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1、June 2023Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 8551602014-2016=20222021FAO Food Price IndexDNOSAJJMAMFJ BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome,2023Food OutlookRequired citation:FAO.2023.Food Outlook Bian
2、nual report on global food markets.Food Outlook,June 2023.Rome.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cc3020enThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the Unite
3、d Nations(FAO)concerning the legal or development status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers,whether or not these have been patented,does not imply tha
4、t these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.ISSN 0251-1959 printISSN1560-8182 onlineISBN 978-9
5、2-5-137230-2 FAO,2023Some rights reserved.This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0IGO licence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode).Under the terms of this licence,this work may be copied,redistributed
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13、;iStockAgainst the backdrop of production disruptions in 2022/23 and strong Asian demand,international rice prices have reached their highest level since October 2011.However,barring major setbacks,global production could recover in 2023/24,which,coupled with an anticipated stabilization in use,coul
14、d boost world rice stocks.RICEWith record production expected this year,global coarse grain supplies are forecast to recover in 2023/24 following a tight season in 2022/23.Higher supplies and lower prices are predicted to support an increase in utilization and trade.COARSE GRAINSFollowing the downwa
15、rd revision to the 2022/23 production forecast in several key growing countries,the expected tighter global sugar supplies led to sharp increases in world sugar prices in recent months.Global trade in sugar is predicted to contract due to lower export availabilities and higher import costs.SUGARWith
16、 expectations of improved global outputs exceeding utilization,FAOs forecasts for 2022/23 point to moderate stock replenishments for oilseeds and derived products.Preliminary projections for the 2023/24 season suggest further production growth across the oilcrops complex.OILCROPSFAOs latest forecast
17、 points to a marginal increase in global meat production in 2023,led by poultry meat,despite challenges to production stemming from widespread animal diseases and high production costs.Meanwhile,a recovery in meat import demand in Asia is likely to foster an overall slight growth in global meat trad
18、e.MEATGlobal wheat production,stocks and trade are all forecast to fall in 2023/24 from their 2022/23 record high levels.Nevertheless,with significant carryover stocks from last season and nearly stagnant total utilization,world wheat supplies are set to remain ample.WHEATProduction growth is expect
19、ed to slow in 2023,with growth in aquaculture partly offset by declining catches in capture fisheries.Inflation and economic challenges are muting demand growth.Prices for a number of products are reaching new highs,although a slowing global economy will likely increase price sensitivity.FISHERIESFA
20、Os latest forecast points to a second consecutive year of slow growth in world milk production in 2023,primarily due to extreme weather events,lower producer margins and labour shortages.Following a slump last year,a slight recovery in global dairy trade is expected,despite likely import contraction
21、s in some leading importing countries.DAIRYFAOs latest forecasts point to increases in production and higher closing stocks across several basic foodstuffs.However,global food production systems remain vulnerable to shocks stemming from extreme weather events,geopolitical tensions,policy changes and
22、 developments in other markets,potentially tipping the delicate demand-supply balances and impacting prices and world food security.HIGHLIGHTSFood inflation in net food importing developing countries(NFIDCs):characterizing the increase and the effect of currency movements Since the beginning of 2021
23、,the consumer price index(CPI),the most widely used measure of inflation,has increased to levels not seen in decades.High and persistent inflation has a number of macroeconomic consequences that can reduce long-term prosperity.Importantly,rising food prices can lead to social unrest and slow the eff
24、orts to fight poverty and food insecurity.This special feature examines recent changes in the food component of the CPI for the net food importing developing countries,and the extent to which changes in international cereal prices were transmitted to these countries,considering movements in the exch
25、ange rates.SPECIAL FEATUREvFutures marketsp14-2016=20222021DNOSAJJMAMFJFAO Food Price Index p1481-9 MARKET SUMMARIES10-61Wheat 11Coarse grains 17Rice 24Oilcrops,oils and meals 30Sugar 38Meat and meat products 43Milk and milk products 50Fish and fishery products 56 MA
26、RKET ASSESSMENTS62-71Food inflation in net food importing developing countries:characterizing the increase and the effect of currency movements 63 SPECIAL FEATURE72-95Grains 73Rice 81Meat 88Dairy 91 MAJOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS96-133 STATISTICAL TABLES134-147Futures markets 135Ocean freight rates 138Fo
27、od import bills 141The FAO price indices 144 MARKET INDICATORSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviOcean Freightsp138Global food import billp141ShutterstockiStockFAOFOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023viACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Markets and Trade Division of the Economic and Social Development S
28、tream.This report was prepared under the overall guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen,Director and Upali W.Galketi Aratchilage,Senior Economist.Market assessments were written by a team of economists,whose names appear under their respective market summary contributions.A contribution by the Internati
29、onal Grains Council on ocean freight rates for the market indicators section is also gratefully acknowledged.The report benefited from research support from many staff,namely,David Bedford,Harout Dekermendjian,Emanuele Marocco,Grace Karumathy,Emanuele Mazzini,Marco Milo,Fabio Palmeri,Fetty Prihastin
30、i and the Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics Team and GLOBEFISH.Special thanks go to David Bedford for preparing the charts and statistical tables and to Valentina Banti for her administrative support.Additionally,the team is grateful to Ettore Vecchione for the desktop publishing and Ruth Raymond
31、 for her valuable editorial assistance.MARKETSUMMARIESMarket summaries1FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Early prospects point to a likely 1.0-percent increase in global cereal production in 2023 to reach 2 813 million tonnes(including rice in milled equivalent).Among the major cereals,the bulk of the increase r
32、ests on a foreseen rise in maize production,with increases also anticipated for rice and sorghum.Partially offsetting these increases,wheat and barley outputs are predicted to fall below their 2022 levels.FAOs first forecast puts world cereal utilization in 2023/24 at around 2 803 million tonnes,up
33、0.9 percent from the estimated 2022/23 level;the increase stems almost entirely from a predicted growth in utilization of coarse grains.Higher feed use,largely of maize,is the dominant driver behind the expected increase,followed by growth in food consumption,especially of wheat and rice.Industrial
34、use is foreseen to rise only marginally with expanded use anticipated for maize,rice,and barley.Based on FAOs initial forecasts for global cereal production in 2023 and utilization in 2023/24,global cereal stocks could rise by 1.7 percent above their opening levels,reaching a record 873 million tonn
35、es.Among the major cereals,the increase in maize inventories is expected to be the largest,followed by those of rice and barley.By contrast,stocks of wheat and sorghum will likely fall below their opening levels.With the current forecasts for utilization and stocks,the world cereal stocks-to-use rat
36、io would decline fractionally,from 30.6 percent in 2022/23 to 30.4 percent in 2023/24.Pegged at 472 million tonnes,world trade in cereals is forecast to remain near the 2022/23 level.An expected decline in global wheat trade is foreseen to offset predicted increases in the world trade of coarse grai
37、ns and rice.In May 2023,the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 129.7 points,down 43.9 points(25.3 percent)from last years record value,reflecting sharp declines in the world prices of wheat and coarse grains;rice prices,however,have increased above their previous year values.Although the FAO Cereal Pri
38、ce Index dropped below its May 2022 record level,in May 2023 it was still 8.8 points(7.1 percent)above its last five-year average value for the same month.CEREALSCEREAL GRAIN PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1 Rice in milled equivalent.2 Trade refers to exports based on a July/June marketing season
39、for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December basis for rice.3 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus opening stocks)and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries marketing years.4 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries marketing years.WORLD CEREAL MARK
40、ET AT A GLANCE2021/222022/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction2 813.42 786.52 813.11.0Trade1 482.8 471.6 471.60.0Total utilization2 801.72 777.62 803.80.9Food1 174.31 185.01 193.20.7Feed1 054.31 029.31 044.71.5Other uses 573.0 563.4 565.90.4Ending s
41、tocks2 856.8 858.2 873.01.7SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)148.5 148.6 148.3-0.2LIFDC(kg/yr)151.6 151.5 150.8-0.5World stocks-to-use ratio(%)30.830.630.4Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)19.220.520.9 FAO CEREAL PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202120222023
42、Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%131 155 075090002700300023/2421/2219/2017/1815/1613/14million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Market summaries2FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Following a season of record-high world prod
43、uction,stocks and trade in 2022/23,global wheat markets are expected to tighten slightly in 2023/24 but should remain adequately supplied.Total wheat output in 2023 is pegged at 777 million tonnes,representing a 3.0 percent fall from the all-time high reached in 2022.The bulk of the foreseen decline
44、 is expected to occur in the Russian Federation and Australia,following record-high outputs in both countries in 2022,while smaller declines are anticipated in several other leading producers,including Ukraine and Kazakhstan.Global total wheat utilization in 2023/24 is predicted to remain nearly sta
45、ble at 780 million tonnes,up just 0.1 percent from 2022/23 and marginally below the 10-year trend.A 0.7 percent rise in the food consumption of wheat is foreseen,balancing expected reductions of 1.3 percent in feed utilization and 1.4 percent in other uses of wheat.Based on preliminary forecasts for
46、 2023 production and 2023/24 utilization,world wheat stocks are set to fall by 0.7 percent from their record opening levels to 308 million tonnes by the close of the seasons in 2024.Most of the expected drawdown will be concentrated in the Russian Federation,with smaller drops foreseen in the United
47、 States of America(United States)and Kazakhstan.By contrast,stocks in China and India are expected to increase,partly offsetting the declines.World trade in wheat(including wheat flour in wheat equivalent)in 2023/24(July/June)will likely fall by 3.0 percent to 194 million tonnes.This anticipated dec
48、line is underpinned by smaller wheat purchases by China and the European Union,where imports are boosted to high levels in 2022/23 due to large flows from Ukraine.On the export side,expected declines in sales by Australia and Ukraine are foreseen to outweigh anticipated increases in shipments from A
49、rgentina and the European Union.International wheat export prices have generally faced downward pressure since mid-2022,as supply prospects improved,uncertainty regarding Ukraines exports eased with the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,and importers diversified their sources.Heading
50、into 2023/24 with ample anticipated global supplies,world wheat prices will start the 2023/24 season at lower levels,with prices in May down 35 percent from May 2022 but 4 percent above their five-year average value for the same month.WHEATContact:Erin Collier Jonathan Pound(Production)WHEAT PRODUCT
51、ION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKSWORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Ma
52、jor exporters include Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Kazakhstan,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.2021/222022/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProdu
53、ction 777.7 800.9 776.7-3.0Trade1 195.9 199.6 193.7-3.0Total utilization 774.6 779.7 780.30.1Food 524.0 530.7 535.00.8Feed 147.7 151.2 153.01.2Other uses 89.9 92.7 91.7-1.1Ending stocks2 295.1 310.7 308.5-0.7SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)67.1 67.1 67.0-0.1LIFDC(k
54、g/yr)39.2 38.8 38.7-0.3World stocks-to-use ratio(%)37.839.838.9Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)16.019.117.7 FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%132 165 138-32%030035060065070075080085023/2421/2219/2017/1815/1613/1
55、4million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Market summaries3FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023World production of coarse grains in 2023 is forecast to rise by 3.0 percent from the 2022 reduced level,reaching 1 513 million tonnes,with most of the increase restin
56、g on an anticipated higher production of maize and a foreseen smaller increase for sorghum.Much of the expected growth is concentrated in the United States of America,Brazil and the European Union.World trade in coarse grains in 2023/24 is predicted to reach 221 million tonnes,up 1.4 percent from th
57、e estimated level for 2022/23,driven by expectations of a growth in sorghum trade and a smaller rise in maize trade.The increase stems from anticipated larger imports of all major coarse grains by China(mainland)and an expected rebound in maize imports by several countries,mostly in Asia,from their
58、reduced purchases last season.On the export side,expected rebounds in sales by the United States of America(United States)of both sorghum and maize are seen as predominantly boosting exports,while a foreseen smaller increase in maize shipments from Brazil should also contribute to expanding trade gl
59、obally.Higher supplies and lower prices are expected to support a 1.7 percent expansion in total utilization of coarse grains in 2023/24,led by a robust recovery in the feed use component,along with growth in industrial use and food consumption.Strong feed demand,largely for maize,in Brazil,China(ma
60、inland)and the United States of America(United States)are the main drivers behind the 2.6 percent forecast increase in total feed use of coarse grains,while higher use of maize in Brazil and the United States for ethanol is behind the 1.0 percent predicted rise in global industrial use.The forecast
61、for global inventories of coarse grains by the close of seasons in 2024 is pegged at 366 million tonnes,up 3.9 percent from 2022/23.An expected rise in maize inventories,largely in the United States,makes up the majority of the forecast increase,with a smaller increase anticipated for barley stocks.
62、As a sign of generally improved supply prospects in 2023/24,the ratio of major exporters stock-to-disappearance(defined as domestic consumption plus exports)is predicted to increase from 13.0 percent in 2023/23 to 14.5 percent in 2023/24.COARSE GRAINSContact:Erin Collier Jonathan Pound(Production)CO
63、ARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as productionn plus opening stocks)and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries marketing3 Major exporters include Arg
64、entina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Kazakhstan,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the United States of America.4 Derived from International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.WORLD COARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE2021/222022/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%WORLD BAL
65、ANCEProduction1 509.71 468.81 513.03.0Trade1 230.9 218.4 221.41.4Total utilization1 504.41 478.21 503.31.7Food 224.4 227.8 229.50.8Feed 878.2 855.3 875.22.3Other uses 401.7 395.1 398.60.9Ending stocks2 364.8 352.6 366.23.9SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)28.4 28.6 2
66、8.5-0.3LIFDC(kg/yr)60.9 61.5 61.0-0.8World stocks-to-use ratio(%)24.723.523.6Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)13.013.014.4 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%145 169 154-0.203504000023/
67、2421/2219/2017/1815/1613/14million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Market summaries4FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Reflecting the positive incentives provided by generally higher producer prices,easing fertilizer costs and continuing government assistance
68、measures,global rice production is forecast to recover by 1.3 percent in 2023/24 to 523.5 million tonnes(milled basis).With the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean and Oceania,all regions are predicted to harvest more than they did in 2022/23,although,amid heightened weather uncertainties,o
69、utput in Asia could remain below previous records.Following three years of successive expansion,tighter exportable availabilities and higher overall import costs are predicted to depress international trade in rice by 4.3 percent in 2023 to 53.6 million tonnes.All regions,other than Latin America an
70、d the Caribbean,are anticipated to reduce their levels of purchases from 2022,although efforts to contain inflationary pressure could keep imports,particularly by Asia,at relatively abundant levels.On the export side,India is forecast to register the largest absolute export reduction.A sizeable expo
71、rt contraction is also envisaged for Pakistan,with Argentina,Brazil,the Russian Federation and the United States of America expected to export less as well.Continued reductions in the use of rice for animal feed could contrast with another expansion in food use in 2023/24,resulting in total rice uti
72、lization stabilizing around 520.1 million tonnes.As this level would fall short of anticipated production during the season,world rice stocks at the close of 2023/24 marketing seasons could rise 1.8 percent above their opening level to 198.3 million tonnes.Exporting countries are envisaged to drive
73、this expansion,although importers could also end with more on reserve.After rising during much of 2022,international rice prices have remained on an upward trajectory in 2023,underpinned by strong demand from Asian buyers and production disruptions registered in 2022/23 in some suppliers.This has be
74、en reflected by the FAO All Rice Price Index,which,at a value of 127.8 points in May 2023,stood at its highest level since October 2011.RICEContact:Shirley MustafaRICE PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKSWORLD RICE MARKET AT A GLANCE1 Calendar year exports(second year shown).2 May not equal the differe
75、nce between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include India,Pakistan,Thailand,the United States of America and Viet Nam.520043045548050553023/2422/2320/2118/1916/1714/15millio
76、n tonnes,milled eq.million tonnes,milled eq.fcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)2021/222022/23 fcast2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes,milled equivalent%WORLD BALANCEProduction526.0516.9523.51.3Trade156.053.656.65.5Total utilization522.7519.8520.10.1F
77、ood419.1422.3424.80.6Ending stocks2197.0194.8198.31.8SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)53.053.052.8-0.3LIFDC(kg/yr)51.551.151.10.1World stocks-to-use ratio(%)37.937.537.8Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)28.729.530.6FAO RICE PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)2
78、02120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%.7Market summaries5FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Global oilseed production is forecast to rebound in 2022/23,mainly driven by expected higher outputs of soybean and rapeseed,more than offsetting reduced production levels foreseen for sunflow
79、er seed and other oilseeds.Despite prospects of a significantly lower soybean crop in Argentina due to poor weather conditions,global soybean production is expected to recover owing to a bumper harvest in Brazil.World rapeseed production is estimated to reach a record high,linked to higher outputs a
80、cross Australia,Canada and the European Union.By contrast,global sunflower seed production could decline,primarily due to a sharply lower crop in Ukraine amid the war.World meals/cakes outputs are forecast to increase,while consumption growth could remain subdued,reflecting protracted lacklustre dem
81、and from the livestock sector,primarily in China.With global oilmeal production forecast to exceed utilization,the carry-over stocks are set to recover from the previous season.Similarly,world oils/fats production is seen expanding,facilitated by a steady increase in global palm oil output.The globa
82、l utilization of vegetable oils is expected to grow after stagnating in the past two consecutive seasons,broadly tied to the expectations of rising food consumption,mainly in Asia,and higher uptakes from the biodiesel industry for both discretionary and obligatory blendings.Global oils/fats carry-ov
83、er inventories are expected to accumulate moderately,as global production is forecast to surpass consumption by a small margin.International trade is predicted to rebound for both oilmeals and vegetable oils due to revived import demand that coincides with improved global supplies.As for the upcomin
84、g 2023/24 season,highly preliminary forecasts indicate a continued output increase across the oilcrops complex.As international prices for oilseeds linger above recent average levels,total planted areas will likely continue to expand,while yields could also increase,barring major weather issues.Assu
85、ming a continuation of modest growth in global utilization,anticipated world supplies should be sufficient to satisfy the projected demand for vegetable oils and oilmeals,and further restocking could thus be expected for these products.OILCROPSContact:Di YangFAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES F
86、OR OILSEEDS,VEGETABLE OILS AND MEALS/CAKES(2014-2016=100)WORLD OILCROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCE2020/212021/22 estim.2022/23 fcastChange:2022/23 over 2021/22million tonnes%TOTAL OILCROPSProduction624.1617.3638.43.4OILS AND FATSProduction 243.2 246.7 253.42.7Supply 278.3 278.9 285.92.5Utilizatio
87、n 246.9 245.0 252.43.0Trade 133.6 126.8 137.28.2Global stocks-to-use ratio(%)13.0 13.3 13.5Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(%)9.7 10.2 9.8MEALS AND CAKESProduction 161.4 158.5 163.93.4Supply 191.9 187.3 189.31.1Utilization 160.3 160.7 162.10.9Trade 103.1 101.4 106.14.7Global stocks-to-u
88、se ratio(%)18.0 15.8 16.0Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(%)10.0 9.2 8.3FAO PRICE INDICES(Jan-Dec)(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%Oilseeds 139 158 134-21.7Meals/cakes 116 133 133-3.0Vegetable oils 165 188 131-40.6Note:Kindly refer to footnote 1 o
89、n page 30 and to table 2 on page 33 for further explanations regarding definitions and coverage.60020232022202015Meals/cakesVegetable oilsOilseedsMarket summaries6FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023FAOs forecast for world sugar production in 2022/23(October/September)is pegged at
90、177.5 million tonnes,up 1.9 million tonnes,or 1.1 percent,from the 2021/22 outturn.The foreseen increase is largely attributed to prospects of a significant recovery in production in Brazil,the worlds largest sugar producer and exporter.However,this forecast is below FAOs preliminary expectations du
91、e to lower-than-earlier-anticipated outputs in China,the European Union,India,Mexico and Thailand.Global sugar consumption is forecast to continue increasing for a third successive season in 2022/23,up 1.6 million tonnes,or 0.9 percent,from the previous season.Overall,the year-on-year growth is expe
92、cted to mostly originate in Africa and Asia,driven by population and income growth.However,the increase in world sugar consumption forecast was limited by the projected deceleration in global economic growth in 2023 and high world sugar prices.The anticipated growth in world sugar intake,combined wi
93、th the downward revision to the global production forecast,should reduce the world sugar production surplus to 1.4 million tonnes from the 4.9 million tonnes previously expected.The forecast for the world sugar trade in 2022/23 stands at 60.7 million tonnes,which corresponds to a 1 percent drop from
94、 the estimated volume for 2021/22.The contraction is the result of an anticipated reduction in exportable supplies in the European Union,India and Mexico,more than offsetting foreseen larger shipments from Brazil.On the import side,slower global economic growth,coupled with high world sugar prices,i
95、s anticipated to curb global demand for sugar.In particular,in China,the largest international sugar buyer,imports are forecast to decline for the second consecutive season amid high world sugar prices and adequate domestic availabilities.By contrast,sugar imports by the European Union are set to in
96、crease sharply from last year on the back of high domestic prices and lower production.International sugar prices have overall increased since November 2022,and in May 2023 they were at their highest level since October 2011.The price increases were mainly the result of tightening global supplies.Fu
97、rther upward pressure on prices was exerted by the slow start of the 2023 harvest in Brazil,caused by heavy rains.In addition,the Brazilian real has generally appreciated against the United States dollar since December 2022,affecting exports and contributing to higher world sugar prices.SUGARContact
98、:Elmamoun AmroukFabio PalmeriINTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRICES*WORLD SUGAR MARKET AT A GLANCE51015202530DNOSAJJMAMFJ202202023US cents per lb.*as measured by the International Sugar Agreement(ISA)2020/212021/22 estim.2022/23 fcastChange:2022/23 over 2021/22milliontonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction169
99、.1175.6177.51.11Trade*60.861.360.7-1.00Total utilization170.0174.5176.10.93Ending stocks111.8112.6113.81.03SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)21.722.122.10.09LIFDC(kg/yr)12.813.012.9-0.61World stocks-to-use ratio(%)65.764.564.60.10ISA DAILY PRICE AVERAGE(US cents/lb)2
100、02120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%17.6718.4921.8315.87*Trade figures refer to exportsMarket summaries7FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023World total meat production in 2023 is forecast to increase marginally to 364 million tonnes(carcass weight equivalent),principally driven by an anticipat
101、ed increase in global poultry meat production,which is forecast to expand the most by volume,facilitated by increased demand from the food services sector and its general appeal as a relatively affordable meat type,despite widespread outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and eleva
102、ted feed prices.Global ovine meat production is also expected to increase in Asia and Oceania.By contrast,global pig meat production is expected to drop slightly,principally underpinned by a steep drop in output in Europe due to the continued impact of the African swine fever virus,weaker producer m
103、argins and somewhat lower domestic demand.Global bovine meat production is also forecast to fall marginally on lower cattle inventories,high feed costs,forage shortages and lower carcass weight in several leading producing regions,despite some increases elsewhere.World trade in meat and meat product
104、s is forecast to reach 42 million tonnes(carcass weight equivalent)in 2023,only slightly above the 2022 level.This slight growth is underpinned by expectations of import expansions together with increased food services sales,particularly in China,following the end of the countrys restrictions relate
105、d to the COVID-19 pandemic.However,rising availabilities from domestic sources and lower consumer purchasing power amid high food prices and economic downturns could lead to import declines in most meat importing countries,partially offsetting the foreseen increases.Much of the expected increased de
106、mand is likely to be supplied by Brazil and Australia,facilitated by the high availability of exportable supplies,disease-free status and competitive prices.Since reaching an all-time high in June 2022,international meat prices have trended downward in the second half of last year,reflecting increas
107、ed exportable availabilities in some leading exporting countries amid lower import demand for spot supplies.However,the FAO Meat Price Index rebounded from February 2023,mainly driven by pig and bovine meat prices amid supply limitations and,more recently,rising poultry meat prices due to high deman
108、d.MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi AratchilageEmanuele MaroccoFAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE20212022 estim.2023 fcastChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes(carcass weight equivalent)%WORLD BALANCEProduction 356.9 362.6 363.90.4Bovine meat 74.9 7
109、6.3 76.1-0.2Poultry meat 138.2 140.8 142.71.3Pigmeat 120.9 122.3 121.7-0.5Ovine meat 16.4 16.7 16.81.0Trade 42.0 41.8 42.10.6Bovine meat 12.1 12.6 12.81.2Poultry meat 15.8 16.3 16.41.0Pigmeat 12.7 11.5 11.4-1.0Ovine meat 1.1 1.1 1.15.2SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/y
110、ear)45.0 45.245.0-0.4Trade-share of prod.(%)11.8 11.511.60.2FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%108 119 115-2.8900DNOSAJJMAMFJ202320222021Source:FAO.Market summaries8FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023MILK AND MILK PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi A
111、ratchilage Harout DekermendjianFAO INTERNATIONAL DAIRY PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD DAIRY MARKET AT A GLANCE20212022 estim.2023 fcastChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes(milk equivalent)%WORLD BALANCETotal milk production 931.1 935.9 944.00.9Total trade 88.6 84.6 85.00.5SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
112、Per caput food consumption:World(kg/year)117.7 117.4 117.40.0Trade-share of prod.(%)9.5 9.0 9.0-0.4FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%119 142 126-11.60DNOSAJJMAMFJ202120222023Source:FAO.World milk production in 2023 is forecast to
113、reach 944 million tonnes,an increase of 0.9 percent from 2022.If confirmed,this would constitute a second consecutive year of slow growth,as foreseen significant year-on-year volume reductions in milk output in South America,Africa,Europe and Oceania are likely to counter the limited expansions expe
114、cted in Asia,North America and Central America and the Caribbean.Rising milk yields and cattle numbers in India and Pakistan,together with high output in large-scale dairy farms in China,are likely to drive Asias milk output expansion.Similarly,increasing yields and dairy cow numbers could lift milk
115、 output in North America,despite lower milk producer margins and a potential increase in cattle slaughter amid attractive premiums for slaughter-ready cows.Mexico will likely drive the milk output expansion in Central America and the Caribbean,where improved management systems and technology continu
116、e to drive production growth.Much of the output decline anticipated in 2023 is attributable to lower producer margins,the potential impact of extreme weather events and other challenging production conditions,especially labour shortages.World total trade in dairy products is forecast at 85 million t
117、onnes(in milk equivalents)in 2023,nearly stagnant at the last years level,as higher import demand in Central America,North Africa,the Middle East and South East Asia is likely to be counterbalanced by likely import downturns in China,the European Union and Malaysia,among others.Rising supplies from
118、national sources and high stocks,especially of whole milk powder,underpin much of the anticipated import contraction in China.In many developing countries,challenging economic conditions,currency depreciations and the limited availability of foreign exchange could constrain import purchases.These co
119、ntractions are expected to be partially offset by likely higher imports by several countries,especially Algeria,Mexico,Australia and Indonesia,driven by growing demand from the food processing industry,which exceeds national supplies.The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 118.7 in May,down 21 percent fr
120、om June 2022,when it reached its highest value in eight years.The decline principally reflects lacklustre global import demand,especially for spot supplies,notwithstanding generally tight supplies from leading global exporters.Market summaries9FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023The global fisheries and aquacultur
121、e sector is expected to face a muted demand outlook across most major commodity groups in 2023.Consumer spending power in major markets has been eroded considerably in the past year as a result of inflation,while economic uncertainties have weakened growth.Global production of aquatic animals increa
122、sed by an estimated 1.2 percent in 2022 and is expected to grow by an additional 0.6 percent in 2023 as lower catches are offset by increased aquaculture production.Of the major wild-caught species,reduced tuna catches have caused raw material prices to rise.Prices for cephalopods,which had been low
123、,have recently surged,with supplies of octopus and squid expected to tighten in 2023.Reduced groundfish quotas have pushed prices up this year.Landings of small pelagic species for human consumption are expected to decrease,with reduced quotas for mackerel and herring.There is a growing expectation
124、among meteorologists that an El Nio climatic phenomenon will start in August.Such an event could directly impact a number of key stocks,mainly in South America,including the Peruvian anchoveta,the main source of fishmeal and fish oil.Catches of anchoveta were poor in 2022 and,with the majority of th
125、e 2023 anchoveta quota yet to be set,there is considerable uncertainty in the market.Fish oil,in particular,is in very tight supply,with prices now more than double the levels seen in June 2022.Any further reduction in the supply of fishmeal and fish oil would lead to an extremely tight market,placi
126、ng additional pressure on aquaculture input prices.In the second half of 2023,a strong positive outlook is predicted for the main aquaculture species.As of this writing,shrimp prices are low,due to increased farmed shrimp production led by enormous growth in Ecuadorian production over the past coupl
127、e of years.Pangasius is growing ever more popular as one of the most affordable fish on the market,with harvests increasing greatly in 2022.In the farmed Atlantic salmon sector,prices are surging again due to robust demand and limits on the rate of global supply expansion.FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTSCo
128、ntact:William GriffinAudun LemStefania VannucciniFAO FISH PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD FISH MARKET AT A GLANCESource of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index:EUMOFA,INFOFISH,INFOPESCA,INFOYU,Statistics Norway20212022 estim.2023 fcastChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes(live weight)%WORLD BALANC
129、EProduction 182.1 184.4 185.50.6 Capture fisheries 91.2 91.0 89.5-1.6 Aquaculture 90.9 93.4 96.02.8Trade value (exports USD billion)176.6 190.2 192.41.2Trade volume(live weight)66.8 68.0 68.20.3Total utilization 182.1 184.4 185.50.6 Food 161.2 164.2 166.11.2 Feed 16.9 16.1 15.3-5.0 Other uses 4.0 4.
130、0 4.00.0SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:Food fish(kg/yr)20.4 20.6 20.60.3 From capture fisheries(kg/year)9.4 9.4 9.2-1.8 From aquaculture(kg/year)11.5 11.7 11.91.9FAO FISH PRICE INDEX (2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%101.7 120.8 128.14.5
131、507090020222020200006200420022000FAO total fish price indexCapture totalAquaculture totalSource of the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index:EUMOFA,INFOFISH,INFOPESCA,INFOYU,Statistics Norway*Jan-Apr2022 over Jan-Apr 2021,in percentMARKET ASSESSMENTSMARKET ASSESSMENT
132、S11FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023Figure 1.IGC Wheat Price IndexFigure 2.CBOT wheat futuresfor SeptemberWHEATPRICESInternational prices down from near-record highs last yearInternational wheat prices have been generally coming down since surging to a near-record level in May 2022,following the disruptions to
133、 Ukraines exports created by the war.The implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2022,which allows Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports,helped to reduce uncertainty and improve supply prospects in global markets.Since the start of 2023,ample supplies and strong competiti
134、on among exporters,including especially robust sales by the Russian Federation and Australia,have underpinned the continued downward trend in world wheat prices,which in May 2023 were 35 percent below their values in May 2022.Although wheat prices remain elevated at 4 percent above their five-year a
135、verage value in May 2023 the ample global supply forecast in 2023/24 portends a continued softer tone in markets.Similarly,wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT)for nearby delivery have been falling since mid-2022,reaching their lowest level in May 2023 since December 2020,reflecting the
136、overall softer tone in the 0390450202320200920072014-2016=0400500MAMFJDNOSUSD per tonne2023 values2022 valuesWHEATiStockMarket assessments12FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Table 1.World wheat market at a glanceTable 2.Wheat production:leading producers*20212022 estim
137、.2023fcastChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes%China(Mainland)136.9137.7138.50.6European Union138.1134.1138.83.5India109.6107.7110.02.1Russian Federation76.1102.782.8-19.3United States of America44.844.945.20.6Australia36.239.228.2-28.1Canada22.433.834.31.5Pakistan27.526.426.81.6Ukraine32.220.217.0-15
138、.8Trkiye17.719.818.8-5.1United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland14.015.514.4-7.6Kazakhstan11.816.414.1-14.0Iran(Islamic Rep Of)10.113.013.00.0Others100.489.494.96.1World777.7800.9776.7-3.0*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2020-2022).1 Trade refers
139、 to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Ka
140、zakhstan,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.market due to ample supplies,fewer trade disruptions and strong competition among exporters.The September CBOT soft red winter futures has also been on a general do
141、wnward trend,averaging United States dollar 234 per tonne in May,down 16 percent from the start of this year and 45 percent lower than in May 2022.More detailed analysis of the futures markets can be found in the Market Indicators section of this report.PRODUCTIONProduction to decline in 2023 from t
142、he 2022 record levelAt 777 million tonnes,FAO forecasts a 3.0 percent year-on-year decline in global wheat production in 2023 from the all-time high in 2022,but still marking the third largest output on record.In North America,similar to the previous year,a sizeable proportion of the winter wheat ar
143、ea in the United States has suffered from persistent drought.Despite an upturn in wheat sowings,reinforced by robust crop prices,extensive dryness has reduced yield expectations,and total production is forecast at 45.2 million tonnes,on par with the 2022 reduced output.In Canada,there are some conce
144、rns that dryness will develop in the western areas where the bulk of the wheat crop is grown.Official production forecasts currently place the 2023 wheat output 12 percent higher than the past five-year average at 34.3 million tonnes,largely resting on an expected 7-percent expansion in spring sowin
145、gs on account of remunerative crop prices.In Europe,weather conditions across most of the European Union have been generally beneficial for winter wheat crops,except in Spain and Portugal,where long-term rainfall deficits and high temperatures have curbed yield prospects.Reflecting the beneficial we
146、ather conditions across the bulk of the European Union,the blocs total wheat production in 2023 is forecast to increase by 4 percent to 138.8 million tonnes.In the Russian Federation,total wheat production is expected to decline to about 83 million tonnes in 2023,following the 2022 all-time high,ref
147、lecting a contraction in wheat planted area due to excessive wet conditions in late 2022 and softer crop prices.In Ukraine,the effects of the war have caused a significant reduction in wheat plantings,and,despite the positive impact of conducive weather,production in 2023 is foreseen to be well belo
148、w the five-year average.In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland(United Kingdom),following the high level of 2022,wheat production is anticipated to fall moderately to 14.4 million tonnes in 2023,as an expected drop in yields is seen to offset an expansion in plantings.2021/222022
149、/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction 777.7 800.9 776.7-3.0Trade1 195.9 199.6 193.7-3.0Total utilization 774.6 779.7 780.30.1Food 524.0 530.7 535.00.8Feed 147.7 151.2 153.01.2Other uses 89.9 92.7 91.7-1.1Ending stocks2 295.1 310.7 308.5-0.7SUPPLY AN
150、D DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)67.1 67.1 67.0-0.1LIFDC(kg/yr)39.2 38.8 38.7-0.3World stocks-to-use ratio(%)37.839.838.9Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)16.019.117.7 FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 20
151、22%132 165 138-32%13FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2022In Asia,wheat prospects in India have been buoyed by record high plantings,although untimely rains and heatwaves have limited the production of grains and raised concerns about the quality of the crop.Production is pegged at 110 million tonnes in 2023,about
152、7 million tonnes above the five-year average.In Pakistan,despite earlier concerns around constrained access to inputs and land due to floods in 2022,the planted area remained close to the near-average level in 2022.Weather conditions have also been mostly favourable,lifting yield prospects.Consequen
153、tly,wheat production in 2023 is pegged at an above-average level of 26.8 million tonnes.In China(mainland),despite elevated inputs costs,prospects of favourable financial returns for wheat have helped to maintain in 2023 a similar area to the previous year.In combination with beneficial soil moistur
154、e conditions throughout the winter season,production is forecast to climb marginally to 138.5 million tonnes.In Near East Asia,abundant rains since March in Trkiye,the leading producer in the subregion,have alleviated earlier soil moisture deficits and lifted 2023 yields prospects from earlier expec
155、tations.Production is pegged at 18.8 million tonnes,moderately lower than the last five-year average.In North Africa,apart from Egypt,which produces wheat under irrigation,production prospects have been severely hindered by extensive and widespread rainfall deficits.Consequently,below-average harves
156、ts are expected for a second consecutive year in 2023.The least-affected country is Morocco,where an increase in wheat sowings is expected to support an upturn in wheat production to 3.7 million tonnes;however,the effects of dryness will likely keep production 35 percent below the average.In Algeria
157、 and Tunisia,substantial soil moisture deficits have severely impeded yield potential and wheat outputs are pegged well below the five-year averages.The planting of the 2023 wheat crop is underway in the Southern Hemisphere.In Australia,following two years of bumper wheat harvests,wheat production c
158、ould fall by about 10 million tonnes in 2023 due to anticipated shortfalls in precipitation associated with an El Nio event in the latter half of 2023 and a likely cutback in the sown area.InSouth America,wheat production is expected to rebound strongly in Argentina following the drought-stricken ha
159、rvest of 2022.This is based on a return to more conducive rains and larger plantings underpinned by favourable producer prices.TRADETrade likely to fall in 2023/24 from the 2022/23 recordWorld trade in wheat in 2023/24(July/June)is forecast to fall by 3.0 percent from the 2022/23 record level,down t
160、o 194 million tonnes.Most of the foreseen decline reflects anticipated smaller imports by China(mainland)and the European Union compared to their record purchases in 2022/23.In Asia,aggregate wheat imports are set to decline for a second consecutive season in 2023/24,to 101 million tonnes,down 5.7 p
161、ercent from 2022/23.Making up the bulk of the decline,a 4.5 million-tonne drop in wheat imports by China(mainland)is anticipated due to a slight rise in domestic production and lower use of wheat for animal feed.Ample domestic supplies due to relatively high carry-in stocks are also expected to redu
162、ce purchases by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Trkiye.In Europe,wheat imports in 2023/2024 are forecast to fall by nearly 27 percent from their 2022/23 level,attributed to a sharp fall in imports by the European Union.Following high imports in 2022/23,which reflected large flows from Ukraine throu
163、gh the Solidarity Lanes,wheat imports by the European Union are expected to fall by as much as 40 percent in 2023/24 to 6.3 million tonnes,with production anticipated to increase in the European Union and to decrease in Ukraine as a consequence of the war.In Latin America and the Caribbean,2023/24 w
164、heat imports are forecast at almost 23 million tonnes,remaining nearly stable compared to the 2022/23 levels.Brazil is set to remain the regions largest wheat importer,with purchases predicted to increase slightly to 5.8 million tonnes,due to a fall in production.Wheat imports by other main importer
165、s in the region,including Ecuador,Chile,Mexico and Peru are forecast to remain Figure 3.Wheat production in major wheat producers04080022202120202019China(mainland)Indiamillion tonnes estim.fcastRussian Fed.United States European UnionWHEATMarket assessments14FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023near the
166、ir respective levels of last season.In Africa,the continents total wheat imports are forecast to rise by 5.4 percent to 54.8 million tonnes.The largest increase is expected in Egypt to meet domestic demand and maintain stock levels.Following reduced imports by Egypt in 2022/23 when currency deprecia
167、tion and high debt levels made importing wheat at high international price levels difficult,expectations of lower international prices could support a rebound in Egypts wheat imports in 2023/24 to 12 million tonnes,re-establishing the country as the top wheat importer in the world.Similarly,imports
168、by Nigeria could rebound after last seasons decline.Algeria is also expected to import more to compensate for a forecasted fall in production,while slightly higher imports are anticipated for Ethiopia and the Sudan to meet domestic demand.Turning to export prospects for 2023/24,trends are mixed amon
169、g the major exporters.After two record export seasons,shipments from Australia are expected to fall by 28 percent in 2023/24 on account of tighter supplies because of projected production declines.Shipments from Ukraine are forecast to fall for a second consecutive season in 2023/24 by 32 percent,as
170、 a result of the continued impact of the war.Although the Black Sea Grain Initiative was implemented in July 2022,allowing Ukraine to ship wheat from its Black Sea ports,there have been several logistical challenges that have hindered the pace of shipments.In addition to inspection delays,uncertaint
171、y about the initiatives extension when it is up for renewal has affected the pace of shipments.Ukraines wheat production is also foreseen down year-on-year,reducing its exportable surplus.Tight domestic supplies and uncompetitive prices are behind an expected 5-percent fall in exports from the Unite
172、d States,reaching their lowest level since 1971/72.Although they could drop slightly from last season,exports by the Russian Federation are forecast to remain robust,reaching 45 million tonnes and maintaining the countrys position as the world leading exporter of wheat.By contrast,Argentina is forec
173、ast to more than double its sales from the decline in 2022/23,supported by an anticipated rebound in production.The European Union is also seen increasing its sales in 2023/24 by 9 percent,reflecting competitive prices,ample supplies and less competition from Ukraine to meet the strong demand from A
174、frica,where the European Union also has the advantage of geographic proximity.Exports by Canada are also predicted to rise slightly,supported by an ample exportable surplus.After rising to a record level in 2022/23,exports by Kazakhstan will likely remain stable in 2023/24.UTILIZATIONConsumption to
175、remain nearly stable in 2023/24Global total wheat utilization in 2023/24 is forecast at 780 million tonnes,only fractionally(0.1 percent)above the estimated level for 2022/23 and slightly(0.7 percent)below the ten-year trend.World food consumption is forecast to expand by 0.7 percent,to nearly 539 m
