《仲量联行: 2023年第一季度亚太区物流工业地产市场报告(英文版)(24页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《仲量联行: 2023年第一季度亚太区物流工业地产市场报告(英文版)(24页).pdf(24页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、Logistics and Industrial ResearchOccupier demand remains resilient across most marketsAsia Pacific|Q1 2023ContentsLogistics and Industrial marketsLogistics and Industrial Market Insights2JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202309 Hong Kong10 Beijing11 Shanghai12 Tokyo13 Seoul14 Singapore15
2、Thailand16 Delhi17 Sydney18 Melbourne19 Brisbane20 Perth21 Adelaide22 Auckland06ForewordMarkets remain turbulent.Higher interest rates and inflation weigh on sentiment.Recent banking sector instability added to the headwinds.However,the outlook is more positive.We are likely nearing the end of the m
3、onetary policy tightening cycle;inflation is high but has likely peaked in many markets,and banking sector stress appears to have been contained.Occupier demand has remained resilient in the face of these headwinds.While there has been a recent dip in take-up levels from e-commerce groups(as they wo
4、rk through their additional capacity),the longer-term positive outlook is unchanged.There will be a continued shift to online consumption.More L&I space will be needed to support this ongoing transition,especially as governments invest more in transportation projects and new economy technology infra
5、structure.On the investment front,deal flow has slowed.This is not surprising given the financing environment at present.Positively,the near-end of the rate cycle in many markets may remove some uncertainty around capital costs for investors.Given the current environment,now may be an opportune time
6、 to assess strategies,to pivot as needed,and to lay the ground-work for successful execution.We would be delighted to partner with you to explore opportunities and to navigate around the risks in this current environment.We look forward to a brighter 2023.Peter GuevarraDirector Asia Pacific Research
7、3JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 2023Mainland China3.05.5Growth forecasts revised up with private consumption and fixed investment to lead the recovery while exports face dimmer prospects given a softer outlook for the global economy and external demand Indonesia5.33.9Challenging global
8、 backdrop are expected to weigh on momentum with exports slowing,while weaker confidence challenges domestic demand as the impact of monetary tightening flows through Japan1.00.6Domestic demand to increasingly carry growth momentum as the weak external environment is likely to drag on the performanc
9、e of exports and the manufacturing sector South Korea2.60.5Ongoing downturn in the semiconductor cycle to drag on production with the global economy set to slow further.Domestic demand to feel the strain of tight financial conditions and soft business sentiment Singapore3.70.4Export weakness as soft
10、 external demand conditions drag on trade.Domestic demand is also likely to moderate as the uncertain growth outlook weighs on employment and incomes Australia3.71.6Higher interest rates and cost pressures to curb household spending.Trade should remain a positive impetus of growth partly supported b
11、y strength from services exports amidst a greater return of students and tourists Hong Kong-3.52.2Recovery strengthening with support from domestic demand and the return of tourists,particularly from Mainland China.Export outlook,however,remains challenging against the backdrop of weaker growth in a
12、dvanced economiesIndia6.74.8Consumption growth to slow but remain a positive driver.Global financial sector stress and softer global economy to feed through to weaker investment and external demand Real GDP(%y-o-y change)20222023F2023 OutlookMajor EconomiesOutlook for Major EconomiesSource:Oxford Ec
13、onomics,April 2023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20234|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Logistics and Industrial markets|GrowthSlowingRentsRisingRentsFallingDeclineSlowingAucklandAdelaide,Brisbane,Melbourne,Perth,SydneyWellingtonHong KongShanghaiTokyoSeoulThailandSingapore(Busi
14、ness Park)Singapore(Logistics)BeijingCapital ValuesRental ValuesSeoulHong KongBeijingShanghaiTokyoMelbourneSydneySingapore40.416.112.38.05.25.02.41.16.4-8.812.4-7.65.512.53.34.2SingaporeSouth KoreaHong KongJapanAP OthersChinaAustraliaUSD millions 10,0000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,00020072008200
15、9200132014 2000212022 YTD2023Logistics and Industrial Rental Property Clock,1Q23Logistics and Industrial Rental&Capital Value Changes,Yearly%Changes,1Q23Direct Logistics and Industrial Real Estate Investment 2007-1Q23Source:JLL,Real Estate Intelligence Service,1Q23So
16、urce:JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service),1Q23Figures relate to the major submarket in each citySource:JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service),1Q23Figures refer to transactions over USD 5 millionJLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20235|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Logistics and
17、Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market InsightsRising vacancy amidst surging supply Occupier activity remained stable in the quarter,but greater economic headwinds and rising supply drove vacancy higher.Across the Asia Pacific region,net absorption rose by 2.9 million sqm q-o-q(on par wi
18、th the historic five-year quarterly average),supported by project completions in markets such as Seoul and Tokyo.Generally,e-commerce demand remained slow relative to 2022 levels,with 3PL providers and other logistics providers picking up the slack.Supply is a headwind in many markets.Almost 5.8 mil
19、lion sqm completed in 1Q23.This is higher than the quarterly average of 4.0 million sqm over the past five years,and 2023 is on track to be the year of the highest number of completions on record.Given these supply side pressures,mature market1 vacancy rose to 8.8%in 1Q23,up from 6.7%in 4Q22.Vacancy
20、 is anticipated to remain elevated in the short-to-medium-term.Rents rise but growth moderatesDespite rising vacancy,rents trended up steadily in most markets.The few markets where rents fell or were flat are characterised by very high supply.At a market level,rents grew at a modest pace across Grea
21、ter China,rising between 0.4%and 1.3%q-o-q across the major markets.Rents in Tokyo fell(modestly)for the first time since mid-2021 given supply side pressures.Supply also kept rental changes subdued in Seoul,with no change in the quarter.Singapore was more positive.With demand for high quality logis
22、tics/warehouse space continuing to outstrip supply,the average islandwide logistics/warehouse rent increased for the eighth straight quarter.Rents continued to accelerate in both Sydney and Melbourne supported by tight market conditions.Investment slows,but pockets of opportunityFinancial market vol
23、atility continues to weigh on investor activity.There was muted activity across Greater China,although sentiment is generally positive.Tokyo remains one of the more attractive markets for investors.According to our recent investor survey,Tokyo logistics is a top three market where investors plan on
24、increasing their AUM in 2023.However,opportunities are still limited.Investor sentiment for Seoul logistics has cooled relative to recent quarters given rate hikes and the upcoming potential oversupply environment.In Sydney and Melbourne,despite rising interest rates,investment volumes were elevated
