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1、Residential ResearchLeasing and sales activity recover across the regionAsia Pacific|Q1 2023ContentsResidential markets06 Hong Kong07 Beijing08 Shanghai09 Guangzhou10 Singapore11 Bangkok12 Jakarta13 Kuala Lumpur14 Manila15 Ho Chi Minh City16 Delhi17 Mumbai18 Bengaluru19 Chennai20 Sydney21 Melbourne2
2、2 BrisbaneJLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20232ForewordResidential market conditions across Asia Pacific remained diverse during the first quarter of the year.There were signs of improvement in Mainland China and Hong Kong as pent-up buyer demand was released following the easing of COVID-19 restric
3、tions.Robust demand persisted in Singapore and supported a pick-up in sales volumes;whereas buyer sentiment in some parts of the region was weighed down by the higher interest rate environment.Despite the mixed picture,capital values generally displayed resiliency with most markets recording modest
4、growth.The portrait for the leasing market was generally similar and rents also edged higher.The quarters report will provide a detailed analysis of major residential markets in Asia Pacific.We hope you find this publication both timely and useful in enabling you to make informed decisions,and we we
5、lcome your feedback.Roddy AllanChief Research Officer Asia PacificJLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20233Mainland China3.05.5Growth forecasts revised up with private consumption and fixed investment to lead the recovery while exports face dimmer prospects given a softer outlook for the global economy
6、and external demand Indonesia5.33.9Challenging global backdrop are expected to weigh on momentum with exports slowing,while weaker confidence challenges domestic demand as the impact of monetary tightening flows through Japan1.00.6Domestic demand to increasingly carry growth momentum as the weak ext
7、ernal environment is likely to drag on the performance of exports and the manufacturing sector South Korea2.60.5Ongoing downturn in the semiconductor cycle to drag on production with the global economy set to slow further.Domestic demand to feel the strain of tight financial conditions and soft busi
8、ness sentiment Singapore3.70.4Export weakness as soft external demand conditions drag on trade.Domestic demand is also likely to moderate as the uncertain growth outlook weighs on employment and incomes Australia3.71.6Higher interest rates and cost pressures to curb household spending.Trade should r
9、emain a positive impetus of growth partly supported by strength from services exports amidst a greater return of students and tourists Hong Kong-3.52.2Recovery strengthening with support from domestic demand and the return of tourists,particularly from Mainland China.Export outlook,however,remains c
10、hallenging against the backdrop of weaker growth in advanced economiesIndia6.74.8Consumption growth to slow but remain a positive driver.Global financial sector stress and softer global economy to feed through to weaker investment and external demand Real GDP(%y-o-y change)20222023F2023 OutlookMajor
11、 EconomiesOutlook for Major EconomiesSource:Oxford Economics,April 2023JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20234|Residential markets|GrowthSlowingRentsRisingRentsFallingDeclineSlowingKuala LumpurMelbourneJakartaHo Chi Minh CityBeijing,GuangzhouBangkokSydneyBrisbaneSingapore*Manila,ShanghaiHong Kong*Capi
12、tal ValuesRental Values10.510.1BangkokSingapore Ho Chi Minh CityKuala LumpurShanghaiManilaJakartaBeijingHong KongGuangzhou5.99.48.64.51.21.22.60.20.20.01.3-1.41.3-6.02.21.72.31.4SingaporeSouth KoreaHong KongJapanAP OthersChinaAustralia02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000200720082009200
13、001820212022 YTD 20232020USD millionsResidential Rental Property Clock,1Q23Residential Rental&Capital Value Changes,Yearly%Changes,1Q23Direct Residential Real Estate Investment 2007-1Q23*Luxurious Source:JLL,Real Estate Intelligence Service,1Q23Source:JLL(Real Estate Intelligen
14、ce Service),1Q23Figures relate to the major submarket in each citySource:JLL(Real Estate Intelligence Service),1Q23Figures refer to transactions over USD 5 millionJLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20235|Residential markets|Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Pent-up demand boosts market activities as
15、 market sentiment stabilises.”Cathie Chung Senior Director,Hong KongHome prices rebound as market activity accelerates Primary market sales volume rebounded in January and February to 363 and 655 units respectively,but was still below the monthly average of 860 units in 2022.Most projects launched i
16、n 1Q23 were competitively priced and well-received by the market.All 179 units of In One(Phase 1B)in Homantin and 86%of 400 units of Grand Jet(Phase 2)were offloaded on the first day of the project launch.The improved economic prospects has facilitated the release of pent-up demand.Also,the 25-bps r
17、eduction on the cap for Hibor-based mortgage plans and adjustment on ad valorem stamp duty incentivised some potential home buyers to enter the market.Meanwhile,demand from Mainland Chinese buyers grew noticeably after the government launched the Top Talent Pass Scheme.Private housing land supply ta
18、rget reaches 5-year high The total private housing land supply in FY2024 is estimated to produce about 20,550 flats,the highest target since FY2019.12 residential sites in the FY2024 Land Sale Program are expected to yield 9,120 units.For the first quarter of FY2024,the private housing land supply i
19、s estimated to yield around 2,760 units,including two residential sites in Tsuen Wan and Kennedy Town.In 4Q22,the number of occupation permits issued for luxury units declined to 11 units from 55 units in 3Q22,including four units at St Michel(Phase 2)in Shatin and two units at Grand Victoria I in C
20、heung Sha Wan.Luxury home prices edge up with rising transaction volume The return to normalcy in Hong Kong prompted businesses and expatriate families to re-evaluate their locational choices.The number of enquiries and viewings in the luxury leasing market increased,though the rebound in overall ta
21、ke-up was less pronounced at the early stage of recovery.Rental values dropped by 0.4%q-o-q in 1Q23.Amid strengthened investment confidence,luxury residential transaction volume surged 86%,and luxury capital values increased by 0.7%q-o-q in 1Q23.Among notable luxury sales transactions,a unit at Moun
22、t Nicholson was sold for HKD 390 million or HKD 84,856 per sq ft,SA.Outlook:Amid uncertainties,market to move sideways despite mild recovery While the housing market appears to recover after border reopening,the normalisation process could be bumpy due to uncertainties surrounding the sector.The hig
23、h level of unsold stock and elevated interest rate remain the key overhangs to the housing market.Moreover,punitive stamp duties on transactions and any adverse change in interest rate prospects could dampen market sentiment.Luxury residential rentals are expected to regain momentum in 2023 as more
24、expats relocate back to Hong Kong.However,demand may take longer to fully materialise as initially it should gravitate towards short-term leases and serviced apartments.The limits on housing budget are also likely to cap the potential rental rebound.Luxury rental values are expected to remain broadl
25、y flat in 2023.sq ft per month,net on SAHKD 37.7 Rental Growth Y-O-Y-1.4%Stage in CycleRents StableHong KongNote:Hong Kong Residential refers to Hong Kongs overall luxury residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end
26、annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2380859095100105110CompletionsFuture Supply005006007002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Resident
27、ial Q1 20236Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“The market warms as sales reach a new quarterly high.”Mi YangHead of Research,North ChinaSales perform well as accumulated demand is released Under the improving market sentiment and increasing supply,sales showed a strong recovery as accumulated dema
28、nd was released in the quarter.Despite the impact of the Spring Festival,a total of 1,383 luxury apartment units were sold,up 20.3%q-o-q and 63.1%y-o-y,a new quarterly high since 2014.The introduction of favourable policies such as the pilot programme for real estate private equity funds has boosted
29、 market confidence and driven the growth of market activity.Reduction in new supply due to the Spring Festival holiday There was a total of 2,048 new units launched in 1Q23,a decrease of 6.0%q-o-q and 23.2%y-o-y.In addition to the impact caused by the Spring Festival holiday,the accelerated entry of
30、 new projects in the second half of 2022 also led to a decrease in the number of projects that launched in 1Q23.The first centralised land auction in 2023 was finalised in February.A total of six land plots were sold at a premium rate of 7.81%,the second highest since the previous year.Developers we
31、re more rational in acquiring land.The sales of plots with good locations were highly competitive,while remote plots were sold at the reserve price.The growth rate of high-end housing prices turns positive Developers scaled back promotional efforts as market sentiment improved.The sales of high-qual
32、ity projects in core locations have driven up housing prices accordingly.The negative growth rate value of luxury apartment prices in the previous two quarters have turned positive in 1Q23,recording a slight increase of 0.2%q-o-q.After the Spring Festival,leasing market activity has increased,result
33、ing in a slight increase in rents and pushing it up by 0.3%q-o-q.The rebound in demand has led landlords to reduce their willingness to cut prices.Outlook:Sales expected to be stable in the short term Considering that projects that entered the market at the end of the quarter will gradually destock,
34、the sales volume is expected to remain high in the short term.The accelerated enforcement of existing favourable policies has further enhanced the optimistic expectation of the market,which should support the continuous release of housing demand.High activity in the market is expected to drive a sho
35、rt-term rise in prices.However,considering that the main tone of maintaining market stability remains unchanged,price growth is forecast to remain moderate in the long term.sqm per month,gross on GFARMB 149 Rental Growth Y-O-Y0.0%Stage in CycleRents RisingBeijingNote:Beijing Residential refers to Be
36、ijings overall luxury and high-end residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the overall luxury market.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of
37、2023.Physical Indicators are for the overall luxury market.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex90951001051104Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture Supply01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20237Physical I
38、ndicatorsFinancial Indices“Home buying sentiment is likely to improve further,especially in the high-end segment.”Daniel YaoHead of Research,ChinaSales volumes contract amid reduced new supply Mass-market primary sales volumes declined 4.2%q-o-q and 4.7%y-o-y to about 2.5 million sqm in 1Q23,as a re
39、sult of the quarters decline in new project launches.Nevertheless,Shanghais sales momentum improved slightly as 47%of newly-launched projects overperformed in terms of pre-commitment rates,up from 36%in 4Q22.The quarter continued to see sales performance diverge between high-end and mass-market proj
40、ects,with demand for high-end projects remaining strong.That said,the quarters limited new high-end supply meant that high-end sales declined 33.0%q-o-q to 703 units.Pace of new launches slows Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in January and a slowdown in new project launches in early February
41、,the quarter only saw about 1.8 million sqm launch in Shanghais housing market,down 56.3%q-o-q and 33.7%y-o-y.In the high-end segment,two projects supplied 209 units to the market in 1Q23.Gree Real Estates Hyde One project in the Qiantan Riverside area launched 163 units at an average selling price
42、of 129,800 per sqm.The project was well-received by homebuyers for its good location,scenic views and large unit layouts.Secondary prices stabilise due to limited new primary supply Primary prices increased by 0.7%q-o-q to RMB 132,500 per sqm,with price caps remaining relatively loose.Meanwhile,limi
43、ted new supply led many homebuyers to return to the secondary submarket,resulting in secondary prices recovering by 0.2%q-o-q to RMB 107,200 per sqm,up from a 1.6%drop the previous quarter.High-end leasing activity saw a modest recovery driven by improving demand from non-local tenants returning to
44、Shanghai,as well as resilient leasing demand from local upgraders.This helped average rents to rebound,rising 0.2%q-o-q following a 1.1%drop last quarter.Average rents ended the quarter at RMB 173.5 per sqm per month.Outlook:High-end supply to remain substantial over 2023 Shanghai has recently launc
45、hed a plan to accelerate the renovation of historic districts and villages in core urban areas,and this is expected to keep high-end supply stable over 2023.Coupled with solid demand from upgraders,we expect high-end sales momentum to remain strong.Primary prices will likely increase further,as loos
46、e price caps are expected to remain in place over the short term.On the other hand,following the gradual recovery of home sales in the secondary market,secondary prices are likely to recover further in the second half of 2023.sqm per month,gross on GFARMB 173Rental Growth Y-O-Y-0.1%Stage in CycleDec
47、line SlowingShanghaiNote:Shanghai Residential refers to Shanghais high-end residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLL
48、Rental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2390955120CompletionsFuture Supply05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 20238Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Guangzhou resident
49、ial market shows signs of recovery in the quarter.”Silvia ZengHead of Research,South ChinaThe influx of previous wait-and-see buyers stimulates demand After the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions,pent-up demand from home upgraders and investors was released in the market over the quarter,as buyers exp
