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1、Quarterly Trend ReportGlobal Q2-2023Authors:FCM Consulting Global TeamFelicity BurkeAshley GutermuthJuan Antonio IglesiasAbout the ReportThis FCM Consulting quarterly report draws on global data sourced from FCM and Flight Centre Travel Group corporate booking data for travel during April to June 20

2、23(Q2-2023).The report uses Ciriumaviation schedule data as of August 8th,2023.Airfare pricing variations exclude all taxes.The hotel average room rate(ARR)quoted is the average booked rate using FCM and Flight Centre Travel Group corporate booking data.Variations in rates booked,are a reflection of

3、 seasonality,supply and demand,booking lead times,and variations in exchange rates.Unless otherwise stated all fares and rates are reported in US dollars.STR hotel data and content quoted as of August 9th,2023 for period ending June 2023.JET FUELPricing in H1-2023 continued to fall however H2-2023 s

4、hows early signs of rises COST OF TRAVELHow to make travel budgets stretch another mile or nightCORPORATENeed to KnowQ2-2023 saw two themes emerge.The northern hemisphere summer is pushing demand levels,while we saw other regions plateau.This edition of FCM Consultings Quarterly Trend Report places

5、the remainder of 2023 in the spotlight.Travel demand looks to moderate for H2-2023 as airline schedules and hotel rooms find their leveling with new normalized yields.Our Q2 report highlights the pockets of opportunities in supplier pricing and shifts in partnership opportunities to gain a different

6、 experience.SUSTAINABILITYHow do your preferred airlines rate in their shift to sustainability?POLICY TRENDSStabilized travel patterns meanpolicy resets for the medium termHYBRID WORKTalent retention,reduced office space,cost,and carbon reductions weigh in on corporate work DISRUPTIONSAs travel volu

7、mes return and plateau,air travel disruption remainsCORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeaways Q2-2023STRETCHING BUDGETSCorporations globally are traveling,on average,20%less than 2019.Thats one way to stretch a travel budget.Here are some others:Advance planning for value(an old strategy,ever valid in todays ma

8、rket).Use your TMC experts for simplifying complex itineraries&supplier contracts.Leverage booking technology to control budgets through price caps and filters.Explore new suppliers contract offers as commercial models are always changing.AVIATION FUELDuring Q2-2023,jet fuel prices shifted from$94 t

9、o$103 per barrel as the northern summer demand grew,and Asia travel strengthened,as reported by IATA.By early August 2023,pricing averaged$119 per barrel.Further rises are anticipated,as Asia travel demand grows into the remainder of H2-2023.THE LATEST METRICSGlenn Thorsen,FCM Consulting Sustainabil

10、ity Lead,has recently joined forces with CAPA(Centre for Aviation)and partner Envest Global.Using the latest market data and insights,we are helping corporations address their air travel environmental plans.Do you know the sustainability rankings of your airline partners?Glenn*has the answer.IATA Fu

11、el Monitor reported the week ending July 21st,2023,reporting in US$*Glenn Thorsen,e:glenn.thorseneu.fcm.travelCORPORATE TRAVELKey Takeaways Q2-2023DISRUPTION REMAINSAs we head into H2-2023,air travel disruption continues to impact travel plans.Extreme weather is the most frequent cause of air travel

12、 disruption,closely followed by airport staffing shortages,specifically air traffic controllers.Across Europe,Australia,and other parts of the world,air traffic controller staffing shortages are impacting 20-30%of flights daily,forcing airlines to reduce schedules and airports to create capacity cap

13、s.HYBRID WORKINGMcKinsey Global Institute reports“Hybrid work is here to stay”with a current average of three days a week in the office.This could change if labor market dynamics shift,or research shows relationships and productivity levels decline.Post-COVID,these are the hybrid facts:30%less offic

14、e attendance.7%of people moved from city to suburb.Corporate travelers need mixed use areas in hotels,airports,and train terminals so they can work in transit.POLICY TRENDSHaving a travel program thats relevant to todays internal and external influences means reviewing your policies and process regu

15、larly.Heres a summary of key updates in 2023:Defining traveler wellness.Engaging travelers in sustainability.Framing travel with purpose.Personal safety and business security.Smart budget and carbon management.Total booking consolidation.Engaging in technology uptake.AVIATIONKey Takeaways Q2-2023INT

16、ERNATIONAL LAGGINGGlobal domestic seats offered surpass 2019 volumes.Q3-2023 domestic seats offered are forecast to be+4.1%above 2019 volumes and international seats below by-7.5%.Q3-2023 vs Q3-2019DOMESTICINTERNATIONALAPAC+6.9%-22.5%EMEA-0.3%-2.7%LATAM+0.4%-0.6%NAM+3.1%-0.5%Report using all paid fa

17、res,all cabin classes,and all airlines for domestic travel within the countries listed.Data source Cirium August 9th,2023DOMESTIC FARESDomestic air travel demand is strong in most major markets.Airline competition,airline/airport staffing capability,economic climate,leisure travel discretionary spen

18、ding,and corporate travel budgets are some of the influences of airline supply,demand,and pricing.We analyzed average paid fares during Q2-2023.KEY DOMESTIC MARKETSQ2-2023 v Q2-2019AUSTRALIA+27%/+$28BRAZIL+2%/+$2CANADA+3%/+$5CHINA-1%/-$2FRANCE-6%/-$6GERMANY+21%/+$19INDIA+13%/+$9INDONESIA+19%/+$14JAP

19、AN+20%/+$20NEW ZEALAND+15%/+$14UNITED KINGDOM+1%/+$1UNITED STATES+9%/+$16AVIATION-GLOBALTRAVEL IS BACK0M100M200M300M400M500M600MJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecGLOBAL SEATSSEATS-MILLIONSFCM Consulting Analytics as of August 8th,2023Source Data:Cirium Air SeatsLong range aviation forecasts are su

20、bject to change.Therefore,we recommend only observing schedules 4-6 weeks ahead.2023 seat capacity is forecast to be-124M(-2.8%)down on 2019 seats.Q3-2023 is forecast to be-12.1M(-0.8%)less seats than Q3-2019.Regional seat capacity in 2023 vs 2019 is healthy,however varied.North America+2.7%Africa+1

21、.3%MEA+2.4%LATAM+0.1%Asia-4.0%Europe-5.6%Australasia-6.1%2022220232023 ForecastAIR CANADA84%AIR FRANCE87%AIR NEW ZEALAND94%AMERICAN AIRLINES99%BRITISH AIRWAYS88%CATHAY PACIFIC72%CHINA EASTERN103%DELTA AIRLINES95%EMIRATES86%ETIHAD AIRWAYS74%LATAM102%LUFTHANSA79%QANTAS AIRWAYS98%QATAR AIRWA

22、YS98%SINGAPORE AIRLINES97%SOUTH AFRICAN AIR.18%THAI AIRWAYS47%UNITED AIRLNES102%VIRGIN ATLANTIC97%VIRGIN AUSTRALIA88%Airline seats offered full calendar year 2023 compared to 2019.FCM Consulting Analytics as of August 8th,2023.Source Data:Cirium2023COMPARED TO 2019AIRLINE SEATFORECASTChina Eastern+3

23、%is now forecast to surpass its 2019 seats along with LATAM Airlines Group+2%and United Airlines+2%.The forecast across the 20 major airlines report a 93%return of seats in 2023 vs 2019,down-1%from our report in April-2023.We have seen only four of the major airlines increasing their 2023 schedules

24、since our Q1-2023 report:China Eastern,Qantas,Qatar,and Virgin Atlantic.INTERNATIONAL AIRFARE INCREASESAirfare%change reported YTD May 2023 vs 2019 same periodFCM Consulting Analytics as of August 8th,2023.Airfare variations exclude all taxes.Economy class excludes full Y class.Source Data:CiriumAUS

25、TRALIA/NEW ZEALAND27%19%LATIN AMERICA7%25%AFRICA16%20%ASIA19%19%15%17%EUROPEMIDDLE EAST29%17%NORTH AMERICA13%16%Average international airfares paid compared for the period YTD May 2023 vs 2019 same period,reported as a%increase or decrease 18%18%DISC ECONOMYBUSINESSAVERAGE GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL TICKE

26、T PRICEYTD MAY 2023 VS 2019BUSINESS CLASS$2280$341 VS 2019DISC ECONOMY CLASS$528$79 VS 2019The percentage variations are reporting international business and discounted economy class paid airfares,measured across 370 international city pairs.Each region reported summarizes the key countries within t

27、he region for international travel in and outside that region.GLOBAL AVERAGEINCREASE DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL AIRFARESAirfare%change in YTD May 2023 vs 2019 same periodAUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALANDECONOMYBUSINESSAKL-JFK7%27%AKL-SYD 15%15%MEL-SYD1%21%SIN-SYD 7%16%LAX-SYD7%13%LATIN AMERICAECONOMYBUSINESSCGH

28、-JFK 15%NACGH-LHR1%FLATEWR-SDU 23%7%FRA-SDU3%NASDU-YYZ 21%39%FCM Consulting Analytics as of August 8th,2023.Airfare variations exclude all taxes.Economy class excludes full Y class.Source Data:CiriumASIAECONOMYBUSINESSSHA-SIN 11%37%BOM-DEL 15%3%BOM-LHR 21%20%PVG-SIN 10%20%LAX-PEK2%8%MIDDLE EAST/AFRI

29、CAECONOMYBUSINESSCPT-DXB3%42%DXB-FRA 23%31%DXB-SYD 14%18%FRA-JNB 14%13%JNB-LHR 11%12%NORTH AMERICAECONOMYBUSINESSBOS-PVG 7%3%EWR-ORD 31%7%FRA-JFK 14%8%JFK-LAX 33%1%JFK-YYCFLAT 10%EUROPEECONOMYBUSINESSDUB-LHR 12%26%FRA-MAD9%6%JFK-LHR 12%7%LHR-MAD 12%7%LHR-PVG5%6%NORTHERN SUMMERFrom Q1-2023 to Q2-2023

30、 the regional hotel ARR increased across:Europe,+$24(+12%),North America,+$21(+5%),and Latin America+$4(+3%).Reductions were observed in Asia-$2(-2%),and MEA-$24(-19%),with Australasia rates remaining flat.Early forecast into H2-2023 indicate ARRs remain stable,with select cities seeing rate decline

31、s as hotels look to attract corporate and leisure travelers.CONSOLIDATED&COUNTINGAs corporations set net zero targets across Scope 1,2,and 3 emissions,the growing conversation is making sure you have consolidated,accurate,and accessible carbon reporting.Corporate travel CO2reporting is a must to acc

32、urately report to Scope 3 emissions.Dont forget to update your travel policy to mandate all hotel bookings through your TMC for consolidated and accurate CO2reporting.2024 CONTRACTINGWe have taken a deep dive into the new hotel contracts that corporate procurement teams are exploring for their 2024

33、hotel RFP process:Fixed rates that meet budgets Properties making changes and guiding guests to be part of their ESG journey Guest technology during stay Data privacy and security Mixed-use zones in hotel public areas EV recharging options Contracts bookable via GDS and TMCACCOMMODATION Key Takeaway

34、s Q2-2023This alone is not the only benefit of consolidating your hotel bookings through your TMC.We know,you know,you love consolidating your hotel bookings to leverage travel spend.Consolidating bookings also enables you to track travelers in an emergency,provide your travelers a one-stop-shop exp

35、erience,gain insights into your travelers changing preferences,track your supplier compliance,and keep your trips within budget.Source:STR.2022 CoStar GroupOver 100%80 100%50-79%Under 50%Global occupancy for YTD June 2023 was 63.6%which is 96%recovered to 2019 same period.OCCUPANCY REBOUNDS ACROSS K

36、EY GLOBAL MARKETSCity occupancy recovery reported as a percentage comparison of hoteloccupancy(STD),indexed to 2019,vs June YTD 2023Data sourcing STR.For more information:Source:STR.2022 CoStar GroupAVERAGE DAILY RATES LEISURE&CORPORATEOver$100$80$100Average Daily Rate,indexed to YTD 2019,June YTD 2

37、023Data sourcing STR.For more information:$Average Daily Rate 2023 vs 2019$229LOS ANGELES$315 VANCOUVER$410BOSTON$280=TORONTO$147EDMONTON$219OTTAWA$436NEW YORK$174MEXICO CITY$225 CHICAGO$289SEATTLE$245 DENVER$179DALLAS$238ATLANTA$231MIAMIClick to add textNORTHAMERICAAccommodationQ2-2023Corporate Tra

38、velAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vsQ1-2023 5%Q2-2022 3%$USDSTRONG DEMAND PUSHING REGIONAL ARR UP BY+$21 DURING Q2 VS Q1-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 CHICAGO4%LOS ANGELES 29%NEW YORK17%MEXICO CITY 13%VANCOUVER 35%$344LAS VEGAS$141PHOENIX$320WASHINGTON DCRATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023$183 BUENOS AIRES$

39、158RIO$57 SALVADOR$152 SANTIAGO$63BOGOTA$126LIMA$95QUITO$159CARTAGENA$196SANTA CRUZ$105SAO PAULO$159SAN JUANLATIN AMERICAAccommodationQ2-2023RATE VOLATILITY CALMS SEEING A MINOR REGIONAL RATE INCREASE OF+$4 COMPARED TO Q1-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 BUENOS AIRES7%LIMA 28%RIO 11%SANTIAGO 11%SAO P

40、AULO4%Corporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vsQ1-2023 3%Q2-2022 37%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023ASIAAccommodationQ2-2023MINOR RATE CHANGES ACROSS THE REGION IN Q2 SEEING-$2 ARR REDUCTION FROM Q1-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 CHENNAI5%HANOI1%MANILA4%KUALA LUMPUR1%SHANGHAI4%SINGAPORE4%$286T

41、OKYO$175BEIJING$170JAKARTA$123GUANGZHOU$140SHANGHAI$246HONG KONG$153HANOI$160MANILA$132BANGKOK$222TAIPEI$202SEOUL$146BANGALORE$101CHENNAI$120DELHI$260SINGAPORE$107=KUALA LUMPURCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vsQ1-2023 2%Q2-2022 22%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023AUSTRALIA&NEW ZEALANDAcco

42、mmodationQ2-2023IN Q2 THE REGIONAL ARR PLATEAUED WITH A+$1 INCREASE FROM Q1-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 ADELAIDE 3%AUCKLAND5%KALGOORLIE 16%MELBOURNE3%SYDNEY9%WELLINGTON3%$186SYDNEY$181MELBOURNE$168PERTH$167BRISBANE$180DARWIN$157ADELAIDE$125HOBART$172CANBERRA$132QUEENSTOWN$208AUCKLAND$139CAIRNS$1

43、78WELLINGTON$137CHRISTCHURCH$157P.MORESBY$185KALGOORLIE$159ORANGE$140GERALDTONCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vsQ1-2023 1%Q2-2022 3%$USDRATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023EUROPEAccommodationQ2-2023$178FRANKFURT$272PARIS$253DUBLIN$306 LONDON$191MADRID$116=ABERDEEN$163MANCHESTER$258AMSTERDAM$157M

44、OSCOW$219ISTANBUL$121BUCHAREST$237MILAN$182BERLIN$165BUDAPEST$230STOCKHOLM$237OSLO$177MUNICHCorporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vs$USDHEADING INTO A NORTHERN SUMMER THE ARR ROSE+$24 IN Q2-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 AMSTERDAM 13%BERLIN5%DUBLIN 9%FRANKFURT5%LONDON12%MADRID3%Q1-2023 12%Q

45、2-2022 7%$168GOTHENBURG$219=BRUSSELS$137ZURICH$238BARCELONA$236ATHENS$141PORTORATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAAccommodationQ2-2023OVERALL REGIONAL Q2 ARR REDUCES-$24 AFTER PEAK RATES IN Q1-2023.RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023 ABU DHABI 23%CAIRO 52%CAPE TOWN 71%DUBAI 10%JOHANNESBURG 18%RIY

46、ADH8%Corporate TravelAverage Rate Paid%Var.Q2-2023 vs$USD$98JOHANNESBURG$229NAIROBI$173CAIRO$251LAGOS$250 RIYADH$317DUBAI$142DOHA$186ABIDJAN$208RABAT$130LUANDA$303=TEL AVIV$111CAPE TOWN$211ABU DHABI$123WINDHOEK$122GABORONEQ1-2023 19%Q2-2022 2%RATE COMPARISON TO Q1-2023More InformationFCM ConsultingT

47、his report was prepared by the FCM Consulting Analytics team,which forms part of FCM.All materials presented in this report,unless specifically indicated otherwise,is under copyright and proprietary to FCM.Information contained herein,including projections,has been obtained from materials and source

48、s believed to be reliable at the date of publication.Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance,accuracy,completeness,and currency of the information of this publication.This report is presented for information purposes only.All rights to the material are reserved and none of

49、the material,nor its content,nor any copy of it,may be altered in any way,transmitted to,copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of FCM.Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of this report is prohibited.FCM will not be liable for any loss,damage,cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.To learn more about FCM C potential with