25、 relative to historical averages in the quarter.Many institutional players are selling assets to help with balance sheet reconfiguration.1Includes Beijing,Shanghai,Hong Kong,Tokyo,Singapore,and SeoulJLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20236|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Logistics
26、 and Industrial markets|Vacancy rate10-year average0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0%Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Asia Pacific Vacancy RateAsia Pacific Logistics Rental Values,1Q23Asia Pacific Logistics Capital Values,1Q23Source:JLLNote:Includes Beijing,Shanghai,Hong K
27、ong,Tokyo,Singapore,and Seoul;GFA basisSource:JLLNote:Based on REIS coverage markets;SE Asia includes five cities,and China Tier 2 includes 22 cities;Sydney and Melbourne are net face rents,other markets are net effective;GFA basis*As at 4Q22Source:JLLNote:Based on REIS coverage markets;SE Asia incl
28、udes five cities,and China Tier 2 includes 22 cities.Sydney and Melbourne are approximates only;GFA basis*As at 4Q22DelhiChina Tier 2 averageSE Asia average(excl.SG)*TokyoMelbourneShanghaiSeoulBeijingSingaporeSydneyHong Kong 50 0 100 150 200 250USD,per sqm p.a.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000Del
29、hiChina Tier 2 averageSE Asia average(excl.SG)*ShanghaiBeijingSeoulMelbourneSingaporeTokyoSydneyHong KongUSD,per sqmJLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20237|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Logistics and Industrial markets|Resilient outlook amidst gathering headwindsThe outlook rem
30、ains challenging for 2023.Occupier demand will slow from 2022 levels,dragged down by lower take up from e-commerce groups,but demand from 3PL groups should remain robust.Supply is the greater headwind for L&I real estate.Around 27.9 million sqm is expected this year,the highest on record.A positive
31、for the market is that many projects may be delayed given more stringent development financing conditions and still elevated construction costs.Investment activity will slow further this year.Uncertainty is persistent and capital costs will remain elevated,although the interest rate cycle is nearing
32、 its likely peak.What may spur more activity are institutional investors selling well bought assets to help with balance sheet reconfiguration.There has been evidence of this in Australia,and this may start to also occur in markets where there are capital costs pressures.There will also be some sele
33、ctive buying opportunities in select submarkets where investors see upside value growth or in markets where conditions are more stable.Peter GuevarraDirector,Asia Pacific RRoddy AllanChief Research Officer Asia PJLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20238|Logistics and Industrial Market Insig
34、hts|Logistics and Industrial markets|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Investment market sentiment remains stagnant.”Cathie Chung Senior Director,Hong KongRenewals drive leasing activities with few new lettings The leasing market was dominated by renewals in 1Q23 with most of them driven by the t
35、hird-party logistics operators.For example,Geodis Hong Kong renewed its lease of 57,040 sq ft at Tuen Mun Distribution Centre Block 2 while Dimerco Air Forwarders extended its stay in ATL Logistic Centre(33,949 sq ft).Besides 3PLs,some activity was seen in the cold storage segment.ParknShop renewed
36、the lease of its cold storage at 6 Ka Fu Close in Sheung Shui with a GFA of 139,931 sq ft while Meisei Hong Kong expanded its cold storage facility in Goodman Shatin Logistics Centre Phase II by committing an extra floor for 14,206 sq ft.Vacancy rate remains stable with limited net absorption The ov
37、erall vacancy rate stood at 1.9%,a similar level to the previous quarter.The net absorption was about 20,000 sq ft.The warehouse stock is expected to add 4.1 million sq ft(GFA)provided by Cainiao Hong Kong Smart Gateway near the airport in 3Q23.Rental growth stabilises in 1Q23 with a mild rise in ca
38、pital value The rental trend was broadly stable with rents of prime warehouses edging up by 0.8%q-o-q.Investment sentiment was timid and only one enbloc transaction was recorded.Local investor Angela Leung reportedly sold Tungtex Building in Kwun Tong for HKD 790.0 million(HKD 7,467 per sq ft,GFA).T
39、he buyer is understood to be the owner of the adjacent industrial building.It is expected that the owner will merge the two sites for redevelopment into an office building.Outlook:Stable rental growth to be expected While prime warehouse rents may face pressure due to the considerable new space brou
40、ght about by Cainiao Hong Kong Smart Gateway in 3Q23,the pressure is likely to be moderate and short-lived.A substantial proportion being owner-occupied in the new facility,as well as expansion demand alongside a recovering economy,should lend support to the overall stable rental trend.The relativel
41、y high yield of industrial properties and generally benign demand/supply dynamics render the asset class strongly appealing to investors.The potential to re-purpose industrial assets for alternative uses further enhances the attractiveness of industrial assets to investors who plan to intensively op
42、erate them to address niche demand for space.sq ft per month,net effective on GFAHKD 13.4Rental Growth Y-O-Y5.2%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingHong KongNote:Hong Kong Logistics&Industrial refers to Hong Kongs industrial warehouse market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:J
43、LLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2380900CompletionsFuture SupplyThousand sqm200200300
44、350400JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20239Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Continued active demand in the market further boosts rent growth.”Mi YangHead of Research,North ChinaDemand grows;Pinggu is the most
45、active submarket Leasing demand became more active in 1Q23,with economic recovery notably benefitting the market after the relaxation of Chinas COVID-19 restrictions at the end of 2022.Several new leases of over 10,000 sqm each were completed in 1Q23.New leasing activities were mainly from logistics
46、 companies,3PLs and cold chain demand from e-commerce and healthcare companies.Demand growth was significant in the Pinggu district,which outperformed other submarkets.In this submarket,a supply chain management company signed a new lease for 10,000 sqm while a fresh food e-commerce company signed a
47、 new lease for 5,000 sqm.Diverging absorption levels drive up vacancy rates Two new projects,with a total GFA of 104,366 sqm,entered the market in 1Q23.However,the absorption levels recorded for both were quite different.One of the new projects has recorded few pre-leasing deals due to limited acces
48、sibility,leaving it with an 85%vacancy rate.The other new project was quickly absorbed with 90%of the total area pre-leased before it officially entered the market.The majority of projects in the market continued to perform well in targeting mainstream demand sources such as e-commerce and logistics
49、.Net absorption of about 84,600 sqm was recorded in the quarter.The vacancy rate was slightly higher mainly because of the influx of new projects in the quarter,with an increase of 0.5 ppts from 4Q22.Rent growth continues to expand,supported by active demand Overall rent growth maintained a modest g
50、rowth trend in 1Q23,rising 1.3%q-o-q and 5.0%y-o-y.Active demand has offset new supply pressure,keeping rents rising steadily.Projects that currently have higher vacancy levels tended to offer discounts for prospective tenants aiming to fill space more quickly.However,the majority of projects contin
51、ued to show stable rent growth,while projects that were nearly fully occupied increased their rent level more aggressively.Outlook:Expanding market size to bring new opportunities to the city In 2023,about 464,100 sqm of new supply is expected to enter the market.Although the total new supply in 202
52、3 will be a 10-year historical peak,overall demand remains strong,resulting in only a slight increase in vacancy rate,up 1.7 ppts to 8%.The year of 2023 will be a turning point for Beijings logistics market structure as the notable expansion in market size should further release market demand that h
53、ad previously been restrained by the limited supply.Also,the considerable amount of new supply is expected to bring more opportunities to the investment market as high-quality logistics projects are relatively rare in the market.sqm per day,net effective on GFARMB 1.81Rental Growth Y-O-Y5.0%Stage in
54、 CycleRents RisingBeijingNote:Beijing Logistics&Industrial refers to Beijings prime non-bonded logistics market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder
55、of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex809001401501604Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture SupplyThousand sqm05003003504004502002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202310Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Indust
56、rial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Shanghais logistics sector starts to see a gradual recovery.”Daniel Yao Head of Research,ChinaLeasing demand remains stable Stable leasing demand led to 87,000 sqm of net absorption,which was an improvement compared to the same period last ye
57、ar.While there was some new supply,stable demand in both existing and new projects allowed non-bonded vacancy to edge downward slightly to 9.4%.E-Commerce firms and retailers were active in leasing.For example,a well-known e-commerce platform leased approximately 36,000 sqm in the Songjiang submarke
58、t,and a retailer leased more than 4,000 sqm in the Fengxian submarket.One project reaches completion Logiport Songjiang Logistics Park was the quarters only completion.The project delivered 76,000 sqm of modern warehouse space and reached the market with a decent pre-commitment rate.The supply pipel
59、ine for 2023 remains significant.Five projects totalling 582,000 sqm are expected to come on-stream in the remainder of 2023,which will put submarkets like Qingpu and Songjiang under short-term pressure in terms of vacancy and rent growth.Rent growth continues to decelerate Rents continued rising on
60、 the back of stable demand.Rents grew 0.41%q-o-q on a like-for-like basis to RMB 1.58 per sqm,per day.That said,the pace of rent growth slowed further as economic recovery remained muted.No investment transactions were closed in Shanghai over the quarter.Top-tier markets such as Shanghai remained a
61、preferred destination for both domestic and international investors thanks to promising economic fundamentals.Outlook:Recovery to gain steam later in the year Stable demand at the start of the year has shown the strength of Shanghais logistics market.We expect the recovery to become more evident in
62、2H23,in line with an anticipated improvement of consumer confidence and the recovery of domestic consumption.Though the quarters new project achieved a decent pre-commitment level,supply pressure could remain significant over the rest of 2023.If all planned projects complete as scheduled,annual supp
63、ly for 2023 would be double that of 2022,putting pressure on vacancy and rent growth.sqm per day,net effective on GFARMB 1.58Rental Growth Y-O-Y2.6%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingShanghaiNote:Shanghai Logistics&Industrial refers to Shanghais modern warehouse facilities.Dotted lines indicate near-term o
64、utlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the non-bonded market.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex809001401504Q184Q194Q20
65、4Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture SupplyThousand sqm005006007008009001,0002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202311Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Rent growth slows down due to an
66、increase in new supply.”Takeshi AkagiHead of Research,JapanSolid demand from 3PLs and manufacturers Logistics sector economic indicators were strengthed entering 1Q23.In February,the industrial production index increased 4.5%m-o-m,increasing for the first time in two months.The value of exports incr
67、eased for the 24th consecutive month and the value of imports increased for the 25th consecutive month,reflecting the Japanese yen depreciation and the recovery of the domestic economy.Net absorption totalled 621,000 sqm in 1Q23,with strong,sustained demand from 3PLs and manufacturers,despite a slow
68、down from the previous quarter due to large supply.Overall vacancy increases to 8%levels since 1Q16 New supply totalled 1,259,000 sqm in 1Q23,increasing total stock by 7%q-o-q and 20%y-o-y.Eleven facilities,including DPL Urayasu 4(GFA 49,000 sqm)in the Bay area,GLP ALFALINK Nagareyama 5(GFA 149,000
69、sqm)and GLP ALFALINK Nagareyama 6(GFA 62,000 sqm)in the Inland area,entered the market.The vacancy rate in Greater Tokyo stood at 8.1%in 1Q23,increasing 300 bps q-o-q and 510 bps y-o-y.Driven by new completions entering the market,the vacancy rate in the Bay area rose to 9.8%,increasing 710 bps q-o-
70、q,while Tokyo Inlands rose to 7.4%,increasing 120 bps q-o-q.Average rents grow moderately Gross rents in Greater Tokyo averaged JPY 4,545 per tsubo per month in 1Q23,increasing 0.1%q-o-q and 1.9%y-o-y.Rents in the Bay area remained flat q-o-q,while decreasing 0.2%q-o-q in the Inland area,reflecting
71、new completions in the Inland area with relatively low rents.Capital values in Greater Tokyo decreased 0.4%q-o-q and increased 4.2%y-o-y in 1Q23,reflecting moderate rent growth and cap rate compression.A notable sales transaction involved SBS Logicom selling 60%of Yokohama Kanazawa Logistics Center(
72、GFA 54,000 sqm)for an undisclosed price.Outlook:Capital values to grow,reflecting cap rate compression According to Oxford Economics,trade-oriented indicators are expected to be uneven in 2023.Industrial production is expected to fall by 0.1%,while exports and imports are likely to rise by 0.8%and 2
73、.5%,respectively.Downside risks include a decline in exports due to the global economic slowdown and concerns about the deterioration of the domestic economy due to rising raw material prices.Average rents are likely to be on an upward trend,as rising land prices and construction costs pressure land
74、lords to raise rents.This will be somewhat offset by downward pressure from major new completions entering the market.Cap rates are expected to compress further with continued investors interest.tsubo per month,gross on NLAJPY 4,545Rental Growth Y-O-Y1.9%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingTokyoNote:Tokyo L
75、ogistics&Industrial refers to the Greater Tokyo prime logistics market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the r
76、emainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex809001401504Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsTake-up(net)Future SupplyVacancy RateThousand sqmPercent0001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 20231
77、2Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Leasing activity stays buoyant while transaction volume continues to plunge drastically.”Veronica ShimHead of Research,South KoreaStrong leasing activity in the quarter Net absorption in 1
78、Q23 reached a record-high of about 281,500 pyeong.This is equivalent to around 59%of the annual net absorption in 2022.Leasing activity in new completions accounted for roughly 78%of the quarterly net take-up.The types of tenant pools have diversified,with consumer electronics,fashion,e-groceries,co
79、smetics and 3PL tenants signing leases.While there are centres that have improved occupancy in the quarter,some others have witnessed departures of existing tenants from 3PL and e-commerce categories.Deferred supply completes,resulting in a large supply in 1Q23 During the quarter,19 new centres were
80、 completed.New supply occurred in four submarkets excluding the North,with one in the Central,four in the South,eleven in the South-east,and three in the West.A number of centres whose completion was delayed the previous quarter came on-stream in 1Q23.The vacancy rate in SCA was 12.6%,the highest le
81、vel since 2018.As there is an abundance of recent completions,the vacancy rate rose due to unresolved vacancies in these centres.Vacancy rates increased in the South,the South-east and the Central,while those in the West decreased slightly.The North continued to maintain a 0%vacancy rate.Investment
82、activity slows down substantially In 1Q23,overall net effective rent for SCA reached KRW 30,287 per pyeong per month,a decrease of-1.7%q-o-q as the proportion of stock in the South-east increased.Rents in the South-east were lower compared to other submarkets.Rents rose in all districts except the W
83、est.Rent in the West tumbled-4.7%q-o-q,which was attributable to larger incentives to reduce vacancies.The investment volume in 1Q23 recorded KRW 789 billion,up 9.2%q-o-q and down-59.0%y-o-y,clearly revealing the tight investment market.A notable deal for the quarter was Alpha Flux Logistics Center,
84、which traded for about KRW 115 billion from developer Focus On,to Starload Asset Management.Outlook:The supply pipeline may shrink further in 2023 Logistics centres which had delayed completions in 2022 are scheduled to complete in 2023.However,as financing costs remain high and lingering leasing ri
85、sk take a toll on developers,delays in construction are expected to prolong for the time being.Among the districts,the West is anticipated to see the largest new supply volume,which would result in a surge in vacancy.There are rising expectations of the Bank of Korea to hold rates,which could be hin
86、ting at gradual stabilisation of mortgage rates.However,investment appetite should stay healthy on a selective basis.Nonetheless,liquidity shortages and the still-high cost of debt are likely to hamper deal closings.pyeong per month,net effective on GFAKRW 30,287Rental Growth Y-O-Y3.4%Stage in Cycle
87、Growth SlowingSeoulNote:Seoul Industrial refers to Seoul Capital Areas prime logistics market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are as at 1Q23.Fut
88、ure supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex809001401504Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsTake-up(net)Future SupplyVacancy RateThousand sqmPercent02468,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics
89、 and Industrial Q1 202313Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Another upbeat quarter for the Logistics/Warehouse property market.”Doreen GohDirector-Research&Consultancy,SingaporeIntense competition for space persists in 1Q23
90、End-users and third-party logistics players continued to seek expansion spaces in 1Q23.This included unfulfilled demand from earlier quarters.Tenants are also beginning to request to start their renewal negotiations earlier than the typical six to nine months prior to lease expiry.No reprieve to sup
91、ply crunch despite new completions Major projects that completed in 1Q23 include 2PS1(located at 2 Pioneer Sector 1),12 Penjuru Lane and Soon Bee Huat Building at 32 Penjuru Lane,which collectively added approximately 1.2 million sq ft of new logistics/warehouse space.As the bulk of the major new co
92、mpletions in 1Q23 involved single-user facilities intended predominantly for self-use,and with 2PS1(a multi-tenanted development)understood to be fully committed,available space options for lease remained limited.Eighth consecutive quarterly rise in rents and capital values While logistics/warehouse
93、 assets remain highly sought after by investors,deal materialisation was hampered by the lack of suitable trading stock.At the time of writing,there were two major deals comprising the sale-and-leaseback of Iron Mountains warehouse at 26 Chin Bee Drive for SGD 47.00 million,and the sale of a freehol
94、d warehouse at 94C Jalan Senang for SGD 5.20 million.With demand surpassing supply in both the leasing and capital markets,this continued to drive the average islandwide logistics/warehouse rent and capital value upwards in 1Q23.Outlook:Rents and capital values en-route to reaching new highs The fas
95、ter-than-expected rent growth in 1Q23 prompted us to upgrade our full-year 2023 rent forecast,as demand is expected to continue to outpace supply.However,we keep the view that overall rent growth could moderate from 2022,taking into consideration the elevated macroeconomic headwinds.The upgraded ren
96、t growth outlook and positive yield spread over interest rates should keep logistics/warehouse assets on the radar of investors,and capital values on a rising trend.sq ft per month,gross effective on NLASGD 1.58Rental Growth Y-O-Y10.5%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingSingaporeNote:Singapore Logistics&Ind
97、ustrial refers to Singapores islandwide logistics/warehouse market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital V
98、alue IndexIndex9001404Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture SupplyThousand sqm05003003504002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202314Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indice
99、s“New supply affects vacancy,but net absorption shows a positive sign for the overall demand.”Kiert VitoonwithluckManager,ThailandStrong demand continues in the Northern and Eastern Vicinity Net absorption in 1Q23 recorded at 59,600 sqm,an improvement from 4Q22.E-Commerce and 3PL sectors have contin
100、ued to lead the demand side of the logistics market.The opening of the Shopee Sorting Center in Frasers Property Logistics Park Wangnoi 2 demonstrated the general interest in the Northern Vicinity.Average prime-grade warehouse rent rose to THB 161.4 per sqm per month in 1Q23.This increase was attrib
101、uted to the rent of properties in Samut Prakan province,where the demand for warehouse space is high due to its proximity to Bangkok.Vacancy rises as new supply enters the market New warehouse supply of 200,500 sqm was added to the market in 1Q23.This included TIP 9 Industrial Project in Samut Praka
102、n,which launched 108,600 sqm of ready-built warehouse.Meanwhile,Bangkok Free Trade Zone 5(Phase 1)in Wangnoi,Ayutthaya,and the Shopee Sorting Center at Frasers Property Logistics Park Wangnoi 2 were completed,delivering 18,900 sqm and 73,000 sqm,respectively.Due to the additional supply in the Easte
103、rn and Northern Vicinity submarkets,the vacancy rate rose to 10.3%in 1Q23,a 2.6%increase q-o-q.Market yield compresses with the low-risk,built-to-suit approach Capital value recorded at THB 31,754 per sqm,a 2.2%increase when compared to 4Q22.This was due to the increasing land price,which is partly
104、caused by the demand for landed housing competing for land in the same area as logistics facilities.Market yield dropped slightly q-o-q to 6.1%in 1Q23.Despite the rent increase recorded in the period,capital values outpaced rents,resulting in yield compression.This is to be expected with the maturit
105、y of the market,where developers have opted for a lower-risk,built-to-suit approach.Outlook:Strong supply pipeline expected in the year ahead In 2023,parts of Bangkok Free Trade Zone 3,4,and 5 will be completed,along with the rest of the TIP 9 Industrial Project.This is expected to add 290,000 sqm o
106、f supply to the market by the end of 2023,which will bring the total prime grade warehouse stock to 5,190,000 sqm.The vacancy rate is expected to increase as a result.In the near future,the average rent is expected to drop due to the additional supply.However,with the new supply spread across Samut
107、Prakan,which is highly sought-after,we do not expect a significant drop in the average rent.sqm per month,gross on GFATHB 161Rental Growth Y-O-Y6.2%Stage in CycleRents FallingThailandNote:Thailand Logistics&Industrial refers to the Greater Bangkok prime logistics market.Dotted lines indicate near-te
108、rm outlookIndex base:4Q19=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex809004Q194Q204Q214Q2
109、24Q23CompletionsTake-up(net)Future SupplyVacancy RateThousand sqmPercent200200200300400500600024681012141618JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202315Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Robust d
110、emand for Grade A spaces driven by 3PL&Retail;rents up 11.8%y-o-y.”Chandranath DeyHead-Operations,Business Development,Industrial Consulting&Integrated Logistics-Logistics&Industrial,IndiaRetail&3PL driving demand;gross absorption at 1.1 million sq ft In 1Q23,warehousing demand remained growth-orien
111、ted with net absorption of 0.66 million sq ft and gross absorption of 1.1 million sq ft.Logistics/3PL and Retail sectors continued to be the key demand drivers,contributing 70%of the demand in the quarter.Consistent preference from occupiers towards good-quality,compliant spaces has resulted in high
112、er demand for prime Grade A warehouses,resulting in more than 50%of the net demand in 1Q23 being recorded in such quality spaces.Vacancy remained stable at 17.6%with comparable supply and demand New supply of 0.75 million sq ft was added in the quarter,comprising both Grade A and Grade B projects,wi
113、th Delhi-NH8 and Sonipat Hassangarh submarkets contributing over 95%of this new supply.The vacancy rates have remained stable in the quarter at 17.6%with comparable supply and net demand.Increasing demand for Grade A spaces has reduced its vacancy by 30 bps q-o-q.Surge in rents at 11.8%y-o-y due to
114、increasing demand for Grade A The strong demand for Grade A warehousing space,consistent vacancy rates,and limited supply have resulted in a significant 11.8%y-o-y increase in rents overall.This rent surge is expected to continue in the upcoming years,primarily due to increasing investments from ins
115、titutional investors and developers and increased preference from occupiers to lease such spaces.The demand for specialised facilities with higher operational efficiency is increasing from large 3PL companies such as Yusen Logistics and Ecom Express,as well as retail companies such as Reliance and L
116、ifestyle.These two sectors have been influential in driving up rents over the quarter.Outlook:Grade A demand&supply to cross 5 million sq ft in 2023 New supply of more than 5 million sq ft is expected to be added in the Grade A space in the remaining quarters of 2023,mainly from institutionally-back
117、ed projects such as IndoSpace,Ascendas and Blackstone.Delhi-NH8 submarket is anticipated to remain the most active market in Delhi with high projected supply and demand,followed by Sonipat Hassangarh.With the strong demand from 3PL and Retail sectors for Grade A warehouses,Grade A vacancy is project
118、ed to reduce and reach close to 5%by year-end of 2023.sq ft per month,gross on GFAINR 20.6Rental Growth Y-O-Y12.0%Stage in CycleRents RisingDelhiNote:Delhi Logistics&Industrial refers to NCR Delhis overall Grade A and Grade B warehousing&light manufacturing market.Dotted lines indicate near-term out
119、lookIndex base:4Q18=100 Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexIndex9001404Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture SupplyThousand sqm020
120、04006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202316Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Record stock delivery and rental growth were evident in 2022 amid considerable
121、yield softening.”Annabel McFarlaneSenior Director-Research,AustraliaSubdued take-up continues amid low availability Gross take-up in the Sydney industrial market was below average for the fourth consecutive quarter in 1Q23,totalling 110,150 sqm.Total take-up reduced by 5%relative to 4Q22 and was 51%
122、below the 10-year quarterly average(225,520 sqm).Demand was led by the Transport,Postal&Warehousing sector accounting for 35%of gross take-up(38,150 sqm).The Manufacturing and Construction sectors were responsible for the majority of remaining take-up,accounting for 19%(21,330 sqm)and 13%(14,720 sqm
123、),respectively.New supply continues to be impacted by construction delays Three projects reached practical completion in 1Q23,totalling 68,970 sqm of new stock,a level 49%below the 10-year quarterly average(135,970 sqm).Despite supply chain disruptions easing,new stock delivery continues to be restr
124、icted by high construction costs and increasingly limited land availability.JLL is currently tracking about 617,200 sqm of stock under construction in the Sydney industrial market,38%of which has been pre-committed to.Over the next six months,299,900 sqm of new stock is due to come to market,38%of w
125、hich is currently pre-committed.New stock delivery over the next six months will be heavily weighted towards the Outer South West precinct(64%).Strong rental growth remains,following record year Subdued speculative stock delivery and increasingly tight availability continue to place upward pressure
126、on rental rates.Prime rental rates grew across all precincts in 1Q23,with the Inner West experiencing the most significant growth at 8.7%q-o-q.Secondary rents outpaced the prime market in 1Q23,with the Outer South West experiencing the highest growth at 10.5%q-o-q.Transaction volumes increased by 9%
127、in 1Q23,totalling AUD 850.8 million,67%above the 10-year quarterly average(AUD 510.7 million).New development sites accounted for 44%of transaction volumes,while investment sales comprised 32%.One owner-occupier acquisition accounted for the remaining 25%.Outlook:Further rental growth and yield soft