50、ected a price increase in the overall market.The rebound in Guangzhous high-end residential market sentiment was led mainly by the recovery of the secondary sales market in the Zhujiang New Town(ZJNT)precinct,whereas demand in other submarkets remained stable.Meanwhile,the primary high-end sales fro
51、m existing projects saw a mild increase compared to the previous quarter.Several new projects launch in 1Q23 Several new high-end projects and phases entered the market in the quarter,adding 2,161 units to supply.Among them,around 1,388 units came from four new projects,namely Zhujiang Tianli in Tia
52、nhe,Baietan Mansion and Binjiang Shangdu in Liwan,and Zhonghai Lufu in Baiyun.There were no new completions in the quarter.Rising demand in the central area drives up capital values Several developers have stopped offering discounts in the quarter,leading to a price increase in the primary residenti
53、al market.In the secondary market,capital value(CV)growth was mainly driven by active demand in ZJNT,whereas other submarkets remained stable.As a result,primary CV edged up by 0.6%q-o-q,and secondary CV rose by 1.5%q-o-q.Business activities across the CBD in Guangzhou gradually recovered in the qua
54、rter,boosting leasing demand in the central area.ZJNT again led the rental growth,while rents in other areas only saw minor growth.Overall rents increased by 1.3%q-o-q in the quarter.Outlook:Residential market recovery is likely to persist The remaining pent-up demand should continue in the high-end
55、 residential market in ZJNT,and spread to the other submarkets.Improving market sentiment will likely attract more wait-and-see buyers.In the next 12 months,demand for high-end secondary residential properties is expected to maintain its growth momentum.Developers will likely see an improvement in l
56、iquidity backed by the governments steady policy support.The supply in the primary high-end market is expected to pick up gradually.Given the outlook that active market sentiment will persist,mild capital value growth in both the primary and secondary high-end markets are projected to resume in the
57、near term.sqm per month,gross on GFARMB 93.1Rental Growth Y-O-Y-0.3%Stage in CycleRents RisingGuangzhouNote:Guangzhou Residential refers to Guangzhous luxury residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 20
58、23,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2390955120CompletionsFuture SupplyUnits2002,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Resid
59、ential Q1 20239Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Prime market activity rises on higher new and resale volumes during the quarter.”Chia Siew ChuinHead of Residential Research,SingaporeOverall prime sales pick up on the back of more new sales While there were no fresh prime project launches in 1Q23
60、,new home sales rose 33.2%q-o-q due to sustained buyer interest in ongoing projects in the primary market.Top performing projects include the previously launched Pullman Residences Newton(51 units sold at a median price of SGD 3,183 per sq ft)and Leedon Green(50 units sold at a median price of SGD 2
61、,957 per sq ft).Prime resale volume inched up 7.1%q-o-q,contributing to an overall rise in prime sales by 18.9%q-o-q.However,the price expectation mismatch between buyers and sellers continued to limit resale transaction volume during the quarter.Sellers maintained their price expectations partly du
62、e to higher replacement costs while buyers remained prudent amid higher interest rates and costs of living.Prime vacancy inches up as more new completions come on stream Available information as at end-March showed that seven prime projects were completed in 1Q23:120 Grange,Jervois Treasures,Parksui
63、tes,Jervois Prive,One Draycott,and two serviced apartment projects-one at Mount Elizabeth Link and the other at River Valley Road.However,subject to government processes,some of these projects could receive their Temporary Occupation Permits at a later date.Prime net new supply in 1Q23 was lower q-o
64、-q.In 2023,newly-completed supply is expected to peak with an increase in vacancy,relieving some upward pressure on rents as available supply for lease rises to meet demand.Rental growth slows as resistance sets in Prices of prime non-landed properties in 1Q23 grew at a slower pace q-o-q,as buyers w
65、ere less willing to commit to higher prices despite the limited stock available for resale in view of weaker economic conditions,high interest rates and increased costs of living.The pace of growth for prime rents also slowed q-o-q as new completions come on stream,offering prospective tenants with
66、more options for lease.Resistance from tenants toward further rent hikes,partly due to rising costs of living,could have also kept growth in check during the quarter.Outlook:Prime market expected to remain healthy High interest rates,a weaker outlook and multiple rounds of property cooling measures
67、could moderate price growth.The recent spike in Additional Buyers Stamp Duty for foreigners purchasing any residential property could temper the nascent recovery in foreign buying demand.Some may lease temporarily while monitoring the market or buy homes only when they become permanent residents or
68、citizens.A higher property tax payable for non-owner-occupied residential properties in 2023 could motivate landlords to pass down the cost to tenants.However,strong resistance towards further rental hikes amid higher costs of living,and an influx of new completions,which would provide prospective t
69、enants with more options for lease,are likely to cap rent growth.sq ft per month,gross on NLASGD 6.31Rental Growth Y-O-Y20.1%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingSingaporeNote:Singapore Residential refers to Singapores overall prime and luxury residential markets.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex
70、base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRV Index(Luxury)CV Index(Luxury)RV Index(Prime)CV Index(Prime)Index70809001404Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsFuture Supply050
71、01,0001,5002,0002,5002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202310Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“The market has strengthened and is expected to grow.”Kiert VitoonwithluckManager,ThailandSlow yet steady improvement in demand Since the beginning of 2023
72、,the mood in the condominium market has continued to improve,particularly in the newly launched projects.Nonetheless,the primary demand source will likely remain domestic.The tourism market has experienced growth,but this has yet to spread to the market for acquiring condominiums.As a result,the ren
73、tal market has become especially intriguing.The unsold condominium rate decreased by 40 bps q-o-q to 4.9%,which translates to 3,562 available units across the market.Similarly,the flat vacancy rate has decreased to 7.1%,with 11 fully occupied apartments.Several expats shifted to large units in advan
74、ce so their families could arrive sooner.A new wave of supply has not yet hit the market Condominium inventory remained at 72,768 units due to a lack of new completions.The Romm Convent was the sole new launch in 1Q23.Hence,there remains 5,912 units from 21 projects in the current pipeline for the f
75、uture.The number of apartment units increased to 4,793 units after the completion of the GM Residence,Ekkamai and the refurbishment of the Pentacles.In contrast,the Garden View may face closure soon,and its owner is attempting to sell it.Other than the arrival of the restored Pentacles 2 units in su
76、bsequent quarters,there are no promised future initiatives in the works.Rising rents and prices persist In the absence of new construction,the increasing capital value was directly impacted by the rising prices of existing inventory.Some owners in Asoke and Ekkamai have reportedly boosted their aski
77、ng prices by 10%to 20%.As of 1Q23,the market capital value stood at THB 132,002 per sqm.As a result of the influx of expats and foreign residents,rents for both buy-to-let condominiums and owner-occupied apartments have grown to THB 589 and THB 382 per sqm,per month,respectively.Outlook:The Prime ma
78、rket is about to boom again A total of 1,803 units,consisting of six super premium,one premium and two high-end condominiums,is set to complete within the next 12 months.The unsold inventory could potentially rise to reach around 4,000 units.According to the developers announced business strategy,we
79、 anticipate a number of new launches in the Prime market over the next several quarters,notably in the residential component of One Bangkok.sqm per month,gross on NLATHB 589Rental Growth Y-O-Y9.5%Stage in CycleRents RisingBangkokNote:Bangkok Residential refers to Bangkoks high-end and luxury residen
80、tial market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2390955
81、120CompletionsFuture SupplyUnits2002,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202311Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“The overall sentiment in condominium sales remains soft.”Yunus KarimHead of Research,IndonesiaCo
82、ndominium demand has yet to recover Most new sales in 1Q23 were relatively newly-launched projects and projects with affordable package prices.Developers kept their focus on boosting sales while offering attractive discounts and promotions rather than on raising prices.Serviced apartments recorded a
83、 lower occupancy rate after the end-of-year holidays concluded.Expatriates,corporate occupiers and staycation offers will likely remain as the main drivers and are expected to continuously generate demand.Two towers of an upper-grade condominium project complete There was one upper-grade project con
84、sisting of two towers that completed in the quarter,namely,57 Promenade City and 57 Promenade Sky.The project was one of the most anticipated upper-grade condominiums in the center of the Thamrin area.Otherwise,there were no new projects launched in the market,reflecting still-muted investor demand.
85、There were no new serviced apartment projects that went operational in the quarter.Two projects,Ashta Residence and Ascott Menteng,are expected to enter the market within the next quarter.Both sales and rent prices remain flat Overall high-rise residential prices remained flat in 1Q23.Developers con
86、tinued to attract buyers by offering various incentives,such as semi-furnished units,vouchers and the waiver of service charges.The rental market remained stable as operators maintained rents to attract tenants.While the peak season has passed,the first quarter of the year is traditionally when tena
87、nts renew their contracts.Most landlords preferred to retain a healthy occupancy by maintaining the price for renewals.Outlook:Market to remain cautious amid headwinds Market activities will likely remain limited due to the upcoming presidential election in February 2024,and it might result in a“wai
88、t-and-see”approach from both developers and potential buyers.Hence,limited new supply and demand are likely as most of the buyers were investors looking for attractive deals and targeting capital gains or recurring income.There will be three upcoming serviced apartment completions in the Thamrin and
89、 Sudirman areas,with a total of 611 units.Projects located in these areas are expected to face increased competition.sqm per annum,net effective on NLAIDR 3,067,119Rental Growth Y-O-Y0.2%Stage in CycleRents FallingJakartaNote:Jakarta Residential refers to Jakartas luxury condominium and serviced apa
90、rtment markets.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex8590951001051104Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q
91、23CompletionsFuture Supply005006007002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202312Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Buyer interest appears to be making a comeback into the market.”Yulia NikulichevaHead of Research,MalaysiaBuyers remains uncert
92、ain amidst current economic uncertainty The Overnight Policy Rate(OPR)was maintained in 1Q23 at 2.75%,after three consecutive rate hikes.A dampening effect remains as financing tightens.Despite the dampening effects from the OPR hikes,demand remained robust as the market is supported by foreign buye
93、rs.Although domestic demand faced some pressure,the rental market trended upwards during the quarter.As potential buyers remain sensitive to economic changes,renting remains the preferred option,as homeowners await further stability.Developers wait for better market conditions;delays continue Two pr
94、ojects,The Manor and Residensi Solaris Parq,were completed in the quarter,adding 788 units to total stock.The completions of three projects comprising 1,820 units were delayed due to shortage of labour,resulting in slower construction progress.Two projects,Jewel and SWNK Houze with a total 708 units
95、,were launched during the quarter.Rental market growth continues In 1Q23,construction costs appear to have stabilised,having reached its peak in 2022.However,developers still feel the high-cost effect in positioning future launches.Improved buying activities of foreign investors has supported the cu
96、rrent selling prices but increasing supply looks to have a moderating effect on these prices.Rents continued experiencing growth while buoyed by a strong rental market in light of relatively high selling prices.Renting remains a more feasible option while waiting for economic indicators and prices t
97、o further stabilise.Outlook:Revival of government initiatives can drive foreign demand Domestic demand is expected to slow further compared to the previous year as the OPR may increase further in the near future.Developers and buyers are adjusting their plans to fit in with post-pandemic norms.The r
98、evival of foreign investment in the property market will depend largely on the success of the Premium Visa Programme(PVIP)and the newly-reintroduced Malaysia My Second Home(MM2H)programme.These initiatives aim to attract potential foreign buyers and reposition Malaysia as a desirable destination for
99、 investment and second home ownership in the region.sq ft per month,gross on NLAMYR 3.29Rental Growth Y-O-Y11.6%Stage in CycleRents RisingKuala LumpurNote:Kuala Lumpur Residential refers to Kuala Lumpurs prime residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor
100、 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2380900140CompletionsFuture Supply01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000200212022
101、2023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202313Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Leasing activities gradually heating up;sales hampered by economic headwinds.”Janlo DelosreyesHead of Research,PhilippinesUptick in RTO rates carries leasing activities Residential lease demand s
102、aw an uptick in 1Q23,as evidenced by net absorption settling at 774 units.Improving RTO rates supported the recovery with executives and foreign expatriates returning to the workplace.Additionally,newly turned over developments recorded low vacancy,contributing to improved vacancy levels.On the othe
103、r hand,activities in the sales market cooled with more returned inventories than sold units.Delayed effects of elevated interest rates have started to take a hit on investment sentiments,weighing down on market activities.New supply recorded after two quarters of no movement In 1Q23,supply expanded
104、by roughly 657 units coming from The Ellis and West Gallery Place,located in Makati City and Bonifacio Global City,respectively.Introduction of new supply is projected to slow down in 2Q23,potentially aiding in the sustained recovery of vacancy levels.Meanwhile,new launches are anticipated to remain
105、 lean as developers remain cautious of the investment market.Vacancy rate improved and settled at 7.2%,a 24.1 bps decrease q-o-q.The slight contraction in vacancy was backed by increased demand and the initial low vacancy of new developments.Rents improve as leasing market recovers Rents moved upwar
106、ds and reached PHP 824.9 per sqm per month,a 0.4%increase q-o-q,aided by the healthier leasing market.Nonetheless,the majority of unit owners still kept their rates to spur demand for long-vacated units.Capital values maintained its upward momentum and settled at PHP 280,051 per sqm,a 0.5%increase q
107、-o-q.Despite the price hike,it is noted that the expansion was tamed by the leaner demand as economic headwinds heighten.Outlook:Rents and prices may sustain gradual uptick in the near term Vacancy rate may continue to contract in the near term,aided by the anticipated improvement of RTO rates which
108、 may buoy the leasing market,as well as the projected lack of new supply in 2Q23.On the flipside,sales activities may remain challenged with investors being more cautious of big-ticket purchases as economic headwinds heighten.Rents are projected to slowly improve on the back of the expected gradual
109、recovery of leasing volumes.Price growth may still be recorded despite challenges in the sales market.However,growth may be minute relative to previous levels,due to slower demand.sqm per month,net effective on NLAPHP 825Rental Growth Y-O-Y1.2%Stage in CycleDecline SlowingManilaNote:Manila Residenti
110、al refers to the Makati City and Taguig City mid-high and luxury residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Source:JLLRental Val
111、ue IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q2380900140150CompletionsFuture SupplyUnits2002001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202314Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Cautious market sentimen
112、t prevails.”Trang LeHead of Research,VietnamSubdued demand with transactions coming from one project New sales for High-end Apartments totalled 2,785 units.While this figure was up remarkably q-o-q and y-o-y,nearly 90%of sales came from The Beverly,Vinhomes Grand Park.The projects high sales are due
113、 to its soft launch activities since 4Q21 and the fact that it officially launched in the quarter.Apart from this exception,market demand was generally sluggish due to weak market sentiment.Villa/Townhouse transactions recorded an immense drop of 91.7%q-o-q(down 98.3%y-o-y),with just 19 units sold,a
114、s most buyers and investors applied a“wait-and-see”approach amid the legal uncertainty and market slowdown.All transactions came from later phases of existing projects,namely The Global City,The Classia and Vinhomes Grand Park.Limited new supply owing to legal issues and economic headwinds Economic
115、headwinds and lingering legal issues still challenge soft-launch projects as they proceed to the signing of SPA contracts.The market welcomed 2,989 units in the High-end Apartment*segment during 1Q23,coming solely from the subsequent phase of Vinhomes Grand Park township.This is the only project tha
116、t received an official sale permit from the authorities in the quarter.Following the previous trend,the Villa/Townhouse market experienced no introductions of first-time projects in 1Q23.Newly-launched units dropped significantly by 67.9%q-o-q(down 93.6%y-o-y),with around 60 units coming from the ex
117、isting high-priced projects of Khang Dien,Masterise and Vinhomes.Selling prices adjust slightly amid the weak market sentiment Growth in net effective rent of High-end Apartments accelerated for the fifth straight quarter,recording+2.0%q-o-q and+9.4%y-o-y at USD 9.5 per sqm,per month.This was driven
118、 by strong leasing demand,as renting presented as a more feasible option than waiting for economic indicators and prices to further stabilise.High-end Apartment capital values registered steady growth with an increase of 0.4%q-o-q,reaching USD 3,299 per sqm.However,the expansion is weaker compared t
119、o previous quarters due to slower market activity and prolonged legal issues,which tempered price growth.For the Secondary market,the price continued to experience a slight decline of 0.4%q-o-q amid softening demand.Outlook:Residential market to enter a quiet period Supply is constrained by weak sen
120、timent amid economic uncertainty and legal issues.High-end Apartment and Villa/Townhouse markets are expected to welcome around 6,000 units and 1,000 units,respectively,in 2023.Demand is likely to be modest in 1H23,before picking up in 2H23 with more projects set to enter the market and lingering le
121、gal and macroeconomic issues expected to improve by year-end.Future completion of higher-priced projects will raise capital value growth in both segments in 2023,in the context of limited new supply and cautious demand.The capital value is expected to reach approximately USD 3,458(+5.2%y-o-y)and USD
122、 3,704 per sqm(+6.0%y-o-y)for High-end Apartments and Villas/Townhouses*,*respectively,by the end of 2023.sqm per month,net effective on NLAUSD 9.48Rental Growth Y-O-Y9.4%Stage in CycleRents RisingHo Chi Minh CityNote:Ho Chi Minh City Residential refers to Ho Chi Minh Citys high-end apartment market
123、.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the high-end apartment market.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Future supply is for the remainder of 2023.Physical Indicators are for the high-end apa
124、rtment market.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q237080900140150160CompletionsFuture Supply01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002002120222023Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202315Physical Indicators
125、Financial Indices“Sales and launches in Delhi NCR rise to a 15-year high.”Dr Samantak DasExecutive Director and Head of Research&REIS,India&Sri LankaAround 4,000 high-end apartments sold in Delhi NCR Gurgaon continues to remain the top-performing submarket,contributing 82%to the overall high-end sal
126、es.DLF was able to sell all of the 1,137 units in its newly-launched project,The Arbour,within three days of launch,highlighting the sustained demand for such luxury projects.Golf Course Extension Road and Dwarka Expressway were the best performing corridors here.Noida contributed 12%of the high-end
127、 sales,followed by Delhi,which contributed the rest.A majority of the units sold in the high-end segment in Noida were in the Noida-Greater Noida Expressway corridor.Launches up 52%q-o-q In 1Q23,all of the high-end launches were recorded in Gurgaon.Golf Course Extension Road corridor led in terms of
128、 new launches,contributing over 40%.National-level developers like DLF,Birla Estates and Adani Realty have launched projects in this corridor.The Dwarka Expressway corridor was next with 37%of the new launches,with established developers like M3M and Tata Realty launching projects here.Local develop
129、ers like Whiteland Corporation and Central Park also launched a project each in the NH-8 and Sohna corridors,respectively.Prices and rents up marginally across most submarkets Prices in the high-end segment went up by 2.1%q-o-q and 6.8%y-o-y.Gurgaon saw the highest price increase on a quarterly basi
130、s,with the sustained demand for high-end housing in the region being a big factor.Along with this,rents also increased marginally in Gurgaon.Capital values and rents in Noida and Delhi also increased marginally.Despite the rising prices,sales have continued to remain robust with the buyer profile se
131、emingly unaffected by the repo rate hikes.Outlook:Robust demand to be expected and backed by strong supply A majority of the high-end launches are expected to take place in Noida and Gurgaon.High-end launches in Noida have slowed down in recent years,but with established developers like M3M,Max Esta
132、tes and L&T Realty acquiring land and announcing plans to launch projects in the Noida-Greater Noida submarket,premium housing supply is expected to get a boost in Noida.Capital values and rents are expected to go up further,driven by robust demand and infrastructure developments.Along with this,pol
133、icy changes will also impact pricing,such as circle rates in Gurgaon which are likely to be raised in the next quarter.Demand is also likely to remain robust due to aspirational lifestyles and rising disposable incomes.sq ft per month,gross on GFAINR 25.4Rental Growth Y-O-Y1.6%Stage in CycleN/ADelhi
134、Note:Delhi Residential refers to Gurgaons prime residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for Gurgaons prime market.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Physical Indicators are for G
135、urgaons prime market.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value Index909551204Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q23IndexCompletionsUnits2002,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202316Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Sales in the
136、 high-end segment hit an all-time peak.”Dr Samantak DasExecutive Director and Head of Research&REIS,India&Sri LankaMomentum continues to soar in the high-end category The demand for high-end residential units continued to rise in 1Q23 in anticipation of the proposed stamp duty hike from 1 April 2023
137、.Big-ticket deals have seen an uptick as industrialists,HNIs and Bollywood celebrities bought luxury apartments in the prime localities of Mumbai.Select projects in South Mumbai,namely Lodha Malabar and Oberoi 360 West,recorded notable deals.Eastern Suburbs I recorded the highest sales in 1Q23,accou
138、nting for 22.4%,followed by Thane and Navi Mumbai.The South Mumbai submarket recorded sales growth of 16.3%q-o-q.Projects that recorded healthy sales in this submarket include Lodha Malabar and Oberoi 360 West with prominent high-ticket transactions.New launches lower by 7.3%q-o-q A total of 4,974 u
139、nits were launched in the high-end segment in 1Q23,a marginal fall of 7.3%q-o-q,though higher by nearly fourfold y-o-y.New launches were mostly driven by Thane,Western Suburbs I and II during the quarter.New launches were,however,down q-o-q in key corridors like South Central Mumbai,Western Suburbs
140、I and Eastern Suburbs I.Capital values witness a marginal rise in 1Q23 Capital values recorded a slight q-o-q rise of 0.5%as the demand for high-end residential units remained growth-oriented.Increased input material costs was also a key factor for the rising capital values in the city.Rents increas
141、ed slightly in 1Q23,as most companies encouraged employees to work from the office,driving the surge in demand for rental housing.Also,the increased redevelopment activity in the city contributed to the rise in rents as such home owners were actively adding to the rental housing demand.Outlook:The h
142、igh-end residential market is likely to sustain its pace The high-end residential market is likely to continue its momentum going forward,on the back of the improved market sentiment and increasing demand for bigger homes.The cost of key raw materials,such as steel,iron and cement,will be key influe
143、ncing factors for the rise in capital values,as commodity prices have been on the upswing,though some cooling off is expected.Better demand levels should continue to support price growth in the high-end segment.sq ft per month,gross on GFAINR 97.6Rental Growth Y-O-Y0.4%Stage in CycleN/AMumbaiNote:Mu
144、mbai Residential refers to Mumbais prime residential market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for the South.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Physical Indicators are for the overall market.S
145、ource:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q239095100105110CompletionsUnits2002,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202317Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“New launches and sales up significantly
146、q-o-q.”Dr Samantak DasExecutive Director and Head of Research&REIS,India&Sri LankaDemand for luxury homes on the rise The demand for luxury homes has risen by 43%q-o-q.While the city remains an end-user-driven market with a high proportion of salaried-class personnel in the service industry,it is wi
147、tnessing increasing demand for homes in the price category of over INR 15 million,primarily on account of the rising number of wealthy people and aspirational lifestyles.During the quarter,there was an increase in demand for larger homes with excellent amenities and support infrastructure.This is be
148、cause the citys mid-and senior-level executives as well as the citys wealthy class and NRIs are interested in buying or investing in such luxury properties.New launches show a healthy growth q-o-q High-end residential launches increased compared to the previous quarter and constituted a healthy 15.5
149、%of the total quarterly launches.Most of the new launches were in the Secondary,Whitefield and Bellary Road submarkets.Several major launches during the quarter were by reputable developers like Godrej Athena,Prestige Elm Park,Vista By Vista Spaces Okas and DivyaSree 77 Life.Overall rents and capita
