heeled vehicles number 316 units,buses 80 units,and goods vehicles ten units.Currently,the Ministry of Transportation is finalizing the revision of a regulation concerning the conversion ofSpark of Change:Redefining Transportation for a Thriving Nation5Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlookelectric mot
20、orcycles into battery-based electric motorcycles.This is to support the acceleration of type test services for converted motorcycles.In the future,conversion workshops will be divided into two clusters,and the implementation of type testing will not only be conducted at the roadworthiness testing an
21、d motor vehicle certification center but also at all testing locations in Indonesia private testing,public service agencies,and conversion workshops that have been accredited.To establish an electric vehicle ecosystem in Indonesia,synergy and collaboration between the government,automotive industry
22、players,and the community are essential.The government hopes that stimulating the use of electric vehicles will increase energy efficiency and energy conservation in the transportation sector,while also improving air quality and,most importantly,reducing our dependence on imported fuel.I would like
23、to express my appreciation to AC Ventures and AEML for supporting the governments program to improve the battery-based electric motor vehicle ecosystem in Indonesia.Budi Karya SumadiMinister of Transportation,Indonesia“To establish an EV ecosystem in Indonesia,synergy and collaboration between the g
24、overnment,automotive industry players,and the community are essential.”6Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook6As Minister of Industry,I am pleased with this comprehensive report on the emergent and dynamic landscape of the Indonesian electric vehicle(EV)industry.It demonstrates our nations unwavering
25、dedication to the development of environmentally favorable technology and serves as a road map to our progression toward lower emissions and sustainable development.In addition,it highlights the innovators and investors responsible for our forward momentum.In an effort to reduce emissions,our govern
26、ment promotes the use of electric vehicles.Recognizing that incentive programs play a significant role in fostering green innovation,we have implemented a strategy that prioritizes benefits based on emission levels rather than conventional engine capacity.The distinction between these initiatives an
27、d a carbon tax exemplifies our considerate approach to sustainable development.On the basis of the accomplishments of the Low-Cost Green Car(LCGC)program,we are incorporating valuable lessons and newly acquired knowledge into our evolving policies.Simultaneously,we are implementing incentives for do
28、mestically manufactured electric vehicles with a local component level exceeding 40%,with the intent of bolstering innovation and entrepreneurship in Indonesia.Our vision for electric mobility is firmly established at the intersection of technology and imagination.Multiple automakers contribute to o
29、ur comprehension of market dynamics and how to develop cutting-edge technology to meet the escalating demand for green transportation through the use of distinctive strategies and methodologies.While competition in the sector promotes economic development,it also accelerates our collective efforts t
30、o reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Shifting Gears:The Future of the Green Revolution7Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookThis imminent EV shift represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Indonesia to cultivate a thriving domestic market,which is far from being a straightforward manufacturing en
31、deavor.It encourages local industries to innovate and develop scalable EV technology.Indonesia has the potential for long-term growth,aided by innovative research and development,despite difficulties and competition.We must capitalize on this opportunity.We must not forget our commitment to the inte
32、rnational community to attain net-zero emissions by 2060.This broader perspective guides us as we structure our EV ecosystem,recognizing its potential to generate employment opportunities in addition to economic value.Understanding the EV industry is not just a matter of academic interest;its an inv
33、estment necessity.Beyond the obstacles of traffic and emissions,the sectors growth and job creation offer significant economic benefits.With our climate commitments and economic objectives in sight,the EV industry represents an opportunity that we cannot afford to pass up.The increasing sales of ele
34、ctric vehicles already indicate the publics readiness to implement clean transportation.The Indonesian EV market is expected to develop at a CAGR of 58.5%between 2023 and 2030,according to projections.This report by AC Ventures and AEML outlines a strategic plan for advancing Indonesias electric veh
35、icle(EV)industry.It emphasizes fostering innovation and sustainability while augmenting the quality of life for all Indonesians.Agus Gumiwang KartasasmitaMinister of Industry,Indonesia“The growth of electric vehicle(EV)sales indicates public readiness in Indonesia,with the electric mobility market h
36、aving the potential to develop at a CAGR of 58.5%through 2030.”8Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesia is committed to addressing climate change by transitioning its energy landscape to be powered by more sustainable sources.Achieving Indonesias target of net zero emissions by 2060,or sooner,i
37、s no easy feat.We need to prioritize the decarbonization of industries that contribute the most emissions.Mobility is a significant contributor to carbon emissions in Indonesia.Therefore,electrifying Indonesias transport network by establishing a sustainable electric mobility industry is a critical
38、part of the overall net zero emissions goal.Given the multifaceted nature of this emerging industry and the presence of strong incumbent players,its crucial to foster collaborative efforts among key players in the electric vehicle(EV)ecosystem.This should be supported by a comprehensive regulatory e
39、nvironment.In executing the mandate set out by President Jokowi in Perpres no.55/2019,Inpres no.7/2022,and Permen ESDM no.1/2023,Indonesias state-owned enterprises are implementing various strategic efforts to build an end-to-end,integrated EV ecosystem.Pertamina,along with its sub-holding company,P
40、ertamina New&Renewable Energy,is spearheading various strategic efforts in EV ecosystem development,particularly in battery packing,infrastructure,and battery-as-a-service.PLN,the nations sole electricity provider,is also establishing a network of swapping and charging stations.AEML is a forum and a
41、 non-profit organization that acts as the industry body,thought leader,and public policy advocate for the EV ecosystem.AEML engages,sustains,and grows the EV ecosystem through partnerships with vehicle brand owners,component The Mission to Catalyze Indonesias EV Ecosystem9Indonesias Electric Vehicle
42、 Outlooksuppliers,battery providers,and infrastructure players.AEML values collaborative efforts,sharing best practices,and benchmarking with other countries.We partner with the government of Indonesia,international organizations,key actors in the EV ecosystem,as well as other associations,to reach
43、out to more people and promote a positive campaign for EVs.Our mission to electrify mobility in Indonesia is based on a calling to protect the environment by reducing pollution for future generations.AEML is committed to supporting the adoption of EVs and fostering the creation of a globally competi
44、tive EV ecosystem.Dannif Utojo DanusaputroAEML Chairman“Our mission to electrify mobility in Indonesia is based on a calling to protect the environment by reducing pollution for future generations.”11Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesias US$20B+opportunity:Electric mobility drives energy tra
45、nsition.Supply-chain challenges,increasing commodity costsRise in pro-domestic manufacturing targets and regulationGrowing consumer EV demand and consumer subsidies by government Growing e-2W demand,given lower cost and denser urbanization in SEACommercial operators building onsite charging to attra
46、ct trafficPotential emergence for end-of-life battery mgmt.market/recyclingRising battery/component costs(e.g.,lithium)Pressure on dealer margins due to higher EV costs and rise of online OEM sales channelsUncertain/changing government regulationsReduced aftersales care required for EVs vs.ICEVehicl
47、e sales and dealershipService,maintenance and battery recycling3Charging infrastructure3-4.55-8%212.5-1510-12%21-21 depends on OEM partnership,agreements,discounts,etc.6-10%2-3Profitability has yet to be proven in US markets0.5-1.54-8%2Cell manufacturing and battery mgmt.systemAuto R&D and manufactu
48、ringIndicative EBITHeadwindsTailwindsEstimated Indonesiamarket size($B,2030)OVERVIEW12Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookSources:Bain Temasek Green Economy Report,Team analysisNote:2W refers to two-wheelers(e.g.,motorbike)and 4W refers to four-wheelers(e.g.,car);(1)Does not include leasing/secondhan
49、d market;(2)Based on global players;(3)Battery recycling industry not expected to be sizeable by 2030 since EV industry is still nascent in SEA and the average battery life is 10 yearsAttractive Opportunistically attractive NascentRaw material advantage(rich in nickel,cobalt,and other rare earth met
50、als)Limitedopportunity for new player todeal major 4W brands,EV-only pure-plays arerareSmaller opportunity as hardware/R&D limited in SEAOpportunity for local corporate to scale and operate,smaller opportunity for battery swapping,dominated by OEMsVery early,as EV adoption is driven by lower servici
51、ng needs and costs compared to ICE vehicles and limited battery supply.Potential to scale e-2Ws manufacturing with foreignand local OEMsOverall assessment for IndonesiaAdoption readinessRegulatory supportRoom for local playerScalabilityVehicle sales and dealershipService,maintenance and battery recy
52、cling3Charging infrastructureCell manufacturing and battery mgmt.systemAuto R&D and manufacturingOpportunity for 2Ws manufacturer to partner with fleet companies(e.g.,ride-hailing)to develop EV ecosystemASSESSMENT13Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesia has taken significant steps in recent ye
53、ars to establish a strong foundation for a prosperous electric vehicle industry.Key Events Timeline in Indonesias Electric Vehicle EcosystemGrab launches EV fleet in Jakarta&Bali.2022Jan 2020MoU signed with LG Chemicals for a US$9.8B investment in battery production.Dec 202020021The Minis
54、ter of State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs)encouraged the use of EVs by the government and its businesses.Jan 2019PLN launches first electric charging station in Indonesia.2023New EV regulations cover subsidies,road restriction bypass,and improved electricity prices.The General Plan of National Energy(RUEN
55、)is established.TransJakarta launches trial of electric busses,first e-taxi fleet by Bluebird.Presidential Regulation No.55 is signed on the promotion of battery-powered road vehicles,outlining fiscal and non-fiscal incentives.The Ministry of Industry(MoI)issues a new regulation on the production an
56、d testing of EVs.MoI increases EV ambitions,creates Indonesia Battery Corporation(IBC).14Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookElectric minibuses(angkots)and other forms of small public transportationPrivate electric two-wheel vehiclesElectric busesElectric taxisPrivate electric carsREADY FOR SCALABLE
57、DEPLOYMENTEARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENTSources:IESR,Press SearchCorporate-supported motorcycles,such as those used for deliveriesCurrent readiness and priority status of EV segments in the Indonesian market:15Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookTwo national electric vehicle production targets exist,but
58、 the lack of a unified governing body causes implementation problems.Sources:RUEN,KEMENPERIN,AHK2019 General Plan of National Energy(RUEN)12Ministry of Industry Plan for 2020/21Target of1.8 millionbattery electric bikes(BEVs)by 2025Target of2,200battery electric vehicles(BEVs)by 2025Target of711,000
59、hybrid cars by 2025Target of2.1 millionbattery electric bikes(BEVs)by 2025Target of100%electric vehicle(EV)sales by 2040Target of400,000battery electric vehicles(BEVs)by 2025Target of29.3%reduction in greenhouse emissions by 203016Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesias current EV penetration
60、level is similar to Chinas ten years ago,indicating significant growth potential.2015 2021 Mainland ChinaIndiaTaiwanSouth KoreaUSAEuropean UnionIndonesiaVietnam1.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%0.3%0.9%1.7%0.5%15.0%19.7%8.5%7.5%4.2%16.1%9.7%0.5%0.1%0.9%0.0%0.2%1.2%Limited 2W adoptionLimited 2W adoptionLimited 2W adop
61、tionLimited 4W adoptionLimited 4W adoption2W24W1MARKETSEV Penetration1.BEV+PHEV sales of total passenger car vehicle sales2.Excluding bicyclesSources:IEA,Statista,ICCT17Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookCurrent situation Demand-side challenge Supply-side challenge Deep-dive LIMITED BSS/CHARGING NET
62、WORKLocal ecosystems need to address several challenges to achieve the governments EV growth plansSources:Stakeholder Interviews,BCG AnalysisLIMITED LOCAL PRODUCTIONLOW DEMANDHigher costs(upfront incl.financing&total cost of ownership)13Limited investment in BSS/charging infra3High capital investmen
63、t for BSS/charging infra4High capital investment for new EV production4Limited BEV parts supply chain(e.g.,battery,e-motor)Insufficient vehicle specs2Home charging capacity constraintsNot relevant for BSS modelReliant on imports with tariffs and additional logistics costsSub-scale local production l
64、eads to higher costsBSS:Battery Swapping Station,BEV:Battery Electric Vehicle18Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookKEY PLAYERS&INFRASTRUCTUREDeveloping the electric vehicle ecosystem in Indonesia involves several key players such as state-owned enterprises Pertamina and PLN for infrastructure,and Ind
65、onesia Battery Corporation for collaborations with foreign giants like LG Chemical and CATL for battery production.Major brands like Hyundai,BYD,and Tesla dominate the 4W space,while the 2W space is fragmented with local and low-cost global original equipment manufacturers competing for market share
66、.B2B channels,such as Grab and Bluebird,have shown promising results in implementing EVs in their fleets,alongside Damri and TransJakarta.These companies are collaborating to establish a more sustainable and eco-friendly transportation system in Indonesia.As of now,there are 439 general charging sta
67、tions and 961 battery swap stations available for electric vehicles in Indonesia.These stations provide charging options for electric cars,bikes,and buses,but the infrastructure is expected to expand with the growth of the industry.PLN has set a target of building 6,316 general charging stations and
68、 14,000 battery swap stations by 2025 to facilitate the growth and adoption of electric vehicles.19Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookKey players in the Indonesian electric vehicle ecosystemSTATEPLNPertaminaLENJasamargaBPPTAgency for the study of industrial policy,climate and qualityMinistry of Stat
69、e-Owned EnterprisesMinistry of TransportMinistry of InvestmentTraffic policePublic Transport(city-owned)Ministry of Research and TechnologyMinistry of Energy and Mineral ResourcesCoordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment AffairsMinistry of Industry New tech developmentOperators of buses and
70、trams(TransJakarta,TransBandung,etc)Sole electricity distributorOil and gas,new and renewable energyElectrical productsToll road managementCoordinates investment between ministriesDevelops electrification plan and is responsible for public transportationIssues vehicle registration,licenses,and permi
71、tsProvides guidance to potential investors,assists with necessary permits and licenses to establish plantsHandles EV infrastructure such as charging stations,battery swapping stations(BSS),conversion and energy pricing20Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook Sources:ADB,Catapult,Press SearchPRIVATEBatt
72、ery ProductionIndonesia Battery Corporation(IBC)SOE that helps to develop the EV battery ecosystemCATLLG ChemInvested US$9.8Bn in battery productionInvested US$5Bn in battery production4+Wheels2 WheelsEV ProducersLeaders:Toyota,Hyundai,BYD,Mitsubishi,Honda,Tesla,VKTRLeaders:Honda,Gesits,Selis,Alva O
73、ne,ViarGrab&GojekBluebirdTaxis15k+EVs across Indonesia(GrabWheels,etc)Launched e-Taxis with BYD and TeslaDAMRIPrivate Bus OperatorsEcosystem PlayersElectrum,Swap,Volta,OyikaBattery swapping stations and EV bikes,collaborations with ride-hailing companies21Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookWe must a
74、ccelerate the construction of EV charging facilities to keep up with the increasing demand for EVsCharging stations in operationBattery swapping stations in operationAs of Q4 2022,there are 439 high-powered general charging stations available in 328 public locations for EV charging.The target is to
75、have 2,500 charging stations by 2025 and 7,000 by 2030.As of Q4 2022,there are 961 battery swap stations in Indonesia.This is well below the stated targets(4,000 by end of 2020,14,000 by 2025,and52,000 by 2030).The potential scale for battery swapping stations is hindered by the varying battery type
76、s and requirements,indicating the need for a unified infrastructure that can accommodate multiple brands.Sources:DJK,ESDM,Databoks22Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookSales&LocalizedProductionAs of Q4 2022,33,600 EVs were registered in Indonesia,with 7,600 four-wheel EVs on the roads,a significant i
77、ncrease from 230 previously.The sales growth is mainly driven by affordable Chinese companies like Wuling,as well as higher-end brands that have committed over US$3 billion for 4-wheeler manufacturing in Indonesia.Despite this growth,the target sales goal of 400,000 units by 2025 according to the Mi
78、nistry of Industry plan suggests there is still significant untapped market potential for EVs in Indonesia.The two-wheel vehicle market in Indonesia is growing rapidly.In 2020,1,947 two-wheel EVs were registered,with local production from 15 companies with a capacity of 877,000 units per year.As of
79、end-2022,there were already 26,000 2-Wheeler EVs on the road,driven by B2B usage and direct consumer purchases.The Ministry of Industrys updated plan aims to sell 750,000 units by 2025,reflecting the high demand for two-wheel vehicles in Indonesia.23Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookInvestments by
80、large,global original equipment manufacturers in 4WSignificant investments have been made for EV production in Indonesia for 2W and 4W vehiclesNumbersIn 2019,announced an investment of US$1.5B to produce EVs in West Java plantIn 2021,announced an investment of US$779M to produce hybrid and battery E
81、Vs in BekasiIn 2020,announced an investment of US$370Mto produce EVs in IndonesiaInvested US$1B from 2015-2021 for localized EV production in IndonesiaIn 2020,announced an investment of US$2Bto produce EVs in Indonesiawere registered in Indonesia as of Q4 2022.33,600 EVs24Indonesias Electric Vehicle
82、 OutlookLocal players investing in the 2W ecosystemCompanyInvestorsSources:ESDM,AISI,Katadata2W(number in units)4W(number in units)B2B partnerships have accelerated electric vehicle adoptionMost 2W EV sales today are to businesses that use them for their fleet of delivery couriers and field agentsSo
83、urces:Kompas,Indotelko,PLN,KontanGrab IndonesiaLazada LogisticsPLNSiCepat EkspresHas operated 14,000 electric vehicle fleets.The numbers accumulated since electrification started in 2019.Through its logistics unit Lazada Logistics,in collaboration with PT Smoot Motor Indonesia(Smoot)as an electric v
84、ehicle provider.Use 264 Gesits Electric Motors for operational vehicles.In collaboration with PT TFAS Energi Indonesia(TEI)in purchasing 10,000 units of Volta electric motorbikes for operational vehicles.InitiativesCompaniesThe EV paradigm in Indonesia brings opportunities to address the environment
85、,boost the economy,and embrace sustainable transportation.Soul Parking is excited to support widespread EV adoption by providing and collaborating on charging infrastructure.Together,we can drive the transition to electrification,shaping a brighter and more sustainable future for Indonesia.Kenneth D
86、armansjahCo-founder&CEO,Soul Parkingkennethsoulparking.co.id“25Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook26Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesias 2W market shows potential for an EV trend,but key gaps and needs remain.EVs are still relatively expensive compared to traditional vehicles,unless governm
87、ent subsidies or incentives are factored in.EVs still have lower range,speed,and incline capacity than similarly priced internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles,which affects their overall quality.BudgetMassPremiumPrice(in million IDR)Price gap of IDR 5-11 M between e2W and ICE in mass market segment
88、 despite still lower specsECGO-2BF-Q7Volta 401TVS DazzViar Q1Selis E-maxHonda VarioYamaha MioHonda BeatGesits G1T1800 CMAlva OneHonda PCXIDR 11 MIDR 13.2 MIDR 15.7 MIDR 14.5 MIDR 18.95 MIDR 22 MIDR 17.1 MIDR 17.6 MIDR 22.2 MIDR 28.7 MIDR 33.5 MIDR 34.9 MIDR 32.1 MLocal producers may gain more power
89、in Indonesias 2W market with the shift to EV,which has been dominated by Japanese players.Motorcycle purchases in Indonesia are heavily reliant on leasing,where Astra FIF(which has the same parent company as Honda motors)is one of the strongest playersBig 4 brands have heavy dealer networks and dist
90、ribution,allowing for heavy presence in Tier-2 and 3 citiesIn Japan,the Big 4 are teaming up on motorcycle development&testing,in addition to developing a shared swappable battery platform for their e-motorbikesJapanese players are moving slow in EV adoption due to lack of expertise and fear of losi
91、ng market share.Local producers have the advantage of similar starting points and the ability to learn from successful EV markets in China and India.SuzukiOthersKawasakiYamahaHondaMotorcycle sales(2021-2022)Sources:Indonesia Automobile Association,Press Search27Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook28I
92、ndonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookPublicSentimentPublic knowledge on EVs:63%of the public is knowledgeable about electric bikes,while 46%are knowledgeable about electric cars.Public perception:The public views EVs positively for fuel efficiency and lower operating costs but is relatively indifferent
93、 toward their environmental impact.A lack of incentives and infrastructure hinder adoption.Subsidies and visibility of infrastructure may improve this perception.29Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookPublic awareness of EVs has improved,but concerns about quality,design,and infrastructure remain.Awar
94、eness on electric vehiclesDo you know Indonesia already has an e-motorcycle model available for purchase?Perception on electric vehiclesWhat is your first impression on e-motorcycle features in general?Positive NegativeYes NegativeRiding rangeDimension&sizeCharging infrastructureModel&appearancePric
95、ingLess maintenance cost63%37%N=100N=63Source:BCGEV positive campaign and infrastructure development,including battery charging and swapping infrastructure,are important to accelerate EV adoption in Indonesia.30Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookElectric bikes have shown lower overall operational co
96、sts,and can be further reduced via government subsidies.Comparison of fuel subsidy spending for ICE and incentives required for e2W over 6-year lifetimeTotal cost of ownership for 2 Wheelers5 Year Total Cost of Ownership(in USD)Sources:Press Search,BCG AnalysisSource:Team analysis1.Based on average
97、electricity subsidy from PLN2.Subsidy needed to reduce from IDR 1644/kWh to IDR 714/kWh in electricity tariff for BSS3.For battery of 1.7-3 kWh with the price of$200-300/kWhFunding(incentive)for 1 battery4 Electricity discount from PLN2Electricity discount to offer BSS the same rate with SPKLU3Fuel
98、subsidy per vehicleHome charging modelBSS model7.5-919.77.5-92.8-3.510.3-12.58.6-10.31.1-1.3Unit:IDR mNote:Assume 6 years as e2W lifetime,average travel distance per vehicle per day is 50 km,ICE fuel efficiency is 50 km/l,electricity efficiency is 1.4-1.7 kWh/50 kmTotal cost of ownership for EVs can
99、 be significantly lower than that of traditional(ICE)2-wheelers,given savings from energy costs that can go north of 40%and operating costs savings of 50%.However,the majority of purchasing costs(vehicle prices)are still higher than incumbent ICE.EV companies will need to execute strong financing/pa
100、yment plans to accelerate EV conversion.31Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndustry&Supply ChainCathode precursor production in Indonesia is carried out in two locations(Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park and Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park).The total investment for this production thus far has
101、 reached around US$2.6 billion,indicating significant economic interest in this sector.For cell and battery module production,the Indonesian government is investing US$5 billion to build a battery factory backed by CATL.A consortium led by the second largest EV battery maker LG Energy has also set a
102、side US$9 billion to invest in an integrated battery project in the country with the local supply chain.These investments point to a growing interest in the development and production of batteries in Indonesia.The Indonesian Battery Corporation is a joint venture between Pertamina,PLN,MIND ID,and An
103、tam.This partnership aims to develop both upstream and downstream sectors of the battery industry in Indonesia.With such collaborations and investments,the country is well-positioned to establish a significant presence in the global battery market(estimated to overtake China for nickel processing wi
104、thin 2025)and support the emerging EV industry locally.32Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookThe Indonesian ecosystem is poised to benefit from the BEV cost structureDue to Indonesias rich minerals supply,and large demand for vehicles,the Indonesian government has initiated key investments to take pa
105、rt in the production of materials in the supply chain.As more batteries are stocked and more use cases in play,Indonesia can develop a thriving battery recycling industry in the future as well,further reducing the BEV costs.Internal Combustion Engine(ICE)Vehicle cost structureBattery Electric Vehicl
106、es(BEV)Vehicle cost structureSource:UC DavisICE VehicleBEVChassis Body Drivetrain Equipment OthersChassis Body Drivetrain Equipment Others BatteryFrom the total battery costs,the lithium ion packs currently make up 40-70%Nickel,of which Indonesia has 21Mn tons of reserve(the most in the world)makes
107、up and important aspect of the lithium ion build33Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesias nickel reserves show the countrys local strength in raw materialUnited StatesColumbiaMadagascarGuatemalaCanadaChinaSouth AfricaPhilippinesCubaOthersRussiaBrazilAustraliaIndonesiaGlobal AdvantageNickel res
108、erves(tons)Indonesias nickel reserves could fuel its electric vehicle ambitionsSource:U.S.Geological Survey34Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIndonesia is currently building up its infrastructure across the EV supply chainMININGProcessing and refining of raw material into precursors for battery ma
109、terialsCELL COMPONENT PRODUCTIONBATTERY CELL/PACK PRODUCTIONEV PRODUCTIONCharging and battery swaping station distributionRAW MATERIAL PROCESSINGManufacture of specialised battery components:cathode and anode materials,electrolytes,separators and casingsFabrication of battery cells,then integration
110、into the battery pack including electronics,sensors and battery management systemManufacture of vehicle and integration of battery and subsystem hardwareCHARGING INFRASTRUCTUREExtraction of raw ores/material required for battery materialsSources:IESR,Press SearchMinistry of Energy and Mineral Resour
111、ces,Antam,Inalum,private local players.Ministry of Industry,Indonesia Battery Corporation,EV battery project acceleration team,private sector partnerships(LG,CATL)EV players,Indonesia EV associationPertamina,PLN,private sector partnerships35Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookPolicy&RegulationGeneral
112、 sentiment:The overall sentiment toward EVs in the country is positive,but it would need more support from regulators to develop a unified plan.Financial incentives:The government offers financial incentives to companies that invest in EVs.For those that invest IDR 10 trillion(US$647 million)or more
113、,there is a five-year corporate income tax holiday.Smaller investments are also eligible for mini-tax holidays.EV owners can benefit from reduced luxury taxes for premium vehicles,while the mass market can enjoy an IDR 7 million(US$453)subsidy from March 2023 for 2W EV purchases.4W EVs will also be
114、given subsidies based on government quota and restrictions.EV owners can also benefit from improved discounts on electricity for home charging.Other regulations:To encourage local production of EVs,there are regulations that require a minimum of 40%local components by 2023.Other regulations include
115、traffic restrictions exemptions.36Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookEnd-user financial incentivesEnd-user tax incentivesPreferential accessDEMANDPolicy clustersPolicyKey authoritiesLower risk weight of 75%for loans for EV purchasing(compared to 100%for other industries)IDR 7 million subsidy for EV-
116、2Wheelers;other subsidies for 4-Wheelers(currently limited to individuals and MSMEs that meet conditions;EVs will have to meet minimum local production requirement)Luxury goods tax reduction for EVs-0%for BEV/FCEV if local content requirement metExemption from road restrictionsParking fee discountMa
117、nufacturer financial incentivesManufacturer tax incentivesRegulatory hurdle reductionCapabilities buildingLower risk weight of 75%for loans for EV value chain activities(compared to standard 100%)and exemption from maximum credit limit if guaranteed by BUMNCIT holiday(up to 20 years)for investment i
118、n EV industryImport duty exemption on SKD kits for EVGovernment grants free access to government owned BEV-related technology to EV playersTax deduction of up to 300%of costs incurred in R&D,technological innovation activities and industrial vocationProfessional certification for battery industrySUP
119、PLYFinancial Services AuthorityFinancial Services AuthorityPresidential decreePresidential decreePresidential decreePresidentialdecreeMinistry of FinancePresidentialdecreeMinistry of Finance4W+2W 4W onlyMinistry of Investment/BKPMPresidentialdecreeMinistry of Energy&Mineral ResourcesKey authoritiesS
120、ources:Presidential Decree,Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Energy&Mineral Resources,Ministry of Investment,PLN,OJKINFRA.&ENABLERSPolicy clustersPolicyCharging network supportIndustry standardizationDiscounted rate for home power capacity upgrade&special electric price rates up to 30%for home chargin
121、g35%-50%discount on electricity rates given to SPKLU businessEase of SPKLU licensing(simplified process steps)Setting up product certification&technical standards for EV industry(standards for EV charging infra.in place)Ministry of Energy&Mineral ResourcesState Electric Company4W+2W 4W onlyWere at a
122、 critical juncture in the transition from internal combustion engines to EVs-a transformation demanding adaptation.Embracing this change,Otoklix is reorienting to become a trailblazer in the EV aftermarket sector,partnering with Segway Motors Indonesia for post-sale services.This move underscores ou
123、r shared commitment to an electrified future,demonstrating our collective drive for major industry progress.Martin Reyhan SuryohusodoCo-founder&CEO,Otoklixmartin_“37Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook38Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookCase study:Chinas government support is helping drive EV penetr
124、ation1.NEV=New energy vehicle2.SEI=Strategic emerging industries3.Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Tianjin,Hangzhou,Shenzhen4.Required half of new vehicles purchased by Chinas central government be NEV within 5 yearsHigh auto manufacturing capacity&minimal EV penetration,spark EV adoptionGrowing EV penetr
125、ation&production capacity,ramp down subsidiesSources:IEA,ICCT,BCG Analysis2009:Market became the worlds largest automotive manufacturerNEV Penetration rate(%)Extended subsidy period while continuing phasing downNASCENT INDUSTRYGROWING INDUSTRYMATURITYPrivate NEV purchase subsidy pilot0.0118.515Dual-
126、credit systemRemoved foreign EV OEMs onshore limitationExtended subsidy period while continuing phasing downEV infrastructure reward schemeCentral government4 vehicles to be NEVNEV1 included in 7 SEIs2Launched“ten cities,thousand vehicles”Private NEV purchase subsidy pilotBegan purchase subsidy phas
127、e downSome cities3:Vehicle registration privilege39Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookICE purchase costSubsidyCase study:Indias government support is helping drive EV penetrationKey takeaways for IndonesiaIncentives for end-users required to catalyze the industry and bring e2W&ICE price parity close
128、rE2W Penetration(%)E2W vs ICE ComparisonFAME2 launched,$112M&limited to 427 charging stations,end-user financial subsidiese2W subsidy is linked to battery size($185/kWh)and post-subsidy price is comparable to ICE priceFurther policies introduced thereafter(preferential access,PLI,tax benefits)Limite
129、d impact from Phase 1,thus FAME was expanded with$1.25B budget to subsidize over 1.5 m EVs110-14545-5065-10070-900.10.30.92.5Hero Splendor PlusHero Optima CXINR 110 kINR 70 kMax speed:45 km/hRange:82 km/batteryMax speed:93 km/hRange:700 kmTVS RaiderINR 90 kMax speed:99 km/hRange:650 kmOla S1INR 145
130、kMax speed:95 km/hRange:128 km/battery40Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookIn Indonesia,getting a loan greatly affects whether people buy EVsof Indonesians purchase both 2W and 4W vehicles through credit schemes70%Sources:Toyota Auto Finance,Astra Honda Motor,KADIN IndonesiaBuying vehicles generally
131、 accounts for about 10%of the total ownership costPlayers in EV financing in IndonesiaTurno:a disruptor in Indian market that can be used as inspirationNote:These calculations are based on a total cost of ownership over five years with 180,000 km of usage,and a loan with average multifinance rates o
132、f approximately 2.5%for 2 years.The high cost of financing has been a major hurdle to EV adoption,but recent government involvement has helped to reduce the problemTraditionally,interest rates for ICE vehicles have been 21%per annum,and 29%per annum for EVs due to uncertainties in after-sales servic
133、e and the used car market.However,recent incentives from corporations towards EVs,support from the Financial Services Authority(OJK),and the Himbara initiatives focus on EVs have improved the affordability of financing.A few finance companies have begun offering rates as low as 27%per annum(for one-
134、year loans)despite the higher overall rates.This could potentially be less than some ICE vehicle financing rates,though further efforts are needed in implementing and promoting this strategy.Note:As of H1 2023Economy ICE BikeMaxi ICE BikePurchase Cost InterestEnergy Cost Operating CostTurno is an In
135、dian electric vehicle platform that provides a range of financing choices to both individuals and companies.41Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookEV financing has also become top of mind for the government,but needs more support to ensure improved total cost of ownershipNew government support will he
136、lp increase affordabilitySource:TempoOJK Incentivizes Financial Services to Boost Electric Vehicle IndustryThe Financial Services Authority(OJK)in a written statement asserted that it fully supports the governments program in accelerating the battery-based electric vehicles(KBLBB)industry by distrib
137、uting multiple forms of incentives.“We have issued incentives in the banking,capital market,and non-bank financial industry(IKNB)sectors to increase the role of the financial services industry in supporting the electric vehicle program,”said OJK Public Relations Director Darmansyah in a written stat
138、ement,November 30.In the field of banking,the OJK provides incentives by relaxing the calculation of Risk Weighted Assets(RWA)by reducing the credit risk weight(ATMR)from 75 percent to 50 percent for electric vehicle production and consumption until December 31,2023.There will also be the provision
139、of funds to debtors with the aim of purchasing electric vehicles and/or developing the upstream KBLBB industrythe battery industry,the charging station industry,and the component industry.In the capital market sector,OJK provides a discount on green bond registration statement fees including battery
140、-based electric vehicles funding to 25 percent of the original levy.The Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX)also responded to this by providing a discount on the green bonds annual listing fee rate of 50 percent of the listing fee rate.OJK also provides incentives and initiatives for finance companies by c
141、hanneling funds to customers in the context of production and consumption.42Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookRecommendations for a conducive EV ecosystem in IndonesiaHigher EV acquisition costsUnfavorable EV lending&leasing schemesImplementation remains unclear from operators sideFinancial institu
142、tions are less inclined to offer loans or leases to EV adopters,or they do so with terms and rates that are less favorable than those for ICEFor regulators:Gather feedback on current incentives and subsidies Evaluate the implementation strategy,including aspects such as who should receive support,th
143、e amount of support (considering the budget),eligibility criteria,and processesFor EV players:Invest in sourcing expertise to have strong supply chain connections,ideally directly from principal supplier Identify ideal domestic to international production mix for TKDN compliance and cost efficiency
144、Explore financing partnerships with different payment frequencies to meet the markets willingness to payFor regulators:Mandate suitable battery warranties Ensure equal subsidy,tax,and preferential treatment for EV bikes with different business models such as battery swapping,charging,leasing,and mor
145、e Co-develop and support risk-sharing facilities to limit lending risks to help financial institutions lease on better terms Continue promoting EVs as a key sector to banks,similar to the ongoing Himbara program.For EV players:Consider exploring warranties and buyback programs to enable financial in
146、stitutions to reduce interest rates Partner with specialized financing companies with higher risk tolerance to build up credit viabilityRecommendationsCurrent pain pointsSources:Team analysis,IFC43Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookRecommendations for a conducive EV ecosystem in IndonesiaUnmet inves
147、tment into EVLimited public knowledge about EVsHigh capex with relatively uncertain outcomes Strong requirements for local content but low supplyFor regulators:Encourage suitable phasing for localizing battery components,initially by relaxing import duties on certain crucial parts Gradually increase
148、 local value addition Establish comprehensive support and incentives for the supply side to boost local production and assembly industryFor EV players:Build robust plans that incorporate production phasing and investment risk distribution,including strategies like partnerships,staged funding rounds,
149、and shared infrastructure plans Pinpoint strategic investment opportunities and partnerships with both local and foreign entitiesFor regulators:Involve private sector companies in cooperative initiatives to broaden market outreach through campaigns,events,and public engagement Develop strategies and
150、 rules requiring manufacturers to share information about the benefits of electric vehicles Launch public awareness campaigns that promote the positive aspects of electric vehiclesFor EV players:Provide public outreach programs that combine in-person demonstrations and online educational resources I
151、nteract with local communities and enhance distribution channels through dealerships Reinforce collaborations with the public sector and other compatible sectors such as utilitiesRecommendationsCurrent pain pointsSources:Team analysis,IFC44Indonesias Electric Vehicle OutlookKeyTakeawaysIndonesia has
152、 a sizable market opportunity worth US$20 billion in the EV industry.To accelerate EV production and adoption,the country needs to maintain favorable policies,develop infrastructure,and support local producers in meeting the 40%local components requirement.It is imperative for local investors to bec
153、ome actively involved in the market as soon as possible.Additionally,partnerships between the government,state-owned enterprises(SOEs),and private businesses must be sustained to establish a robust ecosystem.The development of leasing,financing,and SaaS should be prioritized to increase penetration.
154、A concerted effort to implement these measures can pave the way for a thriving EV market in Indonesia.Bp.Anugraha DezmercolediBp.Rian Ernest TanudjajaExecutive DirectorBp.Dannif Utojo DanusaputroGeneral ChairmanBp.Airlangga HartartoChairman of the Board of TrusteesBp.M.Arsjad Rasjid P.M.Chairman of
155、the Supervisory BoardSecretary GeneralAbout AEMLAEML Leadership:AEML is a non-profit organization.We are the industry body,thought leader,and public policy advocate for the electric vehicle(EV)ecosystem in Indonesia.AEML engages,sustains,and grows the EV ecosystem through engagement with vehicle bra
156、nd owners,component suppliers,battery providers,and infrastructure players.Through these partnerships,we build collaboration among all stakeholders,creating economic and social value for Indonesia.Our mission of electrifying mobility in Indonesia is based on a calling to protect the environment by r
157、educing pollution.AEML will achieve its vision of supporting the adoption of EVs and fostering the creation of a globally competitive EV ecosystem.45Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlookinfoacv.vcAdrian LiPandu SjahrirMichael SoerijadjiHelen WongFounder and Managing PartnerFounding PartnerFounder and
158、Managing PartnerManaging PartnerAbout AC VenturesAC Ventures(ACV)is a top Southeast Asian venture capital firm that invests inearly-stage startups focused on Indonesia and ASEAN,with over US$500 million in assetsunder management.The firms mission is to empower entrepreneurs with more than just capit
159、al by combining operational experience,industry knowledge,deep local networks,and resources.ACVs team has invested in over 120 tech companies in the region since 2012.With a team of more than 35 professionals led by Adrian Li,Michael Soerijadji,Helen Wong,and Pandu Sjahrir,it has offices in Jakarta and Singapore.46Indonesias Electric Vehicle Outlook