128、ening to remain Despite subdued gross take-up,demand for space from occupiers remains strong.However,this is ultimately restricted due to continued low vacancy and limited speculative stock delivery.Easing supply chain delays,tempering construction costs,and existing structural tailwinds are likely
129、to support confidence and strong new stock delivery in the Sydney industrial market.Rental growth is expected to remain strong over the remainder of the year before stabilising in 2024.Further yield softening is expected amid continued rental growth in a high bond rate environment.sqm per annum,net
130、on GFAAUD 194Rental Growth Y-O-Y40.4%Stage in CycleRents RisingSydneyNote:Sydney Logistics&Industrial refers to Sydneys industrial market(all grades).Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the Outer Central Wests distribution warehouse/logistics sector
131、.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up and completions are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up and completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the Outer Central Wests overall industrial sector.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex8010012
132、002202404Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsTake-up(gross)Future SupplyThousand sqm005006007008009002002120222023JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202317Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial I
133、ndices“Limited available stock and strong occupier demand resulted in significant rental growth in 1Q23.”Annabel McFarlaneSenior Director-Research,AustraliaTake-up levels rebound over the quarter Gross take-up rebounded in 1Q23,increasing 16%q-o-q to about 211,300 sqm,although quarterly gross take-u
134、p is 15%below the 10-year quarterly average of 248,400 sqm.Despite high levels of enquiry from occupiers,availabilities remaining at a record low coupled with limited speculative stock delivery further restricted take-up totals.Take-up was weighted heavily towards the Transport,Postal and Warehousin
135、g sector,which accounted for 33%of take-up in 1Q23(68,800 sqm).This was followed by the Construction sector which accounted for 20%of total take-up(42,700 sqm).Completion levels significantly decreased New stock delivery decreased significantly by 82%q-o-q to about 56,000 sqm,a level less than half
136、the 10-year quarterly average of 149,100 sqm.This is a result of the labour shortages,high construction costs and supply chain disruptions that were experienced over 2022 affecting the quarters completion level.Only four projects reached practical completion in 1Q23,48%of which was pre-committed to.
137、All completions of the quarter were in Melbournes industrial West precinct.An elevated wave of supply delivery is expected next quarter,followed by completion levels below historical averages over the back half of 2023.Accelerated rental growth was recorded There was significant rental growth record
138、ed in the Melbourne industrial market in 1Q23.Prime asset quarterly rental growth ranged from 0%to 9.7%.Secondary rents grew between 0%and 12.2%q-o-q,continuing to outpace prime rental growth due to a lack of availability.The highest quarterly growth in both the prime and secondary market was record
139、ed in the North precinct.Transaction volumes over the quarter totalled AUD 350 million,a 28%decrease from 4Q22.However,1Q23 transaction volumes remained well above the 10-year quarterly average of AUD 240.4 million.Transactions for investment purposes accounted for 57%of transaction volumes,while de
140、velopment projects comprised 43%.Outlook:Rental growth expected to stabilise amid further yield softening Strong rental growth is expected to persist in the medium term,however at a decelerated rate from the growth recorded in recent quarters.Increasingly low availability continues to drive rental g
141、rowth in the Melbourne industrial market.Reversions in land values are expected to continue in the short term,following substantial growth.Further yield softening over the balance of 2023 is expected as a result of elevated interest rates,high bond rates and an uncertain economic environment.Acceler
142、ated rental growth has resulted in a positive quarter of capital value growth,however we expect negative growth over the remainder of 2023.sqm per annum,net on GFAAUD 127Rental Growth Y-O-Y16.1%Stage in CycleRents RisingMelbourneNote:Melbourne Logistics&Industrial refers to Melbournes industrial mar
143、ket(all grades).Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the South Easts distribution warehouse/logistics sector.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up and completions are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up and completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for t
144、he remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the South Easts overall industrial sector.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex8090001801902004Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsTake-up(gross)Future SupplyThousand sqm2002003003504
145、00450500JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202318Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Substantial delivery of projects and strong occupier demand were the main themes of 1Q23.”Annabel McFarlaneSenior Director-Researc
146、h,AustraliaStrong occupier demand in line with historical averages Business conditions are expected to slow in the near term given tightening consumer budgets,hence occupier demand is expected to slow as well.Occupier activity(3,000 sqm)over 1Q23 was positive,reaching about 124,100 sqm of gross take
147、-up,which is in line with the 10-year quarterly average of 128,000 sqm.Occupants within the Transport,Postal&Warehousing industries accounted for the most significant amount of total take-up(40%),followed by occupiers in Retail Trade(33%)and Manufacturing(19%).Substantial completions of projects com
148、e to fruition over 1Q23 Despite the delays experienced to the delivery of projects from the previous quarter,the completion to a substantial number of projects came to fruition over 1Q23.Quarterly completions totalled 138,500 sqm,of which 81%was pre-committed.Of the projects that completed,the major
149、ity were delivered within the Southern precinct(83.7%),followed by the Northern(2.6%)and Trade Coast(13.8%)precincts.We currently anticipate about 535,200 sqm of stock under construction to be delivered over the course of the new year.Investment transaction volumes slow Strong demand and limited spa
150、ce across the Brisbane industrial sector has allowed landlords to continue to increase rents over 1Q23 across all precincts.Quarterly growth in the Southern precinct reached 6.0%,and reached 8.2%q-o-q in the Trade Coast.Rents were stable in the Northern precinct over the quarter,influenced by rental
151、 basket changes for the new year.Increasing caution among investors,given elevated interest rates,has seen yields continue to soften on a quarterly basis.Softening of 25 basis points(bps)was recorded across Northern and Southern precincts,while Trade Coast prime midpoint yield softened by 20 bps.The
152、 Trade Coast maintains stronger capital values given its prime location and heightened occupier demand.Outlook:Occupier demand to slow in the near term Pre-lease activity continues to be prevalent as tenants try to secure their industrial needs with few options.We can expect demand to moderate amid
153、global macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowdown in business conditions.We can expect further delays to the delivery of developments going forward,amid inflated construction costs and labour shortages.Much of the supply pipeline remains in the Southern precinct,given greater availability of land in c
154、omparison to other precincts.sqm per annum,net on GFAAUD 134Rental Growth Y-O-Y15.9%Stage in CycleRents RisingBrisbaneNote:Brisbane Logistics&Industrial refers to Brisbanes industrial market(all grades).Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the Southe
155、rn markets distribution warehouse/logistics sector.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up and completions are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up and completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the Southern markets overall industrial sector.Source:JLLRe
156、ntal Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2380900140150160CompletionsTake-up(gross)Future SupplyThousand sqm200200200300400500600JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202319Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market In
157、sights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Upward momentum stalls in Perths industrial market.”Annabel McFarlaneSenior Director-Research,AustraliaOccupier demand slows in 1Q23 Occupier demand in the Perth market decreased over 1Q23,with 21,300 sqm of gross take-up recorded across three major occupi
158、er moves(3,000 sqm).Quarterly gross take-up declined for the second consecutive period.The Perth industrial market recorded 238,500 sqm of gross take-up over the last 12 months,above the 10-year average of 207,100 sqm.Demand was led by the Transport,Postal&Warehousing(29.3%),Manufacturing(19.2%)and
159、Wholesale Trade(12.6%)sectors.Pre-lease activity accounted for 34.4%of gross take-up in the previous year.New supply additions remain soft No major developments(3,000 sqm)reached completion in 1Q23.Nevertheless,the last 12 months has seen 78,800 sqm of new supply added across six projects.There are
160、seven projects totalling 80,400 sqm currently under construction and expected to be completed by 4Q23.The potential future supply pipeline has seen an uplift,with eight projects in the plans-approved or plans-submitted stages totalling 92,500 sqm.Rents increase across all Perth industrial precincts
161、Average prime existing net rents increased across all three precincts in 1Q23,marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase in rents.Rents in the South precinct increased by 4.1%over the quarter,while the North and East precincts also recorded increases of 4.0%and 3.7%respectively.Annually,renta
162、l growth was the strongest on record across all three precincts.Rising cost of debt pressures has continued to slow investor demand,leading to yield decompression for industrial and logistics assets.Prime yields decompressed by 25 basis points across all three precincts in 1Q23 to a mid-point of 5.5
163、0%.Outlook:Rental growth is expected to maintain upward momentum Rental growth is expected to remain positive in the medium term,driven by strong demand and scarcity in supply.Nevertheless,with global economic conditions set to deteriorate in 2023,growth expectations are set to be softer.Occupier de
164、mand is anticipated to remain elevated as long as broader economic conditions remain positive.The e-commerce sector is expected to continue to lead sectoral demand,driven by strong ongoing consumer spending tailwinds.sqm per annum,net on GFAAUD 140Rental Growth Y-O-Y28.8%Stage in CycleRents RisingPe
165、rthNote:Perth Logistics&Industrial refers to Perths industrial market(all grades).Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the Easts distribution warehouse/logistics sector.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up and completions are year-end annual.For 2023,t
166、ake-up and completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the Easts overall industrial sector.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23800180CompletionsTake-up(gross)Future SupplyThousand sqm201820192020
167、20204060800JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202320Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Occupiers in Adelaide are still faced with a lack of available space to lease.”Annabel McFarlaneSenior Di
168、rector-Research,AustraliaOccupier activity decreases in 1Q23 Occupier activity decreased in 1Q23 with about 24,000 sqm of quarterly gross take-up recorded.The majority of gross take-up was recorded in the North West precinct(77%)with the balance recorded in the North East precinct(23%).The largest r
169、ecorded occupier move in 1Q23 was by appliance manufacturer Daikin,which leased 7,580 sqm in Centennials Royal Park Distribution Centre(North West precinct).Supply decreases in 1Q23 Completions totalled 34,200 sqm in 1Q23,decreasing from 81,900 sqm in 4Q22,which was the strongest quarterly figure si
170、nce 4Q20.This brought supply over the last 12 months to 153,800 sqm.The largest completion over the quarter was the 21,980-sqm Apex Steel Distribution Centre at 36 Caribou Drive,Direk in the Outer North precinct.It was developed by the Centuria Diversified Property Fund(CDPF).Average prime rents inc
171、rease across most precincts in 1Q23 Average prime net face rents increased across most precincts in 1Q23.The largest increase was recorded in the North West precinct(3.9%q-o-q),followed by the Outer North precinct(2.3%q-o-q).Scarcity of availability continues to place upwards pressure on rents,parti
172、cularly in larger warehouses where there is limited speculative development.Yields continued to soften in the Adelaide industrial market,with decompression of 25 basis points recorded across all precincts.Outlook:Occupiers and investors likely to remain cautious in 2023 Business confidence is expect
173、ed to deteriorate further in the face of ongoing economic volatility globally.However,undersupply of modern warehouse space to market will remain a factor in occupier activity.Strong lease covenants will likely increase in importance for investors as the appetite for risk decreases.It is expected th
174、at yields will decompress further over the balance of the year.sqm per annum,net on GFAAUD 114Rental Growth Y-O-Y10.4%Stage in CycleRents RisingAdelaideNote:Adelaide Logistics&Industrial refers to Adelaides industrial market(all grades).Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Finan
175、cial Indicators are for the North Wests distribution warehouse/logistics sector.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up and completions are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the North Wests o
176、verall industrial sector.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23800180200220CompletionsTake-up(gross)Future SupplyThousand sqm200204060800180200JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202321Logistics and Industrial
177、 markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“The last decades reducing vacancy trend continues,down a further 10 bps to reach 0.60%.”Gavin ReadHead of Research,New ZealandDemand remains robust as supply struggles to keep up Approximately,North Shore has 17,0
178、00 sqm of available space with a vacancy rate of 0.8%,Manukau has 24,000 sqm of available space with a vacancy rate of 0.4%,and Auckland City has 33,000 sqm of available space with a vacancy rate of 0.7%.For a new industrial property,investor requirements include modern construction preferably with