150、l values on an upward trajectory The overall rents increased by 3.7%q-o-q,largely driven by high demand for apartments from top corporates wanting to be closer to tech and major city clusters.Also,a lack of new completions has hampered availability while demand has returned,causing rents to spike.Ca
151、pital values rose across all submarkets as demand remained healthy for residential offerings,giving developers the confidence to hike prices and even bring in new developments at prices higher than the prevailing market average.Outlook:High-end residential demand expected to be sustained We expect t
152、hat demand for luxury housing is likely to be sustained.However,some headwinds may be visible,with buyers from the tech industry likely to go slow and the long-term capital gains cap of INR 100 million becoming operational with the 31 March financial year-end,the announcement of which had also trigg
153、ered a spate of high-value transactions in the residential segment.Developers are focusing on areas near the citys information technology corridors,such as Sarjapur and Whitefield,which are now emerging as new corridors for high-end housing.North Bengaluru is also expected to see increased residenti
154、al activity due to its proximity to the airport and excellent connectivity,along with upcoming infrastructure development.sq ft per month,gross on GFAINR 42.2Rental Growth Y-O-Y4.2%Stage in CycleN/ABengaluruNote:Bengaluru Residential refers to Bengalurus prime residential market.Dotted lines indicat
155、e near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for Prime City.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Physical Indicators are for the overall market.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexIndex909551204Q184Q194
156、Q204Q214Q224Q23CompletionsUnits2002,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202318Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“A fourfold increase in high-end residential launches.”Dr Samantak DasExecutive Director and Head of Research&REIS,Indi
157、a&Sri LankaHigh-end sales up by 2%q-o-q The demand in the high-end apartment market is led by the citys traditional need for bigger and more spacious homes and plotted developments.Developers are aligning their launch strategies based on actual home-buyer preferences.The impetus in consumer behaviou
158、r for amenity-rich housing since the pandemic continues to remain healthy.Sales continue to outstrip new launches,recording 2%growth q-o-q.Prominent developers have started to launch high-end projects in Western and Northern submarkets,owing to improving connectivity and infrastructure projects like
159、 Chennai Metro Rail Phase 2.New launches moving away from CBD Supply in the citys core areas is limited due to limited land availability;hence,new high-end launches are shifting to adjacent submarkets.The number of launches rose by 345%q-o-q owing to the rising demand and affordability.The depleting
160、 inventory along with limited land availability in the central areas are pushing new launches to adjacent submarkets.Developers continued to offer buyers attractive gifts and incentives to push them towards making home purchases.Capital values and rents stay steady The buoyant housing demand,coupled
161、 with limited stock,is likely to push capital values up in the upcoming quarters.Rents are expected to continue the upward trend.However,they are expected to remain range-bound.The rising construction costs and limited stock are likely to push capital values up in the near term by 2%-5%.Outlook:Proj
162、ect launches to shift towards Western Suburbs Traditionally,the citys population go for bigger homes and plotted developments.The improving infrastructure,buoyant home ownership sentiment,and affordability among the young population are likely to stir up the high-end housing demand in the city.The n
163、ew high-end launches are shifting towards the Northern and Western suburbs due to a dearth in stock in the citys core areas,as well as improving connectivity.sq ft per month,gross on GFAINR 30.4Rental Growth Y-O-Y0.3%Stage in CycleN/AChennaiNote:Chennai Residential refers to Chennais prime residenti
164、al market.Dotted lines indicate near-term outlookIndex base:4Q18=100Financial Indicators are for Prime City.Source:JLLFor 2018 to 2022,completions are year-end annual.For 2023,completions are as at 1Q23.Physical Indicators are for the overall market.Source:JLLRental Value IndexCapital Value IndexInd
165、ex4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q224Q239095100105110CompletionsUnits2002004006008001,0001,2001,400|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202319Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Despite Sydney apartment prices returning to growth,headwinds remain in the short term.”Leigh War
166、nerSenior Director-Residential Research,AustraliaDemand conditions remain mixed Higher interest rates and cost of living pressures remain headwinds for housing demand generally,and are likely to remain so in the short term.However,apartment demand has largely stabilised in Sydney,supported by their
167、affordability relative to detached housing.Demand for investor product remains soft,as does owner-occupier demand in some more interest-rate sensitive locations like Western Sydney.Nevertheless,demand for quality boutique apartment projects in premium inner Sydney locations remains more active,drive
168、n by demand from downsizers that are less perturbed by rising interest rates.Apartment supply remains muted Apartment completions have fallen substantially across Sydney the past two years and current new supply levels are low.Despite optimism about market outlook,few major projects are progressing
169、to construction because of a difficult development environment.Rising construction and finance costs are stretching project feasibility.Rental vacancy has fallen significantly over the past year and has reached a low of 1.3%.Rental displacement and challenges in securing rentals have quickly resurfa
170、ced over much of Sydney.Rents surge and prices return to growth Reflecting the now tight rental market,apartment asking rents have grown very strongly over the past year and are now around 13%above pre-COVID-19 levels,after regaining the ground lost initially in the pandemic.Existing apartment price
171、s in Sydney have now grown over the three months to April 2023,despite still being 7.3%lower over the past year.While detached housing may face more downward pressure yet,it is more likely apartment prices have entered the next cycle.Outlook:Apartments to bounce back first While the downturn may not
172、 quite yet be over for detached housing,the affordability of apartments and strong migration and foreign student demand are likely to support the apartment market and push into the next cycle.Continued low levels of new supply will also support Sydney apartment prices moving forward,but this also me
173、ans that there is little relief for the already tight rental market.We expect to see continued strong rental growth over the near term.per week,2 bedrooms AUD 600Rental Growth Y-O-Y20.0%Stage in CycleRents RisingSydneyNote:Sydney Residential refers to Inner Sydney apartments.Price and yield data sou
174、rced from CoreLogic.Rental and vacancy data sourced from the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales.Source:CoreLogic as at 4Q22Projects with 50 units or more.Source:JLL as at 1Q23Price growth(y-o-y)4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q22y-o-y(%)-8-6-4-202468CompletionsUnder ConstructionCurrently MarketingPlans Appro
175、vedPlans Submitted200222023202401,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Units|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202320Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“Big impact on Melbournes rental market from recent return of migrants and foreign students.”Leigh WarnerSenior Direc
176、tor-Residential Research,AustraliaDemand stabilises While apartment demand in Melbourne has fallen the past year and has been affected by interest rate headwinds,it has already stabilised now in 2023 at a relatively robust level.New apartment demand remains largely focused on smaller boutique develo
177、pments more aimed at owner-occupiers.Investor demand remains muted,although the strong rental market and lift in rental yields is starting to attract a little more interest from investors.Melbourne supply remains moderate Despite Melbourne having much more built-to-rent(BTR)supply than other markets
178、 in the pipeline,the overall level of supply across all product types fell sharply in 2022 and will likely remain moderate for at least several more years.Project cost pressures continue to inhibit large-scale build to sell projects,from progressing to construction stages.A strong rebound in migrati
179、on and foreign student numbers has gained momentum in 2023 and had an enormous impact on rental vacancy,which has fallen to 1.1%in March 2023,its lowest level in decades.Rental rebound gains momentum Melbournes rental market was hardest hit by closed borders,but rapid tightening in the market over t
180、he past year has seen the rental growth gain momentum.Currently,rents are around 6%above pre-pandemic levels.Apartment prices have also returned to moderate growth in the months of March and April 2023,but are still almost 6%lower over the past year.Outlook:Apartments edge towards recovery It has be
181、en a tough period for Melbourne apartments,but residual stock from the last cycle has been largely depleted and demand prospects have improved markedly with the rebound in migration and foreign student numbers.With new supply completions also remaining moderate over at least the next few years,suppl
182、y is likely to fall well short of underlying demand.The supply/demand balance and the relative affordability of apartments are likely to support apartment price growth over the medium term,while there will also be little relief for the tight rental market for some time yet.per week,2 bedrooms AUD 44
183、0Rental Growth Y-O-Y10.0%Stage in CycleRents RisingMelbourneNote:Melbourne Residential refers to Inner Melbourne apartments.Inner Melbourne data:Supply from JLL,rents from Department of Human Services Victoria,and vacancy from REIV.Greater Melbourne data:Price,sales volume and yields from CoreLogic.
184、Source:CoreLogic as at 4Q22Projects with 50 units or more.Source:JLL as at 1Q23Price growth(y-o-y)y-o-y(%)4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q22-6-4-20246810CompletionsUnder ConstructionCurrently MarketingPlans ApprovedPlans Submitted200222023202401,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Units|Residential m
185、arkets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202321Physical IndicatorsFinancial Indices“The biggest problem in progressing apartment projects in Brisbane has become securing a builder.”Leigh WarnerSenior Director-Residential Research,AustraliaOwner-occupiers continue to dominate demand Brisbanes new apart
186、ment demand remains moderate,but is improving,spurred by strong local population growth and by a lack of existing housing product available.Demand continues to be focused toward owner-occupiers,and particularly downsizers,who are generally looking for smaller,quality boutique developments.While inve
187、stor demand remains very muted,strong local rental market conditions and relatively high gross investment yields are starting to generate more interest from investors that can see the underlying supply shortage across the market.Supply shortages grow Brisbane apartment supply has fallen to very low
188、levels over the past few years.While expected to rise in 2023,the level of supply is currently,and will likely remain,moderate for at least several more years.On top of project cost pressures,securing a building contractor has become the biggest challenge,as Brisbanes thin builder pool is more focus
189、ed on 2032 Olympic infrastructure projects.Rental vacancy in Brisbane has been low for an extended period now and was 0.9%in March 2023.Vacancy is now low across all product types and most parts of Brisbane,and market displacement levels are high.Rents surge on the back of low vacancy Brisbane askin
190、g rents have surged for some time now and very strong growth has continued into 2023.Rents across Greater Brisbane did not really fall in the early stages of COVID-19 like in Sydney and Melbourne,and as such,rents for 2-bed apartments are around a third higher than they were in March 2020 at the ons
191、et of the pandemic.Brisbane apartment prices returned to growth in March and April 2023 after six months of decline.Prices are still around 1.5%higher over the year to April,and there appears little further downside now,given the affordability of apartments relative to detached houses and the market
192、 supply/demand balance.Outlook:Apartments to move further into under-supply While apartment demand remains somewhat muted,this is not expected to last long given the underlying demand growth from strong regional population growth,the relative affordability of apartments,plus the likely return of inv
193、estors to capitalise on the strong rental market conditions.With supply levels likely to remain moderate for some time,Brisbane is expected to move further into under-supply,and this along with higher construction costs are likely to support robust medium-term apartment price growth.Stresses in the
194、rental market are also only likely to worsen.per week,2 bedrooms AUD 480Rental Growth Y-O-Y14.3%Stage in CycleGrowth SlowingBrisbaneNote:Brisbane Residential refers to Inner Brisbane apartments.Pricing data sourced from CoreLogic.Vacancy data sourced from REIQ.Rental data sourced from The Queensland
195、 Rental Tenancy Authority.Source:CoreLogic as at 4Q22Projects with 50 units or more.Source:JLL as at 1Q23Price growth(y-o-y)y-o-y(%)4Q184Q194Q204Q214Q22-6-8-4-20246810CompletionsUnder ConstructionCurrently MarketingPlans ApprovedPlans Submitted2002220232024Units05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0
196、003,500|Residential markets|JLL Asia Pacific Residential Q1 202322Note:All physical indicators charts are based on the local measurement standard-GFA or NLA.Office rental figures at the top of each market page refer to the main submarket in each city.JLL Research-Asia PacificAsia PacificRoddy Allan
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