176、illion tonnes,maintaining its 69 percent share of the total use of wheat.At this level,the average world per capita wheat consumption would remain nearly steady at around 67.0 kg per annum.By contrast,global feed use of wheat is forecast to decline by 1.3 percent,to 151 million tonnes in 2023/24.The
177、 biggest declines are expected in China(mainland)and India,where higher prices of wheat relative to other feed grains should reduce the use of wheat for feeding animals in both countries.In the European Union,the largest market for feed wheat,the use of wheat for feed is forecast to remain near the
178、2022/23 level,supported by ample domestic supplies and a stagnant demand.Other uses of wheat,which include the industrial sector,seed and postharvest losses,are also forecast to decline to 90 million tonnes in 2023/24,down 1.4 percent from 2022/23.Making up the bulk of this decline is an anticipated
179、 fall in the industrial use of wheat in India,due to elevated domestic prices.STOCKS Wheat inventories to fall slightly in 2023/24 World wheat stocks are forecast to contract by 0.7 percent from their record-high opening levels,down to 308 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2024.Figure 4.Whea
180、t exports from the Black Sea02550752023/242022/232021/22av.2018/19-2020/2125303540million tonnespercentRussian Federation estim.fcastGlobal share of wheat exports from the common independent states(right axis)UkraineKazakhstan15FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023The bulk of the year-on-year anticipated reduction
181、 in global wheat inventories is concentrated in the Russian Federation,where stocks are forecast to drop by 24 percent because of expectations of a fall in production and a second consecutive season of record high exports.Stock drawdowns are also anticipated in the United States,reaching the lowest
182、level in 16 years,following back-to-back below-average harvests,and in Kazakhstan,due to a forecast fall in production.Offsetting some of those drawdowns,wheat inventories are set to rise above their opening levels in both China(mainland)and India with the expected production increases.In India,the
183、official planned procurement target of 34.15 million tonnes for the 2023/24 marketing year also indicates an anticipated increase in official stocks from the multiyear low reached last seasonAt current forecast levels,the world wheat stocks-to-use ratio in 2023/24 would stand at 38.9 percent,down fr
184、om the record high of 39.8 percent reached in 2022/23 but still the third highest level on record since 1982/83.The ratio of the major wheat exporters closing stocks to total disappearance(defined as domestic utilization plus exports),which is considered a better measure of global availabilities,is
185、expected to fall from 19.1 percent in 2022/23 to 17.7 percent in 2023/24.With the exception of Argentina and Canada,where carryovers are set to increase slightly,stocks held by all other major exporters are seen heading for declines in 2023/24,especially in the Russian Federation.Figure 6.Wheat impo
186、rts:top 10 wheat importers03691215 Egypt2023/24 fcast2020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesIndonesiaTrkiyeEuropeanUnionChina(mainland)MoroccoPhilippinesAlgeriaBrazilNigeriaFigure 5.Wheat exports:top 10 wheat exporters01020304050 EuropeanUnion2023/24 fcast2020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesRussianFe
187、d.AustraliaArgentinaCanadaBrazilTrkiyeUnitedStatesUkraineKazakhstanWHEATFigure 7.Global wheat utilization02004006008002023/242022/232021/222020/212019/20million tonnesFood useFeed useOther usesestim.fcastFigure 8.Wheat stocks of major exporters03060902023/242021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/12
188、2009/100102030million tonnespercentRussianFed.Stocks-to-disappearance ratio of major exportersfcastEuropean UnionAustraliaUnited StatesUkraineCanadaArgentinaKazakhstanMarket assessments16FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2022Figure 10.Wheat stocks and ratios07002023/242022/232021/222020/212019/20010203040
189、50million tonnespercentMajor ExportersRest of the WorldChina(mainland)World Stocks-to-use ratioStocks-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exportersestim.fcastFigure 9.Wheat stocks of top importers05023/242021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/10million tonnesIndonesiafcastEgyptTrkiyeC
190、hina(mainland)Iran(Islamic Rep.of)BangladeshBrazilAlgeria17FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2022COARSE GRAINSFigure 2.CBOT maize December futuresFigure 1.Maize export price(US No.2 yellow,Gulf)COARSE GRAINS*03053502022/232021/222020/21USD per tonneJMAMFJDNOSAJ0280320MAMFJDUSD per tonne2022 va
191、lues2023 valuesPRICESPrices down from record level reached in 2022After reaching a record high in 2022,following the disruptions created by the war in Ukraine,international prices of coarse grains have dropped to their pre-war 2021 levels.Prices fell quickly with the reopening of Ukraines Black Sea
192、ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative(BSGI)in July 2022,before remaining generally stable for the remainder of 2022,except for short-lived periodic increases mostly caused by uncertainty around the extension of the BSGI.In 2023,international coarse grain prices eased again,falling by 9 percent
193、between January and May 2023,mostly reflecting higher seasonal availabilities with the start of maize harvests in South America,an expected record maize harvest in Brazil and an anticipated larger output in the United States of America(United States),pointing to a likely recovery in global supplies
194、in 2023/24.By May 2023,Shutterstock*Coarse grains include maize,barley,sorghum,millet,rye,oats and NES(not elsewhere specified)Market assessments18FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Figure 3.Major maize producers0020232022202120202019million tonnes estim.fcastUnitedStatesChina(mainland)BrazilEuropeanUn
195、ioninternational coarse grain prices were 28 percent below their May 2022 levels.Prospects for improved export availabilities in the 2023/24 season,underpinned largely by expected larger maize harvests in Brazil and the United States,have also weighed on futures prices recently.The Chicago Board of
196、Trade(CBOT)maize futures for delivery in December 2023,which is the benchmark delivery month for the new US crop,averaged USD 206 per tonne in May,down 12 percent from January 2023.However,high volatility in maize futures indicates that the overall softer outlook is coupled with heightened vulnerabi
197、lity in the market.More detailed analysis of the futures markets can be found in the Market Indicators section of this report.PRODUCTIONProduction forecast to rise to record high At 1 513 million tonnes,FAOs first forecast for global coarse grains production in 2023 suggests a 3 percent year-on-year
198、 increase,with the bulk of the growth linked to an anticipated upturn in maize production.Global maize output is forecast at 1 212 million tonnes in 2023,4.2 percent above the previous years level and on par with the record outturn in 2021.In Northern America,where a large proportion of the global i
199、ncrease is concentrated,the United States is expected to harvest a record maize crop in 2023,pegged at 387.8 million tonnes,11.2 percent up year-on-year.The growth primarily rests on an expected significant expansion in sowings,underpinned by good profit prospects,amid easing input prices and a posi
200、tive yield outlook.In Canada,largely driven by a pullback in plantings,maize production in 2023 is forecast to decline to a near-average level of 13.9 million tonnes.In Europe,the impact of the war in Ukraine,including significant financial constraints across the sector and severe logistical disrupt
201、ions,points to a further sizeable cut to the maize area in 2023.With yields also likely to decrease,reflecting limited input use,production is forecast well below the past five-year average.In the Russian Federation,a small upturn in plantings is foreseen,which should foster an increase in maize pro
202、duction in 2023 to a level slightly above the five-year average.In the European Union,the forecast for maize production in 2023 is pegged at 64.6 million tonnes,a steep 24 percent increase over the reduced output gathered last year,but still a below-average level.The foreseen rebound reflects a like
203、ly increase in yields,bolstered by recent abundant rains,although the heavy downpours have also delayed sowings and could contain the area planted.In South America,maize production in Brazil is forecast to break recent records to reach an all-time high of 126 million tonnes in 2023.This expectation
204、largely rests on an increase in maize plantings on account of strong price incentives stimulated by robust domestic and international demand.Yields are also expected to be above average,despite earlier concerns over hot and dry weather during the minor first season.By contrast,maize production in Ar
205、gentina is anticipated to drop sharply to 41 million tonnes in 2023,significantly short of the five-year average,owing to harsh dry weather conditions.In Africa,sowing of the 2023 maize crop has started in East and West Africa,while crops are being harvested in Southern Africa.In South Africa,the co
206、ntinents leading producer,the maize harvest is pegged at 16.5 million tonnes,the third highest level on record and marginally above last years output.This expectation is based on good yield prospects,which are expected to offset the effects of a cutback in plantings amid ample domestic supplies and
207、high input costs in 2022.In neighbouring Southern African countries,adverse weather,including cyclones and rainfall deficits,have capped production outlooks;however,several countries are still likely to register harvest upturns in 2023,following the drought-stricken outputs in 2022.In Asia,maize pro
208、duction in China(mainland)in 2023 is forecast at an above-average level of 281 million tonnes,up moderately on a yearly basis.Moderate production increases are predicted in most other key producing countries in Asia.The world production of sorghum is pegged at 60.2 million tonnes in 2023,a 6.3 perce
209、nt year-on-year increase.This outlook almost entirely reflects a forecast 19FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023COARSE GRAINSTable 1.World coarse grain market at a glanceTable 2.Coarse grain production:leading producers*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2020-2022).20212022
210、estim.2023fcastChange:2023 over 2022milliontonnes%United States of America398.1358.8402.412.1China(Mainland)283.5287.5291.51.4European Union157.2133.9148.410.8Brazil90.8117.8132.012.1Argentina70.067.249.4-26.4India51.351.951.5-0.9Russian Federation40.443.141.6-3.5Ukraine53.434.428.7-16.5Mexico33.032
211、.232.92.0Canada25.230.628.1-8.2Indonesia22.723.023.20.9Ethiopia22.822.122.10.0Nigeria21.521.621.4-0.9Australia18.318.714.5-22.5South Africa17.616.617.13.0Trkiye13.217.714.8-16.2Pakistan11.210.410.50.8Other countries179.6181.3182.90.9World1.509.71.468.81.513.03.01 Trade refers to exports based on a c
212、ommon July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries.4 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,th
213、e European Union,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.increase in production in the United States,where yields are seen recovering following drought impacts in 2022.Global barley production is expected to fall by 4.3 percent to 145.9 million tonnes in 2023.The bulk of this
214、decline is attributed to two key producers,Australia and the Russian Federation,where yields are foreseen to fall,following the highs achieved in 2022.The expected drop in yields is likely to be particularly pronounced in Australia,where rainfall shortages are anticipated,owing to an imminent return
215、 of the El Nio weather phenomenon.A sizeable decrease in barley production is also forecast in Trkiye,with yields seen retreating after the well above-average levels in 2022.TRADEWorld trade in coarse grains to increase slightly in 2023/24 FAOs first forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2023
216、/24(July/June)is pegged at 221 million tonnes,up 1.4 percent from 2022/23.A robust rise is forecast in global sorghum trade,while global trade in maize is seen rising marginally and barley trade is expected to remain near last seasons level.Global trade in sorghum is anticipated to increase by 31 pe
217、rcent to reach 9.5 million tonnes in 2023/24.The predicted increase is on the back of a rebound in shipments from the United States underpinned by an expected production recovery from the low output last season.On the import side,larger purchases are expected by China(mainland)to meet feed demand,su
218、pporting the higher trade expectations.Global maize trade in 2023/40(July/June)is pegged at 179 million tonnes,up 0.5 percent from 2022/23.In Asia,higher demand for maize in feed rations and lower international maize prices relative to domestic prices are driving expectations of an 11 percent increa
219、se in maize imports by China(mainland),reaching 20 million tonnes.Purchases by the Islamic Republic of Iran,Japan,the Republic of Korea,and Thailand are all predicted to rebound from their reduced levels of 2022/23,supported by lower international maize prices.Along with a predicted increase in impo
220、rts by Trkiye to compensate for lower domestic production,these increases are seen boosting total maize imports into Asia by 7 percent to 95 million tonnes in 2034/24.Aggregate maize imports in Africa are also forecast to increase by 5 percent to 20 million tonnes,reflecting a rebound in purchases b
221、y Egypt from a reduced level in 2022/23.Likewise,in Latin America and the Caribbean,aggregate maize imports are expected to rise by 3 percent in 2023/24,on the back of higher purchases by 2021/222022/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction1 509.71 468.
222、81 513.03.0Trade1 230.9 218.4 221.41.4Total utilization1 504.41 478.21 503.31.7Food 224.4 227.8 229.50.8Feed 878.2 855.3 875.22.3Other uses 401.7 395.1 398.60.9Ending stocks2 364.8 352.6 366.23.9SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)28.4 28.6 28.5-0.3LIFDC3(kg/yr)60.9 61
223、.5 61.0-0.8World stocks-to-use ratio(%)24.723.523.6Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio4(%)13.013.014.4 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%145 169 154-0.2Market assessments20FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Figure 5.Coarse grain exports:
224、major exportersFigure 4.Global trade of coarse grains by type002022/23(estimate)2023/24(forecast)million tonnes UnitedStatesEuropeanUnionCanadaBrazilUkraineArgentinaAustraliaRussianFederationMexico,the regions largest importer,following a foreseen reduced output and low carryover stocks f
225、rom 2022/23.Partly offsetting these increases,imports into Europe are set to fall by 26 percent,attributed to an anticipated decline in imports by the European Union,supported by good production prospects,from its elevated level in 2022/23 to compensate for the reduced production last year.Regarding
226、 maize exports,prospects vary across the main suppliers.The largest increase in sales is predicted for the United States,where an increase in domestic production could push up exports by 13 percent to 53 million tonnes,potentially re-establishing it as the worlds leading maize exporter after being s
227、ucceeded by Brazil in 2022/23.Shipments from Brazil are also anticipated to rise by 3 percent in 2023/24,reaching 50 million tonnes,which would represent a second consecutive record-breaking sales season,supported by back-to-back record harvests.By contrast,a fall in production is seen to limit sale
228、s by Argentina in 2023/24 to 28.5 million tonnes,representing a 3 percent decline from 2022/23.Exports in 2023/24 are also forecast to fall for Ukraine to 23 million tonnes,down 10 percent,reflecting the significant impact of the war on export logistics and domestic production.In line with the estim
229、ated trade for the 2022/23 season,FAOs forecast for world trade in barley(excluding malt)in 2023/24 is pegged at 29 million tonnes.Strong feed demand is expected to boost imports by China(mainland)in 2023/24,up 2 million tonnes.In the European Union,ample supplies following a year of elevated purcha
230、ses and an anticipated production increase are seen reducing imports and simultaneously raising exports.By contrast,sales by Australia could contract in view of the expected decline in the countrys production.UTILIZATIONTotal utilization of coarse grains to rebound in 2023/24 World utilization of co
231、arse grains in 2023/24 is forecast to reach 1 503 million tonnes,1.7 percent higher than in 2022/23 but still marginally below the 2021/22 record level.The main driver behind the rebound is a forecast 2.3 percent rise in feed utilization of coarse grains,seen reaching 875 million tonnes.Accounting f
232、or the majority of the growth,maize feed use is anticipated to surpass its 2022/23 level by 2.6 percent to reach 711 million tonnes.After a significant slump last season,when domestic supplies were tight and prices were high,higher production and lower expected prices are seen supporting a strong re
233、bound(7 percent)in feed use of maize in the United States in 2023/24.Lower maize prices,especially imported versus domestic,relative to other grains underpin prospects of a 3 percent increase in maize used for feed in China(mainland).A strong rise(7 percent)in feed use of maize is also expected in B
234、razil,supported by large domestic supplies and robust demand from the livestock sector,along with a smaller(2 percent)increase anticipated in the European Union.World food consumption of coarse grains in 2023/24 is expected to rise by 0.8 percent from 2022/23,to 230 million tonnes.At the current for
235、ecast level,food consumption of coarse grains represents about 15 percent of total utilization.Food consumption of maize,which accounts for the largest share,is predicted to increase by 0.8 percent in 2023/24 to 149 million tonnes,with the greatest increases foreseen in Africa and Asia,while the hig
236、hest per capita consumption continues to be in Central America and the Caribbean.Food consumption of barley is also projected 02023/242022/232021/222020/212019/20million tonnesMaizeBarleySorghumestim.fcastOther coarse grains21FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023COARSE GRAINSFigure 6.Maize exports:top 1
237、0 maize exporters00 United States2023/242020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesBrazilArgentinaIndiaRussianFederationCanadaUkraineSouthAfricaEuropeanUnionMyanmarFigure 7.Maize imports:top 10 maize importers0510152025 China(mainland)2023/242020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesMexicoJapanEgypt
238、Viet NamColombiaTaiwanProvinceof ChinaRep.of KoreaIran(IslamicRep.of)EuropeanUnionFigure 8.Sorghum exports:top 5 sorghum exporters02462023/242020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesUnitedStatesArgentinaAustraliaEthiopiaSudanFigure 9.Sorghum imports:top 5 sorghum importers024682023/24 fcast2020/21-2022/
239、23 averagemillion tonnesChina(mainland)MexicoJapanSudanKenyaFigure 10.Barley exports:top 10 barley exporters02468 2023/242020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesRussianFederationAustraliaKazakhstanUruguayUnitedKingdomCanadaEuropeanUnionArgentinaUkraineTrkiyeFigure 11.Barley imports:top 10 barley import
240、ers0246810 China(mainland)2023/242020/21-2022/23 averagemillion tonnesSaudiArabiaTrkiyeLibyaJordanTunisiaAlgeriaJapanIran(IslamicRep.of)EuropeanUnionMarket assessments22FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 20232015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 estim.2023/24(fcast)Maize production345.506384.778371
241、.096364.262345.962358.447382.893348.751387.749Ethanol use132.085132.695137.978142.373136.607127.716135.286133.355134.625Yearly change(%)1.50.54.03.2-4.0-6.55.9-1.41.0As of production(%)38.234.537.239.139.535.635.338.234.7Table 3.Maize use for ethanol(excluding non-fuel)in the UnitedStates Source:WAS
242、DE-USDA 12 May 2023 and FAO estimates.to expand by 1.2 percent in 2023/24,reaching 8 million tonnes,led by higher intakes in India.Similarly,sorghum food consumption is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent in 2023/24 to 30 million tonnes,attributed to foreseen higher consumption in several African co
243、untries and the European Union.Industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 0.9 percent in 2023/24,underpinned mostly by a 1.0 percent predicted rise in the industrial use of maize.The increase is attributed to higher use of maize for ethanol in the United States,where gasoline consump
244、tion and the ethanol inclusion rate are expected to grow,and in Brazil,given the ample maize supplies.STOCKSWorld inventories of coarse grains seen recovering in 2023/24 After contracting in 2022/23,world stocks of coarse grains are forecast to recover in 2023/24 with a 3.9 percent increase from the
245、ir opening levels,reaching 366 million tonnes by the end of seasons in 2024.Given the predicted rise in both world stocks and utilization,the world stocks-to-use ratio of coarse grains in 2023/24 is likely to stay near the 2022/23 level,up only fractionally(0.1 percent),from 23.5 percent to 23.6 per
246、cent.The ratio of major exporters closing stocks to their total disappearance(defined as domestic utilization plus exports)is likely to increase from 13.0 percent in 2022/23 to 14.5 percent in 2023/24,indicating an increase in availabilities from a global perspective.However,this increase largely re
247、flects the forecast rise in inventory levels in the United States(up 20.9 million tonnes).Nearly all of the anticipated increase in world inventories of coarse grains would be due to a rise in maize stocks,which are expected to increase by 4.6 percent from their opening levels to 302 million tonnes,
248、representing a partial rebound from their fall last season.Making up the bulk of the increase,maize inventories in the United States are set to rise by 57 percent to 56 million tonnes in 2023/24,after remaining at tight levels for the past three consecutive seasons,as a result of the anticipated ris
249、e in production.Higher domestic production is also seen boosting maize inventories in Brazil,the European Union,the Russian Federation,and Serbia and Montenegro.These increases are seen outweighing expected maize inventory drawdowns in Argentina,China(mainland)and Ukraine.Among other major coarse gr
250、ains,global inventories of barley are also predicted to increase in 2023/24,up 3.4 percent from their opening levels to 35 million tonnes.Leading that forecast increase,a rise in barley inventories is expected in the European Union,stemming from slightly higher production amid lower consumption in 2
251、023/24,combined with elevated import levels in 2022/23 and 2023/24.Smaller increases in barley stocks are expected in Kazakhstan and the United States.By contrast,global sorghum inventories could drop by 4.4 percent to 6.5 million tonnes.Most of the decline is seen in the European Union,on account o
252、f consumption outweighing production,and in the Sudan,following an anticipated smaller domestic production.Figure 12.Top 10 Coarse Grains importers02/23(estimate)2023/24(forecast)million tonnes Iran(IslamicRepublic of)Republic ofKoreaEgyptEuropeanUnionViet NamJapanColombiaSaudi ArabiaMexi
253、coChina(mainland)23FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023COARSE GRAINSFigure 13.Maize exports from the Black Sea03/242022/232021/22av.2018/19-2020/21010203040million tonnespercentUkraine estim.fcastGlobal share of maize exports from the common independent states(right axis)Russian FederationKazakhstanFig
254、ure 14.Global coarse grains utilization04008003/242022/232021/222020/212019/20million tonnesFeed useFood useOther usesestim.fcastFigure 15.Global barley and maize consumptionBarley feed useMaize feed use02004006008002023/242022/232021/222020/212019/20million tonnesMaize other useBarley ot
255、her useestim.fcastFigure 16.Maize stocks for major exporters0204060801002023/242021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/5million tonnespercentArgentinaStocks-to-disappearance ratio of major exportersfcastUnited StatesBrazilUkraineFigure 18.Coarse grain stocks and ratios00
256、2023/242022/232021/222020/212019/201015202530million tonnespercentMajor ExportersRest of the worldChina(Mainland)World Stocks-to-use ratioStocks-to-disappearance ratio of major exportersestim.fcastFigure 17.Maize stocks for top importers05002023/242021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/1
257、22009/10million tonnesfcastMexicoJapanChina(mainland)Republic ofKoreaViet NamEuropean UnionEgyptIran(Islamic Republic of)Market assessments24FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Figure 1.FAO All Rice Price Index RICEFigure 2.FAO Rice Price Indices7095120145170MayJanSepMayJanSepMayJanSepMayJan2014-2016=100Indica Ind
258、exAromatic IndexGlutinous Index202220202021Japonica Index2023PRICES Rice export prices at their highest since October 2011After rising for much of 2022,international rice prices have remained on an upward trajectory in 2023,as reflected by the FAO All Rice Price Index,rising by 7.5 percent since the
259、 close of 2022 to 127.8 points in May 2023,its highest level since October 2011.Indica and Aromatic quotations have spearheaded this increase,rising,respectively,by 9.5 and 7.0 percent since the onset of 2023.These increases were influenced by a combination of demand and supply side factors.On the d
260、emand side,prices have drawn support from strong purchases by Asian buyers,often resulting from public efforts to keep domestic prices in check and/or to reconstitute reserves.In Pakistan,in the lead up to the countrys wheat harvest,local demand for rice was also strong.All the while,exportable avai
261、labilities tightened in some major suppliers,due to production disruptions in 2022/23 resulting from poor weather and/or hikes in production costs.In India,where Indica 900DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan202320014-2016=1002022FAORICE25FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023Figure 3.Global p
262、addy production and area5005606206807408002023/242022/232020/212018/192016/172014/156163170million tonnesmillion haProduction(left axis)Area(right axis)fcastwhite rice remained subject to a 20-percent export tax,further support was provided by consistently strong government domestic purch
263、ases,despite reductions in its main crop output.More recently,concerns over the potential production impacts of the emergence of an El Nio phenomenon have tended to add to the price bullishness.The firmness,however,has not extended to all rice market segments.After reaching all-time nominal highs in
264、 January 2023,Japonica quotations have eased by 7.5 percent,weighed by low buying interest,the arrival of freshly harvested supplies in Viet Nam and expectations of a rebound in Californian Calrose production.Glutinous prices have also shed 4.8 percent of their value since the close of 2022,depresse
265、d by lacklustre demand,especially from China.PRODUCTION Production seen staging a recovery,but weather uncertainties persistReflecting the positive incentives provided by generally higher producer prices,easing fertilizer costs and continuing government assistance measures,global rice production is
266、forecast at 523.5 million tonnes(milled basis)in 2023/24.This would represent a 1.3 percent upturn from the 2022/23 reduced level,while still representing a comparatively subdued output expansion.The global production outlook is highly influenced by expected developments in Asia,the worlds rice gran
267、ary.With a total forecast harvest of 471.5 million tonnes,Asian production in 2023/24 could end 1.0 percent above the 2022/23 level while still falling somewhat short of the 2021/22 all-time high.Indeed,evidence of good results is already emerging where the season is more advanced,for instance in Ba
268、ngladesh and Indonesia,where plantings expanded,and in Sri Lanka,where availability of,and access to,urea improved.This adds to expectations of output expansions in Cambodia,the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Myanmar and Thailand.At the same time,however,many uncertainties persist for secondary cro
269、ps being currently planted along and south of the equator and for main crops being sown in the Northern Hemisphere.These uncertainties primarily surround weather conditions,given the high probability of an El Nio event emerging during the Northern Hemisphere summer and its association with reduced r
270、ainfall over parts of Southern and Southeastern Asia.In India,however,expectations of production shortfalls due to the phenomenon are tempered by generally above-average water supplies in major reservoirs ensured by abundant pre-monsoon rains,as well as forecasts calling for the concomitant emergenc
271、e of the Indian Ocean Dipole,with its positive influence on monsoon performance.If realised,this could help India to replicate the record output performance of 2022/23.A return to more normal temperatures,compared to the heat wave conditions of last year,could also enable output to recover in China(
272、mainland),where,however,the pace of production growth may be limited by competition with other crops,given ongoing efforts to boost oilseed production in the country.After the dismal outcomes registered last season,output is also forecast to recover in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.This is even if successi
273、ve seasons of reduced potassic and phosphatic fertilizer applications are set to curb yield recoveries in Sri Lanka,and high electricity and fuel prices could impede a full upturn in plantings in Pakistan.The outlook is instead negative for Afghanistan,Iraq,the Islamic Republic of Iran and Trkiye,wh
274、ich may see tight irrigation water supplies depress output,in the Republic of Korea and Japan,where poor price prospects are envisaged to curb planting,and in Nepal,where forecasts of possible rainfall deficits in parts of the Terai cloud output expectations.Production prospects are positive for Afr
275、ica,which could see its aggregate harvest rise by 5.3 percent in 2023/24 to reach a fresh peak of 25.8 million tonnes,underpinned by anticipated expansions namely in Egypt,Ghana,Madagascar,Mali,Nigeria,Senegal and Sierra Leone.The outlook assumes a normal climatic unfolding of the Northern-Hemispher
276、e summer in the region,which could help to avert flood losses,such as those experienced last season in Chad,Mali and Nigeria,among others,while also permitting producers to respond to generally high prices by expanding plantings.Governments are likely to provide additional support,often through self
277、-sufficiency Market assessments26FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Table 1.World rice market at a glanceTable 2.Rice Production:leading producers*2021/222022/232023/24fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes,milled equivalent China(mainland)145.8142.8143.40.4%India129.5130.8131.00.1%Bangladesh37.838.338.91.
278、8%Indonesia34.835.135.41.0%Viet Nam28.527.727.80.3%Thailand21.822.823.01.0%Myanmar16.514.815.65.0%Philippines13.012.912.9-0.1%Pakistan9.37.08.724.6%Brazil8.07.36.8-7.8%Japan7.57.37.2-0.4%Cambodia7.37.17.44.5%United States of America6.15.16.120.2%Nigeria5.05.15.45.9%Egypt3.43.73.95.7%World 526.0516.9
279、523.51.3%*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average of 2021/22-2023/24).1 Calendar year exports(second year shown).2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country
280、marketing years.3 Major exporters include India,Pakistan,Thailand,the UnitedStates of America and Viet Nam.2021/222022/23 fcast2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23milliontonnes,milled equivalent%WORLD BALANCEProduction526.0516.9523.51.3Trade 156.053.656.65.5Total utilization522.7519.8520.10.1Foo
281、d419.1422.3424.80.6Ending stocks2197.0194.8198.31.8SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)53.053.052.8-0.3LIFDC(kg/yr)51.551.151.10.1World stocks-to-use ratio(%)37.937.537.8Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)28.729.530.6FAO RICE PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202
282、120222023 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2023 over Jan-May 2022%.7programmes that make inputs available to producers and seek to expand irrigation coverage.In the case of Egypt,however,area expansions are anticipated to be limited by the similarly attractive prices of competing crops,including mai
283、ze,while government efforts to conserve scarce water resources by capping plantings continue to be implemented in the country.In the Sahel,much will also depend on the prevailing security situation and whether farmers will be able to access fields,productive inputs and markets.This would be especial
284、ly so for Mali,where production has remained below-normal levels for two successive seasons because of insecurity in important central producing areas.Expectations are more subdued in eastern parts of the continent,where a third successive season of rainfall deficits under the influence of the now d
285、issipated La Nia phenomenon has hampered production.This includes the United Republic of Tanzania,where,however,somewhat improved precipitation since March could sustain a partial recovery from the reduced 2022/23 crop.Marking its second successive contraction,production in Latin America and the Car
286、ibbean is forecast at 17.7 million tonnes in 2023/24,down 2.2 percent year-on-year.Much of this fall would be imputable to Argentina and Brazil,where plantings and yields were impaired by dryness associated with the La Nia phenomenon,which lingered throughout much of the 2023/24 crop growing period.
287、However,for Central American and Caribbean producers who are about to,or in the process of,planting their main 2023/24 crops,the likely emergence of an El Nio event,with its associated repressed rains,also dampen prospects.Indeed,amid erratic rains and/or profitability constraints,often linked to co
288、mpetition with imports and persistently high production costs,only a few producing countries in the region will likely see output expand in 2023/24,namely Bolivia,Chile,Guyana,Nicaragua and,especially,Colombia and Paraguay.In Paraguay,despite some planting delays,more ample water supplies and positi
289、ve price prospects are expected to lift the countrys output 37.6 percent above the 2022/23 drought-affected result to 830 000 tonnes,while Colombias harvest is forecast to stage a 6.9 percent,price-driven,upturn to 1.9 million tonnes.In Northern America,2023/24 production in the United States of Ame
290、rica is forecast to rebound by 20.2 percent year-on-year to 6.1 million tonnes,as improved margins encourage farmers to bring area back under long-grain varieties and easing drought conditions in California enable Japonica plantings in the state to return closer to the 2021/22 level.In Europe,output
291、 in the Russian Federation is forecast to see a 15.9 percent upturn to 0.7 million tonnes,amid expectations of fewer losses in its RICE27FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2023Figure 6.Global rice trade and FAO All Rice Price Index Figure 4.Rice imports by regionFigure 5.Rice exports by origin048022202120
292、202001620152014million tonnes,milled eq.fcastAfricaFar EastNear East AsiaOthersLatin America&C.0510152025 20222023 forecastmillion tonnes,milled eq.IndiaPakistanThailandUnited States of AmericaViet NamOthers02550750222020201820162014*January-May average for 2023milli
293、on tonnes,milled eq.2014-2016=100Exports(left axis)FAO All Rice Price Index(right axis)*fcastmain growing region relative to those registered last year as a result of the collapse of an important irrigation dam.At the same time,however,prolonged dryness in the lead up to plantings kept water availab
294、ility for irrigation very limited in the European Unions largest rice producers,Italy and Spain,obstructing farmers capacity to respond to high Japonica prices by expanding plantings.This is expected to cause output in the European Union to fall 1.8 percent below the already reduced outcome of 2022/
295、23 to 1.2 million tonnes.In Australia,Oceanias leading producing country,ample water supplies for irrigation and strong margins boded well for the season.Yet,untimely rains at planting time impeded farmers from fully realizing their planting intentions and pushed a portion of plantings beyond the op
296、timal sowing window.As a result,and although still remaining nearly tentimes higher than the 2020/21 drought-reduced harvest,Australian output may fall 27.8 percent below the 2022/23 good result to 333 000 tonnes.TRADE Tighter exportable availabilities and higher import costs to depress internationa
297、l trade in 2023 International trade in rice is forecast to register its first contraction in four years in 2023(JanuaryDecember),passing from a record high of 56.0 million tonnes in 2022 to 53.6 million tonnes this year.Asia,the prime destination of global rice flows,is expected to take delivery of
298、nearly half of this volume,or some 25.6 million tonnes,4.7 percent less than the 2022 high.China(mainland)is predicted to account for a large share of this contraction,with purchases expected to drop by 1.1 million tonnes to 5.0 million tonnes,as a reduction in exportable availabilities of fully bro
299、ken rice and consequent price increases are anticipated to render imported brokens a less attractive animal feed ingredient in the country.Purchases by Viet Nam are seen falling under similar circumstances.Sufficient local supplies are likewise forecast to enable the Philippines to reduce its import
300、s from the record highs registered in 2022,while imports by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to be affected by the lingering weakness of their local currencies.On the other hand,faced with high domestic rice prices or broader inflationary pressure,some governments continue to take steps to faci
301、litate rice inflows from abroad through duty concessions or public sector imports,thus likely contributing to keep total Asian purchases abundant in 2023.This has been most notably the case of Indonesia,which will likely see its imports rise to a five-year high,as well as Trkiye,and Market assessmen
302、ts28FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023Bangladesh,Iraq,and the Islamic Republic of Iran,which could see their 2023 rice purchases remain robust by historical standards.Amid high domestic rice prices and weather-induced production disruptions,some governments in Africa have also taken steps to facilitate imports.T
303、his has been the case of Guinea-Bissau,Kenya and the United Republic of Tanzania,where import expansions are expected to be facilitated by such measures.Demand-driven increases are likewise anticipated for Liberia,Mauritania and Nigeria.At the same time,however,Egypt,Ethiopia,Ghana,and Sierra Leone
304、could see their imports constrained by higher international prices,currency depreciations against the United States dollar and higher import financing costs,adding to the disruptions to trade of fully broken rice that could also cut deliveries to Senegal,in particular.As a result,2023 consignments t
305、o Africa,on aggregate,could fall 5.3 percent below the 2022 level to 17.7 million tonnes.Elsewhere,expectations of cuts in broken rice purchases are also behind forecast import falls in the European Union and the United States of America,with an anticipated rebound in local Calrose production also e
306、xpected to contribute to reduce imports in the latter.Among the various regions,only Latin America and the Caribbean is seen importing more in 2023.Indeed,Brazil,Mexico,Panama and Peru may need to raise imports to make up for production shortfalls,offsetting forecast reductions,namely in Venezuela,d
307、ue to more ample local availabilities,and in Haiti,where insecurity problems and the weakness of the gourde could continue to affect purchases.On the export side,various international suppliers,including Argentina,Brazil,the Russian Federation,the United States of America and especially Pakistan are
308、 expected to see their 2023 rice exports hampered by supply tightness stemming from output reductions.Strong local demand and macroeconomic constraints could compound the supply tightness in Pakistan,while also limiting export growth in Myanmar,where stringent requirements regarding the conversion o
309、f export earnings into the kyat have been in place since last year.Indias retreat from the broken export market,following its September 2022 prohibition of shipments of fully broken rice,is anticipated to add to these reductions,lowering the countrys overall shipments 7.9 percent below the 2022 high
310、 to 20.4 million tonnes.However,at this level,Indian deliveries would still be well over their pre-2021 levels,since,amid no dearth in local supplies,Indian export prices of non-fully broken rice remain competitive relative to other origins and the Indian Government has approved various relaxations
311、to the broken export ban and the export taxes it imposed last year.Australia,Cambodia,Guyana,Thailand and Viet Nam are all seen counting on sufficient supplies to step-up shipments in 2023,or to keep them at overall high levels,as is expected to be the case in Paraguay and Uruguay.UTILIZATIONContinu
312、ed cuts in use of rice for animal feed to forestall growth in overall rice utilization Preliminary prospects for 2023/24 point to a moderation in world rice use,as an expansion in food use could be largely offset by cuts in non-food uses,particularly for animal feed.As a result,global rice utilizati
313、on could remain at a total of 520.1 million tonnes(milled basis),just 0.1 percent above the 2022/23 level.Although traditionally accounting for a small share of overall rice utilization,the use of rice for animal feed emerged as an important driver of rice utilization between 2020/21 and 2021/22,as
314、abundant rice availabilities in the context of high prices of alternative feedstuffs rendered rice,namely fully broken rice,an attractive feed ingredient.This trend was partly reversed in 2022/23,when tighter exportable availabilities of brokens and easing international grain prices caused feed use
315、to decline.Barring major disruptions,this tendency is expected to continue over the course of 2023/24,which could lower overall volumes of rice destined for non-food uses by 2.2 percent to 95.2 million tonnes.1 Expectations are more buoyant on the food use side.Amid prospects of generally abundant s
316、upplies in the new season,which could contribute to bring domestic rice prices down in various countries,food consumption is seen closely tracking or exceeding predicted population growth in most regions.This could bring global food use volumes to a total of 424.8 million tonnes in 2023/24,up 0.6 pe
317、rcent year-on-year.However,considering that the bulk of global consumption of rice in the new season will not occur until late 2023 and well into 2024,much will likely depend on the economic context prevailing then as well as government policies.Indeed,easing inflationary pressure and improved econo
318、mic growth prospects could encourage some governments,particularly in Asia,to wind-down the expanded food distribution schemes that they have implemented since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and that were further reinforced last year in the context of high grain prices.This,coupled with increasi
319、ngly tighter supplies in Latin America and the Caribbean,could cause global per capita food intake to drop slightly from 53.0 kilos in 2022/23 to 52.8 kilos in 2023/24.1 Other than volumes destined for animal feed,non-food uses include seeds,postharvest losses and non-food industrial uses.RICE29FOOD
320、 OUTLOOK JUNE 2023Figure 8.Stocks held by the five major rice exporters and stocks-to-disappearance ratio0023/242020/212022/232018/192016/172014/5million tonnespercentIndiaViet NamThailandStocks-to-disappearance ratio(right axis)fcastPakistanUnited Statesof America STOCKSWorld
321、rice reserves seen rebounding to an all-time highWith global rice production forecast to surpass expected utilization in 2023/24,world rice stocks at the close of 2023/24 marketing seasons are predicted to expand by 1.8 percent to 198.3 million tonnes.If confirmed,this would be an all-time record hi
322、gh,being sufficient to cover 4.5 months of projected global consumption.Rice exporting countries are anticipated to drive the forecast rebound in rice carry-overs,lifting their aggregate level of reserves by 3.2 percent year-on-year to a peak of 66.7 million tonnes.Much of this increase would be imp
323、utable to India,where another abundant harvest and the wind down of extraordinary rice distribution over and above levels normally envisaged by the National Food Security Act could result in stocks expanding by 4.0 percent year-on-year to 44.5 million tonnes.Output recoveries could also enable Pakis
324、tan and the United States of America to reconstitute their reserves,with another accumulation also seen taking place in Thailand,while stocks in Viet Nam are expected to be little changed.By contrast,Australia,Cambodia,Myanmar and Uruguay may all need to draw on their reserves to meet expected consu
325、mption and export needs,with a drought-hit crop also anticipated to lead to a sizeable drawdown in Brazil,while keeping inventories low in Argentina.Based on these tendencies,the five major exporters2 stock-to-disappearance ratio3 could reach 30.6 percent in 2023/24,up from 29.5 percent in 2022/23.2
326、 India,Pakistan,Thailand,the United States of America and Viet Nam.3 Defined as the sum of domestic utilization and exports.Rice importing countries are also predicted to increase the size of their reserves,albeit by a more moderate rate of 1.1 percent,to 131.6 million tonnes.Within this group,after
327、 successive seasons of reserve reductions,China(mainland)and Indonesia could see their carry-overs expand.This is even if in China(mainland),the level of stock replenishment may be moderated by the restrained pace of production growth envisaged for the season,while in Indonesia,much of the forecast
328、increase would reflect a reconstitution of state reserves through increased domestic procurement and imports.Among other traditional importers,Iraq,the Republic of Korea,Malaysia,Nepal,Nigeria and the Philippines are all seen increasing their stocks at the close of their respective seasons,while res
329、erves could end lower in Bangladesh,Japan and Sri Lanka.Figure 7.Global closing stocks and stocks-to-use ratio05023/242021/222019/202017/182015/162013/million tonnes milled eq.percentRest of the worldChina(mainland)Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)fcastIndiaMarket assessments30FO
330、OD OUTLOOKJUNE 2023pressure in the United States of America and subdued global import demand,quotations were weighed by higher farmer sales from Argentina,following two rounds of the soy dollar scheme that provided favourable exchange rates to soybean producers.World soybean prices have declined fur
331、ther since March 2023,underpinned by prospects of a record harvest in Brazil that would more than compensate for considerably lower production in Argentina.Meanwhile,international rapeseed prices have been on a downward trajectory since May 2022,largely reflecting ample global supplies tied to abund
332、ant production across Australia,OILCROPS,OILS AND MEALS11 Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes,and to obtain cakes and meals that are used as feed ingredients.Therefore,rather than referring to oilseeds
333、,the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals.Production data for oils and meals are derived from domestic production of the relevant oilseeds in a specific year,i.e.they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crushing in a given country and period.Regarding oilseed trade,situations where oilseeds are produced in one country but crushed in a