179、sustainability components,long-term lease with fixed growth(and defined market reviews)in known prime locations in a growing logistics sector,and quality tenants.Over 100,000 sqm of industrial space added during 2H22 In spite of land shortages,the last few months of 2022 saw several completions,whic
180、h added a total of about 101,600 sqm of net leasing area in the market.Despite a strong development pipeline,cost of construction remains a headwind for developers and owners as they consider design options for new builds and redevelopments.Some notable developments for the City precinct include a 8
181、,500-sqm NZD 20.0 million warehouse for Arnotts,by Stride Property,at 437-439 Rosebank Road,Avondale,and a 2,750-sqm NZD 5.0 million cold storage facility for Fonterra,by Southpark Corporation,at 10 Southpark Place in Penrose.Transaction activity ramps up at the start of the year After increasing by
182、 6.1%in the previous quarter,average net prime rents rose again,this time by 3.9%,to reach NZD 205 per sqm per annum.This represents a 14.3%y-o-y increase in prime rents.Precinct-wise,net prime rents increased by 4.3%(+NZD 8 per sqm)for the North Shore,by 2.5%(+NZD 5 per sqm)for Auckland City,and by
183、 4.9%(+NZD 10 per sqm)for Manukau.A significant transaction at the start of 2023 was the sale of 82 Tidal Road in Mangere,a 16,812-sqm property,for NZD 37.2 million.After compressing significantly in the last 10 years,and reaching an all-time low in 2021 at 3.88%,Auckland prime net yields have now s
184、oftened 112 bps.In the quarter,yields softened further by 13 bps to 5.00%,with an expectation to soften further during 2023.Outlook:Occupiers become more and more selective Despite rising rents,tenants will pay a premium for supply chain efficiencies.Warehouse location is more important than ever,wi
185、th proximity to urban centres critical to satisfying the demands of same-day delivery.As a result,investors and developers are likely to become more and more selective towards prime warehouses in good locations.For both local and overseas investors,the interest in industrial assets comes from contin
186、uing strong fundamentals.Although yields are rising,demand remains for prime properties,as low vacancies continue to push rents upwards.However,as investors start being more selective,it is expected that for the longer WALTs,pre-determined market reviews will be favoured.sqm per annum,net on GFANZD
187、205Rental Growth Y-O-Y13.9%Stage in CycleRents RisingAucklandNote:Auckland Logistics&Industrial refers to Aucklands prime logistics market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,take-up,completions and vacancy rate are year-end annual.For 2023,take-up,co
188、mpletions and vacancy rate are as at 4Q22.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2360800180CompletionsTake-up(net)Future SupplyVacancy RateThousand sqmPercent003502002120222023JL
189、L Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 202322Logistics and Industrial markets|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Note:All physical indicators charts are based on the local measurement standard-GFA or NLA.Office rental figures at the top of each market page refer to the main submarket in ea
190、ch city.JLL Research-Asia PacificAsia PacificRoddy Allan Chief Research Officer-Asia Pacific +852 2846 5790 Greater China Greater ChinaBruce Pang Head of Research-Greater China+852 2846 5000 Hong KongCathie Chung Senior Director-Hong Kong+852 2846 5237 ChinaDaniel Yao Head of Research-China+86 86 61
191、335456 TaiwanJosh Hsu Head of Research-Taiwan+886 2 8758 9898 MacauMark Wong Director-Macau+853 2871 8822 North AsiaJapanTakeshi Akagi Head of Research-Japan+81 3 5501 9235 South KoreaVeronica Shim Head of Research-Korea+82 2 3704 8845 South East AsiaSingaporeTay Huey Ying Head of Research-Singapore
192、+65 6494 3761 IndonesiaYunus Karim Head of Research-Indonesia+62 21 2922 3888 PhilippinesJanlo Delosreyes Head of Research-Philippines+63 2 902 0888 ThailandNichakamol Horungruang Senior Manager-Thailand+66 2624 6400 VietnamTrang Le Head of Research-Vietnam+84 8 3910 3968 Malaysia Yulia Nikulicheva
193、Head of Research&Consultancy-Malaysia+60 19 226 4388 West AsiaIndiaDr Samantak Das Head of Research-India+91 22 6620 7575 Australasia AustraliaAndrew Ballantyne Head of Research-Australia+61 2 9220 8412 New ZealandGavin Read Head of Research-New Zealand JLL Asia Pacific Logistics and Industrial Q1 2
194、02323|Logistics and Industrial Market Insights|Logistics and Industrial markets|Asia Pacific1 Paya Lebar Link#10-08 PLQ2 Singapore 408533 tel +65 6220 3888 fax+65 6438 3361 .sgAbout JLLFor over 200 years,JLL(NYSE:JLL),a leading global commercial real estate and investment management company,has help
195、ed clients buy,build,occupy and invest in a variety of commercial,industrial,hotel,residential and retail properties.A Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$20.9 billion and operations in over 80 countries around the world,our more than 103,000 employees bring the power of a global platform com
196、bined with local expertise.Driven by our purpose to shape the future of real estate for a better world,we help our clients,people and communities SEE A BRIGHTER WAYSM.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit .Americas200 East R
197、andolph Drive Chicago IL 60601 tel +1 312 782 5800 fax+1 312 782 4339 EMEA30 Warwick Street London W1B 5NH tel +44 20 7493 4933 fax+44 20 7087 5555 www.jll.co.ukAdelaide Auckland Bangalore Bangkok Beijing Brisbane Canberra Cebu City Chandigarth Chengdu Chennai Chongqing Christchurch Coimbatore Colom
198、bo Guangzhou Gurgaon Hangzhou Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Hong Kong Hyderabad Jakarta Kolkata Kuala Lumpur Atlanta Austin Baltimore Boston Buenos Aires Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Columbus Dallas Dayton Denver Detroit Ft.Lauderdale Houston Kansas City Los Angeles McLean,VA Mexico City Miami Minneapolis
199、Monterrey Montreal New Orleans New York Orange County OrlandoAbu Dhabi Amsterdam Antwerp Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Brussels Bucharest Budapest Dubai Dublin Dusseldorf Edinburgh Eindhoven Frankfurt Glasgow Gothenburg The Hague Hamburg Helsinki Kiev Leeds Lisbon Liverpool London Luxembourg LyonMacau
200、Manila Melbourne Mumbai Nanjing New Delhi Osaka Pasig Perth Phuket Pune Qingdao Quezon Seoul Shanghai Shenyang Shenzhen Singapore Sydney Taguig Taipei Tianjin Tokyo Wellington Wuhan XianParsippany,NJ Philadelphia Phoenix Pittsburgh Portland,OR Rio de Janeiro Sacramento St.Louis Salt Lake City San Di
201、ego San Francisco Santiago Sao Paulo Seattle Tampa Toronto Vancouver Washington DCMadrid Manchester Marbella Milan Moscow Munich Norwich Paris Prague Rotterdam Seville Stockholm St.Petersburg Tel Aviv Utrecht Valencia Warsaw WiesbadenJones Lang LaSalle 2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reser
202、ved.The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal.All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential.Reproduction of any part of this
203、document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation.It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle.All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable;however,no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy