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1、TABLE OF CONTENTS1ASSOCIATION OF OIL,GAS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY COMPANIES OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEANTABLE OF CONTENTS2This paper was prepared by the following three organizations:International Gas Union,ARPEL,and OLADE,with the support and cooperation of many experts and leaders.Acknowledgment
2、sAuthors:Marta Gonzlez Senior Advisor,Public Affairs Directorate,International Gas Union(Project Leader)Pablo Ferragut Managing Director,ARPELGuillermo Koutoudjian Acting Director of Integration,Access,and Energy Security,OLADELi Yalan,President,International Gas Union and the Presidency teamAndrea
3、Stegher,Vice President,International Gas UnionMilton Catelin,Secretary General,International Gas UnionLesley Coldham,Public Affairs Director,International Gas UnionCarlos Garibaldi,Executive Secretary,ARPELMiguel Moyano,Senior Managing Director,ARPELMara Eugenia Guzmn,Communications Manager,ARPELJan
4、et Csar,Regional Coordinator,ARPELAlfonso Blanco former Executive Secretary,OLADEAndrs Rebolledo,Executive Secretary,OLADEGuido Maiulini,Chief of Staff,OLADEFabio Garca,Associate Specialist OLADEThe three organizations coordinated the preparation of this paper with special acknowledgments to:Special
5、 collaborators and contributors:ABEGAS(Associao Brasileira das Empresas Distribuidoras de Gs Canalizado)Ieada Gomes Yell,Honorary Member(Senior Visiting Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and Senior Adviser FGV Energia,Brazil)ABIOGAS(Associao Brasileira do Biogs)Letcia Lorentz,Technical Coor
6、dinator.Tamar Roitman,Executive ManagerAGN(Asociacin Gas Natural Chile)Carlos Corts Simn,Executive Chairman(Regional Coordinator IGU)ATGAS(Associacao de Empresas de Transporte de Gs)Rogrio Manso,Chief Executive OfficerAVPG(Asociacin Venezolana de Procesadores de Gas)Tito Bonnadonna,Executive Directo
7、rCBHE(Cmara Boliviana de Hidrocarburos y Energa)Stevo Ostoic,Board MemberIAPG(Instituto Argentino del Petrleo y Gas)Ernesto Lpez Anadn,President/Eduardo Abriata,Technical Manager Oil&GasIBP(Instituto Brasileiro de Petrleo e Gs)Sylvie dApote,Executive Director-Natural Gas/Felipe Botelho,SpecialistNat
8、urgas(Asociacin Colombiana de Gas Natural)Luz Stella Murgas,President.Camilo Morales,Secretary GeneralColumbia Universitys Center on Global Energy Policy Diego Rivera Rivota,Research Associate.Leonardo Beltran Rodriguez,Distinguished Visiting Fellow(Executive Fellow The School of Public Policy,non-r
9、esident Fellow Institute of the Americas,Board Member SEforALL,Former Deputy Secretary of Energy Mexico)energiE Juan Andrs Vergara,Markets Director.Daniel Salazar,Associate Director.Global CCS Institute-Ruth Ivory-Moore,Policy and Advocacy Manager,AmericasRystadEnergy Vitor Sanchez,Senior Client Suc
10、cess Manager.Ernesto Diaz,Senior VicePresident Latin AmericaWood Mackenzie Vinicius Diniz Moraes,Research Associate.Melissa Tarver,Account Director-Energy Strategics.Adrian Lara,Principal Research Analyst.Julie Wilson,Director Energy Research.Many senior government officials and international expert
11、s and more than 60 organizations,among them NOCs of Latin America and the Caribbean,IOCs,energy companies,consultancy companies,think tanks,financial institutions,and global organizations,provided input during the First Stakeholder Dialogue in Rio de Janeiro,and reviewed the preliminary drafts of th
12、e report on 23 February and 23 March.Their comments,suggestions,and contributions were of great value.Editor:Mark BlacklockDesigner:Fernanda AretaTABLE OF CONTENTS3Disclaimer:The denominations used in the maps and the way in which the data they contain are presented do not imply,on the part of IGU,A
13、RPEL,and OLADE,any value judgment regarding the legal status and the political-administrative division of the countries,territories,cities,or areas,or of their authorities,nor regarding the delimitations of their frontiers or limits.The information contained in this paper is based on global energy d
14、atabases and tools,public information,industry reports,and other general research and knowledge held by the organizations.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IGU,OLADE,and ARPEL.The paper is subject to revisions.IGU,OLADE,and ARPEL disclaim any
15、 responsibility or liability for content error.They are not responsible for any actions taken by the“Recipient”or any third-party based on information contained in this paper.Nothing contained in this paper constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or investment advice.This paper does not provi
16、de a comprehensive analysis of the financial position or prospects of any company or entity,and nothing in it should be taken as a comment regarding the value of the securities of any entity.Copyright IGU,ARPEL,and OLADE 2023 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for edu
17、cational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders,as long as acknowledgment of the source is made.No use of this paper may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from IGU,ARPEL,and OLADE.TABLE OF CONTE
18、NTS4Acknowledgement .2Disclaimer.3Foreword.5Executive Summary.7Section 1 Introduction and Rationale Introduction.15 Rationale.18Section 2 Natural Gas Scenarios .19Section 3 Latin America and the Caribbean Overview Socio-Economic Overview.28 Energy and GHG Emissions Overview.37Section 4 Key Drivers f
19、or Natural Gas Development and Decarbonization Gas Resources Development for Economic Prosperity.48Gas-to-Power.55Hard-to-Abate Sectors.61Enabling low-carbon solutions (CCUS,Hydrogen,Fertilizers,Biogas,and Biomethane).67Other Key Strategic Issues(Energy Security,Regional Integration and ESG Performa
20、nce).81Section 5 Countries InsightsArgentina.95 Bolivia.99 Brazil.104 Central America and The Caribbean.112 Chile.116 Colombia.122 Ecuador.126 Guyana and Suriname.130 Mexico.133 Peru.137 Trinidad&Tobago.142 Venezuela.146Section 6 Final Remarks .150Annexes.153 Glossary.154Abbreviations.157Table of co
21、ntentsTABLE OF CONTENTS5ForewordThe oil and gas industry of Latin America and the Caribbean shares the communal sense of urgency for curbing the projected effects of global climate change,by transitioning our regional primary matrix to being even further weighted by renewable and low-emission energy
22、 sources.ARPEL has undertaken as a mission to drive the necessary transformation of the sector in this region and has incorporated renewable energy into its scope.Being an eclectic region,we also understand that transitions need to be just and bespoke to national and even local energy structure,deve
23、lopment,and poverty situations.These transition paths are naturally hindered by complexities and uncertainties,such as assuring energy security and sovereignty in a scenario of growing populations and economies,diverse levels of vulnerability to climate change,and differing hierarchies of national a
24、nd social priorities.As it names implies,transition doesnt mean abrupt replacement.It entails having the necessary realism and pragmatism to seek synergies and“quick wins”towards the decarbonization goals.Natural gas is thus an ideal transition fuel to fill the gap between energy demand and renewabl
25、e and low emissions supply:by gradually displacing coal and heavier petroleum-derived fuels;by extrapolating its competencies and infrastructure to CCUS,biomethane and hydrogen;and by providing a synergistic uninterruptible,Carlos Garibaldi Executive Secretary ARPELtechnologically available and deli
26、verable,reliable,and economically accessible basis to solar and wind,for example.Where there is no rain,sunshine or wind,our natural gas will still be there.This document provides an overview of the role of natural gas,complemented by lower carbon/green gases,in the energy transition in the specific
27、 context of Latin America and the Caribbean.It aims to contribute to the international energy dialogue,to help in the understanding of the critical benefits that gases can bring to the energy transition,and to provide evidence and insights to inform energy stakeholders about the unique opportunities
28、 and challenges of this important region.The global energy and food shortages of the past year have shown that the market will respond quickly to price signals for example by rapidly increasing LNG exports to Western Europe by 66%in 2022 but those high prices have been devastating to consumers at al
29、l levels.Factories have closed,businesses have cut back activity,individuals and families have had to resort to food banks in unprecedented numbers.One lesson from last year has been that policymakers need to pay closer attention to balancing the clear need for climate action with the imperatives of
30、 energy security and energy access.Renewables certainly need more investment,but it is concerning that while governments are not making those investments at the rate and scale required,they are also neglecting indigenous supplies of natural gas that could fuel poverty alleviation,and business and co
31、mmunity development.With the worlds population estimated to expand by more than 2 billion people by 2050 energy demand is in danger of growing faster than low-carbon energy deployment,resulting in more coal consumption and far higher greenhouse emissions of both carbon dioxide and methane.The challe
32、nge for countries in this region is much greater than for those in the developed world.Firstly,in terms of financing costs and secondly,because the distribution of subsidies to technologies that are not ready bankable,competes with other essential priorities,such as health,education and pensions.Mil
33、ton Catelin Secretary GeneralIGUEnergy policy for the region therefore needs to become more pragmatic than it has been,with greater focus on long term security of supply balanced against the urgency of a just energy transition that recognizes intra-regional diversity.Natural gas,and other low carbon
34、 gases are invaluable tools for the region to reach a net zero future,while avoiding volatility and economic hardship and investment in new supply must not only continue,but grow.TABLE OF CONTENTS6IGUIGU was founded in 1931 and is a worldwide non-profit organization representing more than 150 gas an
35、d related service industry members worldwide on all continents.The members of IGU are national associations and corporations within the gas industry and related services worldwide,covering over 90%of the global gas market and working in every segment of the gas value chain,from the supply of natural
36、 and decarbonized gas,renewable gas,and hydrogen,through their transmission and distribution,and all the way to the point of use.IGU holds the status of UNFCCC non-governmental organization observer at the UN Climate Change Conferences(Conference of the Parties)and has participated in every conferen
37、ce from COP1 to COP27.ARPEL ARPEL,is a non-profit association gathering oil,gas,and renewable energy sector companies and institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean.Founded in 1965 as a vehicle of cooperation and reciprocal assistance among sector companies,its main purpose is to actively contr
38、ibute to industry integration and competitive growth,and to sustainable energy development in the region.Its membership currently represents a high percentage of the upstream and downstream activities in Latin America and the Caribbean and includes national and international operating companies,prov
39、iders of technology,goods and services for the value chain,and national and international sector institutions.Since 1976,ARPEL has held Special Consultative Status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council(ECOSOC).In 2006,the association declared its adherence to the UN Global Compact prin
40、ciples.OLADE OLADE,the intergovernmental body of cooperation,coordination and technical advisory of the energy public sector of Latin America and the Caribbean was established in 1973 by the signing of the Lima Agreement,ratified by 27 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean,with the fundamenta
41、l objective of promoting the integration,conservation,rational use,commercialization,and defense of the regions energy resources.This work seeks to provide an outline of the role of natural gas and other low carbon gases in the different transitions that are taking place in Latin America and the Car
42、ibbean.Transitions,as a plural,is a key concept to acknowledge the diversity of our regional context.Natural gas is,for some countries in our region,the privileged way towards a lower carbon matrix.Energy transitions towards cleaner energy systems have natural gas as a key resource in order to achie
43、ve the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions and the improvement of the air quality of our cities without penalizing consumption,production and employment in economies hardly hit by the pandemic and the global energy crisis.The complementation that existing natural gas infrastructure provides to the
44、 intermittence of renewable energy sources is paramount to the long term energy security of Latin America and the Caribbean.Advancing regional integration in natural gas with new infrastructure will only strengthen the reliability and dependability of our energy systems.Our region still struggles wi
45、th poverty,low growth and investment and lack of energy access.Natural gas can provide a low-cost energy source that enhances competitiveness and brings about higher rates of economic growth while extending the reach of clean fuels for cooking and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and particula
46、te material.Andrs Rebolledo Executive Secretary OLADETABLE OF CONTENTS7TABLE OF CONTENTS8GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe world needs a massive transformation,and natural gas is essential for itCollaboration,pragmatism,and putting people first are paramou
47、nt to accelerating the transitionNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryThe world needs to transition to low-carbon economies to reduce global warming while continuing to promote sustainable socio-economic development for a growi
48、ng global population.Achieving this massive goal requires a radical transformation in how energy is supplied and used worldwide,as 73%of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions are generated by energy use,particularly by burning fossil fuels,representing roughly 80%of the worlds primary energy supply.Tr
49、ansforming the energy sector at the needed scale and pace is a herculean task,to which all the players in the energy landscape must contribute,while recognizing that the transition will require different pathways and options for different conditions,thus being indeed“transitions”rather than a unique
50、 linear sequence.Additionally,widespread poverty and population growth urge us to look at energy security,food security,and affordability 1.Transition success is based on both decarbonization and socio-economic development;2.The transition is a complex process that needs profound social,economic,and
51、 technological country-specific transformations;as cornerstones of the current debate,where socio-economic development is an essential aspect in developing and low-income countries;all of them are being negatively affected by the ongoing crisis.This white paper provides a strategic approach to the r
52、ole of and critical drivers for the development of natural gas today(complemented by lower-carbon/green gases in the medium term)in the energy transition in the specific context of Latin America and the Caribbean.It aims to contribute to the international energy dialogue,to help in the understanding
53、 of the critical benefits that natural gas could bring to the energy transition,and to provide evidence and insights to inform energy stakeholders about the regional situation in particular.3.There is no single transition pathway,and this process must be just(linked to starting point circumstance)an
54、d people-centered to be acceptable and successful;4.Defining balanced,timely,effective,and consistent transition pathways needs collaboration between all stakeholders and high levels of pragmatism.The four main pillars this white paper is focusing on are the following:TABLE OF CONTENTS9GAS WHITE PAP
55、ER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryThe future of the energy mix is deeply uncertainThe future of energy is thus highly uncertain.While the driving force of climate
56、change and the consequent need to transition to a low-carbon energy system are evident,the nature of the mix in the decades to come looks much more indeterminate,mainly because it is not possible to accurately predict how and when alternative technologies will mature,reach the commercial stage,and a
57、chieve wide-ranging deployment.This paper considers the scenarios prepared by the most reputable international organizations to shed some light on the future of natural gas.Some of the key messages extracted from this global scale analysis are the following:Energy demand will most likely increase,dr
58、iven by population growth compounded by economic development,even considering improvements in energy efficiency;Regarding the role of different sources in the future energy mix,there is uncertainty about how to fill the gap between supply and demand,and there is no alignment on the share that natura
59、l gas will represent.However,up to now,all the scenarios still contemplate the participation of coal and other fuels with a worse carbon footprint than natural gas,which drives us to envision other alternative scenarios.Additionally,there is the need to evaluate what-if scenarios,mainly in view of n
60、ew constraints of minerals and metals in terms of both enhanced suitable supply and diversification;Some almost certain things can be stated;firstly,there will be advantages for the development of low-carbon gases such as biomethane,hydrogen(blue,green,and turquoise),and natural gas with carbon capt
61、ure,utilization,and storage(CCUS)as part of all scenarios,with a growing contribution;The role of fertilizers will be heightened in the coming years by population growth and in particular,by nitrogen fertilizers using hydrogen as feedstock.On the other hand,the possible roles of hydrogen as a carrie
62、r and its use in biofuels and synthetic fuels open a new competition front for the fertilizer industry.In brief,to keep food prices affordable,all low-carbon hydrogen technologies should be considered;Furthermore,the natural gas industry should strive to“green”natural gas,developing new alternatives
63、 and reducing the carbon footprint of current operations,especially by reducing methane emissions,which is a win-win both from the climate and the economic perspectives;Besides,natural gas demand will most likely grow in the developing world,particularly in Asia.In contrast,the developed world is ex
64、pected to decelerate fossil fuel demand,driven by more stringent climate policies;LNG trade and infrastructure are expected to grow further,adding flexibility and security to the energy supply while opening opportunities for developing other markets,such as bunkering.Latin American and Caribbean cou
65、ntries could take advantage of the current window of opportunity to foster the creation of a regional market by promoting the appropriate conditions for investment in exploration and production(E&P)and gas infrastructures to support market needs.In countries enjoying natural gas resources in the Lat
66、in America and Caribbean region,the promotion of best practices for additional E&P investments could also be a strong lever to support public finance equilibrium.TABLE OF CONTENTS10GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural
67、Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryThe transition must be accelerated,but as alternative options are not yet fully scalable,there are considerable risks of unintended consequencesAs stated above,energy demand is expected to grow in t
68、he coming decades,opening a gap between energy supply and demand that must be filled with different energy sources.How this gap will be bridged is far from being neutral.While renewable energies have been rapidly gaining market share in the global energy supply,mainly in the power sector,these alter
69、native low-carbon solutions are not yet mature enough to fill the expected gap between supply and demand for many very well-known reasons,such as technology readiness,infrastructure development,or potential supply chain bottlenecks.While investment should be fostered to overcome these challenges,it
70、should be acknowledged that they will not be solved at the needed pace,so part of the gap will need to be covered with natural gas as a substitute for coal and increasingly lower-carbon gases.Accepting this fact would lead to more balanced,pragmatic,realistic,and thus effective transition pathways,a
71、s putting too much pressure on unrealistic pathways could lead to bottlenecks that may finally favor more carbon-intensive alternatives,thus delaying the transition.Besides,the challenge for developing and low-income countries is much greater than for developed ones,firstly in terms of financing cos
72、ts and secondly,because the distribution of subsidies to technologies that are not ready bankable competes with other essential priorities,such as health,education,and pensions.Decarbonization in Latin America and the Caribbean is not only a matter of energyThe region contributes approximately 8%of
73、the worlds total GHG emissions annually;however,less than half of these emissions are derived from energy use.Energy use accounts for only 43%of Latin American and Caribbean GHG emissions,a distinctive emissions profile(vis-vis 73%globally).The limited energy contribution is driven by electricity wi
74、th low-carbon intensity,typically with a much larger share of hydropower and natural gas,than of coal.Other sectors such as agriculture,a very important economic activity in many countries,and land use changes,mainly because of the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest,have a greater impact than en
75、ergy use,accounting for 45%of total GHG emissions.This fact greatly impacts energy policy,climate action,and decarbonization priorities.Latin American and Caribbean countries must thus build their own climate agendas for the energy sector,balancing economic development and decarbonization at the glo
76、bal scale.TABLE OF CONTENTS11GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryLatin America and the Caribbean falls behind in terms of economic development,but monet
77、ization of natural gas resources can lead to greater prosperityLatin America and the Caribbean is a vast and heterogeneous region,where most countries are rated as middle to low-income by the World Bank.Poverty and inequality are by far two of the most critical socio-economic challenges in the regio
78、n.According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),one-third of the regions more than 650 million inhabitants live in poverty,13%in extreme poverty,and there are high levels of inequality.However,the region is rich in natural gas resources and the natural gas sector is
79、 well-established in many countries,making significant contributions to GDP,foreign investment,job creation,and social welfare.In this paper,many monetization opportunities and success stories are highlighted.Countries such as Trinidad&Tobago,Peru,and Bolivia,have shown tremendous economic growth in
80、 the last two decades thanks to export-led developments of natural gas resources,the first two integrated into the global market via LNG and the latter via pipelines to neighboring countries.The Vaca Muerta play,in the Neuquen basin in Argentina,is a massive unconventional reservoir successfully bei
81、ng developed that has attracted US$20 billion in investments and has the potential to make Argentina the next major LNG exporting country.Brazil shows opportunities in the pre-salt region,Colombia has demonstrated the positive role of a strong gas penetration and has excellent promise in its recent
82、offshore discoveries,while Guyana and Suriname are the two rising stars of the oil and gas industry because of massive discoveries that have been made offshore,opening the opportunity for dramatically boosting their economies.There is a window of opportunity to monetize natural gas resources in Lati
83、n America and the Caribbean,contributing to the decarbonization of some sectors of the region and the main emitting regions in the world.For this purpose,the role of public and private companies local and international is crucial,as are the contributions of policymakers and regulators,accelerating t
84、he regulatory development that creates a stable framework to attract investment to the region.Energy transitions should not be neutral to their impacts in poverty and inequality.Just transitions need to be deployed.For Latin America and the Caribbean,this means taking advantage of natural gas resour
85、ces to contribute to economic diversification,sustainable growth,and energy transition.TABLE OF CONTENTS12GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryLatin Amer
86、ica and the Caribbean natural gas can help to phase-out coal in power generation globally and enable renewables in the regionCoal still represents 43%of the primary energy supply for power generation globally,mainly driven by four large countries:China,India,the USA,and Russia.In 2021,51%of addition
87、al power generation was produced by coal,32%by renewables,and 9%by natural gas;so,while coal is being phased out in many countries,it is still the major source to supply electricity demand growth.Coal emits 2.6 times more CO2 than natural gas for power generation,while natural gas provides at the sa
88、me time energy security and flexibility,an essential feature for the development of intermittent renewable energy.Incentivizing a mix of natural gas and renewable energy to substitute coal is a low-hanging fruit to accelerate the transition;natural gas resources from Latin America and the Caribbean
89、could contribute to supplying the gas needed for the global shift away from coal.A very different situation exists regionally in Latin America and the Caribbean,where the power mix is dominated by hydropower,coal plays only a marginal role with 5%of the market share,and natural gas has many function
90、s depending on the country considered(baseload,peak-shaving,flexibility,etc.).There is room for natural gas to replace coal for power generation in the region,mainly in Chile,where it represents around one-third of the share,but also in Central America and the Caribbean,where expensive,imported,and
91、highly polluting fuel oil,diesel or coal play a central role.LNG-to-power projects have been successfully developed in the Dominican Republic,Panama,El Salvador,and Jamaica.In countries like Brazil,natural gas is crucial in providing flexibility to the power sector.This was evident during the last m
92、assive drought in 2021 when water reservoirs hit record lows,and LNG imports hit record highs.Natural gas is the dominant source of energy for power generation only in a few countries like Argentina,Bolivia,Trinidad&Tobago,and Mexico.This paper shows how natural gas has helped to vastly reduce emiss
93、ions in some countries.In brief,thinking about natural gas in the regions power sector implies understanding the specific role that natural gas plays in the particular context being considered.Additionally,with a more medium-term focus,new combined-cycle gas turbine(CCGT)power plants can consume bot
94、h natural gas and hydrogen,thus reinforcing the role of gaseous molecules in ensuring a reliable energy supply in case of renewables intermittency.TABLE OF CONTENTS13GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Cas
95、e for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryRoad transport is a priority sector for the regionIn Latin America and the Caribbean,because of the regions geography and economic system,primarily based on the exports of natural resources located inland at great distances from the ports,the transpo
96、rt sectors share of CO2 emissions is much higher than in other regions,around 40%,and reaching approximately 600 Mt of CO2/per annum(OLADE Panorama Energtico,2022).The bulk of goods and people transportation(about 85%of tonne-km)is done by trucks and buses fueled by inefficient diesel engines.Combus
97、ting natural gas produces 27%fewer CO2 emissions than diesel fuel on an energy equivalent basis,so shifting to natural gas can bring quick wins and sustainable solutions where natural gas is abundant.This will avoid generating lock-ins or stranded assets in this very complex sector,where many techno
98、logies are just emerging(e.g.,electric,hydrogen,etc.).At the same time,natural gas use is reducing substantially pollutants like SOx and NOx,thereby improving air quality in the cities and the region at large.There are many success stories detailed in the countries insights,such as the Transmilenio
99、bus system in Bogot,or the relatively large-scale development of compressed natural gas(CNG)as a vehicle fuel in some countries such as Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Colombia,or Peru.Maritime transport is another sector where many evident opportunities ariseInternational maritime transport is a relativel
100、y concentrated market,with a mandate for decarbonization established by the International Maritime Organization(IMO).LNG can reduce GHG emissions by more than 20%in bunker vessels in the short term with a mature and safe technology that can pave the way to net zero.The strategic position of the Pana
101、ma Canal and increasing LNG infrastructure are two critical drivers for success.While not much progress has been made to date,a successful LNG shipping experience in the River Plate is highlighted in the document.Decarbonizing natural gas is also a top priorityNatural gas companies are striving to r
102、educe their carbon footprint by reducing flaring,venting,and boil-offs,as these represent new competitive advantages.While there is an overarching energy transition,the natural gas industry is actively pursuing options for improving its own transition to low-carbon gases.The main emerging alternativ
103、e technologies are CCUS,biomethane,and hydrogen;there are opportunities for all of them in Latin America and the Caribbean.Some of them are highlighted in the document,particularly biomethane in Brazil or hydrogen,ammonia,and methanol production in Trinidad&Tobago.TABLE OF CONTENTS14GAS WHITE PAPER
104、LAC/EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNatural Gas in the Transition to Low-Carbon EconomiesThe Case for Latin America&the CaribbeanExecutive SummaryNatural gas can contribute to decarbonize the agricultural sector in Latin America and the CaribbeanNew poles of regional gas integration are naturally emergingThe compl
105、exity of the transition to low-carbon economies is also impacted by shifts in other key products and materials for economic prosperity.In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean,agriculture is a crucial activity,and it relies mainly on imported fertilizers.Industrializing natural gas,where abund
106、ant,represents another opportunity for development,which could add more value to the molecules and substitute imports.New The dynamics of natural gas supply and consumption patterns have been changing in the region,opening new opportunities for mutually beneficial solutions through natural gas regio
107、nal integration.In the Southern Cone,where physical integration has existed since the 1990s,the development of Vaca Muerta,the opening of the natural gas market in Brazil prompting surges in demand,and the production dynamics in Bolivia,are changing the integration map of the sub-region;it combines
108、with new possibilities to supply gas from Argentina to Brazil,directly via new pipelines,through LNG,or in an integrated solution including Bolivia as an infrastructure hub.In the South Caribbean,Trinidad&Tobagos declining production and consequent underused gas industrialization and LNG export tech
109、nologies such as CCUS/blue hydrogen can help to reduce the carbon footprint of fertilizer production in the short term,by utilizing depleted fields.The main opportunities arise in countries with abundant natural gas reserves,some level of industrial development,and vast agricultural activity.This is
110、 very relevant for some countries such as Brazil,the leader in agricultural exports.infrastructure capacity could leverage the development of neighbor Venezuelas non-associated offshore gas reserves.Discoveries offshore Colombia,Guyana,and Suriname could complement this picture.Mexico,which is devel
111、oping infrastructure to export US shale gas through the Pacific Basin,can be considered another emerging pole and also has deepwater gas potential.Finally,LNG will also play a key role in regional gas integration and energy security,as it could provide the flexibility that pipelines cannot or where
112、they are not feasible to be built,such as in the Caribbean islands.In summary,natural gas is essential to the sustainable economic and social development of the Latin America and Caribbean region.It is also a mature technology,ready to contribute and provide quick wins that are consistent with long-
113、term decarbonization objectives.Collaboration and pragmatism are the keys.TABLE OF CONTENTS15TABLE OF CONTENTS16Climate change is one of the greatest,most urgent,and complex challenges of our time.According to the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(I
114、PCC)1,the average surface temperature has increased approximately 1C since the 19th century.The same report states that this trend,mainly caused by the increasing concentration of GHGs in the Earths atmosphere,is unequivocally caused by human activity.The Paris Agreement2,signed in 2015 during the 2
115、1st Conference of the Parties(COP21)of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),and adopted by almost all countries,is the cornerstone of climate action today.It established the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2C,preferably to 1.5C,compared to pre-industrial le
116、vels and defined several instruments for its implementation,such as the elaboration of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)and Long-Term Climate Strategies(LTS),among others.Undoubtedly,collaboration between governments,international organizations,and the private sector are needed to achieve th
117、is massive goal.This is now even more important,following the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)report3,which revised the possibility of reaching the 1.5C threshold in the next five years down to 50%.Energy is an essential input for any human activity,and for social and economic development.The
118、use of coal first,and oil and natural gas later,generated a leapfrog in productivity,enhancing overall welfare levels and shaping the world as we know it today.However,around 73%of global GHG emissions are generated by energy use,particularly by burning fossil fuels.For this reason,decarbonization a
119、nd tackling climate change imply a radical transformation in how we supply and use energy.To keep temperature rise within a range that averts the worst climate effects,all industrial sectors and end-users must transform their consumption patterns.However,this change in behaviors will be a real corne
120、rstone in the achievement of climate goals in the coming years.This is particularly so,given that the concept of“hard-to-abate”sectors is extended today not only to those industrial sectors with technical challenges to overcome,but also to sectors where a socio-economic component is one of the main
121、bottlenecks.At the same time,the transition must be just,as large numbers of the worlds inhabitants still do not have sufficient access to energy,which undermines their development opportunities;or their livelihoods rely mostly on the fossil fuels value chains.Introduction1 IPCC,2021:Summary for Pol
122、icymakers.In:Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Masson-Delmotte,V.,P.Zhai,A.Pirani,S.L.Connors,C.Pan,S.Berger,N.Caud,Y.Chen,L.Goldfarb,M.I.Gomis,M.Huang,K.Leitzell,E.Lonnoy,J.B
123、.R.Matthews,T.K.Maycock,T.Waterfield,O.Yeleki,R.Yu,and B.Zhou(eds.).Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,NY,USA,pp.332,doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.2 https:/unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement 3 WMO,World Metrological Organization.Clim
124、ate Update 2022-2026.Publication May 2022.4 Hannah Ritchie,Max Roser and Pablo Rosado(2020)-“CO and Greenhouse Gas Emissions”.Published online at OurWorldInData.org.Retrieved from:https:/ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions Online ResourceThe average surface temperature has risen appr
125、oximatelyThe probabilities to reach the 1,5C threshold are1C since the 19th Century.in the next five years.50:5073%443%GHG Emissions from EnergyGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/INTRODUCTIONWorldLACTABLE OF CONTENTS17The fulfilment of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),however,implies a hol
126、istic approach.There are no one-size-fits-all solutions,as each country departs from a very different starting point in terms of energy supply,energy use,infrastructure,geography,resource endowments,economic and social situation.Therefore,all energy sources will have a role in the transition to low-
127、carbon economies.A comprehensive,rational,science-based approach is necessary to face the double challenge of decarbonizing the world economy while granting economic and social development to a growing population.5 Stakeholders Dialogue.The Social and Economic Value Creation of Gas Molecules in The
128、Energy Transition.21.9.22 Joint Statement ARPEL,OLADE,IGU,CAF-Banco de Desarrollo de America Latina,with the support of IBP.In this context,many opportunities arise for decarbonizing through natural gas and low carbon gases in Latin America and the Caribbean.The region is vast,complex,and heterogene
129、ous but,in general terms,is composed of middle-to-low-income countries with high levels of poverty and inequality,a relatively decarbonized power sector,a lower than average contribution to climate change,and a GHG emissions profile driven by the Agricultural,Forestry,and Other Land Use sectors(AFOL
130、U),whose emissions are greater than those from energy use in many countries.Conversely,the region is endowed with vast and diverse natural resources,and the gas sector plays a key role,being the main source of exports,fiscal income or investment in some countries.The following pages describe and exp
131、lore opportunities for the region,including the development of domestic natural gas resources both for use in the country or for export to decarbonize other regions of the world;decarbonization of demand-side sectors such as transport,industry,or power generation;enhancing the deployment of renewabl
132、e energy;fostering the development of innovative alternatives such as biogas,biomethane,or hydrogen;and introducing new value chains such as fertilizer production,among others.The paper also provides deep dives into some countries to illustrate the above-mentioned opportunities and their business ca
133、ses.There are insights from Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Guyana,Mexico,Peru,Suriname,Trinidad&Tobago,Venezuela,and the region of Central America and the Caribbean.The International Gas Union(IGU),the Regional Association of Oil,Gas,and Renewable Energy Companies in Latin America a
134、nd the Caribbean(ARPEL),and the Latin America Energy Organization(OLADE),are three organizations committed to decarbonization of the energy system.IGU,as a body of the international gas industry;ARPEL,as a body of the Latin America and the Caribbean oil,gas,and energy industry;and OLADE,as an adviso
135、ry organization to the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean,are working to enhance climate action in their areas of influence.ARPEL,IGU,and OLADE partnered to develop this white paper,with the objective of establishing a common narrative about the role and opportunities for natural gas and
136、 low-carbon gases in Latin America and the Caribbean,aiming to contribute to international energy dialogue,and hence to the effective and just transition of the energy system in the region.The paper was prepared in close collaboration with the national gas associations,and other key stakeholders in
137、the region.The consultative process included a First Stakeholder Dialogue5 held in Rio de Janeiro in September 2022,meetings and interviews,and a peer-review carried out in February 2023.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/INTRODUCTIONTABLE OF CONTENTS18 Effectiveness:Results matter,all technologies and sources of
138、energy have a role to play in the transition(also the ones still to be developed)Collaboration:Natural gas can accelerate the transition while enabling the deployment of other low-carbon sources(bio-methane,hydrogen,e-gases)Timing is critical:natural gas and green gases can mitigate emissions today
139、with proven and mature technology Consistency:short-term delivery and long-term goals Flexibility:no“bans”approach to amplify options to succeed Industry must do its best efforts to reduce GHG emissions in its own value chain(efficiency,flaring,venting,boil-offs,etc.)Emissions are crucial,as sustain
140、ability and governance are for the overall value chain Stakeholder alignment,to create value for society Positive and continuous dialogue between industry,finance,and policymakers,built on transparency,compliance and reporting Decarbonization and alignment with the Paris Agreement Socio-economic dev
141、elopment(leaving no-one behind and maintaining uninterruptible the energy demand)Just transition and affordability Technological neutrality Costs and early stages technologies Financing mechanisms Energy and food security in line with population growth Seeking to build a bridge between today and fut
142、ure generations Energy transitions are essentially social,economic,and technical processes Diverse pathways for decarbonization for different geographies and starting points Overall value chain approach to include technology,infrastructure,regulations,players,and energy services;including“hard-to-ab
143、ate”or“hard-to-electrify”sectors A cost-benefit approachRationalePragmatismThe value of Environmental,Social&Governance(ESG)Good PracticesDriving ForcesComplexityGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/RATIONALEThis joint initiative tries to provide a snapshot of the complexity of decarbonization,with the necessity of
144、balancing energy transition,affordability,and security the Energy Trilemma but with an understanding that it is not only restricted to energy as natural gas and low-carbon gases are also feedstock for chemicals,fertilizers,and synthetic fuels in the short term.Our hope is that this paper offers a br
145、oad perspective to the different stakeholders and inspires the journey to a circular economy,contextualizing the relevance of gas molecules in the prosperity of nations,supporting the commitments of the UN goals,and highlighting the role of natural gas and low-carbon gases as cornerstones of climate
146、 change mitigation.The chart below offers an overview of the rationale that has led the papers preparation.TABLE OF CONTENTS19TABLE OF CONTENTS20GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOS1.Energy demand is most likely to grow steadily until 2050Most scenarios forecast energy demand growth in the next
147、 three decades.Driven by population growth and economic development,energy demand growth will put additional pressure on the energy supply and the minerals/metals value chain.How this gap will be filled is not a trivial question regarding emissions and the pathways for decarbonization.2.There is a h
148、igh level of uncertainty for natural gasThere is no alignment about the future global demand for natural gas.The range between the high and low scenarios is 7,157 Bcm,about 80%larger than todays natural gas market.Uncertainty lies mainly in how climate policies,alternative technologies,and low-carbo
149、n gases will unfold in the short-to-medium term.However,most of the scenarios under a“forecast approach”expect demand for natural gas to increase from the current level;while scenarios expecting a sharp decrease are based on a“backcast approach”.Understanding the opportunities for natural gas in Lat
150、in America and the Caribbean in the energy transition implies looking into the future.While climate change and policy action are the governing forces of the transition to low-carbon economies,little can be said about what the process will be.Perhaps the only certain thing about the future of energy
151、is that it is deeply uncertain.However,based on the analysis of the scenarios and prospective documents published by the most reputable international organizations working in the energy sector,this chapter identifies key trends and conclusions for natural gas about which there is a high level of agr
152、eement.The second part of the chapter gives an insight into Latin America and the Caribbean,based on the OLADE scenarios.IntroductionTrends about natural gas in modeling scenariosTotal Primary Energy Demand Scenarios Through 2050(Million boe/d)Natural Gas Demand Scenarios Through 2050(bcm)Source:IEF
153、 Scenarios Considered:IEA,WEO 2022.OPEC WOO 2022,IRENA World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022,BP Energy Outlook 2022,GECF 2022 Global Gas Outloon to 2050,Equinor Energy Perspectives 2022,BNEF New Energy Outlook 2022,IEEJ Outlook 2023,IPCC Climate Change 2022:Migration of Climate Change.Source:IEF Sce
154、narios Considered:IEA,WEO 2022.OPEC WOO 2022,IRENA World Energy Transitions Outlook 2022,BP Energy Outlook 2022,GECF 2022 Global Gas Outloon to 2050,Equinor Energy Perspectives 2022,BNEF New Energy Outlook 2022,IEEJ Outlook 2023,IPCC Climate Change 2022:Migration of Climate Change.TABLE OF CONTENTS2
155、13.Natural gas demand growth is expected to come from the emerging world Demand is expected to increase in emerging economies,driven by economic and population growth,while the developed world transitions to low-carbon energy,including biomethane and other gases.4.LNG trade and infrastructure are ex
156、pected to grow,adding flexibility and security to energy supplyLNG trade has been growing steadily in the last decade.In 2012,there were 93 LNG regasification terminals in 26 countries with a total regasification capacity of 668 Mtpa;the volume traded was 236.3 Mt(Source:GIIGNL).In 2022,importing ma
157、rkets increased by 18,reaching 44 in total.Regasification capacity grew by 49%,reaching 993 Mtpa,and the total traded volume was 372.3 Mt,representing an increase of 58%.This trend is expected to continue in the future,based on announced projects and the views of the different scenarios,some of them
158、,already in progress,such as Vietnam and Philippines,the new LNG import countries in 2023.As the LNG market matures and becomes more liquid,it becomes more attractive as a source of flexibility and energy security,especially when floating,regasification,and storage units(FSRUs)are deployed.Growing i
159、nfrastructure will also open new opportunities,such as decarbonizing maritime transport.No matter what the future looks like,natural gas sector needs to make its own transition,through carbon-offsetting,CCUS,incorporating low-carbon gases to the portfolios,among others.Most of these technologies are
160、 relatively mature,being“non-regret”investment options that need to be developed.Source:IEA WEO 2022Natural Gas in IEAs World Energy Outlook 2022 Scenarios5.The natural gas sector needs to make its own transitionGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSStated Policies Scenario(STEPS)Announced Pledge
161、s Scenario(APS)Net Zero Emissions by 2050(NZE)TABLE OF CONTENTS226.Windows of opportunity will not always be open Demand for natural gas is expected to be more competitive in the future,given other low-carbon gas alternatives.Thus,taking advantage of the windows of opportunity that are now open impl
162、ies being proactive in creating the conditions for the investments needed in E&P,infrastructure,and market legislation that offer stable conditions for the energy and financial sector.Other key conclusions 7.Timing and the pathways of transition are crucial,but scenarios say little about this Energy
163、 demand is expected to grow in the decades to come,opening a gap in energy supply that must be filled with different energy sources.Renewable energy solutions are not yet mature enough to fill this gap for many reasons(e.g.,technology,infrastructure,supply chain,etc.)and will not be ready to scale u
164、p at the pace needed;part of this gap will be necessarily covered with fossil fuels.Accepting this fact would lead to more balanced and effective transition pathways,as putting too much pressure on an unrealistic path could lead to bottlenecks that ultimately favor more carbon-intensive alternatives
165、,thus delaying the transition.In other words,imposing restrictions on natural gas,the cleaner and more flexible of fossil fuels,may result in favoring coal and other worst alternatives regarding GHG emissions and environmental impacts.8.Natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean Despite the acce
166、lerated penetration of alternative and renewable energy sources by virtue of a policy of deep decarbonization of the energy sector,it is expected that natural gas will continue to be one of the most important sources of energy supply in Latin America and the Caribbean.The largest economies in the re
167、gion,such as Brazil,Mexico,Argentina,and Colombia,show no signs of dispensing with the use of natural gas in their energy systems.According to OLADE,natural gas share in the Latin America and the Caribbean total primary energy supply would be between 21%and 30%in 2050,depending on the scenario consi
168、dered.The versatility of natural gas for use in different sectors and energy systems,its low cost in the region,abundance of regional resources,and relatively low carbon emissions,guarantee its role in the regional energy matrix in the medium and long term.The transition is not only about the end po
169、int but also about how to reach that point.Comprehensive energy planning is needed to find robust transition pathways.Scenario techniques used for energy planning should be stress-tested to be more informative about the potential bottlenecks and their impacts on transition pathways,helping to avoid
170、unintended consequences.The special situation with metals and minerals,more concentrated in several locations,constraints for the finance of greenfield and brownfield projects,the quality decline of some minerals reservoirs,as well as the role of the power sector(the mineral sector is a high electri
171、city consumer),should be considered,to maximize and design the decarbonization through decarbonized materials.An orderly transition is also related to the more effective measures to reduce the CO2 emissions.Natural gas and hydrogen scenarios include the production of fertilizers and synthetic fuels.
172、Today,half of global fertilizer production is underpinned by natural gas,utilized as feedstock to produce hydrogen.Given the expected increase in global population of 2 billion in the coming years,demand for both energy and affordable food will increase as well.Additionally,synthetic fuels and biofu
173、els could be good alternatives in the mid and long term.As emissions from the transport sector surpass those from power generation in some countries,and it is the fastest-growing source of global emissions,stress-tested scenarios should analyze the alternatives of bio-fuels,synthetic fuels,and natur
174、al gas jointly with electric vehicles.Due to the atomization of the transport sector with a huge number of private vehicles,its decarbonization is particularly challenging,and it is directly related to GDP per capita.Up to now,all the scenarios show continuing coal consumption by the end of the peri
175、od.As burning coal emits more than double the CO2 compared with natural gas,stress-tested scenarios should minimize coal consumption with the support of natural gas to anchor renewable capacity deployment.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSTABLE OF CONTENTS23Each year OLADE publishes the Energ
176、y Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,which,in addition to the statistics of the regions energy sector,includes a prospective chapter,where long-term energy scenarios for the region are presented.In the last edition of this publication(2022),two scenarios were analyzed for the period 2020-20
177、50:A reference scenario or baseline(BAU)where the evolution of the regions energy sector is projected based on historical trend patterns and expansion plans published by OLADE Member Countries,and;A prospective scenario(PRO NET 0)where a deep decarbonization policy of the energy sector is simulated,
178、in order to contribute to climate change mitigation strategies and achieve the long-awaited global goal of zero net CO2 emissions by 2050.It is worth mentioning that due to the abundant availability of the natural gas resource in the region,its competitive price,and its lower carbon emission factor
179、compared to other fossil fuels,both in the BAU scenario and in the PRO NET 0 scenario,natural gas plays a fundamental role in the regional energy supply,being considered in many countries as a means of transition towards a low-carbon economy.With this background,the results of the prospective use of
180、 natural gas in the Latin America and the Caribbean are presented below.According to the expansion plans published by the countries of the region and their historical evolution,for the BAU reference scenario,the consumption of natural gas in the region would almost double in 2050,compared to the bas
181、e year(2020).In the PRO NET 0 scenario,although consumption would have a more accelerated growth until 2030,from that year this growth slows down,reaching 2050 with a value only 40%higher than that of the base year and 20%lower than projected in the BAU scenario.IntroductionProspective consumption o
182、f natural gasNatural Gas prospective in Latin America and the CaribbeanSource:Energy Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Projection of total final consumption of natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean,by scenarioGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSTABLE OF CONTENTS24Th
183、e sub-sectors that predominate in the internal demand for natural gas in the region are electricity generation and industry.Under the premises of the reference scenario(BAU),the total domestic demand for natural gas would increase by 132%compared to the base year during the projection period,with th
184、e demand for electricity generation having the greatest increase with 190%.Even under the hypothesis of a profound decarbonization of the energy sector(PRO NET 0),growth in domestic demand for natural gas would continue until 2040,driven mainly by electricity generation.That year it would begin to d
185、ecrease,reaching 2050,with a value 40%higher than that of the base year,but 40%lower than that projected in the BAU scenario.It is also worth noting the increase in the consumption of natural gas in the transport sector,which by 2050 is more than triple that projected in the BAU scenario,for the sam
186、e year.BAU scenarioPRO NET 0 scenarioProjection of domestic demand for natural gas in the region by subsectorsSource:Energy Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Source:Energy Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Projection of domestic demand for natural gas in Latin
187、 America and the Caribbean,BAU scenarioProjection of domestic demand for natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean,PRO NET 0 scenarioGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSTABLE OF CONTENTS25Many of the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean contemplate the installation of new natural g
188、as power plants in their expansion plans,displacing the use of coal or liquid fossil fuels as firm energy back-up for their generation systems,with an increasing component of non-manageable renewable energies such as wind and solar.In this context,in both scenarios the expansion of the natural gas p
189、ower generation capacity is maintained,with the difference that while in the BAU scenario the capacity of these plants triples by 2050,in the PRO NET 0 scenario it only increases 87%compared to the base year.Power generation capacityProjection of electricity generation from natural gasSource:Energy
190、Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Projection of natural gas-fired power generation capacity in Latin America and the CaribbeanRegarding electricity generation,while in the BAU scenario natural gas plants practically triple their energy production in the projection period,in the P
191、RO NET 0 scenario this production shows a moderate net increase until 2040,when it begins to decrease.By 2050,production falls 10%compared to the base year and is 70%less than what is projected in the BAU scenario for the same year.This decrease is due to the greater penetration of technologies with
192、 renewable sources,which have a higher priority in energy dispatch.Electricity generationSource:Energy Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Projection of electricity generation with natural gas in LACGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSTABLE OF CONTENTS26Regarding the participa
193、tion of natural gas in the regions total energy supply matrix,while in the BAU scenario this source remains in second place in importance behind oil and oil products,with around 30%participation,in the PRO NET 0 scenario it falls to third place with a 21%share.Projection of the participation of natu
194、ral gas in the total energy supply matrix of Latin America and the CaribbeanSource:Energy Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,OLADE,2022Projection of the total energy supply matrix in Latin America and the CaribbeanGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/NATURAL GAS SCENARIOSTABLE OF CONTENTS27TABLE OF CONTENTS
195、28Socio-Ecomomic OverviewLatin America and the Caribbean OverviewSECTION 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS29Latin America and the Caribbean is a vast and heterogeneous region.With an area of over 20 million km2 and a population exceeding 650 million inhabitants,it is a region of diverse geographies and climate sy
196、stems;including the worlds largest rainforest,the most extensive mountain range,and the driest desert.Around 80%of the population lives in cities,mainly concentrated in the capitals and some large urban areas.Its average population density is around 31 people per km2,highly concentrated in urban are
197、as and less concentrated in rural ones.This fact is an important obstacle for infrastructure development and a challenge for livability in built-up areas.In terms of socio-economic indicators there are also very diverse realities.Some 75%of the regions countries are in the low-income range,with sign
198、ificant levels of poverty and inequality,affecting the potential to have access to goods and services.The regions GINI coefficient,with a single average of 0.4521 has followed a deterioration path.Regional female labor participation is still inferior to male participation(51.8%vs 74.5%respectively2)
199、.The unemployment rates3 estimations for 2021 range from 11.6%for women to 7.8%for men.The consecutive Covid-19 and energy-food crises have resulted in Latin America and the Caribbean becoming one of the most affected regions economically.This has particularly impacted female labor participation,whi
200、ch has regressed to rates last seen two decades ago,increasing the gender gap even more.Fiscal deficit and access to capital are challenging,as recurrent macroeconomic problems affect the financial cost of projects and ease of doing business.According to the United Nations Report 2022,“The Sustainab
201、le Development Goals Report”,rising inflation and the impacts of the Ukraine-Russia conflict have resulted in an increase in the projection of people living in extreme poverty in 2022,from 581 million in the previous forecast to between 657-676 million.This equals 1 in 10 people worldwide suffering
202、from hunger.The UN SDGs are focused on reducing inequality among countries and ensuring access to affordable,reliable,sustainable,and modern energy for all.Global population growth is a key indicator when predicting growth in energy access.With an increase of 80%in the last 40 years,driven by the gr
203、owth in Asia,Africa,and Latin America and the Caribbean,the worlds population has nearly doubled from 4.4 billion people to 8 billion in 2022.The revised calculation published by the UN estimates reaching 9 billion people in 15 years and 10 billion by 2058.With a current estimated population of 662
204、million people,the Latin America and Caribbean region represents 8.2%of the global population,with projections of 752 million people by 2060.Furthermore,a deeper analysis by ECLAC emphasizes a change in the demographic pyramid,with a move towards an aging population,and the subsequent new challenges
205、4 it entails.Latin America is a natural resource-rich region,and many countries are highly dependent on their extractive industries in terms of exports,investment,government income,and GDP.In fact,almost all countries in South America are oil and gas producers,in addition to those in Central America
206、 and the Caribbean.Natural gas is a key industry in countries such as Trinidad&Tobago,Bolivia,and Peru(the exporting countries of the region),but it plays an important role in other countries too.Mining is also a critical activity,being the most important industry in Peru and Chile,for example.The r
207、egion is also rich in agricultural land and forests,supporting two important sectors of the economy;and there is a vast renewable energy potential still to be developed.The growth pressure of the regions population in the last decades,together with an expected aging before mid-century brings new pol
208、icy challenges,mainly for pension system coverage,and health systems.To begin to address these social challenges it is essential to reinforce and improve growth of the regional economy,which has been stagnant in the last few decades,reducing the gap with the most developed countries and restructurin
209、g the balance of payments.Compared to other continents,Latin America and the Caribbeans power system is the most decarbonized;which could foster a new reindustrialization,in an international context that rewards the best carbon footprint of any business.Additionally,the regions natural gas and criti
210、cal mineral resources,as exports,have the potential to decarbonize other regions,not forgetting the relevance of fertilizer production,in a world where an additional 2 billion people are expected to demand more food and energy by mid-century.Population1 ECLAC,Social Panorama of Latin America and the
211、 Caribbean 2022.https:/repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/48519/1/S2200946_en.pdf(page 25).2 International Labour Organization,2022,“Labour Overview Latin America and the Caribbean”.3 Idem 14 Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centre(CELADE),the Population Division of ECLAC,United Na
212、tions 2022.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS30World8 billion peopleProjection 10 billion people(by 2060)Extreme poverty 8.2%populationLatin America and the Caribbean 662 million people(8.2%)Projection 752 million people(by 2060)Pove
213、rty 32%populationExtreme poverty 13%populationData Source:World Population Prospects,United Nations 2022Population growth(2022 vs 1980)Data Source:World Population Prospects,United Nations 2022Population (Million inhabitants)GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC
214、 OVERVIEWNorthern America(US,Canada)EuropeAsiaAfricaAustralia/New ZelandLatin America and the Caribbean0050005000450020221980TABLE OF CONTENTS31Data Source:World Bank(WDI Database)GDP/per capita LAC(Current US$)From an economic perspective,Latin America and the Caribbean is
215、 formed by developing and under-developed nations,with among the lowest GDP per capita in the world,a key indicator to comprehend the overall wellbeing of the population,as well as its position relative to other economies.Inter-country comparison shows that GDP per capita in Latin America and the Ca
216、ribbean is significantly below the OECD6 average.With an average of US$8,340 per capita,it is worth mentioning the extreme poverty that exists in Guatemala,Suriname,Jamaica,Belize,El Salvador,Bolivia,Honduras,Nicaragua,and Haiti,with a GDP of less than US$5,000 per capita.Economic indicatorsData Sou
217、rce:World Bank(WDI Database)GDP/per capita LAC(Current US$)6 OECD:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWFurthermore,as a consequence of the international situation,the GDP growth of Latin America and
218、the Caribbean is slowing down,with limited scope for monetary and fiscal policies in a complex environment.It is worth noting that as OECD observes in its Latin America Economy Outlook 2022,GDP per capita growth has stagnated in the region since 1980,not only hindering its convergence with more adva
219、nced economies,but also not following the growth trend of the emerging markets in Asia.These differences of behavior in the economy,between Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia were highlighted in 2022 by ECLAC as structural,“public investment in Latin America and the Caribbean is lower than in
220、other regions of the world in both absolute and relative terms.On average,general government gross fixed capital formation in the region has been significantly lower than that recorded in emerging and developing Asian economies in recent decades,a period over which Asian countries have built dynamic
221、 and diversified economies”TABLE OF CONTENTS32GDP LAC:5,400 current billion US$(Equivalent to 24%of the main economy USA,23,300 current billion US$)GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWSource:CEPALSTATPoverty and income distributionData Source:World Ban
222、k(WDI Database)GDP/per capita (current US$)TABLE OF CONTENTS33GDP growth in Latin America and Caribbean has followed a trend below that of the biggest economies,leading to an impoverishment of the region,which has been exacerbated in the last decade,while the economies of Southeast Asia and China ha
223、ve kept up their bullish momentum.Data Source:World Bank(WDI Database)GDP growth(%)Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency.Aggregates are based on constant 2015 prices,expressed in U.S.dollarsIn absolute terms,GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean is t
224、hree times lower than the European GDP,with a similar population.Data Source:World Bank(WDI Database)World GDP(billion current US$)20002000420052006200720082009200000.0015.0010.005.00-(5.00)(10.00)WORLDUNITED STATESCHIINAEUROPEAN UNIONSOUTHEAST
225、ASIALACGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS34As mentioned by the American University of Washington DC,in its paper,“Innovation,Inclusion,and Institutions:East Asian Lessons for Latin America?”7 sustained economic growth in the Asian co
226、untries taken as examples has led to a reduction in poverty and inequality,and job creation has allowed for the funding of social welfare expenditures.The situation in Latin America and the Caribbean is one of stagnation,neither economic growth nor productivity has increased to enable the region to
227、modify its status,and the gap with the most developed economies is increasing.Looking at the extreme poverty threshold of US$1.9 per day and the ambition of SDG target 1.1,by 2030,all countries,regions,and groups within countries,should achieve zero poverty with regard to this international poverty
228、line.As of today,Latin America and the Caribbean starts from a worse base case.Poverty levels are translated automatically into less access to services like education,electricity,healthcare,sanitation,inter alia,and making the societies more vulnerable to migration movements,climate change,and confl
229、icts.Source:CEPAL(ECLAC)2022LAC(projection of 17 countries)poverty(%)United Nations:Poverty entails more than the lack of income and productive resources to ensure sustainable livelihoods.Its manifestations include hunger and malnutrition,limited access to education and other basic services,social d
230、iscrimination,and exclusion,as well as the lack of participation in decision-making.Ending poverty in all its forms is the first of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.706050403020100ARGENTINABRAZILCHILECOLOMBIACOSTA RICADOMINICANREPUBLICECUADOREL
231、 SALVADORGUATEMALAHONDURASMEXICONICARAGUAPANAMAPARAGUAYPERUURUGUAYLATIN AMERICABOLIVIA(PLURINATIONALSTATE OF)2022(BASE CASE)2022(BASE CASE+2%ADDITIONAL INFLATION)2021Data Source:World Bank(WDI Database)LAC(GDP Billion current US$)7 Industrial Upgrading and Innovation Capability for Inclusive Growth:
232、Lessons from East Asia.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS35In its June 2022 report8“Repercussions in Latin America and the Caribbean of the War in Ukraine”,ECLAC reports on its expectations of poverty levels in 2022 reaching 33%,comp
233、ared to 27.8%in 2014,and a doubling of extreme poverty from 7.8%in 2014 to 14.9%in 2022,whereas extreme poverty average in the rest of the world is 9%.Similar figures are mentioned in the OECD outlook 2022.The current climate,energy,and food crisis has driven economic deceleration and recession.More
234、over,inflation has exacerbated the regions vulnerabilities,resulting in the need for extraordinary policy measures,with the consequent increase in interest rates in the region.As highlighted by IMF,high inflation is a bigger challenge in smaller economies because they are less diversified,rely more
235、on imports,and have more limited policy levers at their disposal.Many of the small countries of the region have high public debt and elevated sovereign spreads.In the same June 2022 report,ECLAC remarks,“in 2023 Latin American and Caribbean countries will have to face an unfavorable international co
236、ntext once again,with forecasts for a deceleration in both global growth and trade,higher interest rates,and less global liquidity.“In South America,some countries are particularly affected by the low dynamism of China,which is an important market for their goods exports.This is the case,for example
237、,of Chile,Brazil,Peru,and Uruguay,8 Repercussions in Latin America and the Caribbean of the war in Ukraine:how should the region face this new crisis,ECLAC,2022.9 IMF,2022,“Do Monetary Policy Frameworks Matter in Low-Income Countries?”.Source:OECDInflation in selected Latin American countries(%)And
238、although IMF recognizes the effort made through the monetary policies of the regions governments in the last few decades,(in the early 1990s,inflation exceeded 40%in one-fourth of all LICs,and presently it has changed to single-digit inflation),the current crisis has provoked a new regression to hig
239、h inflation rates.“In recent years,most low-income countries(LICs)have been remarkably successful in reducing inflation to single-digit levels,and many LICS are engaged in reforms to make their monetary policy frameworks more systematic,transparent,and forward-looking,often with technical support fr
240、om the International Monetary Fund(IMF)”.A good example of this more systematic approach was seen at the beginning of 2021,when central banks in Latin America and the Caribbean implemented new policies to counter the growth of inflation,even earlier than the European Central Bank.which ship more tha
241、n 30%of their merchandise exports to China(40%for Chile).South America will also be impacted by the decline in commodities prices and by restrictions on the space that public policy has to bolster activity.High inflation has affected real income and the effects on private consumption have already be
242、en observed in some countries as of the second half of this year.”The impact of inflation has different effects on overall population and the extreme poverty groups,as can be observed in the analysis made by OECD,where many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean face an inflation rate of aroun
243、d 10%,while their poorest communities are impacted at an equivalent rate of around 40%,due mainly to the increase in food prices.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS36Source:ECLACLatin America and the Caribbean(selected countries):mone
244、tary policy interest rate.Jaunary 2019-July 2022(Percentages)The challenge to transform the regions economies is huge,where economic growth is a main priority,improving productivity,attracting new investments in all the sectors,leveraging on the good conditions in terms of resources and the decarbon
245、ized energy matrix.This can drive the improvement of social conditions and indirectly stimulates the decarbonization of sectors like transport,which is totally correlated to the GDP per capita.Under this macroeconomic perspective,energy plays a crucial role in achieving a sustainable growth,which is
246、 more inclusive,and reducing inequalities,giving Latin America and the Caribbean the best opportunity to reach the advanced economies and at the same time help other economies that need to be decarbonized urgently.Source:Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),on the basis of
247、official figures.Latin America and the Caribbean(countries that use the interest rate as the main monetary policy tool):variation in monetary policy rates.December 2020-July 2022(Percentages and percentage points)BrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicGuatemalaHondurasJamaicaMexicoParaguayPe
248、ruUruguayMonetary policy rate,31 December 2020(percentage)Monetary policy rate,15 July 2022(percentage)Variation(percentage points)Average variation(percentage points)Ratio between valuesat July 2022/December 2020Beginning of the rate riseNumber of rate increases2.00.501.750.753.001.753.000.504.000.
249、750.254.5013.259.757.505.507.252.253.005.507.757.756.009.7511.259.255.754.754.250.500.005.003.757.005.755.251.021.030.820.950.710.250.710.420.700.480.666.619.54.37.32.41.311.01.910.324.02.2128March 2021July 2021October 2021December 2021November 2021May 2022October 2021June 2021August 2021
250、August 2021August 20202019JanMarMayJulSepNov2021JanMarMayJulSepNov2022JanMarMayJul2020JanMarMayJulSepNovMxicoBrazilUruguayColombiaChilePeruA.Countries with flexible exchange ratesMain outstanding priorities to foster socio-economic growth in Latin America and the CaribbeanGAS WHITE PAPER
251、LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:SOCIO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS37Energy and GHG Emissions OverviewLatin America and the Caribbean OverviewSECTION 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS38GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWThe impact of met
252、hane emissions on the rate of climate change has become more prominent in the broader public debate in recent years,due to the immediate climate benefit of reducing them.Methane has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2,around 10 years,and“its impact on climate is reversible”2.Methane has acc
253、ounted for roughly 30%of global warming since pre-industrial times and is proliferating faster than at any other time since record keeping began in the 1980s.3Annual global methane emissions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty,with the most recent estimation Methane Emissions International C
254、ontextAnnual global methane emissions570Mt.Anthropogenic emissions:landfills,oil and natural gas systems,agricultural activities,coal mining,stationary and mobile combustion,wastewater treatment,and certain industrial processes.25%Agriculture8%Coal10%7%7%WasteOilGas60-65%Natural sources35-40%around
255、570 Mt4.About 60%-65%of methane emissions are due to human activities5,while the remaining 35%-40%are from natural sources.Historically,methane emissions are more difficult to track compared to CO2 emissions,these being mostly linked to economic activity.Agriculture6 is the main source of methane em
256、issions,responsible for about 25%of the total,followed by waste(10%),coal(8.0%),oil(7.2%),gas(7%),and bioenergy(2%).(The figures are for 2020 and 2021).Although in an aggregate visualization,energy(coal,oil,and gas)contributes around 24%,the technical and methane monetization capability differs subs
257、tantially between the different fossil fuels,which leads us to different solutions in the short-and mid-term periods.1 The Kyoto Protocol,an environmental agreement adopted by many of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)in 1997 to curb global warming,nowad
258、ays covers seven greenhouse gases2 WMO,https:/public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/more-bad-news-planet-greenhouse-gas-levels-hit-new-highs.3 United NationsEnvironment Programme(UNEP),https:/www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/methane-emissions-are-driving-climate-change-heres-how-reduce-them.4 IEA
259、,Methane Tracker.5 United States Environmental Protection Agency(EPA):Anthropogenic emission sources include landfills,oil and natural gas systems,agricultural activities,coal mining,stationary and mobile combustion,wastewater treatment,and certain industrial processes.https:/www.epa.gov/gmi/importa
260、nce-methane#:text=Methane%20is%20the%20second%20most,trapping%20heat%20in%20the%20atmosphere.6 UNEP,Agriculture includes livestock emissions and crops like paddy rice cultivation.Total GHG emissions1 are the sum of emissions of various gases:carbon dioxide(CO2),methane(CH4),nitrous oxide(N2O),and th
261、e fluorinated gas such as hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs),Sulphur hexafluoride(SF6),and Nitrogen trifluoride(NF3).Source:Our World in DataGlobal greenhouse gas emissions by gas2016IntroductionTABLE OF CONTENTS39In October 2022,WMO raised the alert about record levels of GHG emissions
262、,and in particular as regards methane,the organization highlighted:“Since 2007,globally-averaged atmospheric methane concentration has been increasing at an accelerating rate.The annual increases in 2020 and 2021(15 and 18 ppb respectively)are the largest since systematic record keeping began in 198
263、3.Causes are still being investigated by the global greenhouse gas science community.Analysis indicates that the largest contribution to the renewed increase in methane since 2007 comes from biogenic sources,such as wetlands or rice paddies.It is not yet possible to say if the extreme increases in 2
264、020 and 2021 represent a climate feedback if it gets warmer,the organic material decomposes faster.If it decomposes in the water(without oxygen)this leads to methane emissions.Thus,if tropical wetlands become wetter and warmer,more emissions are possible.”7 On the other hand,as a result of the Paris
265、 Agreement,175 out of 189 countries mention action on methane emissions within their NDCs.However,very few have entered into details about how they would reduce methane emissions up to 2030.This reflects a broader challenge with the level of details and content of commitments included in NDCs,and a
266、minority of countries have made no reference at all to these emissions in their NDCs.Given this background,many governments have been keen to push international coalitions to work with industry to make bolder commitments,including both:Voluntary action within individual companies and countries;and D
267、eveloping international minimum standards for methane emissions from oil and gas operations.Nevertheless,at this point there is a relevant consideration to underscore.Methane is the main component of natural gas,consequently capturing and monetizing emissions is the best option,not only from the cli
268、mate perspective but also from the economic perspective,given the existence of available technology.According to IEA,three-quarters of the emissions in the oil and gas sector could be captured with existing capabilities.Taking into account the number of industry commitments through different pledges
269、,the progress is on track and policymakers and industry must work together to create the conditions to accelerate and facilitate the required investments.Additionally,those emissions coming from manure and agro-industrial waste can be captured using anaerobic digestion(AD)technology(including small-
270、scale digesters,covered anaerobic lagoons,plug flow digesters,complete mix digesters,and advanced digesters),and can generate energy for on-farm heating,cooling,and electricity needs8 or can be injected into gas pipelines jointly with natural gas.However,as raised by IEA in February 2023 in the docu
271、ment“Driving Down Coal Mine Methane Emissions”,the coal situation is very different,and coal 7 https:/public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/more-bad-news-planet-greenhouse-gas-levels-hit-new-highs.8 Global Methane Initiative,“Agricultural Methane:Reducing Emissions,Advancing Recovery and Use Opportu
272、nities”.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWSource:IEA,“Methane emissions from fossil fuels in the Net Zero Scenario,2000-2030”(Last updated 26.10.2022)Methane Emissions Mtmine operations in 2022 represent more than 10%of total human emission
273、s,being equivalent to around 1.2 Gt CO2-eq1,or in other words,all the energy-related CO2 emissions from Central and South America.As underlined in the aforementioned document,unlike oil and gas,the coal sector has more financial and technical barriers to reducing methane emissions.Consequently,addre
274、ssing methane emissions from coal requires a strategy of transition to cleaner energies in the power sector,with mitigation strategies providing economic feasibility.Nevertheless,the lack of progress in the reduction of coal mine methane is highlighted by a lack of regulatory frameworks and unclear
275、ownership structures of coal mines.TABLE OF CONTENTS40Climate&Clean Air Coalition Mineral Methane Initiative(CCAC MMI)A voluntary partnership of governments,intergovernmental organizations,businesses,scientific institutions,and civil society organizations committed to improving air quality and prote
276、cting the climate through actions to reduce short-lived climate pollutants.The Coalition includes 77 state partners and 78 non-state partners(international NGOs and other NGOs).Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership(GGFR)A multi-donor trust fund established by the World Bank Group and composed of
277、governments,oil companies,and multilateral organizations committed to ending routine gas flaring at oil production sites across the world.The Partnership includes 20 governments,12 companies,and three multilateral organizations.Methane Emissions international coalitions that drive further actionGlob
278、al Methane Pledge President Biden and President Von der Leyen announced at the Major Economies Forum(MEF)meeting on 17 September 2021 that the USA and EU would invite countries to support the Global Methane Pledge to be launched at COP26 in November 2021 in Glasgow.Participants joining the Pledge ag
279、ree to take voluntary actions to contribute to a collective effort to reduce global methane emissions at least 30%from 2020 levels by 2030,which could eliminate over 0.2C of warming by 2050.This is a global,not a national reduction target.Participants also commit to moving towards using the highest
280、tier IPCC good practice inventory methodologies,as well as working to continuously improve the accuracy,transparency,consistency,comparability,and completeness of national GHG inventory reporting under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement,and to provide greater transparency in key sectors.With over 100 co
281、untries on board,representing nearly 50%of global anthropogenic methane emissions and over two-thirds of global GDP,the initiative is on the way to achieving the Pledge goal and preventing more than 8 Gigatonnes(Gt)of COe emissions from reaching the atmosphere annually by 2030.Global Methane Initiat
282、ive(GMI)An international public-private partnership focused on reducing barriers to the recovery and use of methane as a valuable energy source.GMI provides technical support to deploy methane-to-energy projects around the world that enable partner countries to launch methane recovery and use projec
283、ts.GMI focuses on three key sectors:oil and gas,biogas,and coal mines.IpiecaIpieca is the global oil and gas association dedicated to advancing environmental and social performance across the energy transition.It brings together members and stakeholders to lead in integrating sustainability by advan
284、cing climate action,environmental responsibility,and social performance across oil,gas,and renewables activities.Ipieca was founded at the request of UNEP in 1974.Through its non-lobby and collaborative approach,Ipieca remains the industrys principal channel of engagement with the UN.GAS WHITE PAPER
285、 LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS41Oil and Gas Climate Initiative(OGCI)A CEO-led organization bringing together 12 of the largest oil and gas companies worldwide to lead the industrys response to climate change.Oil and Gas Methane Partne
286、rship(OGMP)The Oil&Gas Methane Partnership 2.0(OGMP 2.0)is a multi-stakeholder initiative launched by UNEP and CCAC.OGMP 2.0 is the only comprehensive,measurement-based reporting framework for the oil and gas industry that improves the accuracy and transparency of methane emissions reporting in the
287、oil and gas sector.Over 80 companies with assets on five continents,representing a significant share of the worlds oil and gas production,have joined the Partnership.OGMP 2.0 members also include operators of natural gas transmission and distribution pipelines,gas storage capacity,and LNG terminals.
288、OGMP non-company members include UNEP,the Environmental Defense Fund(EDF),European Commission,CCAC and Clean Air Task Force(CATF).Methane Guiding PrinciplesThe Methane Guiding Principles drive efforts in five priority areas to reduce methane emissions from natural gas:1.Continually reduce methane em
289、issions;2.Advance strong performance across the gas value chain;3.Improve accuracy of methane emissions data;4.Advocate sound policy and regulations on methane emissions;5.Increase transparency and reporting.The initiative includes 27 signatory companies and 21 supporting organizations,including IEA
290、,EDF,UNEP,World Bank,and RMI(Rocky Mountain Institute),as well as academic institutions.This voluntary initiative strengthens the coalition between industrial members and other interest groups,focusing on priority areas to reduce methane emissions through the entire value chain,from production to th
291、e final consumer.IGU supports the Methane Guiding Principles workstream to assist with operationalizing the Global Methane Pledge(GMP).GMP has been signed by 63 IGU member countries.Methane Observatory in Latin America and the Caribbean(OLADE)In December 2022,the Ministers of Energy of OLADEs member
292、 countries instructed the organization to establish a Latin American regional office for the collection,monitoring,and supervision of information on methane emissions through which the different OLADE member countries are advised and supported in emission reduction measures.The Observatory will work
293、 within the framework of OLADE and will have as strategic partners ARPEL,CAF,and CATF,among others.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONT
294、ENTS42It is widely recognized that to avert the worst climate impacts the world needs an urgent reduction in CO2 emissions,which are the primary driver of global climate change.The shared responsibility between regions and countries is at the forefront of the international discussions.The decline in
295、 energy consumption per unit of GDP can help in the reduction of the rate of growth of emissions;energy efficiency is a good lever to keep emissions under control,while not limiting economic growth.However,it is worth mentioning that the rate of increase of CO2 emissions changed drastically in the d
296、ecade 2000-2010 as Chinas8 economy boomed based on coal as the main fuel.Today,global CO2 emissions appear to be going back to the pre-2000 rate.However,global CO2 emissions from coal,the larger emitter today,are expected to rise,not having reached the global peak yet with the current net-zero commi
297、tments of the main coal consuming countries.Furthermore,Indias emissions are in the same range as those of the EU,representing the principal growth in relative terms.However,a deep analysis of the EU and USA shows a declining emissions trend in the last 15 years,owing to better efficiencies in oil c
298、onsumption and coal substitution in power generation with cleaner energies.Source:Global Carbon Project.Global Carbon Budget 2022Source:Global Carbon Project.Global Carbon Budget 2022Annual Fossil CO2 Emissions and 2022 Projections Projected global emissions growth:+1.0%(+0.1%to+1.9%)Annual Fossil C
299、O2 Emissions in European Union(27)Projected global emissions growth:-0.8%(-2.8%to+1.2%)8 Global Carbon Budget 2022.https:/www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/22/presentation.htmCO2 Emissions International ContextGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIO
300、NS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS43Source:Our World in Data 2022https:/ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector.Global greenhouse gas emissions by sectorSource:Global Carbon Project.Global Carbon Budget 2022Annual CO2 Emissions GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMI
301、SSIONS OVERVIEWGlobal CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from global crises.GHG emissions intensity of GDP has steadily declined but not sufficient to offset economic growth.TABLE OF CONTENTS44World vs LAC GHG Emissions2019Estimated cargo transported(in billion tons-km)in selected LA
302、C countries.Fossil fuels account for 65%of the total primary energy supply in Latin America and the Caribbean.The share of natural gas is 29%and that of oil 31%,while coals share is only 5%(OLADE).As the region is an exporter of raw materials and agricultural products and because of long distances t
303、o export terminals,complex geography,and the lack of rail infrastructure,around 85%of gross tonne-km11 are transported by trucks in all major economies in the region(UNEP)12.They are fueled by diesel.The situation is no different in the rest of the region.Transport accounts for 37%of energy use and
304、40%of GHG emissions in the region(OLADE)13,being one of the priority sectors for decarbonization,and where outstanding opportunities arise for natural gas,both in road and maritime transport.Source:OLADE,2022,“Panorama energtico de Amrica Latina y Caribe”.Source:UNEP.Data:GCAM,2015.10 OLADE11 Gross
305、tonne-km is the product of total weight(including the weight of lading cars and locomotives)and the distance traveled by a train or a truck12 UNEP,https:/www.unep.org/es/resources/informe/carbono-cero-america-latina-y-el-caribe.13 OLADE,2022,“Panorama energtico de Amrica Latina y Caribe”,https:/www.
306、olade.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Panorama-ALC-13-12-2022.pdf.REST OF THE WORLD:49,758.23 Mt de CO2eLAC:4,117 Mt de CO2eThe Latin America and Caribbean region contributes approximately 8%of the worlds total GHG emissions annually10;however,less than half of these emissions are derived from energy
307、 use.On a global scale,the energy industry is the single main emitter.However,while energy accounts for 73%of global GHG emissions,in Latin America and the Caribbean this figure is much lower,representing just 43%of the regions total emissions.The main reasons for this are that the energy supply is
308、of lower carbon intensity,typically with a greater share of hydropower and natural gas rather than coal,and the bigger impacts of other activities such as agriculture,and deforestation,mainly of the Amazon rainforest.Latin America and the Caribbean Primary Energy and Emissions OverviewGAS WHITE PAPE
309、R LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS45In the power sector,hydropower accounts for 43%of power supply,which makes the regions energy supply relatively clean,but also more vulnerable to droughts and other climate phenomena like El Nio and La
310、 Nia.Other renewable energy accounts for 16%of the power supply.While some countries like Costa Rica,Uruguay,Brazil,Chile,or Argentina have made great progress,there is still a lot of renewable potential to be developed;and a lot of oil and coal to be substituted.The regions exceptional decarbonized
311、 power sector is described in the Power chapter of this white paper.Primary energy consumption per capita in Latin America and the Caribbean is lower than in other regions.It is worth pointing out that China has reached the same level of primary energy consumption per capita as Europe(0.11 Exajoules
312、 per capita).However,this is still half that of the USA and Canada(0.28 Exajoules per capita).Access to electricity in the region is relatively high,reaching almost 100%in the Southern Cone,Brazil,and Mexico,while there are still significant gaps in the Andean Region,Central America,and the Caribbea
313、n,because of the lack of quality infrastructure to reach sparse,rural,and poor populations.Access to clean cooking is also a challenge in these sub-regions,with its associated health and inequality issues.Latin America and the Caribbean is a resource rich region with a relatively low carbon-intense
314、energy system and with important economic and social development challenges to overcome.This has critical implications for climate action in the region,and natural gas has a key role to play,contributing to advances in the dual challenges of decarbonization and economic development.Primary Energy Co
315、nsumption ExajoulesData Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022Total Primary Energy Supply(World)Mtoe;%.2020Total Primary Energy Supply(LAC)Mtoe;%.2020Source:OLADESource:OLADEGAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS46La
316、tin America and the Caribbean Energy Balance 2021Source:OLADE,2022“Panorama energetico de America Latina y Caribe”GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN OVERVIEW:ENERGY AND GHG EMISSIONS OVERVIEWTABLE OF CONTENTS47TABLE OF CONTENTS48Gas Resources Development for Economic ProsperityKey D
317、rivers for Natural Gas Development and DecarbonizationSECTION 4TABLE OF CONTENTS49The natural gas resources of Latin America and the Caribbean have the potential to facilitate the regions socio-economic growth,boosting industry and facilitating energy access,while serving at the same time to decarbo
318、nize both national and overseas economies.Many nations are therefore seeking to enhance investment opportunities in order to monetize their resources,making them more bankable and attractive for investors.However,on the road to select a suitable gas reserve for monetization,there are many constraint
319、s to overcome,including technology,resource size and quality,location,capital costs,and fiscal regimes.The absence of infrastructure and gas markets can also derail investment momentum.Macroeconomic signals,country credibility,demand predictability,regulatory frameworks,and sentiment about the role
320、of natural gas in the energy transition are substantial boundary conditions that can hinder its development.Labeling natural gas projects in the whole gas value chain as“green”investments with high standards requirements(best in class)to minimize its environmental footprint is key to decarbonize the
321、 economies in time.IEF,in its recent Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook1,suggests that“Traditionally,decisions to invest in long-cycle upstream projects consisted of balancing economic considerations such as full-cycle breakeven prices and above-ground risk affecting developments.Now,investment
322、 decision-makers must also consider if demand will still be there over the lifetime of a specific project and the impact of government policy changes.”Monetizing natural gas resourcesUnderinvestment in the upstream sector can lead to recurrent price shocks across all commodities,exacerbating volatil
323、ity,undermining energy security,and fostering the use of other more polluting fuels.Upstream Natural Gas CAPEX Source:GECF.Global Gas Outlook 2050.Feb.231 IEF,Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook,Investment Needs Rise Amidst Market Uncertainty.February 2023.2 GECF,Global Gas Outlook 2050.January
324、2023.GAS WHITE PAPER LAC/KEY DRIVERS FOR NATURAL GAS DEVELOPMENT AND DECARBONIZATION:GAS RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT FOR ECONOMIC PROSPERITYAs a result,in 2022,energy security emerged as a strategic priority,with an acceleration of LNG midstream infrastructure development plans to 2030,and a stimulus for
325、new E&P projects.The Gas Exporting Countries Forum(GECF)2 highlights declining investment since 2014 as the major contributor to rocketing prices in 2021 and natural gas shortages,following the rapid post-pandemic economic recovery.TABLE OF CONTENTS50Gas ReservoirsProved reserves are defined as volu
326、mes of natural gas that analyses of geological and engineering data demonstrate to be recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions.The new technologies,additional successful exploratory wells,and increases in prices for natural gas can change previously uneconomic natural gas resourc
327、es into proved reserves.Following the conventional definition of reserves by the Society of Petroleum Engineers(SPE),Reserves covers the project status sub-classes“On production”,“Approved for development”,and“Justified for development”.In addition to Proved Reserves(1P),there are two other categori
328、es.Probable Reserves(2P)are those additional Reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less likely to be recovered than Proved Reserves but more certain to be recovered than Possible Reserves.In this context,when probabilistic methods are used,there should be at least a
329、 50%probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 2P or P1+P2 estimate.Possible Reserves(3P)are those additional Reserves that analysis of geoscience and engineering data suggest are less likely to be recoverable than Probable Reserves.When probabilistic methods are used,
330、there should be at least a 10%probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 3P or P1+P2+P3 estimate.Global production has been growing since the 2008 financial crisis,due to the progress of shale fracking in the USA.And IEA recognizes that natural gas has contributed to a
331、lmost one-third of overall energy-demand growth in the last decade.As of today,global Proven Natural Gas Reserves(P1)could be estimated at around 7,500 tcf4.Latin America and the Caribbean represents approximately 4.3%of this.However,a consideration of only P1 reserves could lead to an underestimati
332、on of potential for commercial gas reserves in the region;this figure could increase significantly once the unconventional gas of Argentina is developed,moving the status of its reservoirs from P2 and P3 to P1.As highlighted by the US Energy Information Administration(EIA),Argentina is home to the w
333、orlds second largest shale gas reserves,the Vaca Muerta play,located in the Neuquen Basin,with an estimated 308 Tcf5 of dry,wet,and associated shale gas resources.A natural gas reservoir is composed of porous and permeable rocks that can hold significant amounts of natural gas confined by impermeable rock or water barriers.There is a distinction between conventional and non-conventional reserves3: